Evaluating kicker performance (1 Viewer)

[AB in DC]

The problem with accuracy percentage: No way to differentiate between short and long FGs

Kicker A makes 18 of 20 FGs (90%), Kicker B makes 21 of 24 FGS (87.5%). Is it possible that Kicker B is really more accurate? YES!

Suppose all of Kicker A's attempts are under 45 yards. He's good at the short distances, but the coach won't send him out for long FGs. Suppose Kicker B has the same 20 short attempts, but also has 4 attempts over 45 yards, making 19-of-20 at short distances and making 2-of-4 at long distance. He's got better accuracy than Kicker A at the same FGs, and his strong leg earns him the opportunity to kick longer FGs. But guess what -- the extra kicks only drag down his accuracy percentage. Kicker B is clearly the better kicker, but you wouldn't know it from percentages; you need a deeper look.

The solution: Attempts-Adjusted Accuracy, or AAA

By adjusting for the extra attempts that good kickers get to make -- and the automatic misses that never show up in bad kickers' stats -- you get a better picture of a kicker's actual talent.

Using five years of kicking stats on Footballguys.com player pages, I've calculated AAA rating for thirty kickers who may on the field this year. It takes a kickers accuracy under 40 yards -- kicks that every kicker should be expected to make -- but adjusts the accuracy over 40 yards based on the relative number of attempts at that distance. The AAA rating then takes the weighted average of the under-40 and over-40 numbers using a two-to-one ratio.

Results are below. These are not fantasy rankings - but as a skill rating, they will help you develop your own rankings.

AAA..Kicker

83.3 Elam

82.3 Nedney

81.9 Akers

81.6 Kasay

81.5 Hanson

81.5 Kaeding

80.7 Vanderjagt

79.8 JBrown

79.7 Janikowski

79.2 Stover

79.2 Wilkins

77.6 Rackers

77.5 Edinger

77.5 Graham

77.1 Nugent

76.5 Bironas

74.6 *Vinatieri

74.3 *Reed

74.0 Carney

73.9 *Longwell

73.3 Cundiff

73.3 Tynes

72.0 KBrown

71.3 Mare

70.3 Feely

70.2 *Dawson

68.0 Bryant

67.7 *Lindell (in Buffalo)

67.6 Gramatica

67.5 Peterson

(* One thing that this approach cannot adjust for is bad weather. I've put stars next to kickers who have played in the five windiest, snowest places to kick. For kickers like Vinatieri and Longwell moving to a dome team, you may want to add about five points here; similarly, you may want to subtract five points for Cundiff and Gramatica.)

 

[Mike Herman]

good stuff

 

[Tick]

Nedney's a guy who'll explode if he gets a good offense behind him.

 

[trader jake]

One thing that this approach cannot adjust for is bad weather

weather conditions in general...elam is a great kicker, but i'm sure he benefits in the AAA rankings because of the thin air he kicks in at mile high

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

The problem with accuracy percentage: No way to differentiate between short and long FGs

Kicker A makes 18 of 20 FGs (90%), Kicker B makes 21 of 24 FGS (87.5%). Is it possible that Kicker B is really more accurate? YES!

Suppose all of Kicker A's attempts are under 45 yards. He's good at the short distances, but the coach won't send him out for long FGs. Suppose Kicker B has the same 20 short attempts, but also has 4 attempts over 45 yards, making 19-of-20 at short distances and making 2-of-4 at long distance. He's got better accuracy than Kicker A at the same FGs, and his strong leg earns him the opportunity to kick longer FGs. But guess what -- the extra kicks only drag down his accuracy percentage. Kicker B is clearly the better kicker, but you wouldn't know it from percentages; you need a deeper look.

The solution: Attempts-Adjusted Accuracy, or AAA

By adjusting for the extra attempts that good kickers get to make -- and the automatic misses that never show up in bad kickers' stats -- you get a better picture of a kicker's actual talent.

Using five years of kicking stats on Footballguys.com player pages, I've calculated AAA rating for thirty kickers who may on the field this year. It takes a kickers accuracy under 40 yards -- kicks that every kicker should be expected to make -- but adjusts the accuracy over 40 yards based on the relative number of attempts at that distance. The AAA rating then takes the weighted average of the under-40 and over-40 numbers using a two-to-one ratio.

Results are below. These are not fantasy rankings - but as a skill rating, they will help you develop your own rankings.

AAA..Kicker

83.3 Elam

82.3 Nedney

81.9 Akers

81.6 Kasay

81.5 Hanson

81.5 Kaeding

80.7 Vanderjagt

79.8 JBrown

79.7 Janikowski

79.2 Stover

79.2 Wilkins

77.6 Rackers

77.5 Edinger

77.5 Graham

77.1 Nugent

76.5 Bironas

74.6 *Vinatieri

74.3 *Reed

74.0 Carney

73.9 *Longwell

73.3 Cundiff

73.3 Tynes

72.0 KBrown

71.3 Mare

70.3 Feely

70.2 *Dawson

68.0 Bryant

67.7 *Lindell (in Buffalo)

67.6 Gramatica

67.5 Peterson

(* One thing that this approach cannot adjust for is bad weather. I've put stars next to kickers who have played in the five windiest, snowest places to kick. For kickers like Vinatieri and Longwell moving to a dome team, you may want to add about five points here; similarly, you may want to subtract five points for Cundiff and Gramatica.)

abrecher,Interesting approach here.

I tend to like kickers on (A) teams that have Red Zone issues and have to kick more field goals (see Arizona / Rackers) or (B) guys with a big leg AND a supportive coach.

(B) - Both are important. If he has a big leg but the coach is weak-minded and wants to punt at the 35, you're not getting that 52-yard chance. He MIGHT give it to you at the end of the first half, but that's it aside from a game-winner chance.

Akers has both. So does Elam. Nedney doesn't have that leg, IMHO.

I want FG opportunities - and I hope my kicker makes 80%+. More chances, more points. If I play in a league with yardage bonuses, even better.

Bironas, for example, is underappreciated.

 

[AB in DC]

I tend to like kickers on (A) teams that have Red Zone issues and have to kick more field goals (see Arizona / Rackers) or (B) guys with a big leg AND a supportive coach.

(B) - Both are important. If he has a big leg but the coach is weak-minded and wants to punt at the 35, you're not getting that 52-yard chance. He MIGHT give it to you at the end of the first half, but that's it aside from a game-winner chance.

Akers has both. So does Elam. Nedney doesn't have that leg, IMHO.

I think AAA captures (B) very well. Take a look at Nedney's stats from last year: 10-for-10 at 40-49 yards, and 2-for-3 at 50+ yards. Those numbers are unheard of. Since 2001, he's 28-for-41 at 40+ including 5-for-8 at 50+, despite only playing three full seasons. (Remember his 50-yard kick in game 1 of 2003 season, which he injured himself on?)For (A), I'm not convinced that a team's Red Zone issues is consistent from year to year. That will be the next step in my research. I suspect that it's more luck than anything you can predict.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I tend to like kickers on (A) teams that have Red Zone issues and have to kick more field goals (see Arizona / Rackers) or (B) guys with a big leg AND a supportive coach.

(B) - Both are important. If he has a big leg but the coach is weak-minded and wants to punt at the 35, you're not getting that 52-yard chance. He MIGHT give it to you at the end of the first half, but that's it aside from a game-winner chance.

Akers has both. So does Elam. Nedney doesn't have that leg, IMHO.

I think AAA captures (B) very well. Take a look at Nedney's stats from last year: 10-for-10 at 40-49 yards, and 2-for-3 at 50+ yards. Those numbers are unheard of. Since 2001, he's 28-for-41 at 40+ including 5-for-8 at 50+, despite only playing three full seasons. (Remember his 50-yard kick in game 1 of 2003 season, which he injured himself on?)

For (A), I'm not convinced that a team's Red Zone issues is consistent from year to year. That will be the next step in my research. I suspect that it's more luck than anything you can predict.

I'd disagree with this. Find me a team with a bad running game and I bet you that there is a good kicker that could be had.Arizona last year - perfect example. Not quite as good, but still up there - Phil Dawson in Cleveland. Yes he was 19th last year in PK points - but he made the 6th most FGs at 27.

Of course if you have a great offense and / or great running game - XPTs will make up for fewer FGs. But I think we're focusing on FGs here.

I do agree with you that the "trick" will be finding and predicting a bad Red Zone offense.

 

[AB in DC]

Of course if you have a great offense and / or great running game - XPTs will make up for fewer FGs. But I think we're focusing on FGs here.

There's the rub. When we get to fantasy points, we're not focusing on FGs, and the additional XPs do make up much of the difference except in extreme cases. So a bad running game isn't going to be enough.One of the best kicking seasons a few years back was Matt Stover in their Super Bowl year, and Ravens had a very good running game but a lousy passing game that year -- and a great defense, of course.

 

[redman]

What's your formula? I'm assuming that you use a multiplier to add weight to kicks made over 40 yards, am I right?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

The AAA rating then takes the weighted average of the under-40 and over-40 numbers using a two-to-one ratio.

 

[Jack Ham & Eggs]

Nedney doesn't have that leg, IMHO.

Take a look at Nedney's stats from last year: 10-for-10 at 40-49 yards, and 2-for-3 at 50+ yards. Those numbers are unheard of. Since 2001, he's 28-for-41 at 40+ including 5-for-8 at 50+, despite only playing three full seasons. (Remember his 50-yard kick in game 1 of 2003 season, which he injured himself on?)

Don't forget it was Mike Nolan's (in this case foolish) faith in Nedney's leg that led to Nathan Vasher's NFL record 108-yard FG return last year. I was at that game and was absolutely stunned that he allowed Nedney to try a 50+ yard FG attempt in severe winds. But it certainly does say something about his confidence in Nedney.That was the only 40+ yarder he missed all year. And, frankly, it was an impossible attempt.

 

[AB in DC]

What's your formula? I'm assuming that you use a multiplier to add weight to kicks made over 40 yards, am I right?

Not exactly. I look at each kicker's ratio of over-40 kicks to under-40 kicks. I then multiply by the over-40 accuracy, so the kicker is rewarded both for attempts and for successful attempts.The under-40 number is the pure accuracy percentage for that range.

 

[mightyeskimo]

The problem with accuracy percentage: No way to differentiate between short and long FGs

Kicker A makes 18 of 20 FGs (90%), Kicker B makes 21 of 24 FGS (87.5%). Is it possible that Kicker B is really more accurate? YES!

Suppose all of Kicker A's attempts are under 45 yards. He's good at the short distances, but the coach won't send him out for long FGs. Suppose Kicker B has the same 20 short attempts, but also has 4 attempts over 45 yards, making 19-of-20 at short distances and making 2-of-4 at long distance. He's got better accuracy than Kicker A at the same FGs, and his strong leg earns him the opportunity to kick longer FGs. But guess what -- the extra kicks only drag down his accuracy percentage. Kicker B is clearly the better kicker, but you wouldn't know it from percentages; you need a deeper look.

The solution: Attempts-Adjusted Accuracy, or AAA

By adjusting for the extra attempts that good kickers get to make -- and the automatic misses that never show up in bad kickers' stats -- you get a better picture of a kicker's actual talent.

Using five years of kicking stats on Footballguys.com player pages, I've calculated AAA rating for thirty kickers who may on the field this year. It takes a kickers accuracy under 40 yards -- kicks that every kicker should be expected to make -- but adjusts the accuracy over 40 yards based on the relative number of attempts at that distance. The AAA rating then takes the weighted average of the under-40 and over-40 numbers using a two-to-one ratio.

Results are below. These are not fantasy rankings - but as a skill rating, they will help you develop your own rankings.

AAA..Kicker

83.3 Elam

82.3 Nedney

81.9 Akers

81.6 Kasay

81.5 Hanson

81.5 Kaeding

80.7 Vanderjagt

79.8 JBrown

79.7 Janikowski

79.2 Stover

79.2 Wilkins

77.6 Rackers

77.5 Edinger

77.5 Graham

77.1 Nugent

76.5 Bironas

74.6 *Vinatieri

74.3 *Reed

74.0 Carney

73.9 *Longwell

73.3 Cundiff

73.3 Tynes

72.0 KBrown

71.3 Mare

70.3 Feely

70.2 *Dawson

68.0 Bryant

67.7 *Lindell (in Buffalo)

67.6 Gramatica

67.5 Peterson

(* One thing that this approach cannot adjust for is bad weather. I've put stars next to kickers who have played in the five windiest, snowest places to kick. For kickers like Vinatieri and Longwell moving to a dome team, you may want to add about five points here; similarly, you may want to subtract five points for Cundiff and Gramatica.)

Wow I appreciate the effort but would like to see something like this applied to a meaningful position in fantasy football! Is this like a Kicker bonus league!?

 

[elcohiba]

FBG's: Oh you're crazy.

Abrecher: Am I? Or am I so sane that you just blew your mind?

FBG's: It's impossible.

Abrecher: Is it? Or is it so possible that your head is spinning like a top?

FBG's: It can't be.

Abrecher: Can't it? Or is your entire world just crashing down all around you?

FBG's: Alright, that's enough.

 

[Red Apples]

i am one of those guys who drafts kickers in the last round.

but i certainly will use this info to make that pick.

thanks.