What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

FanDuel Week 12 (1 Viewer)

Ever Present Lurker said:
Don’t forget, Hunt is playing Buffalo.  This matters.
Click to expand...
I get that and the fact that they are at home, and as usual I am talking out loud here and bouncing ideas.  

What surprised me is the ownership and popularity and that has to matter for gpps.  IF we are thinking that Hunt is 30% owned at 7.7K and Kamara is 20% at 8.1K I start to wonder if Hunt is a fade candidate for gpps.  It's not like we are talking guys like McCoy and Howard from last week who were those <5% darts but still get the carries, this is looking like the chalk RB of the week who hasn't done much and has had good matchups on paper over the last couple months.  We had Hunt chalk week last week too.  :shrug:  

I guess I keep going back to what FBGs says about ownership:  If a guy is X% owned in a gpp, you have to think that he has that X% chance at hitting his gpp multiplier (3x).  So I guess I need to decide if I think he could get to 24pts or so 25+% of the time.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results".
 

Yes, this could apply to my gpp plays, but is this also where we are with Hunt?  He hasn't hit 2x in 7 games, and hasn't had double digit points in the last 3 games, and it looks like he is right at the top for highest owned RB for the week the couple places that I saw.   I get not giving up completely, but it seems weird that he would still be higher owned than backs like Bell, Ingram, Gurley, and Kamara on the week.  I honestly don't know what to do with this.  

I am starting to feel the same way about Julio as well, and have seen people say that he will be higher owned than AB on the week.  
Click to expand...
Part of it is price. Both Hunt and Julio are priced in a spot that makes us forget their recent scores. We can add them and still have room for others. I will be on both this week. There is also some fear involved here too. I would hate to have missed their big week while everyone else was on it (same reason I do the powerball lottery at work...I don't want to be the only one left there if it hits).  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
FatNate said:
Part of it is price. Both Hunt and Julio are priced in a spot that makes us forget their recent scores. We can add them and still have room for others. I will be on both this week. There is also some fear involved here too. I would hate to have missed their big week while everyone else was on it (same reason I do the powerball lottery at work...I don't want to be the only one left there if it hits).  
Click to expand...
For sure, especially after playing Hunt basically every week all year, you start to feel pot committed to him at this point.  Like I said, I was just shocked by the ownership and it just seemed like in a gpp the better play is a NO guy at lower ownership in a high scoring game vs. a bad rush Db/c what are the odds even if Hunt has his big game, it's going to vastly outscore one of those guys?  

Long story short - with my recent track record, if I do end up fading Hunt you guys better be playing him in 100% of LUs.  ;)

 
KarmaPolice said:
I get that and the fact that they are at home, and as usual I am talking out loud here and bouncing ideas.  

What surprised me is the ownership and popularity and that has to matter for gpps.  IF we are thinking that Hunt is 30% owned at 7.7K and Kamara is 20% at 8.1K I start to wonder if Hunt is a fade candidate for gpps.  It's not like we are talking guys like McCoy and Howard from last week who were those <5% darts but still get the carries, this is looking like the chalk RB of the week who hasn't done much and has had good matchups on paper over the last couple months.  We had Hunt chalk week last week too.  :shrug:  

I guess I keep going back to what FBGs says about ownership:  If a guy is X% owned in a gpp, you have to think that he has that X% chance at hitting his gpp multiplier (3x).  So I guess I need to decide if I think he could get to 24pts or so 25+% of the time.  
Click to expand...
I hear ya, but at this point, you have to consider Buffalo as your marker for mega-performances until proven otherwise.  Maybe it will be Hill, maybe it will be Hunt.  But one of them is going to harness nuclear fusion this weekend, you watch.

 
The combination of Rishard Matthews trending the wrong way and Lattimore being out has me shifting out of Matthews, adding a bit more Kupp, bringing Sammy Watkins into the picture and bumping up Corey Davis

 
Ever Present Lurker said:
The combination of Rishard Matthews trending the wrong way and Lattimore being out has me shifting out of Matthews, adding a bit more Kupp, bringing Sammy Watkins into the picture and bumping up Corey Davis
Click to expand...
I think the Rams have DB injuries too.  I am thinking that game can be attacked just about any way you want. 

 
Also finding a couple places to squeeze McCoy in: replacing Kamara and Ingram, once each.  Ownership looks lower on McCoy and it'll be dumpoff city for him.  And also there's no one else to throw to.

I also threw together one Bills-heavy GPP lineup, because garbage time could start late in the first quarter.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Just nuts.  I was looking at Ingram and Kamara to see if they are too expensive to roster together now.  Granted, they have 1 more game than the players below them, but they are #1 and #2 in FD scoring over the last 6 weeks.  They are averaging 39pts/g during that time, so at their combined salary (16.3K), that is 2.39x, and we have seen their ceiling the last couple weeks where both have ended up in the top 4 each week where they are averaging 49pts/g (3x at this week's salary).  

Not sure if I will do it and it does seem like chasing points a little, but I just thought it was interesting just how studly that running game is this year. 

 
KarmaPolice said:
Just nuts.  I was looking at Ingram and Kamara to see if they are too expensive to roster together now.  Granted, they have 1 more game than the players below them, but they are #1 and #2 in FD scoring over the last 6 weeks.  They are averaging 39pts/g during that time, so at their combined salary (16.3K), that is 2.39x, and we have seen their ceiling the last couple weeks where both have ended up in the top 4 each week where they are averaging 49pts/g (3x at this week's salary).  

Not sure if I will do it and it does seem like chasing points a little, but I just thought it was interesting just how studly that running game is this year. 
Click to expand...
on the power grid fbg podcast there was discussion of how the Rams are strong versus pass-catching backs....so I'm playing less Kamara than last week.....but still heavy Ingram. Ingram has achieved Bell status....I'd start him against the Eagles.

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
on the power grid fbg podcast there was discussion of how the Rams are strong versus pass-catching backs....so I'm playing less Kamara than last week.....but still heavy Ingram. Ingram has achieved Bell status....I'd start him against the Eagles.
Click to expand...
Interesting.  I see that they are 20th DVOA vs. the run, but 9th vs. RB-pass.  I assume that's what they were talking about? (I still haven't gotten to the Powergrid this week).  I guess I just wrote down the OL vs. DL matchups and didn't go much farther than that.  Thanks, I will have to think about that.  

 
When I was looking at bad rush Ds, a couple really cheap backs stood out this week as possible gpp options:  McKissic and Booker.

I think Seattle had another RB go down, and I think McKissic had the highest % of touches last week.  I also noticed that Booker had 20 touches last week vs. CJAs 13.  Both are only 5.5K.  I like Booker slightly more b/c maybe they keep the O simple for Lynch a bit and Oakland is terrible all around.    I kind of like one of these guys paired with Bell.  

I also like that Indy/Ten game for gpp options too.  Something like Brissett/Hilton/C.Davis game stack would leave a lot of room for studs elsewhere.  Or even Mariota/Walker/Hilton.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
When I was looking at bad rush Ds, a couple really cheap backs stood out this week as possible gpp options:  McKissic and Booker.

I think Seattle had another RB go down, and I think McKissic had the highest % of touches last week.  I also noticed that Booker had 20 touches last week vs. CJAs 13.  Both are only 5.5K.  I like Booker slightly more b/c maybe they keep the O simple for Lynch a bit and Oakland is terrible all around.    I kind of like one of these guys paired with Bell.  

I also like that Indy/Ten game for gpp options too.  Something like Brissett/Hilton/C.Davis game stack would leave a lot of room for studs elsewhere.  Or even Mariota/Walker/Hilton.  
Click to expand...
I like Booker a lot this week.  His usage is trending in the right direction and ownership will be low.  He's a nice guy to pair with an expensive Rb.  I like pairing him with Bell, Mccoy or Hunt more than rostering both Saints rbs.  I think the Rams try to contain Kamara.  I heard on satellite radio how they contain pass catching backs well. They both can't keep this production up, right?

I have a lot of Hilton/Walker.  Has Brissett been cleared from the concussion protocol?

I'm liking Kupp a lot this week as well.

Am I crazy to throw Burkhead in a couple of lineups?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Have a $5 ticket for this weekend where only 300 of 13k+  place so going with this

dalton hunt booker julio green cooks kroft succup pitt

 
Cabby said:
I like Booker a lot this week.  His usage is trending in the right direction and ownership will be low.  He's a nice guy to pair with an expensive Rb.  I like pairing him with Bell, Mccoy or Hunt more than rostering both Saints rbs.  I think the Rams try to contain Kamara.  I heard on satellite radio how they contain pass catching backs well. They both can't keep this production up, right?

I have a lot of Hilton/Walker.  Has Brissett been cleared from the concussion protocol?

I'm liking Kupp a lot this week as well.

Am I crazy to throw Burkhead in a couple of lineups?
Click to expand...


I am not sure on Jacoby - thought I read something about him probably starting, but I need to double check that too.  0 interest if we get the Tolzien show on Sunday.  

I have him written down too, as well as D.Lewis as a possibility.  I wish I knew how to quit them.  This will be the week Billy B trolls us and activates Gilleslee on gameday..  

 
A few gpp shots I have heard mentioned on podcasts or seen in write-ups for WRs:  Bryant/Rogers with JuJu out, Cole or Westbrook for Jax, and C.Coleman (he actually had a decent game last week vs. the toughest pass D in Jax).  

Those were more gpp darts with cheap guys like C.Davis, Kupp, and Stills being the chalkier cheap plays.  

 
Not sure how much I like it, but my current placeholder for a gpp:  Brady - Bell/Booker - Hilton/C.Davis/Stills - Gronk - Bryant - Pitts.  

I always love taking shots with Brady, but that pairing does decrease what I can do at WR if I go this route, but it still has correlation with Stills playing catchup, and Hilton + Davis.   

There was another variation that had 3 7K WRs in there, but I stupidly didn't write that down.  

 
I'm all in on Hunt and Jones.  I have them in almost every lineup.  I don't feel all that confident...

 
Last edited by a moderator:
KarmaPolice said:
Not sure how much I like it, but my current placeholder for a gpp:  Brady - Bell/Booker - Hilton/C.Davis/Stills - Gronk - Bryant - Pitts.  

I always love taking shots with Brady, but that pairing does decrease what I can do at WR if I go this route, but it still has correlation with Stills playing catchup, and Hilton + Davis.   

There was another variation that had 3 7K WRs in there, but I stupidly didn't write that down.  
Click to expand...
Been a busy week for me with the holidays, but one of my gpp placeholders is built around Brady/Gronk/Antonio, game script for both is turning me off though, so I'm going to keep them in there (remember our new mentality karma, opposite of our guts, lol). Filled in with low cost, high upside WRs, Gostkowski, 2 mid priced, high upside RBs, and ATL defense (thinking they are low owned and hitting their stride against a horrid TB offense)

Hopefully I'll have some time tonight or tomorrow morning to throw my assessments for the week on here. Would love to bounce some ideas off you fine folks before game time. 

I think my problem is, I like to create game scripts in my head that make sense based off of matchups and I can do that for any team in any game. Which typically forces me to diversify my lineups a bit more than I probably should. I feel like I should be better at this than "breaking even or producing a very small profit". Maybe I'm looking at it wrong and should just grind it out in cash games, where I've been relatively successful, but I do that in the stock market and at the poker table, so this is where my "lotto ticket" plays come in to play I suppose. I just want one big win. To prove to myself that I don't actually suck at this and more importantly (and I've said this before), to prove to my wife all my time invested was worth it. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I have sort of settled into this line up for cash...

Wilson - Hunt/Coleman - J. Jones (or AJG)/M. Thomas/Kupp - Walker - Gostkowski - Cincy

Can't decide between Julio or AJ and a little nervous that this lineup leaves $700 on the table.

 
jerseys finest said:
Been a busy week for me with the holidays, but one of my gpp placeholders is built around Brady/Gronk/Antonio, game script for both is turning me off though, so I'm going to keep them in there (remember our new mentality karma, opposite of our guts, lol). Filled in with low cost, high upside WRs, Gostkowski, 2 mid priced, high upside RBs, and ATL defense (thinking they are low owned and hitting their stride against a horrid TB offense)
Click to expand...
####, that means I need to be putting together some Hunt and Julio LUs because everything is telling me to stay away.  

I am also not loving Gronk after I am thinking about it.  Watching the games it just feels like something is not right in the way that they are are using him and he is get less of those downfield targets.  

SO that means I need to report back with a LU with Hunt, Julio, Gronk in it for you since we are going to do some opposites. Throw in a couple other guys I don't like on the week for good measure.  ;)  

 
One place I'm finding salary relief and a little variation is by playing Denver's Defense.  Yes, they've been outright taken apart by some good defenses of late, but you know who didn't take them apart?  The Raiders.  The Raiders scored 10 points on the Broncos in Week 4, couldn't run the ball if there life depended on it, got there QB killed, etc, etc...  $4400, saves $400+ over the chalk plays and I like their chances to do just as well, if not better.

 
KarmaPolice said:
####, that means I need to be putting together some Hunt and Julio LUs because everything is telling me to stay away.  

I am also not loving Gronk after I am thinking about it.  Watching the games it just feels like something is not right in the way that they are are using him and he is get less of those downfield targets.  

SO that means I need to report back with a LU with Hunt, Julio, Gronk in it for you since we are going to do some opposites. Throw in a couple other guys I don't like on the week for good measure.  ;)  
Click to expand...
We should do a forum lineup for players we hate most each week lol

 
KarmaPolice said:
####, that means I need to be putting together some Hunt and Julio LUs because everything is telling me to stay away.  

I am also not loving Gronk after I am thinking about it.  Watching the games it just feels like something is not right in the way that they are are using him and he is get less of those downfield targets.  

SO that means I need to report back with a LU with Hunt, Julio, Gronk in it for you since we are going to do some opposites. Throw in a couple other guys I don't like on the week for good measure.  ;)  
Click to expand...
Gronk is due a monster game though, right? I don't think it should be this game against a struggling dolphins team, but that just seems when the players I fade go CRAZY. 

Ever Present Lurker said:
We should do a forum lineup for players we hate most each week lol
Click to expand...
OMG, we would win everything!

 
I will pay for an entry into the Fanduel $7 gazillionaire contest.  We will create a team we hate, right now.  Anything less than a life-changing amount of money, we could roll into another week, if we win big, we split it and retire to Hoboken NJ.
 

Who's on our team???

 
OK, I have those 4 done, now on two the others.  Here is one of the LUs:

Mariota - Hunt/Fournette - Julio/C.Davis/LaFell - Gronk - Tavecchio - Jax

 
Ever Present Lurker said:
LOL for lack of participation, the team is:

Matt Ryan, Demarco Murray, McCaffery, Larry Fitz, Evans, Demaryious, Gronk, Tavecchio, Seahawks

Not a fan of any of them this week!
Click to expand...
I love this. This is my first fade team as I realize I have enough to make another tomorrow. 

Mccown, powell, Howard, Evans, Anderson, Julio, gronk, Crosby, Titans. 

 
Ever Present Lurker said:
LOL for lack of participation, the team is:

Matt Ryan, Demarco Murray, McCaffery, Larry Fitz, Evans, Demaryious, Gronk, Tavecchio, Seahawks

Not a fan of any of them this week!
Click to expand...
:lol: I did use McCaffrey and Ryan too.  

Honestly never thought much about Fitz and Evans.  

Cam miggt be somebody I should force myself to use.  He's one of those players I really dislike and don't ever use. 

 
KarmaPolice said:
When I was looking at bad rush Ds, a couple really cheap backs stood out this week as possible gpp options:  McKissic and Booker.

I think Seattle had another RB go down, and I think McKissic had the highest % of touches last week.  I also noticed that Booker had 20 touches last week vs. CJAs 13.  Both are only 5.5K.  I like Booker slightly more b/c maybe they keep the O simple for Lynch a bit and Oakland is terrible all around.    I kind of like one of these guys paired with Bell.  

I also like that Indy/Ten game for gpp options too.  Something like Brissett/Hilton/C.Davis game stack would leave a lot of room for studs elsewhere.  Or even Mariota/Walker/Hilton.  
Click to expand...
I love the Colts/Titans game. Using both QBs and stacking. 

 
Any weather concerns this week? Im reading they are calling for a bit of rain and wind for the Seattle/SF game.

 
Cabby said:
Any weather concerns this week? Im reading they are calling for a bit of rain and wind for the Seattle/SF game.
Click to expand...
Den@Oak in the same area, but it doesn't sound like much to worry about.  I wouldn't let it affect your decisions.

 
Galileo said:
I have sort of settled into this line up for cash...

Wilson - Hunt/Coleman - J. Jones (or AJG)/M. Thomas/Kupp - Walker - Gostkowski - Cincy

Can't decide between Julio or AJ and a little nervous that this lineup leaves $700 on the table.
Click to expand...
So far, so good with this one.  I did settle on Julio.  This my only line up and it is entered in a bunch of 50/50s and Double ups.  Hunt isn’t helping.

 
Galileo said:
So far, so good with this one.  I did settle on Julio.  This my only line up and it is entered in a bunch of 50/50s and Double ups.  Hunt isn’t helping.
Click to expand...
Good luck the rest of the way!  How owned is Hunt in cash?  As much as I didn't love him this week, no way would I have thought that he would have <10yds at the 1/2.  I used him in my one cash/league LU too.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
Good luck the rest of the way!  How owned is Hunt in cash?  As much as I didn't love him this week, no way would I have thought that he would have <10yds at the 1/2.  I used him in my one cash/league LU too.  
Click to expand...
I just looked through 6 or 7 contests and the lowest I saw was 28% ownership.  The highest was 36.3%

 
Sitting at 188 with Big Ben, Brown, Martavis, and Pitt defense with a few minutes left. Had the Pitt stack with a falcons stack (Coleman and Jones), and Gronk and Bullock. Hit big on all positions except for defense. 

Only entered it into a $1 100 man but still happy with the $25 payout. 

Overall a very fun week.  I realize scoring was way up compared to previous weeks. Had Julio in 18 of my 26 lineups. The IVC has failed me the past couple of weeks but 2 of my 3 cash lineups hit 150+ and had them entered in 50/50, 3 man and 5 mans. 

25 in and $51 out.  

 
Geez.  Very high cut lines again...even higher than last week!  141.82 and I am on the outside looking in on several entries.  Dangerously close to falling below on others.  This tie game with 2 minutes left is going to help my cause about as much as Hunt did today.   :loco:

 
Wow Sunday night game was really fun to watch.  Lots of points for the killa B's.  Can probably add "Boswell" to that after the clutch game winner.

 
Galileo said:
Geez.  Very high cut lines again...even higher than last week!  141.82 and I am on the outside looking in on several entries.  Dangerously close to falling below on others.  This tie game with 2 minutes left is going to help my cause about as much as Hunt did today.   :loco:
Click to expand...
Sure enough...lost another $12 of profit because of this OT game.  Oh well, I guess I shouldn't complain.  $43.00 in, $57.40 out.  But I thought I was headed for a big week.  Freakin 50/50s with 143.96 cut lines... pfft.  This is getting too hard.  

 
Another Sunday, another damn near no-fer.  Just like last week, I had a higher % than the field on a lot of big scorers in gpps, just not enough in the same LUs, and mixed with too many duds like Hunt and McKissic. 

0 clue how pros have sustained success doing this, although I think I read that most of their ROIs are better for other sports. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
KarmaPolice said:
Another Sunday, another damn near no-fer.  Just like last week, I had a higher % than the field on a lot of big scorers in gpps, just not enough in the same LUs, and mixed with too many duds like Hunt and McKissic. 

0 clue how pros have sustained success doing this, although I think I read that most of their ROIs are better for other sports. 
Click to expand...
Just missed the 200 mark with my Pitt super stack. Ended at 197. 

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

BassNBrew
Fanduel Week 7
Replies
0
Views
352
BassNBrew
BassNBrew
Steeler
Week 2 DFS idea
Replies
6
Views
483
SeniorVBDStudent
SeniorVBDStudent
L
FanDuel -- Week 1 2022
Replies
12
Views
808
EBF
EBF

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top