LHUCKS
Footballguy
Part I Quarterbacks conjured up some great discussion, let's take a look at the runningback rankings. (FBG Sortable Rankings)
Assumptions: 12 team league, all team owners are experts
Note: Some RBs such as Julius Jones(Hambrick Cut) and Barlow(Rattay injury) were purposely not considered for this thread since the rankings were based on information at the beginning of the month.
Running Backs
OVERRATED
1) Clinton Portis #5 - You've got four proven All-Pros in proven systems ranked lower than Portis: Lewis, Alexander, Williams and Edge. Portis is in a new system with a new QB and with a new coach. Too many variables for my taste. Denver is runningback Nirvana, Washington might be and then again it might not be...I'd rather have a proven commodity that high in the draft. He could explode or he could bust. He needs to explode to justify going #5 overall in drafts...I'll play the odds.
Expert Rankings Observations:
Nice Job: Wimer...wow #12 is pretty low, maybe too low, but I can tell we have the same mindset.
Stretching: Will Grant...#2 huh? Are you the President of the Joe Gibbs fan club?
2) Brian Westbrook #22 - Westbrook looks great when he plays, but he strikes me as brittle and lacks the elusiveness IMO to be a starting runningback in the NFL for an entire season. I'm betting this is RBBC by mid-season at the latest...maybe as early as week 1. If I'm drafting a guy as my RB #2, I want a guy that will be there for me in the playoffs...Westbrook doesn't strike me as that guy. There are a number of runningbacks ranked lower than him that I'd rather have.
Expert Rankings Observations:
Nice Job: Well I can't say that I'd leave him off the board entirely(Will Grant), but I do agree with a 26-27 ranking: Tremblay, Rudnicki, Messageboard(hee haw)
Stretching: A handful have him at #17 suggesting he's nearly a solid #2 - Wimer, Gray, Smith, Dowling
3) Stephen Davis #15 - I understand that his downfall has been predicted since the beginning of man...but this is more of a vote of confidence for Mr. Foster. IMO Foster is one of the top six or seven runningbacks in the league. At the very least this situation becomes a committee...you heard it here first. A committee situation doesn't warrant a #15 ranking. I may be going out on a limb to an extent, but I'm going with the superior talent in this instance, which admittedly doesn't always win out.
Expert Rankings Observations:
Nice Job: Gray, Wood - I have him even lower than #19.
Stretching: Shick...meet my friend Deshaun Foster(he's Pac-10 for starters which automatically screams STUD)
UNDERRATED
*Julius Jones' value has obviously gone up, so his relative value is hard to determine at the time of this analysis, thus he will not be included but would definitely be considered underrated if his current #28 ranking held IMO...which it probably wont.
1) DeShaun Foster #36 - Well if I'm going to give Stephen the Overrated tag, I'm surely going to have to give DeShaun the underrated tag. Definitely not a RB#2, but #36 would put him at the end of the #3's...I don't think so. Mr. Foster is one of the most talented RBs in the league, and the ranking of #36 will be scoffed at within the first half of the NFL season...mark my words.
Expert Rankings Observations:
Nice Job: Me and only Me, the highest ranking for Foster is #31...I have him higher...not much, but higher. Apparently I'm the only one who has seen this kid run.
Stretching: Apparently half of the experts don't believe Mr. Foster is even worthy of top 40 recognition.
2) Kevin Jones #28- Well in my QB critique I had Harrington as a sleeper, for many of the same reasons I think Jones will be as well. I'm not huge on taking rookies in re-drafts, but this situation reeks of sleeper: 1) Zero RB competition 2) 1st round Talent 3) Proven Offensive System 4) Nice SOS DIF...even Bryson almost looked like a pro in this offense in '03. Jones should shine.
Expert Rankings Observations:
Nice Job: Will Grant - Exactly where I have him.(Wow Shick, #14...talk about wrecking the standard deviation...I like it though)
Stretching: Wimer at #34...dude, Wayne Fontes isn't in Detroit anymore.
3) Edgerrin James #8 - This may turn some heads but I like Edge more than about four backs ranked ahead of him. 1) He's healthier than he has been in years 2) physically should be in his prime 3) Offense that has zero chance of stalling (barring Peyton injury) I see very little risk here...and we all know the upside.
Expert Rankings Observations:
Nice Job - Chris Smith, #5 looks familiar
Stretching - Will Grant, I'm not seeing #11. Faulk and Taylor pose far greater risks IMO.
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For the record: I found that the runningback rankings were much more in tune with my rankings than were the QBs...which is surprising given the RBBC situations.
Ok fellas, let's hear it.
Assumptions: 12 team league, all team owners are experts
Note: Some RBs such as Julius Jones(Hambrick Cut) and Barlow(Rattay injury) were purposely not considered for this thread since the rankings were based on information at the beginning of the month.
Running Backs
OVERRATED
1) Clinton Portis #5 - You've got four proven All-Pros in proven systems ranked lower than Portis: Lewis, Alexander, Williams and Edge. Portis is in a new system with a new QB and with a new coach. Too many variables for my taste. Denver is runningback Nirvana, Washington might be and then again it might not be...I'd rather have a proven commodity that high in the draft. He could explode or he could bust. He needs to explode to justify going #5 overall in drafts...I'll play the odds.
Expert Rankings Observations:
Nice Job: Wimer...wow #12 is pretty low, maybe too low, but I can tell we have the same mindset.
Stretching: Will Grant...#2 huh? Are you the President of the Joe Gibbs fan club?
2) Brian Westbrook #22 - Westbrook looks great when he plays, but he strikes me as brittle and lacks the elusiveness IMO to be a starting runningback in the NFL for an entire season. I'm betting this is RBBC by mid-season at the latest...maybe as early as week 1. If I'm drafting a guy as my RB #2, I want a guy that will be there for me in the playoffs...Westbrook doesn't strike me as that guy. There are a number of runningbacks ranked lower than him that I'd rather have.
Expert Rankings Observations:
Nice Job: Well I can't say that I'd leave him off the board entirely(Will Grant), but I do agree with a 26-27 ranking: Tremblay, Rudnicki, Messageboard(hee haw)
Stretching: A handful have him at #17 suggesting he's nearly a solid #2 - Wimer, Gray, Smith, Dowling
3) Stephen Davis #15 - I understand that his downfall has been predicted since the beginning of man...but this is more of a vote of confidence for Mr. Foster. IMO Foster is one of the top six or seven runningbacks in the league. At the very least this situation becomes a committee...you heard it here first. A committee situation doesn't warrant a #15 ranking. I may be going out on a limb to an extent, but I'm going with the superior talent in this instance, which admittedly doesn't always win out.
Expert Rankings Observations:
Nice Job: Gray, Wood - I have him even lower than #19.
Stretching: Shick...meet my friend Deshaun Foster(he's Pac-10 for starters which automatically screams STUD)
UNDERRATED
*Julius Jones' value has obviously gone up, so his relative value is hard to determine at the time of this analysis, thus he will not be included but would definitely be considered underrated if his current #28 ranking held IMO...which it probably wont.
1) DeShaun Foster #36 - Well if I'm going to give Stephen the Overrated tag, I'm surely going to have to give DeShaun the underrated tag. Definitely not a RB#2, but #36 would put him at the end of the #3's...I don't think so. Mr. Foster is one of the most talented RBs in the league, and the ranking of #36 will be scoffed at within the first half of the NFL season...mark my words.
Expert Rankings Observations:
Nice Job: Me and only Me, the highest ranking for Foster is #31...I have him higher...not much, but higher. Apparently I'm the only one who has seen this kid run.
Stretching: Apparently half of the experts don't believe Mr. Foster is even worthy of top 40 recognition.
2) Kevin Jones #28- Well in my QB critique I had Harrington as a sleeper, for many of the same reasons I think Jones will be as well. I'm not huge on taking rookies in re-drafts, but this situation reeks of sleeper: 1) Zero RB competition 2) 1st round Talent 3) Proven Offensive System 4) Nice SOS DIF...even Bryson almost looked like a pro in this offense in '03. Jones should shine.
Expert Rankings Observations:
Nice Job: Will Grant - Exactly where I have him.(Wow Shick, #14...talk about wrecking the standard deviation...I like it though)
Stretching: Wimer at #34...dude, Wayne Fontes isn't in Detroit anymore.
3) Edgerrin James #8 - This may turn some heads but I like Edge more than about four backs ranked ahead of him. 1) He's healthier than he has been in years 2) physically should be in his prime 3) Offense that has zero chance of stalling (barring Peyton injury) I see very little risk here...and we all know the upside.
Expert Rankings Observations:
Nice Job - Chris Smith, #5 looks familiar
Stretching - Will Grant, I'm not seeing #11. Faulk and Taylor pose far greater risks IMO.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For the record: I found that the runningback rankings were much more in tune with my rankings than were the QBs...which is surprising given the RBBC situations.
Ok fellas, let's hear it.
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