Ended up going Bowers. Took a lot of self control to not add another WR but Bowers is kind of 1/2 WR, so that made it a bit easier
Appreciate your and ffmail4me's input
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Appreciate your and ffmail4me's input
Tau837
Footballguy
Saw this in the dynasty trades thread and thought I would ask for approaches to situations like this.
I'm in a league with unusual format... Gold Dynasty League: 12 team Superflex; variable PPR (0.75 RB, 1 WR, 1.25 TE); depressed QB scoring; start 1Q 1R 2W 1T 1K 1D 1SF (QRWT) 4F (RWT); double elimination playoffs that run from weeks 12-18. I drafted an older than average team in 2021 that I viewed as a "win now" team. I finished 2nd, 3rd, and 1st, respectively in the first 3 seasons. So I am coming off a championship and a strong 3 year run overall.
On my roster:
- QB - Purdy, Cousins, Wilson, Howell
- RB - Taylor, Henry, Mitchell, Mixon, Mostert, Mattison, Hull
- WR - Adams, Aiyuk, Samuel, Evans, Doubs, Perry, Gallup
- TE - Waller, Dissly, Knox
- PK - Tucker
- DST - 49ers, Browns
- 2024 - 3.5, 3.12
- 2025 - my 1st, 3rd from team in 5th draft position this year, my 4th
- 2026 and beyond - all of my own picks, none of any other team's picks
I realize this may be viewed as more of an ACF post, so understand if you guys don't want to weigh in on how you would handle this situation, but interested in any comments.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Bowers and IMO it’s not close. You lucked out that he fell. Even if it’s not TE-P, it’s still hard to get production out of the position.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Run it back this season and if things don't fall your way, blow it up at the trade deadline. I think those guys have another season (maybe 2) left in them.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I second this.
Big Nate
Footballguy
As much as I like Worth and Thomas, Bowers is falling too far. I'm 100% taking teh shot on the talent that is Bowers. For long term I feel he's too good to pass up. Then Worth and then Thomas.
Big Nate
Footballguy
I agree but the toughest thing with be finding a TE and maybe a 2nd QB if Cousins can't go to start the season. If Waller retires and he might it could be tough finding a TE without investing to much. Might have to get creative without spending too much future capital. RB and WR are looking good just need to find that elusive TE.
If it isn't going well mid-season the vets will bring you the most value in draft picks. Right now no one wants vets anyways - everyone is hyped for the rookies.
Big Nate
Footballguy
Are DSTs worth anything in you league? Could you trade one and say 3.12 for a TE?
Tau837
Footballguy
Thanks to all for the responses on this.
With regard to TE, I originally drafted Gronk, and he helped until he retired. Since then, it has been a revolving door. I have made quite a few "win now" trades over the first 3 years, and those trades cost me draft picks that kept me from taking shots on rookie TEs, since the best of them were typically gone before I was able to pick. Agree this is a challenge for me going forward.
Doubtful, but I'll explore it, thanks for the thought on that.
joey
Footballguy
@barackdhouse posted the beginning of our SharkPool FFPC draft (1QB, TE-P) in the “FFPC dyansty” thread, but thought I’d put my reply here for general discussion about the large “10 thru 20 tier” to get opinions on which ones stand above the rest in other’s minds…
Top 4 tier is: MHJr, Nabers, Odunze, Bowers in whatever order you please
5 thru 9 tier is: Thomas, Brooks, Worthy, Benson, McConkey in whatever order you please
To me, the above is as chalky a top 9 as you’ll find in a 1 QB/TE-P league.
From there, I think there’s a wide open 10 thru…sheesh…20-ish tier that’s all interchangeable from this group:
QBs: Williams, Daniels
RBs: Corum, Wright, Lloyd
WRs: Coleman, Pearson, Legette, Mitchell, Franklin
Out of that group, I personally like Coleman, Pearson, Corum and Legette in that order for my own “mini tier” within this group of 10.
Thoughts from others? Players were sleeping on that you think stand out?
Top 4 tier is: MHJr, Nabers, Odunze, Bowers in whatever order you please
5 thru 9 tier is: Thomas, Brooks, Worthy, Benson, McConkey in whatever order you please
To me, the above is as chalky a top 9 as you’ll find in a 1 QB/TE-P league.
From there, I think there’s a wide open 10 thru…sheesh…20-ish tier that’s all interchangeable from this group:
QBs: Williams, Daniels
RBs: Corum, Wright, Lloyd
WRs: Coleman, Pearson, Legette, Mitchell, Franklin
Out of that group, I personally like Coleman, Pearson, Corum and Legette in that order for my own “mini tier” within this group of 10.
Thoughts from others? Players were sleeping on that you think stand out?
steelcityman
Footballguy
Out of all the potential RB2s in this rookie class, who has the best shot to become something similar to a RB1? Irving, Davis, Estime, Vidal, Shipley or Milton. Allen?
Or is it pretty much pick a name out of hat with all those guys?
Or is it pretty much pick a name out of hat with all those guys?
Just draft them all.....then you will be sure to have THE ONE
steelcityman
Footballguy
Hard to do with 2 picks.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
I like two. Etime and Irving.
Estime is a good back who will absolutely take over the lead roll if Javonte faulters. Dude is a 5'11", 227lb wrecking ball. His slow-ish 40 at the combine is in contrast to his burst and speed on the field. He won't ever be a track star, but he's fast enough to get into the 2nd level and bowl over any DB trying to get in his way.
Irving was super productive last year at Oregon in both the run and pass game. I think he'll take over for Rachaad White at some point (assuming he can step in and handle pass protection) before the end of the season. White, TO ME, has been super inefficient in rushing and catching turning 272 rushes into 990 yards (~3.6YPC) and to a lesser extent, 64 catches into 549 yards (8.6 ypc average). The Bucs committed to upgrading the IOL and that can do nothing but help whichever RB holds down the lead back role.
Both of these situations depend more on PRODUCTION of the heir apparent than injury and that's what I look for in a rookie who's slotted as the RB2.
kutta
Footballguy
A couple of rejected trades by the worst team in the league (Team A). He earned the 1.01, and also holds 1.03, 1.08, 1.11, 2.01.
Team A gives 1.01 and 2.01
Team B gives Chase
Team A gives Mike Evans and Isiah Likely
Team B (me gives) 2.05 and 2025 2nd
I have a really good, older team and thought I’d take a swing on Evans for the next year or two and try to win it.
Team A gives 1.01 and 2.01
Team B gives Chase
Team A gives Mike Evans and Isiah Likely
Team B (me gives) 2.05 and 2025 2nd
I have a really good, older team and thought I’d take a swing on Evans for the next year or two and try to win it.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, I wouldn’t accept those either. Evans showing no sign of slowing down, and Likely the heir apparent to Andrews.
And going from Chase to MH2 for a 2nd doesn’t seem worth it.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Kelce is 100. It wouldn't shock me if they scored close in points THIS year.
Not likely, but I sure wouldn't be amazed
kutta
Footballguy
Interesting. I sort of get turning down my offer, but if I had the 1.01 I’d jump at the chance to get Chase. Heck, he just turned 24. What the heck are you expecting from MH2?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Sorry, i was saying that if I had Chase I wouldn’t make that deal.
Blick
Footballguy
I would guess not many others would either.
Big Nate
Footballguy
If I'm the worst team in the league and I have Evans I'm unloading him. I have a soft spot for Likely so he's a bit of a hold for me but if I was that team I would likely do the trade but try to squeeze out maybe a 3rd out of you or a low hanging RB. Maybe see if I can get 1 more small piece but I'm 100% trying to unload Evans for younger players/picks.
As for the 1.01 deal - if this is SF I'm drafting Caleb. If not it is a tough one for me. With me being the worst team I might just roll with MHJ who is 2.5 years younger than Chase. I assume these are 2024 picks? There are some very nice pieces available at 2.01 (in SuperFlex) where it does make it close.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Most calcs / charts, while not the end-all/be-all, have Evans worth a random 2025 1st.
Were I the Evans owner I would be unlikely to accept a 2.05 for him. He’s the kinda dude who easily nets you a future 1st at the deadline to a contenting team.
I do roster Likely, and if I had depth at TE I would do a 2.05 for Likely, but in this case it’s a 2025 2nd for Likely. I’d probably still that though, sure. No issue there.
But the Evans part would be a smash reject, then counter for a 2025 1st + 2nd for Evans + Likely.
Big Nate
Footballguy
That is a fair point, if you hold you can likely get more during the season. Right now though it is tough to sell a vet like Evans for top value. No one needs to start any players right now (season is a long ways away) but if you had to sell Evans an early second might be the best you can get. No one is paying a first right now for Evans - I guess taht is what I'm getting at.
If this guy was the worst team in the league he should have sold Evans last year before the playoffs - that is a massive fail and a miss. He could have maybe got a 2024 first!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I just paid a future 1st for Deebo - I’m pretty sure an Evans shareholder who isn’t a contending team would smash accept for a 1st.
Big Nate
Footballguy
I love Evans (he helped me win a chip a couple years ago) but I do view Deebo as worth more than Evans. Deebo is 2 years younger and likely will have a sell window again. Evans "should" but you never know. I just see Evans as more risky acquisition right now. Deebo is a guy I would look to buy this year if I needed a WR.
Deebo > Evans mostly due to age for me.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
With Deebo’s propensity for injury and Evans relatively good track record, I think it’s a wash, but it’s not a hill I’d die on.
IMO, to a team looking to push all-in and win a ship this year, age is irrelevant, so Evans for a 1st is a fine get.
kutta
Footballguy
That was my thought process with the offer. I figured he’d want to dump Evans, and no way was I giving up a first (he suggested a 2025 first instead of second).
When I say his team is bad, I mean it’s horrible. He as 11 RBs and I would seriously only roster one or two of them. He needs a LOT of help.
It is not SF.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He might have a bad team, but he knows what Evans is worth.
He was traded straight up for Keon Coleman in a league of mine this weekend, and Coleman was taken with the 6th pick.
Big Nate
Footballguy
This makes for a good opportunity to say shoot your shot - never know what might happen. My main dynasty league people wouldn't give that up right now, picks are worth too much. During the season sure, everyone is wheeling and dealing but right now rookie picks are worth to much.
Never know unless you try! I should send a few more trade offers out here....
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, I have Evans as easily worth a 2025 1st. He’s Mr Consistent for production & he’s played through the soft tissue injuries that have plagued him at times. Set it and forget it 1000 yard season, and upside for TDs as a big, sure-handed RZ target.
What’s not to like?
Blick
Footballguy
I'd pay a late first in this draft for him easily. The 25 1st gets dicey if there's a chance it could be early.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
My teams tend to be WR heavy and I would not pay a 2025 first for Mike Evans. Looking just at my draft board I would have him at 1.12 for this year.
This is about where I'm at.
In a one start QB league there are 10 players I'm drafting over him, sometimes that 10th player makes it to 12 but he'd rank as my 11th player in this draft and I'm surprised to even say that since I'm old player averse, but just don't feel great about nailing a player in that range this year.
I would for sure not give up any 2025#1's, no matter how good my team looked, and frankly if my team was that good why would I need to pay a future first for an older WR?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think the better question is if you had Evans would you take less than a 2025 1st?
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Maybe that he'll be 31 before the season starts? Love Evans, but I'm not sure I'd give a mid or even a low 24 first for him. MAYBE a 2025 1st if I know it's going to be late.
Big Nate
Footballguy
In SF I would take 2.01 or 2.02 and a future 2nd if it looks like it might be early or another piece that has value. I see QBs like Nix and Penix availabe at 2.01-2 and that is worth it getting a QB in SF if my team is bad.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Figure adding a year is equal to ~10% value drop, so in theory to a good team dealing their 2025 1st, it’s equivalent to an early 2024 2nd.
In that light we’re pretty well aligned.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, I mean the operating theory I’m going with is “1 WR away from greatness” type team. So in that light it would likely be a 1.10-1.12 pick.
If you are that confident your team is so good the pick will be late in 2025 why would you need to give up a future asset to win now?
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
It depends. Could be a way to block another competitor from getting a solid 24 asset. Could be to add depth at the trade deadline to increase chances of winning the 'ship. There are all kinds of reason where it makes sense to trade for a 24/25 asset with a solid roster already in place.
To make the team even better? Injuries happen and just because you think your team is good enough to be playing for a title in May doesn't mean you shouldn't improve your team when you can.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Exactly. I’d always make a move for depth if I could buy reasonably on a still effective player like Evans.
Pencil him in for 80/1000/7 and anything else is gravy. At worst your team stays completely healthy - ok, you still have BYE week depth or a piece you can include in future deals while also helping your chances at a ‘ship.
And if he’s available, better to have him on your bench than in a contending opponent’s lineup.
Seems like a good use of a future 1st to me.
Thanks for answering but I would hate to ever take that strategy.
Nothing is more fluid then future draft capital. If your team needs help in-season, or your competitor needs help, it's pretty easy picking to buy an older asset waving your first round pick around to a team that is not hitting. The time to acquire an older player for future premium picks is when you need that player, not now, much better to hold that premium asset until you need it, only come off a fluid asset like future premium pick if it's just go good of a bargain.
That's not even getting into the situation were I've seen a number of teams, cocksure they'd be a contender, and valid reasons to feel this way, just crumble with a few injuries. This is especially a big deal in any of the leagues, like FFPC, where draft position for the non-playoff teams is determined by the lower playoffs. Very easy for a team to just slip out of the playoffs and end up with a high pick.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
Yes, if I am rebuilding.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’d hold until the trade deadline when people see the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow & you can extract more value, but that’s me.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Two of my leagues have relatively early trade deadlines. There's always a rush to vulture productive vets off the stragglers at the deadline to help stave off the injury bug. It tends to turn into an arms race. In normal leagues where there isn't a deadline, I somewhat agree. My perspective is that you should do everything in your power to put your team in contention for a title. If you're in a close race with a few other teams, a solid vet like Evans can make the difference in running to the 'ship or petering out in the semis.
