FBG Subscriber Contest Strategy (1 Viewer)

[nxmehta]

Got the email for the subscriber contest, and wanted to talk strategy. Specifically, for those of you that have previously progressed far into the contest, what has been your strategy (if you're willing to divulge)? Have you loaded up on studs and then tried to fill your roster with cheap players? Or have you taken a traditional VBD approach where you spread your money over undervalued players? How do you believe the scoring system will affect your picks? What about paying attention to matchups and bye weeks? Or is the whole thing just luck

I don't have a lot of experience with this survivor type format (I did play in last year's contest though), and would like to hear experienced players discuss the merits of their approaches.

 

[faux_bear]

I don't think you're going to see too many guys giving too much input before the lock. I must say though, there seems to be a lot of value picks this year.

I will say this. I don't see Clinton Portis being on more than 1% of teams. Not for 41 dollars.

 

[TheWick]

Swing for the fences, the stars must align for the winning roster.

Don't kill yourself trying to come up with it.

It's out of your hands.

Or atleast that is what I'm telling myself after tinkering with mine all day.

 

[notapplicable]

Swing for the fences, the stars must align for the winning roster. Don't kill yourself trying to come up with it. It's out of your hands. Or atleast that is what I'm telling myself after tinkering with mine all day.

Says the guy who has changed his line-up 379 times and is thinking about doing it again... j/k man

 

[ffnut]

You do understand that people are trying to win the same money that you are trying to won, right? Don't think too many people are going to give your their honest thoughts here.

Anyway, I finished 10th last year and it's just like your FF league - a lot of it comes down to luck. There were a couple of weeks where I was close to the cut line...it only takes one bad week. There was quite a bit of variation in the rosters of the top 12 last year so it's not like there is one perfect method. Go with the guys you trust and don't think about it much more than that after.

Good luck...just have a little less luck than me please!

 

[Skino]

I was a top twelve finisher last year, so I'm not giving away too much, but the simple answer to your question is to pick an idea and stick with it. If you want to pay high for the players that would be your starters and then go for cheap value for the backups and hope to get lucky, go for it. If you want to throw a bunch of undervalued guys at one position so that you can get a stud or two at another, go for it. I know this sounds very 'duh', but it's easy to overthink/second guess. It is a big contest with even more variation this year than last. Set yourself some rules and stick with them and it will make your team selection much easier. There is no 'right' or 'more likely' way and there is a lot of luck involved. Good luck!

 

[pghrob]

Mum's the word. You'll get nada from me or anyone else. We all want to win this $35,000 CONTEST. Fend for yourself. Good luck.

 

[Ned]

best thing you could do is not spend your full 250. save it for another day.

 

[KingPrawn]

best thing you could do is not spend your full 250. save it for another day.

I only spent $187 of mine. I took some lesser known players like Michael Turner who will be free-agents at the end of the year. With them as my keepers and the extra $63 next year I should be able to put together a GREAT lineup. But I'm willing to wait a year. If you don't have a lot of patience, play for this year.

 

[Ned]

best thing you could do is not spend your full 250. save it for another day.

I only spent $187 of mine. I took some lesser known players like Michael Turner who will be free-agents at the end of the year. With them as my keepers and the extra $63 next year I should be able to put together a GREAT lineup. But I'm willing to wait a year. If you don't have a lot of patience, play for this year.

 

[Bob N. Weaver]

Load up on TDs just in case a few of them get hurt.

 

[-OZ-]

best thing you could do is not spend your full 250. save it for another day.

If I don't spend it all, will Joe send me a check?After too many revisions this morning, I completely changed my strategy. At first I wanted Peyton, LT, Steve Smith and Gates - then a bunch of $1 players.Then I figured, what happens if they get hurt? SO I just went with 22 $11 players. DEPTH baby, it's all about DEPTH

 

[Bob N. Weaver]

You do understand that people are trying to win the same money that you are trying to won, right? Don't think too many people are going to give your their honest thoughts here.Anyway, I finished 10th last year and it's just like your FF league - a lot of it comes down to luck. There were a couple of weeks where I was close to the cut line...it only takes one bad week. There was quite a bit of variation in the rosters of the top 12 last year so it's not like there is one perfect method. Go with the guys you trust and don't think about it much more than that after. Good luck...just have a little less luck than me please!

Not to hijack, but how did the '07 $10K draft go for the '06 top 12 finishers (I was out of the mix at #17 last year). I'd be interested to see the draft results (After tonights deadline is fine).

 

[labman]

I made it to like week 6 or so last year and my big mistake was playing with it, wait till the last minute so you have all the info you can possibly have and do your picks and forget about it, different strategies work for different poeple, as a loser of course i like to say it's all luck, but realistically the guys that win know what they're doing.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I have a different viewpoint than many........even with that guys who have finished in the top 12, they even know finishing so highly requires a lot of luck in a pool where so many know a lot about fantasy football.

So, with that in mind.....I don't see a big problem in discussing strategy. Even with that strategy, everyone likes different players to some degree.

What's funny to me is everyone waits till the deadline hits.......then flood one thread with their starting lineups, like anyone is going to take hours and hours to look over everyone's lineup. The time is now if you wanted someone to actually pay attention to it.

I haven't done extremely well in the contests. I am not 100 percent sure but i don't think it's because of my strategy, I just think I went with players that didn't produce well enough.

What I've done in the past is balance out my positions, take a decent player in each position and then take some flyers.

This year, it's a little different in things you can do but I decided that I'm taking a big gun at RB, period. I decided on taking 2 Qb's that I thought were medium priced, that didn't have a lot of competition for their job and doesn't have a big injury risk outside of just being a QB in the NFL.

I didn't choose a really expensive WR but took a lot OF WR's in hopes that I could land on a flyer for cheap.

/shrugs

That's really about it for me..........regardless of what strategy you implement, your selections must be good. For a few of them the stars may have to allign.

 

[fatness]

Pick all the kickers so nobody else can use them.

 

[ffnut]

You do understand that people are trying to win the same money that you are trying to won, right? Don't think too many people are going to give your their honest thoughts here.Anyway, I finished 10th last year and it's just like your FF league - a lot of it comes down to luck. There were a couple of weeks where I was close to the cut line...it only takes one bad week. There was quite a bit of variation in the rosters of the top 12 last year so it's not like there is one perfect method. Go with the guys you trust and don't think about it much more than that after. Good luck...just have a little less luck than me please!

Not to hijack, but how did the '07 $10K draft go for the '06 top 12 finishers (I was out of the mix at #17 last year). I'd be interested to see the draft results (After tonights deadline is fine).

It was pretty interesting. This league is set up like last year's (and this year's) contest in that you get the points for your best QB, 2 RB's, etc but we had a draft so each team is unique. There are not trades, no line-ups to set and no waivers - you just have the team that you drafted and that is it. The lowest scoring team will be cut for the first 4 weeks and then the lowest combined score every other week for the next four weeks.Should be pretty interesting. In my opinion, nobody's team looks particularly dominant. I doubt that anyone will be shocked if/when any team gets cut. I'll send you a PM with the rosters though I don't think that it's a big deal to post them. Perhaps Clayton Gray will do that later.

 

[Weapon of Mass Instruction]

best thing you could do is not spend your full 250. save it for another day.

I only spent $187 of mine. I took some lesser known players like Michael Turner who will be free-agents at the end of the year. With them as my keepers and the extra $63 next year I should be able to put together a GREAT lineup. But I'm willing to wait a year. If you don't have a lot of patience, play for this year.

Smart man.

 

[pghrob]

Don't you get bonus points if you score more fanstasy points for players whose cost is less than $20? There is also a bonus if your 22 man roster osts less than $200, right? Earn more and save!

 

[-OZ-]

For a few of them the stars may have to allign.

true.I ended up using $150 on 4 players and the rest are fliers. Lucky for me, my fliers always excel.

 

[Good_Ags]

I would suggest taking the FA players cause you never know, they might catch on somewhere...

And what no David Boston for $1, c'mon us suckers need a fix here...

 

[cincipd]

I'm interested to see how many everyone takes from each position. I like the tweaks made this year. I'm betting many of us have changed 100 times trying to figure out the bye weeks

 

[Bristol]

I tinkered with my lineup many times and about a week ago, I FINALLY came up with one that I can live with. My byes are spread out and I should get consistency from week to to week. I think that is the key to winning this. My lineup will be revealed once the deadline passes.

 

[Big Score]

My lineup will be revealed once the deadline passes.

Awwww c'mon Bristol.I'll show you mine if you show me yours. You first though.

 

[Bristol]

My lineup will be revealed once the deadline passes.

Awwww c'mon Bristol.I'll show you mine if you show me yours. You first though.

LOL! If I revealed my lineup, everyone would copy it because it is scary good. I am looking to win all the money myself and not spilt!

 

[destro]

The #1 biggest problem I'm having is that virtually every RB I want (and a few QBs/etc) has a week 6 bye. It's pretty ridiculous.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

best thing you could do is not spend your full 250. save it for another day.

If I don't spend it all, will Joe send me a check?After too many revisions this morning, I completely changed my strategy. At first I wanted Peyton, LT, Steve Smith and Gates - then a bunch of $1 players.

Then I figured, what happens if they get hurt? SO I just went with 22 $11 players. DEPTH baby, it's all about DEPTH

Dude, you seriously overpaid on your kickers!

 

[LHUCKS]

Players I like:

Leftwich

Portis

R. Moss

Lots of 20 dollar TEs.

 

[KingPrawn]

I think I've got my final roster. With my $23 leftover from last year and paying the extra $39.99 for the extra $50 dollars leaves me with $323 to spend.

With this I've managed to get P. Manning, LT, SJ, R. Johnson, Harrison, C. Johnson, T.O., Gates, and Baltimore defense on my team. I won't give away the rest of my roster because I don't want others to copy it but I should be OK. I couldn't quite figure out how to get the Bears D on my team without compromising my kickers. Maybe I should have paid the $49.99 for the $75 bonus dollars. Hope that doesn't hurt me.

 

[rzrback77]

Players I like:LeftwichPortisR. MossLots of 20 dollar TEs.

You still like Leftwich? Watchu talkin bout Willis? The rest of these I agree with though.

 

[dickey moe]

I think I've got my final roster. With my $23 leftover from last year and paying the extra $39.99 for the extra $50 dollars leaves me with $323 to spend.With this I've managed to get P. Manning, LT, SJ, R. Johnson, Harrison, C. Johnson, T.O., Gates, and Baltimore defense on my team. I won't give away the rest of my roster because I don't want others to copy it but I should be OK. I couldn't quite figure out how to get the Bears D on my team without compromising my kickers. Maybe I should have paid the $49.99 for the $75 bonus dollars. Hope that doesn't hurt me.

Huh?

 

[matuski]

I think I've got my final roster. With my $23 leftover from last year and paying the extra $39.99 for the extra $50 dollars leaves me with $323 to spend.With this I've managed to get P. Manning, LT, SJ, R. Johnson, Harrison, C. Johnson, T.O., Gates, and Baltimore defense on my team. I won't give away the rest of my roster because I don't want others to copy it but I should be OK. I couldn't quite figure out how to get the Bears D on my team without compromising my kickers. Maybe I should have paid the $49.99 for the $75 bonus dollars. Hope that doesn't hurt me.

Huh?

 

[apalmer]

I think I've got my final roster. With my $23 leftover from last year and paying the extra $39.99 for the extra $50 dollars leaves me with $323 to spend.With this I've managed to get P. Manning, LT, SJ, R. Johnson, Harrison, C. Johnson, T.O., Gates, and Baltimore defense on my team. I won't give away the rest of my roster because I don't want others to copy it but I should be OK. I couldn't quite figure out how to get the Bears D on my team without compromising my kickers. Maybe I should have paid the $49.99 for the $75 bonus dollars. Hope that doesn't hurt me.

Huh?

You didn't know about the bonus dollars? Simply paypal the price to me, select your players using the bonus amounts and ignore the error messages you get from the FBG software. Then sit back and wait for the boatloads fo cash to roll in.

 

[chris1969]

I've been saving money for the last 3 years and now I have $750 to spend. It's the only way to win this contest!

 

[dickey moe]

Lots of B.S. up in here.

 

[geoff8695]

Players I like:LeftwichPortisR. MossLots of 20 dollar TEs.

Solid Advice as usual Huck

 

[benbadman]

minimum starters at each position, then stock up on team defenses.

sacks, ints, turnovers.... great value

 

[nxmehta]

I guess I should have expected these responses

 

[hellz_fireflies]

I wore a blindfold when I did my picks..took a few tries but it finally added up to 22 players at $250.

 

[TD32]

I keep getting 22 players $251. No biggie, Ill just keep it like it is.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I guess I should have expected these responses

Because there's $35k at stake? Or some other reason?

 

[-OZ-]

best thing you could do is not spend your full 250. save it for another day.

If I don't spend it all, will Joe send me a check?After too many revisions this morning, I completely changed my strategy. At first I wanted Peyton, LT, Steve Smith and Gates - then a bunch of $1 players.

Then I figured, what happens if they get hurt? SO I just went with 22 $11 players. DEPTH baby, it's all about DEPTH

Dude, you seriously overpaid on your kickers!

Kickers? Who drafts Kickers?

 

[joffer]

Players I like:Leftwich

i get the feeling we'll be reading this until he's retired.

 

[jabarony]

A couple questions:

How do you find out your results? Is it real-time, or are the results posted on Tuesday etc?

What is an average "cut-score"?

After final submission, can you view another team's roster?

How early did you get knocked out last year?

 

[nxmehta]

I guess I should have expected these responses

Because there's $35k at stake? Or some other reason?

I'm hoping that's not Yes, because $35K is at stake.Although I find it interesting that the only sincere posts came from top finishers.

 

[jabarony]

I guess I should have expected these responses

Because there's $35k at stake? Or some other reason?

I'm hoping that's not :( Yes, because $35K is at stake.Although I find it interesting that the only sincere posts came from top finishers.

Yeah, relax people. Tune down the intensity.It's like not revealing your Powerball # picking strategy because someone else will use your guesses against you. GLTA, though.

 

[joffer]

so deadline is in 4-1/2 hours right?

one interesting thing looking at some week-to-week data from last year. LT was only the top point producer among RB/WR/TE once (week 8). don't get me wrong, he was a monster, and almost always in the top 5, but i would've guessed more weeks than that.

 

[CrossEyed]

Anyone else have their contest entry cleared out? I went in to double check and my team is empty and it says I have not submitted an entry.

 

[BassNBrew]

Anyone else have their contest entry cleared out? I went in to double check and my team is empty and it says I have not submitted an entry.

God doesn't like you gambling. Take note or prepare for eternal damnation.

 

[joffer]

Anyone else have their contest entry cleared out? I went in to double check and my team is empty and it says I have not submitted an entry.

don't have that problem, but you made me look and i changed it again