FanDuel Week 12 (1 Viewer)

[KarmaPolice]

Just missed the 200 mark with my Pitt super stack. Ended at 197. 

Nice!

One of my two that was above the cash line was a Pitt stack, but I had Ingram and his single digit game and a dud PK.

 

[Raging weasel]

scored 127 and wasnt close to winning anything. Had Julio Kamara, Coleman and not much else with Crabtree ejection and Stills sucking. Played a Ben,Kamara Julio Brown team in my 3 man that beat me with just those 4-lol. $5 in 0 out.

After 2 duds in great matchups Im not sure Id start Hunt at min price

 

[FatNate]

Noticed the high cut lines too. Another below par week for me. Looks like I need 25pts from Flacco and Malcin for my Thu-Mon lineup to have a chance. 

 

[FatNate]

I also have four Baltimore players left on a 'primetime' lineup that is at 100pts now. It might have a chance to cash tonight. 

 

[KarmaPolice]

I also have four Baltimore players left on a 'primetime' lineup that is at 100pts now. It might have a chance to cash tonight. 

I am sure it's been talked about before, but I was wondering what people do with their rosters on small slates like this.  

I have a LU sitting at 130 with 4 slots left for tonight.  Looks like the leader of the gpp is at about 159 with only 1 slot left (Def).  I also noticed there are about 100 entries with my same score and I clicked on a few and they have the exact same positions left open - WR, TE, K, Def.  

Do you keep the roster as is, or change something around?  I had Ben - J.Will/Bell - Brown/Bryant in last night.  I got a low owned good game out of Williams (15%), and a TD out of Bryant (25%), so I did get a couple lower % guys out of the LU already.  What I have left is Hopkins, Watson, Tucker, Balt  which I assume is a popular combo left as well.  I know I should just be happy that I might be cashing something tonight, but I was just curious if there is something else to look at since the TEs, PKs, and DEFs that the top teams used last night didn't score a ton and there is ground that could be made up there assuming Hopkins could keep pace with Adams or Cobb.  

 

[FatNate]

I am sure it's been talked about before, but I was wondering what people do with their rosters on small slates like this.  

I have a LU sitting at 130 with 4 slots left for tonight.  Looks like the leader of the gpp is at about 159 with only 1 slot left (Def).  I also noticed there are about 100 entries with my same score and I clicked on a few and they have the exact same positions left open - WR, TE, K, Def.  

Do you keep the roster as is, or change something around?  I had Ben - J.Will/Bell - Brown/Bryant in last night.  I got a low owned good game out of Williams (15%), and a TD out of Bryant (25%), so I did get a couple lower % guys out of the LU already.  What I have left is Hopkins, Watson, Tucker, Balt  which I assume is a popular combo left as well.  I know I should just be happy that I might be cashing something tonight, but I was just curious if there is something else to look at since the TEs, PKs, and DEFs that the top teams used last night didn't score a ton and there is ground that could be made up there assuming Hopkins could keep pace with Adams or Cobb.  

I think the TE from Houston may be low owned, but I don't have the stats to back it up. I also think Hopkins will be highly owned, so moving off him (for Ellington or one of the Balt WRs) may help differentiate. Personally, I would stick with what you have (what you liked when you made the lineup) and take the cash it earns. It is hard being unique with a two game slate, so give me the most points possible and I will split the money with his ever many it works out to be. 

 

[KarmaPolice]

Looks like most at the top were Basically Ben + Brown  with Julio and then some combo of Coleman/Kamara/Mixon.  

Makes a ton of sense in hindsight, but I guess I was more on board with GB being garbage and Pitts not needing to do much, so I was on board with playing Bell more (which if we are trying the opposite, I should have been about 75% on Ben-Brown).  I really need to take into account that Pitts always seems to find a way to play down to their competition.  

I am trying to slowly learn from this stuff, and a major thing that has been holding me back each week is the RBs - I just can't seem to get them right at a high enough % this year.  This week I had way too much Ingram, Gurley and my 2 cheap guys and not enough Kamara and Coleman.   Burkhead was my one decent low % play this week for RB.  

At least 1/2 of the LUs were within striking distance of cash lines (<10pts), so there is hope I guess.  

 

[KarmaPolice]

I think the TE from Houston may be low owned, but I don't have the stats to back it up. I also think Hopkins will be highly owned, so moving off him (for Ellington or one of the Balt WRs) may help differentiate. Personally, I would stick with what you have (what you liked when you made the lineup) and take the cash it earns. It is hard being unique with a two game slate, so give me the most points possible and I will split the money with his ever many it works out to be. 

For sure, and I already did that with J.Will at 15%.  Usually you have to dumpster dive to get a guy at <10% on a 2 game slate, and not sure I could do that with the positions left anyway since there wasn't a big stud at TE.  About the only thing might be switching Hopkins to Ellington or Wallace like you said, but I don't think either of them have the 2TD upside that Hopkins does either (basically I am looking to overcome the games that Adams and Cobb had last night with my WR tonight).  

Looking at matchups Houst does have one of the worst Ds vs. WRs too.   Grrr..  

 

[FatNate]

For sure, and I already did that with J.Will at 15%.  Usually you have to dumpster dive to get a guy at <10% on a 2 game slate, and not sure I could do that with the positions left anyway since there wasn't a big stud at TE.  About the only thing might be switching Hopkins to Ellington or Wallace like you said, but I don't think either of them have the 2TD upside that Hopkins does either (basically I am looking to overcome the games that Adams and Cobb had last night with my WR tonight).  

Looking at matchups Houst does have one of the worst Ds vs. WRs too.   Grrr..  

And (I think) the Ravens are solid against the pass. I stayed off Hopkins, but I am relying a lot on an average QB and average WRs on a less than average offense to have a good game because of the matchup. 

 

[jerseys finest]

Did not have a good week. 25 in, 10 out. have 2 lineups still to go that could cash tonight. but just barely if they do. 

threw together a lineup for tonight - thurs to try and get lucky and offset the losses. just a $2 100 person game. 

Flacco, woodhead, perine, hopkins, maclin, crowder, witten, fairbairn, redskins

tried to go against the grain here at some spots. Figured cousins will be highest owned, but with how Dallas is playing, the skins may be up early, pushing the run (why I used perine over miller)

I think tonights game could be a sloppy shootout. Hopkins is just so targeted, its hard to fade him. Same with crowder the last few weeks. 

they say Woodhead won't have a snapcount tonight, so I'm just hoping for a crap ton of dump offs to him and think he is pretty low owned too. Threw maclin in there too for the triple stack. (is wallace the better play? I dunno)

Witten because... probably low owned and the skins have solid corners, weak in the middle. Should get a lot of dump offs. I guess Beasley could be a play too, but he keeps burning me when I use him.

Fairbairn is in hopes Baltimore stifles the run game for Houston. forcing some FGs

Skins defense... again for the lower owned play. people are still giving Dallas more credit then I think they deserve. They have been horrid the last 3 weeks. 

 

[TwinTurbo]

Another Sunday, another damn near no-fer.  Just like last week, I had a higher % than the field on a lot of big scorers in gpps, just not enough in the same LUs, and mixed with too many duds like Hunt and McKissic. 

0 clue how pros have sustained success doing this, although I think I read that most of their ROIs are better for other sports. 

Some of the pros are groups using AI and big data, same as wall street pros. I also see a lot of multi-entries with the same lineup of 6-7 core players plus numerous variations of the remaining 2-3 players. That solves your Hunt/McKissic problem assuming those are the players you swap out, but it costs a lot more to mitigate the risk.

I only play GPP and my best lineups are usually contrarian where I end with players that I didn't pick in any of my preferred lineups. So basically start with your favorite lineup and then don't pick most of those players.

This week in DK, I started with Mixon/Gronk and built 40 lineups around them, mostly with Brady at QB. My best lineup scored 190 and had the Titans D. But most of my other lineups had Hilton/Stills and scored under 150. It was only my contrarian lineups with no Hilton + Titans D that saved the day.

The guy that won the DK $1.5M mini this week had a Bortles/K.Cole stack. So I guess just start with stupid #### like that and profit.

 

[KarmaPolice]

I think my problem is, I like to create game scripts in my head that make sense based off of matchups and I can do that for any team in any game. Which typically forces me to diversify my lineups a bit more than I probably should. I feel like I should be better at this than "breaking even or producing a very small profit". Maybe I'm looking at it wrong and should just grind it out in cash games, where I've been relatively successful, but I do that in the stock market and at the poker table, so this is where my "lotto ticket" plays come in to play I suppose. I just want one big win. To prove to myself that I don't actually suck at this and more importantly (and I've said this before), to prove to my wife all my time invested was worth it. 

Some of the pros are groups using AI and big data, same as wall street pros. I also see a lot of multi-entries with the same lineup of 6-7 core players plus numerous variations of the remaining 2-3 players. That solves your Hunt/McKissic problem assuming those are the players you swap out, but it costs a lot more to mitigate the risk.

@jerseys finest -

This was in the back of my head and I meant to comment on that, and TT's post reminded me of that.  I am just curious - what types of gpps are you entering each week, and if you don't mind me asking, how much $ are you playing each week? 

 

[KarmaPolice]

Looked like about 4pts separated the $10 winners from the $6K on the primetime gpp I was in.   I completely forgot to do anything with the roster, but that was probably OK.  I think the only change that might have helped would have been CJ F instead of Watson for a couple more points.   I will take the $10 gladly and that made it at least a break even weekend for me.  

 

[jerseys finest]

@jerseys finest -

This was in the back of my head and I meant to comment on that, and TT's post reminded me of that.  I am just curious - what types of gpps are you entering each week, and if you don't mind me asking, how much $ are you playing each week? 

typically each week I play in the T-M and Sunday $1 & 2 single entry. usually throw in 1-2 more dollars into the .25 bigger tourney as well. round it out with 2 or 3 entries into the big multi entry 1$ game. Putting $10 a week towards gpps. ill do 2 $5 double ups, one on thurs and one on main slate(I have hit one every week and both most weeks, basically paying for my gpps). I'll do a $2 triple up and quintuple up and usually a $1 100 person as well. I float around $25 bucks a week in entries.  as TT says below, I think I need to get my core of players and just swap out a couple guys in the .25 one with 4-8 lineups. Problem is, I just don't know what my core should be. I keep missing on 1-2 guys a week which cripples those lineups to miss or just barely cash. 

Some of the pros are groups using AI and big data, same as wall street pros. I also see a lot of multi-entries with the same lineup of 6-7 core players plus numerous variations of the remaining 2-3 players. That solves your Hunt/McKissic problem assuming those are the players you swap out, but it costs a lot more to mitigate the risk.

I only play GPP and my best lineups are usually contrarian where I end with players that I didn't pick in any of my preferred lineups. So basically start with your favorite lineup and then don't pick most of those players.

This week in DK, I started with Mixon/Gronk and built 40 lineups around them, mostly with Brady at QB. My best lineup scored 190 and had the Titans D. But most of my other lineups had Hilton/Stills and scored under 150. It was only my contrarian lineups with no Hilton + Titans D that saved the day.

The guy that won the DK $1.5M mini this week had a Bortles/K.Cole stack. So I guess just start with stupid #### like that and profit.

The winning lineups always make so much sense after the week is over. A Hundley lineup with no stack would have been great this week. Allowing you to get Julio/brown/gronk/kamara into that lineup. But who the hell would think to run Hundley out there. I think I'm gonna get really drunk before I enter my .25 gpp lineups this week. Maybe drunk me is better at this. lol. 

 

[KarmaPolice]

typically each week I play in the T-M and Sunday $1 & 2 single entry. usually throw in 1-2 more dollars into the .25 bigger tourney as well. round it out with 2 or 3 entries into the big multi entry 1$ game. Putting $10 a week towards gpps. ill do 2 $5 double ups, one on thurs and one on main slate(I have hit one every week and both most weeks, basically paying for my gpps). I'll do a $2 triple up and quintuple up and usually a $1 100 person as well. I float around $25 bucks a week in entries.  as TT says below, I think I need to get my core of players and just swap out a couple guys in the .25 one with 4-8 lineups. Problem is, I just don't know what my core should be. I keep missing on 1-2 guys a week which cripples those lineups to miss or just barely cash. 

Gotcha.  I think you are doing it right, I just think we need to be reminding ourselves just how hard placing high in a huge gpp is.  

I know something I need to do is spread out my gpps.  It's a main tip that I read and I don't do it (probably just out of laziness).  Everything I read is to max out as many SE contests as you can with your bankroll.  So instead of doing 10 in the big 190K entry gpp, I should be finding smaller SE gpps and 100 person contests.  Sure, it's fun to chase the $10K prizes in the big gpps, but I have to remind myself that just to get $25 in that gpp I would need to beat out 190K+ other entries, and in smaller gpps that's only 1200 or so and only 99 for the 100 person contests.  I should do more what you do - find 8- 9 $1SE gpps no matter the size, and then $1-2 in the 25cent gpp for my weirder ideas.   

I think that is the key and the hard part - is to find the core players and the pivots, and that is where ownership and usage is the key.  We know we have to have a couple low % guys, but that can come at any position too.  Something I need to keep in mind is that I need to get better at:  using cheaper QBs, getting less cute at RB, and looking at the volatile positions like K, Def, TE, WR for the low % owned pivots.  QB and RB usage is a little more predictive, so it makes sense to use a core couple QBs and RBs and rotate at other positions.   As much as I love Tommy B, I need to realize that paying that 8.5K on QB each week is probably nuts when they rarely hit that 30-35pt mark on FD to get that 3.5x that we want.  And if they do, am I missing out on points elsewhere because I am taking some 4K crapper to get him in?  It's probably better to take his weapons in the LU and use a cheaper QB. 

Sorry about the rambling, that was a bit of me telling myself these things and talking out loud.

 

[reel_smooth]

Been a busy last week so haven't been able to post much. Double-ups are killing me right now; cut line going up the last two weeks and keep missing by less than five points. Seems like the 'chalk' guys aren't so much at times - one week, it's the RB's, others it's the WR's.

I am so done with anything KC. I don't know what Andy Reid is doing right now, but, I'm not sure he does either. Oh well - on to week 13!