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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
comfortably numb
Footballguy
oh yeah.
well, Patriots crew is similar.
I have Jets ranked 3rd (1.33 tkls/opp) and Patriots 6th (1.21 tkls/opp).
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
terrible weather plays right into the NYJ hands - a wet ball - wind, no real downfield passing threats. NYJ are tougher to run on than to throw on. NE has been hot the last couple of weeks and i still think NE wins, but I do like the NYJ to cover. NYJ +10 to win a unit.
GLTA
AB
GLTA
AB
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
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Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Thanks for the headsup! Ill take the Jets anyway but I am probably wrong in my thinking here....
John Bender
Footballguy
MEAN JENE!!!!!!!!!!
John Bender
Footballguy
Can we get an Ask The Doctor segment going in here for the next hour Bramel?
I have a few acid reflux questions.
TIA
I have a few acid reflux questions.
TIA
John Bender
Footballguy
"Hey doc, I don't feel like my Omeprazole prescription is working and it's been over a month, also - how many tackles do you figure Hightower for tonight?"
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comfortably numb
Footballguy
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Gents, Halloween 2015 is just around the corner. With a confirmed Halloween party and a pending one to go to, finally getting around to costume selection. Usually go all out for this, but thinking simple, yet effective this year.
The head, and need to land a teal sweater and white pants for the full ensemble in the next two weeks: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00GLZ6LVU/ref=ox_ya_os_product_refresh_T1
Will probably need a straw and have to cut out a small part of the mouth for the straw while
, and will force me to drink mixed drinks, also not an issue.
What else we have on deck for Halloween 2015 costumes, whatcha got?
The head, and need to land a teal sweater and white pants for the full ensemble in the next two weeks: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00GLZ6LVU/ref=ox_ya_os_product_refresh_T1
Will probably need a straw and have to cut out a small part of the mouth for the straw while
, and will force me to drink mixed drinks, also not an issue.What else we have on deck for Halloween 2015 costumes, whatcha got?
modogg
Footballguy
First thing i thought of with the weather is that if the Pats start out with a big lead, it just means Geno's passes will be a little tougher to complete. but that is what live betting is for if you need it
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
Make this line:
NE v. DEN, neutral site.
NE v. DEN, neutral site.
The Ref
Footballguy
I know it's a Thursday night football so it's hard to focus on other sports..... but I think there may be some real value in these bets....
The Ref
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
good start 
Annual guys gambling tripWhat's the occasion?packing for vegas
It was threatened to be canceled b/c of my ####ty work schedule, but we pulled through over the last month or so. A little smaller group than normal, but should still be a blast.
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swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Ivory ivory ivory!
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Love it.. Johnsons carries coming into this week 13, 12, 10, 6, 7 , 3... 8 in the first half
The Ref
Footballguy
comfortably numb
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
rest of steele. Like bama
No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5) vs. No. 21 Texas A&M AggiesSaturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
These two teams have had classic confrontations in their past two meetings. Two years ago in Alabama, Johnny Manziel & Co. pulled the shocker over No. 1 Alabama 29-24. Playing with revenge on their mind last season, the Crimson Tide won 49-42 on the road, but the Aggies did have an incredible 628 yards on offense.
[+] Enlarge
Joe Murphy/Getty ImagesAfter wild early success, Blake Sims has come under fire for recent struggles.
Just three weeks ago, everyone was raving about the Crimson Tide offense after it piled up 672 yards against Florida. But now, after managing just 227 yards and 14 points last week, offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin and quarterback Blake Sims have come under fire. What has remained the same is a defense that ranks No. 3 in the country in allowing just 69 rushing YPG and 277 total YPG.
On the flip side, after a 5-0 start, Texas A&M has been blown out in each of the past two weeks by the schools from the Magnolia state, and each of those were even a bit misleading, as the Aggies scored two late fourth quarter touchdowns in each game to avoid further embarrassment.
After being embarrassed in each of the last two meetings defensively, I cannot imagine Nick Saban or defensive coordinator Kirby Smart letting up in this one, and remember: The Crimson Tide offense is averaging 594 YPG at home this year. Despite what most are saying, I still consider the Tide a legitimate playoff contender and they will prove that on Saturday afternoon.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 37, Texas A&M 17
No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners (-7.5) vs. No. 14 Kansas State WildcatsSaturday, Noon ET, ESPN
Oklahoma is on a 9-2 run in this series, and is up 63-9-1 all time. However, one of those losses came here two years ago when Kansas State pulled off the upset 24-19. Last year the Sooners were playing with revenge and got a 74-yard interception return touchdown with 11:47 left to key a 41-31 win despite Kansas State WR Tyler Lockett setting a school record with 440 all-purpose yards.
Last week, the Sooners were fortunate to not let an 18-point second half lead completely disappear in their 31-26 win over rival Texas. They were outgained 482-232, and had just 29 total yards at halftime. They did however, benefit from two non-offensive touchdowns.
On the other side, Kansas State comes in off a bye after destroying each of its previous two opponents after the near upset of Auburn. Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder owns a 12-1 ATS mark as road underdog, but equally impressive is Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops' 89-5 record in Norman, and I have to think he will point towards the game here two years ago to motivate his troops.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 37, Kansas State 24
No. 12 TCU Horned Frogs (-8.5) vs. No. 15 Oklahoma State CowboysSaturday, 4:00 p.m. ET
Oklahoma State is 9-1 in this series, and has easily won each of its two Big 12 meetings (both have come at home). However, the last time it won in Fort Worth came all the way back in 1947.
It was heartbreak hotel for the Horned Frogs last week, as they blew a 21-point lead at Baylor. Had they escaped with a win, they would have been most likely favored by at least a touchdown in all of their remaining games. Contrary to some earlier reports, it does look like QB Trevone Boykin will play in this game, and that's good news for Horned Frog fans considering he is one of the most improved QBs in the country.
On the other side, Oklahoma State survived a scare from Kansas last week despite being outgained 379-275. A 99-yard kickoff return touchdown by Tyreek Hill proved to be the difference. While I commend the job head coach Mike Gundy has done this year with arguably the nation's most inexperienced team coming into the season, the Cowboys' three Big 12 wins to date have come over the likes of Texas Tech, Iowa State and Kansas, and they have struggled in each of those games.
Despite coming off two draining performances, I think TCU will have enough left in the tank here to easily dispatch an Oklahoma State team that could find itself an underdog in at least four or five games down the stretch.
ATS pick: TCU
Score: TCU 43, Oklahoma State 26
No. 23 Stanford Cardinal (-3) at No. 17 Arizona State Sun DevilsSaturday, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Last year's regular season matchup produced a misleading final score, as Stanford led 39-7 after three quarters and would "only" win by 14. In the Pac-12 title game -- where they were shockingly an underdog -- the Cardinal would keep their foot on the gas the entire game, winning 38-14 on the road.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Gus RuelasBackup QB Mike Bercovici threw for 510 yards and five touchdowns in Arizona State's win over USC.
This year, the situation favors Arizona State as Stanford is on its third road game in four weeks, while the Sun Devils come in off a bye. Last week, the Cardinal held the high-powered Washington State offense to 266 yards on 80 plays (3.3 yards per play). They are allowing just 10 PPG and 238 YPG, and will give Arizona State its toughest test of the season.
In their most recent game, the Sun Devils got a miracle win over USC, scoring three touchdowns in the final half of the fourth quarter including a 46-yard Hail Mary pass on the final play. Backup QB Mike Bercovici threw for 510 yards and five touchdowns, but returning starter Taylor Kelly should be back for this one.
In these types of matchups -- involving a physical style of play against more of a finesse style -- I will typically go with the power team. Considering Stanford's dominance over Arizona State last year (it never trailed in either game), I will back the Cardinal yet again.
ATS pick: Stanford
Score: Stanford 30, Arizona State 23
Quick hitters
No. 13 Ohio State Buckeyes (-19.5) vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
This will be the first ever meeting between these new conference foes. Since its loss to Virginia Tech in Week 2, the young Ohio State offense has improved dramatically, averaging 56 PPG and 624 YPG. QB J.T. Barrett has become the first Buckeye ever to have four touchdown passes in three straight games. The Buckeyes have won their past seven times coming off a bye in the regular season by an average of 18 PPG. Rutgers is also off a bye, and could be the biggest surprise of the Big Ten to date at 5-1. However, it has failed to beat a team with a current winning record and is only outgaining its opponents by 28 YPG against my No. 92 toughest schedule; meanwhile, the Buckeyes are plus-210 YPG against my No. 23 schedule. Look for the Buckeyes to give the Scarlet Knights a rude welcome to life on the road in the Big Ten.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 45, Rutgers 17
Northwestern Wildcats (+6.5) vs. No. 19 Nebraska Cornhuskers
Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET
The Cornhuskers have barely beaten the Wildcats each of the past two years, winning the two contests by four points combined. After pulling back-to-back upsets this year, Northwestern lost at Minnesota last week 24-17, despite having a 28-14 first down and 393-274 yardage edge. Nebraska is fresh off a bye after nearly pulling a dramatic comeback at Michigan State. RB Ameer Abdullah was held to just 47 yards rushing in that one, and now will be taking on a Northwestern defense that is holding opponents to 90 yards per game fewer than their season averages. Two weeks ago, the Wildcats upset a similar Wisconsin team at home, and I will give them a solid shot at pulling another upset here, especially considering the recent close games in this series.
ATS pick: Northwestern
Score: Nebraska 27, Northwestern 24
No. 24 Clemson Tigers (-5) at Boston College Eagles
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU
Clemson has won three in a row in this series by an average of 15 PPG. The Eagles are coming off an impressive 30-14 win at NC State last week that included a dominating 310-43 rushing yardage edge. The Tigers are coming off a hard-fought 23-17 win over Louisville, but they did lose QB Deshaun Watson for a month with a broken finger. However, they do have an experienced backup in Cole Stoudt, who won't be fazed playing on the road after starting at Georgia and Florida State earlier this year. Look for the Clemson defense, which is allowing just 55 rushing YPG in its past five games, to slow down the Boston College ground attack. That will force BC QB Tyler Murphy -- who has a 3-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio this year -- to have to beat them through the air.
ATS pick: Clemson
Score: Clemson 31, Boston College 17
No. 25 Marshall Thundering Herd (-21.5) at FIU Golden Panthers
Saturday, 6:00 p.m. ET
Marshall has a lot of players on the roster from the Miami-Dade area, including QB Rakeem Cato. Last week, Cato tied the NCAA record for consecutive games with a TD pass (38), previously held by Russell Wilson. The undefeated Herd were my pick to represent the non-Power 5 conferences in a major bowl in the preseason, and they have not let me down: They are outscoring their opponents by 31 PPG, and their plus-266 yards per game average margin is behind only Baylor's. While FIU is much improved this year, its record is a bit misleading, as it has benefited greatly from turnovers in its wins over UAB and Florida Atlantic. The Herd have covered four straight games by an average of 14 PPG -- all as a double-digit favorite -- and I will call for them to get another cover and another easy win here.
ATS pick: Marshall
Score: Marshall 41, FIU 16
LSU Tigers (-9.5) vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Saturday. 7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network
In its past three trips to Death Valley, Kentucky has been outscored 118-7. The Wildcats enter this week having lost 17 straight SEC away games; but, after going just 4-20 overall in 2012-13, they are now just one win away from bowl eligibility. The Tigers are coming off a come-from-behind 30-27 win at Florida, which marked the 23rd fourth quarter comeback under Les Miles, the most in the FBS since he was hired in 2005. Freshman RB Leonard Fournette is coming off of a career-high 140 rushing yards, and LSU's young skill position players will only get better down the stretch. While the Wildcats are just a play away from being undefeated (they lost to Florida in three overtimes), winning in Death Valley is too tall of a task at this point for this rising program.
ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 34, Kentucky 20
No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5) vs. No. 21 Texas A&M AggiesSaturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
These two teams have had classic confrontations in their past two meetings. Two years ago in Alabama, Johnny Manziel & Co. pulled the shocker over No. 1 Alabama 29-24. Playing with revenge on their mind last season, the Crimson Tide won 49-42 on the road, but the Aggies did have an incredible 628 yards on offense.
[+] Enlarge
Joe Murphy/Getty ImagesAfter wild early success, Blake Sims has come under fire for recent struggles.Just three weeks ago, everyone was raving about the Crimson Tide offense after it piled up 672 yards against Florida. But now, after managing just 227 yards and 14 points last week, offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin and quarterback Blake Sims have come under fire. What has remained the same is a defense that ranks No. 3 in the country in allowing just 69 rushing YPG and 277 total YPG.
On the flip side, after a 5-0 start, Texas A&M has been blown out in each of the past two weeks by the schools from the Magnolia state, and each of those were even a bit misleading, as the Aggies scored two late fourth quarter touchdowns in each game to avoid further embarrassment.
After being embarrassed in each of the last two meetings defensively, I cannot imagine Nick Saban or defensive coordinator Kirby Smart letting up in this one, and remember: The Crimson Tide offense is averaging 594 YPG at home this year. Despite what most are saying, I still consider the Tide a legitimate playoff contender and they will prove that on Saturday afternoon.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 37, Texas A&M 17
No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners (-7.5) vs. No. 14 Kansas State WildcatsSaturday, Noon ET, ESPN
Oklahoma is on a 9-2 run in this series, and is up 63-9-1 all time. However, one of those losses came here two years ago when Kansas State pulled off the upset 24-19. Last year the Sooners were playing with revenge and got a 74-yard interception return touchdown with 11:47 left to key a 41-31 win despite Kansas State WR Tyler Lockett setting a school record with 440 all-purpose yards.
Last week, the Sooners were fortunate to not let an 18-point second half lead completely disappear in their 31-26 win over rival Texas. They were outgained 482-232, and had just 29 total yards at halftime. They did however, benefit from two non-offensive touchdowns.
On the other side, Kansas State comes in off a bye after destroying each of its previous two opponents after the near upset of Auburn. Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder owns a 12-1 ATS mark as road underdog, but equally impressive is Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops' 89-5 record in Norman, and I have to think he will point towards the game here two years ago to motivate his troops.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 37, Kansas State 24
No. 12 TCU Horned Frogs (-8.5) vs. No. 15 Oklahoma State CowboysSaturday, 4:00 p.m. ET
Oklahoma State is 9-1 in this series, and has easily won each of its two Big 12 meetings (both have come at home). However, the last time it won in Fort Worth came all the way back in 1947.
It was heartbreak hotel for the Horned Frogs last week, as they blew a 21-point lead at Baylor. Had they escaped with a win, they would have been most likely favored by at least a touchdown in all of their remaining games. Contrary to some earlier reports, it does look like QB Trevone Boykin will play in this game, and that's good news for Horned Frog fans considering he is one of the most improved QBs in the country.
On the other side, Oklahoma State survived a scare from Kansas last week despite being outgained 379-275. A 99-yard kickoff return touchdown by Tyreek Hill proved to be the difference. While I commend the job head coach Mike Gundy has done this year with arguably the nation's most inexperienced team coming into the season, the Cowboys' three Big 12 wins to date have come over the likes of Texas Tech, Iowa State and Kansas, and they have struggled in each of those games.
Despite coming off two draining performances, I think TCU will have enough left in the tank here to easily dispatch an Oklahoma State team that could find itself an underdog in at least four or five games down the stretch.
ATS pick: TCU
Score: TCU 43, Oklahoma State 26
No. 23 Stanford Cardinal (-3) at No. 17 Arizona State Sun DevilsSaturday, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Last year's regular season matchup produced a misleading final score, as Stanford led 39-7 after three quarters and would "only" win by 14. In the Pac-12 title game -- where they were shockingly an underdog -- the Cardinal would keep their foot on the gas the entire game, winning 38-14 on the road.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Gus RuelasBackup QB Mike Bercovici threw for 510 yards and five touchdowns in Arizona State's win over USC.This year, the situation favors Arizona State as Stanford is on its third road game in four weeks, while the Sun Devils come in off a bye. Last week, the Cardinal held the high-powered Washington State offense to 266 yards on 80 plays (3.3 yards per play). They are allowing just 10 PPG and 238 YPG, and will give Arizona State its toughest test of the season.
In their most recent game, the Sun Devils got a miracle win over USC, scoring three touchdowns in the final half of the fourth quarter including a 46-yard Hail Mary pass on the final play. Backup QB Mike Bercovici threw for 510 yards and five touchdowns, but returning starter Taylor Kelly should be back for this one.
In these types of matchups -- involving a physical style of play against more of a finesse style -- I will typically go with the power team. Considering Stanford's dominance over Arizona State last year (it never trailed in either game), I will back the Cardinal yet again.
ATS pick: Stanford
Score: Stanford 30, Arizona State 23
Quick hitters
No. 13 Ohio State Buckeyes (-19.5) vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
This will be the first ever meeting between these new conference foes. Since its loss to Virginia Tech in Week 2, the young Ohio State offense has improved dramatically, averaging 56 PPG and 624 YPG. QB J.T. Barrett has become the first Buckeye ever to have four touchdown passes in three straight games. The Buckeyes have won their past seven times coming off a bye in the regular season by an average of 18 PPG. Rutgers is also off a bye, and could be the biggest surprise of the Big Ten to date at 5-1. However, it has failed to beat a team with a current winning record and is only outgaining its opponents by 28 YPG against my No. 92 toughest schedule; meanwhile, the Buckeyes are plus-210 YPG against my No. 23 schedule. Look for the Buckeyes to give the Scarlet Knights a rude welcome to life on the road in the Big Ten.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 45, Rutgers 17
Northwestern Wildcats (+6.5) vs. No. 19 Nebraska Cornhuskers
Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET
The Cornhuskers have barely beaten the Wildcats each of the past two years, winning the two contests by four points combined. After pulling back-to-back upsets this year, Northwestern lost at Minnesota last week 24-17, despite having a 28-14 first down and 393-274 yardage edge. Nebraska is fresh off a bye after nearly pulling a dramatic comeback at Michigan State. RB Ameer Abdullah was held to just 47 yards rushing in that one, and now will be taking on a Northwestern defense that is holding opponents to 90 yards per game fewer than their season averages. Two weeks ago, the Wildcats upset a similar Wisconsin team at home, and I will give them a solid shot at pulling another upset here, especially considering the recent close games in this series.
ATS pick: Northwestern
Score: Nebraska 27, Northwestern 24
No. 24 Clemson Tigers (-5) at Boston College Eagles
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU
Clemson has won three in a row in this series by an average of 15 PPG. The Eagles are coming off an impressive 30-14 win at NC State last week that included a dominating 310-43 rushing yardage edge. The Tigers are coming off a hard-fought 23-17 win over Louisville, but they did lose QB Deshaun Watson for a month with a broken finger. However, they do have an experienced backup in Cole Stoudt, who won't be fazed playing on the road after starting at Georgia and Florida State earlier this year. Look for the Clemson defense, which is allowing just 55 rushing YPG in its past five games, to slow down the Boston College ground attack. That will force BC QB Tyler Murphy -- who has a 3-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio this year -- to have to beat them through the air.
ATS pick: Clemson
Score: Clemson 31, Boston College 17
No. 25 Marshall Thundering Herd (-21.5) at FIU Golden Panthers
Saturday, 6:00 p.m. ET
Marshall has a lot of players on the roster from the Miami-Dade area, including QB Rakeem Cato. Last week, Cato tied the NCAA record for consecutive games with a TD pass (38), previously held by Russell Wilson. The undefeated Herd were my pick to represent the non-Power 5 conferences in a major bowl in the preseason, and they have not let me down: They are outscoring their opponents by 31 PPG, and their plus-266 yards per game average margin is behind only Baylor's. While FIU is much improved this year, its record is a bit misleading, as it has benefited greatly from turnovers in its wins over UAB and Florida Atlantic. The Herd have covered four straight games by an average of 14 PPG -- all as a double-digit favorite -- and I will call for them to get another cover and another easy win here.
ATS pick: Marshall
Score: Marshall 41, FIU 16
LSU Tigers (-9.5) vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Saturday. 7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network
In its past three trips to Death Valley, Kentucky has been outscored 118-7. The Wildcats enter this week having lost 17 straight SEC away games; but, after going just 4-20 overall in 2012-13, they are now just one win away from bowl eligibility. The Tigers are coming off a come-from-behind 30-27 win at Florida, which marked the 23rd fourth quarter comeback under Les Miles, the most in the FBS since he was hired in 2005. Freshman RB Leonard Fournette is coming off of a career-high 140 rushing yards, and LSU's young skill position players will only get better down the stretch. While the Wildcats are just a play away from being undefeated (they lost to Florida in three overtimes), winning in Death Valley is too tall of a task at this point for this rising program.
ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 34, Kentucky 20
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
powell dead isnt good
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
thanks bilah
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
o good amaro isnt even playing in 2 minute offense.
another fail
another fail
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
te receiving under always
automatic
automatic
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
regularguy
Footballguy
ChainsawU said:
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
I'm beginning to think these Player X to score 1st TD bets are sucker bets
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Gruden comes out and says garcon needs more catches... Over
Hopefully similar to marshall. He has been around 4.5 listed and is going up vs PFF's 5th worst graded corner this week.
Hopefully similar to marshall. He has been around 4.5 listed and is going up vs PFF's 5th worst graded corner this week.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Well, the Jets rushing attack came to play, so well done oddsmakers. Here's my 1.1U.No problem with that whatsoever. My play was booked when i posted, so maybe it helps the folks waiting until game time.
In my case, hope for the best and expect the worst.
Hoping that Vick under comes through
And, for the record, Michael Vick did register 6 rushing yards.
ChainsawU
Footballguy
The Sabres haven't won a home game in October since Oct 27, 2011, and are 0-11 L11 at home in October against an average line of 114. They were 0-7-4 in the first period of those eleven games, and the opposing team averaged 1.1 goals per period in those eleven games. Since 2006, teams who lost their first three games of the season are 21-14 SU in the subsequent game against an average line of 106.
Panthers -115
Panthers o2½ -125
Panthers 1P -½ 190
Panthers -115
Panthers o2½ -125
Panthers 1P -½ 190
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
insider dood who has been pretty good in his early bovada props..
Overall record: 14-4-1 (73.7 percent)
Outstanding bets: Any team to score more than 56 points in a game (plus-600)
Johnny Manziel will NOT start a game this season (Hoyer injury nullifies bet) (minus-110)
Note: All prop bets taken from Bovada's website.
Will Peyton Manning break Brett Favre's TD record Sunday?(Yes, minus-180; No, plus-150)
With 506 career touchdown passes, Manning needs just three more to break Favre's all-time mark. Manning has thrown at least three touchdowns in 24 of his 37 games (65 percent) since joining the Broncos at the start of 2012, which is fairly consistent with the minus-180 line for yes.
However, simply looking at Manning's percentage of three-TD games undersells Manning's opponent. The 49ers' defense has allowed at least three passing touchdowns in just four of 38 games in that same span, including only once in six games this season. The 49ers held Dallas' Tony Romo and Philadelphia's Nick Foles to a combined one touchdown in two games, and if you remove a Week 2 second-half meltdown, they've given up only six passing touchdowns in 22 quarters (an average of just over one per game). If it were a pick 'em, Manning still might be the play here. But with the above odds? Wear your Jim Harbaugh khakis Sunday and take the chance.
The play: No
Why is the 12.5-yard over/under a pick 'em? In Manning's career, he has thrown 255 touchdowns of 12 yards or less, and 251 were for 13 yards or more. It doesn't get much closer than that -- until you look at a more relevant sample size. Manning has thrown 107 touchdowns with the Broncos, 61 of which were 12 yards or less. This season, the split is 10-5 in favor of the shorter gain.
It's not just Manning. This season there have been 303 touchdown passes, 176 of which were for 12 yards or less. But if the Manning numbers aren't enough, consider his opponents. Denver's next two games are against the 49ers and Chargers, two teams that both rank in the top-seven in 13-yard completions allowed this season. No team has given up fewer 13-plus yard touchdowns in the past three seasons than the 49ers (15). If the record makes it to the Chargers, they have an 18-15 split in favor of shorter touchdowns allowed since the start of last season.
The play: Under
At six 100-yard games through six games played, you probably don't need my help to know how many 100-yard games Murray is on pace for in a full season. Murray facts have taken on a Chuck Norris-like life of their own. Consider:
• Removing Dallas from the rankings, Murray's 23 rushes of at least 10 yards would tie for third among NFL teams. Murray has twice as many as all but four players.
• Four teams have rushed for fewer total yards this season than Murray's 474 before contact.
• Murray's 311 yards after contact would rank 16th as a stand-alone total among running backs.
The question is: Can Murray gain at least 100 rushing yards in six of his 10 remaining games? Injuries are a real concern, as Murray has never played 15 games in a season before. Can he survive averaging 26.5 rushes per game this season after never averaging 17 in a game in his career?
The answer is yes, because he already has been through something similar. Murray averaged 20.1 rushes per game in his senior season at Oklahoma after never averaging 15, and played in all 14 games in 2010. Bet on Murray behind that big offensive line, especially considering nine of Murray's 10 remaining opponents are allowing more than 100 rushing yards per game, and none has played the Cowboys yet.
The play: Over
The 3-2 Browns are one of the better stories in the league so far. Take your pick of adjectives: scrappy, upstart, efficient, etc. -- they've all been used. The team is for real though, leading the league in offensive efficiency and fewest turnovers committed this season. Looking at the Browns' schedule, it's very tempting to assume they'll rattle off three straight wins in the next three games. They travel to the Jaguars before hosting the Raiders and Buccaneers, three teams with a combined record of 1-16.
They're bad NFL opponents for sure, but they're still NFL opponents. Winning three straight games is not a given, and our friends at numberFire.com tell us the Browns win all three in only 33 percent of simulations, not a huge difference between the results and the odds.
But look at these teams, with their 5.8 combined winning percentage. Their combined offensive and defensive expected points-added totals are three of the four lowest in the league. Whether or not you believe in Cleveland, it's very easy not to believe in Jacksonville, Oakland and Tampa.
The play: Yes
Here's where we find more of a difference between projections from numberFire and the Bovada odds. According to numberFire, the Seahawks have only a 14.8 percent chance of running the rest of the home slate (85.2 percent chance they lose another home game). That includes games against the Raiders, Giants and all three divisional opponents.
If the projections aren't enough, there's plenty to support the notion that the Seahawks are declining as a team this season. Consider that the pass rush, so unstoppable during its Super Bowl-winning season, has placed opposing quarterbacks under pressure on only 17.6 percent of dropbacks, last in the league. No question they've played some excellent quarterbacks this season, including Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers, but to go from first to worst after losing Chris Clemons and Red Bryant in the offseason is troubling. Seattle's QBR is down, its QBR allowed is up (by 41 points!) and the Giants plus three divisional games means betting "Yes" at minus-250 finds you some value.
The play: Yes
Overall record: 14-4-1 (73.7 percent)
Outstanding bets: Any team to score more than 56 points in a game (plus-600)
Johnny Manziel will NOT start a game this season (Hoyer injury nullifies bet) (minus-110)
Note: All prop bets taken from Bovada's website.
Will Peyton Manning break Brett Favre's TD record Sunday?(Yes, minus-180; No, plus-150)
With 506 career touchdown passes, Manning needs just three more to break Favre's all-time mark. Manning has thrown at least three touchdowns in 24 of his 37 games (65 percent) since joining the Broncos at the start of 2012, which is fairly consistent with the minus-180 line for yes.
However, simply looking at Manning's percentage of three-TD games undersells Manning's opponent. The 49ers' defense has allowed at least three passing touchdowns in just four of 38 games in that same span, including only once in six games this season. The 49ers held Dallas' Tony Romo and Philadelphia's Nick Foles to a combined one touchdown in two games, and if you remove a Week 2 second-half meltdown, they've given up only six passing touchdowns in 22 quarters (an average of just over one per game). If it were a pick 'em, Manning still might be the play here. But with the above odds? Wear your Jim Harbaugh khakis Sunday and take the chance.
The play: No
O/U: 12.5 yards for Manning's 509th TD pass(O/U minus-115)Why is the 12.5-yard over/under a pick 'em? In Manning's career, he has thrown 255 touchdowns of 12 yards or less, and 251 were for 13 yards or more. It doesn't get much closer than that -- until you look at a more relevant sample size. Manning has thrown 107 touchdowns with the Broncos, 61 of which were 12 yards or less. This season, the split is 10-5 in favor of the shorter gain.
It's not just Manning. This season there have been 303 touchdown passes, 176 of which were for 12 yards or less. But if the Manning numbers aren't enough, consider his opponents. Denver's next two games are against the 49ers and Chargers, two teams that both rank in the top-seven in 13-yard completions allowed this season. No team has given up fewer 13-plus yard touchdowns in the past three seasons than the 49ers (15). If the record makes it to the Chargers, they have an 18-15 split in favor of shorter touchdowns allowed since the start of last season.
The play: Under
DeMarco Murray will finish this season with O/U 11 100-yd rushing games?(O/U minus-115)At six 100-yard games through six games played, you probably don't need my help to know how many 100-yard games Murray is on pace for in a full season. Murray facts have taken on a Chuck Norris-like life of their own. Consider:
• Removing Dallas from the rankings, Murray's 23 rushes of at least 10 yards would tie for third among NFL teams. Murray has twice as many as all but four players.
• Four teams have rushed for fewer total yards this season than Murray's 474 before contact.
• Murray's 311 yards after contact would rank 16th as a stand-alone total among running backs.
The question is: Can Murray gain at least 100 rushing yards in six of his 10 remaining games? Injuries are a real concern, as Murray has never played 15 games in a season before. Can he survive averaging 26.5 rushes per game this season after never averaging 17 in a game in his career?
The answer is yes, because he already has been through something similar. Murray averaged 20.1 rushes per game in his senior season at Oklahoma after never averaging 15, and played in all 14 games in 2010. Bet on Murray behind that big offensive line, especially considering nine of Murray's 10 remaining opponents are allowing more than 100 rushing yards per game, and none has played the Cowboys yet.
The play: Over
Will the Cleveland Browns win their next three games?(Yes, plus-170; No, minus-250)The 3-2 Browns are one of the better stories in the league so far. Take your pick of adjectives: scrappy, upstart, efficient, etc. -- they've all been used. The team is for real though, leading the league in offensive efficiency and fewest turnovers committed this season. Looking at the Browns' schedule, it's very tempting to assume they'll rattle off three straight wins in the next three games. They travel to the Jaguars before hosting the Raiders and Buccaneers, three teams with a combined record of 1-16.
They're bad NFL opponents for sure, but they're still NFL opponents. Winning three straight games is not a given, and our friends at numberFire.com tell us the Browns win all three in only 33 percent of simulations, not a huge difference between the results and the odds.
But look at these teams, with their 5.8 combined winning percentage. Their combined offensive and defensive expected points-added totals are three of the four lowest in the league. Whether or not you believe in Cleveland, it's very easy not to believe in Jacksonville, Oakland and Tampa.
The play: Yes
Will the Seattle Seahawks lose another home game?(Yes, minus-250; No, plus-170)Here's where we find more of a difference between projections from numberFire and the Bovada odds. According to numberFire, the Seahawks have only a 14.8 percent chance of running the rest of the home slate (85.2 percent chance they lose another home game). That includes games against the Raiders, Giants and all three divisional opponents.
If the projections aren't enough, there's plenty to support the notion that the Seahawks are declining as a team this season. Consider that the pass rush, so unstoppable during its Super Bowl-winning season, has placed opposing quarterbacks under pressure on only 17.6 percent of dropbacks, last in the league. No question they've played some excellent quarterbacks this season, including Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers, but to go from first to worst after losing Chris Clemons and Red Bryant in the offseason is troubling. Seattle's QBR is down, its QBR allowed is up (by 41 points!) and the Giants plus three divisional games means betting "Yes" at minus-250 finds you some value.
The play: Yes
lumpy19
Footballguy
I know we have some challenge fans in here
http://grantland.com/hollywood-prospectus/grantland-reality-tv-fantasy-league-a-way-too-early-but-totally-necessary-the-challenge-preview/
http://grantland.com/hollywood-prospectus/grantland-reality-tv-fantasy-league-a-way-too-early-but-totally-necessary-the-challenge-preview/
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I didn't know this until I watched the replay of his show late last night, but Mike Francesa said yesterday that Belichick would take away the run and the Jets would have no chance on the ground. So naturally, they ran for 200+.Well, the Jets rushing attack came to play, so well done oddsmakers. Here's my 1.1U.No problem with that whatsoever. My play was booked when i posted, so maybe it helps the folks waiting until game time.
In my case, hope for the best and expect the worst.
Hoping that Vick under comes through
And, for the record, Michael Vick did register 6 rushing yards.
You were done before the game even started.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Bovada:
Ajayi (bsu) u 4.5 rec -120
Ajayi (bsu) u 4.5 rec -120
