FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (6 Viewers)

[Angry Beavers]

I have had success teasing the NFL thus preseason. (Thank you the nonsense safety to get the total over 30 last night! ) Trying this again.

Buffalo +10.4

Over 30

GLTA

AB

 

[Ignoramus]

I know ####all about track & field so this is a pure flier:

8/11/2013 1:50 PM Athletics Other Sports 402 Field wins 100m Gold* +750 vs Usain Bolt wins 100m Gold

Risking $10.00 To Win $75.00

 

[Ignoramus]

Guy's pretty quick.

 

[ChainsawU]

Tampa Bay is tied for the most runs versus LHP this season and is second in OPS versus LHP (.777). Tampa Bay is 23-15 versus LHP (9-8 away). Tampa Bay is 9th in the MLB away (29-28). Even though Eddings calls a lot of strikes (64.80%) and has a high 3.21 K/BB ratio, his totals have gone 13-11 this season (4-1 on totals of 7 or less).

TB 170

TB o3 160

*SDQL stat: Rays are 3-1 this season avoiding 3 game sweeps. Two of those games were Hellickson starts in which he allowed 2ER each in games versus the Red Sox at Fenway.

*Confirmation bias stat: Kershaw owns one of the majors' worst run-support averages at 3.20 and Hellickson owns baseball's third-best run-support average at 6.54.

 

[TheGooRoo]

Tampa Bay is tied for the most runs versus LHP this season and is second in OPS versus LHP (.777). Tampa Bay is 23-15 versus LHP (9-8 away). Tampa Bay is 9th in the MLB away (29-28). Even though Eddings calls a lot of strikes (64.80%) and has a high 3.21 K/BB ratio, his totals have gone 13-11 this season (4-1 on totals of 7 or less).

TB 170

TB o3 160

*SDQL stat: Rays are 3-1 this season avoiding 3 game sweeps. Two of those games were Hellickson starts in which he allowed 2ER each in games versus the Red Sox at Fenway.

*Confirmation bias stat: Kershaw owns one of the majors' worst run-support averages at 3.20 and Hellickson owns baseball's third-best run-support average at 6.54.

Is it fair/right to look at LHP splits and use them as a predictor against Kershaw? Sub 2 era, sub .200 baa, sub 1 whip is pretty unreal. Even the best lefties that TB has beaten (of the Lester, Sabathia, Doubront caliber) are a far cry from Kersh. Just glancing, I see a lot of Buehrle, Pettitte, Kuechel, Bedard twice, type of guys. Not being critical, I find myself asking (myself) these type of questions constantly in baseball.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Dickey has a 5.97 ERA at home.

A's over 4 -125

Thanks 50 yr old Darren Oliver

 

[ChainsawU]

Here are all the LHP Tampa beat this season and how they compare to Kershaw as a group. link

I omitted duplicates and weighted everything to number of innings pitched.

Just kind of ####### around w/it but looking back I wish I would have included BAA and WHIP.. already threw out all the webpages/data whatever, also wish I would haven't deleted duplicates oh well what am I a scientist

 

[ChainsawU]

Have to remember to fade the next pitcher to make their first start at Coors.

Forgot to do this with Bettis today. That makes two pretty good starts in a row for him after getting shelled at Turner Field his first start.

 

[got_nugs]

Hellickson is in trouble early.

 

[The Ref]

Chalk chalk chalk

32/500

Sea

Stl

Atl

Was

Tex

LAD

Det

This was an expensive loss.

 

[got_nugs]

Chalk chalk chalk

32/500

Sea

Stl

Atl

Was

Tex

LAD

Det

This was an expensive loss.

I was on this one with you....bull#### calls in this game PROBABLY cost a good chance at a Det win. Also we can blame ARoid for playing during the suspension.

 

[got_nugs]

Marmol is in? So you're saying TB o3 runs has a chance!

 

[ChainsawU]

Is it fair/right to look at LHP splits and use them as a predictor against Kershaw?

That’s why you are the guru, bro. I made a mistake and you noticed it immediately - I didn’t have a grip on who they had faced. Same thing I did with Colorado v RHP last road trip.

 

[ChainsawU]

Since 2009:

MLB teams are 680-744 (47.8%) in game 3 of a 3 game series avoiding the sweep.

MLB teams are 88-103 (46.1%) in game 4 of a 4 game series avoiding the sweep.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Kershaw has struck out 42.5% of LHB this year. Lefty OPS is .358.

 

[Angry Beavers]

Since 2009:

MLB teams are 680-744 (47.8%) in game 3 of a 3 game series avoiding the sweep.

MLB teams are 88-103 (46.1%) in game 4 of a 4 game series avoiding the sweep.

I thought there was more to this, like home and away splits. Something along the lines of home teams avoiding the sweep were much better plays that away teams avoiding the sweep. In any event, thanks for all the bases work you have been doing. It has been awesome!

 

[ChainsawU]

That's it, AB.

Avoiding 3-game sweep at home since 2004
SU: 650-563 (0.09, 53.6%)

Avoiding 3-game sweep away since 2004
SU: 764-1001 (-0.36, 43.3%)

Avoiding 4-game sweep at home since 2004
SU: 67-80 (-0.63, 45.6%)

Avoiding 4-game sweep away since 2004
SU: 83-127 (-0.94, 39.5%)

 

[shake zula]

MELZER over Monaco +155.

 

[ChainsawU]

Here is a tool that you can use to see a team's performance narrowed down between two dates. link

 

[swirvenirvin]

These are the FF stats I do on a yearly basis in excel spreadsheets. I use these for the future NFL bets and obviously for my FF drafts I still need to update the ADP's and the print pages, but the stats are up to date as of Saturday. I usually update them every few days. Could be beneficial to anyone who has some quirky scoring in some of your leagues, as you can add your league scoring to the scoring matrix and it should automatically update.

Any comments are welcome.

http://ffslickpicks.com/page/2013-FF-Stats.aspx

 

[derek245583]

If anyone is interested in an NFL calcutta, let me know...starts tonight

I think its a FBG who runs it honestly, not sure.

Edit to cut out the disgusting formatting

 

[derek245583]

Well that is the worst formatting I have ever seen

 

[derek245583]

-Based on the $ in the pot, they'll be pay outs:

23% - Super Bowl Champs ($1150 for a pot that =$5000)

14% - Super Bowl Runner Up ($700)

8% - Conference Championship Runner Ups (2 teams) - ($400)

5% - Make Playoffs, lose in Divisional (4 teams) - ($250)

2% - Lose in Wild Card Round (4 teams) - ($100)

1% - Wins Division (8 teams)- ($50)

1% - Teams with worst records (5 teams) - ($50)

.29411% - Highest scoring week (17 teams) ($14.70)

 

[LOCO]

I can't freaking wait. probably should have, but screw it. 8 team parlay

1. 8/29/2013 6:00 PM College Football 134 South Carolina* -400 vs North Carolina
2. 8/29/2013 10:00 PM College Football 146 Fresno State* -360 vs Rutgers
3. 8/29/2013 11:00 PM College Football 147 USC* -1900 vs Hawaii
4. 8/31/2013 5:30 PM College Football 171 Alabama* -1050 vs Virginia Tech
5. 8/31/2013 7:00 PM College Football 182 Oklahoma State* -440 vs Mississippi State
6. 8/31/2013 7:00 PM College Football 184 Oklahoma* -2200 vs UL Monroe
7. 8/31/2013 7:00 PM College Football 192 Florida* -2400 vs Toledo
8. 8/31/2013 9:00 PM College Football 207 LSU* -175 vs TCU

Risking $200.00 To Win $573.48

 

[ChainsawU]

Fister has allowed 4ER in 28 innings since the break facing @CLE, CHW, PHI, and @KC. Sale has the lowest run-support of any pitcher and the White Sox are 29th in runs scored. The Sox are kind of hot right now though, after scoring 33 runs the past seven days in home series versus the Yankees and Twins, which is why I think the line is so low, in addition to Sale's home ERA of 2.07. But the Tigers are 2-0 versus Sale in Chicago. Sale allowed 3ER in his home start versus the Tigers last year and they got 4 runs off him in Chicago back in July, scoring a total of 5 and 7 runs in those two games.

Det 115/100

 

[ChainsawU]

The Tigers are 9-9 SU in game 1 on the road this season. The RL is 9-0 in the wins, with an average of 5.6 runs scored for the Tigers and an average of 1.8 runs scored for the opponent.

 

[ChainsawU]

Tigers are 17-2 SU in game 1 at home.

 

[John Bender]

Boarding now for Vegas. Little drunk. I have 5 figures worth of Benjamins in my backpack with me. Will post updates here as necessary.

1 week in Vegas is the way I'd like to go out, so at least it'll be documented here.

 

[The Ref]

Arthur Brown down to -600

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Boarding now for Vegas. Little drunk. I have 5 figures worth of Benjamins in my backpack with me. Will post updates here as necessary.

1 week in Vegas is the way I'd like to go out, so at least it'll be documented here.

make sure to play 4 spins of roulette putting $5 (or more if you're a baller) each on 4 17 24 28 33. you will win...trust me

 

[got_nugs]

Boarding now for Vegas. Little drunk. I have 5 figures worth of Benjamins in my backpack with me. Will post updates here as necessary.

1 week in Vegas is the way I'd like to go out, so at least it'll be documented here.

make sure to play 4 spins of roulette putting $5 (or more if you're a baller) each on 4 17 24 28 33. you will win...trust me

. :sharkmove33:

 

[loser]

Phils +159

 

[The Ref]

Phil/Florida/OaklandOvernight

27/250

 

[modogg]

Fister has allowed 4ER in 28 innings since the break facing @CLE, CHW, PHI, and @KC. Sale has the lowest run-support of any pitcher and the White Sox are 29th in runs scored. The Sox are kind of hot right now though, after scoring 33 runs the past seven days in home series versus the Yankees and Twins, which is why I think the line is so low, in addition to Sale's home ERA of 2.07. But the Tigers are 2-0 versus Sale in Chicago. Sale allowed 3ER in his home start versus the Tigers last year and they got 4 runs off him in Chicago back in July, scoring a total of 5 and 7 runs in those two games.

Det 115/100

hoping to reverse jinx here, but man do i really hate the White Sox. This mother f'n team blows when ever i have put money on them or hoped for an over, and they show up out of nowhere with their b.s. line-up whenever i bet against them. it is crazy how these things work some seasons, but this team has to for a significant portion of my losses throughout this baseball season

 

[modogg]

Phils +159

nice call here Loser. I tailed, but completely ####'d out on the play and bought most of it out in live betting with taking Atl because it is hard having faith in the Phils and bullpen. This was when they were up 2-0, and if there is a common theme for Hammels games it is him getting a 1-0 lead or 2-0 before leaving the game, only to have the bullpen throw the game for him.

 

[Raider Nation]

nice call here Loser.

Never gets old.

 

[ChainsawU]

In 8 MLB games Will Little has called a low 62.68% K rate, with 2.41 K/BB and 2.0 HR/game. The home team is 7-1 SU and averages 5.9 runs scored (opponents average 3.6). His O/U is 6-2-0 with the average total set at 8.8. Both lineups have good success versus each team's starter.

PHI vs. ATL o8 -115

 

[John Bender]

12:27 hours (3:27 Philly time). 3 hot shooters in a row on the Craps table (including a marathon session by me puts me up +1700). Time to eat some tater tot nachos and sleep. I drank my weight in Maker's Mark tonight. Signing off.

 

[got_nugs]

Tater tot nachos in Vegas huh?

 

[John Bender]

I think that's what they were. Need some mlb bets please.

 

[optionmaven]

The White Sox won last night. They might have a few 2 game win streaks this yr and perhaps even a couple of 3's. Martingale the Tigers, they will win one in chicago....guaranteed. To win 1 unit ML and wagering 1 unit on the RL.

 

[got_nugs]

Fernandez(kc)and Harvey(lad)are in the +120's...any value in either?

 

[ChainsawU]

On that Sunday a few months ago it was obvious [Harvey] went out the night before. He was sweating profusely and came out to the mound with a big mouthful of chaw. Miami nights last forever baby.

Kellogg = same home plate umpire Harvey faced in his start back in June when he went 5 innings and gave up 4ER on 10 hits to the Marlins. Kellogg only calls strikes at a rate of 62.64% and averages 2.6 HR/game. His O/U is 14-10 and 7 of last 8 have gone over.

LAD o3 110/100

 

[ChainsawU]

I had a grip on the Dodgers last night and just remember thinking the whole game that they were just waiting for tonight when it really mattered.

LAD -120

 

[Angry Beavers]

Laa/nyy o 8.5 -105. CC has been terrible and Vargas isn't great either.

GLTA

AB

 

[loser]

The Padres have been held to three runs or less in six straight, and have hit .199 L10 vs. righties. Stults has given up 2 ER in 16 IP vs the Rocks this year, including 1 ER in 7 IP @ Coors on June 8.

Pads/Rocks F5 u5.5 -110

Pads/Rocks u10 -110

O's/Dbacks F5 u4.5 -105

O's/Dbacks u9 -125

GL

 

[The Ref]

31/1000

Rangers

Rays

Dodgers

Braves -1.5

Cardinals Tigers -1.5

Overnight Rays -1.5

 

[Ignoramus]

Laa/nyy o 8.5 -105. CC has been terrible and Vargas isn't great either.

GLTA

AB

In.

 

[The Ref]

I hate to make a bet where you tug on supermans cape, but the numbers are the numbers. Scherzer has only struck out 7 or more 2 of his last 6. He faced the CWS twice in that span and didn't make it to 7.

Right now you can get under 6.5 for +105

 

[The Ref]

Do one of you guys remember what the price was on the Notre Dame ML for the NC game vs bama?