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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (11 Viewers)

swirvenirvin said:
Tiger Fan said:
swirvenirvin said:
Prop bets

Eric Decker receiving yards: 59.5 versus Dolphins (O/U -110)

John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information says: Setting the prop at 59.5 for a team's top receiver in a Monday night game seems awfully low until the Jets' offense gets involved. Reports in a 12-hour span over Tuesday and Wednesday had Ryan starting both Vick and Smith at quarterback. We know it's Smith now. What does this mean for Decker, who hit at least 60 yards in five of his 10 games this year? Because of the turmoil at quarterback, per-game numbers have to start with a per-quarter approach. Decker averaged 11.9 yards per quarter with Smith at quarterback (47.6 yards per game).

Despite the stellar reputation of the Dolphins pass defense, the top receiver on each Dolphins opponent actually outgained his receiving yards average against all other opponents this year (114 percent of per-game average). Applying that 114 percent to Decker's 47.6 yards-per-game average with Smith under center still leaves Decker short (54.3 yards). That also doesn't factor in how Smith is trending as a passer -- the last we saw of Geno, he was a combined 12-of-20 for 94 yards and three interceptions across two games against the Bills, averaging 4.7 yards per attempt and recording a combined 0.4 Total QBR. This is not the stat line of a quarterback moving in the right direction, even if it was against the league-leading Bills defense (39.9 QBR allowed). As for Miami's defense? A 40.3 QBR allowed, second best in the league.

The play: Under

Ryan Tannehill passing yards: 240.5 at Jets (O/U -110)

Parolin says: Like most of these props, there's a pretty even split between how often Tannehill has gone over and under this year. Tannehill has reached 241 pass yards in five games this year and fallen short in six. But the opponents come into play here -- Tannehill has reached the over against the Bills, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers (in Miami), five teams with an average QBR rank of 14th and three that rank outside the top 10. The teams to hold Tannehill to an under were the Bills, Broncos, Detroit Lions, New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars, with an average rank of ninth and four of six in the top 10. All of the teams to hold Tannehill to 240 yards or fewer rank in the top 19 in QBR, while Tannehill has averaged 278 yards per game against his two opponents in the bottom 13 in QBR. So where do the Jets rank? Dead last. By a mile. Jets opponents this year have a 79.0 Total QBR, which would rank fourth best in the league as an individual player and just ahead of Tom Brady.

The play: Over
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You endorsing these Swirve, or just posting them?
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i have just been posting them, they seem to be doing ok on them. I threw a little on tannehill over's. Decker was never around 59.5 but agree with an under if you can get that number.. hes around 52.5 from what I saw.
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Gracias. Threw .5u on o242.5

 
lumpy19 said:
HRWager.ag is currently running a 200% freeplay bonus

Site has low limits($250) on pretty much everything, $100 on props($50 on MLB props)....but they offer CFB, NFL, MLB, basically the entire menu of props on all sports(haven't looked at hockey)

I have no idea what the rollover is but the site is decent and worth a deposit for the props menu alone. You can also use the freeplay on futures which is nice, doesn't tie up your actual cash on long term bets(like NBA win totals)

Not a shill for the site, just think its a good bonus.
Click to expand...
Not sure if anyone signed up here, but if so I would not recommend asking to get the $50 prop limit raised. I asked and he came back with I'm clearly not playing props for entertainment purposes and they are removing them completely from my account. I have bet 10 props in 2 weeks and gone 6-4, along with betting sides and am down there overall.
 
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gmbacm said:
lumpy19 said:
HRWager.ag is currently running a 200% freeplay bonus

Site has low limits($250) on pretty much everything, $100 on props($50 on MLB props)....but they offer CFB, NFL, MLB, basically the entire menu of props on all sports(haven't looked at hockey)

I have no idea what the rollover is but the site is decent and worth a deposit for the props menu alone. You can also use the freeplay on futures which is nice, doesn't tie up your actual cash on long term bets(like NBA win totals)

Not a shill for the site, just think its a good bonus.
Click to expand...
Not sure if anyone signed up here, but if so I would not recommend asking to get the $50 prop limit raised. I asked and he came back with I'm clearly not playing props for entertainment purposes and they are removing them completely from my account. I have bet 10 props in 2 weeks and gone 6-4, along with betting sides and am down there overall.
Click to expand...
Hmmm that's odd I have $100 limits and regularly bet 2-3k on props every weekend. I was disappointed to find out that they don't count towards rollover

 
FWIW, if this holds up, this is horrendous by the Jets crew.

1-10-NYJ 27(8:28) (Shotgun) C.Johnson right guard to MIA 20 for 53 yards.

They awarded no tackle on this play even though Vernon slowed him down and Jenkins finished him off while he was clearly inbounds.

EDIT: nevermind. they updated it to a solo for Jenkins.

at this point, Jenkins is at 4 tackles (1 solo, 3 assists) and Harris is at 4 tackles (0 solos, 4 assists). GB this crew.

 
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ugh, do not like the look of this game. Jets have a good gameplan, but it is literally "let's run as much of the clock off as we can to get out of here before we lose this game".

 
gmbacm said:
lumpy19 said:
HRWager.ag is currently running a 200% freeplay bonus

Site has low limits($250) on pretty much everything, $100 on props($50 on MLB props)....but they offer CFB, NFL, MLB, basically the entire menu of props on all sports(haven't looked at hockey)

I have no idea what the rollover is but the site is decent and worth a deposit for the props menu alone. You can also use the freeplay on futures which is nice, doesn't tie up your actual cash on long term bets(like NBA win totals)

Not a shill for the site, just think its a good bonus.
Click to expand...
Not sure if anyone signed up here, but if so I would not recommend asking to get the $50 prop limit raised. I asked and he came back with I'm clearly not playing props for entertainment purposes and they are removing them completely from my account. I have bet 10 props in 2 weeks and gone 6-4, along with betting sides and am down there overall.
Click to expand...
new book ive been crushing the props there, but have been playing them for tiny as add on my my other plays and to help with the rollover. Good to know tho thanks..

 
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my Rb account is so strange. it really seems to lose $10 or so radnomly from time to time. and it isn't juice or something cause i have no plays go through. really weird

 
modogg said:
my Rb account is so strange. it really seems to lose $10 or so radnomly from time to time. and it isn't juice or something cause i have no plays go through. really weird
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what kind of record keeping do you do? rb rounds to the $1 so maybe thats it if you dont reflect that in your numbers?

 
lumpy19 said:
gmbacm said:
lumpy19 said:
HRWager.ag is currently running a 200% freeplay bonus

Site has low limits($250) on pretty much everything, $100 on props($50 on MLB props)....but they offer CFB, NFL, MLB, basically the entire menu of props on all sports(haven't looked at hockey)

I have no idea what the rollover is but the site is decent and worth a deposit for the props menu alone. You can also use the freeplay on futures which is nice, doesn't tie up your actual cash on long term bets(like NBA win totals)

Not a shill for the site, just think its a good bonus.
Click to expand...
Not sure if anyone signed up here, but if so I would not recommend asking to get the $50 prop limit raised. I asked and he came back with I'm clearly not playing props for entertainment purposes and they are removing them completely from my account. I have bet 10 props in 2 weeks and gone 6-4, along with betting sides and am down there overall.
Click to expand...
Hmmm that's odd I have $100 limits and regularly bet 2-3k on props every weekend. I was disappointed to find out that they don't count towards rollover
Click to expand...
oh #### really.. do they track the rollover themselves. I cant seem to find out how they do it. Ugh ive been counting on that as my rollover had at least 4-5k from that.

 
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gmbacm said:
modogg said:
my Rb account is so strange. it really seems to lose $10 or so radnomly from time to time. and it isn't juice or something cause i have no plays go through. really weird
Click to expand...
what kind of record keeping do you do? rb rounds to the $1 so maybe thats it if you dont reflect that in your numbers?
Click to expand...
yeah, that might be it. I haven't been keeping the best records so it doesn't help.

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
2u Jenkins O7.5 - WIN (16 tackles!)

1.5u D.Harris O6.5 - WIN (11 tackles)

1u D.Landry U6.5 - WIN (6 tackles)

also played .5u on Wake U4 (-135) - WIN (3 tackles)

also played these on offense for .5u each:

Tannehill -40.5 pass yds vs Geno (-130) - WIN

L.Miller O57.5 rush yds (-110) - LOST on last carry for -2 yards

J.Landry O4.5 rec (-150) - WIN

Sims O24.5 rec yds (-105) - WIN
Click to expand...
what a phenomenal night. had to sweat that Landry line really hard. he could have been given an assist on one play late but they just gave a solo to Harris on it.

hope some guys tailed on Jenkins/Harris at least. those were easy winners.

 
lumpy19 said:
gmbacm said:
lumpy19 said:
HRWager.ag is currently running a 200% freeplay bonus

Site has low limits($250) on pretty much everything, $100 on props($50 on MLB props)....but they offer CFB, NFL, MLB, basically the entire menu of props on all sports(haven't looked at hockey)

I have no idea what the rollover is but the site is decent and worth a deposit for the props menu alone. You can also use the freeplay on futures which is nice, doesn't tie up your actual cash on long term bets(like NBA win totals)

Not a shill for the site, just think its a good bonus.
Click to expand...
Not sure if anyone signed up here, but if so I would not recommend asking to get the $50 prop limit raised. I asked and he came back with I'm clearly not playing props for entertainment purposes and they are removing them completely from my account. I have bet 10 props in 2 weeks and gone 6-4, along with betting sides and am down there overall.
Click to expand...
Hmmm that's odd I have $100 limits and regularly bet 2-3k on props every weekend. I was disappointed to find out that they don't count towards rollover
Click to expand...
I got limited there on props after about a month of NFL props last year. I think they took my limits down to 10 bucks. Funny thing is I referred a friend to this book this year and he rarely plays props. But when he did try to place them they started him off on $10 limits because they knew I was the one that referred him. Seems like they're very aware of props being risky for them.

 
5d graded Dawan Landry Under 6.5 tackles as a loss.

Sent them an email about it. I don't understand why this is so difficult. He's clearly listed with 6 tackles at NFL.com. Was he listed with more somewhere else?

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
2u Jenkins O7.5 - WIN (16 tackles!)

1.5u D.Harris O6.5 - WIN (11 tackles)

1u D.Landry U6.5 - WIN (6 tackles)

also played .5u on Wake U4 (-135) - WIN (3 tackles)

also played these on offense for .5u each:

Tannehill -40.5 pass yds vs Geno (-130) - WIN

L.Miller O57.5 rush yds (-110) - LOST on last carry for -2 yards

J.Landry O4.5 rec (-150) - WIN

Sims O24.5 rec yds (-105) - WIN
Click to expand...
what a phenomenal night. had to sweat that Landry line really hard. he could have been given an assist on one play late but they just gave a solo to Harris on it.

hope some guys tailed on Jenkins/Harris at least. those were easy winners.
Click to expand...
Awesome job...I was able to find miller at 52.5 so it was a sweep for me. Thanks for making it rain.

 
so i lost a playoff spot by 2.22 points

1 - 8-5 team

5 - 7-6 teams - had more points than some but all the tiebreakers went their way first.

6th place spot goes to team with most points not already in

dumb

 
Staying on topic, 2nd in points with a large gap to 3rd and missed the playoffs. :sadbanana: Pretty big pot, too.

H2H and its family are a d ick.

 
lumpy19 said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
2u Jenkins O7.5 - WIN (16 tackles!)

1.5u D.Harris O6.5 - WIN (11 tackles)

1u D.Landry U6.5 - WIN (6 tackles)

also played .5u on Wake U4 (-135) - WIN (3 tackles)

also played these on offense for .5u each:

Tannehill -40.5 pass yds vs Geno (-130) - WIN

L.Miller O57.5 rush yds (-110) - LOST on last carry for -2 yards

J.Landry O4.5 rec (-150) - WIN

Sims O24.5 rec yds (-105) - WIN
Click to expand...
what a phenomenal night. had to sweat that Landry line really hard. he could have been given an assist on one play late but they just gave a solo to Harris on it.

hope some guys tailed on Jenkins/Harris at least. those were easy winners.
Click to expand...
Awesome job...I was able to find miller at 52.5 so it was a sweep for me. Thanks for making it rain.
Click to expand...
I was already on Miller u62.5..could have been a nice middle. Great job, Rude & swirve. The juice kept me from flipping sides on Landry, and the Tannehill yards over just missed. Otherwise, a clean sweep for me.

 
regularguy said:
lumpy19 said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
2u Jenkins O7.5 - WIN (16 tackles!)

1.5u D.Harris O6.5 - WIN (11 tackles)

1u D.Landry U6.5 - WIN (6 tackles)

also played .5u on Wake U4 (-135) - WIN (3 tackles)

also played these on offense for .5u each:

Tannehill -40.5 pass yds vs Geno (-130) - WIN

L.Miller O57.5 rush yds (-110) - LOST on last carry for -2 yards

J.Landry O4.5 rec (-150) - WIN

Sims O24.5 rec yds (-105) - WIN
Click to expand...
what a phenomenal night. had to sweat that Landry line really hard. he could have been given an assist on one play late but they just gave a solo to Harris on it.

hope some guys tailed on Jenkins/Harris at least. those were easy winners.
Click to expand...
Awesome job...I was able to find miller at 52.5 so it was a sweep for me. Thanks for making it rain.
Click to expand...
I was already on Miller u62.5..could have been a nice middle. Great job, Rude & swirve. The juice kept me from flipping sides on Landry, and the Tannehill yards over just missed. Otherwise, a clean sweep for me.
Click to expand...
Tanny could have had that too by .5 yards if he threw a TD instead of the 3 yard pass on 3rd and goal or whatever it was

 
PFF graded Landry with 6 solos and 2 assists last night. He wound up playing 55 snaps to just 22 for Pryor.
Dodged a bullet there that the Jets crew only gave him 6 solos with no assists.

 
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Aaron, do you have any desire to start posting saves stuff again at Bovada? If so, I'll post up. Most of us have a $25 limit there, but that will add up over the course of the month. At SB, I won't even bother with the SOG props. I think I have a $10 max there. Not a big deal either way if you don't feel like doing it.

 
Raider Nation said:
Aaron, do you have any desire to start posting saves stuff again at Bovada? If so, I'll post up. Most of us have a $25 limit there, but that will add up over the course of the month. At SB, I won't even bother with the SOG props. I think I have a $10 max there. Not a big deal either way if you don't feel like doing it.
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I haven't even been capping the games this year for save props. I might pick things up once football is over, but haven't had the time.

last I checked, SB wasn't posting any SOG props yet this year.

 
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Aaron Rudnicki said:
Raider Nation said:
Aaron, do you have any desire to start posting saves stuff again at Bovada? If so, I'll post up. Most of us have a $25 limit there, but that will add up over the course of the month. At SB, I won't even bother with the SOG props. I think I have a $10 max there. Not a big deal either way if you don't feel like doing it.
Click to expand...
I haven't even been capping the games this year for save props. I might pick things up once football is over, but haven't had the time.last I checked, SB wasn't posting any SOG props yet this year.
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Thanks. No hurry, if you even end up doing it at all.

 
Talk me out (or further into) betting my 1st born on SEA @ PHI along with all the props against Sanchez.

-Sea is coming on and has the division within their sights.

-Phi looks like the darlings of Nov with the resurrection of Sanchez

-Phi is 6-0 at home/Sea is 3-3 on the road would think public is on PHI

I am just not buying into Sanchez surge.

@HOU

CAR

@GB

TEN

@DAL

1400yds in these games is great and so are 8 TD's but I am concerned about the 6 INTs

He will be facing a D unlike anything he has seen in quite some time, I think he buckles.

Maybe I am just a bitter Jets fan but I think Sea pulls this one out and turns him over 2+ times

 
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