Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (7 Viewers)

[smbkrypt24]

What is Davante Adam's value in PPR leagues?

I gave up two 25’ 2nds for him a month ago.

That’s a steal for a competing team. If I am rebuilding I may sell for that though.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What is Davante Adam's value in PPR leagues?

I gave up two 25’ 2nds for him a month ago.

That’s a steal for a competing team. If I am rebuilding I may sell for that though.

Agreed. Despite being 31, the owner in one of my leagues is still demanding a 1st.

No one’s paid that, but a couple of 2nds seems fair both ways.

 

[titusbramble]

Davante seems like the archetypal "seller wants a first, buyer won't pay more than a second" player. Think if you want to max value you hold until late October and move him to the most WR needy contender for their first, chucking in a later pick if needed to get the deal over the line

 

[sheerterror]

What is Davante Adam's value in PPR leagues?

I gave up two 25’ 2nds for him a month ago.

That’s a steal for a competing team. If I am rebuilding I may sell for that though.

Agreed. Despite being 31, the owner in one of my leagues is still demanding a 1st.

No one’s paid that, but a couple of 2nds seems fair both ways.

2 2nd's is nothing to sneeze at on a depreciating asset. This past season I dumped Kittle for what ended up being 2.4 and 2.11, which subsequently landed me Daniels and Marshawn Lloyd.

I know every league is different, but I generally haven't had much luck selling guys as they get to this point in their careers - and as such, will be riding guys like Hopkins, and Keenan Allen into the ground. I got more preemptive over the years and that's also burned me a bit - selling way too low on Henry when I was sure his performance was going to dip a few seasons back.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What is Davante Adam's value in PPR leagues?

I gave up two 25’ 2nds for him a month ago.

That’s a steal for a competing team. If I am rebuilding I may sell for that though.

Agreed. Despite being 31, the owner in one of my leagues is still demanding a 1st.

No one’s paid that, but a couple of 2nds seems fair both ways.

2 2nd's is nothing to sneeze at on a depreciating asset. This past season I dumped Kittle for what ended up being 2.4 and 2.11, which subsequently landed me Daniels and Marshawn Lloyd.

I know every league is different, but I generally haven't had much luck selling guys as they get to this point in their careers - and as such, will be riding guys like Hopkins, and Keenan Allen into the ground. I got more preemptive over the years and that's also burned me a bit - selling way too low on Henry when I was sure his performance was going to dip a few seasons back.

sure, but the fact is that Adams, while a short-term rental, was still an elite asset.

Most of the time players like that are simply ride off into the sunset - but if a team with Adams isn't competing at the deadline, I could absolutely see a team that is being willing to sacrifice a 2nd for him. 2 does seem a bit steep.

It seems a bit riskier with Adams in particular because we don't yet know the QB situation, which could be in flux this year as well. Raiders might want to take another long look at AOC, assuming Minshew starts the season. I certainly wouldn't be a buyer at either price.

 

[osubuckeyeman]

On March 1st, I traded my 2025 first for Adams. I just wanted to see what the market was or what the perceived market was. The deal I made was before the draft and free agency. I won the league last year, and the team should be competing again this year, so the idea is it will be late first, but you never know how the season will go. At the time, I felt the worst I could expect was AOC being QB again, and I can live with those numbers, but it feels like the Raiders did little to help Adams in the offseason except add another weapon in Brock Bowers. Is Adams's price holding steady at this point, or do we feel his price is going down? It seems by the response here, he is pretty much holding or dropping by a small amount.

 

[Rockchild]

What is Davante Adam's value in PPR leagues?

I gave up two 25’ 2nds for him a month ago.

That’s a steal for a competing team. If I am rebuilding I may sell for that though.

Agreed. Despite being 31, the owner in one of my leagues is still demanding a 1st.

No one’s paid that, but a couple of 2nds seems fair both ways.

2 2nd's is nothing to sneeze at on a depreciating asset. This past season I dumped Kittle for what ended up being 2.4 and 2.11, which subsequently landed me Daniels and Marshawn Lloyd.

I know every league is different, but I generally haven't had much luck selling guys as they get to this point in their careers - and as such, will be riding guys like Hopkins, and Keenan Allen into the ground. I got more preemptive over the years and that's also burned me a bit - selling way too low on Henry when I was sure his performance was going to dip a few seasons back.

These are the kind of players I like to acquire as they are relatively inexpensive. 2nd round picks are nice and all but they're unknowns. Sometimes you get burnt on the acquired player but that's every trade.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

These are the kind of players I like to acquire as they are relatively inexpensive. 2nd round picks are nice and all but they're unknowns. Sometimes you get burnt on the acquired player but that's every trade.

I sent a pair of future 1sts for Deebo+McLaurin from a team that just won the ship.

I may regret it down the road, but I figured
1. They might help me go back to back
2. Barring injury (knock on wood) if things go south this year I can sell them for about what I paid for them at the deadline, or before next year’s draft. Maybe even at a profit if they play better than expected.

Those 2025 & 2026 picks won’t contribute to my lineup this year, that’s for sure.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

These are the kind of players I like to acquire as they are relatively inexpensive. 2nd round picks are nice and all but they're unknowns. Sometimes you get burnt on the acquired player but that's every trade.

I sent a pair of future 1sts for Deebo+McLaurin from a team that just won the ship.

I may regret it down the road, but I figured
1. They might help me go back to back
2. Barring injury (knock on wood) if things go south this year I can sell them for about what I paid for them at the deadline, or before next year’s draft. Maybe even at a profit if they play better than expected.

Those 2025 & 2026 picks won’t contribute to my lineup this year, that’s for sure.

In a bubble, I'm not sure I'd pay 2 1sts for Deebo and Scary Terry. That said, it sounds like you're going all in this season and my position has always been, "if you're competing, put your team in the best position to win the ship." Deebo surprised me last year when I anticipated some letdown (and got rid of him too soon). McLaurin shouldn't be "running a lot of cardio" like he was last year with Howell. (that quote from McLaurin always cracks me up!)

Terry McLaurin didn't have a single catch today vs. the Dolphins. He was asked about that after the game. Terry McLaurin after no catches – “I ran a lot of cardio today.”

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'm not sure I'd pay 2 1sts for Deebo and Scary Terry

When 1 is a year out and the other is 2 years out the value is more realistic than “paying 2 1sts”. These were not 2024 picks.

A 2026 1st in the trade equivalent of a 2024 2nd rounder.

I saw Deebo command 1.12+3.06 in another league, so I felt like a 2025 expected to be late 1st alone was good value.

But yes - my approach is that I’m playing to win, not to have the prettiest roster. And the plan in this particular league is to see where I am at the deadline and if not looking like I have a shot, sell the olds.

And if I’m good to go at the deadline, move the olds for picks before the 2025 draft (I have Amari Cooper & James Conner on this team as well)

 

[(HULK)]

IMO is a little overvalued, coming off a record setting season, with a perfect storm of Kupp’s injuries & Stafford resurgence. And the Rams don’t have a plan B at QB at the moment, which is a little troubling.

I have him more in the WR20 range, when most rank him top 10. I kinda want to capitalize on that value difference.

QB situations change for a lot of WR's and you got to figure McVay will figure out the QB situation.

But the Kupp injury performance is something I'd encourage people to look deeper inot. He had 13 full games with Kupp and in those 13 games he basically would have prorarated to all time historic season, top 4 all time, almost dead on identical to Justin Jeffersons.

JJ, 16g, 125 targets, 88/1,400/7
Puka, 13 games with Kupp which includes the playoff game, 111 targets, 71/1,125/5 and prorated over JJ's 16 games that's 136 targets for 87/1,385/6.

Which is again almost dead on equal to Jefferson but he'd have needed 11 more targets to be fair.

I'd also point out I think he was slowed by a knee injury for about a month.

So to people who act like his numbers are artificlaly inflated from the games Kupp missed it I'd tell you to look again.

Now for sure he was better in the 4 full games without Kupp. Had 52 targets for 39/501/1 TD. The TD's are low but that's a ridicilous 16 game proration pace of 208 targets/156/2,004. But then you step back and realize that the most ridicilous WR fantasy season we've seen in the last I don't know how long was Kupp's triple crown season when he went for 145/1,947/16 (but in 17 games).

They did not touch Kupp's contract this year when doing so would have created salary cap space. His current base is $15m, second highest on the team and about $9M mor then anyone else that was not signed this off-season. Teams typically start taking this approach, not adjusting base salaries to create cap space, for players they are planning a future without. The only bad news in this part of the analysis, is that they did the same thing with Stafford.

But to me, in summary, he was great with Kupp but instead of getting caught up in being down on the fact he was better without Kupp in the lineup I instead am looking at the possiblities of the extra level, the overall WR1 level, he can attain without him which my guess is coming soon.

Again the QB sitiuation is not known but how much has Justin Jefferson fallen with an unknown QB situation but Lamb's likely about to in the same boat, Justin Jefferson is in the same boat and for the record I'm mighty high on Mccarthy the QB but he may not a boon to JJ, remains to be seen. Tyreek went from Mahomes to Tua and improved. He'll have McVay and that's what matters the most to me.

Puka's health and injury history is my biggest concern with him, I got him right around WR 5-6. I'd caution about falling into a trap of not being properly high on him because he was cheap to acquire.

Again, I believe I was the very first person pumping up Puka on this site. So you are very much preaching to the choir here.

I am extremely high on him for fantasy. Not quite as high as you are, but definitely up there.

I am not quite as confident as you that the Rams will be able to easily replace Matt Stafford. My opinion, they absolutely should’ve drafted a quarterback this year. and with just one season under his belt, I have a difficult time saying with confidence the Nacua is quarterback-proof.

That said, regardless of whether he hits his peak or not, I find myself in a situation where I have to look at team build versus the pieces I have. Having 1 quarterback is not a winning strategy. My roster is otherwise built to win now.

I’m trying to exercise all options to obtain a quarterback… So far this remains my most promising. That said, I give it about a 15% chance the owner accepts it. maybe less.

I really hate sf when it comes to deals like this.

We live in a world where Bo Nix was selected as the number 12 pick. His upside is career back up. If literally everything goes right for him. We are about 23 months from a fired executive writing a 25 minute read on The Athletic about why drafting a back up QB in the top 15 is actually a smart move.

Fantasy cannot replicate real llfe. It shouldn't try. But SF gets QB value somewhere in the range of where it should be.

I'm far from a Nix truther, but you're wildly underestimating his upside. I think he's the most accurate college QB of all time. He's starting for a head coach that usually has fantasy relevant QBs. He could be the next Mac Jones, sure. But he also could be a Kirk Cousins.

 

[Jppaul]

IMO is a little overvalued, coming off a record setting season, with a perfect storm of Kupp’s injuries & Stafford resurgence. And the Rams don’t have a plan B at QB at the moment, which is a little troubling.

I have him more in the WR20 range, when most rank him top 10. I kinda want to capitalize on that value difference.

QB situations change for a lot of WR's and you got to figure McVay will figure out the QB situation.

But the Kupp injury performance is something I'd encourage people to look deeper inot. He had 13 full games with Kupp and in those 13 games he basically would have prorarated to all time historic season, top 4 all time, almost dead on identical to Justin Jeffersons.

JJ, 16g, 125 targets, 88/1,400/7
Puka, 13 games with Kupp which includes the playoff game, 111 targets, 71/1,125/5 and prorated over JJ's 16 games that's 136 targets for 87/1,385/6.

Which is again almost dead on equal to Jefferson but he'd have needed 11 more targets to be fair.

I'd also point out I think he was slowed by a knee injury for about a month.

So to people who act like his numbers are artificlaly inflated from the games Kupp missed it I'd tell you to look again.

Now for sure he was better in the 4 full games without Kupp. Had 52 targets for 39/501/1 TD. The TD's are low but that's a ridicilous 16 game proration pace of 208 targets/156/2,004. But then you step back and realize that the most ridicilous WR fantasy season we've seen in the last I don't know how long was Kupp's triple crown season when he went for 145/1,947/16 (but in 17 games).

They did not touch Kupp's contract this year when doing so would have created salary cap space. His current base is $15m, second highest on the team and about $9M mor then anyone else that was not signed this off-season. Teams typically start taking this approach, not adjusting base salaries to create cap space, for players they are planning a future without. The only bad news in this part of the analysis, is that they did the same thing with Stafford.

But to me, in summary, he was great with Kupp but instead of getting caught up in being down on the fact he was better without Kupp in the lineup I instead am looking at the possiblities of the extra level, the overall WR1 level, he can attain without him which my guess is coming soon.

Again the QB sitiuation is not known but how much has Justin Jefferson fallen with an unknown QB situation but Lamb's likely about to in the same boat, Justin Jefferson is in the same boat and for the record I'm mighty high on Mccarthy the QB but he may not a boon to JJ, remains to be seen. Tyreek went from Mahomes to Tua and improved. He'll have McVay and that's what matters the most to me.

Puka's health and injury history is my biggest concern with him, I got him right around WR 5-6. I'd caution about falling into a trap of not being properly high on him because he was cheap to acquire.

Again, I believe I was the very first person pumping up Puka on this site. So you are very much preaching to the choir here.

I am extremely high on him for fantasy. Not quite as high as you are, but definitely up there.

I am not quite as confident as you that the Rams will be able to easily replace Matt Stafford. My opinion, they absolutely should’ve drafted a quarterback this year. and with just one season under his belt, I have a difficult time saying with confidence the Nacua is quarterback-proof.

That said, regardless of whether he hits his peak or not, I find myself in a situation where I have to look at team build versus the pieces I have. Having 1 quarterback is not a winning strategy. My roster is otherwise built to win now.

I’m trying to exercise all options to obtain a quarterback… So far this remains my most promising. That said, I give it about a 15% chance the owner accepts it. maybe less.

I really hate sf when it comes to deals like this.

We live in a world where Bo Nix was selected as the number 12 pick. His upside is career back up. If literally everything goes right for him. We are about 23 months from a fired executive writing a 25 minute read on The Athletic about why drafting a back up QB in the top 15 is actually a smart move.

Fantasy cannot replicate real llfe. It shouldn't try. But SF gets QB value somewhere in the range of where it should be.

I'm far from a Nix truther, but you're wildly underestimating his upside. I think he's the most accurate college QB of all time. He's starting for a head coach that usually has fantasy relevant QBs. He could be the next Mac Jones, sure. But he also could be a Kirk Cousins.

I like Nix because one of the first interviews after drafting him, Sean Payton had a smile on his face like he got caught with his hand in the cookie jar.

 

[Big Nate]

I lost Akers and Dobbins, both who I had recently acquired when they went down with season ending injuries. I'm very reluctant to acquire RBs right now as so much can change going into the season.

I think this is flawed reasoning. You cannot predict injuries and you could have easily lost the RB's you already had on the roster to season ending injuries. Trading for them didn't have any bearing on that happening. Injuries happen and they suck when they do but not making moves now because you are worried that the guys you are getting will get hurt is just unnecessary. Trades have zero bearing on that. Definitely not a reason to prohibit trading.

It is the time of the year - I said I'm very reluctant to trade for RBs right now. You don't need to start anyone right now, especially at RB which is the most volatile year to year, or even month to month during the season. Sure there are deals to be had at this time of year, especially vets but there is risk as well.

RBs have a short shelf life compared to WRs, QBs or even TEs. I stand by my conviction that trading for RBs is risky right now. If a smash deal comes across my plate I'll take it but I'm not actively looking to buy RBs right now, especially with so much that will happen in camp and pre-season.

 

[Gally]

I stand by my conviction that trading for RBs is risky right now.

I think you can take away the "right now". Trading for RB's is always risky due to the nature of the position. It isn't more risky now or later (due to injury). It's risky for role but that is why you can get great value if you know where to look and are a good (or lucky) evaluator.

My only point is that now is the time to figure out value inequities and take advantage of them. RB's are not any riskier than any other value searches now when compared to trading later. The only difference is you might get a much better deal now.

I am also not advocating for paying full price or close to it now. This is only to get a value trade in. If the value isn't there then it's not worth it.

 

[Ray Barboni]

Price check on Kelce? Overall, but I’d like to add these caveats:

TEP (1.5ppr)
Non startup, contract auction league. So let’s pretend you’d be acquiring his restricted free agent rights ONLY. You’d still have to match the highest bidder at auction. With no compensation if you either get outbid, or feel it’s too heavy of a cost.

These are always tricky, I know.

But how much would you pay (rookie draft picks) for the right to match the highest bidder at auction, for 3yrs of Kelce?

$200 allotment each year, but unspent “money” is carried over - which some some jerks have in excess of $600 and others are starting with the yearly $200 (maybe under).

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I stand by my conviction that trading for RBs is risky right now.

I think you can take away the "right now". Trading for RB's is always risky due to the nature of the position. It isn't more risky now or later (due to injury). It's risky for role but that is why you can get great value if you know where to look and are a good (or lucky) evaluator.

My only point is that now is the time to figure out value inequities and take advantage of them. RB's are not any riskier than any other value searches now when compared to trading later. The only difference is you might get a much better deal now.

I am also not advocating for paying full price or close to it now. This is only to get a value trade in. If the value isn't there then it's not worth it.

I’ll add to this that dealing for someone like Mixon (using my example) seems far less risky considering his relatively known situation. The Texans didn’t give him a 2-year deal to make him a breather back. He’s coming to an offensive scheme tailor made for his run style, and also of import, not a good fit for Pierce’s. As such it’s logical to assume Mixon will have something resembling a feature back role in what looks like a very good offense.

If we were talking about making deals for one of the Bears RBs, or betting on LAC or CAR’s RB room ok, that would seem incredibly risky this time of year. Better to wait for the dust to settle in training camp to see who the winners and losers of the off-season are.

But buying known commodities like CMC, Mixon, Gibbs, Monty, ETN, KWIII, Connor, Henry, etc - sure, there are individual risks with each of these backs, be it age or durability. That’s the position, as you said. But there’s not a lot of risk in terms of preseason injury because most of those cats won’t play much, nor is there much question about role/value assuming a healthy season.

It’s never a good time to deal for RBs. They get hurt. But I’ll say this - my trade for Connor at the deadline last year is a huge reason I cashed a ‘ship in that league. And that’s a little bit ironic as he’s not historically been the most reliable asset.

To me trading for players is all about timing. The best times to deal are
• trade deadline to make a push all-in
• early offseason when team owners have rookie fever and covet picks over players
• when opportunity knocks.

On that last point, I had no intention of seeking out a Mixon deal. Owner announced a rebuild, started making deals. Sometimes ya have to take advantage of the opportunity despite the timing. This was such an example. Other owners in the league I’m friendly with have since mentioned to me that they also wanted Mixon, so I may flip him before the season starts. But sometimes you need to make quick decisions & let the chips fall where they may.

Every player is risky in FF. I drafted Chase 1.06 last year in a 12-team redraft marveling at my luck that he fell that far. Totally reliable asset, youth, upside, elite QB. Oh what a delightful experience that was.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Price check on Kelce? Overall, but I’d like to add these caveats:

TEP (1.5ppr)
Non startup, contract auction league. So let’s pretend you’d be acquiring his restricted free agent rights ONLY. You’d still have to match the highest bidder at auction. With no compensation if you either get outbid, or feel it’s too heavy of a cost.

These are always tricky, I know.

But how much would you pay (rookie draft picks) for the right to match the highest bidder at auction, for 3yrs of Kelce?

$200 allotment each year, but unspent “money” is carried over - which some some jerks have in excess of $600 and others are starting with the yearly $200 (maybe under).

I can't imagine he'd be worth much in the way of picks if there's significant risk of someone else outbidding you. In 1QB TEP non-contract leagues I have him valued right around 1.11-2.02 or "late" 2025 first. It's probably worth a mid to late 2025 second for the chance to bid on his contract. I'm not sure I would pay more than that, but I also don't play in those leagues at all.

 

[Rockchild]

I stand by my conviction that trading for RBs is risky right now.

I think you can take away the "right now". Trading for RB's is always risky due to the nature of the position. It isn't more risky now or later (due to injury). It's risky for role but that is why you can get great value if you know where to look and are a good (or lucky) evaluator.

My only point is that now is the time to figure out value inequities and take advantage of them. RB's are not any riskier than any other value searches now when compared to trading later. The only difference is you might get a much better deal now.

I am also not advocating for paying full price or close to it now. This is only to get a value trade in. If the value isn't there then it's not worth it.

I’ll add to this that dealing for someone like Mixon (using my example) seems far less risky considering his relatively known situation. The Texans didn’t give him a 2-year deal to make him a breather back. He’s coming to an offensive scheme tailor made for his run style, and also of import, not a good fit for Pierce’s. As such it’s logical to assume Mixon will have something resembling a feature back role in what looks like a very good offense.

If we were talking about making deals for one of the Bears RBs, or betting on LAC or CAR’s RB room ok, that would seem incredibly risky this time of year. Better to wait for the dust to settle in training camp to see who the winners and losers of the off-season are.

But buying known commodities like CMC, Mixon, Gibbs, Monty, ETN, KWIII, Connor, Henry, etc - sure, there are individual risks with each of these backs, be it age or durability. That’s the position, as you said. But there’s not a lot of risk in terms of preseason injury because most of those cats won’t play much, nor is there much question about role/value assuming a healthy season.

It’s never a good time to deal for RBs. They get hurt. But I’ll say this - my trade for Connor at the deadline last year is a huge reason I cashed a ‘ship in that league. And that’s a little bit ironic as he’s not historically been the most reliable asset.

To me trading for players is all about timing. The best times to deal are
• trade deadline to make a push all-in
• early offseason when team owners have rookie fever and covet picks over players
• when opportunity knocks.

On that last point, I had no intention of seeking out a Mixon deal. Owner announced a rebuild, started making deals. Sometimes ya have to take advantage of the opportunity despite the timing. This was such an example. Other owners in the league I’m friendly with have since mentioned to me that they also wanted Mixon, so I may flip him before the season starts. But sometimes you need to make quick decisions & let the chips fall where they may.

Every player is risky in FF. I drafted Chase 1.06 last year in a 12-team redraft marveling at my luck that he fell that far. Totally reliable asset, youth, upside, elite QB. Oh what a delightful experience that was.

Trades are all about timing. I like making deals and send out offers and inquiries all the time. Another owner always asks how I do it. I say it's easy. Keep communicating, keep looking at other rosters, keep reading player and team updates, keep looking for undervalued players. Be open to offers, be open to countering, be open to trading any player or pick, be open to being wrong, be open to not being scared to be wrong.

 

[Ilov80s]

General thoughts on Achane and Jayden Reed?

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

General thoughts on Achane and Jayden Reed?

Achane - I'm not high on him mainly because I think he's too small to handle the pounding of a full season at 5'8" 187lbs. Lots of folks are, rightfully so. He's got tons of talent and speed out the wazoo. That backfield is also a full blown committee and I think both he and Mostert overachieved on TDs last season. Both probably regress to the mean.

Reed - I like Reed's talent, but the Packers WR room is crowded. I expect two of Watson/Doubs/Reed/Wicks to have solid seasons if any of them can stay healthy for 17 games. Add in an emerging TE duo in Musgrave/Kraft and there's just too much uncertainty to give much of a prognosis for Reed.

Both these guys are high risk/high reward kinds of Fantasy plays. Achane is valued around a mid 2024 1st and Reed is valued around a late 2024 1st. I don't think either are a value play right now because of risk vs cost.

 

[Ilov80s]

General thoughts on Achane and Jayden Reed?

Achane - I'm not high on him mainly because I think he's too small to handle the pounding of a full season at 5'8" 187lbs. Lots of folks are, rightfully so. He's got tons of talent and speed out the wazoo. That backfield is also a full blown committee and I think both he and Mostert overachieved on TDs last season. Both probably regress to the mean.

Reed - I like Reed's talent, but the Packers WR room is crowded. I expect two of Watson/Doubs/Reed/Wicks to have solid seasons if any of them can stay healthy for 17 games. Add in an emerging TE duo in Musgrave/Kraft and there's just too much uncertainty to give much of a prognosis for Reed.

Both these guys are high risk/high reward kinds of Fantasy plays. Achane is valued around a mid 2024 1st and Reed is valued around a late 2024 1st. I don't think either are a value play right now because of risk vs cost.

Thanks, good analysis. They are an interesting pair because like you said the potential is obvious but both face real touch concerns. Achane is a 22 year old RB who averaged 17 PPR PPG, usually that guy gets vaulted into a top 10 dynasty asset. With Reed, he was 2nd round rookie who led his team in receptions, yards from a scrimmage and total TDs- oh and he’s paired with a prolific young QB. That guy is also usually a top 10 type dynasty asset. Are we overthinking it with these guys or is it truly too crowded on their teams? I’m so torn. Your input is very much appreciated.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

General thoughts on Achane and Jayden Reed?

Achane - I'm not high on him mainly because I think he's too small to handle the pounding of a full season at 5'8" 187lbs. Lots of folks are, rightfully so. He's got tons of talent and speed out the wazoo. That backfield is also a full blown committee and I think both he and Mostert overachieved on TDs last season. Both probably regress to the mean.

Reed - I like Reed's talent, but the Packers WR room is crowded. I expect two of Watson/Doubs/Reed/Wicks to have solid seasons if any of them can stay healthy for 17 games. Add in an emerging TE duo in Musgrave/Kraft and there's just too much uncertainty to give much of a prognosis for Reed.

Both these guys are high risk/high reward kinds of Fantasy plays. Achane is valued around a mid 2024 1st and Reed is valued around a late 2024 1st. I don't think either are a value play right now because of risk vs cost.

Thanks, good analysis. They are an interesting pair because like you said the potential is obvious but both face real touch concerns. Achane is a 22 year old RB who averaged 17 PPR PPG, usually that guy gets vaulted into a top 10 dynasty asset. With Reed, he was 2nd round rookie who led his team in receptions, yards from a scrimmage and total TDs- oh and he’s paired with a prolific young QB. That guy is also usually a top 10 type dynasty asset. Are we overthinking it with these guys or is it truly too crowded on their teams? I’m so torn. Your input is very much appreciated.

I hear ya. My counter to that is BOTH teams had injuries in their respective depth chart which allowed Reed/Achane to get more touches than they likely would have. Injuries happen and both stepped up when called, but will that opportunity be there this season? Again, that's part of the risk/reward I see with these two overvalued (IMO) players.

 

[Skipdog77]

Trades are all about timing. I like making deals and send out offers and inquiries all the time. Another owner always asks how I do it. I say it's easy. Keep communicating, keep looking at other rosters, keep reading player and team updates, keep looking for undervalued players. Be open to offers, be open to countering, be open to trading any player or pick, be open to being wrong, be open to not being scared to be wrong.

This is key. I personally still have some PTSD from when I traded Randy Moss after his ~500 yd 3 TD season in Oakland, and then proceeded to watch him put up ~1500 yds and 23 TDs in New England the next year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Price check on Kelce? Overall, but I’d like to add these caveats:

TEP (1.5ppr)
Non startup, contract auction league. So let’s pretend you’d be acquiring his restricted free agent rights ONLY. You’d still have to match the highest bidder at auction. With no compensation if you either get outbid, or feel it’s too heavy of a cost.

These are always tricky, I know.

But how much would you pay (rookie draft picks) for the right to match the highest bidder at auction, for 3yrs of Kelce?

$200 allotment each year, but unspent “money” is carried over - which some some jerks have in excess of $600 and others are starting with the yearly $200 (maybe under).

FWIW I play in a league with roll-over FAAB $

I hate it as well, but it is what it is.

Trades are all about timing. I like making deals and send out offers and inquiries all the time. Another owner always asks how I do it. I say it's easy. Keep communicating, keep looking at other rosters, keep reading player and team updates, keep looking for undervalued players. Be open to offers, be open to countering, be open to trading any player or pick, be open to being wrong, be open to not being scared to be wrong.

This is key. I personally still have some PTSD from when I traded Randy Moss after his ~500 yd 3 TD season in Oakland, and then proceeded to watch him put up ~1500 yds and 23 TDs in New England the next year.

reasonably certain your trade partner still tells the story about the greatest deal he ever made when he got Randy Moss after his 500 yard season in Oakland.

I feel for ya - I’m the guy who dealt Brady after his washed out season in NE, right before he went to TB & blew up. I believe I got a 3rd round pick for him.

 

[massraider]

General thoughts on Achane and Jayden Reed?

I think the GB WR situation in general is fun to follow, and I will really be paying attention to preseason work and rumors.

Everything I have seen from fantasy writers is pretty lame. They have all these guys, and no one is gonna eat, because they like all these young guys.

I mean, maybe, I guess....but how often do teams spread around the ball like that? I am betting on Reed and Wicks to be the main guys.

Reed put up 800/8 his rookie year, and Love seems to be the goods. Aside from his size, it's all awesome, isn't it?

 

[Ilov80s]

General thoughts on Achane and Jayden Reed?

I think the GB WR situation in general is fun to follow, and I will really be paying attention to preseason work and rumors.

Everything I have seen from fantasy writers is pretty lame. They have all these guys, and no one is gonna eat, because they like all these young guys.

I mean, maybe, I guess....but how often do teams spread around the ball like that? I am betting on Reed and Wicks to be the main guys.

Reed put up 800/8 his rookie year, and Love seems to be the goods. Aside from his size, it's all awesome, isn't it?

And even his size doesn’t seem to be an issue. He’s about the same size as Diggs, Tyreek. Plus it seems like they do want to scheme him touches in a Deebo like role. But as has been mentioned that also could have been due to injuries to Aaron Jones.

 

[Skipdog77]

Price check on Kelce? Overall, but I’d like to add these caveats:

TEP (1.5ppr)
Non startup, contract auction league. So let’s pretend you’d be acquiring his restricted free agent rights ONLY. You’d still have to match the highest bidder at auction. With no compensation if you either get outbid, or feel it’s too heavy of a cost.

These are always tricky, I know.

But how much would you pay (rookie draft picks) for the right to match the highest bidder at auction, for 3yrs of Kelce?

$200 allotment each year, but unspent “money” is carried over - which some some jerks have in excess of $600 and others are starting with the yearly $200 (maybe under).

FWIW I play in a league with roll-over FAAB $

I hate it as well, but it is what it is.

Trades are all about timing. I like making deals and send out offers and inquiries all the time. Another owner always asks how I do it. I say it's easy. Keep communicating, keep looking at other rosters, keep reading player and team updates, keep looking for undervalued players. Be open to offers, be open to countering, be open to trading any player or pick, be open to being wrong, be open to not being scared to be wrong.

This is key. I personally still have some PTSD from when I traded Randy Moss after his ~500 yd 3 TD season in Oakland, and then proceeded to watch him put up ~1500 yds and 23 TDs in New England the next year.

reasonably certain your trade partner still tells the story about the greatest deal he ever made when he got Randy Moss after his 500 yard season in Oakland.

I feel for ya - I’m the guy who dealt Brady after his washed out season in NE, right before he went to TB & blew up. I believe I got a 3rd round pick for him.

Man, I wish he could still rub it in my face but we unfortunately lost him to cancer a few years ago. Was a local firefighter here, went down to NYC during 9/11 to help with rescue/recovery efforts. Great guy, the only one we've lost like that in our league that is closing in on our 30th year. Keeps me realizing to not sweat the small stuff as much as possible, and to be the help when I can though.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

General thoughts on Achane and Jayden Reed?

I think the GB WR situation in general is fun to follow, and I will really be paying attention to preseason work and rumors.

Everything I have seen from fantasy writers is pretty lame. They have all these guys, and no one is gonna eat, because they like all these young guys.

I mean, maybe, I guess....but how often do teams spread around the ball like that? I am betting on Reed and Wicks to be the main guys.

Reed put up 800/8 his rookie year, and Love seems to be the goods. Aside from his size, it's all awesome, isn't it?

And even his size doesn’t seem to be an issue. He’s about the same size as Diggs, Tyreek. Plus it seems like they do want to scheme him touches in a Deebo like role. But as has been mentioned that also could have been due to injuries to Aaron Jones.

Not great comparisons. Tyreek ran a 4.29 40 vs Reed running a 4.45. Diggs is 15lbs heavier and 3" taller with a similar 40 time to Reed.

@massraider is correct in the media gushing over the Packers WR room. There's also been a lot of gushing over Christian Watson (6'4" 205lb 4.36 40) getting his hamstring issues right. But honestly, how often absent injury and crappy play, does the WR lineup change once the season starts? I suspect Watson and Doubs will start out wide and Reed/Wicks will start in the slot. If pressed, I'd guess they put Reed in the slot (He took 2/3 of his snaps in the slot last year) and Wicks will probably spell all 3 as more of a rotational player or in the odd 4 wide set. I have these guys projected as follows:

Watson 75/975/9
Reed 70/850/6
Doubs 55/625/4
Wicks 40/500/2

Musgrave 55/600/6
Kraft 25/325/2

Jacobs 45/400/1

 

[Ilov80s]

General thoughts on Achane and Jayden Reed?

I think the GB WR situation in general is fun to follow, and I will really be paying attention to preseason work and rumors.

Everything I have seen from fantasy writers is pretty lame. They have all these guys, and no one is gonna eat, because they like all these young guys.

I mean, maybe, I guess....but how often do teams spread around the ball like that? I am betting on Reed and Wicks to be the main guys.

Reed put up 800/8 his rookie year, and Love seems to be the goods. Aside from his size, it's all awesome, isn't it?

And even his size doesn’t seem to be an issue. He’s about the same size as Diggs, Tyreek. Plus it seems like they do want to scheme him touches in a Deebo like role. But as has been mentioned that also could have been due to injuries to Aaron Jones.

Not great comparisons. Tyreek ran a 4.29 40 vs Reed running a 4.45. Diggs is 15lbs heavier and 3" taller with a similar 40 time to Reed.

@massraider is correct in the media gushing over the Packers WR room. There's also been a lot of gushing over Christian Watson (6'4" 205lb 4.36 40) getting his hamstring issues right. But honestly, how often absent injury and crappy play, does the WR lineup change once the season starts? I suspect Watson and Doubs will start out wide and Reed/Wicks will start in the slot. If pressed, I'd guess they put Reed in the slot (He took 2/3 of his snaps in the slot last year) and Wicks will probably spell all 3 as more of a rotational player or in the odd 4 wide set. I have these guys projected as follows:

Watson 75/975/9
Reed 70/850/6
Doubs 55/625/4
Wicks 40/500/2

Musgrave 55/600/6
Kraft 25/325/2

Jacobs 45/400/1

Didn’t say he was the same athlete as Tyreek. Just same build. Diggs measured 1 inch taller and 4 pounds heavier coming into the league.

 

[menobrown]

General thoughts on Achane and Jayden Reed?

Reeds' slightly overrated, maybe a bit highly so in redraft but just slightly in dynasty. He's good but he's probably a 60% snap count player who won't be on the field when GB is not going with 3+ WR sets. Statistical growth is not always linear and I don't see him repeating 10 TD's on 105 total touches(ETA to add "intended touches", only 75 actual touches). As a long term dynasty asset I like him more then redraft as eventually, though it might be a few years, things should thin out in GB and he's got a skillset to evolve into being more of an everydown player.

Achane is interesting because he's a young second year RB and his price is almost dead on identical in redraft as it is in dynasty and I don't see that as crazy. IMO it speaks to the concerns people have over his longevity due to small stature and few injuries he had last year. I share those same concerns and he's also someone that despite his youth, at a position I highly value youth, I also feel more comfortable using say a late second on him in redraft then in a dynasty startup or paying that kind of price in an existing league. I think he's going to be really good again next year, might even increase his value, I still am hesitant to trust him as a long term dynasty foundation piece relative to the price.

 

[JoeJoe88]

I’ll try and give as much context to my situation here as I can. I won this league last year. I think I’ve done a good job the last two years putting together a squad that can compete now and also maintaining a nice core of young players so that it can remain competitive for several years. I recently made a trade where I gave up Kyren Williams and my 25’ 1st and acquired Puka. I now have a different manager, the Johnathan Taylor owner, wanting to know what he can add to JT to get Puka.

It’s a 10 man, start 2QB, 1.0 PPR(1.5 TE) start 11.

This is my current projected starting line-up and notable bench players:

CJ Stroud(starter)
Brock Purdy(starter)
Geno Smith
Bryce Young

Bijan(starter)
Gibbs(starter)
Rachaad White (starter)
Kendre Miller

Puka(starter)
Adams(starter)
Aiyuk(starter)
Nico(starter)
Tee(starter)
Metcalf
Flowers
Addison

Pitts(starter)
Ferguson
Musgrave

So, my conundrum is, is it worth moving Puka and getting back JT+? Does it help my line-up in the short term? Do I just hold Puka? I have the WR depth to make the move imo, but Puka is likely my WR1. And what’s the chasm between Puka and JT? He has Brooks as well, but JT+Brooks feels like too much to ask.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

I’ll try and give as much context to my situation here as I can. I won this league last year. I think I’ve done a good job the last two years putting together a squad that can compete now and also maintaining a nice core of young players so that it can remain competitive for several years. I recently made a trade where I gave up Kyren Williams and my 25’ 1st and acquired Puka. I now have a different manager, the Johnathan Taylor owner, wanting to know what he can add to JT to get Puka.

It’s a 10 man, start 2QB, 1.0 PPR(1.5 TE) start 11.

This is my current projected starting line-up and notable bench players:

CJ Stroud(starter)
Brock Purdy(starter)
Geno Smith
Bryce Young

Bijan(starter)
Gibbs(starter)
Rachaad White (starter)
Kendre Miller

Puka(starter)
Adams(starter)
Aiyuk(starter)
Nico(starter)
Tee(starter)
Metcalf
Flowers
Addison

Pitts(starter)
Ferguson
Musgrave

So, my conundrum is, is it worth moving Puka and getting back JT+? Does it help my line-up in the short term? Do I just hold Puka? I have the WR depth to make the move imo, but Puka is likely my WR1. And what’s the chasm between Puka and JT? He has Brooks as well, but JT+Brooks feels like too much to ask.

Can you start a minimum of 1 or 2 RBs?

The way I see it is as follows: Puka >> JT. If you only have to start 1 RB, I think I'd keep the hand I've got. If you start 2RB, then you could make a case that the depth of having JT is worth giving up a 23 year old stud WR. That said, I would be hesitant to trade Puka in either case. Surely you can get a RB4 depth piece without giving up your WR1, right?

 

[JoeJoe88]

I’ll try and give as much context to my situation here as I can. I won this league last year. I think I’ve done a good job the last two years putting together a squad that can compete now and also maintaining a nice core of young players so that it can remain competitive for several years. I recently made a trade where I gave up Kyren Williams and my 25’ 1st and acquired Puka. I now have a different manager, the Johnathan Taylor owner, wanting to know what he can add to JT to get Puka.

It’s a 10 man, start 2QB, 1.0 PPR(1.5 TE) start 11.

This is my current projected starting line-up and notable bench players:

CJ Stroud(starter)
Brock Purdy(starter)
Geno Smith
Bryce Young

Bijan(starter)
Gibbs(starter)
Rachaad White (starter)
Kendre Miller

Puka(starter)
Adams(starter)
Aiyuk(starter)
Nico(starter)
Tee(starter)
Metcalf
Flowers
Addison

Pitts(starter)
Ferguson
Musgrave

So, my conundrum is, is it worth moving Puka and getting back JT+? Does it help my line-up in the short term? Do I just hold Puka? I have the WR depth to make the move imo, but Puka is likely my WR1. And what’s the chasm between Puka and JT? He has Brooks as well, but JT+Brooks feels like too much to ask.

Can you start a minimum of 1 or 2 RBs?

The way I see it is as follows: Puka >> JT. If you only have to start 1 RB, I think I'd keep the hand I've got. If you start 2RB, then you could make a case that the depth of having JT is worth giving up a 23 year old stud WR. That said, I would be hesitant to trade Puka in either case. Surely you can get a RB4 depth piece without giving up your WR1, right?

Yep, have to start 2 RB’s, can start up up 6. Same for WR.

I certainly have more depth at WR than RB, but I also don’t see adding another RB as a complete necessity, either. Worst case I could just roll out Bijan and Gibbs every week and start Puka, Adams, Aiyuk, Nico, Tee and DK/Flowers.

I guess what I’m trying to figure out is adding JT + another decent piece enough of a short-term upgrade to warrant moving Puka for. I guess it depends also on what the other piece is. He also has 4 25’ 1sts(I have none), Brooks, Nabers, Olave, JSN and Bowers.

 

[-OZ-]

I’ll try and give as much context to my situation here as I can. I won this league last year. I think I’ve done a good job the last two years putting together a squad that can compete now and also maintaining a nice core of young players so that it can remain competitive for several years. I recently made a trade where I gave up Kyren Williams and my 25’ 1st and acquired Puka. I now have a different manager, the Johnathan Taylor owner, wanting to know what he can add to JT to get Puka.

It’s a 10 man, start 2QB, 1.0 PPR(1.5 TE) start 11.

This is my current projected starting line-up and notable bench players:

CJ Stroud(starter)
Brock Purdy(starter)
Geno Smith
Bryce Young

Bijan(starter)
Gibbs(starter)
Rachaad White (starter)
Kendre Miller

Puka(starter)
Adams(starter)
Aiyuk(starter)
Nico(starter)
Tee(starter)
Metcalf
Flowers
Addison

Pitts(starter)
Ferguson
Musgrave

So, my conundrum is, is it worth moving Puka and getting back JT+? Does it help my line-up in the short term? Do I just hold Puka? I have the WR depth to make the move imo, but Puka is likely my WR1. And what’s the chasm between Puka and JT? He has Brooks as well, but JT+Brooks feels like too much to ask.

Can you start a minimum of 1 or 2 RBs?

The way I see it is as follows: Puka >> JT. If you only have to start 1 RB, I think I'd keep the hand I've got. If you start 2RB, then you could make a case that the depth of having JT is worth giving up a 23 year old stud WR. That said, I would be hesitant to trade Puka in either case. Surely you can get a RB4 depth piece without giving up your WR1, right?

Yep, have to start 2 RB’s, can start up up 6. Same for WR.

I certainly have more depth at WR than RB, but I also don’t see adding another RB as a complete necessity, either. Worst case I could just roll out Bijan and Gibbs every week and start Puka, Adams, Aiyuk, Nico, Tee and DK/Flowers.

I guess what I’m trying to figure out is adding JT + another decent piece enough of a short-term upgrade to warrant moving Puka for. I guess it depends also on what the other piece is. He also has 4 25’ 1sts(I have none), Brooks, Nabers, Olave, JSN and Bowers.

If you can somehow get JSN + JT for Puka, even if you included something small, I think that’s a decent COA.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’ll try and give as much context to my situation here as I can. I won this league last year. I think I’ve done a good job the last two years putting together a squad that can compete now and also maintaining a nice core of young players so that it can remain competitive for several years. I recently made a trade where I gave up Kyren Williams and my 25’ 1st and acquired Puka. I now have a different manager, the Johnathan Taylor owner, wanting to know what he can add to JT to get Puka.

It’s a 10 man, start 2QB, 1.0 PPR(1.5 TE) start 11.

This is my current projected starting line-up and notable bench players:

CJ Stroud(starter)
Brock Purdy(starter)
Geno Smith
Bryce Young

Bijan(starter)
Gibbs(starter)
Rachaad White (starter)
Kendre Miller

Puka(starter)
Adams(starter)
Aiyuk(starter)
Nico(starter)
Tee(starter)
Metcalf
Flowers
Addison

Pitts(starter)
Ferguson
Musgrave

So, my conundrum is, is it worth moving Puka and getting back JT+? Does it help my line-up in the short term? Do I just hold Puka? I have the WR depth to make the move imo, but Puka is likely my WR1. And what’s the chasm between Puka and JT? He has Brooks as well, but JT+Brooks feels like too much to ask.

I don’t mind moving a WR for a RB in context.

I would see what you can get for Higgins first. Maybe DKM 2nd.

But if you’ve exhausted those trade options & Puka for JT is the best you can come up with, I don’t hate it.

My main concern for you is Adams potential to fall off of a cliff at any moment.

But with DKM languishing on the bench, you’re deep enough to do that & likely be stronger for it.

You’re also strong enough to stand pat & not give a competitor a WR to start against you.

 

[menobrown]

I’ll try and give as much context to my situation here as I can. I won this league last year. I think I’ve done a good job the last two years putting together a squad that can compete now and also maintaining a nice core of young players so that it can remain competitive for several years. I recently made a trade where I gave up Kyren Williams and my 25’ 1st and acquired Puka. I now have a different manager, the Johnathan Taylor owner, wanting to know what he can add to JT to get Puka.

It’s a 10 man, start 2QB, 1.0 PPR(1.5 TE) start 11.

This is my current projected starting line-up and notable bench players:

CJ Stroud(starter)
Brock Purdy(starter)
Geno Smith
Bryce Young

Bijan(starter)
Gibbs(starter)
Rachaad White (starter)
Kendre Miller

Puka(starter)
Adams(starter)
Aiyuk(starter)
Nico(starter)
Tee(starter)
Metcalf
Flowers
Addison

Pitts(starter)
Ferguson
Musgrave

So, my conundrum is, is it worth moving Puka and getting back JT+? Does it help my line-up in the short term? Do I just hold Puka? I have the WR depth to make the move imo, but Puka is likely my WR1. And what’s the chasm between Puka and JT? He has Brooks as well, but JT+Brooks feels like too much to ask.

My final answer depends on the plus but I'd want a lot back to move off Puka for JT.

I think it would help your RB depth which is a bigger need then your WR depth. That's the main reason for doing it. I think it would be a big sacrifice to your longterm stud core.

Here is my concern with Taylor, who I do like to rebound this year but I'm uneasy about his longevity. Got rode hard in college and had a 5 year period where he took on about 300 carries a year. Is it starting to take it's toll? After that 5 year run his YPC has dipped the last two years and he went from being known as being so super durable that he never missed practice and now has had b2b years of injuries leading to a good amount of missed games. His contract extension he just signed turns into a year to year deal with easy outs and no guarantees after this year and I'd imagine their plan is to ride him very hard again this year. Maybe some of the missed time the last two years will have him a little more fresh but I got concerns the workload is starting to take it's toll and he's someone that perhaps in 2 years or so or even will have petered out and lost meaningful value.

Similar to what HSG is saying I'd try and peel off another WR instead if you want RB depth, not the one I consider your most prized young WR possession. Flowers and Addison would be ideal candidates if you can capitalize, with Flowers tied to the hip with Lamar and Addison with JJ and Hock their upside may be such that combined with your WR depth neither is going to help you a lot over the next few seasons. They both would, to me, have a lot more value to teams thinner at WR.

 

[JoeJoe88]

I’ll try and give as much context to my situation here as I can. I won this league last year. I think I’ve done a good job the last two years putting together a squad that can compete now and also maintaining a nice core of young players so that it can remain competitive for several years. I recently made a trade where I gave up Kyren Williams and my 25’ 1st and acquired Puka. I now have a different manager, the Johnathan Taylor owner, wanting to know what he can add to JT to get Puka.

It’s a 10 man, start 2QB, 1.0 PPR(1.5 TE) start 11.

This is my current projected starting line-up and notable bench players:

CJ Stroud(starter)
Brock Purdy(starter)
Geno Smith
Bryce Young

Bijan(starter)
Gibbs(starter)
Rachaad White (starter)
Kendre Miller

Puka(starter)
Adams(starter)
Aiyuk(starter)
Nico(starter)
Tee(starter)
Metcalf
Flowers
Addison

Pitts(starter)
Ferguson
Musgrave

So, my conundrum is, is it worth moving Puka and getting back JT+? Does it help my line-up in the short term? Do I just hold Puka? I have the WR depth to make the move imo, but Puka is likely my WR1. And what’s the chasm between Puka and JT? He has Brooks as well, but JT+Brooks feels like too much to ask.

My final answer depends on the plus but I'd want a lot back to move off Puka for JT.

I think it would help your RB depth which is a bigger need then your WR depth. That's the main reason for doing it. I think it would be a big sacrifice to your longterm stud core.

Here is my concern with Taylor, who I do like to rebound this year but I'm uneasy about his longevity. Got rode hard in college and had a 5 year period where he took on about 300 carries a year. Is it starting to take it's toll? After that 5 year run his YPC has dipped the last two years and he went from being known as being so super durable that he never missed practice and now has had b2b years of injuries leading to a good amount of missed games. His contract extension he just signed turns into a year to year deal with easy outs and no guarantees after this year and I'd imagine their plan is to ride him very hard again this year. Maybe some of the missed time the last two years will have him a little more fresh but I got concerns the workload is starting to take it's toll and he's someone that perhaps in 2 years or so or even will have petered out and lost meaningful value.

Similar to what HSG is saying I'd try and peel off another WR instead if you want RB depth, not the one I consider your most prized young WR possession. Flowers and Addison would be ideal candidates if you can capitalize, with Flowers tied to the hip with Lamar and Addison with JJ and Hock their upside may be such that combined with your WR depth neither is going to help you a lot over the next few seasons. They both would, to me, have a lot more value to teams thinner at WR.

How would you feel about the aforementioned trade Oz mentioned, JT and JSN for Puka? I would prefer JT and Brooks, but I fear that’s pushing it.

 

[menobrown]

I’ll try and give as much context to my situation here as I can. I won this league last year. I think I’ve done a good job the last two years putting together a squad that can compete now and also maintaining a nice core of young players so that it can remain competitive for several years. I recently made a trade where I gave up Kyren Williams and my 25’ 1st and acquired Puka. I now have a different manager, the Johnathan Taylor owner, wanting to know what he can add to JT to get Puka.

It’s a 10 man, start 2QB, 1.0 PPR(1.5 TE) start 11.

This is my current projected starting line-up and notable bench players:

CJ Stroud(starter)
Brock Purdy(starter)
Geno Smith
Bryce Young

Bijan(starter)
Gibbs(starter)
Rachaad White (starter)
Kendre Miller

Puka(starter)
Adams(starter)
Aiyuk(starter)
Nico(starter)
Tee(starter)
Metcalf
Flowers
Addison

Pitts(starter)
Ferguson
Musgrave

So, my conundrum is, is it worth moving Puka and getting back JT+? Does it help my line-up in the short term? Do I just hold Puka? I have the WR depth to make the move imo, but Puka is likely my WR1. And what’s the chasm between Puka and JT? He has Brooks as well, but JT+Brooks feels like too much to ask.

My final answer depends on the plus but I'd want a lot back to move off Puka for JT.

I think it would help your RB depth which is a bigger need then your WR depth. That's the main reason for doing it. I think it would be a big sacrifice to your longterm stud core.

Here is my concern with Taylor, who I do like to rebound this year but I'm uneasy about his longevity. Got rode hard in college and had a 5 year period where he took on about 300 carries a year. Is it starting to take it's toll? After that 5 year run his YPC has dipped the last two years and he went from being known as being so super durable that he never missed practice and now has had b2b years of injuries leading to a good amount of missed games. His contract extension he just signed turns into a year to year deal with easy outs and no guarantees after this year and I'd imagine their plan is to ride him very hard again this year. Maybe some of the missed time the last two years will have him a little more fresh but I got concerns the workload is starting to take it's toll and he's someone that perhaps in 2 years or so or even will have petered out and lost meaningful value.

Similar to what HSG is saying I'd try and peel off another WR instead if you want RB depth, not the one I consider your most prized young WR possession. Flowers and Addison would be ideal candidates if you can capitalize, with Flowers tied to the hip with Lamar and Addison with JJ and Hock their upside may be such that combined with your WR depth neither is going to help you a lot over the next few seasons. They both would, to me, have a lot more value to teams thinner at WR.

How would you feel about the aforementioned trade Oz mentioned, JT and JSN for Puka? I would prefer JT and Brooks, but I fear that’s pushing it.

I'd pass on it personally, but I should point out I've been lower on JSN then consensus and think he'd just end up at the bottom of your WR pecking order.

Could Flowers or Addison get you Brooks? I think I'd just do that if you can and forget the JT/Puka aspect, peel of a WR you can afford to lose, add depth and youth at RB while keeping your young stud WR. Feel like a move like that helps you now and better positions you to put a stranglehold on the league for a few years.

 

[JoeJoe88]

Would you guys package Brandon Aiyuk and either Tee Higgins or D.K. Metcalf to tier up to Amon-Ra if you were deep at WR? Full PPR, start 11.

Current WR Room:

Puka
Adams
Aiyuk
Nico
DK
Tee
Flowers
Addison

And a couple lesser guys like Shaheed, Wicks, Burton, etc

Probably starting 3 RB’s most weeks so I’d be rolling out 5 WR’s most weeks. Better to keep the depth I currently have or tier up to a hammer?

 

[Big Nate]

Would you guys package Brandon Aiyuk and either Tee Higgins or D.K. Metcalf to tier up to Amon-Ra if you were deep at WR? Full PPR, start 11.

Current WR Room:

Puka
Adams
Aiyuk
Nico
DK
Tee
Flowers
Addison

And a couple lesser guys like Shaheed, Wicks, Burton, etc

Probably starting 3 RB’s most weeks so I’d be rolling out 5 WR’s most weeks. Better to keep the depth I currently have or tier up to a hammer?

I don't mid the idea of a tier up in this case to get ARSB. I like the idea of Aiyuk and either one of those guys. Would you be able to get another small piece added in? They might not go for it but maybe a 2026 third? Or some flyer RB/TE? Doesn't hurt to ask but I like the idea considering your depth. Go all in to win.

 

[joey]

Would you guys package Brandon Aiyuk and either Tee Higgins or D.K. Metcalf to tier up to Amon-Ra if you were deep at WR? Full PPR, start 11.

Current WR Room:

Puka
Adams
Aiyuk
Nico
DK
Tee
Flowers
Addison

And a couple lesser guys like Shaheed, Wicks, Burton, etc

Probably starting 3 RB’s most weeks so I’d be rolling out 5 WR’s most weeks. Better to keep the depth I currently have or tier up to a hammer?

I don't mid the idea of a tier up in this case to get ARSB. I like the idea of Aiyuk and either one of those guys. Would you be able to get another small piece added in? They might not go for it but maybe a 2026 third? Or some flyer RB/TE? Doesn't hurt to ask but I like the idea considering your depth. Go all in to win.

Agreed that tiering up to ARSB is a great idea if you can pull it off, but trying to trade Aiyuk at this moment seems like both selling low AND inviting an immediate “reject” from the other owner.

“So I’m trading away a top 5 guy in ARSB for a dude that’s holding out and may not be in SF for long, and then another WR20-ish?”

Just like you’d like to tier up, why would the other owner want to tier down? Unless he has zero WR depth. Is that the case here?

 

[massraider]

Would you guys package Brandon Aiyuk and either Tee Higgins or D.K. Metcalf to tier up to Amon-Ra if you were deep at WR? Full PPR, start 11.

Current WR Room:

Puka
Adams
Aiyuk
Nico
DK
Tee
Flowers
Addison

And a couple lesser guys like Shaheed, Wicks, Burton, etc

Probably starting 3 RB’s most weeks so I’d be rolling out 5 WR’s most weeks. Better to keep the depth I currently have or tier up to a hammer?

I don't mid the idea of a tier up in this case to get ARSB. I like the idea of Aiyuk and either one of those guys. Would you be able to get another small piece added in? They might not go for it but maybe a 2026 third? Or some flyer RB/TE? Doesn't hurt to ask but I like the idea considering your depth. Go all in to win.

Agreed that tiering up to ARSB is a great idea if you can pull it off, but trying to trade Aiyuk at this moment seems like both selling low AND inviting an immediate “reject” from the other owner.

“So I’m trading away a top 5 guy in ARSB for a dude that’s holding out and may not be in SF for long, and then another WR20-ish?”

Just like you’d like to tier up, why would the other owner want to tier down? Unless he has zero WR depth. Is that the case here?

No one worried about mouths to feed in DET?

They hit with two rookies last year, we can expect their numbers to go up, and Jameson Williams could easily command 50+ catches.

 

[Big Nate]

Would you guys package Brandon Aiyuk and either Tee Higgins or D.K. Metcalf to tier up to Amon-Ra if you were deep at WR? Full PPR, start 11.

Current WR Room:

Puka
Adams
Aiyuk
Nico
DK
Tee
Flowers
Addison

And a couple lesser guys like Shaheed, Wicks, Burton, etc

Probably starting 3 RB’s most weeks so I’d be rolling out 5 WR’s most weeks. Better to keep the depth I currently have or tier up to a hammer?

I don't mid the idea of a tier up in this case to get ARSB. I like the idea of Aiyuk and either one of those guys. Would you be able to get another small piece added in? They might not go for it but maybe a 2026 third? Or some flyer RB/TE? Doesn't hurt to ask but I like the idea considering your depth. Go all in to win.

Agreed that tiering up to ARSB is a great idea if you can pull it off, but trying to trade Aiyuk at this moment seems like both selling low AND inviting an immediate “reject” from the other owner.

“So I’m trading away a top 5 guy in ARSB for a dude that’s holding out and may not be in SF for long, and then another WR20-ish?”

Just like you’d like to tier up, why would the other owner want to tier down? Unless he has zero WR depth. Is that the case here?

I have had a ton of offers for Aiyuk this offseason in my one dynasty league. Multiple owners trying to buy and its not low ball offers. All have been solid.

 

[Big Nate]

Would you guys package Brandon Aiyuk and either Tee Higgins or D.K. Metcalf to tier up to Amon-Ra if you were deep at WR? Full PPR, start 11.

Current WR Room:

Puka
Adams
Aiyuk
Nico
DK
Tee
Flowers
Addison

And a couple lesser guys like Shaheed, Wicks, Burton, etc

Probably starting 3 RB’s most weeks so I’d be rolling out 5 WR’s most weeks. Better to keep the depth I currently have or tier up to a hammer?

I don't mid the idea of a tier up in this case to get ARSB. I like the idea of Aiyuk and either one of those guys. Would you be able to get another small piece added in? They might not go for it but maybe a 2026 third? Or some flyer RB/TE? Doesn't hurt to ask but I like the idea considering your depth. Go all in to win.

Agreed that tiering up to ARSB is a great idea if you can pull it off, but trying to trade Aiyuk at this moment seems like both selling low AND inviting an immediate “reject” from the other owner.

“So I’m trading away a top 5 guy in ARSB for a dude that’s holding out and may not be in SF for long, and then another WR20-ish?”

Just like you’d like to tier up, why would the other owner want to tier down? Unless he has zero WR depth. Is that the case here?

No one worried about mouths to feed in DET?

They hit with two rookies last year, we can expect their numbers to go up, and Jameson Williams could easily command 50+ catches.

ARSB is still the #1 target in that offense with LaPorta #2. After that they have no one of note. Maybe JaMo takes a step forward but he hasn't yet. JaMo seems more like the guy to clear out space.

As long as Goff is their QB we know he likes ARSB and the 2 are a perfect fit. ARSB runs the routes Goff likes to throw to.

 

[eighsse2]

Would you guys package Brandon Aiyuk and either Tee Higgins or D.K. Metcalf to tier up to Amon-Ra if you were deep at WR? Full PPR, start 11.

Current WR Room:

Puka
Adams
Aiyuk
Nico
DK
Tee
Flowers
Addison

And a couple lesser guys like Shaheed, Wicks, Burton, etc

Probably starting 3 RB’s most weeks so I’d be rolling out 5 WR’s most weeks. Better to keep the depth I currently have or tier up to a hammer?

Start 11 is a whole lot. Hard for me to fathom as I'm only in a start 6 league (so in my case I would be 100% all over that move). But even with 11, I think I like the idea considering your depth. Without that depth, I would probably not feel good about it.

 

[Big Nate]

Would you guys package Brandon Aiyuk and either Tee Higgins or D.K. Metcalf to tier up to Amon-Ra if you were deep at WR? Full PPR, start 11.

Current WR Room:

Puka
Adams
Aiyuk
Nico
DK
Tee
Flowers
Addison

And a couple lesser guys like Shaheed, Wicks, Burton, etc

Probably starting 3 RB’s most weeks so I’d be rolling out 5 WR’s most weeks. Better to keep the depth I currently have or tier up to a hammer?

Start 11 is a whole lot. Hard for me to fathom as I'm only in a start 6 league (so in my case I would be 100% all over that move). But even with 11, I think I like the idea considering your depth. Without that depth, I would probably not feel good about it.

This is a good point. In a smaller starting roster league it makes sense and is likely a fair deal. With start 11 the depth is huge and the guy getting 2 starting WRs is making out pretty good. That is why I suggested trying to get another small piece (RB/TE) or maybe a 3rd round 2026 pick? Something a year or 2 out? He might not do it but I'd try to ask to get something back. Maybe even a back-up QB if he has a decent one that you could flip for a 2nd rounder if he ends up starting a few weeks.

This type of deal is league dependent and you have to know who you are trading with.

 

[JoeJoe88]

Would you guys package Brandon Aiyuk and either Tee Higgins or D.K. Metcalf to tier up to Amon-Ra if you were deep at WR? Full PPR, start 11.

Current WR Room:

Puka
Adams
Aiyuk
Nico
DK
Tee
Flowers
Addison

And a couple lesser guys like Shaheed, Wicks, Burton, etc

Probably starting 3 RB’s most weeks so I’d be rolling out 5 WR’s most weeks. Better to keep the depth I currently have or tier up to a hammer?

I don't mid the idea of a tier up in this case to get ARSB. I like the idea of Aiyuk and either one of those guys. Would you be able to get another small piece added in? They might not go for it but maybe a 2026 third? Or some flyer RB/TE? Doesn't hurt to ask but I like the idea considering your depth. Go all in to win.

Agreed that tiering up to ARSB is a great idea if you can pull it off, but trying to trade Aiyuk at this moment seems like both selling low AND inviting an immediate “reject” from the other owner.

“So I’m trading away a top 5 guy in ARSB for a dude that’s holding out and may not be in SF for long, and then another WR20-ish?”

Just like you’d like to tier up, why would the other owner want to tier down? Unless he has zero WR depth. Is that the case here?

I have had a ton of offers for Aiyuk this offseason in my one dynasty league. Multiple owners trying to buy and its not low ball offers. All have been solid.

Yeah, I’m not seeing much panic in the dynasty streets over Aiyuk. I’ve had the JT owner trying to do a one-for-one swap for months now. I think most, including myself, expect the Niners to eventually pony up and pay him.

 

[menobrown]

Would you guys package Brandon Aiyuk and either Tee Higgins or D.K. Metcalf to tier up to Amon-Ra if you were deep at WR? Full PPR, start 11.

Current WR Room:

Puka
Adams
Aiyuk
Nico
DK
Tee
Flowers
Addison

And a couple lesser guys like Shaheed, Wicks, Burton, etc

Probably starting 3 RB’s most weeks so I’d be rolling out 5 WR’s most weeks. Better to keep the depth I currently have or tier up to a hammer?

I don't mid the idea of a tier up in this case to get ARSB. I like the idea of Aiyuk and either one of those guys. Would you be able to get another small piece added in? They might not go for it but maybe a 2026 third? Or some flyer RB/TE? Doesn't hurt to ask but I like the idea considering your depth. Go all in to win.

Agreed that tiering up to ARSB is a great idea if you can pull it off, but trying to trade Aiyuk at this moment seems like both selling low AND inviting an immediate “reject” from the other owner.

“So I’m trading away a top 5 guy in ARSB for a dude that’s holding out and may not be in SF for long, and then another WR20-ish?”

Just like you’d like to tier up, why would the other owner want to tier down? Unless he has zero WR depth. Is that the case here?

No one worried about mouths to feed in DET?

They hit with two rookies last year, we can expect their numbers to go up, and Jameson Williams could easily command 50+ catches.

I'm worried about it, worried a little about it this upcoming season, those concerns run deeper in dynasty with ultimately losing Ben Johnson.

 

[Gally]

I’ve had the JT owner trying to do a one-for-one swap for months now

JT = Jon Taylor?

 

[JoeJoe88]

I’ve had the JT owner trying to do a one-for-one swap for months now

JT = Jon Taylor?

Yep.