Fantasy Football - State of the Industry (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

Yeah I’ve only ever heard redraft talk. Basic ESPN leagues usually.

Exactly. 

 

[Todem]

Once I Started dynasty in 2004 I never looked back.

I never ever once played a DFS league, contest whatever. Never. I have no desire to make FF a job. Because that what DFS is to me. Just a pure gambling fix. 

I play in a pick-em pool (pick every game vs the spread) which is a fantastic time every season. We have 100 people at $150 a pop. Came in second two seasons ago and playing on house money for the next 12 seasons. You watch every game with an interest and not a fantasy interest....simply a "cover the spread interest". Totally different vibe.

I do have 2 Dynasty teams left (1 serious money Dynasty league which I have won 3 times in 15 years came in 2nd two times and 3 third place finishes) that has always been my staple. And then I have had a little $30 Dynasty league for the last 10 years that has been a fun one as well.

Playing FF since 1988. The game has changed a lot since then. It has become saturated.....and leagues are not what they used to be. Dynasty to me is where it is really at and what separates the men from the little kiddies who all want to say they have a FF team. LOL. 

When I mention Dynasty to people who tell me they play in redrafts they are like “You don’t draft every year?” No just rookies/free agents. You are a true GM and it is year round in terms of trading, draft picks etc. I love Dynasty. I would not play any other way. 

Never saw the point in DFS.....but I get the attraction. Being a gambler.....I truly get it. I just could care less for that approach to something that depends on a ton of luck....let's be real about that. So many variables to deal with week to week. I like watching my squad....my guys who I scouted and invested in....kids I drafted (love rubbing it in the owners faces when I take guys like Cam Newton in round 3 of a rookie draft...Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson at the end of round 2......Chris Johnson 1.10, Jamal Charles in round 2....Antonio Brown in round 3.....stuff like that......so satisfying. DFS can’t replace that feeling for me. And sometimes we bust on each other about some terrible trades, draft picks....etc. But that is the comrade of a league that can’t be replaced by DFS leagues. 

Anyway.......Old School I guess. But that is the way I roll with FF.

 

[Man In The Box]

I still love it all. I do a redraft league, dynasty league, keeper league that I’ve run for 24 years, and DFS. Playing ice hockey and doing fantasy football are my two favorite hobbies to help me keep my sanity. Not sure what I would do without either of them. 
 

Small sample of the youth movement, my 15 year old son has no interest in fantasy football, while my 15 year old nephew loves it. He’s my teammate in one of my leagues and he and his friends are in a bunch of leagues together. 

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I’m down go just a few leagues.  I don’t enjoy it as much as a used to, but I look at it more as “something to do” and a way to keep in touch with friends

redraft league - I think we gotta be 20+ years now, I remember winning it when Shaun Alexander had his monster year.  Don’t think I would ever give this one up, lots of great friends in this one. I think we still have the 10 original owners, we expanded to 12 awhile back and have had limited turnover 

keep 3 - another one that’s been going 20 years, mostly different group of friends.  I still enjoy this one a lot too, lots of good trash talking and sidebets 

dynasty - mostly same group as the redraft, I think this one is going into Year 5.  Not my favorite but I still stay engaged.  I’m just not as big a fan as the dynasty format as I used to be, although this one is contract based so there is a decent amount of turnover in the draft

best ball - been doing one the last few years, it’s ok

DFS - I do a weekly game with friends for $10, I’ll throw an occasional $1 or $2 into a  tourney 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I initially wanted to start a thread on DFS, but will leave it more broad to include more people.  I wanted to get the opinions of the regulars on the shark pool about daily fantasy football, but feel free to weigh in on season long.  Would like to know what you season long contest players are seeing in the industry.

Three (maybe four) years ago DFS came long like gangbusters.  I'm just not seeing the interest in it like I had in years past and noticed this sometime last year well prior to the pandemic.  The DFS forum is practically a ghost town.The week 1 thread has 12 posts.  Last year and the year before it was two pages long and five pages the year prior to that.  Personally I won money until last year when I lost a small amount.  Fan dual has pushed the rake to 19% which is insanity IMO.  In years past I would have had $200 to $500 in play most weeks.  This year it looks like I'll have 50 cents in play.  I dropped my FBG subscription down a tier because the quite honestly the tools weren't making a significant difference and the season long content was just as helpful.  Another tell tale sign to back off my playing was David Dodds leaving Fandual to play at a lower rake site.  Maybe I should follow along, but I wonder if the whales have moved to these sites.  Honestly been too lazy to follow along.

I suspect DFS will be a slowly sinking ship with only the people chasing the lottery pots remaining.  It's probably done irreversible damage to the season long formats and they'll won't experience a big bounce back.  Given our shorter attention spans, I suspect that most of these players leaving dfs will migrate to straight up game and prop betting as it becomes more legal.  The grinders will also have more success as the rakes are significantly less.  

"Why manage a season long team when you can have instant gratification putting together a weekly team?" will become

"Why put together a dozen weekly teams and wait a day for gratification when you can bet the over on Preston Williams receiving yards an win in the first half?"

Lot going on in here, great thread topic BnB. 

-People have tuned out. I'm always hanging around but this year I didn't pop my head into the SP the entire pandemic, just wasn't a priority. 

We have a lot of things locally going on here in Florida, very divided state and my day to day rituals now are very different than prior to the pandemic. We still are in Phase 2 and still unrolling things in that Phase while we sit and see fans in the stands at college football in places NOT HERE...I just think people who are not in a hyper pandemic area of the States don't seem to understand, life isn't moving here the way it is in other places. 

I can't even imagine the 13,000 that are coming for the 1st game of the Miami Dolphins at home next week...and I might have that number wrong for the amount of fans. There is so much taking priority that placing a bet on football online just hasn't been a priority. 

We managed to save the 25 year old FF League I belong to, the ONLY FF league I am even competing in and I agree with you that if I find myself wanting more, I can just turn on a DFS site and load up an account and have at it. 

I also think fans will return when things settle back in. Air travel is down 75% vs a year ago...let's start there. I'm saying that people have changed whether they wanted to or not, certain politicians made sure of it thru policy change and I'll stop there but it's not hard to connect the dots to see the ripple effects of what has happened at the local government level. They actually closed the beaches in Florida, I never would have thought I would see that in my lifetime and that was after I saw Guns n Roses  

I'm trying to not be too serious but you understand that life has changed, all things have changed permanently, we'll never go back but that doesn't mean FanDuel won't see a resurge at some point. 

You knew when it came on like gangbusters a few years ago and they were showing Millennials winning and celebrating in make believe sports bars that it wasn't going to be for long. 

Cheers BnB 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I'd like to add that I will be ever so happy to see Scott Hanson today when RedZone kicks off. All of the things that have kept me from participating in much this off season will be released when I get 6+ hours of commercial free TV and mostly no opinions other than announcers wanting to try and make a statement which if they were smart they would stick to what happens exclusively on the field. 

I don't watch one single second of any pregame show by MickeyMouse/ESPN or CBS/FOX, not a halftime snippet, not a sideline report on human interest, nothing. In fact i typically drown out the announcers and play my favorite music to listen to while I sip on beers and dance around my room hoping the Phins can win a game. 

And these kids under 25 don't even watch the NFL from the ones I meet and come across. 

 

[BassNBrew]

Forums are an odd thing. Momentum is a huge factor. The "nothing draws a crowd like a crowd" type thing. So I don't read too much at all into our DFS forums being quiet. We have a ton of subscribers that move up to the All Pro subscription to get the DFS content. We've never been down with the cheesy "lock of the week" type stuff for DFS so I don't see any reason we'd do a 180 and start promoting like that for sportsbook.

Awesome news for you on the number upgrading.  Appreciate the insight as I'm an old guy posting on a message board and certainly don't have the pulse of the current dfs crowd like you do.  My read is based on the Shark Pool still thriving and the dfs forum fading and friends I know certainly backing off the level of dfs play.

Regarding your last sentence, I was more curious if you see yourself adding a third level to the subscriber base for those interested in game and props betting as that becomes more widespread.  I could easily see that taking over dfs in popularity and a prime market that would pay for info.  The cheesy stuff was kind of a joke.  Are you considering a serious Footballguys type of approach to helping people in that segment.

Not enough. But that's changing. It'll be more a thing of "going where they are". The beauty is that's easy to do without changing what we're currently doing. I get encouraged as I've done a terrible job in the past of marketing to a younger audience. But the upside is we're kind of like the team that's thrown 3 interceptions in the first half and still leading by a field goal. Tons of room for improvement. 

Hat's off to you for recognizing this.  I fight the same thing in my industry.  The difference in age between my customer base and myself is accelerating.  It's a delicate balance between embracing change and doing the things that have made you successful for years.  It's hard to take the risks to change when your business is still doing very well and generating revenue.  I know some of the attempts I've made to chase change have failed, especially in the areas of internet marketing.  Some of the changes my competitors have made to cater to the younger generation have done a disservice to their customers and we have been googling those customers up.

 

[mphtrilogy]

I don’t like gambling and shy away from daily, but have been playing season long fantasy for over 30 years as I enjoy the GM management aspect quite a bit still, and have somehow managed to keep my league core together over the years.  It’s a year by year situation at this point though.... 

 

[fruity pebbles]

Diehards that I’ve run across in my years of playing are losing interest. Could be a covid thing but the guys I thought would never quit have disengaged a lot from where they used to be. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

Diehards that I’ve run across in my years of playing are losing interest. Could be a covid thing but the guys I thought would never quit have disengaged a lot from where they used to be. 

I think that's old people in general for all kinds of topics. 

 

[fruity pebbles]

I think that's old people in general for all kinds of topics. 

Could be but they’re not all old. I’m just seeing less diehards, atleast in the dynasty leagues I’m in. Felt bigger a few years back, could be over saturation as well. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

could be over saturation as well. 

This.

"Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded".  

God Bless Yogi.

 

[Shutout]

Thanks. I don't see that as a factor at all. Young people might have a shorter attention span, but they're not stopping group activities. I've been super encouraged at how many young people are in the space. Fantasy Football used to be a dorky old guy thing. Now every college kid you see is in two leagues. 

I see both sides of this perspective. On one hand, I clearly think the older generation which is starting to naturally phase out is being replaced but not in quality.  

Us older guys that played can, for the most part, tell you we have been playing for 20 years +, played in redraft and dynasty, had 5-10 leagues a year, etc,etc.  We all go back to the golden era when people physically got together several times during the season and not just the draft, etc.  

The younger generation is far less committed long-term.  While true there may be many of them in two or more leagues, etc, that's an extension of their nature.  With today's social media and on-demand everything, that's how everything works for them.  They saturate their presence and time into multiple social media platforms, multiple activities, video games, causes, etc, but they rarely have any staying power/attention span to any one thing for more than just a blink of an eye. 

I know some younger kids playing but I can tell they are much more casual and willing to move on as the scene shifts than we used to be. 

I think a better barometer in today's age is to see how much of the presence is a constant transition of people vs. young people who may be coming in and actually staying for more than a couple of years.

 FF and all its new derivities are very different in today's world and I don't honestly think people, for many different reasons, are willing to endure it like we once were.  There are just too many things vying for our attention and money. 

In years past I would have easily said, if asked, that I'll play forever and it will always have it's place.  But as the rules tweak and big business and big social opinions weave their way into things as life changes, suddenly, I'm happy to watch and maybe even play, but I certainly don't bat an eye when I think I would rather be with friends at dinner on a Sunday than watching my FF team and games. I know not everyone is like that but the underlying point is that if things can change so much for me, an older person with a more traditional mindset, I'm fairly sure it will with younger people who tend to have grown up in a world where everything is much more instantaneous and fleeting.  

I'm sure it will always have it's place but I think once you step away from forums like these where "our kind" of FF people are drawn in, you see far less of it out in the regular world where you just find yourself talking to a bunch of young guys at work or something and the conversations are about social media apps, activities that have nothing to do with sports (any of them, not just football), etc. I personally know more young people these days that will talk my head off about kayaks and tiny houses before they could tell me where Chase Young got drafted.  

 

[AndrewClark]

Man I know I'm in the minority and part of the wrong crowd to have this opinion but I actually think DFS will only grow and soon out shine fantasy football. I like the fact, especially during a season of uncertainty that you get a fresh start every week. I can play weekly with my same fantasy friends of 20 years and not worry about a player or half my team going down w an injury or covid. There's no terribly trade controversies, etc. 

I love DFS, this will be my 2nd year not doing a fantasy league and only participating in DFS, weekly, w the same 15 other guys I've been playing with for 20 years. 

 

[fruity pebbles]

For the diehards I can only speak from my own experience, I don’t personally know their reasoning for being less interested. I’ve been playing largely nonstop since the mid 80s. Obviously started with redraft but went to solely dynasty 15 or so years ago. Nearing 50 now and I just don’t care as much but even the diehards I know in their mid to late 30s aren’t eating and sleeping fantasy anymore either. The game itself has changed to an almost unwatchable product for me. Last season I watched a handful of prime time games. This year I don’t even think I’ll do that. If my teams weren’t so good and such money makers, I would have left before the season started. The leagues I’m in are dead compared to what they were even 2-3 years ago. And these are $250 entry, 32 teams, so the pot is there. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

The leagues I’m in are dead compared to what they were even 2-3 years ago. And these are $250 entry, 32 teams, so the pot is there. 

Understood. That's a super hardcore way to play. Those types of leagues are definitely fading in popularity. What I'm saying is those leagues fading doesn't mean fantasy football is fading.

To me, that's like saying the high end camera shop industry is down so now people aren't interested in photography. 

 

[leave a whisper]

FF is a lot like chili --- everyone likes their kind/ type and have a few kinds they'd rather not consume.

year 26 for me in a 35 man roster no waiver wire league - I love it (so much info who needs a WW? draft day is awesome!)

I also play in a total points league still -- love it

......  PPR is the devil (please go away forever!!) -- same with multiple flex spots  IMHO ........  I do enjoy dynasty, super-flex, & best ball leagues though ..........  I pass on DFS  

 

[Denver724]

I only play in Dynasty leagues. Filling orphans this year has been a struggle for a few of my commissioners. In fact, I belong to a GroupMe chat for orphans and there were leagues still trying to be filled yesterday. The teams are horrible. Commish's are probably giving them away for free for 2020 with some kind of payment due for 2021.

I had a couple leagues yesterday where my opponent didn't even submit a lineup.

I am interested to see the ratings for yesterday's games. I live on the west coast and watched the morning games. Didn't watch much of the afternoon games. I'll be honest. Not that into FB this year like in previous years. 

 

[Shutout]

 The leagues I’m in are dead compared to what they were even 2-3 years ago. And these are $250 entry, 32 teams, so the pot is there. 

This is what I notice most (and maybe what makes me have an exagerrated view of things if I do).  In what used one very active leagues, it now looks like very casual interest.  You'd think bots are just submitting lineups these days.  Having the experience of how it used to be,. She that's what makes me think it's worse than it actually is. Either that or it IS the way it's trending.  Joe Bryant made an analogy like the high end camera industry is down but it doesn't mean interest in photography is.  That's a good analogy but it's hard to say what that means.  Maybe it is a sign things are healthier than what is diehards want to set the standard as. But it may also mean exactly what he said in that the high quality stuff is out the door and only the casual, passing interest is there.  

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

I got tired of the countless stories of monte carlo simulations, AI and statistical models being used by the "professionals" to win.  I'd rather play lotto.

DFS is still illegal in my state so I completely tuned it out. But even with workarounds or if it was made legal tomorrow, I lost some trust in the major sites when the stories of in-house staff with access to all the data lineups were winning the pools. I am sure some has changed since, maybe not. Either way have never been interested.

Been in the same season-long redraft league with buddies from college for over 25 years. I like to think that I'm good at FF -- it's a big and competitive league where I've consistently been able to win, place, or show more often than not. Was super passionate about FF and invested a lot of time and energy in research and prep each week to maintain an edge.

But this is the first year where I just don't care as much. Way too many things going with so much more importance, wanting to focus time with things that matter more, football and fantasy just don't mean as much.

I think those that mentioned the continued greed of the league and pro sports are also on to something. So much inaction and wrong moves by the NFL to address real issues -- from injury to social injustice -- and so many billions made off pro sports that increasingly inaccessible to the public given ticket prices, just seems that there are way more important things to focus time, energy, and money on today.

Also getting less and less enjoyment from the community -- even these boards, if I'm honest, are less and less enjoyable, devolving way more frequently into back and forths instead of helpful dialogues and insight. I mean, it's an internet forum -- that tends to happen and always has. The polarization and pot stirring just seems worse this year, and to be fair, it's here and everywhere. I just feel like wading less and less into it just to find fewer and fewer nuggets of insight.

 

[spodog]

Didn't watch much of the afternoon games. I'll be honest. Not that into FB this year like in previous years. 

Welcome to 2020

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

DFS is alive and well.  It’s not having exponential growth the way it was in 2015 when the big sites were spending nine figures on advertising but that’s to be expected.  It’s matured but it’s not going away.  For whatever reason this place was never really a go-to for DFS discussion, there are other places on the internet where the community is still going strong.  

And yeah, as sports betting rolls out nationwide it will become more and more of the focus.  And then as people discover in-play betting that will be even more.  It’s just the way things are going.  Why play season long when you can play DFS -> why play DFS when you can bet on games -> why bet on games when you can bet on the outcome of the next play…

 

[Steve Tasker]

I would be very curious to see detailed stats on FF / DFS / "regular gambling" participation among football viewers, broken down by age, demographics, gender, and so on.  People playing for money, not playing for money, do people who consume more NFL content play more of these games, etc.  Though I'm not sure that data exists.

 

[The Finist]

What dfs platform has the lowest rake?

 

[GroveDiesel]

I would be very curious to see detailed stats on FF / DFS / "regular gambling" participation among football viewers, broken down by age, demographics, gender, and so on.  People playing for money, not playing for money, do people who consume more NFL content play more of these games, etc.  Though I'm not sure that data exists.

Oh I’m sure it exists. But my guess is it’s not going to be made public by the folks who have gathered that data. That would seem to be very valuable info to have.

 

[Manster]

From DFS to Dynasty......something for everyone!  

I will say that over the years I went on a "progression and regression" as in once I discovered FF, I wanted to play in like 6 leagues and draft all the time, etc......I even played in a dynasty league for a minute.

I realized dynasty is not for me......I don't want to follow it much in the off-season and I like preparing for a redraft every year....to each their own

I'm lucky in that my two leagues are local, and I know every person in both of them....live drafts.....we are all invested.  We have hours long meetings yearly about the state of things, rule changes, etc.....we get together for the Super Bowl and waivers....we have NFL playoffs off shoots for both leagues that are live drafts as well.

This keeps it fun and interesting for me.....I see how the faceless leagues over a computer kind of fade away over the years......I've been a part of those actually......it's just not the same, imo.

I also do a bit of DFS on draft kings for fun.

Back in the day, I used to play sportsaction every week, and when I lived in NV I had a sports book like 3 minutes from my house......I do enjoy doing a parlay.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I would be very curious to see detailed stats on FF / DFS / "regular gambling" participation among football viewers, broken down by age, demographics, gender, and so on.  People playing for money, not playing for money, do people who consume more NFL content play more of these games, etc.  Though I'm not sure that data exists.

The data exists but as Grove pointed out no one's going to just give it away.  Eilers & Krejcik will probably sell it to you for a few grand.  On the other hand, how specific  do you want to get?  Because the rough answers to most of your questions are pretty obvious/accessible.  ~50 million people play fantasy football.  ~10 million have ever played DFS, and a fraction of that are still currently active.  (Legal) sports betting is smaller still but that's because it's only in a few states.  It will quickly overtake DFS as it spreads nationwide.  It's largely a white male hobby, DFS skews younger, etc.  People who play for money consume a lot more content, and more inclined to pay for RedZone, etc. 

 

[belljr]

I didn't check my matchup until this morning

 

[Steve Tasker]

The data exists but as Grove pointed out no one's going to just give it away.  Eilers & Krejcik will probably sell it to you for a few grand.  On the other hand, how specific  do you want to get?  Because the rough answers to most of your questions are pretty obvious/accessible.  ~50 million people play fantasy football.  ~10 million have ever played DFS, and a fraction of that are still currently active.  (Legal) sports betting is smaller still but that's because it's only in a few states.  It will quickly overtake DFS as it spreads nationwide.  It's largely a white male hobby, DFS skews younger, etc.  People who play for money consume a lot more content, and more inclined to pay for RedZone, etc. 

Obviously I meant "not freely available" when I said "doesn't exist".  I'm sure the big $$ in fantasy sports, casinos, etc., all have this info.  I just meant for my own perusal.