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I think in a 14 tm legue, the #6 QB is very average, unless there is a huge drop between him and the rest of the field. As for your wr's, I think your wr1 is average, your wr 2 is aveage, your wr3 is good and your wr 4 will likely be right about average, giving you a slightly better than average wr corps.
The difference is- if you have no injuries- your QB2 mnay only start 1 game, your rb3 only 2. Your wr5 will start at least 3 and likely 4 games.
I probably did undervalue coles a bit because he is a very solid WR in PPR leagues. You have more faith in that rookie trio than I do - Williamson could earn solid playing time right away if he continues to impress, but i am skeptical - Williams will be a marginal fantasy WR unless rogers gets hurt - Jones I think is way too raw to contribute much beyond plays designed especially for him. Chambers is also a decent breakout candidate if the fins can get some decent QB play. I was too harsh - your top 3 is above average, but i am skeptical about your 4-5-6.
What gonzo did last year was last year. Without Priest they throw more to him. The difference between Gonzo and TE14 may or may not be bigger than the difference between QB1 and QB 14. Last year there was a huge drop off after the top 2, and in fact there was a mamouth drop off from QB 1 to QB5.
True. I guess that I think that the point differential from WR4 to WR5 is alot less than from QB1 to QB2 and RB2 to RB3. In otherwords, I would think that weak backups at QB and RB are more likely to cause you to lose a game.
Maybe I'm blinded by recent rookie WR success (M.Clayton, Roy Williams A.Boldin, L.Fitz, etc.)..but I like the group of rookie WRs this year allot. If you go by Footballguys rankings.....Mike Williams is ranked 42nd & Williamson is 49th. That would make them both #4WR's in a league that starts 56. So, I don't think it's too much of a venture to say that one of them might crack the top 40 and give me #3WR type production.
I agree. If Jimmy Smith gets injured then you might suddenly have a top 20 WR in Jones. I like the value where you got MJ. That said, I still don't think this is a good rookie WR crop if you're looking for immediate impact. The only guy who seems to have a clear path to the WR1 role on his team is Braylon Edwards, but the situation in Cleveland is ugly and Edwards has consistency issues that he needs to iron out. I certainly can't fault you for gambling on talent. I actually recommend that over taking proven scrubs in most cases. At the same time, I'm not optimistic about this group of rookie WRs. I think there are three upper echelon talents in this rookie WR crop: Braylon Edwards, Mike Williams, and Chris Henry. Of those three, only Williams and Henry strike me as having the skill set necessary to succeed immediately (they're the most polished). Unfortunately, neither guy appears to be in a position to get a lot of targets right away. As a result, I plan to avoid this year's rookie WRs unless I can get them for dirt cheap. I was planning to take Henry in the 15th or 16th round of this league, but Team Legacy beat me to the punch.
OK, bloom---first I have to say I appreciate when someone takes the time to go over such a large draft and comment on every team....I do have to ask:How far apart do you have Hasselbeck and Brady?
while I don't see my squad as the favorite by any means, I don't think Brady, Westbrook,Moss, Jackson, JSmith,Glenn, Clark "have me in trouble"Edwards isnt practicing with the first team. You also left out the most polished WR in the 2005 draft - Mark Clayton - he was practicing with the first team and impressive in minicamp between hammy injuries. the baltimore offense will hold him back from being a major force, but i could see him having a lee evans-like impact.
I didn't forget about Clayton. I just don't think he has much upside. He strikes me as a career #2 and Baltimore has a suspect passing offense. The bottom line for me is that Clayton is the third best receiving option in a weak aerial attack. I don't see big numbers in his immediate future. As for the Lee Evans comparison, I don't think it holds up. Evans is like Mark Clayton on steroids.
I should've drafted Taylor Jacobs instead of Mark Bradley. It also might have been wise to draft Hines Ward instead of Daunte Culpepper, but I can't say I really regret taking C-Pep. My championship teams have always had good QBs and I saw a big dropoff in QB after the first few.
I should have drafted Carr instead of Boston in the 11th...Carr is a more solid backup to Brees than is Warner. Having Warner as my backup presents some risk if Brees goes down and if Garcia doesn't takeover in Detroit. Boston probably would have been there for me on the comeback. Also, I may regret drafting Hakim over McCown, but I figure if both Warner and Brees go down...and Garcia doesn't win the job, I'm screwed anyhow.
can you say K-Rob ?? yes, I did it, but I thought at the time he would land a job elsewhere. Now I'm just not so sure...
Since I missed out on most of the premier WR, I didn't want to get stuck with a mediocre QB, as well. So I snagged Brooks. But with hindsight, I could have waited a round or two to pick up a QB. Besides taking a QB too early, I don't have regrets. Lots of good players that I coveted went just a couple of spots before me.
on brady and hasselbeck: I guess i saw them differently because the first thing i noticed about your team was that the RBs were staley and westbrook. I expected to see a QB, WR corps, or TE that would give you a strong advantage - and in that light I was disappointed to see only brady. Kleck has an RB combo of James/Green with Barlow in the wings and a very solid WR corps for only using 2 of his first 6 picks - in that light getting hasselbeck in the 9th seems to be a lack of serious weakness where there should be one, while I see Brady as lack of strength where there should be one. I know thats a kind of weird explanation but thats the best I can recounting what i was thinking when made those comments.Ill take Lewis over Westbrook in this format - Westbrook has Moats and a healthy CBuck to deal with more - definitely more of a threat to take touches than dorsey levens was last year. Westbrook also got 6 TDs through the air last year, which is the hardest stat to predict for RBs - 6 is a high number and unlikely to be repeated. Lewis is set up as the feature back in a rushing attack that will be complimented by a much improved WR corps - he could easily have another 1500+ season on the ground. Staley does nothing for me as he probably will only see the endzone a few times and is also injury prone - i dont see any scenario where his role expands from the 100-120 total yards a game guy he was last year. an adequate RB2 at best. Lewis, Jackson and Brown IS a really good trio for a 14 team league - harrier had to spend 3 of his first 4 picks to snag them, so you expect it to be good.OK, bloom---first I have to say I appreciate when someone takes the time to go over such a large draft and comment on every team....I do have to ask:How far apart do you have Hasselbeck and Brady?
Kleck and I choose these 2 back-to-back...Brady gets an "avg QB play", yet Hass "provides decent QB total, espically where he went"
who's higher...Westbrook or Jamal Lewis?
RB13(by FBG) Westbrook and RB28Staley are "below avg", but RB15 Lewis and RB22 SJackson are part of "a ridiculously good trio?"
Gates or Gonzo over DJax @3.6...
you make it sound like I left 100 points on the table....in hind sight, Gonzo and Plax(the WR taken right after my TE selection of Clark) do total ~ 20 more points than the DJax/Clark combo I took at 3 and 6, but IMO Jackson/Clark offer a bit more upside production wise than Gonzo/Plax--I just don't trust KC will throw to him as often, and I'm not high on Plax at all--Colbert was the next WR taken, pushing the available WR's in this area in the late 30's
my WR's 1-5 are ranked 1-9-22-38-48 by Joe and David, forcing the baseline down to at least WR55, and my 1st alternate is 7 spots above the baseline. This position accounts for 4 of 8 starters...I'll put this group up over any other, 1-5
my TE is ranked 6, putting me well ahead of the curve for 5 of the 8 starting positions.
decent RB1 in Westy, I need Staley to play the whole year, or it's a crap shoot in the RB2 spot w/Pittman-CTaylor-MBarberIII....this is obviously the area of most concern
Brady is steady in his production, which was all I was looking for in the 9th round, as opposed to the highs and lows I think Hass will go thru w/his WR corps...after Jackson, it is JJur, Engram and a bunch of young guys compared to Branch, Givens, Terrell and Troy Brown in NE
Pepper in the late 2nd is still solid value - his rushing stats ensure that even if his passing numbers come back to earth, he'll be a top 5 QB. you got caddy in the 3rd, who i would compare favorably to jordan and bell, and i dont think pepper makes it to the 3.04. you did the right thing.
not necessarily comparing them as players, comparing their fantasy impact as rookies. Buffalo was a terrible passing offense last year (27th) and Evans was still a marginal fantasy factor. I think Clayton can get close to the same numbers in baltimore's weak passing offense, Heap or no Heap - he and boller are living together... theyll be on the same page.
That is definitely understandable. Going with my 3rd RB, with good WR value left in the 5th round, of a start 4 WR league was a risk. It's nothing new in my drafting style though. In a start 2 RB league I always consider my #3 RB equally as important as a starter because of the amount of uncertainties surrounding RB's. With Barlow falling further than I thought he should, and not many start worthy RB's left on the board, the pick was a no brainer for me. I could have gotten Suggs a round later, but than I would have missed out on McMichael. I had a huge drop in my TE rankings after him and Clark, and knew there wouldn't be a chance for me to get them in the 7th, and I really wanted a solid top 5-10 TE in this format. I'll also agree on my WR's. I'm very happy with what I got in value, but as a group I don't see them as one of the best. I do like my combination of WR's on the bench and hopefully my depth there can come through and make up for any loss.Thanks for the feedback, much appreciated.
thanx a million for taking the time, Bloom! I appreciate the well thought out presentation, even if I don't "see it the same way"mrharrier and all are all sporting wood over Jamal Lewis--and NO ONE appreciates the job Jamal Lewis did/does for the Ravens more than I---but I'm here to tell you guys that RB15 is best case senario for this guy this yearon brady and hasselbeck: I guess i saw them differently because the first thing i noticed about your team was that the RBs were staley and westbrook. I expected to see a QB, WR corps, or TE that would give you a strong advantage - and in that light I was disappointed to see only brady. Kleck has an RB combo of James/Green with Barlow in the wings and a very solid WR corps for only using 2 of his first 6 picks - in that light getting hasselbeck in the 9th seems to be a lack of serious weakness where there should be one, while I see Brady as lack of strength where there should be one. I know thats a kind of weird explanation but thats the best I can recounting what i was thinking when made those comments.Ill take Lewis over Westbrook in this format - Westbrook has Moats and a healthy CBuck to deal with more - definitely more of a threat to take touches than dorsey levens was last year. Westbrook also got 6 TDs through the air last year, which is the hardest stat to predict for RBs - 6 is a high number and unlikely to be repeated. Lewis is set up as the feature back in a rushing attack that will be complimented by a much improved WR corps - he could easily have another 1500+ season on the ground. Staley does nothing for me as he probably will only see the endzone a few times and is also injury prone - i dont see any scenario where his role expands from the 100-120 total yards a game guy he was last year. an adequate RB2 at best. Lewis, Jackson and Brown IS a really good trio for a 14 team league - harrier had to spend 3 of his first 4 picks to snag them, so you expect it to be good.OK, bloom---first I have to say I appreciate when someone takes the time to go over such a large draft and comment on every team....I do have to ask:How far apart do you have Hasselbeck and Brady?
Kleck and I choose these 2 back-to-back...Brady gets an "avg QB play", yet Hass "provides decent QB total, espically where he went"
who's higher...Westbrook or Jamal Lewis?
RB13(by FBG) Westbrook and RB28Staley are "below avg", but RB15 Lewis and RB22 SJackson are part of "a ridiculously good trio?"
Gates or Gonzo over DJax @3.6...
you make it sound like I left 100 points on the table....in hind sight, Gonzo and Plax(the WR taken right after my TE selection of Clark) do total ~ 20 more points than the DJax/Clark combo I took at 3 and 6, but IMO Jackson/Clark offer a bit more upside production wise than Gonzo/Plax--I just don't trust KC will throw to him as often, and I'm not high on Plax at all--Colbert was the next WR taken, pushing the available WR's in this area in the late 30's
my WR's 1-5 are ranked 1-9-22-38-48 by Joe and David, forcing the baseline down to at least WR55, and my 1st alternate is 7 spots above the baseline. This position accounts for 4 of 8 starters...I'll put this group up over any other, 1-5
my TE is ranked 6, putting me well ahead of the curve for 5 of the 8 starting positions.
decent RB1 in Westy, I need Staley to play the whole year, or it's a crap shoot in the RB2 spot w/Pittman-CTaylor-MBarberIII....this is obviously the area of most concern
Brady is steady in his production, which was all I was looking for in the 9th round, as opposed to the highs and lows I think Hass will go thru w/his WR corps...after Jackson, it is JJur, Engram and a bunch of young guys compared to Branch, Givens, Terrell and Troy Brown in NE
here are the WRs that were available at 4.09 that i expect to be close to Djax numbers:
bruce (4.11)
steve smith (4.10)
jimmy smith (5.06) - who you took, nice pick.
rod smith (6.06)
the problem is that you used your 3.06 to take a WR2, and djax doesnt really give you much of an edge over an average WR2. Gonzo and Gates were just sitting there - each giving you at least a solid advantage of 12 other teams in the league. Gonzo has finished as either the #1 or #2 TE every year since 1999... again i think everyone severely undervalued him.
Clark I am not impressed with a breakout candidate - the colts with manning at the helm have consistently split the targets for the TEs somewhere in the range of 50/50 - i dont see why manning would abandon this split when hartsock is a capable receiving TE - certainly comparable to a ken dilger.
I only see two players (moss and jimmy smith) that will give you a consistent advantage over your opponents counterparts - the ground you give up at RB is probably more than moss and smith gain for you WR1 and WR3.
Im sorry if i came off harsh, that was just the stream of consciousness - but my honest assessment is still that if you are trotting out westbrook and staley as your RB1 and RB2, you need a big advantage elsewhere to make up for it, and i dont think your squad has the potential to have big advantages at any of the other 3 positions.
) that one of the 4 I mentioned would get to me, as owners saw the WR pool start to thin quickly
early and often!
1) I would have gone with Jordan or Bell as my RB2 in the 2nd and then just taken whomever was left of Horn, Walker and A Johnson in the 3rd. Didn't think that one through. 2) I would have taken Fitzgerald over Crumpler as my WR3 in the 5th and then taken whomever was left of Crumpler, Heap, McMichael and Clark in the 6th.
Again- I just disagree. In my case, I have McNabb-- so my back-up QB barring injury will play 2 games in this double game format. I have a double bye week- so my wr 5 will play 6 games- many will play 8. I would agree that your theory would be sound if EVERYONE did neglect the wr5- but several teams did not. Just a rb4 becomse more valuable in a league where you start 3, or a QB3 is more important when you start 2- a 5th wr will be important. I think the field will be very even- and little differences- like wr5- will be magnified considerably. The wr5 will play between 1/3 and 1/4 of the games- even if no one was injured.
6.14 (Favre) - I felt there was going to be a huge QB run and Favre always puts up a bunch of TD's. He also puts up a ton of INT's....but this league doesn't penalize for turnovers. In hindsight....I probably would have been better off taking a WR (Stallworth) and went with Brady in round 9. Brady & Stallworth vs. Favre & Williamson.9.1 (Williamson) - I should have taken a vet like P.Price with less upside but a guarantee to be in the starting lineup.
The only major thing I would have changed if I could go back would be to wait a bit longer on QB. I really do like Green in this format, but I think I could have been better served to go after a WR. Could have started with: Wayne, Branch, and one of Lelie/Porter/Evans. I think that would have made my team much stronger on paper.
First, Quincy Morgan injures his shoulder last week (right after I draft him) and will miss most of training camp. Then yesterday, Holmgren announces that the Seattle WR2 job is Engram's to lose. Guano around my ankles . . .I do believe the champion of this league will not necessarily be the one that drafted the best team, but more the one who envisioned how the season will play out and will reap the benefits of that vision. For example, my vision has Priest Holmes getting injured somewhere along the way (a very reasonable gamble if you're projecting starting RBs who will go down) and Corey Dillon staying healthy. EBF's vision has Dillon getting injured somewhere along the way and Cobbs getting a shot at some of the yardage that's available. Everybody rolled the dice on some position battles and injury opportunities, and I believe the owners who projected these outcomes most effectively will prevail. We'll see whose crystal ball is working . . .
I'm a PSU alum, a big Engram fan and I drafted him as my 4th WR and even I don't believe that he will be the SEA WR2 for the whole season. He's a great slot/WR3. And my vision, Dave, has Priest and Chris Brown staying healthy and each running for 2000 yards and 25 TDs.I'm in denial . . .
First, Quincy Morgan injures his shoulder last week (right after I draft him) and will miss most of training camp. Then yesterday, Holmgren announces that the Seattle WR2 job is Engram's to lose.
Guano around my ankles . . .
I do believe the champion of this league will not necessarily be the one that drafted the best team, but more the one who envisioned how the season will play out and will reap the benefits of that vision. For example, my vision has Priest Holmes getting injured somewhere along the way (a very reasonable gamble if you're projecting starting RBs who will go down) and Corey Dillon staying healthy. EBF's vision has Dillon getting injured somewhere along the way and Cobbs getting a shot at some of the yardage that's available. Everybody rolled the dice on some position battles and injury opportunities, and I believe the owners who projected these outcomes most effectively will prevail. We'll see whose crystal ball is working . . .
That's funny, because I envision Ronnie Brown getting hooked on the chronic and Ricky Williams rushing for 2200 yards and 32 TD's.And my vision, Dave, has Priest and Chris Brown staying healthy and each running for 2000 yards and 25 TDs.
(2nd time today w/these thumbs)
...with the key words being "if" and "gamble"
He's my favorite, and Torry Holt's favorite, WR from that draft class.
