I am liking Hopkins a lot from the ATL/HOU matchup.I'm really interested to see if Arian Foster gets back on the field this week. If he doesn't, then I think Alfred Blue becomes huge value at $6,400. If Foster does come back, I'll probably avoid the HOU backfield altogether since it'll probably be a time share. Atlanta allows the most points to opposing rbs.
Assuming that Foster misses this game, I'm probably going to be heavy on Lacy, L. Murray, K. Williams & Blue.
I'm also a bit nervous to roll M. Bennett out there at TE. I know his matchup is great, but Chicago may be bad enough that they aren't capable of taking advantage of it.
I wish Forte would get to a quality team. That dude can play football and goes about his business like a pro. He deserves better than what's happening in Chicago.Chicago sounds like a dumpster fire right now. big sale liquidation im sure forte and cutler are being shopped around
I think Bell is probably a fade for GPPs, and a decent play for cash games instead. I'm assuming he'll have the overall highest ownership percentage for TNF.I am using Bell in a pair of large tournaments where I am going with either Carr/Cooper or Bortles/Hurns. He will get a ton of touches though I am sure the Ravens will be focused on him. It is a bit of a selfish play as I just want to root for him and the Steelers Thursday.Thoughts on Bell?Early 50/50 lineup for Thursday, fading Thursday...
Cam
L Murray
K Williams (even if McCoy plays some I will risk it Thursday)
Julio Jones
K Allen
J Jones (Adams likely out and no price change from Mondays performance)
J Reed (Has been very close to TD's the last few weeks and the price is still so low)
J Lambo (need a 4500 kicker and he is at home
DEN D
If McCoy is ruled out after Thursday, his ownership will spike. I still think it'll be decently high Thursday.
As to the Steve Smith question, I think he's a really good play. I am a Steelers fan and the secondary is questionable. Smith is a baller who won't be denied especially in a rivalry game. Although the score is usually really close (mostly decided by a field goal), the defense for both teams are questionable. I imagine our key is to stop Steve Smith, but when has that plan EVER worked against that guy by ANY team? At some point Floyd/J. Brown will have that big game instead of Fitz and although he's done amazing things, so yes they are very strong cash game lineups, but for GPP purposes his ownership will be high, make a contrarian pick and go for it. It's the only way to win.I think the core WRs are Julio, Fitzgerald and James Jones. Of course there are other strong cash options but why go to other options? Explain why I should go with a Steve Smith, Hopkins over any of the three I have mentioned? Are you going to fade Julio or Fitzgerald? Fitzgerald is producing at a very high level right now.
Fitz is a tough fade at his price.I think the core WRs are Julio, Fitzgerald and James Jones. Of course there are other strong cash options but why go to other options? Explain why I should go with a Steve Smith, Hopkins over any of the three I have mentioned? Are you going to fade Julio or Fitzgerald? Fitzgerald is producing at a very high level right now.
yeah I just realized I had 1100 leftover so I scratched that oneI like both of those. Could also swap in Bennett and the Bills D. How much under the cap are you for #1 if you can just upgrade SS to AJG with no other changes?
good point . back to the drawing boardHold the phone VA. KC has been the worst so far. Thats what happens when your #1 corner is suspended for the first 3 games. If he wasnt back I would be in on green as a KC fan. I am off Green, but thats just me. I can see Green having a decent day cause he is a stud. Putting my money elsewhere.
Bump... anyone here doing the Satellites?Does anywhere here play the small dollar Satellites for Sunday Million (or other bigger dollar GPPs)? Last week I laid out 3 x $2 satellites for Thursday and 4 x $2 for Sunday, and hit the (very difficult top 6%) cut line on 3. I went with the big 5k+ games rather than the small top 5 out of 71 types. For the Satellites to the bigger dollar GPPs, its much much worse (like 1 out of 172 entries for the $2 satellite to the $300 monster).
So my total cash outlay was $14, and won $75 in entries. But the EV for the Sunday Million is just $75 x 18%, or $13.50. I got fairly lucky to hit 3 of them, so if it was just 1 or 2 the EV would be much worse. Cutline was at 169, so a fair bit higher than the Quintuple up at 154. Cutline for the Sunday Million itself was 151.
Was cool to hit on these for next week, but I doubt it's sustainable.
+1giants have been decent against the run
might need to pump the breaks on karlos williams
This is very true but at 6300 Williams doesn't need to do a ton as a starting RB if McCoy is out (as appears to be the case), at least in a cash game.+1giants have been decent against the run
might need to pump the breaks on karlos williams
they are number 2 against the run this year. Now, that is in part because of who they have played and how those games have played out...but that said, it is pretty clear that the Giants can be thrown on. every QB they have faced thus far has gone over 300+ yards. Might be more of a Taylor-made day then Williams.
I get it but I keep coming back around to him. Indy's pass defense looks horrible.Bortles :X
Link to DD post?I normally only do 1 Thurs cash lineup, but this week I am going to go with 2.
One lineup is going to fade the Thurs game, the other is going to have Vick, Brown, and Smith (following Dodds' post)
Link to DD post?I normally only do 1 Thurs cash lineup, but this week I am going to go with 2.
One lineup is going to fade the Thurs game, the other is going to have Vick, Brown, and Smith (following Dodds' post)
been traveling and couldn't keep up for the last couple days! ughh
A Counter Strategy I Use in Cash Games
I have been perfecting this over the last few seasons and yesterday it showcased why I like the strategy so well.It starts with what I perceive as this myth: "Don't Stack your QB/WR in cash games".
I have always scratched my head with that one. That's exactly what you do when you would like to score the most points and win a GPP. And when a matchup is great and We expect a QB to shred it, why wouldn't we double up on that situation if the WR was reasonably priced as well.
Not only do I stack in nearly all of my cash game submits, I also look to get the best WR or TE on the opposing team in my lineup (sometimes there is not someone I like enough to warrant this). In my cash games this week, I started with these pairings:
Cam Newton / Olsen Olsen stack only
Carson Palmer / Larry Fitzgerald stack only
Andrew Luck / T.Y. Hilton stack and Kendall Wright
Tom Brady / Julian Edelman stack and Allen Hurns
Tom Brady / Rob Gronkowski stack and Allen Hurns
Russell Wilson / Jimmy Graham stack only
Marcus Mariota / Kendall Wright stack and T.Y. Hilton
Eli Manning / Odell Beckham Jr, stack and Jordan Reed (Thu)
Matt Ryan / Julio Jones stack only
Ben Roethlisberger / Antonio Brown stack and Kenny Britt
Nick Foles / Kenny Britt stack and Antonio Brown
Blake Bortles / Allen Hurns and Julian Edelman
Aaron Rodgers / Randall Cobb stack and Travis Kelce
Alex Smith / Travis Kelce stack and Randall Cobb
I am set to win heavily with 12 of these 14 this week. But forget the results for awhile. I will tell you why I favor this approach:
- When your quarterback is awful (or gets hurt), your lineup is in deep trouble anyway. Suffice it to say the Ben Roethlisberger roster above is not going to win. But would any Roethlisberger roster you created this week have won? If so it did it with everyone else.
- By starting with different bases of 2-3 players, you end up with a wider range of dollars left. This forces you into choosing slightly different players and limiting being over-exposed to any one guy.
- These same lineups can be used in 2X, 3X, 5X, and smaller GPPs. They are high variance plays that can get way above the cutline when all three parts of the stack work. In fact this is what I like the most about this particular strategy). Let's say you are going to allocate $100 to a 3 part stacked lineup.
I would allocate it like this:
$50 (50%) in 2X and 50/50s
$30 (30%) in 3X
$20 (20%) in 5X and smaller GPP
You get the benefit of a major hit when it all goes well.
I realize that 14 starting stack combos can be a bit extreme for people (me included). In most weeks, I am looking to play 4-6 such combos. This week had a lot of games where I thought a shoot was definitely possible and wanted these extra lineups in play to minimize variance on the players I really liked.
Good catch. I had Reed going in one of my lineups, so I will probably pivot off him to Bennett to be safe. Not a big fan of being heavily invested in Bennett, but don't feel like taking any chances. I could plug in Miller, but that lineup already has Vick and Bryant so not sure if I want to go that heavy on Pitt.Be alert on Jordan Reed or anyone else in the Redskins-Eagles game due to possible storm cancellation. Not sure how FD handles these issues if it were to happen.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25323261/redskins-eagles-could-be-moved-to-week-8-due-to-hurricane-joaquin
One rumor is that they would make up the game week 8 since they both have their bye scheduled then. I guess I need to move Reed out of my lineup for anything that starts Thursday.Typically policy is to include the game in the slate as long as it occurs by the following Tuesday or Wednesday I believe. Hope that isnt the case though because it would mean the slate wouldnt pay out until like the following Thursday.
Just glancing back at the rules it looks like theyre just going to count any player in those games as 0's for the week if its cancelled. I know thats what they did for MLB yesterday too. Awful if it happens, but it means the Thursday slate may have alot of unexpected extra value. Even if only 10% of rosters have a player from the game thats 10% of rosters that may have roster positions with guaranteed zeros.One rumor is that they would make up the game week 8 since they both have their bye scheduled then. I guess I need to move Reed out of my lineup for anything that starts Thursday.Typically policy is to include the game in the slate as long as it occurs by the following Tuesday or Wednesday I believe. Hope that isnt the case though because it would mean the slate wouldnt pay out until like the following Thursday.
I don't see this at all. The Ravens can be run and passed on. They have no pass rush. I'm betting that Bell will get plenty and Brown will break free for at least one long TD. Vick can pass when he's given time and he'll have plenty of time against the Ravens. I expect him to have decent rushing yards to go with a passing TD or two. I think Vick is a good play.Wonderllama said:The only reason I would play on Thursday is because I want to use the Ravens defense. I know they're not what they use to be and they're facing Antonio Brown & Le'Veon Bell, but they're also facing Mike Vick on four days notice. You could give Vick 10 days, it wouldn't be enough. He's gonna fumble at least once, maybe twice, in a low scoring game with a Baltimore team desperate for a win. This could be really ugly.
Nerd revenge for the super annoying advertising blitz. They better watch it or the next ban will be from Congress.Fanduel is now totally blocked at my work too. Started Monday. I think I read a couple others having that issue. Last year I was able to do whatever I wanted on FD. This year, I'm not sure if it was the changes made in their lobby and other screens, certain things wouldn't load. I was able to view some things, but couldn't edit a lineup or even join a contest. Now, I'm totally blocked. Blows.
There's a mobile app you know.Fanduel is now totally blocked at my work too. Started Monday. I think I read a couple others having that issue. Last year I was able to do whatever I wanted on FD. This year, I'm not sure if it was the changes made in their lobby and other screens, certain things wouldn't load. I was able to view some things, but couldn't edit a lineup or even join a contest. Now, I'm totally blocked. Blows.
FYI, I also found out last week when travelling in Europe the FD webpage was blocked from entering or editing contests (due to foreign IP address), but the mobile app worked just fine.There's a mobile app you know.Fanduel is now totally blocked at my work too. Started Monday. I think I read a couple others having that issue. Last year I was able to do whatever I wanted on FD. This year, I'm not sure if it was the changes made in their lobby and other screens, certain things wouldn't load. I was able to view some things, but couldn't edit a lineup or even join a contest. Now, I'm totally blocked. Blows.
Of course.There's a mobile app you know.Fanduel is now totally blocked at my work too. Started Monday. I think I read a couple others having that issue. Last year I was able to do whatever I wanted on FD. This year, I'm not sure if it was the changes made in their lobby and other screens, certain things wouldn't load. I was able to view some things, but couldn't edit a lineup or even join a contest. Now, I'm totally blocked. Blows.
The iOS app is actually better than the website interface.There's a mobile app you know.Fanduel is now totally blocked at my work too. Started Monday. I think I read a couple others having that issue. Last year I was able to do whatever I wanted on FD. This year, I'm not sure if it was the changes made in their lobby and other screens, certain things wouldn't load. I was able to view some things, but couldn't edit a lineup or even join a contest. Now, I'm totally blocked. Blows.
Yes the iOS app is great. Live scoring is fantastic. Entering contests is also great. I'd still rather tinker with lineups on my PC if I had to choose though.The iOS app is actually better than the website interface.There's a mobile app you know.Fanduel is now totally blocked at my work too. Started Monday. I think I read a couple others having that issue. Last year I was able to do whatever I wanted on FD. This year, I'm not sure if it was the changes made in their lobby and other screens, certain things wouldn't load. I was able to view some things, but couldn't edit a lineup or even join a contest. Now, I'm totally blocked. Blows.