ESPN early win totals. https://x.com/ConnorAllenNFL/status/1904986093545750595
Bears at 8.5.
Which side are you?
Bears at 8.5.
Which side are you?
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Early Win Totals - Bears at 8.5 - Which Side Are You? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Joe Bryant
- Start date
I'm fascinated to see Ben Johnson's impact here.
rockaction
Footballguy
I can get you to nine
Minnesota and Green Bay at home (2), Dallas (3), New York (4), Pittsburgh (5), Cleveland (6), New Orleans (7), and Las Vegas (8). Then we'll throw in Cincinnati and their non-existent defense at (9).
There. Easy peasy. 9-8 Bears.
One question, Joe. I know you like to put numbers on things, but why suss this all out before the draft? There are too many moving parts and variables to give a really good guess right now. We're not in the building. We don't know what each team is really prioritizing nor do we know how they feel about the year. We'll know by the time camp rolls around, which will be after the draft and after the bulk of the remaining free agents have signed.
Dunno. Just thinking about it from the Jets thread. I want to give a number, but I want more information at hand.
Minnesota and Green Bay at home (2), Dallas (3), New York (4), Pittsburgh (5), Cleveland (6), New Orleans (7), and Las Vegas (8). Then we'll throw in Cincinnati and their non-existent defense at (9).
There. Easy peasy. 9-8 Bears.
One question, Joe. I know you like to put numbers on things, but why suss this all out before the draft? There are too many moving parts and variables to give a really good guess right now. We're not in the building. We don't know what each team is really prioritizing nor do we know how they feel about the year. We'll know by the time camp rolls around, which will be after the draft and after the bulk of the remaining free agents have signed.
Dunno. Just thinking about it from the Jets thread. I want to give a number, but I want more information at hand.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Comparing the Bears (8.5 projected wins) to their opponents, they have 9 games against teams projected with more wins than them, 4 games against teams projected with the same number of wins, and 4 games against teams projected with fewer wins than them. Sure, we can come up with ways they get to 9 wins, but Vegas is implying they won't be above .500 (and I would tend to agree).
rockaction
Footballguy
I was being somewhat insouciant. I don't see them winning nine as of now, either.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
As a homer, I'm taking the over as well as the massive disappointment that comes in week 18 when we're 7-10.
That one is simple. I like talking football before the draft.
For sure, this will all adjust from now until Week1.
rockaction
Footballguy
That one is simple. I like talking football before the draft.
For sure, this will all adjust from now until Week1.
You know what? I think I knew why, but you just confirmed it. Very cool. I'm with you.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
Homer picking the over. I like the 9 total.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
NFC North is way too tough right now and the Bears have a brand new HC where as the other teams have a lot more experience right now than Ben Johnson
Bears 8.5
UNDER
Bears 8.5
UNDER
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
A lot is made of who has a first/last place schedule, but in reality that only adds up to 3 out of 17 games. What divisions do they face changes on an already preset rotation year to year. Last year that entire division faced a couple pretty easy divisions, which adds up to 8 games a year. This year the projected SOS looks much tougher for all 4 teams, so I would expect their combined win totals to drop overall from last season. But because the Bears do look better than 5, I would probably settle around 7 or 8.
GreenNGold
Footballguy
wow, way under. Please excuse me for a little while as I need to drive to the nearest sportsbook.
JoeKappBudGrant
Footballguy
I think the draft is deep through pick 55 or so. The Bears should trade down twice for extra second round picks. I think Ben will try to trade down. I like the Bears for 10 wins in 2025/
That one is simple. I like talking football before the draft.
For sure, this will all adjust from now until Week1.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Tough number. It’s a brutal division.
I said “just right” but the under is my nagging intuition.
They seem competently managed, and have a lot of talent. If their QB takes a step forward, 9+ wins is their upside. But a lot has to go right. And again, NFC-N is brutal.
I said “just right” but the under is my nagging intuition.
They seem competently managed, and have a lot of talent. If their QB takes a step forward, 9+ wins is their upside. But a lot has to go right. And again, NFC-N is brutal.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Changed my vote to Under. Just looked at the schedule. Eh.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I dunno - GB is a very good team that didn’t play to their potential last year. Lot of injuries, some holes they can likely fill in the draft.
I’m bullish on GB being better this year than last.
I think they have more holes than any other team in the division. Holes on every level of the defense (especially CB if Alexander isn't back) and a massive WR need. I like Matt LaFleur, but I think this is pretty easily the least talented team in the NFC North.
ETA: That's not me saying Green Bay sucks or anything like that, this is the best division in the NFL in my opinion.
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Ruffrodys05
IBL Representative
Just kind of skimming over in my mind all the current moving parts still in play that I can think of right now, some being mentioned already,.......my gut says no more than 7 wins, maybe less, for the Bears in '25.
Baby steps
Baby steps 
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Chicago lost 7 one score games last year. I expect them, with better coaching (assumption here that Johnson is better) to win a few more of those close games. I also expect some teams, like Minnesota, who is running a rookie QB out there as their #1 to have some growing pains and maybe take a step or two back (I'd be surprised if MIN wins 11 games next year).
I'd say 8.5 is a pretty good number for them. I'd probably go over here.
rockaction
Footballguy
I think you’re forgetting QB play here and how Jordan Love was banged up or hurt most of last year from what I could tell. He will adjust to the DCs adjusting to him and be better than he was last year, which was still okay, although it wasn’t quite the barn burner performance everyone expected.
Caleb Williams was nowhere near Love last year, and Chicago better hope that sacks aren’t really a QB stat and that they can be coached out of him because if they are a QB stat and it can’t be coached out of him, Chicago is in real trouble.
Packers are also great in the running game, have a good offensive line, and they will likely draft a receiver or hope for development from the younger guys they already have (they have a bunch of WR2s).
So I’m not sure that they’re the least talented team (on offense, anyway) and they’re probably better than Chicago, just like last year.
Caleb wasn't as good as Love last year, I agree with that. I also think the Bears wouldn't trade QBs, and I don't know if many would disagree. If I'm giving QB to Green Bay, its by a slight margin.
I think the Bears OL is much better than Green Bay's. The Bears arguably have a top 3 OL in the NFL right now. I'd also disagree the Packers have a bunch of WR2s. They have a bunch of WR3s, 2 of whom are gigantic health question marks. Green Bay arguably needs 2 starting WRs. The Bears had 3 guys last year, better than any of them. Along those lines, GB would be wise to maybe sign a guy like Keenan Allen.
I'll 100% agree GB is better at RB. I've never liked Swift, and was annoyed they even signed him, especially when better RBs went cheaper. Bears are almost certainly not leaving the first 2 rounds without a RB, but its unlikely that guy will be as good as Jacobs, unless its Jeanty, and even that is a debate. While I'm not a big Kmet fan, he's probably better than Kraft.
The biggest reason Green Bay's offense has been better than Chicago's is Lafleur was better than the Bears OC clown show. With Ben Johnson on board, that advantage may be gone, or at the very least a LOT smaller.
rockaction
Footballguy
Most certainly not.
Total disagreement here. They have three WR2s in Reed, Doubs, and Wicks. Keenan Allen is washed and is almost totally so.
After free agency it potentially is. I don't think I'm going to argue too strenuously about it.
Williams has done nothing but get sacked a lot. A good game or two, one against the Redskins, but not much else. Jordan Love torched the Cowboys in the playoffs and took San Francisco to the limit. Last year was different and they ran into a buzzsaw while getting an atrocious fumble call against Philadelphia, who handled them fairly easily, but that's not a knock on Green Bay because Philly handled everybody easily but the Rams.
Regardless, Love has done it and done it superbly on a huge stage (in Dallas in the playoffs) and I'm pretty sure we didn't see his best last year and that it was an injury/adjustment year. Like I always say, I can't watch a quarterback and tell you why or how he's good, I only know results. That makes me bad at analyzing and predicting, but I'd have Love a ways ahead of Williams until Williams proves something.
GreenNGold
Footballguy
Every offseason you can tell when we have gone too long without meaningful football -- when people start acting like the bears might be good.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
How many games would you say the Bears lost due to poor coaching? I don't think it's a coincidence that Detroit went from a 3 win team to a 9 win team once Johnson took over as the OC. Detroit went from 25th pts, 22nd yards on offense to 5th points, 4th yards (don't think they added any major offensive weapons either). Chicago was 28th pts, 32 yards on offense last season. They have the potential to make a major jump in scoring this season simply from having a brilliant offensive mind running the show.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Was pretty much going to post exactly this stat. I was suprised the O/U was 8.5, I really would have had it pegged at 7.5 based on their schedule. But I'll still take the over just from shedding the coach losses from last year (I won't put all 7 on Eberflus, but he legit gave away at least 3 of those that I can remember with poor play calling/clock management) and I think Caleb takes a step up as well.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The Bears actually were worse with Brown than they were with Eberflus. Maybe Johnson will buck the trend of rookie head coaches over the past 10 years. IIRC, the average rookie HC averaged between 6-7 wins. CHI won 3 one scores games to go along with their 7 one score losses. If they went .500 in those games, that would have pushed their win total from 5 to 7. Will have to see how they draft and fill out the roster between now and September.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Eberflush was 5-19 in one score games in his time with the Bears. The worst record of any coach in NFL history who coached at least 20 games. I don't view those 3 one score game wins as "wins" as much as 3 one score games the team didn't allow him to lose lol. He's also the only Bears coach in the history of the organization to never beat the Packers. But I get your point. The line feels like Vegas got it right. I'll still take the over, but wish it was 7.5 because then I'd actually put money on it.
