Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (5 Viewers)

[Adso]

What in the world is a good price for Josh Jacobs, and is there any light at the end of the tunnel? With a reset of expectations might he still be a good value target as a second, third or flex RB?

I get the cons: deconstructed OL, Drake capping his targets and taking some carries, his 2020 3.9ypc before those two things happened, and the boom/bust nature of his game to game scoring.

On the other hand: he's only 23.5y/o (younger than Najee), a 1st round draft pick, probably guaranteed 250+ carries and most of the goal line looks, entrenched as the RB1 on his team for 2-3 more years, and over his first two seasons in the league he already has 2200+ yards and 22TD's.

2021 looks like it could be rough for him and the Raiders, but he's still going to be a young, talented lead back with a lot of opportunity for the next 2-3 years barring injury. Clay's projections has him going 257/1043/9 34/45/259/1 this year. That seems like a pretty sweet line for your team's RB3/FLEX and possible career ceiling #'s for any of the RB's in this year's rookie draft beyond the top 4. 

What would you pay and what would you sell for?

 

[Gally]

What in the world is a good price for Josh Jacobs, and is there any light at the end of the tunnel? With a reset of expectations might he still be a good value target as a second or flex RB?

I get the cons: deconstructed OL, Drake capping his targets and taking some carries, his 2020 3.9ypc before those two things happened, and the boom/bust nature of his game to game scoring.

On the other hand: he's only 23.5y/o (younger than Najee), a 1st round draft pick, probably guaranteed 250+ carries and most of the goal line looks, entrenched as the RB! on his team for 2-3 more years, and in two seasons in the league he already has 2200+ yards and 22TD's.

2021 looks like it could be rough for him and the Raiders, but he's still going to be a young, talented lead back with a lot of opportunity for the next 2-3 years barring injury. Clay's projections has him going 257/1043/9 34/45/259/1 this year. That seems like a pretty sweet line for your team's RB3/FLEX and possible career ceiling #'s for any of the RB's in this year's rookie draft beyond the top 4. 

What would you pay and what would you sell for?

I recently traded him for pick 1.11 (Sermon) and 4.11 (Rountree) and only did that because I really wanted Sermon.  I tried moving him for picks starting at 1.06 with the intention of taking Sermon and it took until pick 1.11 before I had a taker.  

 

[Atomic Punk]

Raider fans here so take my opinion with a grain of salt. I still like the guy and value him ahead of Etienne and Williams, so I would be hard pressed to move him for a late 1st. I think the OL issues are overstated and even if Drake takes his share, there will be more than enough to sustain low RB1 numbers for Jacobs.

 

[Atomic Punk]

Couldn't agree more. If you don't believe in you own abilities then why are you even playing? But people do. And they are *terrified* of making mistakes. I don't understand it.

Agree completely. This one proposed deal had me questioning my valuation due to the discrepancy with all of the trade calculators I use. I’m not one to lean on them too much but like to use them as a reference point, and in this case they all basically indicate Thomas has double the value if Sermon (league specifics aside). 

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

The problem here is that Thomas' production slipped already this past season. If Winston or Hill don't step up, his value will continue to sink. I have some faith in Winston being effective and actually being better for Thomas than Brees was with an arm that looked shot - but obviously that can go South quickly if "bad" Winston shows up. I don't have much faith in Hill at all, and I have fear that Payton wants to make him work.

In this case I'd probably hold onto Sermon.

I guess I am maybe in the minority here but... I think Winston @ QB helps Michael Thomas value.  Winston will forcefeed balls to MT and while Winston's value might not be great at QB, I think MT's value will be significantly higher than it was last year.  I would make the trade, hold the better player and trade that player for picks.  Again, depending on how active your league is. 

 

[barackdhouse]

Agree completely. This one proposed deal had me questioning my valuation due to the discrepancy with all of the trade calculators I use. I’m not one to lean on them too much but like to use them as a reference point, and in this case they all basically indicate Thomas has double the value if Sermon (league specifics aside). 

I think Thomas should get more than Sermon as well. But if you're not competing then Thomas is just wasted on your roster. I wouldn't do it without more on the Sermon side. 

 

[barackdhouse]

I guess I am maybe in the minority here but... I think Winston @ QB helps Michael Thomas value.  Winston will forcefeed balls to MT and while Winston's value might not be great at QB, I think MT's value will be significantly higher than it was last year.  I would make the trade, hold the better player and trade that player for picks.  Again, depending on how active your league is. 

I think he bounces back on the field but his market isn't going to be better when he is 30.

 

[Spike]

Saquon.

Starting to wonder if he's the "all that" in most dynasty rankings.

What would it take for you to ship him out in you're a contender?

 

[Gally]

Saquon.

Starting to wonder if he's the "all that" in most dynasty rankings.

What would it take for you to ship him out in you're a contender?

If I am a contender I don't think I could get enough.  If I am in a rebuild and don't have anything else I would sell full price (top 5 RB price)

 

[Spike]

If I am a contender I don't think I could get enough.  If I am in a rebuild and don't have anything else I would sell full price (top 5 RB price)

Sermon/DK/Samuel/Chase Young/2022 1st?

 

[Gally]

Sermon/DK/Samuel/Chase Young/2022 1st?

I would take that package assuming the IDP side is meaningful scoring wise

 

[Spike]

I would take that package assuming the IDP side is meaningful scoring wise

Trade was rejected.  No response or counter.

 

[Gally]

Trade was rejected.  No response or counter.

How valuable is the IDP side of things?  How many starters vs offensive starters and do they score comparably?

 

[Spike]

How valuable is the IDP side of things?  How many starters vs offensive starters and do they score comparably?

The league is non-PPR (Zealots Field).  We start 1QB/2-4RB/2-4WR/1-3TE/3DL/3RLB/3DB.  For the IDPs, top LBs typically rule the IDP roost; top DEs (like Young) are right after them.  The top 20ish (give or take) are usually LBs.  Offensive players dominate the IDPs.

 

[Gally]

The league is non-PPR (Zealots Field).  We start 1QB/2-4RB/2-4WR/1-3TE/3DL/3RLB/3DB.  For the IDPs, top LBs typically rule the IDP roost; top DEs (like Young) are right after them.  The top 20ish (give or take) are usually LBs.  Offensive players dominate the IDPs.

I took over an orphan Zealots team this past March so I haven't gone through a season but am familiar with the format now.  My league seems to favor some of the upper end DL's as I have been trying to acquire some with no luck.  I would think Young would have been a decent value to get but as you said offense seems to dominate the scoring so that might be the downfall.  If Young was highly valued I think the deal was a good one for the Barkley owner.  If not I can see where it missed.  

 

[rockaction]

Trade was rejected.  No response or counter.

That's a really solid offer, bordering on Godfather. Maybe he's not trading Saquon. You'll probably have a better team with all those pieces intact instead of having just Saquon, anyway, so you win in the end, because you'd have hated that trade come later in the year, IMO.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

How would you rank these as a dynasty stash?

WR: Ruggs, Reagor, Mims, Bryan Edwards, Hardman, rookie 3.01

RB: Damien Harris, Gus Edwards, AJ Dillon, Singletary, Kerryon Johnson.

 

[Blick]

How would you rank these as a dynasty stash?

WR: Ruggs, Reagor, Mims, Bryan Edwards, Hardman, rookie 3.01

RB: Damien Harris, Gus Edwards, AJ Dillon, Singletary, Kerryon Johnson.

WRs: I'd probably switch Hardman and 3.01.

RB:  Switch Edwards and Dillon.  

 

[barackdhouse]

How would you rank these as a dynasty stash?

WR:Bryan Edwards, Hardman, Reagor, Ruggs, rookie 3.01, Mims

RB: Damien Harris, AJ Dillon, Gus Edwards, Singletary, Kerryon Johnson

 

[Gally]

How would you rank these as a dynasty stash?

WR: Ruggs, Reagor, Mims, Bryan Edwards, Hardman, rookie 3.01

RB: Damien Harris, Gus Edwards, AJ Dillon, Singletary, Kerryon Johnson.

As a pure stash I want extremely high upside and don't really care if they flame out because they are end of the bench and can be dropped if a need arises.  Here is how I would have them:

1. Ruggs - high draft capital and elite speed.  
   
2. Reagor - If Hurts hits and Reagor meets last year's expectations it could be great.
   
3. Mims - If Wilson is the real deal he could be sneaky good (provided he wins a role)
   
4. Hardman - Chiefs
   
5. Edwards 
   
6. Pick
   

For RB's (the bottom three I don't see much upside to):

1.  Dillon - Highest upside with that offense assuming Rodgers.
   
2. Harris - If by some chance BB decides to settle on one guy (but it's a slim chance)
   
3. Singletary - no confidence but if Moss gets hurt and ???
   
4. Kerryon - just a dart throw
   
5. Gus - I like him a lot and would prefer him if I was looking for depth instead of just a high upside stash
   

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

As a pure stash I want extremely high upside and don't really care if they flame out because they are end of the bench and can be dropped if a need arises.  

Yep, this was what I was after with the question, and I will add that I assess value to getting a verdict as early as possible.   I'm not very bullish on Hardman to become a polished WR, but the fact that he's a Chief and that there's a permanent opening at WR2 as opposed to a mid-season injury, gives me hope that if it's going to happen, it will happen early in the season.   If it's a WR2-by-committee where he doesn't stand out or flash with big plays, then that will be an extremely confident drop in week 4 when I'm looking to add.  Nice to have his rookie baseline to monitor his progress.   The "early verdict" is also something I like about Hurts compared to some of the other rookie QBs.  

Mims on the other hand, I'm not optimistic for 2021, but I could still see him coming back to haunt me if I drop him.

I was offered a trade to bring in Reagor.   Initial impression was that I was pretty intrigued.   The more I think about it, it feels like a potential roster clogger.   Valuable if you need depth and a quality WR3/4, but not sure that the upside of a top WR2 is there, even though he might be the most likely to stick around as fantasy relevant.     

 

[Blick]

As a pure stash I want extremely high upside and don't really care if they flame out because they are end of the bench and can be dropped if a need arises.  Here is how I would have them:

1. Ruggs - high draft capital and elite speed.  
   
2. Reagor - If Hurts hits and Reagor meets last year's expectations it could be great.
   
3. Mims - If Wilson is the real deal he could be sneaky good (provided he wins a role)
   
4. Hardman - Chiefs
   
5. Edwards 
   
6. Pick
   

For RB's (the bottom three I don't see much upside to):

1.  Dillon - Highest upside with that offense assuming Rodgers.
   
2. Harris - If by some chance BB decides to settle on one guy (but it's a slim chance)
   
3. Singletary - no confidence but if Moss gets hurt and ???
   
4. Kerryon - just a dart throw
   
5. Gus - I like him a lot and would prefer him if I was looking for depth instead of just a high upside stash
   

I feel like Ruggs is in a system that just doesn't fit his abilities.  He's a speed guy on an offense that highlights the power running game and the passing game goes through the TE.  Just a bad spot and waste of talent.

NY loves Mims so much they spent a bunch of money on Davis in a down free agent market, draft Moore with the 2nd pick in the 2nd round, and resign Crowder.

Both have a ton of upside, but might not be realized for a while.    

 

[Gally]

I feel like Ruggs is in a system that just doesn't fit his abilities.  He's a speed guy on an offense that highlights the power running game and the passing game goes through the TE.  Just a bad spot and waste of talent.

NY loves Mims so much they spent a bunch of money on Davis in a down free agent market and draft a Moore.  

I agree about Ruggs and the fit  but he has the most upside to me.  As a bench stash that is what I am looking for.  It's the only reason I have him at #1 on that list.  If they somehow figure out how to use him he could be big.

 

[dipandglide]

How would you rank these as a dynasty stash?

WR: Ruggs, Reagor, Mims, Bryan Edwards, Hardman, rookie 3.01

RB: Damien Harris, Gus Edwards, AJ Dillon, Singletary, Kerryon Johnson.

Ruggs, Hardman, Mims, Reagor, 3.01

Dillon, Harris, Singlerary, Edwards, Johnson

I don't understand why people are writing off Ruggs so quickly. Give him a chance to develop. 

 

[Tau837]

Opinions on Van Jefferson?

Compared to last year, TE Everett, WR Reynolds, and RB Brown are gone, vacating 176 targets. Jefferson will enter his second year with NFL experience and a real offseason/training camp, while Woods and Kupp are a year older. QB is upgraded with Stafford. The team brought in Desean Jackson, but he has had trouble staying on the field. They also brought in Atwell, but perhaps primarily as a return man?

 

[King of the Jungle]

Opinions on Van Jefferson?

Compared to last year, TE Everett, WR Reynolds, and RB Brown are gone, vacating 176 targets. Jefferson will enter his second year with NFL experience and a real offseason/training camp, while Woods and Kupp are a year older. QB is upgraded with Stafford. The team brought in Desean Jackson, but he has had trouble staying on the field. They also brought in Atwell, but perhaps primarily as a return man?

A lot will depend on Desean’s ability to stay healthy. If he does and Jefferson has similar production as last year I will look to acquire near end of year.

 

[ryno1980]

Ruggs, Hardman, Mims, Reagor, 3.01

Dillon, Harris, Singlerary, Edwards, Johnson

I don't understand why people are writing off Ruggs so quickly. Give him a chance to develop. 

You left out Bryan Edwards. Just curious where you would have him 

 

[BespokeJort]

A lot will depend on Desean’s ability to stay healthy. If he does and Jefferson has similar production as last year I will look to acquire near end of year.

How much do we like the talent here? If he still hasn’t produced at the end of this year we’re buying for a next season where he’ll be 26 having done nothing

I swooped him off the wire for free to see if he wins the wr3 role but can’t see paying much of anything for him 

 

[Catbird]

I have a slight bias against coaches sons. I feel they likely got to the top in part because of the years of focused coaching mixed with physical attributes. For players coming into the pros, if 2 guys seem equal and one is a coaches son, I am inclined to favor the other guy because I figure in the pros all coaching advantage will be equaled out and so the guy who made it more on attributes other than coaching will end up ahead. So, unless Van shows something special physically (which I don't think he has as yet), I'm not investing.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

You left out Bryan Edwards. Just curious where you would have him 

I might be in the minority  (and I am according to consensus dynasty rankings), but I have him pretty close to the top.  Probably have to give the nod to Ruggs as someone more likely to stick but I think you can make an argument that the WR1 td monster upside belongs to Edwards, even though he's a longer shot to come in.   It seemed like an awful lot of smoke throughout training camp, exceeding the usual rookie praise and encouragement.   I'm open to the narrative that he got banged up in week 3 and never got healthy the rest of the season.   If he doesn't show up in the preseason, generate more training camp buzz and shine in game situations fairly early on, then I will probably pull the plug pretty quick.

I will put it this way, the Raiders added bars to their WR core for Ruggs and Edwards to jump over to claim a WR1/2 role.   The Jets added significant barriers for Mims to claim such a role.   

 

[robb]

DJ Moore and a 2022 1st and a 2022 2nd good dynasty value to get for Joe Mixon?

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

DJ Moore and a 2022 1st and a 2022 2nd good dynasty value to get for Joe Mixon?

If the team getting Mixon isn't the league juggernaut, I would say excellent value, and I'm not even a giant DJ Moore fan.   If the team getting Mixon is one of the best, it's still pretty good, but one thing to keep in mind is that the bottom of round 1 might not have much in the way of RB next season.  So you might have a hard time replacing Mixon if you're not deep at RB, but that's still a big haul for Mixon.

 

[Blick]

DJ Moore and a 2022 1st and a 2022 2nd good dynasty value to get for Joe Mixon?

Smash accept.  That seems at least a 2022 1st too much.

 

[robb]

If the team getting Mixon isn't the league juggernaut, I would say excellent value, and I'm not even a giant DJ Moore fan.   If the team getting Mixon is one of the best, it's still pretty good, but one thing to keep in mind is that the bottom of round 1 might not have much in the way of RB next season.  So you might have a hard time replacing Mixon if you're not deep at RB, but that's still a big haul for Mixon.

I would still have CEH, Edmonds and Ekeler as RBs.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

I would still have CEH, Edmonds and Ekeler as RBs.

It's a smash accept then.   Mixon and Moore are pretty close in their own right, even though I prefer Mixon.   That's significant sweetener they're piling on top of Moore.

 

[JoeJoe88]

DJ Moore and a 2022 1st and a 2022 2nd good dynasty value to get for Joe Mixon?

That’s way too much for Mixon. I’m not sure I even value him more than Moore straight up, personally. 

 

[tangfoot]

I don't understand why people are writing off Ruggs so quickly. Give him a chance to develop. 

The laziest analysis in fantasy football is “you can’t teach speed”. 

But the real truth is that you can’t teach subtlety and nuance to a guy who just wants to run at 100 mph. Blazing fast guys will never* get drafted by me ahead of the tacticians who have learned how to create separation due to footwork and moves. 

 

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four]

I feel like it's tough to value James Robinson. I would like to acquire if the price is right, but don't even know where to begin with an offer.

 

[battlestar]

I feel like it's tough to value James Robinson. I would like to acquire if the price is right, but don't even know where to begin with an offer.

I hear you loud and unclear here.

He was my clear and unexpected RB2 last year in my 12 team PPR SF TE Premium league. 
 

So what? Well as much as he was my RB2 last year I cannot be so naive as to expect anywhere near those numbers so see him more as RB3/Flex now.  I’m hoping to be fine as I have him behind Cook and Swift who I am hoping can be closer to RB2 so see them sort of swapping roles from the end of last season on my team.   
 

Our rookie draft is done but I guess I’d consider an early 2nd depending on who was on the clock and league format.  I’d want a first but can’t imagine anyone paying that.

Not sure that helps at all as honestly I don’t know what I’d take for him and I’m tempted to just see where it goes in Jax.

 

[JohnnyU]

I hear you loud and unclear here.

He was my clear and unexpected RB2 last year in my 12 team PPR SF TE Premium league. 
 

So what? Well as much as he was my RB2 last year I cannot be so naive as to expect anywhere near those numbers so see him more as RB3/Flex now.  I’m hoping to be fine as I have him behind Cook and Swift who I am hoping can be closer to RB2 so see them sort of swapping roles from the end of last season on my team.   
 

Our rookie draft is done but I guess I’d consider an early 2nd depending on who was on the clock and league format.  I’d want a first but can’t imagine anyone paying that.

Not sure that helps at all as honestly I don’t know what I’d take for him and I’m tempted to just see where it goes in Jax.

Early 2nd is too much.  Hell, a late 2nd is too much if it isn’t the ETN owner.

 

[battlestar]

I’ll keep him and see what he can do over a late 2nd or 3rd.

No way would I deal him for that so I guess we both just helped the poster.

 

[BespokeJort]

Buying Robinson for a 3, selling for a 2

 

[dipandglide]

You left out Bryan Edwards. Just curious where you would have him 

Oops. I'd slot him in around Reagor and 3.01. That said, LV WR depth chart is wide open. Edwards is worth the gamble if you can get him on the cheap.

 

[dipandglide]

DJ Moore and a 2022 1st and a 2022 2nd good dynasty value to get for Joe Mixon?

Yes. I'd cash out on Mixon for that. You get a proven player in Moore, and you get a couple swings in the draft. SIgn me up!

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Our rookie draft is done but I guess I’d consider an early 2nd depending on who was on the clock and league format.  I’d want a first but can’t imagine anyone paying that.

I think you have this pegged correctly in my 1QB dynasty.   It probably ends with you keeping Robinson for Year 2, but he's found money.  I'm at 2.4 and it seems unlikely a Sermon or Carter gets to me.   If I needed a RB, reaching for Gainwell or swapping for Robinson is a reasonable debate  (though I would lean neither).   However, someone who needs 2021 RB production that felt obligated to take Chase / Pitts as BPA in round 1 might cave in to your price. 

Better to go down with the ship with someone who was a godsend for you, rather than swap for a late 2nd / early 3rd, eat up a roster spot with some WR that doesn't play before ultimately falling out of favor.  It's not like we don't know what James Robinson is capable of if Etienne gets injured and Hyde doesn't reemerge.   

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

I have a championship contender in 1QB Empire Dynasty.   I received a trade from a top contender.  They wanted:

Ju Jones, Hurts, Singletary 

-for-

Reagor, Gus Bus, 2022 (late projected) 1st, 2023 (late projected) 1st

**I have no shortage of promising young WRs, so I wanted to get something more useful for 2021/2022.   Also, the likelihood in an Empire League is that the league ends after 4 or 5 more seasons, so those future 1sts aren't guaranteed, hence nowhere near as valuable as they are in a pure dynasty with no defined end point.   I made the following counter-offer that was accepted:

trading:   Ju Jones, Hurts, Singletary, 3.12, 2022 (late) 2nd, 2023 (late) 2nd

-for-

K. Hunt, 2022 (late) 1st, 2023 (late) 1st

Essentially, I have traded Gus Bus, Reagor, 2022 late 2nd, 2023 late 2nd, 3.12 -for- Hunt.    Is that okay value for Hunt in an Empire?   The two additional roster spots allows me to keep Bryan Edwards and Mims.

 

[DropKick]

I have a championship contender in 1QB Empire Dynasty.   I received a trade from a top contender.  They wanted:

Ju Jones, Hurts, Singletary 

-for-

Reagor, Gus Bus, 2022 (late projected) 1st, 2023 (late projected) 1st

**I have no shortage of promising young WRs, so I wanted to get something more useful for 2021/2022.   Also, the likelihood in an Empire League is that the league ends after 4 or 5 more seasons, so those future 1sts aren't guaranteed, hence nowhere near as valuable as they are in a pure dynasty with no defined end point.   I made the following counter-offer that was accepted:

trading:   Ju Jones, Hurts, Singletary, 3.12, 2022 (late) 2nd, 2023 (late) 2nd

-for-

K. Hunt, 2022 (late) 1st, 2023 (late) 1st

Essentially, I have traded Gus Bus, Reagor, 2022 late 2nd, 2023 late 2nd, 3.12 -for- Hunt.    Is that okay value for Hunt in an Empire?   The two additional roster spots allows me to keep Bryan Edwards and Mims.

With a limited league life, I really don't see anything in that offer to consider moving Julio, Hurts or Singletary,

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZmIyCkoaPo   3 undervalued players I'm looking to pick up.

Sorry about the camera work. I broke my leg and tore a couple ligaments so still working it all out.

Wish I played in a 2QB so that I could get more excited about targeting Fitzmagic.   Even in my 1QB re-draft I like him enough that I would give some thought to carrying him as a backup, depending on how I feel about my starter.   At worst, he seems like a top streamer available this season, but have a feeling he will be permanently rostered by someone.

Definitely like the price of Gus Bus unless Gurley or someone comparable lands there for a full blown RBBC.   Good stop gap for byes / injury, with good upside if something happens to Dobbins.

Arnold is a good one for deeper leagues.    Do you like him more than Trautman, Kmet, or Jarwin? 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Value check on Uzomah? 

Bengals talking about wanting to get him 50+ receptions.

he looked good before the Achilles, and reports are that he’s back to 100%. Sample’s meh & IMO not a threat to take away work from him.

Curious what the sharks think of C.J.

 

[BespokeJort]

Value check on Uzomah? 

Bengals talking about wanting to get him 50+ receptions.

he looked good before the Achilles, and reports are that he’s back to 100%. Sample’s meh & IMO not a threat to take away work from him.

Curious what the sharks think of C.J.

Maybe different in TE premium but he doesn’t really move the needle for me with all of chase/Boyd/Higgins/prob the backs ahead of him in the pecking order, coming off an Achilles and having been ok but nothing special before. Def possible he wins the job and is a reasonable TE2 but I have a hard time envisioning a future where I’m excited to put him in a lineup.