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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Boston
Footballguy
Only adds to the intrigue...they will have zero connection to him (both coaches and most likely the regime that drafted him)...until you see what they do in the draft and FA you really can't change his value yet whether you like him or don't.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Could this be a "if it looks like a duck" thing?
Boston
Footballguy
Could be...but he has shown enough in the past that you have to keep an open-mind with him and let what happens this offseason dictate his value.
TartanLion
Footballguy
In fairness the Steelers run D is one of the best in the league
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
ETN is a UFA in 2025 and on a reasonable 5th year option contract. Lots of flexibility on both sides right now.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Mims
ghostguy123
Footballguy
What players do you think are currently valued around the #1 pick at the moment?
Or how high would #1 go right now in a startup?
Or how high would #1 go right now in a startup?
joey
Footballguy
The Rb landscape seems pretty bleak beyond the top 6 players or so, and many of them are old, so I could imagine the 1.1 going in the early 2nd round if someone really believed that Jeanty is the next great RB. Especially if he goes into a really good offense.
Tau837
Footballguy
Johnston
RB's over 28 in 2025 - Trade value? Obviously, it's not the years but the miles but thoughts if one were inclined to cash out?
Derrick Henry (32) - late 1st / early 2nd?
Kamara (30) 2nd?
Conner (30) 2nd?
Aaron Jones (30) 2nd?
CMac (29) late 2nd?
Mixon (29) 2nd?
Montgomery (28) 3rd?
Saquon Barkley (28) 1st+?
Tony Pollard (28) late 2nd?
Derrick Henry (32) - late 1st / early 2nd?
Kamara (30) 2nd?
Conner (30) 2nd?
Aaron Jones (30) 2nd?
CMac (29) late 2nd?
Mixon (29) 2nd?
Montgomery (28) 3rd?
Saquon Barkley (28) 1st+?
Tony Pollard (28) late 2nd?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I'd be shocked if people are trading CMC for a 2nd.
Otherwise all looks about right. I might have Monty the same or above mixon
Otherwise all looks about right. I might have Monty the same or above mixon
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He’ll probably fetch that. That price makes me nervous, as the bottom will fall out at some point. Father Time is undefeated.
I’d say he’s past his expiration date. He had several games where he averaged less than 3 YPC, and he was injured quite a bit IIRC. I wouldn’t pay more than a late 3rd for him at this point (which probably means I won’t roster him in dynasty)
Conner was pretty productive and was used quite a bit as a receiver. I’d pay a mid-to-late 2nd for him for sure. I’d probably hold as an owner as he’s worth more to that team than what I’d get in the 2nd.
That’s really the issue for a lot of older players. Unless their FF team is doing a rebuild they’re at the “run them into the ground and retire them on your roster” stage.
Plus holding could mean selling high off a hot start next year even for the rebuilders.
2nd sounds about right.
Oof. Probably? He’s saying all the right things, but bilateral Achilles tendonitis is a chronic condition. He could give you 1 game, 5 games, none games, or play a whole season. It’ll take a brave dynasty manager to buy at that price. It won’t be me.
Maybe less at this point. He was great against bad teams, and terrible against good ones. I have one share and if I can get a 2nd for him I’ll be thrilled.
Probably a 2nd. And an early one at that. Before the late season sprained knee he was one of the most rock solid dependable assets at the position. He was a lock for a TD every week. And he was their main man icing a game with a lead. No way I’d sell for a 3rd.
++
Dude just had an absolutely monster season. I don’t see why shareholders would sell unless they’re rebuilding.
Late 3rd more like. He had a nice early run, but got dinged up & Spears really started eating into his numbers as the season went on.
I’m not the authority on player value, but that’s how I have them.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I roster both in a 12-team & would definitely agree.
I’d go so far as to shop Mixon while holding Monty.
finfansteve
Footballguy
AJB or drake london?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Man that’s tough.
I probably still lean AJB, but London has closed the gap.
This was a down year for AJB, and the rumors of a falling out between AJB & Hurts don’t help his cause.
It’s very close. London is younger, so depending on your team circumstances that probably changes my answer.
finfansteve
Footballguy
Garrett Wilson +1.10 or BTJ?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Without knowing league or roster formats and from a pure value standpoint, probably Wilson + 1.10
I’d personally rather have BTJ, but Wilson’s situation is very much TBD, and the 1.10 is kind of a crapshoot this year.
Would help a little to know if SF or 1 QB (as that impacts who’s likely to be there at 1.10)
I love AJB but I’m going London here. He’s much younger and shown great chemistry with Penix.
BTJ for me, too much uncertainty w/ Wilson, not placing a ton of value in 1.10
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, that’s probably where I’m at as well. 1.10 is a crapshoot
That said, Wilson has delivered solid numbers considering the trash at QB. He’s demanding a trade, no?
I could see an outcome where Wilson is worth more than BTJ with a new home, but at the moment just too much unknown about his future.
efactor
Footballguy
Looks like Jeanty and McMillian are the clear 1-2 in dynasty rookie drafts this year. I have #3 that I got in a trade and #11. Thinking of offering those picks for #2 overall. Worth it to move up one spot? One QB league. Don’t watch much college football so rely on reading up. Hampton, Burden, Hunter, Johnson and Henderson seem to be the next group.
I don’t view McMillian particularly close as being a top 2 lock and I don’t think it’s just me.
efactor
Footballguy
Thanks. Just starting to get up to speed and he seems to be a clear top 2 pick and some saying clear #1 pick. Those saying that seem to question Jeanty because of the schedule he played.
I better hold off on that offer
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Puka
Lansdowne
Footballguy
I see McMillan as being closer to value to Jeanty than he is to whoever is 1.03. Can't even get a consensus after the first two. That will start to change once the Combine and Draft happens of course. Hunter is on record saying he wants to be better than Deion Sanders so that means he's likely coming into the NFL as a full-time CB with some drawn up plays at WR. Would be in the 1.01/1.02 conversation if he 100% committed to WR, but I don't think that's the path he takes. Those other guys you mentioned plus Jenkins, Egbuka and Warren seem to make up the next group and the order likely depends on landing spots.
Excellent rookie season for BTJ but you’d still have to add for me to come off Puka.
I view Jeanty as pretty close to a 1.1 lock.Thanks. Just starting to get up to speed and he seems to be a clear top 2 pick and some saying clear #1 pick. Those saying that seem to question Jeanty because of the schedule he played.
I better hold off on that offer
It's McMillian being viewed as a top two lock I don't agree with.
I think he's a really good prospect who could go 1.2 but I don't think he'll be viewed as on par with last years Big 3 WR's. He might go as high as Rome did but that's based more on the lack of blue chip talent in this draft. But on the positive side he might have been viewed as the same tier as BTJ and if he's remotely that good, or people think he can be, then sure he can easily go 1.2. I'm 100% not here to tell you he can't go that high.
But other then him not being on the level as last years Big 3 is I think we might have multiple NFL first round RB's and if not several chosen really high. If you are playing in 3 minimum start WR league that might be different but good RB prospects who go in round one of NFL drafts in my leagues usually vie for being top picks if they go to favorable situations. So to me I can't sit here and say McMillian is a lock because I think if for example a team like the Chargers or Broncos snag a Hampton or Johnson type I just don't think that will hold.
It's also the only small holdup I have from saying Jeanty is a stone cold lock for 1.1. Close, but I think there is at least a small chance that if he say went to a place with more comp and someone another RB went a few picks after him to a more desirable spot that it would not impact some people. It would take a whole lot for me personally to pass Jeanty at 1.1, if I had it, but others may not take so much.
BTJ due to durability concerns on Puka.
Pretty good, a few I see differnently.
Kamara I value like a late one.
Jones. Not under contract so can't be guaranteed what his role will be next year and gets banged up a lot ,seemingly more as we go along. Lower on him then most until more is known.
CMC-I'd pay a one for him without question. Second ranked player in this list behind Barkley.
Montgomery-more along the lines of an solid/early second for me. Recently extended, not overly worn down, great OL. Losing Ben Johnson who had a knack for when to use his RB's could hurt, but maybe he's not the one who is impacted the most. But I think he can give you pretty close to the kind of production he was given people this year for another 1-2 seasons.
Others seems about right. Depending on the league I could see me consdiering trading for or trading away for prices relatively close to what you are saying.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I agree. It was hard to pick a side here. I’m also concerned about who Puka’s QB will be post-Stafford.
But Puka has more trade value, which is why I picked him. I’d rather own Puka & trade him.
Puka has his injury concerns. But consistency in coaching/usage.
BTJ has organizational/coach concerns. Really depends on the hires in Jacksonville.
If BTJ gets an offensive minded head coach or innovative OC, thats likely my preference. Otherwise give me Puka. I have seen too many vad coaches/OC waste talent.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
finfansteve
Footballguy
Not SF
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
In that case the 1.10 is worth even less.
It’s a tough call. Wilson + 1.10 is the speculative bet side. If you’re a gambler, and if you think Wilson will move on from the Jets, or you think the Jets will solve their QB & coaching issues, and you believe you can identify an outlier at the 1.10 who will deliver FF value, then that side is kind of a no-brainer.
BTJ is tied to his QB for better or worse, and has shown he can produce with TLaw. The Jags are also in flux coaching-wise, which adds a little uncertainty to that side as well.
It’s a hard call.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
If you can successfully predict that the Jets will solve their QB and coaching problems, then you need to go out and buy a lottery ticket right now. Run, don't walk!
joey
Footballguy
Oooh. Oooh. Oooooh….do the Raiders next!If you can successfully predict that the Jets will solve their QB and coaching problems, then you need to go out and buy a lottery ticket right now. Run, don't walk!
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
If you can swap them straight up I would take London pretty easily, personally. I think this is one of those deals where we're right on the verge of them potentially no longer even being close in value. The 4 year age gap is big for similar production and immediate outlook.
This is that funny time of year where people haven't quite adjusted to full offseason mode yet and you can still get youth at a relatively fair cost. Once we get into the heart of the offseason all of these younger guys see their value fly through the roof despite nothing really changing.
Sir Psycho
Footballguy
Saquon Barkley or J.Taylor ?
steelcityman
Footballguy
On that list i have Saquon in one league and it would take a first and more for me to trade him, I see at least 2 more great years in Philly.
I have Kamara in another and a 2nd and he is yours, esp this year with a bunch of RBs in the draft, not sure how many will be good, but what is he now? Saints are awful, Hill will be back, Miller looked okay when not hurt. Walls are closing in on him there. Would love to get rid of him, and would probably do it for an early 3rd rd pick.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I mean, that was kinda my point.If you can successfully predict that the Jets will solve their QB and coaching problems, then you need to go out and buy a lottery ticket right now. Run, don't walk!
rockaction
Footballguy
Brian Thomas over the 1.10 and Garrett Wilson. Who is playing quarterback for the Jets and why are you taking on that uncertainty now? I mean, I assume it’s baked into the price, but it doesn’t seem to be.
rockaction
Footballguy
Here’s a question. Would you do Saquon Barkley for a 2026 one and two? Asking for a friend.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
If I have any championship aspirations in the next two years I’m holding him over that return.
rockaction
Footballguy
Okay. Thanks. Gonna have to come up with something better if I want Saquon, I guess.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
Agreed. It would take more to get him from me. After such a stud season. Maybe if he has some bad/mediocre games people will come down in price.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, I think when I put myself in the other person’s shoes I have to agree with you all. Thing is, I don’t think this person is a contender even though he has Barkley and two other superstar players. The person I’m speaking of is picking first this year, though he finished seventh or eighth in overall points. I mean, my only thought is that he’s a year or two away from contending, and by then the reasons he might possibly be contending (Saquon and another 29 year-old back) are too old to be the cornerstones they are now.
That’s the only reason I think he might even come close to thinking about it.
Just figured I’d clarify. I’m not so far off on Barkley’s value that I’m trying to ignorantly lowball the guy.
Anyway, thanks. That does indeed clarify what people’s thoughts are. According to KeepTradeCut, I’m short by a third-round pick. I doubt that’s what you, ghostguy, and JoeJoe are holding out for, though. LOL. I personally think KTC, which tends to overvalue elite guys, is actually undervaluing Saquon here. We will see.
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