thatguy
Footballguy
I thought this would make for an interesting discussion. And it's about more than just Eli--I think this discussion brings into question the larger issue of what it is going to take for QB's in this passer friendly age to make the HOF. I think it's safe to say we'll see QB's from this age with stats that blow those of many current HOF QB's (guys like Elway) out of the water but don't sniff the Hall. Ultimately I think we can all agree that it comes down to one simple question: how did said player compare to his peers during his career? Was he considered elite during his time, and if so, for how long?
That said, let's take a look at Eli's resume thus far, and project what he is likely to add to it over the next 5 or so seasons.
Regular season numbers:
8 seasons
121 games
27579 passing yards
58.4% completion rate (this could hurt him, although is is hurt by his first 2 seasons--he has been above 60% for 4 seasons running)
7.0 YPA (but 7.9, 7.4, 8.4 the last 3 season's respectively)
185 TD's
129 INT's.
Eli is 31. Let's conservatively assume 5 more seasons at 4000 yards, 28 TD's, 16 INT's, and let's assume 61% completion rate and 8.0 YPA.
We'd be looking at 13 seasons
201 games
47579 yards
~60% completion rate
~ 7.4 YPA
325 TD's
209 INT's
Now, I'm being conservative with my 5 year window, and I also think being conservative with the 4000 yards and 28 TD's/season. So, let's up the numbers a tad, accounting for either more years, or better yearly rate stats. We'll keep his completion percentage and YPA the same
52,000 yards
350 TD's
225 INT's
Even now, I think, barring injury, those numbers are conservative. The question, then, is how will they stand up against his contemporaries. I think we can say for sure that Brees and Brady likely surpass those numbers. His brother basically already has surpassed them, but not by a ton... And I think we can all agree that if Peyton never plays another snap he's a surefire first ballof HOFer.
As for his other contemporaries. Rodgers is younger, but a ways behind Eli. Rivers is a little less than a season's worth of stats behind him in both TD's and yards. Big Ben is about 1000 yards and 20 TD's behind. Now, that said, both players have superior completion percentages (in the 63.5% range) and YPA (8.0), but as far as pure numbers, Eli is in the lead from that draft class.
In any case, with 5+ healthy and productive more seasons, Eli will have an extremely impressive regular season resume that is well in line with his contemporaries, some of which are are already considered surefire HOFers.
Now, let's take a look at his post-season resume:
He already has the 1 ring, and it came in one of the most memorable Super Bowl's of all time against the unbeatable 2008 Patriots. That win aside, after today's game, he is 6-3 in the postseason in his career with the following stats:
60.9& completions
1904 yards
14 TD's
8 INT's
~7.2 YPA
And this post-season is still going. IMO, if the Giants can win the Super Bowl this season, and Eli plays well, or even better, wins the Super Bowl MVP, and then finishes with regular season numbers comparable tot hose I posted, he has to be a lock for the HOF despite the fact that his rate stats aren't on par with the other elite QB's of his day.
What do you guys think?
That said, let's take a look at Eli's resume thus far, and project what he is likely to add to it over the next 5 or so seasons.
Regular season numbers:
8 seasons
121 games
27579 passing yards
58.4% completion rate (this could hurt him, although is is hurt by his first 2 seasons--he has been above 60% for 4 seasons running)
7.0 YPA (but 7.9, 7.4, 8.4 the last 3 season's respectively)
185 TD's
129 INT's.
Eli is 31. Let's conservatively assume 5 more seasons at 4000 yards, 28 TD's, 16 INT's, and let's assume 61% completion rate and 8.0 YPA.
We'd be looking at 13 seasons
201 games
47579 yards
~60% completion rate
~ 7.4 YPA
325 TD's
209 INT's
Now, I'm being conservative with my 5 year window, and I also think being conservative with the 4000 yards and 28 TD's/season. So, let's up the numbers a tad, accounting for either more years, or better yearly rate stats. We'll keep his completion percentage and YPA the same
52,000 yards
350 TD's
225 INT's
Even now, I think, barring injury, those numbers are conservative. The question, then, is how will they stand up against his contemporaries. I think we can say for sure that Brees and Brady likely surpass those numbers. His brother basically already has surpassed them, but not by a ton... And I think we can all agree that if Peyton never plays another snap he's a surefire first ballof HOFer.
As for his other contemporaries. Rodgers is younger, but a ways behind Eli. Rivers is a little less than a season's worth of stats behind him in both TD's and yards. Big Ben is about 1000 yards and 20 TD's behind. Now, that said, both players have superior completion percentages (in the 63.5% range) and YPA (8.0), but as far as pure numbers, Eli is in the lead from that draft class.
In any case, with 5+ healthy and productive more seasons, Eli will have an extremely impressive regular season resume that is well in line with his contemporaries, some of which are are already considered surefire HOFers.
Now, let's take a look at his post-season resume:
He already has the 1 ring, and it came in one of the most memorable Super Bowl's of all time against the unbeatable 2008 Patriots. That win aside, after today's game, he is 6-3 in the postseason in his career with the following stats:
60.9& completions
1904 yards
14 TD's
8 INT's
~7.2 YPA
And this post-season is still going. IMO, if the Giants can win the Super Bowl this season, and Eli plays well, or even better, wins the Super Bowl MVP, and then finishes with regular season numbers comparable tot hose I posted, he has to be a lock for the HOF despite the fact that his rate stats aren't on par with the other elite QB's of his day.
What do you guys think?