Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
Finless
Footballguy
I think the Skins get dominated most likely. I think Cousins is too green for that Seahawk defense. Could be a blowout.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Here is PFF rating vs the CB they should see the most of. High is better matchup (the CB sucks) from 0-100
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Cain OVER: R+H+RBI o2 +130
got_nugs
Footballguy
-When Saw posts this stuff the correct answer is either "thank you" or "tailed". No other acceptable responses. After it hits you'll get some leeway. I prefer SAUGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH or the like.
-#threadiquette
-Wake Forest is pathetic. FSU getting back 3 starters on defense that were out last week plus Pender at RB. I'm taking them -38. Is there a site that posts current odds to win the title this year? That's right, wearing my Weinke jammys tonight baby!
-finny-I have a Bovada acct
-Ruds-"we"
-WillBats-IN!
ok, caught up
Finless
Footballguy
got_nugs
Footballguy
Finless
Footballguy
yes, pokers and gambling
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
Homer play:
Dallas-6.5. Houston cannot score enough to keep up with the Cowboys. Houston has major problems with depth in the secondary and they can't stop the run. Foster is hamstrung, Blue can't pass protect, and if Houston has to put the ball in Fitzpatrick's hand, this could get ugly.
If you want to play it, do it now because it will cross 7.
Dallas-6.5. Houston cannot score enough to keep up with the Cowboys. Houston has major problems with depth in the secondary and they can't stop the run. Foster is hamstrung, Blue can't pass protect, and if Houston has to put the ball in Fitzpatrick's hand, this could get ugly.
If you want to play it, do it now because it will cross 7.
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Since 1989, West Coast teams traveling to the Eastern time zone to play SNF and MNF:
SU: 21-11-0 (8.81, 65.6%)
ATS: 23-9-0 (8.56, 71.9%) avg line: -0.2
O/U: 16-16-0 (3.89, 50.0%) avg total: 42.6 link
That's pretty good in the first place, but when you filter out those results to only show the teams that were favored to win you get:
SU: 11-3-0 (18.36, 78.6%)
ATS: 11-3-0 (12.39, 78.6%) avg line: -6.0
O/U: 7-7-0 (4.93, 50.0%) avg total: 42.1 link
The average margin of victory in those 11 wins as the favorite was 25.8 ±11.8 points per game.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Cowturd wouldn't know a football from a toaster.
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
FWIW, I'll be in Indy for Colts v. Ravens. Indy is 2-1 ATS and SU last 3 years when I am there including a win v. Seattle last year. HTH
modogg
Footballguy
yeah, didn't mean to sound like a d-bag or anything, i was just wondering about stats like these. They seem to be just kind of arbitrary because the samples they are pulling from can vary so much from year to year. Basically was wondering if i was missing something by not paying attn. to stats like these, and if they hold up pretty well.
I remember one of the biggest one's has always been west coast teams playing 1:00 games. and that one seemed to hold up for awhile too, but i always thought it was because the NFC west used to be mediocre and some of those other teams on the West Coast
cough, cough: Raiders), have a tendency to blow year after year. You don't seem to hear about it as much now that teams like Seattle and some others have really improved overall. kind of like the old 3-year rule for WRs that everybody was loving years ago in fantasy football. It seemed like it applied one year and everybody was head over heels about it until a few years later when they realized that is varies greatly depending on quite a few variables
ChainsawU
Footballguy
I agree with AB and would pick the Colts. The Ravens have never played Luck at his house. Luck is 11-3 SU when the opposing team is seeing him at home for the first time (8-5-1 ATS against an avg line of -0.6). And he's 8-1 SU and 5-3-1 ATS (avg line -1.0) against the AFC in that situation.
I thought last week that Carolina would look at what the Browns did on defense to stop the Ravens back in week three in Cleveland. The Ravens barely won that week-three game in the last minute with a field-goal drive in the two-minute drill in the fourth quarter. Cleveland kept that game close despite missing a field-goal, having a field-goal blocked, committing 12 penalties, and having their dude fall down on a play that would have been an easy TD. Cleveland should have beat the Ravens in week three.
As it turned out in "the revenge game," the Ravens and Steve Smith played out of their minds versus the RB-less Panthers (Tonydead>Hi) and cost me some coin, and the public is all over them this week as a result. Big picture though, the Ravens are only 3-6 SU on the road since last season, and that is including the win they squeaked out in Cleveland two weeks ago. I just figured out my action junkie play for noon on Sunday is. I'll be on the Colts now, just have to figure out how.
I have family in the area and a bunch of Detroit guys going with us. Thanks though.Big fan of Ford Field.
Last edited by a moderator:
modogg
Footballguy
hmm, good stuff here bud. Didn't think of the Colts as much of an option with those big 4 as looking like obvious plays. but you are making a lot of sense here
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
Dallas offensive line is for real. Dallas -6.5, bank it brohans.
jamil
Footballguy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
This has to be the strangest MLBpost season ever so far. No rhyme nor reason for the way these games are playing out.
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
JJ Watt suckles your mom's teet.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Las Vegas Sharps Report, Week 5
Finless
Footballguy
jamil
Footballguy
Lucky girl.
Does dez still have a curfew?
Sunday can't come fast enough. Good luck!
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
the old-school Steve Young/Jim McMahon unis.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
We talk to Jay Rood, Director of Race and Sports at MGM properties in Las Vegas, about the biggest line moves on the Week 6 board and where those odds could end up come kickoff:
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Don't you just have to keep betting against SMU with both fists until they come within a mile or so of covering a spread?
NIU Kicker
Footballguy
I'm now 0-1,384,028,838 on betting games with Syracuse Football.
I swear I could bet both sides and the game would end up a tie.
I swear I could bet both sides and the game would end up a tie.
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
Bama 27-20
Miss st 34-30
ND 23-20
Auburn 34-23
Mich St. 37-28
Okl 27-24
FSU 52-3
Ga 44-6
Baylor 34-23
USC 42-23
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
got_nugs
Footballguy
Did he have a lock of the week mentioned? Upset special? Will you fluff my pillow?
eta thanks bud
Last edited by a moderator:
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Why, you're shocked at 19 runs in a Kershaw/Waino battle and a pitchers duel with Shoes/Ventura??
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Steele: Week 6 picks | Harris: Best bets | CFB PickCenter | ESPN Chalk
Each week during the 2014 college football season, I will offer my picks and scores for the biggest games, in addition to a handful of other key matchups.
Last week, my picks went 9-1 straight up and 5-4-1 against the spread. My overall record stands at 40-10 SU and 26-23-1 ATS.
Week 6 brings us the best slate of games to date, including six matchups between ranked teams, and we are guaranteed to see at least four teams fall from the ranks of the unbeaten.
No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide (-6.5) at No. 11 Ole Miss Rebels
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
The Crimson Tide have won 10 in a row in this series, and in their past two trips to Oxford they have won by a combined score of 74-10. Last year, Ole Miss QB Bo Wallace made some comments about being able to put some points on the Tide defense and Alabama felt disrespected. Bama responded with a 25-0 win, becoming the first No. 1-ranked team to shut out an opposing ranked team since 2001.
Insider PickCenter
Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision. PickCenter
This year, Alabama comes in fresh off a bye after destroying Florida 42-21 and piling up 645 yards, the most ever allowed by a Gators team. However, this is the Tide's first true road test of the season, and it will be interesting to see how quarterbackBlake Sims does in a hostile environment. While he has played brilliantly to date, with 1,077 pass yards and 10 total touchdowns, he will be facing an Ole Miss defense that has allowed just two touchdowns through four games, fewest in the nation.
The key to the game will be which quarterback can take better care of the football. Wallace's entire career has been marred by turnovers, and he has six interceptions already this year (33 total in his career). On the other side, the Crimson Tide were careless with the football against Florida, and turning it over four times in Oxford will get them beat.
What's a little surprising to me is that my computer -- with all its power ratings, data and statistics -- is calling for the Rebels to pull off the upset, but I will disagree with technology and take the Tide to make it 11 straight over the Rebels.
Pick: Alabama 27, Ole Miss 20
No. 6 Texas A&M Aggies at No. 12 Mississippi State Bulldogs (-2)
Saturday at noon ET, ESPN
Since joining the SEC, the Aggies have won both matchups by double digits. Two years ago in Starkville, the two teams were ranked in the top 20, but A&M absolutely dominated en route to a 31-0 first-half lead. The Aggies would cruise to a 38-13 win. Last year, they led 51-27 in the middle of the fourth quarter, but Mississippi State made it respectable with a couple of late touchdowns.
This season, the unbeaten Aggies come in off a hard-fought, come-from-behind 35-28 win over Arkansas. They were down 28-14 in the fourth quarter before Arkansas made a couple of mistakes (a penalty wiping out a touchdown, bobbled snap and missed FG) and QB Kenny Hilltook advantage, throwing for 200-plus yards and three touchdowns in the fourth quarter and overtime.
The Bulldogs are fresh off a bye, and the week before they made a statement with a win in Death Valley over LSU. The Bulldogs' 570 total yards were the most they've gained against an SEC opponent under coach Dan Mullen, and QB Dak Prescott deserves to be in the Heisman race, as he is averaging 336 total yards per game, with 14 total touchdowns.
I like the Bulldogs here for a couple of reasons. First, this might be one of my favorite situational plays of the week as this will be Texas A&M's third straight away game and sixth game in six weeks overall, while the Bulldogs have had two weeks to prepare. Also, I think the matchups favor the more physical Bulldogs, as A&M allowed 285 rush yards last week while MSU had a season-high 302 rush yards against LSU on the road two weeks ago. With those two factors in mind, I look for the Bulldogs to get the win in a battle of unbeatens, and for Prescott to overtake Hill on many Heisman ballots.
Pick: Mississippi State 34, Texas A&M 30
No. 14 Stanford Cardinal (-2) at No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
Notre Dame had won seven in a row in this series -- from 2002 to 2008 -- but Stanford has won four of the past five. There was a controversial ending two years ago, as Cardinal RB Stepfan Taylor was ruled down on fourth-and-goal in overtime and the Cardinal lost 20-13. Last year, Stanford was out for revenge and managed a 27-20 win against a very banged-up Notre Dame team.
[+] Enlarge
Rich Barnes/USA TODAY SportsEverett Golson threw for 362 yards and four touchdowns against Syracuse last week.
The Irish come in to this matchup a perfect 4-0, and last week QB Everett Golson completed a school-record 25 straight passes (one off the FBS record). Despite committing five turnovers, the Irish beat Syracuse 31-15 and had a dominating 311-142 yardage edge at the half. On the other side, the Cardinal found themselves in a 13-13 game at Washington, but a failed fake-punt attempt by the Huskies allowed Stanford to drive for a game-winning touchdown. The Cardinal can ill afford another loss if they want to make the initial College Football Playoff.
It will be strength against strength here, as the Irish have scored 30 or more points in the first four games of the season for the first time since 1943, but they will be tested against the No. 1 total and scoring defense in the country, as the Cardinal are allowing just 198 yards per game and seven points per game.
The Irish are getting points in this one, despite the fact that they are on a 15-1 run at home and Golson is a perfect 14-0 as a starting quarterback in the regular season. With that in mind, I'll call for the Irish to take another step toward what has been a surprising 2014 season.
Pick: Notre Dame 23, Stanford 20
No. 15 LSU Tigers at No. 5 Auburn Tigers (-7.5)
Saturday at 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
There's only one SEC program that's beaten Auburn six times in the past seven years, and that's LSU, which has done so by an average of 11 points per game. The Tigers from the Plains have not scored more than 24 points in any of those seven games, while LSU has scored 30 or more four times. Last year, LSU jumped out to a 21-0 lead as the rain affected Auburn's offense in the first half. Coming out of halftime, Gus Malzahn thought his offense would be in good shape with the rain letting up, and Auburn did put up 318 yards in the second half but still lost 35-21.
Auburn comes in 4-0, but after compiling a record 13-game ATS win streak, the Tigers failed to beat the Las Vegas experts in each of the past two weeks. However, this week's 7.5-point line seems reasonable, as this will be the first true away game for many of LSU's young skill position players, including true freshman quarterback Brandon Harris, who will get his first career start.
On the other side of the ball, I look for Auburn's rush offense to take advantage of an LSU rush defense that allowed 268 yards (6.9 yards per carry) to Wisconsin and 302 yards (6.2) to Mississippi State.
Pick: Auburn 34, LSU 23
No. 19 Nebraska Cornhuskers at No. 10 Michigan State Spartans (-7)
Saturday at 8 p.m. ET, ABC
Nebraska had won all seven games in this series until Michigan State got a 41-28 win last year in Lincoln. The final was a bit misleading, as the Huskers had a 392-361 edge in yards. But Nebraska turned the ball over five times, which the Spartans converted into 24 points. Also notable is the fact that the Huskers managed 182 rush yards against a Spartans defense that was allowing just 43 rush yards per game prior to that.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Nati HarnikAmeer Abdullah has racked up 437 rushing yards and five touchdowns in the past two games.
The matchup everyone will be watching is how Nebraska running back Ameer Abdullah and his nation-leading 833 rush yards fare against a Michigan State defense that is allowing just 78 rush yards per game. While it would not surprise me to see Abdullah get his fair share of yards in this one, I think the matchup on the other side of the ball gives the Spartans the leg up.
This is not a "three yards and a cloud of dust" Michigan State offense, as the Spartans are averaging 50 points per game while showing incredible balance. They are averaging 252 yards per game on the ground and 263 yards through the air. On the other side, the Nebraska defense allowed 359 pass yards to Miami true freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya a couple of weeks ago, and now face the veteran Connor Cook, who is completing 69 percent of his passes, with a 9-2 TD-to-INT ratio. I'll call for the Spartans to take a major step in getting back into the playoff discussion.
Pick: Michigan State 37, Nebraska 28
No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners (-5) at No. 25 TCU Horned Frogs
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
Four of the past five games between these two teams have been decided by a touchdown or less, including last year's 20-17 Sooners victory in Norman. While the Sooners are coming off a bye, this will be their third road trip in four games, and they have the Red River Rivalry on deck. On the other side, the Horned Frogs had lowly SMU last week and a bye the week before, and they should be highly motivated to show that their 4-8 record last year was a fluke.
The marquee matchup will be an Oklahoma offense averaging 45 points per game and 223 rush yards per game versus a TCU defense that ranks No. 2 in the country in both scoring and total defense.
However, the matchup on the other side of the ball will ultimately determine the outcome. TCU is averaging 45 points per game and 532 yards per game, but has played only Samford, Minnesota and SMU, while the Sooners' defense could be the best they've had in Norman since the early part of Bob Stoops' tenure. I look for this one to go down to the wire, but the Sooners have been more battled-tested to date.
Pick: Oklahoma 27, TCU 24
Quick Hitters
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at No. 1 Florida State Seminoles (-39)
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Shockingly, these two have split their past eight meetings; of course, Florida State has won the most recent two by a combined score of 111-3. While the defending champs are 4-0 this year, the Seminoles have failed to cover the spread in each of their games; last week, in a 56-41 road win over N.C. State, they allowed a school-record 24 first-quarter points. On the other side, the Demon Deacons are coming off a misleading 20-10 loss at Louisville, as they were outgained 421-100 and their only touchdown came via a recovered fumble in the end zone. They are actually averaging minus-17 rush yards per game away from home, and have given up 21 sacks in those three games. That's not good news against a team needing a statement win. FSU gets its first cover of 2014.
Pick: Florida State 52, Wake Forest 3
Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 13 Georgia Bulldogs (-32)
Saturday at 4 p.m. ET, SEC Network
Georgia is clearly playing for legitimate revenge this year, as the Bulldogs blew a 10-point halftime lead in this matchup in 2013. The key play of that game happened when Vanderbilt was stopped on fourth down in the second half, but Georgia was flagged for targeting and that fueled the Vandy comeback. The Bulldogs are playing their third straight home game, while the Commodores are on the road for a second straight week. I am expecting Georgia defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt to have his troops playing angry. Following the poor defensive performance against South Carolina, the Bulldogs shut out Troy. Vanderbilt gained only 139 yards last week, which were the fewest allowed by Kentucky in an SEC game since 1996. Despite having a big game against Missouri on deck, I look for the Bulldogs to take care of business.
Pick: Georgia 44, Vanderbilt 6
No. 7 Baylor Bears (-16.5) at Texas Longhorns
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Texas had beaten Baylor 12 straight years -- from 1998 to 2009 -- before Baylor won three of the past four. This was basically the de facto Big 12 title game last season, and it was tied 3-3 at halftime. Baylor pulled away in the end, securing its first conference title since 1980. The Longhorns are coming off a 23-0 shutout of Kansas last week, and I expect them to continue to show improvement after the wheels fell off against BYU. On the other side, the Bears come in 4-0 and are outscoring their foes by 43 points per game, while outgaining them by 416 yards per game. On paper, this looks like a significant mismatch; however, while going through my records that date back to 1976, this will be the largest underdog role Texas has faced at home during that time, and I will call for them to keep it closer than the Vegas experts think.
Pick: Baylor 34, Texas 23
Arizona State Sun Devils at USC Trojans (-12)
Saturday at 7:20 p.m. ET
USC is playing with legit revenge on its mind after a 62-41 trouncing on the road at Arizona State last year; then-head coach Lane Kiffin was fired when the team landed back home in Los Angeles. USC had been 12-1 in this series prior to that loss. These two teams come into this matchup from very different spots, as USC mauled Oregon State 35-10, including a 461-181 yardage edge, and the Beavers' only touchdown was a 97-yard kick return. The Sun Devils are coming off of a 62-27 loss at the hands of UCLA; they were outscored 42-3 in approximately 20 minutes of game time after racing out to a 17-6 second-quarter lead. This will be Sun Devils QB Mike Bercovici's first road start, and that does not bode well against a USC defense that is allowing just 156 pass yards per game and a 52 percent completion rate. I look for the Trojans to get their revenge in a big way.
Pick: USC 42, Arizona State 23
Each week during the 2014 college football season, I will offer my picks and scores for the biggest games, in addition to a handful of other key matchups.
Last week, my picks went 9-1 straight up and 5-4-1 against the spread. My overall record stands at 40-10 SU and 26-23-1 ATS.
Week 6 brings us the best slate of games to date, including six matchups between ranked teams, and we are guaranteed to see at least four teams fall from the ranks of the unbeaten.
No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide (-6.5) at No. 11 Ole Miss Rebels
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
The Crimson Tide have won 10 in a row in this series, and in their past two trips to Oxford they have won by a combined score of 74-10. Last year, Ole Miss QB Bo Wallace made some comments about being able to put some points on the Tide defense and Alabama felt disrespected. Bama responded with a 25-0 win, becoming the first No. 1-ranked team to shut out an opposing ranked team since 2001.
Insider PickCenter
Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision. PickCenter
This year, Alabama comes in fresh off a bye after destroying Florida 42-21 and piling up 645 yards, the most ever allowed by a Gators team. However, this is the Tide's first true road test of the season, and it will be interesting to see how quarterbackBlake Sims does in a hostile environment. While he has played brilliantly to date, with 1,077 pass yards and 10 total touchdowns, he will be facing an Ole Miss defense that has allowed just two touchdowns through four games, fewest in the nation.
The key to the game will be which quarterback can take better care of the football. Wallace's entire career has been marred by turnovers, and he has six interceptions already this year (33 total in his career). On the other side, the Crimson Tide were careless with the football against Florida, and turning it over four times in Oxford will get them beat.
What's a little surprising to me is that my computer -- with all its power ratings, data and statistics -- is calling for the Rebels to pull off the upset, but I will disagree with technology and take the Tide to make it 11 straight over the Rebels.
Pick: Alabama 27, Ole Miss 20
No. 6 Texas A&M Aggies at No. 12 Mississippi State Bulldogs (-2)
Saturday at noon ET, ESPN
Since joining the SEC, the Aggies have won both matchups by double digits. Two years ago in Starkville, the two teams were ranked in the top 20, but A&M absolutely dominated en route to a 31-0 first-half lead. The Aggies would cruise to a 38-13 win. Last year, they led 51-27 in the middle of the fourth quarter, but Mississippi State made it respectable with a couple of late touchdowns.
This season, the unbeaten Aggies come in off a hard-fought, come-from-behind 35-28 win over Arkansas. They were down 28-14 in the fourth quarter before Arkansas made a couple of mistakes (a penalty wiping out a touchdown, bobbled snap and missed FG) and QB Kenny Hilltook advantage, throwing for 200-plus yards and three touchdowns in the fourth quarter and overtime.
The Bulldogs are fresh off a bye, and the week before they made a statement with a win in Death Valley over LSU. The Bulldogs' 570 total yards were the most they've gained against an SEC opponent under coach Dan Mullen, and QB Dak Prescott deserves to be in the Heisman race, as he is averaging 336 total yards per game, with 14 total touchdowns.
I like the Bulldogs here for a couple of reasons. First, this might be one of my favorite situational plays of the week as this will be Texas A&M's third straight away game and sixth game in six weeks overall, while the Bulldogs have had two weeks to prepare. Also, I think the matchups favor the more physical Bulldogs, as A&M allowed 285 rush yards last week while MSU had a season-high 302 rush yards against LSU on the road two weeks ago. With those two factors in mind, I look for the Bulldogs to get the win in a battle of unbeatens, and for Prescott to overtake Hill on many Heisman ballots.
Pick: Mississippi State 34, Texas A&M 30
No. 14 Stanford Cardinal (-2) at No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
Notre Dame had won seven in a row in this series -- from 2002 to 2008 -- but Stanford has won four of the past five. There was a controversial ending two years ago, as Cardinal RB Stepfan Taylor was ruled down on fourth-and-goal in overtime and the Cardinal lost 20-13. Last year, Stanford was out for revenge and managed a 27-20 win against a very banged-up Notre Dame team.
[+] Enlarge
Rich Barnes/USA TODAY SportsEverett Golson threw for 362 yards and four touchdowns against Syracuse last week.
The Irish come in to this matchup a perfect 4-0, and last week QB Everett Golson completed a school-record 25 straight passes (one off the FBS record). Despite committing five turnovers, the Irish beat Syracuse 31-15 and had a dominating 311-142 yardage edge at the half. On the other side, the Cardinal found themselves in a 13-13 game at Washington, but a failed fake-punt attempt by the Huskies allowed Stanford to drive for a game-winning touchdown. The Cardinal can ill afford another loss if they want to make the initial College Football Playoff.
It will be strength against strength here, as the Irish have scored 30 or more points in the first four games of the season for the first time since 1943, but they will be tested against the No. 1 total and scoring defense in the country, as the Cardinal are allowing just 198 yards per game and seven points per game.
The Irish are getting points in this one, despite the fact that they are on a 15-1 run at home and Golson is a perfect 14-0 as a starting quarterback in the regular season. With that in mind, I'll call for the Irish to take another step toward what has been a surprising 2014 season.
Pick: Notre Dame 23, Stanford 20
No. 15 LSU Tigers at No. 5 Auburn Tigers (-7.5)
Saturday at 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
There's only one SEC program that's beaten Auburn six times in the past seven years, and that's LSU, which has done so by an average of 11 points per game. The Tigers from the Plains have not scored more than 24 points in any of those seven games, while LSU has scored 30 or more four times. Last year, LSU jumped out to a 21-0 lead as the rain affected Auburn's offense in the first half. Coming out of halftime, Gus Malzahn thought his offense would be in good shape with the rain letting up, and Auburn did put up 318 yards in the second half but still lost 35-21.
Auburn comes in 4-0, but after compiling a record 13-game ATS win streak, the Tigers failed to beat the Las Vegas experts in each of the past two weeks. However, this week's 7.5-point line seems reasonable, as this will be the first true away game for many of LSU's young skill position players, including true freshman quarterback Brandon Harris, who will get his first career start.
On the other side of the ball, I look for Auburn's rush offense to take advantage of an LSU rush defense that allowed 268 yards (6.9 yards per carry) to Wisconsin and 302 yards (6.2) to Mississippi State.
Pick: Auburn 34, LSU 23
No. 19 Nebraska Cornhuskers at No. 10 Michigan State Spartans (-7)
Saturday at 8 p.m. ET, ABC
Nebraska had won all seven games in this series until Michigan State got a 41-28 win last year in Lincoln. The final was a bit misleading, as the Huskers had a 392-361 edge in yards. But Nebraska turned the ball over five times, which the Spartans converted into 24 points. Also notable is the fact that the Huskers managed 182 rush yards against a Spartans defense that was allowing just 43 rush yards per game prior to that.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Nati HarnikAmeer Abdullah has racked up 437 rushing yards and five touchdowns in the past two games.
The matchup everyone will be watching is how Nebraska running back Ameer Abdullah and his nation-leading 833 rush yards fare against a Michigan State defense that is allowing just 78 rush yards per game. While it would not surprise me to see Abdullah get his fair share of yards in this one, I think the matchup on the other side of the ball gives the Spartans the leg up.
This is not a "three yards and a cloud of dust" Michigan State offense, as the Spartans are averaging 50 points per game while showing incredible balance. They are averaging 252 yards per game on the ground and 263 yards through the air. On the other side, the Nebraska defense allowed 359 pass yards to Miami true freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya a couple of weeks ago, and now face the veteran Connor Cook, who is completing 69 percent of his passes, with a 9-2 TD-to-INT ratio. I'll call for the Spartans to take a major step in getting back into the playoff discussion.
Pick: Michigan State 37, Nebraska 28
No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners (-5) at No. 25 TCU Horned Frogs
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
Four of the past five games between these two teams have been decided by a touchdown or less, including last year's 20-17 Sooners victory in Norman. While the Sooners are coming off a bye, this will be their third road trip in four games, and they have the Red River Rivalry on deck. On the other side, the Horned Frogs had lowly SMU last week and a bye the week before, and they should be highly motivated to show that their 4-8 record last year was a fluke.
The marquee matchup will be an Oklahoma offense averaging 45 points per game and 223 rush yards per game versus a TCU defense that ranks No. 2 in the country in both scoring and total defense.
However, the matchup on the other side of the ball will ultimately determine the outcome. TCU is averaging 45 points per game and 532 yards per game, but has played only Samford, Minnesota and SMU, while the Sooners' defense could be the best they've had in Norman since the early part of Bob Stoops' tenure. I look for this one to go down to the wire, but the Sooners have been more battled-tested to date.
Pick: Oklahoma 27, TCU 24
Quick Hitters
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at No. 1 Florida State Seminoles (-39)
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Shockingly, these two have split their past eight meetings; of course, Florida State has won the most recent two by a combined score of 111-3. While the defending champs are 4-0 this year, the Seminoles have failed to cover the spread in each of their games; last week, in a 56-41 road win over N.C. State, they allowed a school-record 24 first-quarter points. On the other side, the Demon Deacons are coming off a misleading 20-10 loss at Louisville, as they were outgained 421-100 and their only touchdown came via a recovered fumble in the end zone. They are actually averaging minus-17 rush yards per game away from home, and have given up 21 sacks in those three games. That's not good news against a team needing a statement win. FSU gets its first cover of 2014.
Pick: Florida State 52, Wake Forest 3
Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 13 Georgia Bulldogs (-32)
Saturday at 4 p.m. ET, SEC Network
Georgia is clearly playing for legitimate revenge this year, as the Bulldogs blew a 10-point halftime lead in this matchup in 2013. The key play of that game happened when Vanderbilt was stopped on fourth down in the second half, but Georgia was flagged for targeting and that fueled the Vandy comeback. The Bulldogs are playing their third straight home game, while the Commodores are on the road for a second straight week. I am expecting Georgia defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt to have his troops playing angry. Following the poor defensive performance against South Carolina, the Bulldogs shut out Troy. Vanderbilt gained only 139 yards last week, which were the fewest allowed by Kentucky in an SEC game since 1996. Despite having a big game against Missouri on deck, I look for the Bulldogs to take care of business.
Pick: Georgia 44, Vanderbilt 6
No. 7 Baylor Bears (-16.5) at Texas Longhorns
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Texas had beaten Baylor 12 straight years -- from 1998 to 2009 -- before Baylor won three of the past four. This was basically the de facto Big 12 title game last season, and it was tied 3-3 at halftime. Baylor pulled away in the end, securing its first conference title since 1980. The Longhorns are coming off a 23-0 shutout of Kansas last week, and I expect them to continue to show improvement after the wheels fell off against BYU. On the other side, the Bears come in 4-0 and are outscoring their foes by 43 points per game, while outgaining them by 416 yards per game. On paper, this looks like a significant mismatch; however, while going through my records that date back to 1976, this will be the largest underdog role Texas has faced at home during that time, and I will call for them to keep it closer than the Vegas experts think.
Pick: Baylor 34, Texas 23
Arizona State Sun Devils at USC Trojans (-12)
Saturday at 7:20 p.m. ET
USC is playing with legit revenge on its mind after a 62-41 trouncing on the road at Arizona State last year; then-head coach Lane Kiffin was fired when the team landed back home in Los Angeles. USC had been 12-1 in this series prior to that loss. These two teams come into this matchup from very different spots, as USC mauled Oregon State 35-10, including a 461-181 yardage edge, and the Beavers' only touchdown was a 97-yard kick return. The Sun Devils are coming off of a 62-27 loss at the hands of UCLA; they were outscored 42-3 in approximately 20 minutes of game time after racing out to a 17-6 second-quarter lead. This will be Sun Devils QB Mike Bercovici's first road start, and that does not bode well against a USC defense that is allowing just 156 pass yards per game and a 52 percent completion rate. I look for the Trojans to get their revenge in a big way.
Pick: USC 42, Arizona State 23
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
I can't pick my ### in a home pillow fight. ML Dallas, Atl/NYG over 50, OK -4 over TCU and Pit game 3.
