Excellent thoughts and description of strategy for this contest IMO. I'll add my $.02 FWIW.
STRATEGY
- Obviously, try to find room for any player you see as a major value.
Agree. Biggest values by position IMO:QB - Brees (21), Kitna (20), Hasselbeck (15), Schaub (10), Garrard (2)
RB - Rudi Johnson (40), McGahee (29), A. Green (23), Foster (13), Dunn (12)
WR - A. Johnson (33), Evans (29), Colston (27), Galloway (20), Berrian (16), Holmes (14), Curtis (10), Curry (8), Wade (5), Welker (3), Toomer (3)
TE - Daniels (11), Scaife (9), E. Johnson (1)
K - Rackers (2), Hanson (2)
- Studs are overvalued in a best ball format. People look at LT carrying teams last year, but that was an aberration -- no stud, not even LT, can be expected to put up the kind of numbers that LT did on a week-to-week. Depth is the key, and you can only get depth without blowing the budget on studs.
Disagree that studs are always "overvalued." Every year, one or more studs have huge years. If you're lucky enough to pick the right one, they can carry your team and are well worth the investment. The problem, of course, is picking the right one that provides good value for a very large investment of dollars.Agree 100% with the bolded part above. To survive for 13 weeks straight, you must avoid any bust weeks (or a score that is just barely low enough for elimination). I think you need the strongest team possible -- with the most depth possible -- and that is only possible by selecting the "best-value" players to stretch the budget dollars to obtain the deepest and strongest team.
- At 6 pts per TD, it is very important to get two highly ranked QBs. QBs score a lot of points, and you can't afford mediocre weeks from your QBs. If your best QB score in a week is 200/1/1 (13 pts), when other teams will have 300/2/0 (27 pts) or 260/3/1 (30 pts), that's a huge handicap. Guys like Schaub and Harrington look like great values, but they'll have a lot of 200/1/1 games and not very many 300/2/0 games. And QBs are relatively cheap compared to studs at other positions.
Agree. With 6 pts per passing TD, QBs are the highest scoring position. I think you need 3 QBs on your team. For $32 or $33, you could have gotten (1) Brees/Campbell/Garrard, (2) Kitna/Schaub/Garrard, (3) Roethlisberger/A Smith/Garrard, (4) Cutler/Hasselbeck/Garrard, or (5) Young/Garrard and either E Manning, Favre or Leinart -- all strong combinations IMO.
- Minimum of two defenses and two kickers. This should be a no brainer, but you'd be surprised how many people don't bother. Where else can you get guaranteed production from a $1 roster spot?
Agree. With a bigger budget and more roster slots, I would have preferred to have 3 kickers and 3 defenses. But with $250 budget and 22 slots, I went with 2 defenses and 2 kickers and used the extra slots and dollars for the RB and WR positions.
- Maximum of two defenses. And cheap defenses at that. With no scoring based on yardage and points allowed (except for shutouts, which are rare and generally random), they just don't score enough to be worth spending a lot of cap dollars.
Disagree. Defenses can score more than 20 pts which can keep you from getting eliminated.
- Looks for kickers that make 40+ and 50+ yard FGs on a regular basis. With bonus scoring for long FGs, guys like Jason Hanson and John Kasay are top-12 kickers, and they can be had for $2 and $1 respectively.
Agree.
- Maxmium of two TEs. Don't be fooled by 1.5 per reception. There will still be only a dozen TEs that average 10 ppg, while there will be 40 WRs at that level. If you have two decent TEs, save the roster spots for WR (see below)
Disagree. If a TE scores a TD, along with 6 receptions and 60 yards, they score 21 total pts which is well above what you need, on average, from the TE or Flex position. With E. Johnson at $1, I thought he was a great pick for a 3rd TE who could be one of your high scorers for 4-5 weeks.
- Load up on inexpensive WRs. I focused on WRs that were very likely to be the top WR for their team on most weeks. That way, all you need is a good game by that team's offense for the receiver to be a contender for your top 3 (or flex). Personally, I believe that most WR2 are a mirage, unless you're talking about a WR who's just as good as the WR1. Someone like Greg Jennings or Wes Welker might put up a solid 8-12 points most weeks, but you don't win best ball contests with six WRs always scoring 8-12 points. You win with seven receivers scoring 17 points on good games and 5 points on bad games. Even if a player will have more bad weeks than good, you still survive when the other teams' WR2s disappear completely.
Agree somewhat. I think you need at least 8 WRs to cover bye weeks and the inherent variability in WR scoring patterns. But you need a combination of (1) high-quality WRs like AJohnson or Evans who are priced somewhat lower than their peers, (2) solid mid-level WRs like Berrian and Holmes, and (3) lower-cost WRs who are expected to play a lot and be productive like Curtis, Curry, Wade, Welker and Toomer. Bottom line, if you don't have a strong group of WRs with good depth, you're at a severe disadvantage in this contest.
- Finally, when in doubt, look for good matchups for weeks 11 through 13. There will be 37.5%, 50%, and 50% of submissions eliminated each of those weeks, when prior weeks generally eliminate just 15%. (I learned this from experience, having been eliminated in the final 50% cutdown last year. Frankly, I probably should have weighted the matchups for these weeks even more than I did.)
Agree.
My team:
QB - Drew Brees - 21
QB - Ben Roethlisberger - 18
QB - David Garrard - 2
RB - Willie Parker - 44
RB - Adrian Peterson - 23
RB - Cadillac Williams - 21
RB - DeShaun Foster - 13
RB - Brian Leonard - 3
WR - Joey Galloway - 20
WR - Vincent Jackson - 17
WR - Santonio Holmes - 14
WR - Ronald Curry - 8
WR - Arnaz Battle - 5
WR - Troy Williamson - 4
WR - Dwayne Bowe - 4
WR - Roddy White - 3
TE - Ben Watson - 15
TE - Bo Scaife - 9
PK - Jason Hanson - 2
PK - John Kasay - 1
TD - Washington Redskins - 2
TD - Houston Texans - 1
Total value: 250
STRENGTHS:
- Two QBs who should score well without costing Manning money
- Quality at RB (four good RB who will be their teams' starter for 12-16 games)
- Quantity at WR
- The cheapest "good" TE (just like in a normal draft, you want the last TE from the top tier before you get to the players who won't even break 400 yards)
WEAKNESSES:
- Too many Steelers. Parker and Roethlisberger seemed like great value, and Holmes is a top breakout candidate, but if the team struggles under the new coaching regime, I could be dead very quickly.
- Hit-or-miss defenses. I was hoping to have a little extra to spend on a team like Green Bay, but I couldn't get the numbers to work out.
- WRs may be deep, but there are a lot of bust candidates. I have to hope that carrying 8 WRs will overcome the high risk, high reward approach.
JMO - Critique of team:QBs - Strong combo, but I think you could have gotten almost as strong a combo by spending $8-10 less, as described above.
RBs - Strong group with the top 3 RBs and Foster's a great value IMO (assuming he doesn't get injured or DWilliams doesn't become the starter). I would have dropped Leonard and used the slot at another position.
WRs - Too weak as a group for my taste. No real studs and the best WR is ranked about WR20. Agree with selection of 8 WRs, but half of them (Battle, Williamson, Bowe and White) are very weak IMO.
TEs - Like Watson and Scaife as solid values but neither may be a top-10 TE this year -- and how can you pass up EJohnson for $1 -- I'd add him and drop Leonard.
Kickers and defenses - fine.
Summary - Strong team overall, but I think you're vulnerable with (1) the weak group of WRs and (2) lack of depth/strength at the TE position. This format is similar to WCOFF, with the slight modification of different pts for receptions for RBs, WRs and TEs. In a WCOFF format, you usually need a very strong and deep WR corps to be successful.
Every week, you need to cover 2 RB scorers, 3 WR scorers, TE scorer, and Flex scorer. The Flex position is the key component of this contest IMO, and you need a well-defined strategy to get solid pts from the Flex position each and every week which is the purpose of having a deep and strong WR corps. You need to assemble a team of "solid investments" -- players that will out-produce the $'s you invest in them (like value players who will outperform their draft position). IMO the key to success is a focus on "value" and "diversification."