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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (14 Viewers)

tjnc09 said:
Raider Nation said:
tjnc09 said:
GPJ, I hope if you did play those picks yesterday you did it again today. Got it all back barring Angels collapse
Click to expand...
So we're just playing the RLs and totals from here on in?
Click to expand...
No, just not huge favorite MLs.

There are also other situations I want to look at. For example, I projected almost identical runs for Tor/Bos (although my total was off) and Min/SD. Min and Tor were both big underdogs, so that should be a +EV spot.
Click to expand...
I'm just wondering what to do when I have a disagreement with you. Last Friday night, for example. I was on the DET/BOS under and I couldn't comprehend how your model advised an over play between Scherzer and Lester. That was the 1-0 final. Now, there have been numerous other times when you were on the right side and I wasn't. But my larger point is, do I (we) just suck it up and play what your model recommends, even if we strongly disagree with it? Will the math win out overall in the end?

 
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Raider Nation said:
Remember when I took the A's on Friday night @ Cleveland, and they beat the Tribe 11-1? They scored 8 runs in the 2nd. CLE's starting pitcher that night (McAllister) is going tomorrow at noon against Max, who is 3-0, 2.17 in his last four starts in Cleveland. He's also won six straight overall with a microscopic ERA, and Detroit is trying to avoid the sweep.

Could the Tigers have any more going for them tomorrow?
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McAllister isn't as bad as he was last Friday, and the Tribe hit well at home.http://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/2014-mlb-betting-public-report/

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Raider Nation said:
Remember when I took the A's on Friday night @ Cleveland, and they beat the Tribe 11-1? They scored 8 runs in the 2nd. CLE's starting pitcher that night (McAllister) is going tomorrow at noon against Max, who is 3-0, 2.17 in his last four starts in Cleveland. He's also won six straight overall with a microscopic ERA, and Detroit is trying to avoid the sweep.

Could the Tigers have any more going for them tomorrow?
Click to expand...
McAllister isn't as bad as he was last Friday, and the Tribe hit well at home.

http://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/2014-mlb-betting-public-report/
Click to expand...
He's trending downward, yo.

Scheduled Indians starter Zach McAllister (3-4, 5.36) posted a 1.37 ERA while winning three straight starts from April 9-21, but is 0-4 with an 8.72 ERA in the following five.
Click to expand...
 
His k/bb is better in those last five starts, it's just that his hr/fb got normal and his babip skyrocketed.

He's also much better at home. Dunno if i'd play him, just saying it probably wont be as easy as it looks.

 
McAllister 2-0 SU with 3ER in 14 IP since 2012 after going less than 3 IP in his previous start. He is 5-0 SU with 8ER allowed in 32.1 IP since 2012 after going 4 or less innings in his previous start.

Today will be Max Scherzer's earliest start time in his career. But that might not matter since he is 23-8 SU (2-2 away) in his career in games starting at 1:10 PM EST or earlier (avg start time 1:06 PM EST).

 
Raider Nation said:
tjnc09 said:
Raider Nation said:
tjnc09 said:
GPJ, I hope if you did play those picks yesterday you did it again today. Got it all back barring Angels collapse
Click to expand...
So we're just playing the RLs and totals from here on in?
Click to expand...
No, just not huge favorite MLs.

There are also other situations I want to look at. For example, I projected almost identical runs for Tor/Bos (although my total was off) and Min/SD. Min and Tor were both big underdogs, so that should be a +EV spot.
Click to expand...
I'm just wondering what to do when I have a disagreement with you. Last Friday night, for example. I was on the DET/BOS under and I couldn't comprehend how your model advised an over play between Scherzer and Lester. That was the 1-0 final. Now, there have been numerous other times when you were on the right side and I wasn't. But my larger point is, do I (we) just suck it up and play what your model recommends, even if we strongly disagree with it? Will the math win out overall in the end?
Click to expand...
Look, all I've done is post 18-16 +.06u. For all I know, fading my model might be profitable. What I do know is I have a strong quant background and love all the advanced stats in baseball. Baseball is all about volume - the more data you have, the more credible it is.

I will tell you the two strongest totals I had tonight were Oak/TB 10 vs a line of 8 and Bos/Tor under 8 vs a line of 9.5. I didn't play the CWS/KC over because of .06runs again :shrug: Baseball to me is ignoring the variance. Sometimes the Astros suck. Sometimes they don't.

If you disagree with me, by all means, fade me.

 
ChainsawU said:
McAllister 2-0 SU with 3ER in 14 IP since 2012 after going less than 3 IP in his previous start. He is 5-0 SU with 8ER allowed in 32.1 IP since 2012 after going 4 or less innings in his previous start.

Today will be Max Scherzer's earliest start time in his career. But that might not matter since he is 23-8 SU (2-2 away) in his career in games starting at 1:10 PM EST or earlier (avg start time 1:06 PM EST).
Click to expand...
My model says whatever Chain recommends :bowtie:

 
Scherzer's last three losses have all been on the road on four days of rest. Oops. No that's wrong. But all of his last seven losses have been on the road, three of them on four days of rest.

Indians +140

Based on the early start time, even though Scherzer and the Tigers have dominated the Indians. It's the earliest start of Max's career and the Tribe is 8-1 SU at their house when they start at noon since last season.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
tjnc09 said:
Raider Nation said:
tjnc09 said:
Raider Nation said:
tjnc09 said:
GPJ, I hope if you did play those picks yesterday you did it again today. Got it all back barring Angels collapse
Click to expand...
So we're just playing the RLs and totals from here on in?
Click to expand...
No, just not huge favorite MLs. There are also other situations I want to look at. For example, I projected almost identical runs for Tor/Bos (although my total was off) and Min/SD. Min and Tor were both big underdogs, so that should be a +EV spot.
Click to expand...
I'm just wondering what to do when I have a disagreement with you. Last Friday night, for example. I was on the DET/BOS under and I couldn't comprehend how your model advised an over play between Scherzer and Lester. That was the 1-0 final. Now, there have been numerous other times when you were on the right side and I wasn't. But my larger point is, do I (we) just suck it up and play what your model recommends, even if we strongly disagree with it? Will the math win out overall in the end?
Click to expand...
Look, all I've done is post 18-16 +.06u. For all I know, fading my model might be profitable. What I do know is I have a strong quant background and love all the advanced stats in baseball. Baseball is all about volume - the more data you have, the more credible it is. I will tell you the two strongest totals I had tonight were Oak/TB 10 vs a line of 8 and Bos/Tor under 8 vs a line of 9.5. I didn't play the CWS/KC over because of .06runs again :shrug: Baseball to me is ignoring the variance. Sometimes the Astros suck. Sometimes they don't.

If you disagree with me, by all means, fade me.
Click to expand...
Disagreeing with you /= fading you. It = disagreeing with you.

I'm sure it won't happen that often, anyway, where I have a super-strong conviction and you're on the other side.

 
Guess I'll hold off on Max then. I generally don't like laying a heavy number on the road, anyway. And I certainly don't want to get up at noon. :bag: I'll be up before the 2:00 starts to see what y'all like.

 
Raider Nation said:
lumpy19 said:
Raider Nation said:
I did a quick thread search and didn't find much. Lumpy mentioned sportsbetting.ag and wagerweb, but both of them took a beating in the online reviews I read.
Click to expand...
Do not play at Wagerweb if u want a quick payout.

5dimes

Bookmaker

Betdsi

Heritage

Betonline

Sportsbetting.ag
Click to expand...
Payout times good with these three? And no max payout amount restrictions? ($2,500 per check at SB, for example).
Click to expand...
Every site has max payout restrictions

 
"Good said:
His k/bb is better in those last five starts, it's just that his hr/fb got normal and his babip skyrocketed.

He's also much better at home. Dunno if i'd play him, just saying it probably wont be as easy as it looks.
Click to expand...
He did make it through 2 innings today.

Who would have thought Max would be even worse?

 
ChainsawU said:
Samardzija has a 1.48 ERA in four starts at Wrigley this season. The Cubs are 0-4 in those four games, 0-5 L5 Samardzija starts at Wrigley, and 6-15 L21 Samardzija starts at Wrigley since 2013 (avg line -110).
Click to expand...
Opposing team is now 16-6 SU in Samardzija starts at Wrigley since 2013 and 6-0 L6 with an avg line of 100.7 with a ROI of +42.2% since 2013.

 
tjnc09 said:
lumpy19 said:
tjnc09 said:
Does anyone know of another book that posts the alternative run lines for underdogs besides Bovada?
Click to expand...
5dimes
Click to expand...
Oh in the drop downs. Whoops!
Click to expand...
I was wondering why you were looking for alternate run lines. I was so confused as to shy you weren't going to 5d for them. Also.. man.. don't forget about the build-your-own -1 line calculator. 5d cuts you off at the knees if you try to bet their -1 lines from the drop down menu.

 
Naturally, this Samardzija start is gonna be the easiest under EVER. Not the one against the Brewers the other day in 16° weather when I had my twig & berries on the under.

:rolleyes:

 
ChainsawU said:
tjnc09 said:
lumpy19 said:
tjnc09 said:
Does anyone know of another book that posts the alternative run lines for underdogs besides Bovada?
Click to expand...
5dimes
Click to expand...
Oh in the drop downs. Whoops!
Click to expand...
I was wondering why you were looking for alternate run lines. I was so confused as to shy you weren't going to 5d for them. Also.. man.. don't forget about the build-your-own -1 line calculator. 5d cuts you off at the knees if you try to bet their -1 lines from the drop down menu.
Click to expand...
I figured of anywhere 5d would have them but didn't think to click the giant drop down box under run lines. And yeah, you are absolutely right, buying pts is usually a really bad position. There are still some select spots where it makes sense even w the extra juice

 
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