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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (4 Viewers)

Paid 2 1sts (more or less) for Hilton last offseason as part of a larger package, and was not disappointed being able to plug him in as a WR2.  In that case, they were late 1sts, but I would have given any single pick other than 1.1 last year for him. 

Like others, I'd happily deal away this year's 1.3 for him.  I'd also think a solid, young WR in a good spot is better value than the 1.1/1.2, but given the way those picks get hyped and valued around draft time, I'd be fishing for something back with Hilton in return.  Just because I thought I could pull it off.

 
1.1>>>hilton for me.

I like Hilton but he isnt a stud talent and I think pick 1 this year might just get you a stud talent in a good situation

 
1.1>>>hilton for me.

I like Hilton but he isnt a stud talent and I think pick 1 this year might just get you a stud talent in a good situation
Agreed, I would wait til after the draft before I'd give up a top 3 pick for Hilton. Any of these guys could fall into the "perfect" situation just like Zeke.

 I'm currently negotiating for Hilton now but this going to be a lengthy process lol!

Tex

 
Agreed, I would wait til after the draft before I'd give up a top 3 pick for Hilton. Any of these guys could fall into the "perfect" situation just like Zeke.

 I'm currently negotiating for Hilton now but this going to be a lengthy process lol!

Tex
The Cowboys will not be drafting Cook top 5. So there is no perfect landing spot for the RB like Elliot last year available.

Players can land in bad spots too. While I agree the value of the draft picks will only go up, so perhaps too soon to sell them yet, If you can get Hilton for one rookie pick though I don't see any reason to wait for a better deal.

 
The Cowboys will not be drafting Cook top 5. So there is no perfect landing spot for the RB like Elliot last year available.

Players can land in bad spots too. While I agree the value of the draft picks will only go up, so perhaps too soon to sell them yet, If you can get Hilton for one rookie pick though I don't see any reason to wait for a better deal.
I disagree, Cook going to Indy would be a "perfect" spot for me. In that scenario I wouldn't move him so easily.

Honestly we don't really no where they'll land but regardless Draft picks value are their highest around draft time. Selling your pick now would not be advised unless your just dead set on a player and believe he's better than anyone in any scenario in this draft then trade away. I'm a Hilton fan but I'm going to wait it out and wait til my picks have reached their highest value. When ALL the draft heads are talking about how great and deep these rookies are and the buzz is completely out of control then I'm selling to get my maximum value to those owners who are willing to overpay.

Tex

 
That is fine as I don't think rookie fever has taken off yet.

Who are you going to get in trade that is better than TY Hilton though?  You can't buy much higher than that.

 
What's Spencer Ware worth to everyone?
I think you'd be doing well to get a late 1st for him right now, but most people won't want to pay more than an early 2nd for him. He kind of faded down the stretch this year and with the Charles situation being an unknown I think everyone is kind of in a holding pattern.

TY Hilton; thoughts on this guy? Led league in receiving yards; 155 targets. Still doesn't score a lot,  6 touchdowns a year like clockwork. I'm thinking about selling, but having trouble placing his value.
Personally, I think if Moncrief can stay healthy that Hilton drops back down to ~130 targets and becomes a fantasy WR2 again. Last year was a perfect storm for him so I think you'd be smart to sell high. I'm pretty shocked to see anyone say they'd give the 1.1 for him. If you need RB talent then approach the two guys in your league with 1.1 and 1.2 and see if they think like that. I doubt it, but you never know. Hilton is a nice talent, but he's not elite. He'll turn 28 during the season. Right now is probably the highest his value will be going forward.

 
I wanted to argue against this, but you're onto something.  Depending on scoring he might give you a 5 point bump each week from the #12 option.   That's probably worth the late 1st.


I think that my argument would be that if you're spending a late first on Brees, you might as well add a bit to it for Rodgers or Newton.  I think the VBD will likely end up justifying the investment, but I still wouldn't feel great about it, personally. 

 
What's CJ Anderson worth?
I believe this was discussed in this thread a week or two ago but to save you digging I think there were some saying late round 1 but most felt early to mid round 2.

I would say late round 1 or very early round 2 for me.

 
I believe this was discussed in this thread a week or two ago but to save you digging I think there were some saying late round 1 but most felt early to mid round 2.

I would say late round 1 or very early round 2 for me.
Thanks, Warhogs.  I was offered 2.01 and decide to take the pick.  I've already got three starting RBs and could use some young talent.

 
I think that my argument would be that if you're spending a late first on Brees, you might as well add a bit to it for Rodgers or Newton.  I think the VBD will likely end up justifying the investment, but I still wouldn't feel great about it, personally. 
Where can you get Rodgers or Newton for "a bit" more?  How much is a bit?

 
Where can you get Rodgers or Newton for "a bit" more?  How much is a bit?
Maybe "a bit" isn't the right term.  But DLF had asked Twitter if they'd prefer Rodgers or a "mid 1st"; they wanted the pick.  Elsewhere in this thread his value was placed at about that same spot.  I haven't seen Newton moved yet this offseason, but I've seen plenty of concerns expressed.  Andrew Luck is being moved, and even though he's not cheap, he's obtainable.  Guys like Winston and Mariota are a lot cheaper than they would have been 5 years ago.  

In such a buyer friendly market, if I'm paying in a non-QB currency, I'd aim a bit higher than Drew Brees myself.  But again, the math will justify the investment.  

 
Rodgers hasn't been a bit more in my leagues.  QB values in generally for my leagues seem inflated compared to here but it would seem acquiring Brees might cost me a late round 1 pick.  Rodgers and you are probably talking 2 round 1 picks and a pretty solid prospect to even be looked at.

 
Using DLF's Trade Finder, here are the recent trades in which Rodgers was the main piece.  


QB Aaron Rodgers, GB

Trade date: 2017-01-06


Decatur Staleys Bears [ roster · trades ]
QB Jimmy Garoppolo, NE
Year 2018 round 1 draft pick from Decatur Staleys Bears


Dynasty Gurus Football League
teams: 12 · start: 17 · roster: 50
positions: QB 1, RB 1-3, WR 2-4, TE 2, PK 1,
DT+DE 2-3, LB 3-4, CB+S 2-3
scoring: PaTD = *5 PPR = *1


QB Aaron Rodgers, GB

Trade date: 2017-01-06


Philly Cheesesteaks [ roster · trades ]
QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI
LB Vic Beasley, ATL


Good and the Bad
teams: 16 · start: 21 · roster: 50
positions: QB 2, RB 2-3, WR 3-5, TE 1-2, DT 1,
DE 2, LB 4, CB 2, S 2
scoring: PaTD = *4 PPR = *0.5


RB Devonta Freeman, ATL
Year 2017 round 2 draft pick from Pete Usset

Trade date: 2017-01-08


Ryan Preese [ roster · trades ]
QB Aaron Rodgers, GB
Year 2017 round 2 draft pick from Ryan Preese
Year 2018 round 1 draft pick from Ryan Preese


CP Dynasty
teams: 12 · start: 9 · roster: 23
positions: QB 1, RB 2-3, WR 2-3, TE 1-2, PK 1,
Def 1
scoring: PaTD = *4 PPR = *1


QB Matthew Stafford, DET
Year 2017 round 1 draft pick from '67 Impala

Trade date: 2017-01-12


Charger R/T roster · trades ]
QB Aaron Rodgers, GB


Barrett Jackson Dynasty League
teams: 12 · start: 10 · roster: 25
positions: QB 1, RB 2-3, WR 3-4, TE 1-2, PK 1,
Def 1
scoring: PaTD = *4 PPR = *1


QB Aaron Rodgers, GB

Trade date: 2017-01-13


Royale Wit Cheese [ roster · trades ]
Year 2017 round 3 draft pick from Royale Wit Cheese
Year 2018 round 1 draft pick from Royale Wit Cheese


Dynasty League
teams: 16 · start: 14 · roster: 40
positions: QB 1, RB 2-3, WR 2-3, TE 1-2, PK 1,
DT+DE 1-2, LB 2-3, CB+S 2-3
scoring: PaTD = *4 PPR = *1


@RavageFF [ roster · trades ]
QB Aaron Rodgers, GB

Trade date: 2017-01-20


Selling High @RockItDave [ roster · trades ]
QB Jameis Winston, TB
WR Quincy Enunwa, NYJ


Dynasty Tradecast Listener League 
teams: 12 · start: 8 · roster: 28
positions: QB 1, RB 1-5, WR 1-5, TE 1-5
scoring: PaTD = *4 PPR = *1


Leo [ roster · trades ]
QB Aaron Rodgers, GB

Trade date: 2017-01-26


Clever Team Name [ roster · trades ]
QB Drew Brees, NO
RB Rob Kelley, WAS


QB Matthew Stafford, DET
Year 2017 round 1 draft pick from '67 Impala

Trade date: 2017-01-12


Charger R/T roster · trades ]
QB Aaron Rodgers, GB


Barrett Jackson Dynasty League
teams: 12 · start: 10 · roster: 25
positions: QB 1, RB 2-3, WR 3-4, TE 1-2, PK 1,
Def 1
scoring: PaTD = *4 PPR = *1

 
It could be league setup but those trades aren't happening in my leagues.  Probably why I went a different route and didn't acquire Rodgers.  In most of those trades I agree I would go out and buy Rodgers.

 
Price check on Peterson?

Was a contending team last year ended up winning it all though luckily.   I sent Peterson for 1.5 (Michael Thomas) in April 2016 - FAIL.

 
hard to find buyers on AP right now, I think best you can hope for is a mid 2nd. For me he is a hold right now, I'll gamble he settles in as a starter somewhere for one more year

 
I think you are lucky if you can find a buyer at mid round 2 value for AP right now.  If you aren't a contender I think I sell for that. 

 
Price check on Peterson?

Was a contending team last year ended up winning it all though luckily.   I sent Peterson for 1.5 (Michael Thomas) in April 2016 - FAIL.



Year 2017 round 2 draft pick from Kingston Cowboys

Trade date: 2017-01-13


The Megatronless Lions [ roster · trades ]
RB Adrian Peterson, MIN


Dynasty Degenerates League 2
teams: 12 · start: 10 · roster: 27
positions: QB 1-2, RB 2-5, WR 3-6, TE 1-4
scoring: PaTD = *6 PPR = *1


WR J.J. Nelson, ARI
TE Cameron Brate, TB

Trade date: 2017-01-17


BABY CA$H [ roster · trades ]
RB Adrian Peterson, MIN
WR Quinton Patton, SF


FFLS Blue Dynasty 2
teams: 12 · start: 10 · roster: 22
positions: QB 1, RB 1-3, WR 3-5, TE 1-2, PK 1,
Def 1
scoring: PaTD = *6 PPR = *1


RB Adrian Peterson, MIN

Trade date: 2017-01-21


The Dove Boat [ roster · trades ]
WR Marvin Jones, DET


The Dynasty League
teams: 14 · start: 14 · roster: 30
positions: QB 1, RB 1-3, WR 1-3, TE 1-2, PK 0-1,
DT+DE 1-2, LB 3, CB+S 3
scoring: PaTD = *6 PPR = *1


RB Adrian Peterson, MIN
Year 2018 round 3 draft pick from Baker Street Steelers

Trade date: 2017-01-26


Tooting Jazz [ roster · trades ]
Year 2017 round 2 draft pick from Kingston Cowboys
Year 2018 round 2 draft pick from Tooting Jazz


London All-Star Dynasty Showcase
teams: 12 · start: 12 · roster: 25
positions: QB 1, RB 2-4, WR 2-4, TE 1-3, PK 1,
DT+DE 1, LB 1, CB+S 1
scoring: PaTD = *4 PPR = *1




RB Adrian Peterson, MIN

Trade date: 2017-02-06


Crazed Dogs [ roster · trades ]
Year 2018 round 4 draft pick from Crazed Dogs


NFL Dynasty League
teams: 16 · start: 19 · roster: 50
positions: QB 1, RB 1-2, WR 2-4, TE 1-2, PK 1,
DT 1-2, DE 2-3, LB 3-4, CB 2-3, S 2-3
scoring: PaTD = *6 PPR = *1


RB CJ Prosise, SEA
WR Eli Rogers, PIT

Trade date: 2017-02-07


Gateway Ballers [ roster · trades ]
RB Eddie Lacy, GB
RB Adrian Peterson, MIN


Pro Dynasty Football
teams: 14 · start: 9 · roster: 30
positions: QB 1, RB 2-4, WR 3-5, TE 1-3
scoring: PaTD = *4 PPR = *1




RB Adrian Peterson, MIN

Trade date: 2017-02-07


TheDonkeys [ roster · trades ]
Year 2017 round 3 draft pick from TheDonkeys


Kearney Masters Dynasty League
teams: 12 · start: 12 · roster: 21
positions: QB 1-2, RB 2-3, WR 3-4, TE 1-2, PK 1-2,
DT+DE 0-3, LB 0-3, CB+S 0-3, Def 0-2
scoring: PaTD = *4 PPR = *1

 
Price check on Peterson?

Was a contending team last year ended up winning it all though luckily.   I sent Peterson for 1.5 (Michael Thomas) in April 2016 - FAIL.
Got moved for basically Stills and a 2018#3 in an FFPC league of mine a few weeks ago. I was in middle of trade talks with the Peterson owner but on another deal and was just about to add into the deal me giving 2.11 and him putting Peterson in the deal but this one went down first. FWIW he was a take over owner so also had no investment in Peterson.

I don't own him in dynasty but I'd pay at least a late second.

 
I'd love to hear others opinions on this.  I have an insane number of top flight WRs in my main dynasty (e.g., using ZWK's last rankings, I have 6 of the top 8).  I have one owner who is hot and heavy to acquire one of them.  He won't let go of the 1.01 (that he earned).  He also has the 1.11 and 2.01.  Is it selling Watkins or AJG to cheap to ask for those two picks plus Howard?  Or am I asking too much?

I've tried hard to move one of my WR1 in a deal to grab one of the big 3 RBs, but nobody will deal.

I do have the 1.04 and 1.07 and plan to just pick BPA at each.

Or is it best to just sit tight and horde the top WRs and add BPA with my picks?  I do like to trade (too much).

 
If I were rebuilding, I wouldn't sell Howard and two late 1sts for AJG.  I'd consider that if I were in your shoes, but with 1.04/1.07 you're in prime position to add at least one decent RB option (two if you passed on Davis or Williams at 1.04) so I wouldn't be in a hurry to sell a WR cheap.

 
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Hankmoody said:
Huh?  If you sent Peterson and got Thomas that would be a huge win.
Since he's trying to move Peterson now, I assume he really meant he sent the 1.05 for Peterson last April.

 
Jamaal Charles?  Would his value be similar to ADP?  
Thinking about it, I should likely be careful about posting too much of their subscriber data.  I respect those folks.  That and I'm lazy.  I took a quick peak and think it's fair to say that Charles is a little bit cheaper than Peterson, but in the same ballpark.  I'd guess that has at least something to do with people being higher on Ware than McKinnon.  

 
Thinking about it, I should likely be careful about posting too much of their subscriber data.  I respect those folks.  That and I'm lazy.  I took a quick peak and think it's fair to say that Charles is a little bit cheaper than Peterson, but in the same ballpark.  I'd guess that has at least something to do with people being higher on Ware than McKinnon.  
TradeDB isn't subscriber access.

 
Got into a little friendly argument with a leaguemate about our 2QB league.  Is Alex Smith considered a starting caliber QB.  I say he is.  He hasn't finished outside of the top20 QB's so simple math right?  10 teams, 2QBs, = 20 starting QB's right?  Even more valuable in 12+ team leagues as well right?  Like I said he's finished top20 the last 3 years in a row (lowest being 20th, highest position being 14th).  Obviously he isn't a high ceiling guy or anything.  So what is he worth?

 
Got into a little friendly argument with a leaguemate about our 2QB league.  Is Alex Smith considered a starting caliber QB.  I say he is.  He hasn't finished outside of the top20 QB's so simple math right?  10 teams, 2QBs, = 20 starting QB's right?  Even more valuable in 12+ team leagues as well right?  Like I said he's finished top20 the last 3 years in a row (lowest being 20th, highest position being 14th).  Obviously he isn't a high ceiling guy or anything.  So what is he worth?
Has any team that owned him won or even 2nd. He doesn't get hurt so he'll always be around 20 or so. Personally I'd avoid him like the plague

 
Has any team that owned him won or even 2nd. He doesn't get hurt so he'll always be around 20 or so. Personally I'd avoid him like the plague
He's been on a champions roster twice now as a backup or "3rd string" or whatever as a bye week filler but not as a starter.  

 
He's been on a champions roster twice now as a backup or "3rd string" or whatever as a bye week filler but not as a starter.  
Exactly. That's where he makes sense. You try to have two top12 guys so you have difference makers, and Smith is just a bye week or injury filler that is very solid in that role. As a stater, he puts you behind almost half the league. 

 
He's been on a champions roster twice now as a backup or "3rd string" or whatever as a bye week filler but not as a starter.  
You win if your #1 QB stays upright, you are seriously weak if you lose your #1 QB. I would never have the guy and I have Matt Ryan.

 
Which makes his value what?  He's a guy whose finished as a top20 QB, so he's a glorified QB3 worth a late 1st?  Or is it even worse than that?

 
Zyphros said:
Which makes his value what?  He's a guy whose finished as a top20 QB, so he's a glorified QB3 worth a late 1st?  Or is it even worse than that?
A lot of this depends on your starting requirements. 

You are talking about Smith as a top 20 QB in fantasy. That is worth next to nothing in a start 1 QB league fewer than 16 teams. Smith is a QB who might be useful in a good match up but most of the time will be a below average starter. He is worth not much at all in that format.

In a superflex or start 2 QB league then Alex Smith has some value because teams need enough QBs that Smith would be a starter every week or should be if he is a top 20 QB. He is above the QB 24 baseline, although only slightly. The scarcity of the position in this format makes all of the QB worth quite a bit more and you might be able to get as much as a 2nd round pick for him in that format from a team that really needed a QB.

Smith didn't run the ball as much last season as he has in the past. He is getting older, so if he stops adding extra value as a runner going forward, he may not be a top 20 QB anymore. He will be 33 in May and so he has moved out of the peak QB window of 28-32 now.

 
I am beyond confident that barring something crazy, Edelman will stay in NE.

No other team is going to give him some crazy deal that NE couldn't match.  Why would they?  He is a system guy with success tied to Brady.

And as for the 2-3 years, I am very confident he will have 2 more good years.  If he had 3 or more that would just be a bonus.  Again, we are talking about pick 12 which is likely a bust and wasted roster spot on a team, with slight chance of landing a really good player.  If you trade pick 12 for an Edelman clone every year, you are going to stay good forever. 
Just traded 2.10 in a 12-team dynasty league (1PPR), so I'm assuming I did just fine here.

Boggles my mind a bit as I got him from the guy who I traded Edelman to this past October (with Eddie Royal and Hunter Henry) for 2 1st round rookie picks this year.  (Ended up with 1.01 and 1.09.  Sometimes you just get lucky.)

He initiated both trades.

 
Just traded 2.10 in a 12-team dynasty league (1PPR), so I'm assuming I did just fine here.

Boggles my mind a bit as I got him from the guy who I traded Edelman to this past October (with Eddie Royal and Hunter Henry) for 2 1st round rookie picks this year.  (Ended up with 1.01 and 1.09.  Sometimes you just get lucky.)

He initiated both trades.
Thumbs up on that deal IMO.

 
Just traded 2.10 in a 12-team dynasty league (1PPR), so I'm assuming I did just fine here.

Boggles my mind a bit as I got him from the guy who I traded Edelman to this past October (with Eddie Royal and Hunter Henry) for 2 1st round rookie picks this year.  (Ended up with 1.01 and 1.09.  Sometimes you just get lucky.)

He initiated both trades.
Only thing I can think of is that guy was trying to collude with you without you knowing it.  Maybe he has a side bet on you winning the league :P

 
What is Langford worth as a handcuff to a Howard owner?  16 man IDP league, can I get him for a 3rd?

 
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What is Langford worth as a handcuff to a Howard owner?  16 man IDP league, can I get him for a 3rd?
How many starters per position?   If you have to start a large number of players (1 QB, 2-4 RB, 3-6 WR, 1-2 TE, 1 K, 2-3 DL, 3-5 LB, 3-5 DB) then Langford may be worth more than a third since he will still potentially hold value with that many positions in a 1 team league.   However, if it is a small number of starters per position, a third may be the perfect amount or possibly even too much to offer for him.   Obviously, value is subjective, but it does depend largely on those starting positions, I would say.  In IDP leagues you may get the best defensive player in the draft in the third (unlikely given 16 picks per round, but possible).

 
What is Langford worth as a handcuff to a Howard owner?  16 man IDP league, can I get him for a 3rd?
That seems like a reasonable offer. Maybe even a bit rich. 16 teams requires 32 starting RB if you have to start two. I am not sure exactly where Landford would fall in a RB ranking right now, but likely lower than RB 50 and below the starter baseline, which means he doesn't really have any value.

Having the handcuff insurance is something that has no value as long as Howard stays healthy.

Considering the number of teams 16 and that there are IDP players as well, you may want to try offering a fourth round pick instead, since those picks may actually have some value in your format, while Langford is a player still below the replacement level. A guy you would likely cut to pick up a free agent RB in a better situation during the season.

Because of the strong TE class I think those 3rd round picks have a bit more value than a typical year. So while a 3rd round pick doesn't have much value, it actually does have some value in your format (due to IDP) and also because of the strength of this draft class.

 
How much more valuable in picks is Rodgers than Wilson in 12 Team PPR start 1 QB dynasty league?  

4 points per pass TD and 1 point per 25 yards passing.

2014-2016 Rodgers PPG: 21,19,24

2014-2016  Wilsons PPG: 21,21,17

I feel like 2016 was outlier due to wilsons injury and Rodgers having to throw and run much more than usual.

I have a deal on the table to "upgrade" from Wilson to Rodgers but not sure if it's worth the trip. I think recency bias is clouding my judgment on their relative value in this format.

 
How much more valuable in picks is Rodgers than Wilson in 12 Team PPR start 1 QB dynasty league?  

4 points per pass TD and 1 point per 25 yards passing.

2014-2016 Rodgers PPG: 21,19,24

2014-2016  Wilsons PPG: 21,21,17

I feel like 2016 was outlier due to wilsons injury and Rodgers having to throw and run much more than usual.

I have a deal on the table to "upgrade" from Wilson to Rodgers but not sure if it's worth the trip. I think recency bias is clouding my judgment on their relative value in this format.
A lot for me.  You don't get many chances to add a difference maker like Rogers.  Kind of the opposite of our discussion about Bortles, Rogers is pretty well irreplaceable and you can't get those points anywhere else.  What are you working with?  Picks?

 
A lot for me.  You don't get many chances to add a difference maker like Rogers.  Kind of the opposite of our discussion about Bortles, Rogers is pretty well irreplaceable and you can't get those points anywhere else.  What are you working with?  Picks?
Rodgers/Ingram/2.3 for Wilson/Kevin White/1.12/2.11/2018 2

This is the deal I'm working with. I see it as Ingram=White (maybe more like Ingram/2.3 for White/1.12 but I'm higher on White than most) so Rodgers/2.3 for Wilson/1.12/2.11/.2018 2.

 

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