Electric Cars (Tesla and Others) (3 Viewers)

[Terminalxylem]

I don't get how 3 is true. 

Technically 2 under my name, and a third under a friend's name on my behalf.

 

[Terminalxylem]

I'm not sure how this would fit into the timeline that you mentioned--but didn't Tesla start talking deposits on Model 3's in 2016?  My guess is that some people that put really early deposits on the more affordable models probably thought they would be eligible the larger tax credit.  With that said--that's just pure speculation on my part.  

This is correct. And it was not possible to get the full credit on the base where I live, perhaps anywhere unless you are a Tesla/SpaceX employee.

 

[culdeus]

Technically 2 under my name, and a third under a friend's name on my behalf.

Item 3 on your list. As others point out your timeline is fishy and either misinformed or just trolling.  

 

[Terminalxylem]

Item 3 on your list. As others point out your timeline is fishy and either misinformed or just trolling.  

Huh? I have no beef with you, please let’s not carry over irritation from the other thread - a response to my reply would be appreciated over there, however.

To recap:

1. I reserved 3 model 3’s at the outset, at the first available opportunity, by waiting in line for two reservations no less. My friend reserved a third for me. As a current Tesla owner living on the West coast, he’d have higher priority than me, even though Tesla discourages reserving cars for others.

2. Tesla made several promises about the features on the base car, and the availability of the bare bones $35K model, which they revised over time.

3. When I actually could have purchased a base model without unwanted options and some features I wanted that they effectively made options (auto pilot), there was roughly one week to decide at $3750 rebate level - I never had the luxury of a $7500 rebate on the base model.

Effectively, they pulled a bit of a bait-and-switch by asking I reserve $35K Tesla years in advance, sight unseen. In reality, no such car ever existed.

Why would I troll this topic?

 

[Terminalxylem]

Item 3 on your list. As others point out your timeline is fishy and either misinformed or just trolling.  

Oh, my mistake. Yeah, it was a one week rush to qualify for the $3750, not $7500 rebate. Which is even worse given the implicit promise of an “affordable Tesla” during the original sign up period.

Still don’t know why people are so quick to jump on the troll accusations. 

 

[culdeus]

Oh, my mistake. Yeah, it was a one week rush to qualify for the $3750, not $7500 rebate. Which is even worse given the implicit promise of an “affordable Tesla” during the original sign up period.

Still don’t know why people are so quick to jump on the troll accusations. 

The way you overwhem personal narrative with stuff that is provable as bull#### is a great skill.  I will give you that.  

Fact is item 3 on your initial hit list is complete bull####. Maybe you felt entitled to a Sr under the 7500 tax write-off but they never promised that.  To anyone. 

 

[Terminalxylem]

The way you overwhem personal narrative with stuff that is provable as bull#### is a great skill.  I will give you that.  

Fact is item 3 on your initial hit list is complete bull####. Maybe you felt entitled to a Sr under the 7500 tax write-off but they never promised that.  To anyone. 

No, it was an honest mistake. Really. Sorry you want to remain hostile because I called some of your nutrition beliefs into question.

Help me understand what potential motivation one could have in falsifying the dollar value of a rebate they never received?

 

[Dragons]

FTR, the $3750 tax credit is still available.

 

[Terminalxylem]

FTR, the $3750 tax credit is still available.

Yeah, but they increased the $35K base price.

 

[Dragons]

Yeah, but they increased the $35K base price.

They did not.

https://www.tesla.com/model3/design#payment

 

[Dragons]

No, it was an honest mistake. Really. Sorry you want to remain hostile because I called some of your nutrition beliefs into question.

Help me understand what potential motivation one could have in falsifying the dollar value of a rebate they never received?

To be completely honest, I am having trouble understanding pretty much every point you're making. Autopilot hardware was never promised for free. The $35k car is still available. The $3750 tax credit is still available. The only remaining verifiable point you made is that you couldn't get the SR with the $7500 tax credit. Lots of people were disappointed with this, I get it. But even this was known long ago, long before you presumably cancelled your order based on the other disingenuous statements.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

They did not.

https://www.tesla.com/model3/design#payment

I get that people that defend Tesla will do so at every possible moment--and deservingly so--their products are great.  However--how many $35k Tesla's do you think have been delivered already? Honest question. How many people put deposits on them back in 2016 with a proposed delivery date of 2017???  I guarantee you that the number of deposits that they had taken for proposed $35k vehicles is exponentially greater than the number of them they have delivered 3 years later.    You might be right--maybe they didn't raise the price--but let's not glaze over the fact that back in 2016--the model 3 was being marketed by Tesla as being the "affordable" Tesla that would be available to the masses at a $35-45k average price by 2017.   It's 3 years later and only now are there going to start being affordable model 3's available.  Until now--most of them have been in the $50-60k range. 

 

[Terminalxylem]

They did not.

https://www.tesla.com/model3/design#payment

I stand corrected. I got a text from the salesman talking about price hikes and urgency to complete my reservation, but it appears those only applied to the other models.

My basic point remains however: The $35K base model, well equipped with features including (functioning) autopilot, was delayed in production such that the premise of an "affordable" Tesla was a bit misleading IMO.

While it's obvious it makes financial sense (at least in the short term), is there any reason production/release of base Model 3's couldn't have happened from the get go? One can imagine a scenario where more total customers purchase base 3s with better rebate than being forced to wait as performance, extended range, etc. versions were sequentially sold when the $7500 was available? Even if they lose $ on the cheapest model, it's possible they'd attract enough customers who'd eventually step up to more expensive offerings their next Tesla. 

 

[Dragons]

I get that people that defend Tesla will do so at every possible moment--and deservingly so--their products are great.  However--how many $35k Tesla's do you think have been delivered already? Honest question. How many people put deposits on them back in 2016 with a proposed delivery date of 2017???  I guarantee you that the number of deposits that they had taken for proposed $35k vehicles is exponentially greater than the number of them they have delivered 3 years later.    You might be right--maybe they didn't raise the price--but let's not glaze over the fact that back in 2016--the model 3 was being marketed by Tesla as being the "affordable" Tesla that would be available to the masses at a $35-45k average price by 2017.   It's 3 years later and only now are there going to start being affordable model 3's available.  Until now--most of them have been in the $50-60k range. 

Every person who put down a deposit at the time of the Model 3 announcement, did so under the understanding that production would NOT START until 2018. It was only after Tesla received 400,000 deposits that they tried to ramp up the production schedule (and failed).

I've already answered the question about SR deliveries. I don't believe they have delivered any SRs by the end of the quarter. They appeared to focus on the SR+ orders they received.

All these complaints are based on complete revisionist history.

 

[Dragons]

I stand corrected. I got a text from the salesman talking about price hikes and urgency to complete my reservation, but it appears those only applied to the other models.

My basic premise remains however: The $35K base model, well equipped with features including (functioning) autopilot, was delayed in production such that the premise of an "affordable" Tesla was a bit misleading IMO.

While it's obvious it makes financial sense (at least in the short term), is there any reason production/release of base Model 3's couldn't have happened from the get go? One can imagine a scenario where more total customers purchase base 3s with better rebate than being forced to wait as performance, extended range, etc. versions were sequentially sold when the $7500 was available? Even if they lose $ on the cheapest model, it's possible they'd attract enough customers who'd eventually step up to more expensive offerings their next Tesla. 

Yes, there is a very specific reason. One that Elon Musk himself stated, they needed the company to stay solvent. They could not afford to sell the 35K version any earlier without losing money and thus going out of business.

 

[Terminalxylem]

To be completely honest, I am having trouble understanding pretty much every point you're making. Autopilot hardware was never promised for free. The $35k car is still available. The $3750 tax credit is still available. The only remaining verifiable point you made is that you couldn't get the SR with the $7500 tax credit. Lots of people were disappointed with this, I get it. But even this was known long ago, long before you presumably cancelled your order based on the other disingenuous statements.

Autopilot was promised as standard equipment on every Tesla 3 IIRC...generally standard equipment doesn't entail a multi-thousand dollar activation fee, does it?

The delay in releasing the base model until after the $7500 expired is part of my gripe...I know it wasn't promised, but Tesla's original production estimates made many think it was a realistic possibility.

And I just cancelled my order today, inspired by this thread. 

 

[Dragons]

Autopilot was promised as standard equipment on every Tesla 3 IIRC...generally standard equipment doesn't entail a multi-thousand dollar activation fee, does it?

The delay in releasing the base model until after the $7500 expired is part of my gripe...I know it wasn't promised, but Tesla's original production estimates made many think it was a realistic possibility.

And I just cancelled my order today, inspired by this thread. 

Link please?

They stated that autopilot hardware would be built into every car, but there has always been a price to activate it. One price at time of order, a higher price after delivery. Even for the more expensive Model S and Model X.

Cancelled yesterday, you mean.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Every person who put down a deposit at the time of the Model 3 announcement, did so under the understanding that production would NOT START until 2018. It was only after Tesla received 400,000 deposits that they tried to ramp up the production schedule (and failed).

I've already answered the question about SR deliveries. I don't believe they have delivered any SRs by the end of the quarter. They appeared to focus on the SR+ orders they received.

All these complaints are based on complete revisionist history.

I know about the failure of production ramping up - am I not allowed to be irritated by that, especially since it may have cause me to miss out on the max rebate?

So basically, you think it was an unreasonable expectation in March 2016 to get the base vehicle with functioning autopilot and max rebate for less than $35K? In retrospect, of course that is absurd, but I don't think I was the only one depositing money thinking that's what would happen.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Link please?

They stated that autopilot hardware would be built into every car, but there has always been a price to activate it. One price at time of order, a higher price after delivery. Even for the more expensive Model S and Model X.

All I had was the video they released the evening of the reservation. It didn't include specifics about autopilot like you describe. Maybe I should have researched that specific topic, but honestly didn't even know to ask the question. Are all cars with auto-driving features sold with a similar understanding?

 

[Terminalxylem]

Yes, there is a very specific reason. One that Elon Musk himself stated, they needed the company to stay solvent. They could not afford to sell the 35K version any earlier without losing money and thus going out of business.

That's good to know, and probably would have been useful knowledge for prospective buyers at the time of reservation.

 

[Terminalxylem]

I get that people that defend Tesla will do so at every possible moment--and deservingly so--their products are great.  However--how many $35k Tesla's do you think have been delivered already? Honest question. How many people put deposits on them back in 2016 with a proposed delivery date of 2017???  I guarantee you that the number of deposits that they had taken for proposed $35k vehicles is exponentially greater than the number of them they have delivered 3 years later.    You might be right--maybe they didn't raise the price--but let's not glaze over the fact that back in 2016--the model 3 was being marketed by Tesla as being the "affordable" Tesla that would be available to the masses at a $35-45k average price by 2017.   It's 3 years later and only now are there going to start being affordable model 3's available.  Until now--most of them have been in the $50-60k range. 

Jesus. Thank you. I was starting to feel like I was crazy. And stupid.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Every person who put down a deposit at the time of the Model 3 announcement, did so under the understanding that production would NOT START until 2018. It was only after Tesla received 400,000 deposits that they tried to ramp up the production schedule (and failed).

I've already answered the question about SR deliveries. I don't believe they have delivered any SRs by the end of the quarter. They appeared to focus on the SR+ orders they received.

All these complaints are based on complete revisionist history.

Since you guys are such sticklers for details. From my original reservation email: 

Thank You

Your reservation is confirmed

Model 3 production is scheduled to begin in late 2017. North American deliveries will be first, followed by Europe, Asia and Pacific countries then countries with right-hand drive configurations. Those who own Model S or Model X cars will be offered priority production slots as a special thanks for supporting the Tesla mission.

 

[Dragons]

Since you guys are such sticklers for details. From my original reservation email: 

I stand corrected, they did say late 2017 (effectively 2018, but not stated as 2018). But, note that you were not given a promised "delivery date" of late 2017, as jvedesigns is stating.

 

[Terminalxylem]

I stand corrected, they did say late 2017 (effectively 2018, but not stated as 2018). But, note that you were not given a promised "delivery date" of late 2017, as jvedesigns is stating.

Great. So we can agree people can make simple mistakes with numbers that aren't tantamount to trolling. 

You've clarified my understanding quite a bit. Thanks.

 

[Dragons]

Great. So we can agree people can make simple mistakes with numbers that aren't tantamount to trolling. 

You've clarified my understanding quite a bit. Thanks.

I didn't say anything about trolling. From the beginning, I was simply trying to correct the record with facts and I stated agreement all along that it was a disappointment that the $35k version did not come out in time for the full tax credit.

I thought about putting a deposit down in 2016, but I didn't understand how the tax credit worked and assumed that I would not be able to get it. Since that time, I read up on the tax credit phase out and started following the company. To put it simply, they have struggled tremendously with the Model 3 manufacturing ramp. Their unsuccessful attempt to speed up the timeline burned a lot of cash and put them in a precarious financial situation.

I don't believe the late SR arrival was malicious or deceitful in any way, I truly believe Tesla wanted to offer the $35k version in time for the full tax credit if they could. That they released it in the first half of this year surprised a lot of people (my guess is that they're barely breaking even on the $35k version), but I also believe that this was intentionally done early in order to give everyone a shot at the $3750 before it expires on June 30th.

 

[dkp993]

I didn't say anything about trolling. From the beginning, I was simply trying to correct the record with facts and I stated agreement all along that it was a disappointment that the $35k version did not come out in time for the full tax credit.

I thought about putting a deposit down in 2016, but I didn't understand how the tax credit worked and assumed that I would not be able to get it. Since that time, I read up on the tax credit phase out and started following the company. To put it simply, they have struggled tremendously with the Model 3 manufacturing ramp. Their unsuccessful attempt to speed up the timeline burned a lot of cash and put them in a precarious financial situation.

I don't believe the late SR arrival was malicious or deceitful in any way, I truly believe Tesla wanted to offer the $35k version if they could. That they released it in the first half of this year surprised a lot of people (my guess is that they're barely breaking even on the $35k version), but I also believe that this was intentionally done early in order to give everyone a shot at the $3750 before it expires on June 30th.

Good post.  Last I read about the Model 3 profitability was a few months ago and they were still upside down a few grand at 35k, no idea where they stand today at that price point but based on what I know I fullly agree with the bolded.  

And as a side note, anyone who has spent 1 minute paying attention to Tesla should know the deadlines are always super agreesive and always missed, it’s actually a running joke at this point.  

I’ve said it many times here in this thread, there is a reason there is only a handful of successful large scale automotive manufacturers in history, it’s a nearly impossible task.   What Elon has done, warts and all, is mind blowing.  

 

[Terminalxylem]

I didn't say anything about trolling. From the beginning, I was simply trying to correct the record with facts and I stated agreement all along that it was a disappointment that the $35k version did not come out in time for the full tax credit.

I thought about putting a deposit down in 2016, but I didn't understand how the tax credit worked and assumed that I would not be able to get it. Since that time, I read up on the tax credit phase out and started following the company. To put it simply, they have struggled tremendously with the Model 3 manufacturing ramp. Their unsuccessful attempt to speed up the timeline burned a lot of cash and put them in a precarious financial situation.

I don't believe the late SR arrival was malicious or deceitful in any way, I truly believe Tesla wanted to offer the $35k version in time for the full tax credit if they could. That they released it in the first half of this year surprised a lot of people (my guess is that they're barely breaking even on the $35k version), but I also believe that this was intentionally done early in order to give everyone a shot at the $3750 before it expires on June 30th.

Sorry the troll comment was directed at other posters, quick to unleash the t word and other invective. You’ve been courteous and helpful.

I think Tesla is a great company who makes great vehicles. But they’re far from perfect, and I still believe the model 3 marketing campaign was a bit deceitful. Maybe I shouldn’t have such lofty expectations for car salesmen.

 

[Nugget]

Sorry the troll comment was directed at other posters, quick to unleash the t word and other invective. You’ve been courteous and helpful.

I think Tesla is a great company who makes great vehicles. But they’re far from perfect, and I still believe the model 3 marketing campaign was a bit deceitful. Maybe I shouldn’t have such lofty expectations for car salesmen.

Don’t make the call on Tesla being a great company until you get your deposits back. 

I will put the over/under in days vs total points in the national championship game. 

Cars are way cooler than the company. 

 

[Terminalxylem]

Don’t make the call on Tesla being a great company until you get your deposits back. 

I will put the over/under in days vs total points in the national championship game. 

Cars are way cooler than the company. 

My friend that owns two Teslas (S and X) made a third reservation on my behalf, which he cancelled a couple months ago with no issue.

They did ask I choose one of three potential methods of refund, including crediting a debit card and direct payment to my bank account. As I try not to propagate those numbers as much as possible, I chose old fashioned rebate via check. The expected turnaround time is 4-8 weeks. That seems a little long, but I’ve already floated them a no-interest loan for 3 years, so what’s another 2 months?

 

[Nugget]

My friend that owns two Teslas (S and X) made a third reservation on my behalf, which he cancelled a couple months ago with no issue.

They did ask I choose one of three potential methods of refund, including crediting a debit card and direct payment to my bank account. As I try not to propagate those numbers as much as possible, I chose old fashioned rebate via check. The expected turnaround time is 4-8 weeks. That seems a little long, but I’ve already floated them a no-interest loan for 3 years, so what’s another 2 months?

My friend cancelled her reservation in the fall.  It worked after her third request and 11 weeks. 

 

[Terminalxylem]

My friend cancelled her reservation in the fall.  It worked after her third request and 11 weeks. 

Yikes

 

[James Daulton]

starting to see used 2015/16 model S's with pretty low mileage in the low and mid-$40's now. 

 

[BassNBrew]

I want to pull the trigger but I'm concerned they will go out of business or something will break and I'll have a $2000 towing bill and $4000 rental car bill waiting for an electrical connector to be replaced.

 

[Foosball God]

I want to pull the trigger but I'm concerned they will go out of business or something will break and I'll have a $2000 towing bill and $4000 rental car bill waiting for an electrical connector to be replaced.

I'm not too concerned about this.  I don't see them going completely out of business even if something catastrophic happens.  In addition with more and more manufacturers coming out with electric vehicles I feel like it will get easier and easier to get service even if Tesla went down.

 

[Jobber]

I want to pull the trigger but I'm concerned they will go out of business or something will break and I'll have a $2000 towing bill and $4000 rental car bill waiting for an electrical connector to be replaced.

I figure if they run into real finance trouble, one of the Big 3, Toyota, Nissan or someone scoops them up. And if that happens, their service likely will actually improve from there.

 

[Nugget]

They seem to change their pricing strategy weekly.  Elon can be the visionary - Tesla needs operational leadership. 

 

[Shoot_Me_Now]

Since FC is MIA I'm picking up the baton. From memory the last month and half look like this.

Late Feb - Tesla PR - $35k model is here! Deliveries in 2-4 weeks

Reality - it doesn't exist and Tesla tries to upsell any customers that ordered it. No deliveries were made. 

March

- price cuts

Model Y event. 90% of the presentation is about Tesla's history and other products. Final 10% is about the Model Y with good reason, it was just a slightly modified 3 with a third row in the trunk. Place your deposits now! This was such a flop not even extreme pumper Musk has mentioned how many orders they got. 

Next few days on twitter Musk spends more time talking about the Tesla "pickup truck" than the Y. 

- price cuts

Tesla announces its immediately closing all of their stores and going to an online order only business model. 

- price cuts

A few days later, after some stores have already closed, Tesla says just joking and reopens them. 

- price cuts

April

Q1 deliveries get released showing demand has fallen off a cliff even with the price cuts and giving free stuff away.

Panasonic says no thanks to expanding battery capacity and further investments at the gigafactory. Maybe because demand has fallen off a cliff?

Tesla scraps the $35k model 3 via online orders (it never existed). You can still order it in store as they'll just software limit the more expensive model (what? Sounds good on margins). A month after announcing they were going to online orders only, you can now only order the $35k model in store. Makes sense. 

Leasing! You can now lease a model 3 with crappy terms that doesn't allow you to buy the car after 36 months because we need those cars for our self driving taxi service! Elon trying to pump his stock valuation to lyft/uber. 

All that on top of finance/legal departures (plus other executives) and the board is cashing in their stock. 

When do the masses recognize the current business is doomed? I, like others, like the S and would have bought one years ago if I had 100k to burn. Currently, I wouldn't go anywhere near a Tesla car until this all plays out. 

 

[matttyl]

starting to see used 2015/16 model S's with pretty low mileage in the low and mid-$40's now. 

2014 Tesla S with 33k miles - $40k. 

Anything big change to 2015/16 models?

ETA - 2013 S with 43k miles for a shade under $30k. 

 

[BassNBrew]

Since FC is MIA I'm picking up the baton. From memory the last month and half look like this.

Late Feb - Tesla PR - $35k model is here! Deliveries in 2-4 weeks

Reality - it doesn't exist and Tesla tries to upsell any customers that ordered it. No deliveries were made. 

March

- price cuts

Model Y event. 90% of the presentation is about Tesla's history and other products. Final 10% is about the Model Y with good reason, it was just a slightly modified 3 with a third row in the trunk. Place your deposits now! This was such a flop not even extreme pumper Musk has mentioned how many orders they got. 

Next few days on twitter Musk spends more time talking about the Tesla "pickup truck" than the Y. 

- price cuts

Tesla announces its immediately closing all of their stores and going to an online order only business model. 

- price cuts

A few days later, after some stores have already closed, Tesla says just joking and reopens them. 

- price cuts

April

Q1 deliveries get released showing demand has fallen off a cliff even with the price cuts and giving free stuff away.

Panasonic says no thanks to expanding battery capacity and further investments at the gigafactory. Maybe because demand has fallen off a cliff?

Tesla scraps the $35k model 3 via online orders (it never existed). You can still order it in store as they'll just software limit the more expensive model (what? Sounds good on margins). A month after announcing they were going to online orders only, you can now only order the $35k model in store. Makes sense. 

Leasing! You can now lease a model 3 with crappy terms that doesn't allow you to buy the car after 36 months because we need those cars for our self driving taxi service! Elon trying to pump his stock valuation to lyft/uber. 

All that on top of finance/legal departures (plus other executives) and the board is cashing in their stock. 

When do the masses recognize the current business is doomed? I, like others, like the S and would have bought one years ago if I had 100k to burn. Currently, I wouldn't go anywhere near a Tesla car until this all plays out. 

So would I get better pricing at the store that what is showing online?

 

[Dragons]

So would I get better pricing at the store that what is showing online?

No, you can buy a different trim level at a lower cost.

 

[jb1020]

I don’t pretend to know much about the auto industry and sure I’d be upset the same car I just bought was considerably cheaper a week later, but the price changes don’t seem like a big deal to me.

You could go to your local Ford dealership and buy a 2019 F150 then go to the Ford dealer 5 miles away and that price is not going to be the same.  Then go a month later and the prices will change again.  

Why is it a big deal when Tesla does it?  People freak out and assume the company is going under or something.

 

[Shoot_Me_Now]

I don’t pretend to know much about the auto industry and sure I’d be upset the same car I just bought was considerably cheaper a week later, but the price changes don’t seem like a big deal to me.

You could go to your local Ford dealership and buy a 2019 F150 then go to the Ford dealer 5 miles away and that price is not going to be the same.  Then go a month later and the prices will change again.  

Why is it a big deal when Tesla does it?  People freak out and assume the company is going under or something.

Ford's (and other manufacturers) circumstances aren't the same as Tesla's.

Tesla has a crap balance sheet and can't afford to cut into their margins with price cuts. To be fair, they've always had a crap balance sheet but Elon has been able to go to the free markets and raise funds at the snap of a finger based on brand image and hyper growth forecasts. Issuing several price cuts and still having a steep QoQ decline in sales shows the growth story is over. They have exhausted their three year reservation list. Their brand image has also taken a huge hit which won't help matters going forward. They aren't going to be able to raise funds to pay the bills anymore so the business has to survive by itself and the signs aren't pointing that way. 

What do you get when you have a balance sheet problem, demand problem, brand image problem, margin problem, competition is finally here problem, tax incentive problem, and wide spread service problems? In Tesla's case,  an erratic CEO making erratic business decisions and having twitter meltdowns. Elon is attacking the WSJ and Bloomberg this weekend, amongst many other things in his 48 hour meltdown. 

Every alarm bell is ringing right now for them thus the constant pumps from Elon, board stock sales, and top executives leaving in droves. Now they have this autonomous event on the 22nd that's going to be a game changer per Elon. Does anyone actually believe that is true with everyone bailing ship? They'd be in for a huge payday but they can't leave fast enough. 

 

[Dragons]

Randeep, is that you?

https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/track?uri=urn%3Aaaid%3Ascds%3AUS%3A90654697-62a5-4780-8a1c-d93afba76cf8

 

[BobbyLayne]

At the Tesla Investor Autonomy Day event (demos ongoing rn), Tesla said feature complete for Level 5 autonomies driving with no geofence at the end of 2019. IOW, the full self-driving capability will be achieved by YE.

Somebody smarter than me can try explaining purely heuristics for driving policy versus end-to-end neural networks.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Level 5 means full self driving (FSD) with no inputs from the driver.

Tesla claims they will have all the features needed for that by the end of 2019, though we’re still a few years from ordinary Tesla owners signing on to be part of the robo-taxi revenue sharing model.

Timeline from the presentation:

2019 this year: Supervised feature complete FSD that can drive anywhere not geofenced (technically not level 5 although Elon said yes)

2020 Q2: Tesla feels confident about drivers not paying attention/sleeping while driving. Drivers still responsible.

2020 Q4: Hopefully regulatory approval in some jurisdictions for self-driving without driver. This is technically level 4/5.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Live streams & videos all over the internet today.

Good discussion & debate thread at TMC

 

[msommer]

Level 5 means full self driving (FSD) with no inputs from the driver.

Tesla claims they will have all the features needed for that by the end of 2019, though we’re still a few years from ordinary Tesla owners signing on to be part of the robo-taxi revenue sharing model.

Timeline from the presentation:

2019 this year: Supervised feature complete FSD that can drive anywhere not geofenced (technically not level 5 although Elon said yes)

2020 Q2: Tesla feels confident about drivers not paying attention/sleeping while driving. Drivers still responsible.

2020 Q4: Hopefully regulatory approval in some jurisdictions for self-driving without driver. This is technically level 4/5.

I think I'd wait a few years before I get into a fully autonomous vehicle. Possibly until they are the norm and not the exception

 

[matttyl]

Maybe not to green after all?

I'd be looking at one of these for being "green" as in costing less from my wallet, but it would be nice to know that they are "green" in terms of helping the environment.  Looks like it comes down really to the mining and building of the batteries themselves.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Ford Invests $500M In Rivian (BEV truck & SUV manufacturer)

Tesla Releases New Longer Range Model S and Model X with Drivetrain, Suspension upgrades & More

Component refresh - going to the same type of motor as the Model 3 which is more efficient, has faster charging, and longer range.

They also brought back standard range for the S/X. For the Long Range, now up to 370 miles (S) and 325 (X.) When they switch the battery cells from 18650 to 2170, that will push it well over 400.

Motor Trend just did a test yesterday where they drove from SF to LA on a single charge. They went 359 miles & had 41 miles left. So, rated range doesn’t mean RW range - the new EPA range is 370, and they got 400 using Nav on Autopilot.

Probably won’t see an interior refresh until Q3 (just guessing) & exterior refresh will be Q1 2020. When they updated the flagship Model S, they did it in multiple stages. First to P90D with the nosecone, then P90D with new front fascia, then P100D.

 

[jb1020]

Ford partnering with Rivian seems like huge news.  Now Rivian is backed by Amazon and Ford.