Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (7 Viewers)

[ghostguy123]

As I mentioned, he's 31 and Brady is 40. There was a FBG article that showed 32 is the age where WRs start to decline, so even if Brady somehow miraculously maintains his play for 2-3 more years, it seems unlikely Edelman will maintain his play.

I'm not saying he's not still worth 1.12, but I can see both sides.

How steep a decline you talking?  Cause even with a decline after next year he would still score well enough to justify it.

And mo,re Edelman specific, I am pretty confident that HIS game will be just fine in 2 years barring a horrible injury. 

 

[pizzatyme]

How steep a decline you talking?  Cause even with a decline after next year he would still score well enough to justify it.

And mo,re Edelman specific, I am pretty confident that HIS game will be just fine in 2 years barring a horrible injury. 

I think Edelman's numbers this year were pretty pedestrian when Gronk was playing. As I recall, he didn't take off until after the injury. I'm selling Edelman.

 

[FF Ninja]

How many other WRs are getting 12 TDs tossed to them from Rodgers? Seems like he likes him. And QBs make the WR most of the time. Hopkins this year and AB without Ben come to mind.

Is that a trick question? This past season Jordy got 14. In recent history, Jordy, Cobb, and James Jones have all had at least 12 receiving TDs in a season. Richard Rodgers caught 8 TDs in 2015. Richard Rodgers! You don't have to be very good to catch a lot of TDs in GB these days.

How steep a decline you talking?  Cause even with a decline after next year he would still score well enough to justify it.

I don't recall, but it was significant. It wasn't a cliff (that's typically 35 for WRs) but it was a big dip from 31. And obviously different guys will age differently. But in addition to the age related performance decline, you seem to be ignoring the risk of Brady's play deteriorating or Gronk stealing his targets. I can't tell you exactly how to value him, but to give some context, I snagged Edelman in several redrafts last year, but I'll be shocked if he's on any of my teams this year. I think now is the time to sell in dynasty.

 

[ghostguy123]

Is that a trick question? This past season Jordy got 14. In recent history, Jordy, Cobb, and James Jones have all had at least 12 receiving TDs in a season. Richard Rodgers caught 8 TDs in 2015. Richard Rodgers! You don't have to be very good to catch a lot of TDs in GB these days.

I don't recall, but it was significant. It wasn't a cliff (that's typically 35 for WRs) but it was a big dip from 31. And obviously different guys will age differently. But in addition to the age related performance decline, you seem to be ignoring the risk of Brady's play deteriorating or Gronk stealing his targets. I can't tell you exactly how to value him, but to give some context, I snagged Edelman in several redrafts last year, but I'll be shocked if he's on any of my teams this year. I think now is the time to sell in dynasty.

So if you are competing, and trading Edelman will hurt your chances, you are going to take pick 12 for him?  Pick 13?  18?

 

[FF Ninja]

So if you are competing, and trading Edelman will hurt your chances, you are going to take pick 12 for him?  Pick 13?  18?

If you have garbage behind him then obviously you can't afford to sell. He may have ended 2016 with a 23rd ranked PPG, but as has already been mentioned, when Gronk was on the field Edelman was not putting up points in any format. If you want to gamble on Gronk getting hurt again, I can't blame you, but it's not a bet I'm willing to take. There are too many scenarios in which Edelman disappoints (his own decline, loss of targets to Gronk, Brady's decline) and only one scenario where I see him being better than a WR3 - where Brady shows no decline from last year, despite being 40, and Gronk is hurt again.

For some relative value, Edelman just went WR12 (!!) in WSL1 in the mock forum. Some people still really like him.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Re: Rawls

12 team, start Q/R/WWW/T/ + 2 flex, PPR for WR/TE, .5 PPR for RB

I traded pick 9 and D.Green-Beckham for Rawls, pick 20, and a few blind bidding bucks (7% of yearly dole)

I'm down on DGB, and my opinion of Rawls actually went up watching him a few times this year. His #s were terrible vs Rams and Cards, pretty good against the rest overall, despite a bad O line. I think Seattle addresses O line. Rawls is still young, 24 in August.

 

[ghostguy123]

If you have garbage behind him then obviously you can't afford to sell. He may have ended 2016 with a 23rd ranked PPG, but as has already been mentioned, when Gronk was on the field Edelman was not putting up points in any format. If you want to gamble on Gronk getting hurt again, I can't blame you, but it's not a bet I'm willing to take. There are too many scenarios in which Edelman disappoints (his own decline, loss of targets to Gronk, Brady's decline) and only one scenario where I see him being better than a WR3 - where Brady shows no decline from last year, despite being 40, and Gronk is hurt again.

For some relative value, Edelman just went WR12 (!!) in WSL1 in the mock forum. Some people still really like him.

He has done well the past several years.  Last time I checked, Gronk was there.

 

[Warhogs]

Re: Rawls

12 team, start Q/R/WWW/T/ + 2 flex, PPR for WR/TE, .5 PPR for RB

I traded pick 9 and D.Green-Beckham for Rawls, pick 20, and a few blind bidding bucks (7% of yearly dole)

I'm down on DGB, and my opinion of Rawls actually went up watching him a few times this year. His #s were terrible vs Rams and Cards, pretty good against the rest overall, despite a bad O line. I think Seattle addresses O line. Rawls is still young, 24 in August.

Pick 9 for Rawls is maybe a bit of an overpay in a start 1 mandatory RB league but cashing out on DGB for the 20th pick is a win so this seems like a pretty fair deal overall.

 

[FF Ninja]

He has done well the past several years.  Last time I checked, Gronk was there.

Perhaps the magic formula was broken by the introduction of a legit TE2 this past year? I don't know, but the fact remains Edelman was terrible in 2016 while Gronk was healthy and Bennett was suiting up (even if he was hurt for a large portion of the year).

You can keep telling me he used to be good to convince me that he'll get crazy volume to prop up his numbers or you can act now before it's too late to salvage value. Your call. 

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Pick 9 for Rawls is maybe a bit of an overpay in a start 1 mandatory RB league but cashing out on DGB for the 20th pick is a win so this seems like a pretty fair deal overall.

I don't mind paying pick 9, I like Rawls' talent at least as much as the guys available in that range. I did make the move more to give me the flexibility to move another RB for WR; I have J.Howard and Mel Gordon. There are still a few owners that favor having a RB stable. We'll see what comes of that.

I got DGB for a pittance in our startup last year, so I am happy getting pick 20. I've soured on him after watching him in Philly, and I was going to have to assign a contract to him this season, which ties up some roster flexibility. Nobody else in this league was going to give up anything of significance for DGB.

The blind bidding bucks are probably equal to a mid 3rd rookie pick or so.

 

[ghostguy123]

Perhaps the magic formula was broken by the introduction of a legit TE2 this past year? I don't know, but the fact remains Edelman was terrible in 2016 while Gronk was healthy and Bennett was suiting up (even if he was hurt for a large portion of the year).

You can keep telling me he used to be good to convince me that he'll get crazy volume to prop up his numbers or you can act now before it's too late to salvage value. Your call. 

Maybe the magic formula was broken when Brady missed 4 games, all games he didnt do much?  One of which with Brissett where he scored like 2 points??

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Maybe the magic formula was broken when Brady missed 4 games, all games he didnt do much?  One of which with Brissett where he scored like 2 points??

His value being tied to his QB isn't exactly a compelling argument when his QB is 40 years old.

There's this odd assumption floating around that Brady is just going to keep on trucking along to 42, 43.  Correct me if I'm wrong here but if Brady has a top QB season when he's 42 he'll be the first one ever to do it.  Just assuming that he's going to beat father time like no one else has ever been able to before is a pretty major assumption.  People keep talking about him not showing any signs of decline but that's often how it works for football players near the end.  They're great one day, useless the next.  Pro Bowl starters one year, among the bottom 10 QBs in the league the next.

Heck, Peyton Manning went from MVP candidate to "never played another good game of football again" literally from one week to the next in the middle of the season.

 

[ghostguy123]

His value being tied to his QB isn't exactly a compelling argument when his QB is 40 years old.

There's this odd assumption floating around that Brady is just going to keep on trucking along to 42, 43.  Correct me if I'm wrong here but if Brady has a top QB season when he's 42 he'll be the first one ever to do it.  Just assuming that he's going to beat father time like no one else has ever been able to before is a pretty major assumption.  People keep talking about him not showing any signs of decline but that's often how it works for football players near the end.  They're great one day, useless the next.  Pro Bowl starters one year, among the bottom 10 QBs in the league the next.

Heck, Peyton Manning went from MVP candidate to "never played another good game of football again" literally from one week to the next in the middle of the season.

He doesnt have to have a "top" season for Edelman to do well.  Brady has always peppered the short timing throws, and that would be the last thing to go.

I am not talking about 5 years from now.  Brady just had an MVP type season.  Edelman is 31 with a style that should be just fine for 2 more years, and as long as Brady is alive and playing, he will continue to target Edelman quite a bit. 

My assumption is that Brady plays for at least 2 more seasons.  My assumption is that Edelman plays in NE for at least 2 more seasons.  Anything can happen, but these are the most likely for me.

If you were to tell me that both Brady and Edelman would retire after the 2018 season, I would still give pick 12 for Edelman if I needed WR help on a competing team. 

Also, it even seems my previous comment about pick 12 being a hit 25% was actually way high.  More like 15%?

and Brady is 39.  He would have to play decent at 40 and 41.........not 42 and 43.  There is a difference there.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

He doesnt have to have a "top" season for Edelman to do well.  Brady has always peppered the short timing throws, and that would be the last thing to go.

I am not talking about 5 years from now.  Brady just had an MVP type season.  Edelman is 31 with a style that should be just fine for 2 more years, and as long as Brady is alive and playing, he will continue to target Edelman quite a bit. 

My assumption is that Brady plays for at least 2 more seasons.  My assumption is that Edelman plays in NE for at least 2 more seasons.  Anything can happen, but these are the most likely for me.

If you were to tell me that both Brady and Edelman would retire after the 2018 season, I would still give pick 12 for Edelman if I needed WR help on a competing team. 

I think a lot of your points are valid, but one thing I think you're missing on is this assumption that Brady is going to slowly decline year over year into the sunset.

Is it relevant that Brady just had an MVP type season?  I don't think so.  It's not like there is a gap between MVP season and total garbage season where in between he goes from MVP one year to merely good the next year to merely above average the next year.  These guys generally go from MVP to complete trainwreck from one season to the next, with not much in between.

How many fantasy points will Edelman's style be worth if his QB throws for 2500 yards with 11 TDs, as Brett Favre did the year after he put up an MVP caliber 4200 yards with 32 TDs and 7 INTs?  How many fantasy points will Edelman's style net if his QB throws for 2200 yards and 11 TDs, as Peyton Manning did the year after he put up an MVP caliber 4700 yards and 40 TDs?

Edelman doesn't just need Brady.  He needs good Brady.  Not 2000 yards and 12 TDs Brady.  Historically, that Brady could show up any day now and assuming that we won't see it for at least another 2 years is a pretty major assumption.  Next year at age 40 has been done before, but extremely rarely.  Certainly not something I'd count on as being a given.  Beyond that we're in pretty much uncharted territory, with only Warren Moon having an average season at that age.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Manning fell off a cliff "so suddenly" because his neck injury really hurt his arm strength and he was on a ticking clock. He was throwing well-timed wounded ducks for 2-3 years before he finally hit the wall, you could see it coming from a mile away but his superior football brain and playmaking WRs prolonged his window.

There's no reason to think this will happen to Brady if he doesn't get injured. The older he gets, the more likely an injury probably becomes. But until then, he's shown no decline at all in his physical abilities and most importantly in his arm strength.

It's not a comparable situation. Neither is Favre because he spent an entire career getting beat up and looked like an ancient arthritic corpse every time he painstakingly got up off the ground. He was barely keeping it together that last year and looked like an old man. It was not sudden, his body was shot but he tried to hang on.

 

[ghostguy123]

Manning had an injury and defied all oddw with it.  As far as i know brady has no major degenerative nerve issues in his neck.

 

[ghostguy123]

So we should have gronk super low then I would assume?  He has also the same issues as edelman plus he is injured more than just about anyone right?

 

[ghostguy123]

But hey, this is why trades happen in the first place.  As I said before, if I wasn't that competitive and needed to rebuild, I would shop Edelman for pick 12 (preferably a future 1st) pretty easily. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I think a lot of your points are valid, but one thing I think you're missing on is this assumption that Brady is going to slowly decline year over year into the sunset.

Is it relevant that Brady just had an MVP type season?  I don't think so.  It's not like there is a gap between MVP season and total garbage season where in between he goes from MVP one year to merely good the next year to merely above average the next year.  These guys generally go from MVP to complete trainwreck from one season to the next, with not much in between.

How many fantasy points will Edelman's style be worth if his QB throws for 2500 yards with 11 TDs, as Brett Favre did the year after he put up an MVP caliber 4200 yards with 32 TDs and 7 INTs?  How many fantasy points will Edelman's style net if his QB throws for 2200 yards and 11 TDs, as Peyton Manning did the year after he put up an MVP caliber 4700 yards and 40 TDs?

Edelman doesn't just need Brady.  He needs good Brady.  Not 2000 yards and 12 TDs Brady.  Historically, that Brady could show up any day now and assuming that we won't see it for at least another 2 years is a pretty major assumption.  Next year at age 40 has been done before, but extremely rarely.  Certainly not something I'd count on as being a given.  Beyond that we're in pretty much uncharted territory, with only Warren Moon having an average season at that age.

Manning had an injury and defied all oddw with it.  As far as i know brady has no major degenerative nerve issues in his neck.

It was really a thigh/quad injury that finally killed Peyton at the end.  He went from MVP to useless overnight when that injury occurred, and was never useful again.  But that's kind of the thing with age, right?  All these injuries take 10x as long to heal and have much less strength elsewhere to compensate for them.  All of the sudden an ankle injury that you played through at age 25 is debilitating and takes 18 months to heal. 

Steve Young had the best season of his career at age 38 with 4200 yards passing and 36 TDs at 8.1ypa, not to mention 454 yards rushing that season.  He threw 3 TDs the rest of his career.

Randall Cunningham had his dream MVP season with 3700 yards and 34 TDs at 8.7ypa....and would never again throw for more than 8 TDs in a season.

All of these guys have "yeah...but"s, but as I mentioned above that's kind of the case when you get older.  One day we'll be talking about Brady and he'll have his own "yeah...but" as well.  Sometimes guys fade out slowly, but just as likely they end abruptly and as they hit ages this high it very much trends towards the latter.  Either way, Brady is a special player and he may buck the trend of all of history, but I certainly wouldn't assume or consider it likely that he does.

So we should have gronk super low then I would assume?  He has also the same issues as edelman plus he is injured more than just about anyone right?

Same issues? 

Brady certainly helps, but Gronk is in no way dependent on Brady to be relevant the way that Edelman is.

 

[Andrew74]

But until then, he's shown no decline at all in his physical abilities and most importantly in his arm strength.

I thought Brady's arm strength began to fade a couple years back?  At least that's the discussion I remember on these boards and from talking heads. But then again, I'm over 40 and stuff just doesn't work the same. 

 

[northern exposure]

I would be interested in seeing other peoples' thoughts on the value in 2017 rookie picks of Tyrell Williams and Jimmy Garoppolo. Non-ppr 12 team dynasty league. 

Jimmy G seems to be getting a lot of buzz as a trade target for the Browns, Texans and any other team in need of a QB. Tyrell had a great season, but I would think he takes a backseat to Keenan Allen next season.  Opinions on these two seem to be all over the place, so what do you think?

 

[Andrew74]

Where are we on Graham? Just saw him moved for Paul Perkins straight up, which feels cheap. Makes me wonder, if the new Graham owner thinks he got a steal and wants to play with house money, if I shouldn't see if I can get Graham+ something good for Reed.

I'm considering trying to move Graham for 2nd in the top half to grab one of the rookie TEs. He finished TE4 in this league and I think this may be my best shot to cash out. That will basically leave me with Ertz until the rookie (hopefully) pans out. But with only 22 slots, I don't want to carry 3-4 TEs. 

 

[FUBAR]

I'm considering trying to move Graham for 2nd in the top half to grab one of the rookie TEs. He finished TE4 in this league and I think this may be my best shot to cash out. That will basically leave me with Ertz until the rookie (hopefully) pans out. But with only 22 slots, I don't want to carry 3-4 TEs. 

Gotta think you could get the early 2nd easily, especially from a contender.  I happen to have Graham but would gladly pay that now.  

Now being the optimal time, if you wait and the owners see Howard, njoku, Everett, Engram, Butt, Leggett and hodges all taken in the top 3 rounds to decent spots it might become harder to pull off.

 

[FF Ninja]

Maybe the magic formula was broken when Brady missed 4 games, all games he didnt do much?  One of which with Brissett where he scored like 2 points??

I feel like you're just guessing at excuses now because his best 2 games of the first 8 were weeks 1 and 2 when Brady was out. He didn't get >60 yards again until week 10.

 

[pizzatyme]

He has done well the past several years.  Last time I checked, Gronk was there.

2016 

Games 5,6,7,8,10, and 12 when Gronk played significant snaps: Edelman went 37/354/1 average of 6.2 catches/59 yards

All other games Edelman went 61/752/2 average of 6.1 catches/ 75.2 yards

Playoff games Edelman's numbers have gone up dramatically.

 

[menobrown]

I would be interested in seeing other peoples' thoughts on the value in 2017 rookie picks of Tyrell Williams

Traded him last week but I asked for a 2018#1, projected top 6. in the trade discussion someone posted he went for 1.7 in a league. That's what gave me the idea to shop him, I did not know he was that valued until a few people commented that seemed like a reasonable price to pay. For me I posted in my league MB I'd trade him for first 2017#1 I got offered and would consider 2018#1's on case by case.

 

[Warhogs]

Williams has been a little all over the place sort of like Tyreek Hill.  A couple people have gotten a round 1 pick but I think those are exceptions and not the norm.  I would be jumping for joy to land any pick in round 1.  His value on average is probably closer to mid round 2 to me and I might even sell at that price.  He had a nice showing but it's tough to see how things will shake out when both Keenan Allen and Travis Benjamin return.  

 

[menobrown]

I'm considering trying to move Graham for 2nd in the top half to grab one of the rookie TEs. He finished TE4 in this league and I think this may be my best shot to cash out. That will basically leave me with Ertz until the rookie (hopefully) pans out. But with only 22 slots, I don't want to carry 3-4 TEs. 

I traded him for last week, paid 2.11, 2018 second round pick(projected late), and Vance McDonald and Ryan Griffin though I have no idea why the other team wanted Griffin, I was going to cut him anyway and Mcdonald was 50/50 himself. This was FFPC, TE premium.

I am in agreement with your plan, use Ertz while you develop the rookie and by 2018 you got a lot younger. Still not sure it's the right time to move Graham, and I'm usually big on cashing in on older players. But I think he just might be a lot better year two from the patella, and while his starts working against his trade value I think that TE's have aged well and he's not played football as much as some other players so I think he can give a solid 3+.  Unless he resigns he hits FA next off-season, got to think he can land some better destinations.

 

[FF Ninja]

I'm considering trying to move Graham for 2nd in the top half to grab one of the rookie TEs. He finished TE4 in this league and I think this may be my best shot to cash out. That will basically leave me with Ertz until the rookie (hopefully) pans out. But with only 22 slots, I don't want to carry 3-4 TEs. 

Ertz is a top 6 dynasty TE. I'd definitely take what I could get for Graham if I was you.

 

[pizzatyme]

Traded him last week but I asked for a 2018#1, projected top 6. in the trade discussion someone posted he went for 1.7 in a league. That's what gave me the idea to shop him, I did not know he was that valued until a few people commented that seemed like a reasonable price to pay. For me I posted in my league MB I'd trade him for first 2017#1 I got offered and would consider 2018#1's on case by case.

I traded Tyrell during the season when he was hot for Jordan Howard. I like how it turned out.  But, I'm high on Howard.

 

[menobrown]

I traded Tyrell during the season when he was hot for Jordan Howard. I like how it turned out.  But, I'm high on Howard.

I like that worked out for you as well. I'm also high on Howard. It blows my mind when I see 2016 rookie draft do over mocks and people either don't have Howard in like top 10 or have D Henry over him. I did trade Howard in only league I have him a few weeks ago, gave him and 2.1 for Michael Thomas. My leaguemates seemed quick to think I "won", but I see at as equal myself, gave a lot for a lot but was RB heavy and WR thin.

 

[northern exposure]

Traded him last week but I asked for a 2018#1, projected top 6. in the trade discussion someone posted he went for 1.7 in a league. That's what gave me the idea to shop him, I did not know he was that valued until a few people commented that seemed like a reasonable price to pay. For me I posted in my league MB I'd trade him for first 2017#1 I got offered and would consider 2018#1's on case by case.

Thanks for the feedback. I was looking to acquire Garoppolo and Williams and was told by the other owner he wanted my 2017 2.03 rookie pick for either player. I told him that was a crazy high price for Jimmy G and too much for Tyrell too. He suggested he could get a mid to late 1st for Tyrell and his asking price was cheap for Garoppolo.

I think I'll move on from this owner and look at getting Breshad Perriman.  Thoughts on his value in 2017 rookie pick(s)?

 

[menobrown]

I think I'll move on from this owner and look at getting Breshad Perriman.  Thoughts on his value in 2017 rookie pick(s)?

 I've only seen Perriman traded in one league this off-season, only got a late 2nd which I thought was a good price to pay.  He's one of my favorite buy low's this off-season, but I'm trying to hold off on offering early to mid 2nd's until the NFL draft goes down.

 

[Brisco54]

Let's see if we can collectively reach a consensus on the current value of rookie picks 1.1 thru 1.6.

For this discussion, let's assume a 12 team league QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/K/DEF with ppr

So starting with pick 1.1 where would you draft that pick in a dynasty start up?  (I use the term start-up as a reference... do not base your opinion on the fact that the league is or is not established, but only on the current dynasty market value of the players and picks)

Said another way, how many players are there that you currently rank higher than pick 1.1? 

I identified 15 players that I would take before pick 1.1.  

So I currently rank pick 1.1 rookie as being equal to pick 2.4 start up, which is much higher than most years.  What are your thoughts?

 

[tangfoot]

Ertz is a top 6 dynasty TE. I'd definitely take what I could get for Graham if I was you.

I think that's debatable.  The January mock drafts at Mizelle show him as TE 8, which seems about right to me.  He only had 2-4 good games this season.

 

[FUBAR]

Ertz is a top 6 dynasty TE. I'd definitely take what I could get for Graham if I was you.

This is why I prefer leagues with flex and TE enhanced, but settings are vital to these values.  In leagues where you can start 2 TE, he's worth more.  If not, the plan makes sense. 

 

[pizzatyme]

Interesting. It would be 24 deep at least for me right now.

 

[ghostguy123]

I feel like you're just guessing at excuses now because his best 2 games of the first 8 were weeks 1 and 2 when Brady was out. He didn't get >60 yards again until week 10.

So now you are saying he ISN'T QB dependent??  7 catches each of the first 2 weeks, one of which only had half of Jimmy G?

The other 2 games were royal duds with their #3 QB.  Kind of an outlier there. 

I wonder how all this picking and choosing works for all the other WRs he outscored.  Ya know, all but like 18 of them?

 

[FF Ninja]

I think that's debatable.  The January mock drafts at Mizelle show him as TE 8, which seems about right to me.  He only had 2-4 good games this season.

Sorry, I'm not familiar with Mizelle. What is that?

I agree Ertz at TE6 is debatable, but to me he's pretty firmly there. I don't mean to turn this into an Ertz topic, but I'll show my logic:

• First off, he missed 2 games with a dislocated rib, so we're only looking at a 14 game sample with Wentz
  
• In his first 3 games back from injury he only caught 5 passes, so 2016 was a slow start that probably soured a lot of people on him
  
• In the last 8 games of the season he had 78 targets for 55/569/4 - nobody is expecting him to repeat that for 16 games, but that's pretty impressive (if you go back 9 games it's 86-63/666/4)
  
• Wentz really regressed in the second half, so to me Ertz's stats are even more impressive (he had 4 of Wentz's 7 TD during those 8 games)
  
• He had at least 6 receptions in 8 of his 14 games
  
• He's only 26 - won't turn 27 until halfway through the season
  
• Wentz was a rookie last year and I expect him to get better (3782/16/14 should not be hard to improve upon)
  

Gronk is obviously in his own tier. In the next tier Eifert is my #2. Kelce is there, but we just witnessed his ceiling this past year. Reed's TDs necessitate that he's on every list, but TDs are variable and he's a huge concussion risk. His targets/game and YPR are similar to Ertz. They are also the same age. If I'm doing a startup, I'm taking Ertz over him. I like Olsen but he turns 32 in March. To me that knocks him down to a 3rd tier in dynasty, but I understand if some people keep him in tier 2. Either way, that's 5 guys I'd understand ranked above him. Graham is 4 years older than Ertz and I just don't really like Graham that much as a dynasty asset. Ebron is 3 years younger but can't stay healthy or prove he deserves more targets. Hunter Henry is enticing but I'm not making him top 6 off of 53 targets as a rookie.

 

[FF Ninja]

So now you are saying he ISN'T QB dependent??  7 catches each of the first 2 weeks, one of which only had half of Jimmy G?

The other 2 games were royal duds with their #3 QB.  Kind of an outlier there. 

I wonder how all this picking and choosing works for all the other WRs he outscored.  Ya know, all but like 18 of them?

No, I'm saying you can't cry about Brady missing games when 2 of those 4 games were the best games of the first half of the season for him.

Look, I'm sure you can craft a narrative where you convince yourself that Edelman is going to put up top 24 numbers on a ppg basis next season, but that isn't going to do you a lick of good when it doesn't happen. His stats were padded by Gronk missing time and him receiving 97 targets in the last 8 games. I'm sorry, but that's probably not going to happen in 2017. And as people keep trying to tell you, Brady probably isn't going to have another MVP-type season at age 40. Brady has only cracked 8 ypa three times in his career. 2016 was also the best TD-INT ratio of his career. Even if he wasn't 40 a regression should be expected.

Keep hunting for confirmation bias if you want or looking backwards, but it would be in your own best interest to start looking forward.

 

[Hankmoody]

Thanks for the feedback. I was looking to acquire Garoppolo and Williams and was told by the other owner he wanted my 2017 2.03 rookie pick for either player. I told him that was a crazy high price for Jimmy G and too much for Tyrell too. He suggested he could get a mid to late 1st for Tyrell and his asking price was cheap for Garoppolo.

I think I'll move on from this owner and look at getting Breshad Perriman.  Thoughts on his value in 2017 rookie pick(s)?

That's a ridiculous ask for Garoppolo in a 1 QB league.  I recently saw Mariotta go for 2.08.  I'd give 2.03 for Tyrell.  He just posted a WR22 season while learning on the fly.  Plenty of upside and there's plenty of room in that offense for him to repeat even if Allen returns.  I would not trade Tyrell for that unless it was OTC and there was someone there I had ranked higher.

 

[tangfoot]

Sorry, I'm not familiar with Mizelle. What is that?

I agree Ertz at TE6 is debatable, but to me he's pretty firmly there. I don't mean to turn this into an Ertz topic, but I'll show my logic:

• First off, he missed 2 games with a dislocated rib, so we're only looking at a 14 game sample with Wentz
  
• In his first 3 games back from injury he only caught 5 passes, so 2016 was a slow start that probably soured a lot of people on him
  
• In the last 8 games of the season he had 78 targets for 55/569/4 - nobody is expecting him to repeat that for 16 games, but that's pretty impressive (if you go back 9 games it's 86-63/666/4)
  
• Wentz really regressed in the second half, so to me Ertz's stats are even more impressive (he had 4 of Wentz's 7 TD during those 8 games)
  
• He had at least 6 receptions in 8 of his 14 games
  
• He's only 26 - won't turn 27 until halfway through the season
  
• Wentz was a rookie last year and I expect him to get better (3782/16/14 should not be hard to improve upon)
  

Gronk is obviously in his own tier. In the next tier Eifert is my #2. Kelce is there, but we just witnessed his ceiling this past year. Reed's TDs necessitate that he's on every list, but TDs are variable and he's a huge concussion risk. His targets/game and YPR are similar to Ertz. They are also the same age. If I'm doing a startup, I'm taking Ertz over him. I like Olsen but he turns 32 in March. To me that knocks him down to a 3rd tier in dynasty, but I understand if some people keep him in tier 2. Either way, that's 5 guys I'd understand ranked above him. Graham is 4 years older than Ertz and I just don't really like Graham that much as a dynasty asset. Ebron is 3 years younger but can't stay healthy or prove he deserves more targets. Hunter Henry is enticing but I'm not making him top 6 off of 53 targets as a rookie.

Thanks for putting your thoughts down, I appreciate it.

The main reason I don't think Ertz belongs that high is because he has done this before.  He finished 2015 hot as well.  I think that's ultimately all he is--a guy who has a couple great games each season and a lot of disappearances.

Mizelle compiles MFL mock draft data, http://mizelle.net/mfl/2017/

And just one correction:  Ertz only scored 2 TDs this season, but it was 2 of Wentz's final 5 TD throws.

 

[ghostguy123]

No, I'm saying you can't cry about Brady missing games when 2 of those 4 games were the best games of the first half of the season for him.

Look, I'm sure you can craft a narrative where you convince yourself that Edelman is going to put up top 24 numbers on a ppg basis next season, but that isn't going to do you a lick of good when it doesn't happen. His stats were padded by Gronk missing time and him receiving 97 targets in the last 8 games. I'm sorry, but that's probably not going to happen in 2017. And as people keep trying to tell you, Brady probably isn't going to have another MVP-type season at age 40. Brady has only cracked 8 ypa three times in his career. 2016 was also the best TD-INT ratio of his career. Even if he wasn't 40 a regression should be expected.

Keep hunting for confirmation bias if you want or looking backwards, but it would be in your own best interest to start looking forward.

Just curious.  What do you even think my view on Edelman's value in PPR leagues is?

 

[FF Ninja]

Thanks for putting your thoughts down, I appreciate it.

The main reason I don't think Ertz belongs that high is because he has done this before.  He finished 2015 hot as well.  I think that's ultimately all he is--a guy who has a couple great games each season and a lot of disappearances.

Mizelle compiles MFL mock draft data, http://mizelle.net/mfl/2017/

And just one correction:  Ertz only scored 2 TDs this season, but it was 2 of Wentz's final 5 TD throws.

Nice - I'll definitely use Mizelle in the future!

Hah, ok, 2 TDs if you're going to ignore week 17 for fantasy but I still count it when evaluating his talent and connection with Wentz.

And I don't think it's fair to label him a week 16/17 guy just because he's had a big game 3 years in a row. I think we both know that is just a statistical anomaly. I think if Ertz stays healthy (only 3 missed games in 4 years) and Wentz shows just a moderate improvement from year 1 to 2 then he's got as good of odds as anyone not named Gronk or Eifert to hit ~80/1000/8 (or equivalent points - I know Eifert is unlikely to hit 80 rec, but his red zone targets offset that).

 

[FF Ninja]

Just curious.  What do you even think my view on Edelman's value in PPR leagues is?

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/748837-dynasty-value-discussion-thread/?do=findComment&comment=19838935

 

[pizzatyme]

All this Ertz talk....sheesh! What about my dude Brate?! Look at his 2nd half split. Going to go off in 2017!!!

 

[Andrew74]

Thanks for the feedback. I was looking to acquire Garoppolo and Williams and was told by the other owner he wanted my 2017 2.03 rookie pick for either player. I told him that was a crazy high price for Jimmy G and too much for Tyrell too. He suggested he could get a mid to late 1st for Tyrell and his asking price was cheap for Garoppolo.

I think I'll move on from this owner and look at getting Breshad Perriman.  Thoughts on his value in 2017 rookie pick(s)?

I own Perriman and would consider moving him for a pick at 2.05 or better. He appears to have a shot at being a starter in BAL so I'd want a little more than a dice roll late 2nd/early 3rd. 

 

[FF Ninja]

All this Ertz talk....sheesh! What about my dude Brate?! Look at his 2nd half split. Going to go off in 2017!!!

That's a nice split, too, but he's light on targets... 39 over those 7 games. When they sign their VJax replacement I expect Brate's targets to take a hit. Especially if they use that cap space (5th most) to acquire someone like Alshon.

 

[pizzatyme]

That's a nice split, too, but he's light on targets... 39 over those 7 games. When they sign their VJax replacement I expect Brate's targets to take a hit. Especially if they use that cap space (5th most) to acquire someone like Alshon.

But when you have hands like Spiderman, 39 is all you need!

 

[Snorkelson]

But when you have hands like Spiderman, 39 is all you need!

I like some brate