Hey guys. I liked this thread so much it inspired a whole article at our site, which folks are
welcome to come and read..
Before we go any further a little background...I started this thread stating that Foster was an underrated runningback. It inspired this article(link above), which basically challenges my assertion that Foster is worthy of being ranked higher than #36. Please read the article before proceeding if you want to fully understand the following arguments. I will approach this article with the same analytical approach they drilled into our heads at law school. This will be a three step process. Here is the outline.
I. Summary of Article Utilizing IRAC
a) issue
b) rule
c) analysis
d) conclusion
II. Strengths and Weaknesses of Article(Dissenting Opinion)
a) Strengths
b) Weaknesses
c) Summary of Article
III.More on Why Foster Is Underrated at #36
a) Summary of My Pro-Foster Argument
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Part I: IRAC Breakdown of Article
First I will summarize the article with a legal method called IRAC(Issue, Rule, Analysis, Conclusion) It is used as a common framework to study case law at most likely every respected law school in the country.
Issues:
Was Rock Cartwright a better RB than Foster in '03? (Implied in article)
Is Foster Overrated on this Board at #36? (Implied in article)
Rule:
VOA, or Value Over Average - This stat breaks down the NFL season play by play to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average.
DVOA - DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) - VOA, but each play adjusted to take into account the defense it was against.(the definition given in the article where it is defined is very poor, I'm pretty sure this is what they mean)
Analysis:
*Rock Cartwright has a better DVOA than does Foster
*Cartwright has a better DVOA than does Foster on all downs
*Cartwright has a better DVOA thand does Foster on various yards-to-go categories(example need 2-3 yards for first down)
Conclusion:
"But if last year represents Foster's true ability, Carolina is going to find that depending on Foster doesn't win them a lot of games. DVOA doesn't determine fantasy value, but it does show me that I'd rather have Stephen Davis on my team, and if John Fox agrees, you would rather have Stephen Davis on your fantasy team too."
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Part II: Strengths and Weaknesses of Article
Strengths
*DVOA is a legitimate
attempt to determine how effective a runningback is from a team perspective. Team perspective meaning fantasy value is not the object of DVOA, rather it is used to determine how effective players are in real-life game situations. Example, 2nd down.
Weaknesses
*You cannot compare one offensive system to another. Comparing the Redskins offensive scheme to the Panthers offensive scheme is like comparing apples to oranges. Offenses have different styles that have a direct effect on the various DVOA categories, such as the number of yards on first down attempts. Furthermore, offenses that play from behind usually have inflated rushing stats because the defense concedes the run...which is a huge reason why Carolina cannot be compared to Washington...Washington was behind a heck of a lot more than was Carolina.
*As Stated In the Article - Deshaun Foster was never 100% during the regular season last year. This is HUGE. I'm almost willing to disregard this article on that fact alone.
*Deshaun's playoff game was not taken into account, which is indisputably the best indicator of how Deshaun will perform this year(from a game perspective) because he was healthier and it was his most recent game from an experience factor.
*The fact that this was for all intensive purposes Deshaun's rookie season was not taken into account. In the history of the NFL an extremely lopsided percentage of runningbacks don't have their most effective seasons until a couple of years into their career. Deshaun's experience will improve his numbers.
*You are making a leap from DVOA success to fantasy success that I'm assuming the creators of VOA did not intend. Again you admit this, but it needs to be pointed out as a weakness...because it just is.
Summary: I hate to break it to you but you just wasted a colossal amount of time on a meaningless study. I respect your efforts and understand what you are trying to demonstrate, but there are so many significant logic loopholes in your article that its statistical conclusions hold little to no water in my opinion. You even admit to many of them in your article, but sort of dismiss them as being relatively insignificant.
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Part III: Foster Ranking Argument/Summary
Now to get back to my Foster argument that I really haven't had the opportunity to elaborate on as much as I'd like.
*I don't rank players strictly based on my fantasy projections. For runningbacks I rank my top 24-26(depending on tier) based on projections. After that I rank my players strictly according to upside and perceived opportunity.
*I have Foster ranked 29 because I believe he is the best backup in the NFL...and he is backing up one of the most injury plagued runningbacks in the NFL. It doesn't mean I have him projected for the 29th most points. It means after the starters are gone he's one of the RBs that I value most because he has the greatest potential to have a fantasy impact.
*Something that nobody has mentioned in this thread is that the last time Foster was 100% he was UNSTOPPABLE, which was in the 2002 preseason.
*I've never stated that I think Foster is going to take over Davis...I just believe there is a good chance. Fantasy football is a game of odds.
Sorry if I came off a little harsh concerning the article, I'm just not one to sugarcoat my opinions...and surely I'm not going to back down from an article that insinuates I'm one of the Deshaun sheep. I'm sure you understand.