Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (3 Viewers)

[jtd13]

How do people view the Jets WR's?  Enunwa could have sleeper potential.  Anderson was arrested and seems to be trouble, although talented.  And Pryor is risky but he did have a great year in Cleveland of all places and then fell on his face in Washington.  If you're taking a shot on one of these guys, who is it going to be?  

I expect them to address this issue next year, but any one of these guys could be the #2 long term to a young QB, I think there is value in that especially for where theese guys are being drafted.  




3

I like Anderson, but he obviously can't be trusted. He seems to have dodged another bullet this offseason with all the felony charges from the last 2 years dropped, but I'd still expect some suspension (my bet is 2 games). He's tall, fast, and can track the ball really well downfield, so if a long-term starter is on the team right now, I think it is Anderson. On value, he's the same as a guy like Martavis Bryant to me. I'll take a chance on the upside in the late-2nd if I need a WR after guys like Gallup and Patton are gone. 

Enunwa is intriguing, He could settle back into the TE/Slot role he had that got him a lot of targets in 2016. With the injury and his low draft capital, I think he's a lotto ticket, but I'd pay an early 4th in PPR. 

Pryor and Kearse are poops. Hansen is probably the most interesting one remaining, but that's only in deep PPR. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

How do people view the Jets WR's?  Enunwa could have sleeper potential.  Anderson was arrested and seems to be trouble, although talented.  And Pryor is risky but he did have a great year in Cleveland of all places and then fell on his face in Washington.  If you're taking a shot on one of these guys, who is it going to be?  

I expect them to address this issue next year, but any one of these guys could be the #2 long term to a young QB, I think there is value in that especially for where theese guys are being drafted.  

Obviously the situation is not cut and dried which is why you are even asking but as a Jets fan I will offer my best observations. I'd rank them this way:

1. Robby Anderson - he's certainly a knucklehead but it looks like he got lucky legally with these last two transgressions and will be cleared of all but misdemeanors. This of course does not mean a suspension from the league isn't forthcoming or that going forward he'll be a good citizen. He's a playmaker with very good deep speed and plays much stronger fighting for the ball than his appearance belies (he is a bean-pole physically). He had a great rapport with McCown last year and was the only WR hat made Bryce Petty even look close to being a competent QB. He should be the Jets No. 1 WR (although he's best suited as a No. 2) and should clear 1,000 yards with no suspension and health.

2. Terrell Pryor - This ranking is based on his athleticism and upside. Frankly I don't think he's a very good WR and only put up numbers because Kessler force fed him the ball as there were no other options in Cleveland. I wasn't terribly excited about this signing but hopefully Jeremy Bates is creative enough to find non-traditional ways to incorporate him into the game plan.

3. Quincy Enunwa - He's coming off a pretty devastating neck injury so hopefully he's completely healthy. He has very good size and surprising speed for his size but his one season of productivity came where he was a pseudo-TE and seeing heavy targets because Marshall and Decker were both banged up. This was the season the glass slipper broke for Ryan Fitzpatrick and he turned back into a pumpkin - but one thing he was still willing to do was force the ball into bad spots and let his WR fight for it. Enunwa was much bigger and stronger than the slot corners covering him. My guess is the he continues in the slot which could be a good thing for him if/when Darnold takes over but if McCown remains the QB for a while he'll throw it up to Anderson and Pryor downfield.

Don't forget Jermaine Kearse is still around who started off last season really hot and had a connection with McCown as well. I don't see the Jets having some outstanding passing attack so Anderson would be the only guy I can see having weekly fantasy relevance but even that may be iffy. 

 

[Hankmoody]

Anderson's talent is real.  I don't care about the risk factors, at his current price they are well worth the gamble.  He was WR13 through week 13 which is how long he had Josh McCown at QB.  The whole offense obviously tanked after that with Petty at QB.  No one on that team is going to take targets from him, the only real risk is that Darnold and he don't gel.  Anderson is practically free right now, too bad I already own him on 4/5 teams but at least I can go get him in that last one.

 

[FF Ninja]

I have Enunwa in one league, picked him up from waivers a few years ago and the league is deep enough where it's not worth dropping him. I view him as a bye week fill in, equal to Cole, Jordan Matthews, and for now Taywan Taylor (I have higher hopes for TT).  If someone offered me an upgrade from another player and he was the cost, I'd likely jump all over it.

Anderson in another, I view him as a hopeful starter but with zero confidence. I'm probably holding for now but he has the highest upside of the Jets receivers.

I'm hoping you start 4 WRs in a 16 team league. I would not want to go into the season with any of those guys as my bye week fill in (12 team leagues).

Like you, I like TT the best out of that group, but zero of those guys should be in a starting lineup at any point this year without an injury to someone ahead of them on the depth chart. The best case scenario for most of them is to be the WR3 on their NFL team which rarely translates to better than fantasy WR5 numbers. 

 

[FF Ninja]

Anderson's talent is real.  I don't care about the risk factors, at his current price they are well worth the gamble.  He was WR13 through week 13 which is how long he had Josh McCown at QB.  The whole offense obviously tanked after that with Petty at QB.  No one on that team is going to take targets from him, the only real risk is that Darnold and he don't gel.  Anderson is practically free right now, too bad I already own him on 4/5 teams but at least I can go get him in that last one.

I'll admit Robby has been in my blindspot. I'd kind of chalked his performance up to last man standing on a team trailing a lot. Kind of like Aiken a few years ago but with more garbage time. Some lazy analysis on my part. This post made me have a look and through week 13, he had 12 games played with 86 targets for 49/821/7 which extrapolates to 65/1095/9. And the garbage time wasn't nearly as bad as I was assuming. The TD/catch and YPR will be hard to reproduce, his QB situation is up in the air a bit, and he's got better competition for targets this season... but at his current price (~WR58) and age (25.0), I gotta agree with Hank that his low price makes the risk factors worth the gamble. 

 

[Pwingles]

What is McCaffrey’s value in terms of WRs in a PPR league?

I wouldnt accept any wr that doesnt project to get around 80+ catches with upside on top of that because that is about where CMC will be, if not better.

*Edit

after looking at some DLF rankings, id put the cutoff somewhere at their wr10 area.

they have adams, green, cooper, hill, robinson ranked 8-12 but I feel like theyre fairly close together value wise. obvious tier break from green to cooper tho

 

[Dan Hindery]

I wouldnt accept any wr that doesnt project to get around 80+ catches with upside on top of that because that is about where CMC will be, if not better.

*Edit

after looking at some DLF rankings, id put the cutoff somewhere at their wr10 area.

they have adams, green, cooper, hill, robinson ranked 8-12 but I feel like theyre fairly close together value wise. obvious tier break from green to cooper tho

I think I'd prefer Adams to CMac but would take McCaffrey over Green, Cooper, etc. 

 

[Pwingles]

I think I'd prefer Adams to CMac but would take McCaffrey over Green, Cooper, etc. 

agree 100% personally

I could see a contender needing wr help swapping for green, but not for cooper or hill

 

[menobrown]

I could see a contender needing wr help swapping for green, but not for cooper or hill

Funny you should post this. I got a contending team, probably the favorite, and I already have Green on the team and last week made exactly two trade offers where I offered CMC straight up for Hill and straight up for Cooper, different owners. Got rejected, no counter.  FFPC leagues.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

agree 100% personally

I could see a contender needing wr help swapping for green, but not for cooper or hill

I wouldn't trade Hill for McCaffrey in the two leagues I own Hill. I don't think I'd trade Cooper for him either in the league I own Cooper but that one would make me think at least.

 

[Pwingles]

I wouldn't trade Hill for McCaffrey in the two leagues I own Hill. I don't think I'd trade Cooper for him either in the league I own Cooper but that one would make me think at least.

Well this makes sense to me, I feel they are in a similar tier in overall dynasty value. In a post above I laid out the type of players id need to trade CMC for. If you own one of these players in this tier, and you dont have a glaring positional need, I would understand not swapping them unless you just had a preference.

 

[mcintyre1]

Just to provide a little bit of context on Enunwa as a Husker fan, I was shocked when Enunwa had that good season/stretch of games. He's certainly good enough to be in the NFL, but I never figured him to make any kind of splash. I thought he'd have a career similar to Niles Paul as a beefy WR/TE tweener. Heck, Niles Paul was the better prospect, IMO. 

All I really know about Robby Anderson is that the guy who had him in one of my leagues was absolutely desperate to cash in on that season. I (nor anyone else) ended up taking the bait on it. 

Before Pryor had the ankle injury again this offseason, I was probably aiming to get him as my Jets WR lotto ticket.

 

[Pwingles]

Funny you should post this. I got a contending team, probably the favorite, and I already have Green on the team and last week made exactly two trade offers where I offered CMC straight up for Hill and straight up for Cooper, different owners. Got rejected, no counter.  FFPC leagues.

Ya, that is a weird coincidence.

Again, like i said above, prolly just a preference thing amongst players of similar value.

Known commodity vs unknown, maybe they have invested too much time or capital in those players to move them? Who knows.

 

[menobrown]

Ya, that is a weird coincidence.

Again, like i said above, prolly just a preference thing amongst players of similar value.

Known commodity vs unknown, maybe they have invested too much time or capital in those players to move them? Who knows.

My team is kind of deep all over but deepest at RB so that plays part for sure on my end where I'm not looking for positions, I'm looking for what I think is the best player. Majority of teams in fantasy seem to need RB the most so I can see where that would elevate CMC.

I would not classify Hill or Cooper as being any more know/unknown, proven/unproven than CMC myself.

Here is how I view CMC, it's a breakdown I do sometimes on players, a breakdown of ranges. Before I get into that I know bias plays a part with some people. I just want to say CMC is on this team because I picked him at 1.2 of my rookie draft last year.  I drafted CMC in mid  round 2 of my largest entry fee redraft league last year. I don't come into this conversation with some kind of CMC negative bias, loved him coming into the league.

Start with what we know. CMC is 14.35 PPG guy in PPR, RB8 in total points not using week 17 and RB12 in PPG over that span. By all definitions a low end RB1.

I don't try and predict the unpredictable. I don't factor in injury risk(which for him is low). He is young and won't be tied to the hip with Cam, Norv, and possibly not Carolina for his career but I can't really factor in what his supporting cast will look like 4+ years down the road so I'm looking at him in prism of ignoring injuries and he'll play his career in a similar supporting cast.

Here are my 5 basic ranges for him:

1. He's going to produce rushing stats that offer as much production as his passing stats. This would put him as 22+PPG kind of producer, getting  into that Bell kind of area and basically what we'd all view as a top 3-5 fantasy RB.

2. He'll pick up the rushing totals, let's say double the statistical output in rushing and his moves him into a 18 PPG range, which typically will have him hovering as a mid RB1, in that 5-8 kind of area most years.

3. He is what he is, high volume pass catcher with a little rushing. Think prime Danny Woodhead.

4. He'll suffer a slight regression in passing stats, as 80 is a high level to maintain and he does have a new OC. He won't pick up the rushing totals, just slight regression in passing stats and therefore a slight regression in production, like a 10-20% fantasy drop that makes him more of a mid to low end RB2. A 60-70 catch, 300-400 rushing type of guy.

5. He'll be used sparingly on first/second down, more as pure passing down back, weapon, drop down into 10 PPG kind of range, thinking in terms of a year like Theo Riddick has last year.

If I ranked those based on what I think is his most likely outcome I'd rank them this  way:

4

3

2

5

1

When I do this type of exercise for Hill or Cooper it's a lot more positive looking. That's how I see it anyway.

 

[Pwingles]

My team is kind of deep all over but deepest at RB so that plays part for sure on my end where I'm not looking for positions, I'm looking for what I think is the best player. Majority of teams in fantasy seem to need RB the most so I can see where that would elevate CMC.

I would not classify Hill or Cooper as being any more know/unknown, proven/unproven than CMC myself.

Here is how I view CMC, it's a breakdown I do sometimes on players, a breakdown of ranges. Before I get into that I know bias plays a part with some people. I just want to say CMC is on this team because I picked him at 1.2 of my rookie draft last year.  I drafted CMC in mid  round 2 of my largest entry fee redraft league last year. I don't come into this conversation with some kind of CMC negative bias, loved him coming into the league.

Start with what we know. CMC is 14.35 PPG guy in PPR, RB8 in total points not using week 17 and RB12 in PPG over that span. By all definitions a low end RB1.

I don't try and predict the unpredictable. I don't factor in injury risk(which for him is low). He is young and won't be tied to the hip with Cam, Norv, and possibly not Carolina for his career but I can't really factor in what his supporting cast will look like 4+ years down the road so I'm looking at him in prism of ignoring injuries and he'll play his career in a similar supporting cast.

Here are my 5 basic ranges for him:

1. He's going to produce rushing stats that offer as much production as his passing stats. This would put him as 22+PPG kind of producer, getting  into that Bell kind of area and basically what we'd all view as a top 3-5 fantasy RB.

2. He'll pick up the rushing totals, let's say double the statistical output in rushing and his moves him into a 18 PPG range, which typically will have him hovering as a mid RB1, in that 5-8 kind of area most years.

3. He is what he is, high volume pass catcher with a little rushing. Think prime Danny Woodhead.

4. He'll suffer a slight regression in passing stats, as 80 is a high level to maintain and he does have a new OC. He won't pick up the rushing totals, just slight regression in passing stats and therefore a slight regression in production, like a 10-20% fantasy drop that makes him more of a mid to low end RB2. A 60-70 catch, 300-400 rushing type of guy.

5. He'll be used sparingly on first/second down, more as pure passing down back, weapon, drop down into 10 PPG kind of range, thinking in terms of a year like Theo Riddick has last year.

If I ranked those based on what I think is his most likely outcome I'd rank them this  way:

4

3

2

5

1

When I do this type of exercise for Hill or Cooper it's a lot more positive looking. That's how I see it anyway.

I think what i meant was, the asset you have and are comfortable with versus something else. I tend to keep my guy in the trade proposals where the other side is a guy in the same tier (at least in my opinion), I prefer to stay with what i know versus making a lateral move.

To your point about him being used sparingly on 1-2 down, im not so sure. I feel they will find ways to use him on any down if they find a potential match up to exploit.

 

[menobrown]

To your point about him being used sparingly on 1-2 down, im not so sure. I feel they will find ways to use him on any down if they find a potential match up to exploit.

Less of a point and more of a  possible outcome which I listed as least likely, but one I think is for sure possible.

 

[-OZ-]

I'm hoping you start 4 WRs in a 16 team league. I would not want to go into the season with any of those guys as my bye week fill in (12 team leagues).

Like you, I like TT the best out of that group, but zero of those guys should be in a starting lineup at any point this year without an injury to someone ahead of them on the depth chart. The best case scenario for most of them is to be the WR3 on their NFL team which rarely translates to better than fantasy WR5 numbers. 

Yep. 4x16 plus 1 possible flex. But that's off subject. 

 

[FF Ninja]

Yep. 4x16 plus 1 possible flex. But that's off subject. 

It drastically changes the expected fantasy points of a bye week filler, so it is important context.

A legit bye week filler in a league that starts a minimum of 64 WRs (and a maximum of 80) every week is a back of the bench scrub in a league that only starts 36 WRs every week.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I think @menobrown's #4 and #5 are by far the most likely scenarios for McCaffrey long-term.  I see people saying things like they expect McCaffrey to keep doing what he did this year or that he "projects out" to keep doing it, which seems crazy to me.  How can you project someone (who wasn't even that efficient at doing it) out to do something that basically only one player in NFL history has done, and none in the last 20 years.  I'm talking about a consistent fantasy RB1 long-term as a part time pass catching RB.  Larry Centers is about the only guy that's even come close.

The excuses are already built in for McCaffrey.  New OC, better RB along side him than last year.  But it's just excuses, even without those, it seems unlikely to me that three years from now we're talking about a guy still in the fantasy RB1/RB2 conversation.

It would be one thing if he was at least exceptional at it on the field, like Kamara was.  But McCaffrey wasn't very dynamic last year with the ball in his hands, and his efficiency was no better than a world of other similar backs that slid back into barely relevant fantasy territory.

And for that matter, this is really interesting to me.

Rushing
Duke: 82-348-4, 4.2 YPC
CMC: 117-435-2, 3.7 YPC

Receiving
Duke: 74-693-3, 9.4 YPR, 7.45 YPT, 79.5% catch rate
CMC: 80-651-5, 8.1 YPR, 5.76 YPT, 70.8% catch rate

ADP
Duke: 91
CMC: 18

Duke was basically a better Christian McCaffrey last year, yet people are rushing to buy McCaffrey at 4x the price.  I get the draft capital argument and the idea that means they are more committed to CMC, but that only lasts so long.  I think his draft capital means they might force feed him for another year, but beyond that if he doesn't drastically improve his efficiency, I don't think it will last.

And then there is this...

Riddick 2015: 80-697-3, 8.7 YPR, 7.04 YPT, 80.8% catch rate
CMC 2017: 80-651-5, 8.1 YPR, 5.76 YPT, 70.8% catch rate

All that for 2nd round startup value?  Worst.  Buy.  Ever.

 

[Cobbler1]

I think @menobrown's #4 and #5 are by far the most likely scenarios for McCaffrey long-term.  I see people saying things like they expect McCaffrey to keep doing what he did this year or that he "projects out" to keep doing it, which seems crazy to me.  How can you project someone (who wasn't even that efficient at doing it) out to do something that basically only one player in NFL history has done, and none in the last 20 years.  I'm talking about a consistent fantasy RB1 long-term as a part time pass catching RB.  Larry Centers is about the only guy that's even come close.

The excuses are already built in for McCaffrey.  New OC, better RB along side him than last year.  But it's just excuses, even without those, it seems unlikely to me that three years from now we're talking about a guy still in the fantasy RB1/RB2 conversation.

It would be one thing if he was at least exceptional at it on the field, like Kamara was.  But McCaffrey wasn't very dynamic last year with the ball in his hands, and his efficiency was no better than a world of other similar backs that slid back into barely relevant fantasy territory.

And for that matter, this is really interesting to me.

Rushing
Duke: 82-348-4, 4.2 YPC
CMC: 117-435-2, 3.7 YPC

Receiving
Duke: 74-693-3, 9.4 YPR, 7.45 YPT, 79.5% catch rate
CMC: 80-651-5, 8.1 YPR, 5.76 YPT, 70.8% catch rate

ADP
Duke: 91
CMC: 18

Duke was basically a better Christian McCaffrey last year, yet people are rushing to buy McCaffrey at 4x the price.  I get the draft capital argument and the idea that means they are more committed to CMC, but that only lasts so long.  I think his draft capital means they might force feed him for another year, but beyond that if he doesn't drastically improve his efficiency, I don't think it will last.

And then there is this...

Riddick 2015: 80-697-3, 8.7 YPR, 7.04 YPT, 80.8% catch rate
CMC 2017: 80-651-5, 8.1 YPR, 5.76 YPT, 70.8% catch rate

All that for 2nd round startup value?  Worst.  Buy.  Ever.

I’m certainly not taking a pro CMC stance here as I agree he didn’t look like anything special as a rookie but I don’t think it does CMC justice to compare his rookie season as a 21 year old to the 3rd year of those players in their age 24 seasons. 

 

[Buckna]

I wouldnt accept any wr that doesnt project to get around 80+ catches with upside on top of that because that is about where CMC will be, if not better.

*Edit

after looking at some DLF rankings, id put the cutoff somewhere at their wr10 area.

they have adams, green, cooper, hill, robinson ranked 8-12 but I feel like theyre fairly close together value wise. obvious tier break from green to cooper tho

I like McCaffrey but this is way too rosy an outlook, 70+ catches and we're talking a lot more probable but still statistically unlikely that he does that more than 1 more time for his career. But that also lowers him down in the comparable WR tier range too IMO.

80+ range you're basically saying he's going to be Marshall Faulk or Larry Centers, who are the only two RB's to ever catch 80+ balls in more than 2 seasons in their entire career. LT, Sproles, Westbrook, Forte, Woodhead, SJax, none of those guys managed to do it more than once. The only other RB to catch 80+ in more than one season in the last 30 years is Bell.

 

[menobrown]

80+ range you're basically saying he's going to be Marshall Faulk or Larry Centers, who are the only two RB's to ever catch 80+ balls in more than 2 seasons in their entire career. LT, Sproles, Westbrook, Forte, Woodhead, SJax, none of those guys managed to do it more than once. The only other RB to catch 80+ in more than one season in the last 30 years is Bell.

Bell has done it 2 out of 4 seasons since his rookie year and the two years he did not one was a 75 catch total in 13 games and the other season he only played 6 games.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Bell has done it 2 out of 4 seasons since his rookie year and the two years he did not one was a 75 catch total in 13 games and the other season he only played 6 games.

3 down backs have a much better history of maintaining that high receiving production than pass catching specialists do. 

 

[menobrown]

3 down backs have a much better history of maintaining that high receiving production than pass catching specialists do. 

I think it's based on more system and of course the skills of the back. Reggie averaged about 9.5 fantasy points per game in his Saints career just on receiving. Sproles close to 12 in his Saints career. That's 8 years between the two of them and neither were close to 3 down backs. Rest assured Kamara will blow by 80 this year, only injuries will keep him from that total but he'll blow past 5 receptions a game.

It's the system more to me then being a 3 down back. That's in a nutshell my concern with McCaffrey. They drafted him to change the system to give Cam easier throws and now that system is gone. That's a freaking major concern I've sort of been surprised more McCaffrey owners are not fretting about. And sure Shula has never been some mastermind OC and Norv has produced some outstanding RB years but he is going to run his system, not the system the Panthers tried to change to last year.  To your point Norv normally likes a 3 down back and I can't recall when his offense has produced a high receiving total for a back that was not a 3 down back, even using the Sproles example from earlier he did not break out until he left Norv.

If Mike Shula was returning as OC I would have zero concerns about his receiving production. In his case it's all about the system change that gives me pause.

 

[Concept Coop]

I like McCaffrey but this is way too rosy an outlook, 70+ catches and we're talking a lot more probable but still statistically unlikely that he does that more than 1 more time for his career. But that also lowers him down in the comparable WR tier range too IMO.

80+ range you're basically saying he's going to be Marshall Faulk or Larry Centers, who are the only two RB's to ever catch 80+ balls in more than 2 seasons in their entire career. LT, Sproles, Westbrook, Forte, Woodhead, SJax, none of those guys managed to do it more than once. The only other RB to catch 80+ in more than one season in the last 30 years is Bell.

This reminds me of the Cam Newton debate. Folks argued he couldn’t do X rushing TDs because it hadn’t been done before. Newton wasn’t used like a traditional QB in the same way McCaffrey (Kamara) isn’t used like a traditional RB. Newton of course went on to smash the career QB rushing TD record in just 6 seasons. McCaffrey (Kamara) is going to have a few 80 catch seasons - and that doesn’t make him Marshall Faulk.

 

[Concept Coop]

3 down backs have a much better history of maintaining that high receiving production than pass catching specialists do. 

McCaffrey ran 448 routes last season. "3 down RBs" don't do that. As of November (season totals behind paywall) 15% of his snaps came out of the slot and another 9% split out wide. We have to adjust our projections to match the utilization. He's a new kind of beast in a league increasing willing to maximize his talents. I don't think it makes sense to compare him to backs who weren't used as he is. (Again, in the same way it didn't make sense to use past QBs to establish Newton's rushing baseline.)

 

[FreeBaGeL]

McCaffrey ran 448 routes last season. "3 down RBs" don't do that. As of November (season totals behind paywall) 15% of his snaps came out of the slot and another 9% split out wide. We have to adjust our projections to match the utilization. He's a new kind of beast in a league increasing willing to maximize his talents. I don't think it makes sense to compare him to backs who weren't used as he is. (Again, in the same way it didn't make sense to use past QBs to establish Newton's rushing baseline.)

Wait, so we have meh efficiency matched with outlier volume and that's a good thing?

What percentage of Theo Riddick's snaps in 2015 came from the slot?  I'm guessing it was a good amount considering a quick search involves a lot of chatter that he was lining up there enough that people were questioning if he would actually have his position changed to WR.

He's not a new kind of beast.  He's a receiving running back, of which there have been many, and last year he wasn't even a particularly good one.  Now the OC that gave him that outlier volume is gone.  That's not something I want a piece of at 2nd round startup value.

 

[Concept Coop]

Wait, so we have meh efficiency matched with outlier volume and that's a good thing?

What percentage of Theo Riddick's snaps in 2015 came from the slot?  I'm guessing it was a good amount considering a quick search involves a lot of chatter that he was lining up there enough that people were questioning if he would actually have his position changed to WR.

He's not a new kind of beast.  He's a receiving running back, of which there have been many, and last year he wasn't even a particularly good one.  Now the OC that gave him that outlier volume is gone.  That's not something I want a piece of at 2nd round startup value.

He got the 2nd highest PFF receiving grade for a back ever. Production doesn't happen in a vacuum. 

I don't mean he's a different kind of beast in the way that Barkley is. I'm referring to utilization. He ran 80 more routes that the next highest rookie back in (PFF kept) history (Reggie Bush). There's no sign that Carolina was anything but thrilled with what he did out of the backfield or want to use him any differently moving forward. Norv's said as much. 

To your point, if Duke was married to that situation for 4 years I'd be a lot higher on him than I am. (I don't want either guy in the 2nd round.) But it's not really fair to compare their production this year without context. CAR experienced a net positive, in terms of game flow. Obviously the Browns were awful. Garbage time does a lot for receiving backs.

I only mean to argue against using past backs to establish McCaffrey's baseline. I'm not buying at his current price and think the previous talk of him being a 3 down back looks silly now. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

He got the 2nd highest PFF receiving grade for a back ever. Production doesn't happen in a vacuum. 

Do you have a link for this?  I ask because in every efficiency metric I could find he was below average relative to recent receiving backs.  And he looked pretty terrible out there most of the season.  Once he got the ball in space you could tackle him with a sneeze.

I don't mean he's a different kind of beast in the way that Barkley is. I'm referring to utilization. He ran 80 more routes that the next highest rookie back in (PFF kept) history (Reggie Bush).

You keep saying this like a good thing.  He ran an outlier number of routes and was inefficient with them.  That's a bad thing because when you're inefficient with high volume you generally lose that outlier volume, regardless of summer coach speak.  And that's even before we consider the OC change. 

Even worse is that...

There's no sign that Carolina was anything but thrilled with what he did out of the backfield or want to use him any differently moving forward. Norv's said as much. 

To your point, if Duke was married to that situation for 4 years I'd be a lot higher on him than I am. (I don't want either guy in the 2nd round.) But it's not really fair to compare their production this year without context. CAR experienced a net positive, in terms of game flow. Obviously the Browns were awful. Garbage time does a lot for receiving backs.

Carolina was 28th in the NFL in passing last year, which was not only really bad, but was down 7 spots from the year before.  How happy can they be with a passing offense that features McCaffrey dropping them down to one of the 5 worst passing offenses in the league? 

 

[Concept Coop]

Do you have a link for this?  I ask because in every efficiency metric I could find he was below average relative to recent receiving backs.  And he looked pretty terrible out there most of the season.  Once he got the ball in space you could tackle him with a sneeze.

You keep saying this like a good thing.  He ran an outlier number of routes and was inefficient with them.  That's a bad thing because when you're inefficient with high volume you generally lose that outlier volume, regardless of summer coach speak.  And that's even before we consider the OC change. 

Even worse is that...

Carolina was 28th in the NFL in passing last year, which was not only really bad, but was down 7 spots from the year before.  How happy can they be with a passing offense that features McCaffrey dropping them down to one of the 5 worst passing offenses in the league? 

It's the second best ever for a rookie. My mistake. ...and earned an elite PFF receiving grade of 90.5, the second-highest ever recorded by a rookie running back.

 

[menobrown]

It's the second best ever for a rookie. My mistake. ...and earned an elite PFF receiving grade of 90.5, the second-highest ever recorded by a rookie running back.

I have a really hard time seeing how they reached that conclusion, sure hope for their sake they at least had Kamara at #1.

 

[voiceofunreason]

It's the second best ever for a rookie. My mistake. ...and earned an elite PFF receiving grade of 90.5, the second-highest ever recorded by a rookie running back.

I’m guessing this has little to do with running after the catch. Because it seems crazy high otherwise. In my mind he either improves a lot in that area or his targets go down a fair amount.

 

[Biabreakable]

Do you have a link for this?  I ask because in every efficiency metric I could find he was below average relative to recent receiving backs.  And he looked pretty terrible out there most of the season.  Once he got the ball in space you could tackle him with a sneeze.

You keep saying this like a good thing.  He ran an outlier number of routes and was inefficient with them.  That's a bad thing because when you're inefficient with high volume you generally lose that outlier volume, regardless of summer coach speak.  And that's even before we consider the OC change. 

Even worse is that...

Carolina was 28th in the NFL in passing last year, which was not only really bad, but was down 7 spots from the year before.  How happy can they be with a passing offense that features McCaffrey dropping them down to one of the 5 worst passing offenses in the league? 

While you make some good points I think you should recognize that McCaffrey was a rookie. Efficiency stats usually do not solidify themselves until a players second and subsequent seasons. I usually throw out rookie numbers on players whenever I can because those numbers are often very different than their career numbers end up being.

Add to this that his QB was Cam Newton, not exactly known for his accuracy or ball placement to a point where it is a negative for all receivers working with him in terms of catch percentage and things that you are saying were sub standard.

That said Norv Turner scares the hell out of me in how he will decide to use McCaffrey and Newton. So in redraft I will stay away. If McCaffrey can overcome this too? He is going to break the mold.

 

[Buckna]

This reminds me of the Cam Newton debate. Folks argued he couldn’t do X rushing TDs because it hadn’t been done before. Newton wasn’t used like a traditional QB in the same way McCaffrey (Kamara) isn’t used like a traditional RB. Newton of course went on to smash the career QB rushing TD record in just 6 seasons. McCaffrey (Kamara) is going to have a few 80 catch seasons - and that doesn’t make him Marshall Faulk.

I never was a part of the conversation you mention about Cam, but if you are arguing that McCaffrey also breaks the mold, there are already a few other posts after this arguing it back and forth. This idea they are going to use him differently than every other RB in history has some merit considering what he just did as a rookie, but loses some of its persuasiveness when you consider that they fired the GM that drafted McCaffrey before the season started, and then fired the OC that threw it to him 80+ times last year.

They just spent a 1st rounder on a new WR. They also added a veteran RB who still has tread on his tires and can catch passes compared to a used up Stewart who was seeing barely 20 targets a season in his twilight years. So he has a new OC, a new GM that brought in another guy to compete, and more competition for targets from the WRs (on paper at least.) I still stand by my assertion that 80+ catches on a regular basis is a way too rosy an outlook. That doesn't mean he won't be valuable as a fantasy asset, but he won't be an elite asset either unless he improves his running proficiency.

Edit: Just re-read the McCaffrey thread for the first time in a few weeks and a lot of this has already been fleshed out there.

 

[Buckna]

It's the second best ever for a rookie. My mistake. ...and earned an elite PFF receiving grade of 90.5, the second-highest ever recorded by a rookie running back.

The originally linked PFF article starts off by saying that McCaffrey broke the record for the # of passing routes run for a rookie RB since they started tracking data in 2006. The next closest rookie RB's to McCaffrey are: Reggie Bush, Steve Slaton, Kevin Smith, and Duke Johnson, not exactly a ringing endorsement (they don't give the others corresponding PFF receiving grades.)

The elite PFF receiving grade on McCaffrey is more convincing, and I buy into PFF's methodology a lot. I couldn't get a list of their other running back receiving grades for comparison, but for a counter-point, here is the list of PFF's highest rated overall rookie RB season's ever from 1 year ago in descending order: Alfred Morris, Steve Slaton, Adrian Peterson, Ezekial Elliot, and Eddie Lacy. As much as I like PFF, these grades don't really seem like a great predictive metric.

 

[Concept Coop]

I never was a part of the conversation you mention about Cam, but if you are arguing that McCaffrey also breaks the mold, there are already a few other posts after this arguing it back and forth. This idea they are going to use him differently than every other RB in history has some merit considering what he just did as a rookie, but loses some of its persuasiveness when you consider that they fired the GM that drafted McCaffrey before the season started, and then fired the OC that threw it to him 80+ times last year.

They just spent a 1st rounder on a new WR. They also added a veteran RB who still has tread on his tires and can catch passes compared to a used up Stewart who was seeing barely 20 targets a season in his twilight years. So he has a new OC, a new GM that brought in another guy to compete, and more competition for targets from the WRs (on paper at least.) I still stand by my assertion that 80+ catches on a regular basis is a way too rosy an outlook. That doesn't mean he won't be valuable as a fantasy asset, but he won't be an elite asset either unless he improves his running proficiency.

Edit: Just re-read the McCaffrey thread for the first time in a few weeks and a lot of this has already been fleshed out there.

I don't own McCaffrey and have never been high on him, so I don't want to adopt a pro-McCaffrey stance here. My issue is simply with the way we're using historical comps. McCaffrey doesn't need to be Lev Bell or Marshall Faulk to have a few 80+ catch seasons. (Even at root, this argument is a form of the gambler's fallacy. The fact that he did it once does nothing to hurt his chances of repeating, even if only X backs have had 2+ such seasons in the past.) He simply needs to see the usage he did last season. 

Now you make a good point on McCaffrey's changing situation. Maybe he's not likely to see that usage again. And if so, he's not likely to see 80+ catches moving forward. But it will have nothing to do with Bell or Faulk or other RBs who weren't used the way McCaffrey was. 

 

[dipandglide]

Are you guys expecting regression from Engram this year? It’s tough to predict because he should have more space but with less opportunity (I’d be surprised if he sees 100+ targets this yr). 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Are you guys expecting regression from Engram this year? It’s tough to predict because he should have more space but with less opportunity (I’d be surprised if he sees 100+ targets this yr). 

I am.  His efficiency metrics were terrible.  He's high on my sell list for this year.  He might end up being really good but despite his value assuming as much, he really wasn't last year.  He just got a lot of volume.

 

[menobrown]

Are you guys expecting regression from Engram this year? It’s tough to predict because he should have more space but with less opportunity (I’d be surprised if he sees 100+ targets this yr). 

No. He had 4 almost full games with Odell last year. One of those games he only got 4 targets, did not catch a pass, that was the game that all hell broke loose and the Giants WR's all got hurt.  I consider that game an anomaly. The other 3 games he got 7, 7 and 11 targets.

I do think he was pretty inefficient last year, broke this down in a post awhile ago but he and Hunter Henry are sitting on exact same amount of targets right now, 115, and are only a few months apart in age but before Hunters injury I could not understand why Engram was so much more valued because Henry blew him away on production. But I have confidence that Odell and Barkley will open up the offense, also that Shurmur is light years better than Mcadoo and even if he gets a few less targets the efficiency will improve.

 

[Biabreakable]

I am.  His efficiency metrics were terrible.  He's high on my sell list for this year.  He might end up being really good but despite his value assuming as much, he really wasn't last year.  He just got a lot of volume.

And he was a rookie.. TE at that who should have been the main focus of defenses with pretty much everyone else injured.

It works both ways.

I would expect the volume to go down because of a healthy OBJ and also Barkley commanding a lot of targets, but his efficiency stats to go up, less focus by the defense on Engram in that scenario and he won't be a rookie anymore.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

And he was a rookie.. TE at that who should have been the main focus of defenses with pretty much everyone else injured.

It works both ways.

I would expect the volume to go down because of a healthy OBJ and also Barkley commanding a lot of targets, but his efficiency stats to go up, less focus by the defense on Engram in that scenario and he won't be a rookie anymore.

Sure, and if people were treating him as an unknown that would be fine.  But they're not.  They're treating him as if he's already shown he's really good.  He hasn't shown any more than Njoku or Howard or HH (and in some of those cases, less than them), but he's treated as at least a tier ahead of them, if not more.

 

[Biabreakable]

Sure, and if people were treating him as an unknown that would be fine.  But they're not.  They're treating him as if he's already shown he's really good.  He hasn't shown any more than Njoku or Howard or HH (and in some of those cases, less than them), but he's treated as at least a tier ahead of them, if not more.

I am a big fan of Engram considered him the best of the very good 1st round TEs last year and with some other factors helping his case he was. I expect that he is going to have a very good career and what he did last season wasn't an anomaly (although he may not get as many opportunities this year as last).

That said I hear what you are saying that he may be overvalued right now and I agree his catch rate last season was below average. 56% is pretty bad.

 

[Concept Coop]

Engram will likely always struggle with drops, but only 76% of his targets were catchable. I wish the market was turned off by his efficiency numbers; I’m not worried at all where I own him. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Engram will likely always struggle with drops, but only 76% of his targets were catchable. I wish the market was turned off by his efficiency numbers; I’m not worried at all where I own him. 

Is that the pff "catchable targets" metric? If so I thought we already threw that horribly mis-created stat in the trash bins of history where it belongs. 

Also given the hilariously dumb way they calculate "catchable targets", I think 76% is actually really high. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

He simply needs to see the usage he did last season. 

So he "simply" needs to smash the nfl record for routes run by a RB again. With a different OC. After him putting up lousy efficiency with those routes and the passing offense as a whole regressing while being run that way. 

Doesn't sound so simple. 

And I still don't at all buy into this notion that he breaks some magical mold of RBs in the past. There are plenty of RBs in the past that were similar to him. He just ran a few more routes than them and was less efficient than them. A receiving specialist RB that sometimes lines up at WR and kind of sucks with the ball in space is not some new nfl breaking thing. And while him doing it (worse) as a rookie is nice, it's not like we are talking about a quarterback who is expected to take several years to develop here. RBs are often (though not always) wysiwyg. 

 

[Concept Coop]

Is that the pff "catchable targets" metric? 

No.

And I still don't at all buy into this notion that he breaks some magical mold of RBs in the past. 

He clearly doesn't fit the traditional mold. By your own standards, he's already done it - just like he was drafted to do. He saw 114 targets to 117 carries. He had more receiving yards than rushing yards. He had more receiving TDs than rushing TDs. I mean, have fun comparing him to Bell and Faulk, but pardon me for not taking it seriously. 

Just because you can cherry pick a few backs with better efficiency (likely on less volume) doesn't mean McCaffrey wasn't efficient. Just because he didn't break tackles doesn't mean he wasn't good in space. 

 

[Biabreakable]

While RB is a position that can be very good right out of the gate, on average a RBs rookie season is the lowest performing of their first six seasons.

 

[FF Ninja]

Is that the pff "catchable targets" metric? If so I thought we already threw that horribly mis-created stat in the trash bins of history where it belongs. 

Also given the hilariously dumb way they calculate "catchable targets", I think 76% is actually really high. 

Wait, I must've missed this discussion. How do they calculate catchable targets? It always seemed like a useful stat so I'm sad if it is worthless.

I'm not that interested in CMC but this is my overly simple take on him:

• Last year the 2nd leading receiver had 51 targets, the TE1 had 48 targets
  
• This year Olsen, Moore, and Torrey have been added to the mix
  
• New OC 
  
• Minor point: 27 y.o. CJA > 30 y.o. Stewart
  

I'll gladly take the under on 80 rec this year. 

 

[Aunt Jemima]

What is the value of Delanie Walker?? Trying to figure out if I'm varying significantly from the consensus. As a guy for this year if I'm competing I expect him to be a top 5 TE, no reason really to not expect him to put up the best receiving numbers again unless you think he will suddenly go over the age cliff and on an up and coming Tennessee team, I realize he is getting older but I think he is a safer bet and more valuable than say a Jimmy Graham. Am I missing something? What is worth? early 2nd in TE premium for competitive teams??

 

[DAG]

I was very high on CMC coming out of college because I expected him to be a sufficient enough inside runner (he succeeded in a pro style offense running inside) to supplement his expected receiving production. The Panthers are my team so I watched him every week and not only did he look weak inside but as FreeBagel suggested tacklers took him down in the open field with remarkable ease. He was essentially a RB version of a catch and fall receiver. He’s bulked up in the offseason so maybe he gets a little stronger in his second year. I think Bia’s note on him being young and a rookie is potentially important. Also he looked more decisive in the preseason and late in the year so maybe he was thinking too much / trying to break everything for much of the year.

This isn’t groundbreaking but in the end I think his future value comes down to whether he can become more effective as a rusher to supplement his receiving stats. He also needs to become more elusive in the open field to justify a prominent role in the passing game long term. While I think these things could happen I don’t see evaluating his long term value on an expectation of his rookie year receiving production as the norm.