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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (14 Viewers)
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
Wildly different from league to league. I think top players should get at least 2 1st rd level players, but people devalue the qb and then scold you for wanting more than next years 2nd.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Are you serious?Thanks for not answering
I was obviously saying you already told me and everyone else how you value him. So the answer to your question of 'how do I (ninja) think you (ghost) value Edelman?' is simply how you already told me you value him. You think he's going to put up 2-3 more years like the past 3 years which have all been at least top 24 ppg. I humbly beg to differ with this valuation.
FUBAR
Footballguy
QB is the toughest position to value. Rodgers should be worth a mid 1st but if all the contenders have the top guys already (or think they do - they like their qb and don't feel the need to improve) you aren't likely to get value for him.
This is a good way to put a value on the pick.
I strongly believe the 2014 draft class continues to change the way rookies are valued in a startup. I only did one startup that season, FFPC league. Sammy was mid to late third, Evans went 3.12. I recall Sankey going in 4th, same as Cooks. Ebron and Odell I recall were back to back picks at 7.1 and 7.1. So Sammy/Evans were 1/2 that year, Sankey and Cooks usually top 5, Ebron in 3-7 range in most leagues and Odell I saw go 6-9 in rookie drafts.
I think that draft changed the way WR's are viewed, they are no longer viewed as players you need to draft, stash and wait for the year 2 or 3 breakout and I think that impact has been evident the past two years.
In 2015 Gurley, Cooper were gone in second round of almost every draft I saw and I usually saw 3 rookies gone by end of second. I did two startups that off-season, both FFPC rules, by the end of the 5th round 11 rookies had been taken. So again compare that to the previous season where the top two don't go off until late third and in round 7 only around 5-6 rookies had been picked to start that round. In both of those startups in 2015 about 18 rookies had been picked before the end of the 7th round. So in theory a mid-second round rookie pick was comparable to a 7th round startup.
Last year was such a downer year that it regressed but even then I saw rookies going higher than the far and away better 2014 class. I only did one startup last year, I will never forget trading back from 6 to 11 and seeing Elliot go 10. Thomas, Doctons, Treadwell, Shepard all gone by end of 5th round.
So that is my very long winded way of saying I think rookie picks are more highly valued than they used to be, at least relative to startup value.
in 2014 I had Gurley ranked 11th and Cooper 13th so for me you could say the 1.2 was same value as pick 13. Last year Elliot was the only rookie I had rated in first 4 rounds, can't recall where I had him ranked because I don't think I bothered to do it but I was going to pick him at 10 and I'd have picked him over at least 1-2 players that went over him so likely around 8.
This year I've not done it yet but I will later and I think I'll easily have pick 1.2 before I get to 12.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
This is a good question. My basic answer would be to consider the players last 3 seasons as a guide. If there is good and bad in there, it should even itself out somewhat and give you a sense of the players average recent performance.
At the same time, every player and situation is different, so it is good to consider those factors as well when trying to guess what the players future performance might be.
Part of the issue is that people define what a stud is differently. To me it is a player that you start without considering match up or other things. Randy Moss was a stud, until he was traded to the Raiders, where he wasn't, then he was again with the Patriots. In some ways he always was, he just didn't play up to that ability for his whole career. He clearly was not a stud after the Patriots let him go.
Dez Bryant was WR 21 in 2016 and WR 79 in 2015. While WR 4 in 2014 so appears to be trending down. In context however, he has missed games with injuries and played with poor QBs in 2015 with Romo out and while Prescott was very good, he was also a rookie, which tends to hurt receiving stats until the QB gets some experience and improve as passers.
Here are Dez per game stats:
2016 7.3 targets/game (117) 3.9 receptions per game (61) 61.2 yards per game (979) .62 TD per game (10) 8.2 YPT
2015 8 targets/game (128) 3.4 receptions per game (61) 44.6 yards per game (713) .33 TD per game (5) 5.6 YPT
2014 8.5 targets/game (136) 5.5 receptions per game (88) 82.5 yards per game (1320) 1 TD per game (16) 9.7 YPT
Just accounting for the missed games you can see some things stay pretty close to the same, like targets, but the targets were his lowest on a per game basis compared to 2016 when he was playing with Romo for most of the season. His receptions being below 4 per game is one indicator of him slipping from 'spud' status. It is more the 25 and 50 % decline in yards and TD the last two seasons than the lower targets and receptions though.
Dez Bryants yards per reception was still good last season, which is an indicator that he is still an explosive player. The TD/game was still good as well although not back to 2014 level.
The stongest example of a difference between Dez's play in 2015 compared to 2014 or 2016 is the yards per target which took a huge hit from the QB du jour Dallas played that season.
Bryant will be 29 this year so the long term outlook isn't the same as when he was a younger player. He shouldn't see a significant decline due to age until his age 33 seasons (if he does) which is 5 years away. So if you are using a 5 year outlook on WRs he would start seeing some discount from that age 33 season as part of it. Shorter time frames shouldn't really be affected.
I would expect Prescott to get better and Dez to remain the primary target for the Cowboys. While he might not get back to 2014 level of performance again, I could see him being close and scoring double digit TD a few more times before he is 33. He had two very good seasons prior to 2014 and may have a couple more of those left in him.
He has not been a stud the last two seasons, but I could see him being one again in 2017.
northern exposure
Footballguy
I'll assume you are looking at a Zealots league. In one of my leagues last season Rodgers was traded for a 2017 1st and 2nd round rookie pick and Jay Cutler. That seemed really light to me.
I think the two picks plus a younger prospect is a reasonable return.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
If he puts up 2 years of decent (decent could be 10th or 35th depending how all the scoring shakes out with everyone) numbers, to me on a strong team who could use some WR help/insurance/depth I would gladly give pick 12 for Edelman.Are you serious?
I was obviously saying you already told me and everyone else how you value him. So the answer to your question of 'how do I (ninja) think you (ghost) value Edelman?' is simply how you already told me you value him. You think he's going to put up 2-3 more years like the past 3 years which have all been at least top 24 ppg. I humbly beg to differ with this valuation.
I think he has an excellent chance to do what he has been doing, which is being peppered by Brady with short throws, for the next two years. Anything beyond that would be a huge bonus IMO.
I would wager that in PPR startup drafts Edelman will get drafted pretty close to where the 12th rookie is drafted.
He doesnt have to be a stud to be worth pick 12.
I also said I would gladly take pick 12 over him if rebuilding.
Why are you arguing your case again? You asked how I think you value him, so I linked to your post where you specifically said how you value him. That wasn't good enough so I had to summarize your statement for you. Now you're arguing again.Myself and others have laid out why he's a risky dynasty buy already. I agree there's a chance he continues his rate of play for 1 year, but I don't like the odds. Team need will dictate if a 1.12 is worth it for him. I agree there are scenarios where I'd consider making that trade. However, I hope my dynasty teams never get that desperate and/or depleted of depth/talent.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Done with this one.
ETA: I like how you cut my quote short so you could ignore the fact that those scenarios entail an unfortunate sense of desperation.
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I'd rather bet on Kyle Rudolph.All this Ertz talk....sheesh! What about my dude Brate?! Look at his 2nd half split. Going to go off in 2017!!!
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Something to keep in mind with Ertz. He has shown flashes of statistical dominance at the end of each of the last 3 seasons. This has been done with 4 different quarterbacks. I think he fits the profile to make a big leap this year with another offseason with Wentz to further develop that chemistry..
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I just think it is possible that the flashes came after chemistry with his QB developed. Something he has not had the luxury of past one season.
Ertz is one I've long comped to Witten and very easy to envision a Romo/Witten like bromance with him and Wentz. I think his floor is what we've seen, a 75/800 guy. As you point out he comes on like gangbusters at the end of each season, which means he usually disappoints his owners early which often can make for a solid value trade target.King of the Jungle said:
I do think Philly will be the most aggressive team in the NFL this off-season in terms of adding WR talent. That could alter his target load but I feel like he's going to be Wentz safety blanket and pick up his floor a little. But I'll always prefer him in a TE premium league like FFPC relative to other TE's becasue like Witten he's not much of a red zone threat. They keep talking like he will be, I don't see it.
During last few weeks of the season, relative to 1.5 TE PPR scoring, I was mulling over my top dynasty TE's and it's kind of muddled and not easy. I think I had 9 TE's at the time I felt were legit consideration for top 5. But you have the issue the best current TE's are by and large either old or carry excessive injury issues with them. I've since trimmed that list down a little but would still consider 6 TE's worthy of top 5 TE ranking, just can't nail down my ranking yet but those 6 would include Ertz along with Eifert, Reed, Gronk, Henry and Kelce. I got Ebron, Rudolph, Olsen and Graham rounding out my 10 would not consider any of them worthy of top 5 dynasty ranking.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think this is an interesting theory. Hard to tell if it's one of those things that makes more logical sense on paper than it does on the field (as so many things in football/fantasy football do), but it's definitely worth considering.King of the Jungle said:
I think I'd definitely target him over Rudolph, who's value seems tied to playing with a QB that is unwilling to give any WRs further than 5 yards beyond the LoS a look.
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I chalk up Ertz slow starts the past two seasons to simply not being healthy. I would say a little last year had to do with new system/rookie QB but mainly injuries. In 2015 he had that groin surgery, made it back for week one but I think was clearly not 100% until later in the season. Last year he got hurt after week one and missed a few weeks.
Rudolph led TE's in targets last season. I don't think that ever happens again, I think we've seen his ceiling.
Pwingles
Footballguy
shipping to a contender, id want a 2nd. shipping to a bad team, id take some picks that were later, but would insist on it being multiple if i couldnt squeeze a 2nd out of them
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I traded Dak for him towards the end of the season--making a push.
I'd say 2.01 - 2.03 in 6 pt leagues.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Mind expanding on this a bit? I've watched a lot more Witten than Ertz, but I don't see it.
Reliable route runners, fantastic at finding soft spot in zone, consistent hands, both type of TE that QB's trust and lean on to make a play, all around consistent games, nothing flashy, similar size/speed. Both are the kind of TE's that can get open underneath with ease and constant frequency.
Massive drawback of both is despite the size neither is much of a red zone threat. I think mainly due to fact both have poor verticals, neither have much of an air game. Ertz I know also has short arms, not sure what Wittens measures. Chain moving TE's, not big play TE's.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'm not giving up anything for Garoppolo, and would trade him for an early 3rd. The QB spot is such that there's no reason to gamble on guys like him.
Tyrell is hard for me to put a price tag on. I'm not as confident in Allen as the market, so I'd like to buy him. But I've gotten cold feet when considering offers for him. I'd happily move guys like Marshall, Decker, Edelman, or Fitzgerald for him. I'd take him over guys like Permian, Fuller and Lockette. Maybe a late first?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Yeah, I'd say that's all fair. As fantasy assets, perhaps the comp works. I just haven't seen enough to compare him to Witten as NFL players. Not that you made that claim; just my reaction when reading it.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I've always applied the label based on talent, not production. Larry Fitzgerald was a stud when he was putting up WR3 numbers, Moss was a stud in Oakland, Hopkins is a stud today.
I'd include Dez in that group. It's easy to explain the dip in production over the last two years, as he played through injuries and caught passes from a number of different QBs, some of them awful. But watching him play, he's the same guy he's always been, for the most part. Maybe not quite as explosive as he was when he was returning punts, but he's running the right routes now and is still plenty gifted, physically. He's a movable fantasy asset, especially on rebuilding rosters. But he's a stud in my book.
FUBAR
Footballguy
agreed, though I like this a lot better:
I'd take Dak for Brees easily. Wasn't a bad move for you making a push, but on pure value, Dak is worth more.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'd likely take Dak in a vacuum as well, but it's close for me. Hard to turn away those 3-5 PPG when QBs are so cheap right now. I also owned Mariota, who I prefer to Dak, FWIW.
FUBAR
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Warhogs
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Much like some of the other oldies but goodies, I am not opposed to spending a late 1st on Brees if I really don't have a good QB on the roster.
With a strong team outside of the QB position, adding 100 points or so per year for a few years doesn't seem like a bad idea for that price.
FUBAR
Footballguy
I wanted to argue against this, but you're onto something. Depending on scoring he might give you a 5 point bump each week from the #12 option. That's probably worth the late 1st.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
QBs are hard to trade, even the top QBs. You really have to get a little lucky and hope that one or two competitive teams are weak at QB (which isn't all that common right now) and also competitive, and hope that one of them is willing to get aggressive for a top scoring QB.
In startup drafts the value of the QBs seems to be a lot higher than their trade values in existing leagues.
But, my philosophy that has worked wonders for me in the high stakes leagues is using late 1sts to continue to acquire good scoring vets who have a legit 2-3 years left in them.
PLus a lot of times you can get better future trade value by making these deals. For example, using guys previously talked about, say you buy Brees and Edelman for pick 11 and 12. How high of a pick do you think you can get by packaging picks 11 and 12? How high of a pick do you think you can get by packaging Brees and Edelman to a team wanting to win?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
In my only current high stakes league, EVERY team has a good QB. There is no market at all for QBs.
FUBAR
Footballguy
I'd love to see how this works out. First, you'd need a contender to have a higher pick. Then you'd need them to want those two players more than a top prospect.
Most of the time I'd bet you'd get a higher pick trading the 11 and 12 than trading Brees/Edelman.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
A higher pick, or just a younger (or more valuable) good player and do a 2 for 1. Before the season starts it seems everyone wants to win (even when they should KNOW that they can't), and they make moves to try and make their team better.
If a team needs a QB, they might be more inclined to deal a more valuable WR for the Brees/Edelman combo.
Or if a team needs a WR they might swap Rodgers for Brees/Edelman.
If I don't think I can do something like this I would look to deal picks 11/12 for future 1sts, or even just 1 future 1st of the by far worst team in the league who has no shot at the playoffs, and look to use that pick/s at the trade deadline.
BAsically, I have done stuff like this a bunch of times. It's how you win three straight titles in a high stakes league and have Rodgers, Bell, David Johnson, Mccoy, Dez, Julio, Green, and Jordy on the roster
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
People often discount the value of future picks, in this case 2018 draft picks. So if trade partners are willing, it could be possible to buy Brees and Edelman for late 2017 1st and still be able to trade those players away for 2018 1st round picks. You likely could trade those picks directly for the 2018 picks as well.
Actually turning a profit off of this is what I find questionable. If you keep Brees and Edelman for the 2017 season, you won't be getting the 2018 rookie pick discount anymore, as they won't be a year away. You could trade for 2019 picks with the discount following the 2017 season however.
As well they should. Just off the top of my head, there are 16 QBs I'd feel great about starting heading into next year.
Matt's Eagles
Footballguy
What's Spencer Ware worth to everyone?
FUBAR
Footballguy
Yep. While there's a decent gap between brees and Wentz/Bortles/Eli in redraft, it's probably not enough to give a 1st. If it's a 12 team league your last starter is probably Winston or Mariota, both of which are arguably worth more than brees.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Really the time to deal a qb is when there is a key injury. When his qb went down, it left a guy in my league with only case keenum, I traded mariota for 2017 1st (1.7). Perfect storm, but I was also right on top of it with an offer. The guy was like 4-1 and had a decent roster, got bumped early in playoffs, so I lucked out, but a 1st is still better than the price I paid. I also traded teddy b to a team that was clearly rebuilding for Marvin jones, so it can be done but it's situational. When the situation arises you have to strike though. If I went into last year with palmer and osweiler, I probably felt like I had something at least startable for a couple years and a young backup. At least not putting a priority on that spot. Now that outlook is quite different.
JackReacher
Footballguy
TY Hilton; thoughts on this guy? Led league in receiving yards; 155 targets. Still doesn't score a lot, 6 touchdowns a year like clockwork. I'm thinking about selling, but having trouble placing his value.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
Still young-ish at 27, signed with the Colts for a few more years, has Andrew Luck, plays in a dome.
Seems to have a high floor and fairly high ceiling.
To me seems like a pretty good bet for WR-2 numbers for a while with definite WR-1 potential, which represents pretty nice value. If you are a RB needy team I don't see you getting good value in trading him for a RB (barring bad deals from the bad owners of course).
JackReacher
Footballguy
Have thoughts of using him to get in near/top of rookie draft; wondering if fair to ask for some on top of that
ghostguy123
Footballguy
How close to the top are we talking? Likely can't get 1/2.
I actually think 3 would be doable for some people looking to compete who could use a WR.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Unless another RB gets taken into a good spot in the late 1st I would probably trade the 1.03 for Hilton. I'd rather have him than any of the WRs in this year's class.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
While I do like Cook a lot I would trade the 1st overall pick for Hilton straight up.
I would likely be willing to pay a bit more than that for him, like a 3rd or a player I am not very high on, but not too much more. I would likely balk at the suggestion of the 1st overall and 2nd round pick for example. If it were the 3rd overall I am still not sure, but maybe, if it was the 6th overall pick then the second would be reasonable, or perhaps a bargain.
I am being cheap though, as top WR generally go for two 1st round picks not one. Hilton certainly is that and as a seller I wouldn't part with him for less than that.
I haven't gotten rookie fever yet though. It isn't in full swing yet. Maybe you can get Hilton for the 3rd overall pick straight up now. I would much rather have Hilton than Davis or Mike Williams.
I would likely be willing to pay a bit more than that for him, like a 3rd or a player I am not very high on, but not too much more. I would likely balk at the suggestion of the 1st overall and 2nd round pick for example. If it were the 3rd overall I am still not sure, but maybe, if it was the 6th overall pick then the second would be reasonable, or perhaps a bargain.
I am being cheap though, as top WR generally go for two 1st round picks not one. Hilton certainly is that and as a seller I wouldn't part with him for less than that.
I haven't gotten rookie fever yet though. It isn't in full swing yet. Maybe you can get Hilton for the 3rd overall pick straight up now. I would much rather have Hilton than Davis or Mike Williams.
bostonfred
Footballguy
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