Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
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Fanduel Week 1 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter karmarooster
- Start date
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Thanks. Found it. So since I am new to that contest, do you play more conservative hoping you'll advance every week? Do you shy away from the boom/bust cheap players?
stuckinthemuck
Footballguy
Carson Wentz is now >>> Dak Prescott in average H-Value. Who's got the cohones to start either of them in GPPs? If so, you're a better man than me.
stuckinthemuck
Footballguy
On the other hand, check out this chalky lineup for cash:
QB
Carson Wentz
5000
RB
DeAngelo Williams
7100
RB
Spencer Ware
5400
WR
Antonio Brown
9300
WR
Julio Jones
9000
WR
Odell Beckham Jr
9100
TE
Coby Fleener
5400
K
Mason Crosby
4700
D
Seattle Seahawks
5000
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karmarooster
Footballguy
I don't get it.
SEC >>> South Dakota State FBS.
Amazing pre-season >>> ok pre-season+broken ribs.
Elite o-line+zeke+dez >>> Eagles.
Better over-under.
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NixonMask
Footballguy
Ill probably play one Wentz lineup. All the arguments against Dak go double for Wentz IMO though. The guy played division 2 college football and was hurt for most of last year. Even the worst NFL defense, and that could easily be the Browns, is going to be unlike anything hes dealt with before.
andrewd173
Footballguy
For my sins, I am an Eagles fan, and saw Wentz live in game one of the preseason - and think he has the "it" factor.
However, even I will state that Wentz has no weapons beyond Ertz, Sproles and maybe a DGB lob in the end zone. He might run around a bit, too. I'm expecting a huge dose of the running game, with a couple first downs from Wentz, that's about it. The game flow should be very sloe as well. 15 point ceiling being reasonable.
The Giants should rack up some points and force Dak to throw in the 2nd half, to a better set of weapons.
At various price points I find myself looking Brees Stafford and Dak more often then not.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
As a guy who lives in the Middle TN area and seen way more Titans football than anyone should have to watch, if you're even sort of thinking that maybe DGB will be a weapon it's going to be a llllloooooonnnnnngggggg season.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I think the conventional approach is to go straight cash lineup approach in week 1 at least, and probably week 2 as well. Week 3 is probably going to require something better than a cash game score to advance.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Wilson- Mia def is terrible
c-mike
ware
brown
obj
marvin jones (super cheap, vs colts)
reed
prater
cle
have 1400 left over, could go gronk but like reed better this week.
c-mike
ware
brown
obj
marvin jones (super cheap, vs colts)
reed
prater
cle
have 1400 left over, could go gronk but like reed better this week.
achemen
Footballguy
I keep coming up with the same type of lineup, with all 3 WR. It's going to be difficult to find differentiation, which kind of concerns me.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
May have to go contrarian on a couple, arob/aj green/nuk
lmack
Footballguy
Coming up with a lot of these guys for cash:
QB - Dak/Wentz, Stafford/Carr
RB - Gurley, Ware, D. Williams, L. Murray,
WR - Brown, Julio/ODB, Cooper, TY, M. Jones,
TE - Fleener, Ertz
Also, when it comes to grinding cash games, do you avoid multi-entry contests? Mostly talking about stuff like the multi entry Big Double up, $2 entry and 43103 slots. I've been doing mostly the 838 man double ups and 100 man 50/50s.
QB - Dak/Wentz, Stafford/Carr
RB - Gurley, Ware, D. Williams, L. Murray,
WR - Brown, Julio/ODB, Cooper, TY, M. Jones,
TE - Fleener, Ertz
Also, when it comes to grinding cash games, do you avoid multi-entry contests? Mostly talking about stuff like the multi entry Big Double up, $2 entry and 43103 slots. I've been doing mostly the 838 man double ups and 100 man 50/50s.
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nicholasm3
Footballguy
I think I will have more of my action on DK this Sunday.. this soft pricing causes a lot of overlap and it becomes a pick em basically. A lot of this is due to value opening up due to injuries and what not but last year FD had softer pricing as well. They want to let the casuals create a "good looking LU" without the grind of digging deep into stats. Pricing on DK>FD with ease. I prefer FD which sucks but if they don't fix the pricing I will move to DK more. They also removed the player % after lock until the game starts, so no more Thursday night ownership % for Sundays games.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Out of curiosity, why is there such a disparity in the views of Amari and Crabtree? Lots of people are touting Amari this week, but no one seems interested in Crabtree. Crabtree was objectively better at catching the football last year and Carr seems just as comfortable throwing the ball to him as he does Amari.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
NixonMask
Footballguy
I dont have access to the stats, but I have heard a few people on a few different podcasts say Crabtree was significantly less efficient than Amari last year, looking at the obvious numbers last year though (how many receptions they had compared to how many targets they got) the opposite looks to be true. Amari did average 4 more YPC though.
Crabtree: 85 receptions on 146 targets = 58.2%
Cooper: 72 receptions on 130 targets = 55.3%
Crabtree: 85 receptions on 146 targets = 58.2%
Cooper: 72 receptions on 130 targets = 55.3%
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Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Amari dropped a higher percentage of his "catchable balls" than any other WR -- 18 drops out of 90 "catchable balls" per PFF.NixonMask said:
karmarooster
Footballguy
Crabtree was also significantly better in the Red Zone. I think people in redraft and DFS are just assuming that Cooper makes some improvement after his rookie year (amazing that he 'quietly' put up 72/1000/6 as a rookie) and that Crabtree is getting old or will be passed-by. But Crabtree is just 28 and they don't have a strong slot option or TE. I see them more as inter-changeable 1a and 1b options. Therefore based on redraft ADP and DFS pricing, Crabtree is the better value and maybe even more likely to score. At 6100 along with Marvin Jones at 5400, they are pretty much the only 'value' WRs I'm still looking at.
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Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
There are so many "value plays" on FD that I'm somewhat paralyzed. Ware/Michael look like solid values @ RB. But as you say, Crabtree and Ma. Jones look like solid values @ WR (and Fuller has a certain appeal to me, and as God is my witness I think Andre Johnson is worth a look, but those are GPP plays more than cash). I wish FD did a Salary Pro option like Fantasy Aces does.
Nevertheless, this is what I've put together on the back of the envelope as an initial effort at Sunday-Monday action. I haven't run these through the interactive salary tool yet, so they may deviate sharply from FBG projections. There's too much overlap to run them both out in cash this early in the season for my tastes.
Luck
Ware/Michael
Julio/Brown/Crabtree
Kelce
Hauschka
Seahawks
Carr
Elliott/Ware
Julio/Brown/Ma. Jones
Fleenor
Vinatieri
Seahawks
karmarooster
Footballguy
I'm avoiding ABrown in favor of Julio and ODB due to the road and the Josh Norman factor. I was initially on Fleener as well, but with the value plays now obvious, I'm favoring Reed and to a lesser extent Kelce. Fleener is ok for GPP but looks like he's struggled to catch on to the playbook.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Yeah I'm not digging Fleener either. My worry on ODB is the general putridness of NY's OL coupled w/ Eli's panicked tendencies. Of course the cowboy defense isn't exactly awesome. It's the resistible force meeting the movable object. I generally think Brown is match-up proof, especially with Ben gloriously force-feeding him the ball with reckless abandon.
freeannyong
Footballguy
I think if you are fading Brown Fanduel is the place to do it. He rarely scores touchdowns on the road which may also have to do with how awful Ben has been on the road.
I can still see with with like 10-120 but on fanduel missing that touchdown hurts a lot more than DK
I can still see with with like 10-120 but on fanduel missing that touchdown hurts a lot more than DK
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
It feels like Stafford is going to have a monster game to me. Everything points to it being a pass-heavy day for Detroit. Indy figures to score. Indy literally has no one in the secondary. Stafford really seemed to thrive under Jim Bob Cooter's reign as OC last year. The pricing is so soft, however, that if I go w/ all the "value plays" I can't spend all my salary. A lot is going to hinge on picking the right "value guys" from the long list of candidates.
Itchy Amos
Footballguy
I started off great last year and then got a bit too obsessive and ended up skipping the second half of the season for my sanity. Ironically, it seemed the more research I did - the worse my picks were. I'm going to try to have some fun with it this year without it taking over my every thought.
I think I'm all in on Spencer Ware. I will have one minimum priced QB lineup (probably Dak - but its not set in stone) and another built around Stafford.
I think I'm all in on Spencer Ware. I will have one minimum priced QB lineup (probably Dak - but its not set in stone) and another built around Stafford.
Bobcat10
Footballguy
When I pencil in Dak, and use my permanent pen on Ware, I like pairing with Gurley instead of going with three 9k+ WRs. Can still do something like Jones/Hopkins/Cooper at WR. Not finding issues working in ODB and Brown with a Ware/Michael base with Stafford or Carr. Now just need to work on Ware/Deangelo and it should be a wrap for me. I'm trying not to overthink things this week (and year) like I also have come prone to in the past.
Dan Hindery
Moderator
My first inclination this week is to pay up somewhat at both QB (leaning Stafford) and TE (Reed) and roll with one bargain receiver (Jones) vs. going the Dak/Cheap TE/3 stud WR route.
It would be a cash lineup that likely crashes and burns if the Detroit guys don't have strong games, but I really like that spot for the Lions and am thinking I am okay with the risk/reward there.
I also like Carr and Crabtree, so maybe the move is to diversify with one of the Oakland guys and one of the Detroit guys and just cross fingers that the top receivers don't go too nuts.
It would be a cash lineup that likely crashes and burns if the Detroit guys don't have strong games, but I really like that spot for the Lions and am thinking I am okay with the risk/reward there.
I also like Carr and Crabtree, so maybe the move is to diversify with one of the Oakland guys and one of the Detroit guys and just cross fingers that the top receivers don't go too nuts.
freeannyong
Footballguy
I am leaning that way too Dan. Dak is a 4th round qb, so the best comparison I could think of is Russell Wilson making his first few starts. These were his lines:Dan Hindery said:
153 yards 1 td 1 int 20 rush 1 fumble
151 yards 1 td 0 int 28 rush
130 yards 2 td 0 int 18 rush
160 yards 0 td 3 INT 14 rush
The regular season defense is going to be miles different from what he faced in the preseason, his floor is just so so much lower than Carr or Stafford and even Osweiller that I don't think I can pull the trigger.
Dan Hindery
Moderator
Good research. I feel like the ~160 passing numbers like Wilson are more likely than the 220+ I am seeing in a lot of projections. I am more bullish on Dak's rushing totals (he likes to run near the end zone and ran a lot more in college than Russ did) than some others are though. My main concern is that I fade him and he rushes for 40 and a TD. But still think I'm willing to take that risk and basically bet that it's Zeke who is finishing off the drives.
Plus, there's the realistic potential that Stafford or Carr throw for 300 with 3 or 4 TDs and give you the point per dollar advantage even if Dak gets his 18-20 points.
NixonMask
Footballguy
If you use Colin Kaepernick as a comp his first games starting were:
117 yards 0 td 0 int 60 rush 1 rush td = 16.68 fanduel points
243 yards 2 td 0 int 10 rush = 18.72 fanduel points
231 yards 1 td 1 int 27 rush 1 rush td = 19.94 fanduel points
208 yards 0 td 0 int 84 rush = 16.72
True, those were not his first games, he sat for about a year. But, he does have the same running ability and I think its a safe assumption that Dak's football IQ is probably alot closer to Kaep's than Wilson's at the respective points in their careers.
117 yards 0 td 0 int 60 rush 1 rush td = 16.68 fanduel points
243 yards 2 td 0 int 10 rush = 18.72 fanduel points
231 yards 1 td 1 int 27 rush 1 rush td = 19.94 fanduel points
208 yards 0 td 0 int 84 rush = 16.72
True, those were not his first games, he sat for about a year. But, he does have the same running ability and I think its a safe assumption that Dak's football IQ is probably alot closer to Kaep's than Wilson's at the respective points in their careers.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I've been tweaking my many lineups today, and here are players I've added and dropped:
Adrian Peterson
Not a knock on his prospects. But I think that RBs like Deangelo Williams and Lesean McCoy will offer similar numbers for less money.
Donte Moncrief and TY Hilton
I fell in love with their prices, and I love these two for the season. But this week I think there are safer bargains at WR such as Crabtree, Marvin Jones, and Desean Jackson. I want to see that Indy offensive line before I invest in the WRs.
AJ Green
Again, love him this season. But this feels like a hornets nest. I'd rather pay for DeAndre Hopkins.
Virgil Green
Love his price and I think he's a sleeper this season. But I want to see it on the field first. Would rather pay a $100 less for Jesse James.
Rob Gronkowski
Why pay $8,700 for Gronk when Jordan Reed is only $7,400? I think as long as Reed is healthy this year, he will put up similar numbers to Gronk.
Adrian Peterson
Not a knock on his prospects. But I think that RBs like Deangelo Williams and Lesean McCoy will offer similar numbers for less money.
Donte Moncrief and TY Hilton
I fell in love with their prices, and I love these two for the season. But this week I think there are safer bargains at WR such as Crabtree, Marvin Jones, and Desean Jackson. I want to see that Indy offensive line before I invest in the WRs.
AJ Green
Again, love him this season. But this feels like a hornets nest. I'd rather pay for DeAndre Hopkins.
Virgil Green
Love his price and I think he's a sleeper this season. But I want to see it on the field first. Would rather pay a $100 less for Jesse James.
Rob Gronkowski
Why pay $8,700 for Gronk when Jordan Reed is only $7,400? I think as long as Reed is healthy this year, he will put up similar numbers to Gronk.
Joe T
Footballguy
No. NFL Network at lunch was saying West was dinged up and Ware was the only one good to go.
But if you are trying to place doubt in all the Ware buyers around here, I like it.
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karmarooster
Footballguy
Yes... these are not the droids you're looking for.No. NFL Network at lunch was saying West was dinged up and Ware was the only one good to go.
But if you are trying to place doubt in all the Ware buyers around here, I like it.
no, it was being said on rotogrinders. I have in season long and also DFS. just wanted to make sure I wasnt on the wrong end the first week of the season..lolNo. NFL Network at lunch was saying West was dinged up and Ware was the only one good to go.
But if you are trying to place doubt in all the Ware buyers around here, I like it.
nicholasm3
Footballguy
Is no one on Wilson? I feel like he could be a top 3 QB this week with less than 5% ownership. I also don't see anyone talking about Tyrod, I like these QBs with a safe rushing floor. I am not on Tyrod as much as I am Wilson, but Tyrod has a lot of things going for him this week. That being said, I may play Wilson in my cash lineup. IF you want the ultimate contrarian play, I would go Cam in the Thurs-Mon slate. I doubt he has as bad as game as he did in the SB and that is another guy with a safe rushing floor. Obviously the Denver D is no joke, but Cam is too talented to put up 2 duds b2b vs same team esp in primetime like this. No way I would play in cash, however GPP Id be willing to throw a dart. Brock is a guy who intrigues me also, Bears D banged up. Has more weapons than he did in Denver and a whole training camp under his belt, could be a solid play also.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Love Wilson because I think he could destroy Miami if he needs to. But that's the question: will he need to? I look at that Seattle/Miami game and I see a brutal blowout - something like Seattle 31, Miami 9. So given that possible game script, I am limiting my exposure with Wilson.
God bless anyone willing to spend the money on Cam. I am starting Stafford over Cam in my dynasty league this week.
nicholasm3
Footballguy
And how do you think they get to 31? Rawls coming off a busted ankle? 4 defensive TDS? CMike 3 TDS? I think Wilson accounts for 3 scores.jdoggydogg said:
nicholasm3
Footballguy
If you look to an earlier post on here by me I said that they removed that a few days ago starting in MLB, I assume it will be like that for NBA. It is rather odd. Maybe they will be implementing late swap because it makes no sense.
NixonMask
Footballguy
It appears to be a permanent switch. Their position is it levels the playing field. No one has the info, before anyone who wanted the info (and therefor an unfair advantage over other players) could enter a contest on Thursdays and have a pretty good idea of what ownership would look like on Sunday. If you really want it you can get a decent idea from the Fantasy Aces Thursday contests.
