FBG Expert Sortable Rankings Critique (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

Part I Quarterbacks conjured up some great discussion, let's take a look at the runningback rankings. (FBG Sortable Rankings)

Assumptions: 12 team league, all team owners are experts

Note: Some RBs such as Julius Jones(Hambrick Cut) and Barlow(Rattay injury) were purposely not considered for this thread since the rankings were based on information at the beginning of the month.

Running Backs

OVERRATED

1) Clinton Portis #5 - You've got four proven All-Pros in proven systems ranked lower than Portis: Lewis, Alexander, Williams and Edge. Portis is in a new system with a new QB and with a new coach. Too many variables for my taste. Denver is runningback Nirvana, Washington might be and then again it might not be...I'd rather have a proven commodity that high in the draft. He could explode or he could bust. He needs to explode to justify going #5 overall in drafts...I'll play the odds.

Expert Rankings Observations:

Nice Job: Wimer...wow #12 is pretty low, maybe too low, but I can tell we have the same mindset.

Stretching: Will Grant...#2 huh? Are you the President of the Joe Gibbs fan club?



2) Brian Westbrook #22 - Westbrook looks great when he plays, but he strikes me as brittle and lacks the elusiveness IMO to be a starting runningback in the NFL for an entire season. I'm betting this is RBBC by mid-season at the latest...maybe as early as week 1. If I'm drafting a guy as my RB #2, I want a guy that will be there for me in the playoffs...Westbrook doesn't strike me as that guy. There are a number of runningbacks ranked lower than him that I'd rather have.

Expert Rankings Observations:

Nice Job: Well I can't say that I'd leave him off the board entirely(Will Grant), but I do agree with a 26-27 ranking: Tremblay, Rudnicki, Messageboard(hee haw)

Stretching: A handful have him at #17 suggesting he's nearly a solid #2 - Wimer, Gray, Smith, Dowling

3) Stephen Davis #15 - I understand that his downfall has been predicted since the beginning of man...but this is more of a vote of confidence for Mr. Foster. IMO Foster is one of the top six or seven runningbacks in the league. At the very least this situation becomes a committee...you heard it here first. A committee situation doesn't warrant a #15 ranking. I may be going out on a limb to an extent, but I'm going with the superior talent in this instance, which admittedly doesn't always win out.

Expert Rankings Observations:

Nice Job: Gray, Wood - I have him even lower than #19.

Stretching: Shick...meet my friend Deshaun Foster(he's Pac-10 for starters which automatically screams STUD)

UNDERRATED

*Julius Jones' value has obviously gone up, so his relative value is hard to determine at the time of this analysis, thus he will not be included but would definitely be considered underrated if his current #28 ranking held IMO...which it probably wont.

1) DeShaun Foster #36 - Well if I'm going to give Stephen the Overrated tag, I'm surely going to have to give DeShaun the underrated tag. Definitely not a RB#2, but #36 would put him at the end of the #3's...I don't think so. Mr. Foster is one of the most talented RBs in the league, and the ranking of #36 will be scoffed at within the first half of the NFL season...mark my words.

Expert Rankings Observations:

Nice Job: Me and only Me, the highest ranking for Foster is #31...I have him higher...not much, but higher. Apparently I'm the only one who has seen this kid run.

Stretching: Apparently half of the experts don't believe Mr. Foster is even worthy of top 40 recognition.

2) Kevin Jones #28- Well in my QB critique I had Harrington as a sleeper, for many of the same reasons I think Jones will be as well. I'm not huge on taking rookies in re-drafts, but this situation reeks of sleeper: 1) Zero RB competition 2) 1st round Talent 3) Proven Offensive System 4) Nice SOS DIF...even Bryson almost looked like a pro in this offense in '03. Jones should shine.

Expert Rankings Observations:

Nice Job: Will Grant - Exactly where I have him.(Wow Shick, #14...talk about wrecking the standard deviation...I like it though)

Stretching: Wimer at #34...dude, Wayne Fontes isn't in Detroit anymore.

3) Edgerrin James #8 - This may turn some heads but I like Edge more than about four backs ranked ahead of him. 1) He's healthier than he has been in years 2) physically should be in his prime 3) Offense that has zero chance of stalling (barring Peyton injury) I see very little risk here...and we all know the upside.

Expert Rankings Observations:

Nice Job - Chris Smith, #5 looks familiar

Stretching - Will Grant, I'm not seeing #11. Faulk and Taylor pose far greater risks IMO.

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For the record: I found that the runningback rankings were much more in tune with my rankings than were the QBs...which is surprising given the RBBC situations.

Ok fellas, let's hear it.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

1) Clinton Portis - You've got four proven All-Pros in proven systems ranked lower than Portis: Lewis, Alexander, Williams and Edge.  Portis is in a new system with a new QB and with a new coach.  Too many variables for my taste.  Denver is runningback Nirvana, Washington might be and then again it might not be...I'd rather have a proven commodity that high in the draft.  He could explode or he could bust.  He needs to explode to justify going #5 overall in drafts...I'll play the odds.

I think Portis is underrated at #5. I couldn't bring myself to draft him ahead of LT or Priest, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Portis finishes the year as the #1 RB. He's crazy talented, and I like his situation. I'd like it better if he were staying in Denver (in which case I would rank him #1), but he'll still get plenty of opportunities with the Redskins as well.So there's no misunderstanding, I'm not expecting to repeat his per-game productivity from 2003. If he were staying in Denver, I'd expect about a 10%-15% drop-off. Since he's moving to Washington, I'd expect about a 25% drop-off. But that's still good enough to make him my #3 RB.

2) Brian Westbrook - Westbrook looks great when he plays, but he strikes me as brittle and lacks the elusiveness IMO to be a starting runningback in the NFL for an entire season.  I'm betting this is RBBC by mid-season at the latest...maybe as early as week 1.  If I'm drafting a guy as my RB #2, I want a guy that will be there for me in the playoffs...Westbrook doesn't strike me as that guy.  There are a number of runningbacks ranked lower than him that I'd rather have.

Westbrook's hard to rank right now because it's not clear how many carries Buckhalter will get. That's one reason I'm not high on Westbrook. The other is that I don't think he'll have anywhere near as many TDs/carry next year; I think last year was kind of flukey in that respect.

3)  Stephen Davis - I understand that his downfall has been predicted since the beginning of man...but this is more of a vote of confidence for Mr. Foster.  IMO Foster is one of the top six or seven runningbacks in the league.  At the very least this situation becomes a committee...you heard it here first.  A committee situation doesn't warrant a #15 ranking.  I may be going out on a limb to an extent, but I'm going with the superior talent in this instance, which admittedly doesn't always win out.

Davis is in that mid-range of RBs where there's not a lot of difference between him and the guys just above him or just below him. I think he could rank anywhere from #13 to #21 without any huge difference in projected points.

1) DeShaun Foster - Well if I'm going to give Stephen the Overrated tag, I'm surely going to have to give DeShaun the underrated tag.  Definitely not a RB#2, but #36 would put him at the end of the #3's...I don't think so.  Mr. Foster is one of the most talented RBs in the league, and the ranking of #36 will be scoffed at within the first half of the NFL season...mark my words.

Foster only has fantasy value if Davis gets hurt. He may get incrementally more carries this year than he did last year, but even in the best-case RBBC scenario you wouldn't want to have to insert him into your line-up. Foster will be a nice handcuff candidate to Davis (unless you really do think it will be RBBC, in which case you wouldn't want either one of them), but he's not someone you can count on to produce.

2) Kevin Jones - Well in my QB critique I had Harrington as a sleeper, for many of the same reasons I think Jones will be as well.  I'm not huge on taking rookies in re-drafts, but this situation reeks of sleeper:  1) Zero RB competition 2) 1st round Talent 3) Proven Offensive System 4) Nice SOS DIF...even Bryson almost looked like a pro in this offense in '03.   Jones should shine.

You might be right on this one. It's hard for me to get excited about any Detroit Lion RB right now, but Jones has some good things going for him. I'll probably move him up in my next set of rankings.

3) Edgerrin James - This may turn some heads but I like Edge more than about four backs ranked ahead of him.  1) He's healthier than he has been in years 2) physically should be in his prime 3) Offense that has zero chance of stalling (barring Peyton injury)  I see very little risk here...and we all know the upside.

I like Edgerrin James a lot this year. He's just got some really tough competition up there in the top 10. I can't at all see moving him ahead of LT, Priest, Clinton Portis, Ahman Green, Deuce McAllister, or Jamal Lewis, and for right now I like Ricky Williams better as well . . . although I could conceive of moving him ahead of Ricky.

 

[Doug Drinen]

3) Edgerrin James ... 1) He's healthier than he has been in years...

Just like he was last year. Just like Eddie George was each of the last four years.Sorry to nitpick an otherwise fine post (and not add any value myself), but when great running backs turn into merely good ones, this is always what you hear in the next May.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

3) Edgerrin James ... 1) He's healthier than he has been in years...

Just like he was last year. Just like Eddie George was each of the last four years.Sorry to nitpick an otherwise fine post (and not add any value myself), but when great running backs turn into merely good ones, this is always what you hear in the next May.

 

[Jason Wood]

3) Edgerrin James ... 1) He's healthier than he has been in years...

Just like he was last year. Just like Eddie George was each of the last four years.Sorry to nitpick an otherwise fine post (and not add any value myself), but when great running backs turn into merely good ones, this is always what you hear in the next May.

True indeed. But to speak on Edge specifically, the guy finished 10th while playing 13 games, that's excellent production overall and on a PPG basis. I view him as a safer bet than Faulk this year, and could live with him as my RB1 if I waited until the 2nd round to pick a RB.

 

[amnesiac]

I like these rankings. I was one of the people who said Foster was done after the injury, but now I'm on the bandwagon. I see Davis' carries tailing off towards the middle season/end of the year, eventually becoming the COP to Foster.(edit for cleanliness)

 

[rzrback77]

My comment is that I am shocked at the general agreement in the rankings (below the top ten - I expected the agreement at the top). I am really struggling with my rankings of those below the top ten. But, across the board, the rankings of those in that group is fairly uniform.Take new SF starter Barlow, 6 at 11, 3 at 12, 2 at 13, 2 at 16, and one at 30. I would have expected out of 14 that someone would have thought top ten as much as this guy has been pimped on the board over the years AND more than one to drop him really low.The rankings for most in the second ten seem to be similar and since I am having trouble placing this order, I thought that others would as well.

 

[Jason Wood]

My comment is that I am shocked at the general agreement in the rankings (below the top ten - I expected the agreement at the top). I am really struggling with my rankings of those below the top ten. But, across the board, the rankings of those in that group is fairly uniform.Take new SF starter Barlow, 6 at 11, 3 at 12, 2 at 13, 2 at 16, and one at 30. I would have expected out of 14 that someone would have thought top ten as much as this guy has been pimped on the board over the years AND more than one to drop him really low.The rankings for most in the second ten seem to be similar and since I am having trouble placing this order, I thought that others would as well.

I'm a believer in Barlow, and think that the San Fran offensive line actually should be a reasonable run blocking unit. That said, it was tough for me to project Barlow as a top 10 back when I don't see the Niners being better than a 6 win club. History doesn't smile kindly on RBs on clubs with records that poorly. I think Barlow and that line are good enough that he can be one of the two or three RBs from sub .500 teams to crack the top 12, but I just can't get any more confident than that with major question marks at QB, WR, TE, O-line and the coaching staff.

 

[wadegarrett]

Still tough to weigh options in mid-May but some nice points.

Edge's last seven games last year are enough for me to put him in my top 5. Would take him ahead of Portis right now.

As of right now I wouldn't go near the Davis/Foster situation unless it's possible to handcuff. The problem there is someone will take a chance on Foster early so handcuffing is going to be tough to pull off.

Westbrook IMO is TBBC and I'd only consider him as a RB3. Numbers last year were too sporadic to warrant any other consideration right now.

Kevin Jones would be a reach as a RB2 right now. Will be interesting to watch the Lions TC this year to see how everyone is playing together.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

3) Edgerrin James ... 1) He's healthier than he has been in years...

Just like he was last year. Just like Eddie George was each of the last four years.Sorry to nitpick an otherwise fine post (and not add any value myself), but when great running backs turn into merely good ones, this is always what you hear in the next May.

Agreed, I hear this every year, but they're not suckering me in.Also, Portis at 5 is definately not overrated. I mean, he has room for improvement there. If he's healthy 16 games under Gibbs, he'll be top 5.

 

[Tick]

Regarding Kevin Jones, I see RBBC. The Lions really want to see what Pinner can do, Bryson is still a good third-down back, and Mooch loves RBBC.

Regarding Foster, I think you're overrating his showing last year wildly. I know it was his first year coming back from a knee injury, so I expect that he's better than he showed, but he really didn't get it done if you look at the season as a whole. Yeah, he had some breakaway runs that were exciting, but the guy didn't get the consistent yards you need play to play. On second and seven, he doesn't get you the four yards you need.

I know I'll catch crap for this link, but Football Outsiders sees how RBs did on every play, using a formula that rewards a player for getting 40% of the yards to go on first down, 60% of the yards to go on second down, and 100% of the yards to go on third or fourth down, with bonuses and penalties for big runs, TDs, turnovers, negative rushes, etc. The also do some other calculations where they adjust for opponent strength and stuff. Foster rates way down at the bottom with this system, among the likes of Zereoue, Mack, KFaulk, and Bettis.

I know stats can be deceptive at times, and that Foster will almost certainly be better this season than last after another year recovering from the injury, but I just don't think you can say he'll be so good based on what he did last season. For reference, Stephen Davis finished showed much better in these measures than Foster did.

Still, I was looking forward to this post and thought it was good. Keep 'em coming, LHUCKS.

 

[AB in DC]

DeShaun Foster is chronically overrated on this board. Check out the stats at Football Outsiders. They rate him the third-worst RB in the league last year (of those with 75+ carries)

 

[Colin Dowling]

Stretching: A handful have him at #17 suggesting he's nearly a solid #2 - Wimer, Gray, Smith, Dowling

Well, this criticism of my rankings is very fair and Westbrook may slide down a bit in future editions. I happen to really like his explosiveness and I like that he returns kicks. Obviously, return yards aren't part of this scoing system so I probably shouldn't have bumped him up for that. I think the RBBC will most certainly be in affect in Philly, but I'm okay with that. Westbrook is put in position to make plays, and I like that.Where will he settle in my rankings as we get closer to the season? Lower then 17 probably, but I know I'd be ecstatic to have him as RB3/Flex, so I won't have him much past 24...COlin

 

[Colin Dowling]

DeShaun Foster is chronically overrated on this board. Check out the stats at Football Outsiders. They rate him the third-worst RB in the league last year (of those with 75+ carries)

Are you sure you want to use a complex rankings system that has Rock Cartwright ranked 18th?Colin

 

[David Yudkin]

My comment is that I am shocked at the general agreement in the rankings (below the top ten - I expected the agreement at the top). I am really struggling with my rankings of those below the top ten. But, across the board, the rankings of those in that group is fairly uniform.

I didn't get a chance to submit my rankings the first go round (was on vacation). Mine will be a little different than the others, so we are all not just sheep following the flock.

 

[AB in DC]

DeShaun Foster is chronically overrated on this board. Check out the stats at Football Outsiders. They rate him the third-worst RB in the league last year (of those with 75+ carries)

Are you sure you want to use a complex rankings system that has Rock Cartwright ranked 18th?Colin

If that's the only strange-looking ranking on the list, then heck yeah. Just because it's complicated doesn't mean it's bad. The one thing these stats do, that no one else does, is stop giving RBs credit for an 8 yard draw play on 3rd and 12. That alone makes it useful when looking at 3rd down backs like Foster, whose stats are going to be completely distorted based on the game situations when he was used.

 

[LHUCKS]

3) Edgerrin James ... 1) He's healthier than he has been in years...

Just like he was last year. Just like Eddie George was each of the last four years.Sorry to nitpick an otherwise fine post (and not add any value myself), but when great running backs turn into merely good ones, this is always what you hear in the next May.

No way...the consensus was not nearly as optimistic about Edge this time of year as it is now. Furthermore, Edge is another year removed from his season ending injury.Edge will be top 5 again...and should be taken before Portis

 

[Burning Sensation]

but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Portis finishes the year as the #1 RB.

It wouldnt suprise me either, it also wouldnt suprise me if he finished outside the top 10-15 RB's. Thats is why i would not take Portis in the top 5, i dont like risks with that high of a pick.

 

[Jason Wood]

DeShaun Foster is chronically overrated on this board. Check out the stats at Football Outsiders. They rate him the third-worst RB in the league last year (of those with 75+ carries)

Are you sure you want to use a complex rankings system that has Rock Cartwright ranked 18th?Colin

If that's the only strange-looking ranking on the list, then heck yeah. Just because it's complicated doesn't mean it's bad. The one thing these stats do, that no one else does, is stop giving RBs credit for an 8 yard draw play on 3rd and 12. That alone makes it useful when looking at 3rd down backs like Foster, whose stats are going to be completely distorted based on the game situations when he was used.

An 8 yard draw play on 3rd and 12 is as valuable as an 8 yard draw play on 3rd and 7 in fantasy football last time I checked.I would be livid to have Aaron Brooks as my team's real NFL QB, but he puts up solid fantasy points. Daunte Culpepper is the consensus top fantasy QB again, yet I'm sure many of us would rather have Peyton running our real team. I like some of the stuff Football Outsiders does, but in the context of the game we play, it's not very useful (at least not that particular list).

 

[LHUCKS]

DeShaun Foster is chronically overrated on this board. Check out the stats at Football Outsiders. They rate him the third-worst RB in the league last year (of those with 75+ carries)

Are you sure you want to use a complex rankings system that has Rock Cartwright ranked 18th?Colin

If that's the only strange-looking ranking on the list, then heck yeah. Just because it's complicated doesn't mean it's bad. The one thing these stats do, that no one else does, is stop giving RBs credit for an 8 yard draw play on 3rd and 12. That alone makes it useful when looking at 3rd down backs like Foster, whose stats are going to be completely distorted based on the game situations when he was used.

Uhmmm...how about Foster in the playoffs. He wasn't used just as a 3rd down back then.

 

[LHUCKS]

but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Portis finishes the year as the #1 RB.

It wouldnt suprise me either, it also wouldnt suprise me if he finished outside the top 10-15 RB's. Thats is why i would not take Portis in the top 5, i dont like risks with that high of a pick.

Exactly. He is the Michael Vick of the RBs.What I don't understand is how everybody can pretend to know how successful Gibbs' offensive scheme will be. a) Nobody really knows what the scheme will be: will it even work? how will Portis be used?b) Brunnel is learning a system, which means the offense may not click until midseason or later...if at all. c) Portis will need to adjust to a new offense...Denver is very unique. I'm not so sure Portis is going to have the running room he had in Denver.Way too many variables here to justify taking him #5 overall. Is he a talent yes. Have there been talented runningbacks that don't finish in the top 10 in FF scoring...every year.Again, I'll play the odds.

 

[rzrback77]

My comment is that I am shocked at the general agreement in the rankings (below the top ten - I expected the agreement at the top). I am really struggling with my rankings of those below the top ten. But, across the board, the rankings of those in that group is fairly uniform.

I didn't get a chance to submit my rankings the first go round (was on vacation). Mine will be a little different than the others, so we are all not just sheep following the flock.

I was NOT insinuating conspiracy at all. From what I have seen you guys are very opinionated and NOT sheep following the flock. Just surprised.

 

[LHUCKS]

I know stats can be deceptive at times, and that Foster will almost certainly be better this season than last after another year recovering from the injury, but I just don't think you can say he'll be so good based on what he did last season. For reference, Stephen Davis finished showed much better in these measures than Foster did.

Like Bulger, I believe Foster is a case where you need to be less quantitative and more qualitative in your analysis.Reasons why Foster will surprise, and why I believe he will be the true definition of sleeper.a) He has a vast amount of talentb) Davis is injury prone(the same can be said for Foster I guess, but Foster is much younger)c) Of all the guys ranked past the mid-20's, Foster has the most upside and thus is an excellent Backup to have in most fantasy formats.I'd much rather have a guy that has 1400 yard potential than a guy that is destine for RBBC...i.e. Hearst/Bell/Griffin/I'm definitley higher than 95% of the ff world on Foster...but I don't care. I think the kid is a stud and will break out one way or another this year.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Just because it's complicated doesn't mean it's bad. The one thing these stats do, that no one else does, is stop giving RBs credit for an 8 yard draw play on 3rd and 12. That alone makes it useful when looking at 3rd down backs like Foster, whose stats are going to be completely distorted based on the game situations when he was used.

Your league doesn't count 8 yard draw plays on 3rd and 12?Colin

 

[Eagle Eye]

Westbrook looks great when he plays, but he strikes me as brittle and lacks the elusiveness IMO to be a starting runningback in the NFL for an entire season.

I'll buy the brittle part but he does not lack elusiveness. He's the most elusive back the Eagles have had since Charlie Garner left. I think Andy Reid realizes that this guy is one of his playmakers on offense and you'll see him get quality opportunities every week. With no Duce, he will be the only pass-catching back in an offense that loves to utilize the RBs out of the backfield. IMHO, only an injury will keep him out of the top 20 this year.

 

[wadegarrett]

IMHO, only an injury will keep him out of the top 20 this year.

And too much TBBC.

 

[LHUCKS]

Regarding Kevin Jones, I see RBBC. The Lions really want to see what Pinner can do, Bryson is still a good third-down back, and Mooch loves RBBC.

Bryson is a good third down back, but Pinner is awful. I see little to no competition for Jones. The best argument against Jones is that very few human beings can take the pounding that NFL RBs do and Jones has obviously not proven he can. Nevertheless, I think he can and will.

 

[LHUCKS]

Westbrook looks great when he plays, but he strikes me as brittle and lacks the elusiveness IMO to be a starting runningback in the NFL for an entire season.

I'll buy the brittle part but he does not lack elusiveness. He's the most elusive back the Eagles have had since Charlie Garner left. I think Andy Reid realizes that this guy is one of his playmakers on offense and you'll see him get quality opportunities every week. With no Duce, he will be the only pass-catching back in an offense that loves to utilize the RBs out of the backfield. IMHO, only an injury will keep him out of the top 20 this year.

Elusiveness is a vague term.Basically I saw the guy get ROCKED on some runs. He doesn't avoid hits very well it seems. On the other hand, you're right, he can definitely juke a player, no question.

 

[Jason Wood]

Regarding Kevin Jones, I see RBBC. The Lions really want to see what Pinner can do, Bryson is still a good third-down back, and Mooch loves RBBC.

Bryson is a good third down back, but Pinner is awful. I see little to no competition for Jones. The best argument against Jones is that very few human beings can take the pounding that NFL RBs do and Jones has obviously not proven he can. Nevertheless, I think he can and will.

How can you say that definitively? Pinner barely played last year and frankly, according to Millen, his injury was severe enough that he wasn't expected to play at all last year, and in fact was ahead of schedule.Pinner, before his injury, was widely considered a potential 1st/2nd round selection entering his final year at Kentucky.It's one thing to say Jones is the better prospect based and will get first dibs at being the feature back, is another thing entirely to say Pinner sucks and has no shot at getting playing time.

 

[Pittsburgh Hard Hatz]

Just throwing this out there guys. Found this on NFL.com. Little Q & A with Mike TiceWith so many quality running backs, do you expect Michael Bennett to get the majority of the carries, or will Moe Williams and Onterrio Smith be part of a running back by committee?-- Dave; Dallas, Texas Tice: Well, we drafted Michael No. 1 a couple of years ago to be the guy to replace Robert Smith. And if last week's minicamp was any indication, I think Michael is totally healed from that foot injury he had last year. He looked absolutely phenomenal, has matured some as a football player, seems to be more serious and focused, more grown up. Michael is going to be the guy. With that said, Onterrio is going to play some, too, and we'll find a role for Moe Williams and maybe even "Double M" -- Mewelde Moore.

 

[mario8723]

Exactly. He is the Michael Vick of the RBs.What I don't understand is how everybody can pretend to know how successful Gibbs' offensive scheme will be.a) Nobody really knows what the scheme will be: will it even work? how will Portis be used?b) Brunnel is learning a system, which means the offense may not click until midseason or later...if at all.c) Portis will need to adjust to a new offense...Denver is very unique. I'm not so sure Portis is going to have the running room he had in Denver.Way too many variables here to justify taking him #5 overall. Is he a talent yes. Have there been talented runningbacks that don't finish in the top 10 in FF scoring...every year.Again, I'll play the odds.

You forgot something else that should be figured into the equation as well. The defenses in the NFC East are far and away better than those that Portis is used to facing in the AFC West. No Chiefs. No Chargers.Now in their place, he gets to face the likes of Dallas and Philly. Throw in the Giants and Redskins and you're looking at a much tougher schedule. Gibbs can draw up all the plays he wants. At the end of the day though the other team is coming to play too and I don't see a lot of people bringing that into consideration here. Is Portis going to have a good year? Most likely yes. I would personally put him closer to the bottom of the Top-10 than the top though.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

3) Edgerrin James ... 1) He's healthier than he has been in years...

Just like he was last year. Just like Eddie George was each of the last four years.Sorry to nitpick an otherwise fine post (and not add any value myself), but when great running backs turn into merely good ones, this is always what you hear in the next May.

I don't know if he's any healthier now than he was at the end of last season. But at the end of last season -- his last seven games (including the playoffs) -- he looked like he was completely back to his 1999-2000 form.

 

[Couch Potato]

Assumptions: 12 team league, all team owners are experts

Well shoot. No point reading this thread then as it's inapplicable.I'm in all my leagues.

 

[LHUCKS]

Regarding Kevin Jones, I see RBBC.  The Lions really want to see what Pinner can do, Bryson is still a good third-down back, and Mooch loves RBBC.

Bryson is a good third down back, but Pinner is awful. I see little to no competition for Jones. The best argument against Jones is that very few human beings can take the pounding that NFL RBs do and Jones has obviously not proven he can. Nevertheless, I think he can and will.

How can you say that definitively? Pinner barely played last year and frankly, according to Millen, his injury was severe enough that he wasn't expected to play at all last year, and in fact was ahead of schedule.Pinner, before his injury, was widely considered a potential 1st/2nd round selection entering his final year at Kentucky.It's one thing to say Jones is the better prospect based and will get first dibs at being the feature back, is another thing entirely to say Pinner sucks and has no shot at getting playing time.

That's actually a good point in that Pinner is an unknown. So I may be jumping the gun by stating he is awful. You would have to think that if he did have a surprising amount of talent, he would have at the very least gone higher in the NFL Draft. So far I haven't liked what I've seen, but clearly nobody has seen a whole heck of a lot.Maybe I'm overlooking Pinner a bit, but I do believe Jones is more of the prototypical NFL runningback from what I've seen both in college and in the pros(although admittedly the dataset is extremely limited) and from everything I've read. Furthermore, Jones is now Mooch's guy. We will see.

 

[LHUCKS]

Assumptions: 12 team league, all team owners are experts

Well shoot. No point reading this thread then as it's inapplicable.I'm in all my leagues.

I say that, because in leagues filled with guppies I'm more likely to take upside guys like Vick and Portis and am forced to adjust my rankings. This is another ball of wax though.

 

[Tick]

Your league doesn't count 8 yard draw plays on 3rd and 12?Colin

I understand what you're saying - who cares if a player's good in real life as long as they put up FF numbers? Aaron Brooks was a great example provided.However, this was in response to LHUCKS's contention that Foster's immense talent is the reason he'll be so good this year. And in terms of showing talent, an 8 yard run on 3rd and 12 doesn't mean much, even if it ups your yards per carry.I agree that those formulas aren't very applicable for FF for the most part, but I do think they tell a bit about how good an NFL player is... and they say that Foster wasn't a great NFL player last season, while Stephen Davis was good. So in this context (looking at whether Foster will supplant Davis this season), I think it applies.

 

[Chris Smith]

Edgerrin James is definitely far from being washed up...

First half of last season while he tried to rediscover his skills

121 carries for 456 yards (3.8 YPC) / 16 rec for 90 yards and 2 touchdowns

Second half of last season when he began to display his former talents

189 carries for 803 yards (4.25 YPC)/ 35 rec for 202 yards and 9 touchdowns

James is only 25, is playing on an awesome offensive team and won't have the defenses keying on him thanks to Marvin Harrison and Peyton Manning. I expect pretty big things from him in 2004.

 

[Chris Smith]

Regarding Kevin Jones, I see RBBC.  The Lions really want to see what Pinner can do, Bryson is still a good third-down back, and Mooch loves RBBC.

Bryson is a good third down back, but Pinner is awful. I see little to no competition for Jones. The best argument against Jones is that very few human beings can take the pounding that NFL RBs do and Jones has obviously not proven he can. Nevertheless, I think he can and will.

How can you say that definitively? Pinner barely played last year and frankly, according to Millen, his injury was severe enough that he wasn't expected to play at all last year, and in fact was ahead of schedule.Pinner, before his injury, was widely considered a potential 1st/2nd round selection entering his final year at Kentucky.It's one thing to say Jones is the better prospect based and will get first dibs at being the feature back, is another thing entirely to say Pinner sucks and has no shot at getting playing time.

I was fortunate enough to see Artose Pinner several times on the tube during his senior season (not sure why we get so many SEC games up here on the west coast of Canada, but we do).I was very impressed with his determination on the field. He was dragging players down the field, running over guys and had decent elusiveness for a big back. I really like what he brings to the field and I definitely see RBBC rearing its ugly head in Detroit this season.I believe Kevin Jones will get the majority of the touches but it won't be a large majority. Something like 240 carries to 150.

 

[AB in DC]

An 8 yard draw play on 3rd and 12 is as valuable as an 8 yard draw play on 3rd and 7 in fantasy football last time I checked.I would be livid to have Aaron Brooks as my team's real NFL QB, but he puts up solid fantasy points. Daunte Culpepper is the consensus top fantasy QB again, yet I'm sure many of us would rather have Peyton running our real team. I like some of the stuff Football Outsiders does, but in the context of the game we play, it's not very useful (at least not that particular list).

You're missing the point. If in 2004 Foster is just another 3rd down back again, then he's got no ff value anyway. This whole thread started because LHUCKS (and others) seem to believe he is talented and may supplant Davis as a starter. These stats show that (in terms of 2003 anyway) he sucks.Barring injury, Foster is nothing more than a backup/3rd down back. If that kind of position has value in your league, go ahead and draft him there. But if you're expecting him to take over and be a stud, you're wasting a pick.

 

[LHUCKS]

Regarding Kevin Jones, I see RBBC.  The Lions really want to see what Pinner can do, Bryson is still a good third-down back, and Mooch loves RBBC.

Bryson is a good third down back, but Pinner is awful. I see little to no competition for Jones. The best argument against Jones is that very few human beings can take the pounding that NFL RBs do and Jones has obviously not proven he can. Nevertheless, I think he can and will.

How can you say that definitively? Pinner barely played last year and frankly, according to Millen, his injury was severe enough that he wasn't expected to play at all last year, and in fact was ahead of schedule.Pinner, before his injury, was widely considered a potential 1st/2nd round selection entering his final year at Kentucky.It's one thing to say Jones is the better prospect based and will get first dibs at being the feature back, is another thing entirely to say Pinner sucks and has no shot at getting playing time.

I was fortunate enough to see Artose Pinner several times on the tube during his senior season (not sure why we get so many SEC games up here on the west coast of Canada, but we do).I was very impressed with his determination on the field. He was dragging players down the field, running over guys and had decent elusiveness for a big back. I really like what he brings to the field and I definitely see RBBC rearing its ugly head in Detroit this season.I believe Kevin Jones will get the majority of the touches but it won't be a large majority. Something like 240 carries to 150.

That's interesting. I thought he looked timid and lacked explosiveness when I saw him at both levels...(I wish I could remember the exact college games I saw him in.) The runningback you describe is definitely not the runningback I've seen. This may be something worth looking into a little more closely.

 

[LHUCKS]

But if you're expecting him to take over and be a stud, you're wasting a pick.

Not a very high pick at #36.

 

[Chris Smith]

Regarding Kevin Jones, I see RBBC.  The Lions really want to see what Pinner can do, Bryson is still a good third-down back, and Mooch loves RBBC.

Bryson is a good third down back, but Pinner is awful. I see little to no competition for Jones. The best argument against Jones is that very few human beings can take the pounding that NFL RBs do and Jones has obviously not proven he can. Nevertheless, I think he can and will.

How can you say that definitively? Pinner barely played last year and frankly, according to Millen, his injury was severe enough that he wasn't expected to play at all last year, and in fact was ahead of schedule.Pinner, before his injury, was widely considered a potential 1st/2nd round selection entering his final year at Kentucky.It's one thing to say Jones is the better prospect based and will get first dibs at being the feature back, is another thing entirely to say Pinner sucks and has no shot at getting playing time.

I was fortunate enough to see Artose Pinner several times on the tube during his senior season (not sure why we get so many SEC games up here on the west coast of Canada, but we do).I was very impressed with his determination on the field. He was dragging players down the field, running over guys and had decent elusiveness for a big back. I really like what he brings to the field and I definitely see RBBC rearing its ugly head in Detroit this season.I believe Kevin Jones will get the majority of the touches but it won't be a large majority. Something like 240 carries to 150.

That's interesting. I thought he looked timid and lacked explosiveness when I saw him at both levels...(I wish I could remember the exact college games I saw him in.) The runningback you describe is definitely not the runningback I've seen. This may be something worth looking into a little more closely.

I know I saw him three times in 2002. The games were LSU, Georgia and Florida. I was really impressed with him in the LSU and Florida games when he hammered the ball in there really well and dragged defenders down the field. I believe he went over 100 yards in each of those games but I may be wrong on that. I know he played pretty well though in each contest.The year before I believe I watched him play South Carolina but I really don't remember too much about it.

 

[Mark Wimer]

Part I Quarterbacks conjured up some great discussion, let's take a look at the runningback rankings. (FBG Sortable Rankings)

Assumptions: 12 team league, all team owners are experts

Note: Some RBs such as Julius Jones(Hambrick Cut) and Barlow(Rattay injury) were purposely not considered for this thread since the rankings were based on information at the beginning of the month.

Running Backs

OVERRATED

1) Clinton Portis - You've got four proven All-Pros in proven systems ranked lower than Portis: Lewis, Alexander, Williams and Edge. Portis is in a new system with a new QB and with a new coach. Too many variables for my taste. Denver is runningback Nirvana, Washington might be and then again it might not be...I'd rather have a proven commodity that high in the draft. He could explode or he could bust. He needs to explode to justify going #5 overall in drafts...I'll play the odds.

Expert Rankings Observations:

Nice Job: Wimer...wow #12 is pretty low, maybe too low, but I can tell we have the same mindset.



2) Brian Westbrook - Westbrook looks great when he plays, but he strikes me as brittle and lacks the elusiveness IMO to be a starting runningback in the NFL for an entire season. I'm betting this is RBBC by mid-season at the latest...maybe as early as week 1. If I'm drafting a guy as my RB #2, I want a guy that will be there for me in the playoffs...Westbrook doesn't strike me as that guy. There are a number of runningbacks ranked lower than him that I'd rather have.

Expert Rankings Observations:

Stretching: A handful have him at #17 suggesting he's nearly a solid #2 - Wimer, Gray, Smith, Dowling

UNDERRATED

1) DeShaun Foster - Well if I'm going to give Stephen the Overrated tag, I'm surely going to have to give DeShaun the underrated tag. Definitely not a RB#2, but #36 would put him at the end of the #3's...I don't think so. Mr. Foster is one of the most talented RBs in the league, and the ranking of #36 will be scoffed at within the first half of the NFL season...mark my words.

Stretching: Apparently half of the experts don't believe Mr. Foster is even worthy of top 40 recognition.

2) Kevin Jones - Well in my QB critique I had Harrington as a sleeper, for many of the same reasons I think Jones will be as well. I'm not huge on taking rookies in re-drafts, but this situation reeks of sleeper: 1) Zero RB competition 2) 1st round Talent 3) Proven Offensive System 4) Nice SOS DIF...even Bryson almost looked like a pro in this offense in '03. Jones should shine.

Stretching: Wimer at #34...dude, Wayne Fontes isn't in Detroit anymore.

On Portis: My critique of Portis' new situation is this: Joe Gibbs is a team guy, and he always has used a system where one back is the "featured" guy, but where several other players get a significant number of touches. Look back at Gibb's early 90's "glory" days Pro-Football-Reference.com on Was. Redskins and you'll see that Earnest Byner never had double digit TD's while playing in Washington. Ricky Ervins and Gerald Riggs always "vultured" a significant number of touches/TD's. There is the one fluke 1347 yards/24 TD season that John Riggins had in 1983, but even in that stellar season Riggins still saw 145 rushes and 47 passes go to Joe Washington. Basically, I see Portis' likely role to be like Byner's in the early 90's -- carry the ball a lot, but watch Ladell Betts, Rock Cartwright and Trung Canidate steal touches and TD's in their situational roles. The best you can hope for out of Portis in 2004 is 1200-1300 11-12 TD's rushing/ 200-300 1-2 TD's receiving. #12 on my list, folks. A lot of those 11-12 rushing TD's will be on long runs, IMO.On Westbrook: I think that he will be the "featured" guy, but that Correll Buckhalter will see a significant amount of action. I see the pie being split up like this: 900-1000 5-6 TD's rushing/ 400-500 3-4 TD's receiving for Westbrook; 600-700 7-8 TD's rushing/ 100-200 0-1 TD's receiving for Buckhalter. The great loss of TD's due to Buckhalter coming in at the goal-line is what depresses Westbrook's fantasy value to below RB 2 status, IMO. He'd be way lower than #17 for a basic scoring league.

On Foster: He'll see significant action behind Stephen Davis -- to the tune of 500-600 3-4 TD's rushing/300-400 0-1 TD's receiving. Not top 35 according to my board.

On Jones: My knock on him is due to his slow 40 times before the draft. One of the draft experts that I respect, Jerry Jones, has him as one of two best draft-day round 1 bargains (Jerry Jone's Drugstorelist News and Notes, but I still need to see how fast he looks hitting the hole (and if he has a pro-level burst into "top gear") in pre-season before I can rank him more highly. For now, he stays at 800-900 yards rushing, 4-5 TD's/100-200 yards and 1-2 receiving TD's in my book. Pro LB's are so incredibly athletic that guys who looked great in college turn out to be average backs in the NFL.

 

[Marc Levin]

So far I must be 2 for 2, LHUCKS - you haven't mentioned my name once. Even though I have Tiki in my initial rankings as a top-12 RB!

 

[Marc Levin]

OVERRATED

1) Clinton Portis - You've got four proven All-Pros in proven systems ranked lower than Portis: Lewis, Alexander, Williams and Edge.  Portis is in a new system with a new QB and with a new coach.  Too many variables for my taste.  Denver is runningback Nirvana, Washington might be and then again it might not be...I'd rather have a proven commodity that high in the draft.  He could explode or he could bust.  He needs to explode to justify going #5 overall in drafts...I'll play the odds.

You have a point with SA, but I will play the "odds" too and bet that JLew can't get 2G rushing again, he is not an integral part of the receiving game, and his top-5 status is TD driven (something that may be inconsistent in Baltimore), I will bet that Ricky won't be clearly better that Portis given an offense replacing three pieces of its starting OL, possibly a new QB, and 8-man fronts a LOT this year, and finally, Edge has been a "good, not great" back since returning from injury - his per game '02 numbers would equal or be less than a 20% drop in Portis' per game numbers. And I give them a comparable injury risk.Sorry, LHUCKS, but there is no way you will convince me that any of the other backs you mentioned outside of SA are "safer" picks than Portis.

Edit - that should read Edge's '03 per game numbers.

 

[Kleck.]

Mooch loves RBBC.

I don't think he does. Mariucci plays the hand he's dealt. During his 6 years at San Francisco he only used it twice (2002, 2003). And I think that was mainly because Hearst was too good to take off the field and was a much better blocker than Barlow and was needed. Had Barlow been able to pick up a blitz and block as well as Hearst, he would have seen a lot more time. As for Detroit last year, I don't consider that RBBC, I consider that a mess. Not one of those RB's deserved to be a starter nor was that offense capable of having a RB put up solid numbers. As a team they only rushed the ball 331 times. I think we'll see a definite increase in those numbers and it should be close to or around 400. That should leave plenty of opportunities for Kevin Jones and a 250 carry season should not be out of reach for him. The majority of the remaining 150 or so carries will probably go to pinner as long as he looks good and can perform better than Bryson which shouldn't be too hard to do. I guess it all depends on what someone's definition of RBBC is. When a RB get 60% or more of the rushes, or is capable of playing all 3 downs, I don't consider that RBBC. In Detroit it will most likely all come down to blocking though. If Kevin Jones comes in and picks up the blocking scheme and blitz pick-ups well that will increase the time he sees on the field. Jones is by far the most talented RB on the team and he gives them the best running threat. I'm not sold on Pinner like I once was. He was great in college but he's not the same runner as he was then. He might be healed from the broken left ankle AND ligament damage, but that does not mean he has regained his confidence and ability that he once had. That, IMO, is the hardest part of recovery. He definitely looks a few steps slower to me and I think the only way he can fight for playing time is to prove to be the best blocking RB on the team or a very solid short yardage gainer. He should be able to beat out Bryson and does have decent hands, but he is nowhere near the runner Kevin Jones is. So depending on one's definition of RBBC the situation in Detroit could or could not end up that way. Either way, I'm not so sure RBBC is a bad thing. Having Pinner or Bryson coming in to give Jones a rest or for certain situations should allow Jones to be a lot less tired. If Jones is playing healthy and fresh all game he should be able to have a 4.2-4.5 ypc average and that should give him 1000+ rushing yards for the season. Add in some receptions and TD's and I'll take that from a "RBBC" RB anyday.

 

[Marc Levin]

DeShaun Foster is chronically overrated on this board. Check out the stats at Football Outsiders. They rate him the third-worst RB in the league last year (of those with 75+ carries)

Are you sure you want to use a complex rankings system that has Rock Cartwright ranked 18th?Colin

Our differences from "most" sites is what makes us special.Colin - re: Westbrook - I thought I read recently that the team will be taking away Westbrook's return duties so he can concentrate exclusively on RB. With only C-Buck as competition for carries, I like Westie, especially as a dual threat, but I fear the McNabb/Buck vulture around the goalline, which is what created a borderline RB2 ranking from me.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Colin - re: Westbrook - I thought I read recently that the team will be taking away Westbrook's return duties so he can concentrate exclusively on RB. With only C-Buck as competition for carries, I like Westie, especially as a dual threat, but I fear the McNabb/Buck vulture around the goalline, which is what created a borderline RB2 ranking from me.

I don't expect McNabb to do much vulturing around the goalline. A TD here and there for sure, but the idea that they'll be regularly calling a QB draw or rollout/run when its 2nd and goal from the 1 doesn't sit well with me. McNabb played a decidedly more "pocket" style of QB'ing until the playoffs last year because they, in my opinion, were trying to lower his risk of injury.Anyway, as I said earlier, I'm already second-guessing my Westbrook ranking.Colin

 

[Marc Levin]

Exactly. He is the Michael Vick of the RBs.What I don't understand is how everybody can pretend to know how successful Gibbs' offensive scheme will be.a) Nobody really knows what the scheme will be: will it even work? how will Portis be used?b) Brunnel is learning a system, which means the offense may not click until midseason or later...if at all.c) Portis will need to adjust to a new offense...Denver is very unique. I'm not so sure Portis is going to have the running room he had in Denver.Way too many variables here to justify taking him #5 overall. Is he a talent yes. Have there been talented runningbacks that don't finish in the top 10 in FF scoring...every year.Again, I'll play the odds.

You forgot something else that should be figured into the equation as well. The defenses in the NFC East are far and away better than those that Portis is used to facing in the AFC West. No Chiefs. No Chargers.Now in their place, he gets to face the likes of Dallas and Philly. Throw in the Giants and Redskins and you're looking at a much tougher schedule.

Well, even assuming the truth of your statements about defenses, 6 games does not a season make (except for during practice, he won't be facing the Redskins' defense when it matters ) - and he will be playing a 5-win schedule versus a 10-win schedule, so ostensibly easier out of division opponents.And, I dispute that the run defenses are so much more difficult in the NFC East that it should affect a back's ranking. Dallas was top notch last year, but Philly had a horrid run D last year and the Giants are (sorry G-fans) one of the worst teams in the entire league on both sides of the ball. Finally, who cares if the run Ds are more tough? Deuce was exceptional the last two years versus the NFC South and JLew played Pittsburgh twice last year, in addition to the Dolphins and Broncos, and had a fine season.

 

[Marc Levin]

Barring injury, Foster is nothing more than a backup/3rd down back. If that kind of position has value in your league, go ahead and draft him there. But if you're expecting him to take over and be a stud, you're wasting a pick.

However, the likelihood of Davis missing a game or two are pretty good given his history. I think Davis will be the primary vball carrier, will get 320 carries at least, but may very well be injured for two or three games that would make Foster good to keep on your radar.Better to have than an RBBC guy? Probably, given the fact that if Davis misses extended time he wil lhold more value. Rate him top-36 (ie - worthy of potential starts for your squad) like LHUCKS suggested? You'd be taking a HUGE risk if you drafted with the idea of using him as a starter, but you'd be correct ranking him high based ont he fact that hhe might be worth a start or two while filling in for Davis.I out of hand reject the argument that Foster will replace a healthy Davis at any point this year.