What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (10 Viewers)

Guy is offering me London for Jameson if I give him a bump in the second round.

But it's a contract league, and Jameson has 5 left while London has 3. That definitely matters.

Am I crazy to not do it? I'm definitely looking to be competitive this year.
I'm in a couple contract leagues and 3 years is still a long time - I think this is a definite accept for you, especially if you are in position to be competitive this year, the 6+ games you get from London this year while Jameson is suspended are worth more than the pick bump and the potential cost of retaining him 3 years from now.
Would you do it if it cost me the 2.03 too?

@Hot Sauce Guy
Is that the 2.03 plus giving a bump in the 2nd round, is it a bump up to the 2.03, or is it in lieu of a bump - ie London for Williams and the 2.03?

Assuming a PPR 12-team league, I think I'd do Jameson and the 2.03 for London - if it's that plus a bump, I'd maybe try get something a little later added in, but I'm inclined to agree with @Hot Sauce Guy that I'd probably still make the deal for London, but now it gets very close. And this comes from a Jameson owner in a contract league (though he is still on my DTS).
It was Williams and the 2.03 for London. I ended up doing it.
I was just going to give an opinion on this then saw you accepted. I think you did very well there. I love both, but Jameson came into the league hurt, and now has already made one bad decision. Give me the more talented WR, albeit in a lesser offense who will likely play at least 6 more games than the other this year.
 
I’m still looking for ways to not have to take a QB this draft for my almost rebuilt 12 team SF PPR start 10 (no K, no D/ST)

Love shareholder very interested in 1.02, has a bunch of picks.

Considering offering 1.02+2025 1st + one of my back end WR (he likes a couple) for Love + 1.11 + 2024 1st (expected to be top 4)

That way if love busts I’ll have a chance at a QB in 2024. Or MH Jr if things break right.

Obviously some risk. But more or less than drafting a 2023 QB at 1.02?

Thoughts?
 
Last edited:
I’m still looking for ways to not have to take a QB this draft for my almost rebuilt 12 team PPR start 10 (no K, no D/ST)

Love shareholder very interested in 1.02, has a bunch of picks.

Considering offering 1.02+2025 1st + one of my back end WR (he likes a couple) for Love + 1.11 + 2024 1st (expected to be top 4)

That way if love busts I’ll have a chance at a QB in 2024. Or MH Jr if things break right.

Obviously some risk. But more or less than drafting a 2023 QB at 1.02?

Thoughts?

You didn’t say it, but this is SF, right?

Why wouldn’t you take a rookie QB and gain those extra years of youth? Feels like the unknowns are similar between Love and Young/Stroud.
2 cents.
 
I’m still looking for ways to not have to take a QB this draft for my almost rebuilt 12 team PPR start 10 (no K, no D/ST)

Love shareholder very interested in 1.02, has a bunch of picks.

Considering offering 1.02+2025 1st + one of my back end WR (he likes a couple) for Love + 1.11 + 2024 1st (expected to be top 4)

That way if love busts I’ll have a chance at a QB in 2024. Or MH Jr if things break right.

Obviously some risk. But more or less than drafting a 2023 QB at 1.02?

Thoughts?

You didn’t say it, but this is SF, right?

Why wouldn’t you take a rookie QB and gain those extra years of youth? Feels like the unknowns are similar between Love and Young/Stroud.
2 cents.
Yes, SF

And yes, that occurred to me. But the profit is getting a likely top 4 1st in 2024 (where there are assets I covet) and a 1.11, which in SF could be a very good receiver or RB.

With about the same risk at QB.
 
I think you love playing GM a little too much. Trading for future 1sts based on projected finishes that season feels like a fools errand.

If this is the 16 team league you have Fields & Lawrence AND your rebuild is almost complete, I would still take the QB.

In another thread I was suggesting you take Richardson for the upside, but in your situation I can see the argument for Young. QBs can have a ton of value in SF leagues, if Young, who is the day 1 starter in Carolina and as game ready as they come, can match Mac Jones production as a rookie you should be able to find a QB needy team next off-season and unload him for a premium.

Don't bank on him becoming the next Brees, it is so very unlikely, but sell him to an owner as if he were the next Brees.

You should be able to land whatever missing piece, or picks, you think your team needs.
 
I think you love playing GM a little too much. Trading for future 1sts based on projected finishes that season feels like a fools errand.

If this is the 16 team league you have Fields & Lawrence AND your rebuild is almost complete, I would still take the QB.

In another thread I was suggesting you take Richardson for the upside, but in your situation I can see the argument for Young. QBs can have a ton of value in SF leagues, if Young, who is the day 1 starter in Carolina and as game ready as they come, can match Mac Jones production as a rookie you should be able to find a QB needy team next off-season and unload him for a premium.

Don't bank on him becoming the next Brees, it is so very unlikely, but sell him to an owner as if he were the next Brees.

You should be able to land whatever missing piece, or picks, you think your team needs.
It’s a the 12-team SF rebuild. I have only Fields, and no QB2.

This would potentially net me Love + an early ‘24 1st, plus 1.11
 
Last edited:
I think you love playing GM a little too much. Trading for future 1sts based on projected finishes that season feels like a fools errand.

If this is the 16 team league you have Fields & Lawrence AND your rebuild is almost complete, I would still take the QB.

In another thread I was suggesting you take Richardson for the upside, but in your situation I can see the argument for Young. QBs can have a ton of value in SF leagues, if Young, who is the day 1 starter in Carolina and as game ready as they come, can match Mac Jones production as a rookie you should be able to find a QB needy team next off-season and unload him for a premium.

Don't bank on him becoming the next Brees, it is so very unlikely, but sell him to an owner as if he were the next Brees.

You should be able to land whatever missing piece, or picks, you think your team needs.
It’s a the 12-team SF rebuild. I have only Fields, and no QB2.

This would potentially net me Love + an early ‘24 1st, plus 1.11
You're too high on Love IMO
 
You're too high on Love IMO
I’m actually not high on him at all or I would have already offered it up.

lol

The big question is whether punting on drafting a QB and getting Love is worth getting 1.11 & an early ‘24 1st.

And I’m asking here because it’s vexing me. Value-wise it feels right - profitable even.

Whether Love can be a productive QB2 in SF is the big mystery. Dude has less snaps than Lance. 😬
 
I think you love playing GM a little too much. Trading for future 1sts based on projected finishes that season feels like a fools errand.

If this is the 16 team league you have Fields & Lawrence AND your rebuild is almost complete, I would still take the QB.

In another thread I was suggesting you take Richardson for the upside, but in your situation I can see the argument for Young. QBs can have a ton of value in SF leagues, if Young, who is the day 1 starter in Carolina and as game ready as they come, can match Mac Jones production as a rookie you should be able to find a QB needy team next off-season and unload him for a premium.

Don't bank on him becoming the next Brees, it is so very unlikely, but sell him to an owner as if he were the next Brees.

You should be able to land whatever missing piece, or picks, you think your team needs.
It’s a the 12-team SF rebuild. I have only Fields, and no QB2.

This would potentially net me Love + an early ‘24 1st, plus 1.11
Take Richardson and stop it. 😂
 
So where does Gibbs and Njigbas landing spots out them in startup drafts now (1qb)? They had both been going somewhere near early 3rd round.
Did this help or hurt their value?
I am thinking it hurt their value a little, even for Gibbs despite pick 12
 
So where does Gibbs and Njigbas landing spots out them in startup drafts now (1qb)? They had both been going somewhere near early 3rd round.
Did this help or hurt their value?
I am thinking it hurt their value a little, even for Gibbs despite pick 12
I don’t think it hurts their FF draft value so much as their perceived first year value. Clearly, Tyler Lockett is on the downside of his career, and having the Y receiver across from DK Metcalf is going to be profitable for those who invest in JSN.

I expect Gibbs value to take a big jump the second that D’Andre Swift is traded.

Paired up with Montgomery, I still believe Gibbs is worth the 1.02 in standard, and the 1.04 or 1.05 in super flex. I would probably lean Gibbs over JSN now, where before I had those flip-flopped.

But with running backs, it’s all about the draft capital. That he was taken 12th overall bodes extremely well for his outlook.
 
Last edited:
Is 1.10 an overpay for David Montgomery?
Not based on startups where he goes before the 8th rookie off the board, but nobody cares about startups. Ya know, those things where people actually put their money where their mouth it.
But he should fall now in startups?
Seems like there should be a slight dip.

I don’t see it as a massive overpay - 1.12 to 2.02 range feels more comfortable to me.

if offering the 1.10, see if you can get back a 3rd?
 
Is 1.10 an overpay for David Montgomery?
Not based on startups where he goes before the 8th rookie off the board, but nobody cares about startups. Ya know, those things where people actually put their money where their mouth it.
But he should fall now in startups?
Just saying, it's not an overlay, and if it is, not by much.
Not like there is 10 glaring studs here.
Month will get a lot of work still
 

Paired up with Montgomery, I still believe Gibbs is worth the 1.04 or 1.05 in super flex. I would probably lean Gibbs over JSN now, where before I had those flip-flopped.

But with running backs, it’s all about the draft capital. That he was taken 12th overall boats extremely well for his outlook.
I was leaning JSN over Gibbs pre-draft too, in a 14 team SF where I have 1.05, and think the board will fall Bijan and the 3 QBs. Now I am leaning Gibbs. Lions drafting him at 12 means they have plans for him as they didn't want to risk not getting him at 18.
In that same league, I have Geno, Herbert and Lamar at QB so I could also have my pick of a rookie WR stack but RB is a more coveted asset in that league, and would also fill a roster need.
 
I was leaning JSN over Gibbs pre-draft too, in a 14 team SF where I have 1.05, and think the board will fall Bijan and the 3 QBs. Now I am leaning Gibbs. Lions drafting him at 12 means they have plans for him as they didn't want to risk not getting him at 18.
In that same league, I have Geno, Herbert and Lamar at QB so I could also have my pick of a rookie WR stack but RB is a more coveted asset in that league, and would also fill a roster need.
If I hadn’t dealt for Fields & AJB I would be taking Gibbs at 3-4 over JSN for sure, even in SF.

Also *bodes

Stupid autocorrect
 
I was leaning JSN over Gibbs pre-draft too, in a 14 team SF where I have 1.05, and think the board will fall Bijan and the 3 QBs. Now I am leaning Gibbs. Lions drafting him at 12 means they have plans for him as they didn't want to risk not getting him at 18.
In that same league, I have Geno, Herbert and Lamar at QB so I could also have my pick of a rookie WR stack but RB is a more coveted asset in that league, and would also fill a roster need.
If I hadn’t dealt for Fields & AJB I would be taking Gibbs at 3-4 over JSN for sure, even in SF.

Also *bodes

Stupid autocorrect
I’m still leaning JSN over Gibbs
 
I was leaning JSN over Gibbs pre-draft too, in a 14 team SF where I have 1.05, and think the board will fall Bijan and the 3 QBs. Now I am leaning Gibbs. Lions drafting him at 12 means they have plans for him as they didn't want to risk not getting him at 18.
In that same league, I have Geno, Herbert and Lamar at QB so I could also have my pick of a rookie WR stack but RB is a more coveted asset in that league, and would also fill a roster need.
If I hadn’t dealt for Fields & AJB I would be taking Gibbs at 3-4 over JSN for sure, even in SF.

Also *bodes

Stupid autocorrect
I’m still leaning JSN over Gibbs
I don’t have an issue with that - definitely a coin flip.

Both take a little short-term hit, but they’re both excellent PPR picks.
 
Last edited:
What’s a fair offer for Swift? Late 2nd?

I just sent offers of 1.08 and 1.12 in two different leagues. Hoping they are accepted. Feel like when he does get traded it will be to a plum spot and want to try to buy this dip. Could blow up in my face though. I’d happily pay any 2nd round pick.
I don’t mind that attempt at all.

I feel strongly Swift will get dealt.

The valuation is subject to wild swings. If a team deals for him as a COP, it’s an overpay. If as part of a RBBC, it’s a solid value. If as a (gasp!) 3 down back, you got a bargain.
 
What’s a fair offer for Swift? Late 2nd?

I just sent offers of 1.08 and 1.12 in two different leagues. Hoping they are accepted. Feel like when he does get traded it will be to a plum spot and want to try to buy this dip. Could blow up in my face though. I’d happily pay any 2nd round pick.
I don’t mind that attempt at all.

I feel strongly Swift will get dealt.

The valuation is subject to wild swings. If a team deals for him as a COP, it’s an overpay. If as part of a RBBC, it’s a solid value. If as a (gasp!) 3 down back, you got a bargain.

My thought is any team that trades for him is going to want to use him and I’ve always liked his skill set. And the type of team that would go for him seems to be a Miami, Cincy, Philly, etc where they are a contender with a strong offense. Personally I don’t care if he gets used the way he was in Detroit and figure that’s the worst case for any team that wants him. And yeah, there is a chance at a semi jackpot jump in value.
 
I dumped Swift late last year plus a late 1st (ended up the 1.09) for Dalvin & DJ Moore. Pretty happy with that return now.

Aweek or two later I ended up including Dalvin as a piece with Lamar to get Mahomes and was pretty happy about that too.
 
What’s a fair offer for Swift? Late 2nd?
I just sent an offer of 2.05/Metchie. Its just sitting in his inbox right now.
The challenge is that a lot of Swift owners have a massive sunk cost fallacy. No one wants to sell low on an asset they bought that high or drafted that high.

But best of luck to anyone trying to buy on the dip. I do think it’s a good idea.
Given the offers on this page (1.08, 1.12, 2.05/Metchie), it seems the "by the dip" folks are somewhat on the same page. I don't own Swift anywhere. If I did, it would depend on team build if I would be looking to sell. On a contender, I'd let him rot on my bench. A rebuild, he'd be gone.
 
What’s a fair offer for Swift? Late 2nd?

I just sent offers of 1.08 and 1.12 in two different leagues. Hoping they are accepted. Feel like when he does get traded it will be to a plum spot and want to try to buy this dip. Could blow up in my face though. I’d happily pay any 2nd round pick.
I don’t mind that attempt at all.

I feel strongly Swift will get dealt.

The valuation is subject to wild swings. If a team deals for him as a COP, it’s an overpay. If as part of a RBBC, it’s a solid value. If as a (gasp!) 3 down back, you got a bargain.

My thought is any team that trades for him is going to want to use him and I’ve always liked his skill set. And the type of team that would go for him seems to be a Miami, Cincy, Philly, etc where they are a contender with a strong offense. Personally I don’t care if he gets used the way he was in Detroit and figure that’s the worst case for any team that wants him. And yeah, there is a chance at a semi jackpot jump in value.
I think we'd have to see the compensation before really saying this. If it's for like a 5th/6th round pick I don't think that tells us much about their intentions, could just be depth or taking a cheap flyer.
 
What’s a fair offer for Swift? Late 2nd?

I just sent offers of 1.08 and 1.12 in two different leagues. Hoping they are accepted. Feel like when he does get traded it will be to a plum spot and want to try to buy this dip. Could blow up in my face though. I’d happily pay any 2nd round pick.
I don’t mind that attempt at all.

I feel strongly Swift will get dealt.

The valuation is subject to wild swings. If a team deals for him as a COP, it’s an overpay. If as part of a RBBC, it’s a solid value. If as a (gasp!) 3 down back, you got a bargain.

My thought is any team that trades for him is going to want to use him and I’ve always liked his skill set. And the type of team that would go for him seems to be a Miami, Cincy, Philly, etc where they are a contender with a strong offense. Personally I don’t care if he gets used the way he was in Detroit and figure that’s the worst case for any team that wants him. And yeah, there is a chance at a semi jackpot jump in value.
I think we'd have to see the compensation before really saying this. If it's for like a 5th/6th round pick I don't think that tells us much about their intentions, could just be depth or taking a cheap flyer.
100% this
 
Where does CJ Stroud fall now to you non-Texans fans? I wasn't super high on him pre-draft but he's now the QB of my hometown team. For that same reason I drafted Watson a few years ago at league start up. CJ owner already pinged me today noting we could talk if I put Burrow (bahahahah) or Watson 🤔 into discussion. I still think Watson > CJ but am I wrong?
 
What’s a fair offer for Swift? Late 2nd?

I just sent offers of 1.08 and 1.12 in two different leagues. Hoping they are accepted. Feel like when he does get traded it will be to a plum spot and want to try to buy this dip. Could blow up in my face though. I’d happily pay any 2nd round pick.
I don’t mind that attempt at all.

I feel strongly Swift will get dealt.

The valuation is subject to wild swings. If a team deals for him as a COP, it’s an overpay. If as part of a RBBC, it’s a solid value. If as a (gasp!) 3 down back, you got a bargain.

My thought is any team that trades for him is going to want to use him and I’ve always liked his skill set. And the type of team that would go for him seems to be a Miami, Cincy, Philly, etc where they are a contender with a strong offense. Personally I don’t care if he gets used the way he was in Detroit and figure that’s the worst case for any team that wants him. And yeah, there is a chance at a semi jackpot jump in value.
I think we'd have to see the compensation before really saying this. If it's for like a 5th/6th round pick I don't think that tells us much about their intentions, could just be depth or taking a cheap flyer.

I get what you’re saying but I disagree. In fact I expect the compensation to be about that because you’re trading for a guy with only 1 year on his deal. There’s a ton of good backs available in rounds 2,3,4 that will come with cheap 4 year deals so I fully expect if he’s dealt it will be some kind of late pick concoction.

These are also the same reasons I don’t think the compensation speaks to level of interest by the acquiring team. Detroit has no leverage, plus his expiring contract and availability of rookies depresses his compensation quite a bit. Any team that is willing to go get him indicates plenty of interest IMO. Just don’t see a situation where anyone gives much more than that.
 
What’s a fair offer for Swift? Late 2nd?

I just sent offers of 1.08 and 1.12 in two different leagues. Hoping they are accepted. Feel like when he does get traded it will be to a plum spot and want to try to buy this dip. Could blow up in my face though. I’d happily pay any 2nd round pick.
I don’t mind that attempt at all.

I feel strongly Swift will get dealt.

The valuation is subject to wild swings. If a team deals for him as a COP, it’s an overpay. If as part of a RBBC, it’s a solid value. If as a (gasp!) 3 down back, you got a bargain.

My thought is any team that trades for him is going to want to use him and I’ve always liked his skill set. And the type of team that would go for him seems to be a Miami, Cincy, Philly, etc where they are a contender with a strong offense. Personally I don’t care if he gets used the way he was in Detroit and figure that’s the worst case for any team that wants him. And yeah, there is a chance at a semi jackpot jump in value.
I think we'd have to see the compensation before really saying this. If it's for like a 5th/6th round pick I don't think that tells us much about their intentions, could just be depth or taking a cheap flyer.

I get what you’re saying but I disagree. In fact I expect the compensation to be about that because you’re trading for a guy with only 1 year on his deal. There’s a ton of good backs available in rounds 2,3,4 that will come with cheap 4 year deals so I fully expect if he’s dealt it will be some kind of late pick concoction.

These are also the same reasons I don’t think the compensation speaks to level of interest by the acquiring team. Detroit has no leverage, plus his expiring contract and availability of rookies depresses his compensation quite a bit. Any team that is willing to go get him indicates plenty of interest IMO. Just don’t see a situation where anyone gives much more than that.
I said that it wouldn't tell us much and it "could be" just depth or taking a cheap flyer. IMO the only way it signals a strong interest and thus a strong likelihood of high usage would be if they give up a higher pick. Anything lower and we really have no idea.
 
What’s a fair offer for Swift? Late 2nd?
Not sure if it’s fair but I know I wouldn’t trade Swift for that. I expect him to get traded. Right now while he could still land somewhere that has a RB but most places seem better than his current situation. Dream spots would be Cincinnati or KC, but there’s quite a few very good landing spots for him.
 
What’s a fair offer for Swift? Late 2nd?
Not sure if it’s fair but I know I wouldn’t trade Swift for that. I expect him to get traded. Right now while he could still land somewhere that has a RB but most places seem better than his current situation. Dream spots would be Cincinnati or KC, but there’s quite a few very good landing spots for him.
I would sell Swift for an early 2023 2nd.
I would buy Swift for a random 2024 2nd.
 
What’s a fair offer for Swift? Late 2nd?
Not sure if it’s fair but I know I wouldn’t trade Swift for that. I expect him to get traded. Right now while he could still land somewhere that has a RB but most places seem better than his current situation. Dream spots would be Cincinnati or KC, but there’s quite a few very good landing spots for him.
I would sell Swift for an early 2023 2nd.
I would buy Swift for a random 2024 2nd.
I agree with the second sentence.
 
What’s a fair offer for Swift? Late 2nd?
As a Swift owner I was on the ledge after the Gibbs pick, but the guys here talked me off with the "likely Swift trade" insight. I still probably wouldn't sell him for less than the #3 pick (maybe #4 or #5), BUT, it's a RB crazy league, and I'm a perennial stubborn Swift truther. So bear that in mind.
Yeah, see - no one’s paying a top 3 pick for him, but I don’t expect swift shareholders to want to sell at rock bottom pricing.

If I had him I’d hold and wait for the trade.
 
What’s a fair offer for Swift? Late 2nd?
As a Swift owner I was on the ledge after the Gibbs pick, but the guys here talked me off with the "likely Swift trade" insight. I still probably wouldn't sell him for less than the #3 pick (maybe #4 or #5), BUT, it's a RB crazy league, and I'm a perennial stubborn Swift truther. So bear that in mind.
Yeah, see - no one’s paying a top 3 pick for him, but I don’t expect swift shareholders to want to sell at rock bottom pricing.

If I had him I’d hold and wait for the trade.
Yeah, I'm definitely not shopping him because I know even in this league they wouldn't go for it. But I would bet there are teams in my league who would want Swift over any WR in the draft. But the first receiver will probably be like 1.10 😄
 
What’s a fair offer for Swift? Late 2nd?
As a Swift owner I was on the ledge after the Gibbs pick, but the guys here talked me off with the "likely Swift trade" insight. I still probably wouldn't sell him for less than the #3 pick (maybe #4 or #5), BUT, it's a RB crazy league, and I'm a perennial stubborn Swift truther. So bear that in mind.
Yeah, see - no one’s paying a top 3 pick for him, but I don’t expect swift shareholders to want to sell at rock bottom pricing.

If I had him I’d hold and wait for the trade.
Yeah, I'm definitely not shopping him because I know even in this league they wouldn't go for it. But I would bet there are teams in my league who would want Swift over any WR in the draft. But the first receiver will probably be like 1.10 😄
You mean any receiver not named JSN. Hell, or even Addison.
 
What’s a fair offer for Swift? Late 2nd?
As a Swift owner I was on the ledge after the Gibbs pick, but the guys here talked me off with the "likely Swift trade" insight. I still probably wouldn't sell him for less than the #3 pick (maybe #4 or #5), BUT, it's a RB crazy league, and I'm a perennial stubborn Swift truther. So bear that in mind.
Yeah, see - no one’s paying a top 3 pick for him, but I don’t expect swift shareholders to want to sell at rock bottom pricing.

If I had him I’d hold and wait for the trade.
Yeah, I'm definitely not shopping him because I know even in this league they wouldn't go for it. But I would bet there are teams in my league who would want Swift over any WR in the draft. But the first receiver will probably be like 1.10 😄
You mean any receiver not named JSN. Hell, or even Addison.
10 of the first 11 picks last year were RB's. That was LAST year's class. Compare that to this years RB's and WR's. I can't explain it, but that's how these guys draft.

ETA: I guess that doesn't specifically back up my belief that someone in my league would want Swift over JSN, but it shows that some would probably want the ~8th RB this year over JSN.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top