Effect Of Best Case Scenario On Trump's Reelection Chances? (1 Viewer)

[ren hoek]

Sorta....they wanted to see what would happen because he had ZERO meaningful political record.  They didn't like Hillary's track record and were willing to go with the unknown.  Now, they know what they'll get with him.  He doesn't have lack of evidence to help him anymore.  It's there for all to see.

Perhaps. Perception is more important than reality in politics.  Trump will muddy the waters, they will trash Biden on mental decline, they'll expose his record, they'll blow up the credible sexual assault allegations against him.  He will blame China and obfuscate his own failures in dealing with COVID-19.  It's working already.  He will talk about what a great job he's done, so much winning, how Do Nothing Democrats had nothing to offer voters but impeachment and Russia hoax. 

Then again, I'm pretty surprised by Biden's run.  It feels like Democrats have just trotted out the worst candidate I've ever seen.  I'm willing to chalk it up to Democrats having their brain melted by 2016, and having internalized bogus narratives about Biden being only one that can defeat Trump.  I think they're in for a rude awakening once Joe Biden has been put on blast for 7 months.  It's a huge IF but if the pandemic appears to be clearing up and economy is back on track it's over.  

 

[Insomniac]

And to be clear, I'm not saying Trump will or won't make any of that happen. 

I'm just asking if it DID happen, how it might affect his chances. 

How many deaths from covid-19 is in your best case scenarion? Last week I saw the 100-240K scenario. I saw one today in the WaPo with 60K by August 1.

"The IHME’s estimate of 60,000 deaths takes us only to August and excludes any potential deaths that might occur in the fall and winter if the virus continues to spread without effective treatments or a vaccine."

Even if the DOW gets to 90%  of it's high, it seems very unlikely that unemployment will be at or below 5% by August 1. (or November 1st) Are we gonna end the "stay at home" edicts in most of the US May 1?  Are we going to remove the travel bans? Open bars and restuarants?   If we do, will people fly or go out to eat/drink at the same level as they did in February? Will they be able to afford to?   IMO 60K dead people by 8/1 will outweigh the realistic economic best case for Trump's chances. 

 

[The Commish]

Perhaps. Perception is more important than reality in politics.  Trump will muddy the waters, they will trash Biden on mental decline, they'll expose his record, they'll blow up the credible sexual assault allegations against him.  He will blame China and obfuscate his own failures in dealing with COVID-19.  It's working already.  He will talk about what a great job he's done, so much winning, how Do Nothing Democrats had nothing to offer voters but impeachment and Russia hoax. 

Then again, I'm pretty surprised by Biden's run.  It feels like Democrats have just trotted out the worst candidate I've ever seen.  I'm willing to chalk it up to Democrats having their brain melted by 2016, and having internalized bogus narratives about Biden being only one that can defeat Trump.  I think they're in for a rude awakening once Joe Biden has been put on blast for 7 months.  It's a huge IF but if the pandemic appears to be clearing up and economy is back on track it's over.  

I'm pretty confident that the pandemic is going to be front and center through August into September...probably October.  It will be all people are talking about.  I couldn't tell you what the recent "issues" with Biden have been.  Couldn't tell you.  I'm not interested in the Presidential race at the moment.  The talking points work well for those voting for the sides but none of them are focused on the "undecided".  That number is the smallest it's ever been.  Last I saw, over 80% of the country had their mind made up on whether they liked Trump or not.  That's a big number and the consistency in approval numbers seems to support that.  Trump supporters/detractors care about the spin around China and they are the ones who care about assigning blame in this pandemic response.  Everyone else is focused on themselves and their families and that's not going to change no matter who's in the White House.  You take care of them and do right by them, they'll support you, otherwise they are voting the other guy.  People seem to forget the margin of victory for Trump and that was with 38-40% of the electorate behind him.  Now he has 35ish% of the electorate firmly behind him and has done ZERO to reach out to anyone but the base.  This has always been Trump's to lose as the incumbent and he can't get out of his own way.