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FBG Playoff Contest this year? (1 Viewer)

I'm reasonably sure that anyone who went with 'at least 12 players from those two teams' will be eliminated before the final cut.
I'm 99% sure that your statement is incorrect.
Me too - If one of the Wild card teams makes the final there will be teams with 12 guys left..
Unless the cuts are much higher this season. If FBG paid any attention to this contest, we'd have that answer by now :mellow: It's officially no longer Thursday morning and still no update.
 
Can't help but check the wasted players. Scored 60 points higher than the cutoff, so the wasted money is:

T.Y. Hilton $11 14.60

Andy Dalton $17 6.85

A.J. Green $18 13.00

Marvin Jones $8 6.40

Jermaine Gresham $11 3.70

Niles Paul $3 0.00

Adrian Peterson $14 11.20

That's $82 wasted. :cry: Strategy was horrible, execution not much better. :bag:

 
If the Broncos and Packers make the superbowl, I'll have the following players on my team (assuming I make the cut):Aaron RodgersGreg JenningsRandall CobbJermichael FinleyPeyton ManningDemariyus ThomasEric DeckerKnowshon MorenoAnyone else have all 8 of these players as well (and maybe more)?
I can almost guarantee that people will have more than those 8.. Since the Packers played in the Wild Card Round they probably will be a popular pick. Someone will probably have at least 12 players from those two teams
I'm not worried about sheer # from those two teams. Many teams with 10-12 Denver and GB players will be eliminated in the next cuts because they focused too much $ on those teams and will waste too many points. What I'm worried about it someone who has those exact 8 and completely overlaps my team, plus a kicker or defense or a cheap player like Kuhn.I'm reasonably sure that anyone who went with 'at least 12 players from those two teams' will be eliminated before the final cut.
XThat's the inherent advantage to picking a wild card team to make the Super Bowl, you don't have to spend as much elsewhere to get through week 1, which is the biggest hurdle when loading up on Super Bowl-bound players. Go look at the final standings for last year. All the top teams had like 10-12 players between NYG and NE - and not a bunch of $2 guys, either. They all had Brady, Manning, Gronkowski, Cruz, etc. IMO eight players is not going to get it done if it's a DEN-GB Super Bowl, because GB played last week. Eight players might be enough if you were picking DEN-SF or something like that, although it still probably wouldn't get the job done.
I'm going under a couple of assumptions:1) Significantly more entries this season, resulting in a higher cut line and more difficulty in moving on. FBG seems to be growing. This very well may be incorrect, but if I'm right, it will be more difficult to make the cut with a roster very heavily weighted (11 or 12+ players) toward the two superbowl teams.
You don't need all of the 12+ entries to make the final round. You don't need many of them, you don't even need most of them. You just need a couple of them. Surely a couple of them will make it there. This isn't like the regular season contest, where once you get to the final 250 everyone has a shot. In the playoff contest, many/most of the people who make the finals don't actually have any shot at winning. There are probably going to be a handful of teams that have 10+ Super Bowl players going and they're going to have most of the rest of the field covered. Last year a wild card team made the Super Bowl. The people at the top of the final standings all had 10-12 Super Bowl players. Two years ago a wild card team made the Super Bowl. The people at the top of the final standings all had 10+ Super Bowl players. Three years ago a wild card team did not make the Super Bowl. There you see a lot more 7-8 player teams near the top of the standings - but still, a 10 player team won the whole thing. To your point, participation was also much higher in 2009 than in 2010 or 2011, and I agree that's a big factor too. But I'm certain it's a combination of both. Picking a wild card team to make the Super Bowl gives you added flexibility in roster construction that ensures at least a few teams will get to the end with 10+ players in the Super Bowl. Even if the vast majority of 10-12 player teams get eliminated prior to the Super Bowl, they won't ALL be eliminated. Someone's going to get there with your eight players plus one or two more. The eight players you have only total $165. I'm sure someone's going to have guessed right with that remaining $85 to have you beat. :shrug:
 
survived...7 playing this week...let the fun really begintop 2 Patriots (I have 7), Kaepernick, Gore, Wilson, Lynch, B Pierce Max I can have in the SB is 9, but it'd be top 7 Pats plus the QB and RB from the NFC team (if SF or Sea make it). I'm assuming there won't be many out there with all of Brady, Ridley, Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez ($99).

 
If the Broncos and Packers make the superbowl, I'll have the following players on my team (assuming I make the cut):Aaron RodgersGreg JenningsRandall CobbJermichael FinleyPeyton ManningDemariyus ThomasEric DeckerKnowshon MorenoAnyone else have all 8 of these players as well (and maybe more)?
I can almost guarantee that people will have more than those 8.. Since the Packers played in the Wild Card Round they probably will be a popular pick. Someone will probably have at least 12 players from those two teams
I'm not worried about sheer # from those two teams. Many teams with 10-12 Denver and GB players will be eliminated in the next cuts because they focused too much $ on those teams and will waste too many points. What I'm worried about it someone who has those exact 8 and completely overlaps my team, plus a kicker or defense or a cheap player like Kuhn.I'm reasonably sure that anyone who went with 'at least 12 players from those two teams' will be eliminated before the final cut.
XThat's the inherent advantage to picking a wild card team to make the Super Bowl, you don't have to spend as much elsewhere to get through week 1, which is the biggest hurdle when loading up on Super Bowl-bound players. Go look at the final standings for last year. All the top teams had like 10-12 players between NYG and NE - and not a bunch of $2 guys, either. They all had Brady, Manning, Gronkowski, Cruz, etc. IMO eight players is not going to get it done if it's a DEN-GB Super Bowl, because GB played last week. Eight players might be enough if you were picking DEN-SF or something like that, although it still probably wouldn't get the job done.
I'm going under a couple of assumptions:1) Significantly more entries this season, resulting in a higher cut line and more difficulty in moving on. FBG seems to be growing. This very well may be incorrect, but if I'm right, it will be more difficult to make the cut with a roster very heavily weighted (11 or 12+ players) toward the two superbowl teams.
You don't need all of the 12+ entries to make the final round. You don't need many of them, you don't even need most of them. You just need a couple of them. Surely a couple of them will make it there. This isn't like the regular season contest, where once you get to the final 250 everyone has a shot. In the playoff contest, many/most of the people who make the finals don't actually have any shot at winning. There are probably going to be a handful of teams that have 10+ Super Bowl players going and they're going to have most of the rest of the field covered. Last year a wild card team made the Super Bowl. The people at the top of the final standings all had 10-12 Super Bowl players. Two years ago a wild card team made the Super Bowl. The people at the top of the final standings all had 10+ Super Bowl players. Three years ago a wild card team did not make the Super Bowl. There you see a lot more 7-8 player teams near the top of the standings - but still, a 10 player team won the whole thing. To your point, participation was also much higher in 2009 than in 2010 or 2011, and I agree that's a big factor too. But I'm certain it's a combination of both. Picking a wild card team to make the Super Bowl gives you added flexibility in roster construction that ensures at least a few teams will get to the end with 10+ players in the Super Bowl. Even if the vast majority of 10-12 player teams get eliminated prior to the Super Bowl, they won't ALL be eliminated. Someone's going to get there with your eight players plus one or two more. The eight players you have only total $165. I'm sure someone's going to have guessed right with that remaining $85 to have you beat. :shrug:
I stand by my point and think I had a great shot at winning this thing if three things happened:1) Participation (and the cutlines) greatly increased this season2) Den and GB made the Super Bowl3) Rodgers and Manning spread the points around their teams, rather than racking up huge points with one receiver each, thus elminating most or all of those 12 player teams by the final cut (since they wouldn't have nearly the quality of players from other teams to carry them to the finals).The odds of those three things all happening were probably about 1%...though 1 in 100 much higher than 1 in 5000.I'll definitely change my strategy next season if it continues to look like less and less people are interested in this thing. :blackdot:
 
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Round 1: 72.4 points (My cutline prediction is at 63.2, and you can take that to the bank!)

Banking on Denver vs Seattle:

Denver

QB - Peyton Manning - 29

RB - Knowshon Moreno - 17

RB - Ronnie Hillman - 5

WR - Eric Decker - 20

TE - Jacob Tamme - 16

TE - Joel Dreessen - 9

Seattle

QB - Russell Wilson - 24

RB - Marshawn Lynch - 20

WR - Sidney Rice - 10

TE - Zach Miller - 7

TE - Anthony McCoy - 6

PK - Steve Hauschka - 10

Cincinnati

QB - Andy Dalton - 17

TE - Jermaine Gresham - 11

San Francisco

RB - LaMichael James - 5

TD - San Francisco 49ers - 11

New England

RB - Shane Vereen - 4

WR - Deion Branch - 3

Baltimore

TE - Dennis Pitta - 14

TD - Baltimore Ravens - 10

Atlanta

RB - Jason Snelling - 2
Pretty close on my cutoff prediction, if I do say so myself...Have 11 players counting this week

Potentially have 8 players counting next week

12-1 (Hauschka) players in the SB if DEN/SEA make it.

 
thus elminating most or all of those 12 player teams by the final cut
I don't disagree with a lot of your logic. I also thought participation (and therefore cutlines) would be higher this year compared to 2011 and 2010. But this quote sums up my feelings. There's a huge difference between "most" and "all" in this context. If I thought all of the 12-player teams would get eliminated prior to the Super Bowl, then an 8-player strategy is probably a good one. But if most (but not all) of the 12-player teams get eliminated, then I'm still taking my chances with a 12-player team. It doesn't matter how much better your chances are of surviving with an 8-player team if it has zero chance of winning in the final round. If just a handful of 12-player teams survive to the Super Bowl (as they almost inevitably will) then most of the 8-player teams are DOA.
 
There were 5005 entries this year. Knowing this would've probably made me shift a little of my round 1 salary. Then again I didn't really make it by that much.-QG

 
Btw I have 13 Packers/Patriots FWIW. I think someone like mine will make it all the way if those 2 teams make it - probably with a different allocation of the other $ though.-QG

 
I have 6 slots eligible this week looking for a Seattle(8) v New England(4) SB, my only "free agents" are: Decker + RiceLost 3 cinci players which will probably mean I won't make the week 2 cut. :angry: (*) = potential scorers w/o violating 2 player rule

*Brady (p)Wilson (s)*Lynch (s)*RiceVereen (p)*Welker (p)*GTate (s)SRice (s)DBaldwin (s)*Decker Hernandez (p)Miller (s)empty (Hauschka) SEA (s)
 
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My team stinks based on last weeks results so I shouldn't be talking, but I will anyway...I'm pretty confused about how bad some (most?) of the staff entries. I don't recall them putting out junk entries for the season contest.Several of them have a few per team as if they didn't understand themselves and Clayton went the opposite extreme and picked players from only 2 teams.

 
Feeling pretty good about my squad after getting by this week. I have a NE/GBay Superbowl with 10 guys...(Brady,Woodhead,Welker,Gronk,Hernandez,Gostkowski,Rodgers,Jennings,Cobb,Nelson)Counting on 4 from the above with Flacco, Decker, Andre and Walter counting this weekend.If NE/GBay go to the conference finals, I will have 4 scoring plus Decker or Flacco (depending on the Balt/Den winner)

 
thus elminating most or all of those 12 player teams by the final cut
I don't disagree with a lot of your logic. I also thought participation (and therefore cutlines) would be higher this year compared to 2011 and 2010. But this quote sums up my feelings. There's a huge difference between "most" and "all" in this context. If I thought all of the 12-player teams would get eliminated prior to the Super Bowl, then an 8-player strategy is probably a good one. But if most (but not all) of the 12-player teams get eliminated, then I'm still taking my chances with a 12-player team. It doesn't matter how much better your chances are of surviving with an 8-player team if it has zero chance of winning in the final round. If just a handful of 12-player teams survive to the Super Bowl (as they almost inevitably will) then most of the 8-player teams are DOA.
Fair enough, though I would have been fine with 3-4 teams like that slipping through. All 8 of my players were pretty much the highest $ value players on those teams, so it's likely that at least 1 would have been unique (probably Finley or Cobb). I would have been fine with top-10 assuming that building my team to make it to the top 10 probably upped my odds considerably in comparison to a 1st place or nothing team.In any case, the basic premise that I built my team on failed and I screwed up. I wouldn't be surprised if I cruised through the final cuts considering that all of my players are still alive, but I have no chance at finishing in the money. I was hoping for a cut around 90.

Totally agree with what you're saying now that I see the cut is so low :thumbup:

 
Regals26 This entry is still alive. 18 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Tom Brady $26 0.00 Stevan Ridley $14 0.00 Shane Vereen $4 0.00 Wes Welker $17 0.00 Aaron Hernandez $19 0.00 Ray Rice $19 12.20 Torrey Smith $14 5.10 Vick Ballard $10 9.90 Colin Kaepernick $26 0.00 Frank Gore $15 0.00 Michael Crabtree $19 0.00 San Francisco 49ers $11 0.00 Greg Jennings $13 10.10 Jordy Nelson $13 8.10 Marshawn Lynch $20 20.60 Sidney Rice $10 3.70 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------TOTAL 69.70 CUTOFF 64.85 10 guys going this week. Baltimore upsets Denver and Seattle beats Atlanta and might be able to stay in the game.

 
Week 2 is the really difficult cut. Was 180 or so last year :scared: -QG
I didn't believe you when you quoted last year's cutoff of 180 in Round 2...but I looked back & you are right!For 2009/2010 (the only other 2 years the Playoff Contest was offered, IIRC), the cutoff was ~ 120 points...WTH happened last year to make it so high??
 
I probably came relatively close but am sure I am out at what I'm calculating as 68 points with this outfit.

NE:

Brady

Ridley

Gronk

Hernandez

Welker

SF:

Kaepernick

Gore

Crabtree

Vernon

SEA:

Wilson

Lynch

BAL:

Ray Rice

MIN:



ADP
Sweet! Best news I've had all day. I actually calculated my score to high and was only at 66 points but made the cut by two. Going to be rooting hard for SEA and SF this week. I think if they win and NE wins as expected I'll coast to the SB alive and if SF vs NE is the SB I'd have to feel like I got a decent shot. If, if, if....

 
survived...7 playing this week...let the fun really begintop 2 Patriots (I have 7), Kaepernick, Gore, Wilson, Lynch, B Pierce Max I can have in the SB is 9, but it'd be top 7 Pats plus the QB and RB from the NFC team (if SF or Sea make it). I'm assuming there won't be many out there with all of Brady, Ridley, Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez ($99).
Yeah, you are screwed if the 49ers and Seahawks lose this week. You'll be cooked.
 
Week 2 is the really difficult cut. Was 180 or so last year :scared: -QG
I didn't believe you when you quoted last year's cutoff of 180 in Round 2...but I looked back & you are right!For 2009/2010 (the only other 2 years the Playoff Contest was offered, IIRC), the cutoff was ~ 120 points...WTH happened last year to make it so high??
I think both the NO/SF & NE/Denver were huge scoring games. I think Brady threw 5 TD's & Brees also had a good game..
 
In a very unscientific, and admittedly small sample size by just clicking on roster after roster I have come to a few conclusions. 1) A LOT of FBGs don't know AFC from NFC (hint: Denver and NE won't be in the Superbowl together)2) Either 80% of the entries don't understand the format, or just want to make the finals, OR I don't understand the format.3) Very few FBGs like Atlanta at all.4) My team will be toast in week 2 due to losing a couple WC players, leaving me with only 6 scorers.5) Most teams seem to have 8+ decent scorers for week 2. IMO this will in fact make the "12+ Superbowl player" entries very unlikely to get through week 2. But I guess that is the whole point. How far can you push it for the SB, but still get by week 2.With #5 in mind, who still likes their chances to advance through week 2, but has 12+ in your SB? How many viable scorers are you taking into week 2?

 
In a very unscientific, and admittedly small sample size by just clicking on roster after roster I have come to a few conclusions. 1) A LOT of FBGs don't know AFC from NFC (hint: Denver and NE won't be in the Superbowl together)2) Either 80% of the entries don't understand the format, or just want to make the finals, OR I don't understand the format.3) Very few FBGs like Atlanta at all.4) My team will be toast in week 2 due to losing a couple WC players, leaving me with only 6 scorers.5) Most teams seem to have 8+ decent scorers for week 2. IMO this will in fact make the "12+ Superbowl player" entries very unlikely to get through week 2. But I guess that is the whole point. How far can you push it for the SB, but still get by week 2.With #5 in mind, who still likes their chances to advance through week 2, but has 12+ in your SB? How many viable scorers are you taking into week 2?
I have 13 players from GB/NE.. Only have 2 other scorers though.. Tough to say about my chances.. I could see getting at least 120 but if the cut is much higher than I would need a pretty big game out of my other 2 scorers or have a low scoring Broncos game..
 
In a very unscientific, and admittedly small sample size by just clicking on roster after roster I have come to a few conclusions. 1) A LOT of FBGs don't know AFC from NFC (hint: Denver and NE won't be in the Superbowl together)2) Either 80% of the entries don't understand the format, or just want to make the finals, OR I don't understand the format.3) Very few FBGs like Atlanta at all.4) My team will be toast in week 2 due to losing a couple WC players, leaving me with only 6 scorers.5) Most teams seem to have 8+ decent scorers for week 2. IMO this will in fact make the "12+ Superbowl player" entries very unlikely to get through week 2. But I guess that is the whole point. How far can you push it for the SB, but still get by week 2.With #5 in mind, who still likes their chances to advance through week 2, but has 12+ in your SB? How many viable scorers are you taking into week 2?
I think I have a shot to make it this week with 11 guys going and I do have 12 guys in the SB, although as Bass points out, some of those 12 are "half" or quarter" players.
Code:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Peyton Manning           $29      0.00 Knowshon Moreno          $17      0.00 Ronnie Hillman            $5      0.00 Jacob Hester              $2      0.00 Eric Decker              $20      0.00 Joel Dreessen             $9      0.00 Tom Brady                $26      0.00 Danny Woodhead            $8      0.00 James Casey               $2      2.50 Bernard Pierce            $7     10.30 LaVon Brazill             $2      2.70 Michael Crabtree         $19      0.00 A.J. Jenkins              $3      0.00 Alex Green                $2      0.00 James Jones              $10      9.10 Russell Wilson           $24     22.05 Marshawn Lynch           $20     20.60 Michael Robinson          $2      9.60 Golden Tate              $12      7.50 Sidney Rice              $10      3.70 Zach Miller               $7     10.80 Adrian Peterson          $14     11.20
 
This is the total number of players selected in the contest, by NFL team:

Code:
GB	14529DEN	12740NE	12516SEA	7873HOU	4949ATL	4666BAL	4163WAS	3749SF	3583IND	3487MIN	2869CIN	2576
SF getting no love...
 
Week 2 is the really difficult cut. Was 180 or so last year :scared: -QG
I didn't believe you when you quoted last year's cutoff of 180 in Round 2...but I looked back & you are right!For 2009/2010 (the only other 2 years the Playoff Contest was offered, IIRC), the cutoff was ~ 120 points...WTH happened last year to make it so high??
Look at the games last year. You had Brady throw for 6 TD's. Not to mention that Brees, Alex Smith, Eli and Rodgers all threw for 3+ as well. Vernon Davis had a monster game, Gronkowski alone put up 47 something points. Nicks put up 35. Even in the low scoring Hou/Bal game you had Johnson put up 20, foster put up 24. Basically any stud you had count for you, put up huge numbers. I'd expect cut line this week to be somewhere around 130.
 
If the Broncos and Packers make the superbowl, I'll have the following players on my team (assuming I make the cut):Aaron RodgersGreg JenningsRandall CobbJermichael FinleyPeyton ManningDemariyus ThomasEric DeckerKnowshon MorenoAnyone else have all 8 of these players as well (and maybe more)?
There are nine teams still alive that have all eight of those players plus at least one more from GB or DEN:
Code:
ENTRY	DEN	GB	TOTAL100486	5	9	14103236	6	6	12100743	6	6	12104393	4	6	10102406	5	5	10102900	6	4	10101577	5	4	9104666	4	5	9102004	4	5	9
 
In a very unscientific, and admittedly small sample size by just clicking on roster after roster I have come to a few conclusions. 1) A LOT of FBGs don't know AFC from NFC (hint: Denver and NE won't be in the Superbowl together)2) Either 80% of the entries don't understand the format, or just want to make the finals, OR I don't understand the format.3) Very few FBGs like Atlanta at all.4) My team will be toast in week 2 due to losing a couple WC players, leaving me with only 6 scorers.5) Most teams seem to have 8+ decent scorers for week 2. IMO this will in fact make the "12+ Superbowl player" entries very unlikely to get through week 2. But I guess that is the whole point. How far can you push it for the SB, but still get by week 2.With #5 in mind, who still likes their chances to advance through week 2, but has 12+ in your SB? How many viable scorers are you taking into week 2?
I think I have a shot to make it this week with 11 guys going and I do have 12 guys in the SB, although as Bass points out, some of those 12 are "half" or quarter" players.
Code:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Peyton Manning           $29      0.00 Knowshon Moreno          $17      0.00 Ronnie Hillman            $5      0.00 Jacob Hester              $2      0.00 Eric Decker              $20      0.00 Joel Dreessen             $9      0.00 Tom Brady                $26      0.00 Danny Woodhead            $8      0.00 James Casey               $2      2.50 Bernard Pierce            $7     10.30 LaVon Brazill             $2      2.70 Michael Crabtree         $19      0.00 A.J. Jenkins              $3      0.00 Alex Green                $2      0.00 James Jones              $10      9.10 Russell Wilson           $24     22.05 Marshawn Lynch           $20     20.60 Michael Robinson          $2      9.60 Golden Tate              $12      7.50 Sidney Rice              $10      3.70 Zach Miller               $7     10.80 Adrian Peterson          $14     11.20
You may be onto something there. You look good for week 2. If you and your teams make the finals you'll just need Demariyus Thomas to forget to show up.
 
In a very unscientific, and admittedly small sample size by just clicking on roster after roster I have come to a few conclusions. 1) A LOT of FBGs don't know AFC from NFC (hint: Denver and NE won't be in the Superbowl together)2) Either 80% of the entries don't understand the format, or just want to make the finals, OR I don't understand the format.3) Very few FBGs like Atlanta at all.4) My team will be toast in week 2 due to losing a couple WC players, leaving me with only 6 scorers.5) Most teams seem to have 8+ decent scorers for week 2. IMO this will in fact make the "12+ Superbowl player" entries very unlikely to get through week 2. But I guess that is the whole point. How far can you push it for the SB, but still get by week 2.With #5 in mind, who still likes their chances to advance through week 2, but has 12+ in your SB? How many viable scorers are you taking into week 2?
I think I have a shot to make it this week with 11 guys going and I do have 12 guys in the SB, although as Bass points out, some of those 12 are "half" or quarter" players.
Code:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Peyton Manning           $29      0.00 Knowshon Moreno          $17      0.00 Ronnie Hillman            $5      0.00 Jacob Hester              $2      0.00 Eric Decker              $20      0.00 Joel Dreessen             $9      0.00 Tom Brady                $26      0.00 Danny Woodhead            $8      0.00 James Casey               $2      2.50 Bernard Pierce            $7     10.30 LaVon Brazill             $2      2.70 Michael Crabtree         $19      0.00 A.J. Jenkins              $3      0.00 Alex Green                $2      0.00 James Jones              $10      9.10 Russell Wilson           $24     22.05 Marshawn Lynch           $20     20.60 Michael Robinson          $2      9.60 Golden Tate              $12      7.50 Sidney Rice              $10      3.70 Zach Miller               $7     10.80 Adrian Peterson          $14     11.20
You may be onto something there. You look good for week 2. If you and your teams make the finals you'll just need Demariyus Thomas to forget to show up.
Yeah, he was the big scorer I didn't take from that combo to make the money work for the rest. Figured that maybe the SEA D would concentrate on him more and leave Decker free. Long way to go though.
 
survived...7 playing this week...let the fun really begintop 2 Patriots (I have 7), Kaepernick, Gore, Wilson, Lynch, B Pierce Max I can have in the SB is 9, but it'd be top 7 Pats plus the QB and RB from the NFC team (if SF or Sea make it). I'm assuming there won't be many out there with all of Brady, Ridley, Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez ($99).
Yeah, you are screwed if the 49ers and Seahawks lose this week. You'll be cooked.
Yes, I realize this. Part of the contest is picking winners, and I picked a 49ers vs. Seahawks NFC title game.
 

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