FBG Subscriber Contest Strategy (1 Viewer)

[BuckeyeArt]

I don't mean to poke, but your numbers are obliterated by the best starter format of the contest.

No they aren't. What's the use of a crappy third TE who's never going to score enough to make a difference?

You mean like Eric Johnson who scored 17.7 this week and only cost $1?The quantity WR theory makes sense but what confuses me is when people don't apply to TE's as well. The TE position is even more unpredictable and inconsistent than the WR position since they get 1.5 per reception and their points per week are even more dependant upon whether they score a TD. Having 3 TE's helps to smooth that inconsistency.

 

[phthalatemagic]

How is Antonio Bryant on my roster?

 

[CrossEyed]

How is Antonio Bryant on my roster?

Now there's a sleeper pick.

 

[yabahos]

Actually if you look at the rosters of 95% of the teams that made it to the 4 week playoff last year they all had LT2, R Bush, F Gore. The other 5% had S Jacx or W Parker, and most of the teams also had P Manning. What ultimatly seperated teams was the addition of a couple cheap players like B Edwards.

Those stats are a) misleading b) not applicable (4 week playoff round is insignificant IMHO) and c)come from too small of a dataset(1 year).Mathematically your best chance to win it all is to have a unique, successful team IMHO.

I'm playing for first place, not to make it to the 4 week playoff.

This post got me thinking about what was the perfect team last year. There are a number of teams that worked under last year's format but this is the best that I came up with so far. QB Brees,Drew - $14

QB Bulger,Marc - $19

QB Vick,Michael - $17

RB Betts,Ladell - $3

RB Gore,Frank - $10

RB Bush,Reggie - $22

RB Jones-Drew,Maurice - $2

RB Williams,DeAngelo - $11

WR Bruce,Isaac - $6

WR Carter,Drew - $1

WR Coles,Laveranues - $19

WR Curry,Ronald - $1

WR Harrison,Marvin - $43

WR Houshmandzadeh,T.J. - $23

WR Randle El,Antwaan - $3

TE Gates,Antonio - $35

TE Clark,Desmond - $3

PK Hanson,Jason - $1

PK Nedney,Joe - $1

DT Miami Dolphins - $3

DT Chicago Bears - $8

This team is $5 under the cap and would have cleared all the cuts by more than 10 with the exception of week 10 when it cleared the cut by 2 points. It would have also put up 895 points in Weeks 13-16. Looking at this team no one that subscribes to footballguys would ever pick this team but it would have carried you the whole way. You would have been laughed off these boards if you said this was the lineup you were entering into the contest. I'm starting to change my thinking on what it takes to win this contest.

I tried to maximize playoff points first and I didn't look at week 1 scores because everyone advanced. I started by looking at the QB, RB, WR. I then selected TE/K/DT that scored big in the weeks where the team had troubles making the cuts - weeks 9 through 11. Miami was a good fit because they put up over 20 points in weeks 9 and 11. For weeks 9-11 you needed to get between 12 and 18 points combined from your K and DT and there were a number of combinations that could have worked for you. Part of the reason I selected the kickers and D's were because they put up huge points in the playoffs but frankly with this combination of QBs, RBs, WR would have needed about 20 points combined from the TE/K/DT to win everything.

All this is hindsight but I think Hucks is correct. Uniqueness is key most of these guys were owned by less than 10% of the participants in the pool. A few interesting facts

Two RBs - Betts and Williams were basically useless during the season. They placed in the top two RBs three time between weeks 2 and 12. Basically you could have cut both these guys and still won the playoffs. It just would have been a little closer.

Three WR - Randle-EL, Carter, and Curry were basically useless during the regular season. The three of them combined only placed in the top 3 WRs four times in the first 12 weeks. You could have cut these guys and still won the playoffs. It just would have been a little closer.

At least last year you needed 3 guys to put up 20 pts until Week 9. For the last 3 weeks (10 through 12) you needed 4 guys to put up 20 pts. The 20 point mark seems to be the watermark. That shouldn't change much this season but the PPR scoring change for RB/TE should make the TEs factor into things. Now you will probably need something like 3 - 20 pts and a 15 pt to get by.

The QB mix put up 25+ points in almost every week - that seems to be the target to help carry you.

The format has changed slightly so the past isn't indicative of future results but I think you need to swing for the fences and take some risks.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

I just wanna know - did anyone take Terry Glenn?

 

[jon_mx]

Mathematically your best chance to win it all is to have a unique, successful team IMHO.

I'm playing for first place, not to make it to the 4 week playoff.

The best chance to win is to have the players who score the most points. That may or may not include the popular choices such as LT and Manning. Sure you have to do something unique to win, but that probably means finding those second and third tier guys who step up and put up real stud numbers, like a FWP or Donald Driver/TJ last year.

 

[Driver]

Mathematically your best chance to win it all is to have a unique, successful team IMHO.

I'm playing for first place, not to make it to the 4 week playoff.

The best chance to win is to have the players who score the most points. That may or may not include the popular choices such as LT and Manning. Sure you have to do something unique to win, but that probably means finding those second and third tier guys who step up and put up real stud numbers, like a FWP or Donald Driver/TJ last year.

My take on it. First, you have to survive 13 weeks without being eliminated. Second, your team has to score the most pts during weeks 14-16 (of the remaining 250 teams).To meet the first goal, you've got to attempt to avoid any low weeks that will put you in jeopardy of being below the cut line. IMO the best way to do this is to focus on "value" players that you think will produce a high level of pts, compared to the $'s you invest in them.

Second point, last year many strong teams got eliminated because of a single low week. For example, one of their QBs got hurt and they got a low score and eliminated on the week when their other QB had a bye. Therefore, I think appropriate diversification definitely helps to avoid elimination during weeks 1-13. Practically, this means adding Garrard as a 3rd QB and EJohnson as a 3rd TE as cheap options for insurance.

To cover bye weeks, a team needs at a minimum:

2 QB

3 RB

2 TE

2 K

2 DST

I'd argue that a team needs a minimum of 7 WRs to cover bye weeks and the Flex position every week. With 22 roster slots, that only leaves 4 other slots to be allocated across all positions. For maximum diversification, I think the best approach is to add an additional player at the QB, RB, WR and TE positions. This results in a team with the following structure:

3 QB

4 RB

8 WR

3 TE

2 K

2 DST

The QB slot will score the most pts during the course of the contest. RBs are always valuable and they can serve as a Flex. TEs can also cover the Flex position, and they get 1.5 ppr, so the value of this position should not be neglected. This brings me to the WR position which I think is the key to success in this contest because of the similarity of the starting positions to the WCOFF format. And it is generally acknowledged that you'll be hurting big time if you don't draft a very strong and deep WR corps for a WCOFF-format team. My WR corps ended up as:

AJohnson (33)

Berrian (16)

Holmes (14)

Curtis (10)

Curry (8)

Wade (5)

Welker (3)

Toomer (3)

I spent $92 on WRs. As discussed above, I think 8 WRs was the right number (if I didn't want to sacrifice adequate diversification for the team as a whole across the other positions -- I took Garrard and EJohnson, mainly for diversification purposes), and I think the majority of the final 250 teams will have spent at least $92 on 8 or more WRs. [side note - I love AJohnson in this format (lots of recpt's and few low-scoring weeks) and thought he represented the best value among the top-15 WRs. Without injury, I think he's a lock for top-10 and has a decent shot at being a top-5 WR.]

I think I've got a strong and deep WR corps. However, with hindsight, I wish I had allocated more $'s to WRs to increase the strength of this position because I think it's the most critical position and will make or break many teams during the 1st 13 weeks. I considered long and hard whether to upgrade with Evans or Colston because I thought they offered the best value for $'s invested (of the remaining top-15 WRs -- I also considered Galloway). At the end of the day, I decided to spread the $'s across the QB, RB, WR and TE positions, using a best-value approach.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

3 QB4 RB8 WR3 TE2 K2 DST

I went back and forth between 6WRs, 3DSTs, 3Ks and the structure you've got there. In the end I liked the marginal benefit of the 3rd D and 3rd K more than the benefit of the two WRs I could have had for $4 total. I'll be watching the marginal benefit of Welker/Toomer and Northcutt vs that of Oakland and Bironas all season to see how it turns out.

 

[Tigerpiper]

I was eliminated last year because of injuries to Warner, Favre and Simms. I think depth at QB is an absolute here, and given the best starter format a more likely successful road than Peyton and a scrub (maybe Garrard).

Second, it is absolutely essential to spread the bye weeks- not only within positions (e.g. not having your two top wrs on bye) but between positions (not having your top rb and top wr on bye).

Third, I also subscribe to the "quantity" wr theory. Look for cheap #1s.

Fourth, you need to hit homeruns (i.e. more worth than cost). Buy guys on the way up (e.g. hopefully Leinart) rather than at the top (e.g LT). I need to hit on Holmes, Berrian, Peterson, Leinart, Rothlisberger to have a chance to win. Given the format (1.5 ppr for TE, ONLY .5 PPR FOR RB), the emphasis on a catching RB has been removed. I looked for carries and scoring opportunities instead of catches.

Finally, and this is something I think NO ONE ELSE HAS SAID: there is one posistion that is basically immune (in this format) to injury. Def. Why waste an extra roster spot on Def? I didn't- I went for the best cheapest DEF. I certainly see no reason to burn three roster spots there. Much better to have a 4th QB. Maybe I am overreacting to my injury rash last year. (I know you can have an star MLB go down, or something, but the posistion still plays for you in this contest).

The only counter argument to mine is variance- but I think you have more variance (and more points) at the other posisitons. A starter there can contribute to FLEX as well. So the variance counterargument doesn't hold, as it is eqaully applicable to the other posisitons, and the other posistions (except QB) can contribute to FLEX making them even more valuable relatively to DEF.

Finally finally, let's not overreact to Eric Johnson- it was in garbage time. How many times are the Saints going to be that far behind this season. I am happy with the result, but I am not ready to pencil him in for 85/800/5 quite yet.

QB - Ben Roethlisberger - 18

QB - Matt Leinart - 14

QB - Matt Schaub - 10

QB - David Garrard - 2

RB - Brandon Jacobs - 26

RB - Adrian Peterson - 23

RB - DeShaun Foster - 13

RB - Warrick Dunn - 12

RB - Dominic Rhodes - 3

WR - Lee Evans - 29

WR - Bernard Berrian - 16

WR - Isaac Bruce - 15

WR - Santonio Holmes - 14

WR - Troy Williamson - 4

WR - Wes Welker - 3

WR - Antwaan Randle El - 2

TE - Antonio Gates - 35

TE - Eric Johnson - 1

PK - Jeff Wilkins - 3

PK - Jason Hanson - 2

PK - Shaun Suisham - 1

TD - Miami Dolphins - 4

 

[Tigerpiper]

I was eliminated last year because of injuries to Warner, Favre and Simms. I think depth at QB is an absolute here, and given the best starter format a more likely successful road than Peyton and a scrub (maybe Garrard).Second, it is absolutely essential to spread the bye weeks- not only within positions (e.g. not having your two top wrs on bye) but between positions (not having your top rb and top wr on bye).Third, I also subscribe to the "quantity" wr theory. Look for cheap #1s.Fourth, you need to hit homeruns (i.e. more worth than cost). Buy guys on the way up (e.g. hopefully Leinart) rather than at the top (e.g LT). I need to hit on Holmes, Berrian, Peterson, Leinart, Rothlisberger to have a chance to win. Given the format (1.5 ppr for TE, ONLY .5 PPR FOR RB), the emphasis on a catching RB has been removed. I looked for carries and scoring opportunities instead of catches.Finally, and this is something I think NO ONE ELSE HAS SAID: there is one posistion that is basically immune (in this format) to injury. Def. Why waste an extra roster spot on Def? I didn't- I went for the best cheapest DEF. I certainly see no reason to burn three roster spots there. Much better to have a 4th QB. Maybe I am overreacting to my injury rash last year. (I know you can have an star MLB go down, or something, but the posistion still plays for you in this contest).The only counter argument to mine is variance- but I think you have more variance (and more points) at the other posisitons. A starter there can contribute to FLEX as well. So the variance counterargument doesn't hold, as it is eqaully applicable to the other posisitons, and the other posistions (except QB) can contribute to FLEX making them even more valuable relatively to DEF.Finally finally, let's not overreact to Eric Johnson- it was in garbage time. How many times are the Saints going to be that far behind this season. I am happy with the result, but I am not ready to pencil him in for 85/800/5 quite yet.QB - Ben Roethlisberger - 18QB - Matt Leinart - 14QB - Matt Schaub - 10QB - David Garrard - 2RB - Brandon Jacobs - 26RB - Adrian Peterson - 23RB - DeShaun Foster - 13RB - Warrick Dunn - 12RB - Dominic Rhodes - 3WR - Lee Evans - 29WR - Bernard Berrian - 16WR - Isaac Bruce - 15WR - Santonio Holmes - 14WR - Troy Williamson - 4WR - Wes Welker - 3WR - Antwaan Randle El - 2TE - Antonio Gates - 35TE - Eric Johnson - 1PK - Jeff Wilkins - 3PK - Jason Hanson - 2PK - Shaun Suisham - 1TD - Miami Dolphins - 4

The counter counter argument to my counter argument on variance for DEF is marginal utility. I think the amount of points scored by other posistions relative to DEF, and the FLEX availability, are the counter counter counter arguments to marginal utility.

 

[Good_Ags]

OK Here's my roster, first time in this contest so what the hell, went on pure value in my eyes without looking at bye weeks which may be my downfall, that and culpepper as my 3rd QB

QB - Matt Leinart - 14

QB - Matt Schaub - 10

QB - Daunte Culpepper - 4

RB - Willie Parker - 44

RB - Willis McGahee - 29

RB - Marshawn Lynch - 22

RB - DeShaun Foster - 13

RB - Adrian Peterson - 4 (Not a big fan of C-Bong)

WR - Lee Evans - 29

WR - Laveranues Coles - 25

WR - Derrick Mason - 11

WR - Kevin Curtis - 10

WR - Craig Davis - 5

WR - Sidney Rice - 3

WR - Antwaan Randle El - 2

TE - David Martin - 6

TE - Donald Lee - 1

TE - Eric Johnson - 1 (so far so good until he gets hurt)

PK - Jeff Reed - 2

PK - Neil Rackers - 2

TD - Chicago Bears - 8

TD - San Diego Chargers - 5

 

[Alberta Clipper]

Lots of ways to play this and it's all about where you want to place your risk/reward bets.You can load up at one pos or go balanced - I prefer balanced.You can go heavy top and lots of cheap fillers or balanced - I prefer balanced.Many will find that their biggest risk is during 1 or more of the later bye weeks. I think prior year results show those that have a big stud or two that survive their bye week are stronger than most down the stretch.However the % of those LT or PM type teams that survive their bye week(s) is lower than say the % of earlier bye weeks and lesser studs that have balanced teams.Finally I think you need to place an injury bet or two in this game (i.e. a thomas / betts / quinn). If they hit later in the year then you're ahead of the curve. Miss and you still can stay alive. Just some random thoughts.

3QB - Vince Young, Alex Smith, Brady Quinn5RB - Frank Gore, Brandon Jacobs, Jerious Norwood, Ladell Betts, Anthony Thomas7WR - Marques Colston, Santonio Holmes, Bobby Wade, Troy Williamson, Demetrius Williams, Wes Welker, Jacoby Jones2TE - Chris Cooley, Owen Daniels2PK - Olindo Mare, John Kasay3TD - Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Tennessee Titans

 

[Moniker]

Let's see if I can finally make it past week 11 this year:

QB - Matt Leinart - 14

QB - Alex Smith - 12

QB - Tarvaris Jackson - 7

RB - Willis McGahee - 29

RB - Jamal Lewis - 22

RB - Cadillac Williams - 21

RB - Dominic Rhodes - 3

RB - Brian Leonard - 3

WR - Larry Fitzgerald - 38

WR - Donald Driver - 30

WR - Santonio Holmes - 14

WR - Brandon Jones - 12

WR - Arnaz Battle - 5

WR - Troy Williamson - 4

WR - Ted Ginn - 4

TE - Dallas Clark - 12

TE - Marcedes Lewis - 7

TE - Greg Olsen - 7

PK - Neil Rackers - 2

PK - John Kasay - 1

TD - San Francisco 49ers - 2

TD - Arizona Cardinals - 1

 

[apalmer]

I'm figuring 135 points in week 1 for my roster. I think scoring will be lower this year, so that should hold up fine.

With an extra scoring player (flex) and 1.5 PPR for TE receptions, how is scoring going to be down? PPR for RB is down, but on the whole, I'd guess it will be higher this year.

 

[RUN HARD]

Never did this before, I just grabbed guys that to me had great value.....here is my line-up:

QB - Peyton Manning - 31 (I have HI projections for him)

QB - Matt Schaub - 10

QB - David Garrard - 2

RB - Adrian Peterson - 23 (Could be stud at end of year)

RB - Jamal Lewis - 22 (Improved line & Droughns got 1400 with worse line & offense)

RB - Cadillac Williams - 21 (If he can rebound...)

RB - Brandon Jackson - 15 (If you got 3 ??? at RB...and another)

WR - Reggie Wayne - 39 (see Manning...someone has to catch them)

WR - Roy Williams - 36

WR - Marques Colston - 27

WR - Ted Ginn - 4

WR - Dwayne Jarrett - 3

WR - Jacoby Jones - 2

WR - Devin Hester - 2

TE - Donald Lee - 1

TE - Eric Johnson - 1 ($2 on TE's....I think both have a shot at TOP 10 #'s)

PK - Adam Vinatieri - 5 (take my 3 when Manning/Wayne get stopped)

PK - Neil Rackers - 2

PK - Jay Feely - 1

TD - Cleveland Browns - 1

TD - Detroit Lions - 1

TD - Houston Texans - 1

Basically I spent majority on Manning & 3 solid WR's. Need my $1 guys to break thru

 

[Driver]

I'm figuring 135 points in week 1 for my roster. I think scoring will be lower this year, so that should hold up fine.

With an extra scoring player (flex) and 1.5 PPR for TE receptions, how is scoring going to be down? PPR for RB is down, but on the whole, I'd guess it will be higher this year.

I agree -- scoring overall should be significantly higher than last year -- I think the cut line will be above 135 pts at least one week during weeks 1-13. In addition to the new Flex position, scoring went up for QBs, TEs and Ks -- and only down slightly for RBs with 0.5 ppr instead of 1 ppr. Also, the number of roster slots went up which should result in increased team scoring.

 

[pizzatyme]

QB BYEs killed me last year. So, I went 3. I also think there is tremendous value in having 3 Defenses as you can get more than enough points from a 3rd D to make up for a Flex position. I took Chris Henry WR Bengals for $2 in hopes that he comes back and pushes me over the top after week 8. I have TO projected really high this year, so he is my home run hitter.

Finally, my RBs will be the make or break of my team. If they produce as projected, I feel like I can go far.

QB - Jon Kitna - 20

QB - Jake Delhomme - 13

QB - David Garrard - 2

RB - Cedric Benson - 32

RB - Marion Barber III - 22

RB - LaMont Jordan - 19

RB - DeShaun Foster - 13

WR - Terrell Owens - 40

WR - Lee Evans - 29

WR - Devery Henderson - 9

WR - Ronald Curry - 8

WR - Bobby Wade - 5

WR - Wes Welker - 3

WR - Chris Henry - 2

TE - Owen Daniels - 11

TE - Bo Scaife - 9

TE - Eric Johnson - 1

PK - Jason Elam - 3

PK - Neil Rackers - 2

TD - Dallas Cowboys - 3

TD - Minnesota Vikings - 3

TD - Arizona Cardinals - 1

Total value: 250

 

[QuizGuy66]

Here's my team. I think I'll be safe from the Turk this week but just in case

QB - Drew Brees - 21

QB - Matt Leinart - 14

QB - David Garrard - 2

RB - LaDainian Tomlinson - 70

RB - Adrian Peterson - 23

RB - DeShaun Foster - 13

RB - Dominic Rhodes - 3

RB - Tony Hunt - 1

WR - T.J. Houshmandzadeh - 34

WR - Santonio Holmes - 14

WR - Ronald Curry - 8

WR - Wes Welker - 3

WR - Jacoby Jones - 2

WR - Chris Henry - 2

WR - Dennis Northcutt - 1

WR - Sinorice Moss - 1

TE - Todd Heap - 26

TE - Eric Johnson - 1

PK - Rian Lindell - 1

PK - John Kasay - 1

TD - Chicago Bears - 8

TD - Arizona Cardinals - 1

Total value: 250

By my calcs I have 173.7 right now with Leinart, Housh, Sinorice, Heap, and Cardinals to play

-QG

 

[The Man With No Name]

Wonder where Drinen is with the percentages of each player taken.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Wonder where Drinen is with the percentages of each player taken.

ooooooh bad karma to mess with the Turk so early in the contest

 

[Synthesizer]

Feeling a lot better about my RBs after seeing L.Jordan today. Plus having a 3rd defense really paid off today with the Vikings scoring about 25 pts......

QB - Carson Palmer - 26

QB - David Garrard - 2

RB - Reggie Bush - 45

RB - LaMont Jordan - 19

RB - Brandon Jackson - 15

RB - DeShaun Foster - 13

RB - Dominic Rhodes - 3

RB - Ron Dayne - 3

WR - Jerricho Cotchery - 24

WR - Calvin Johnson - 23

WR - Vincent Jackson - 17

WR - Jerry Porter - 11

WR - Kevin Curtis - 10

WR - Wes Welker - 3

WR - Chris Henry - 2

TE - Todd Heap - 26

TE - Eric Johnson - 1

PK - Ryan Longwell - 1

PK - Nick Folk - 1

TD - Minnesota Vikings - 3

TD - Arizona Cardinals - 1

TD - Tennessee Titans - 1