FINAL DRAFT ADVICE (1 Viewer)

[Eminence]

The NFL season is about a month away so there's not much more time to develop your Fantasy Football strategy. Let's share a bit of "pre-draft" advice.

1.) In redraft, QBs are plentiful. You can definitely wait until at least Round 4.

2.) Arian Foster is 26, younger than Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, and Marshawn Lynch. If anything he's in his prime, draft him.

3.) Your opinion of David Wilson is irrelevant, Andre Brown is going to be a monster Touchdown vulture.

4.) CJ Spiller, Doug Martin, and Trent Richardson have the talent to be Top FF Scoring RBs. Getting any of the three in the 1st Round of a redraft would be a win.

5.) Sprinkle in your Justin Blackmon's, Greg Jennings, and Torrey Smith's. Both should be given plenty of targets and can be had late. Draft a few stud receivers and get these guys as WR4/5.

6.) Make sure to nab a Rookie, they usually WAY outperform their ADP. LeVeon Bell, Eddie Lacy, and Giovanni Bernard have a chance to outproduce where they were drafted. Similar thinking of Trent Richardson and Doug Martin last year, grabbing Rookies are a great way to build a decent team.

7.) Don't be afraid to double-dip at Quarterback. Make someone elses season a LIVING HELL by taking the last decent Quarterback off the board before they've drafted their first.

8.) Keep an eye on the RB Situation in Arizona and Indianapolis. There's definitely some potential there. Having the right guy from the team is the question.

9.) Rob Housler, Jared Cook, Kyle Rudolph, Tyler Eifert, and Martellus Bennett make for nice value Tight End plays if you load up on WR and RB early in the draft.

10.) Seattle and San Francisco seem like a lock for decent Defensive Fantasy Squads. Go ahead and grab Matt Bryant from Atlanta for your kicker.

 

[Tanner9919]

Foster is now sitting out with a bad back, to be paired with his other injuries.he won't make the trip this weekend for their first preseason game. Maybe you should change that to read - 'Draft Ben Tate in the first round, he'll be one of the top 5 RBs in the NFL this season". you and the other Foster backers need to finally take off the blinders, and have a look around..he's not going to be a top 5 RB this season - in fact, he might not be in the top 20..admit it, you're in denial that Foster's workload in 2012 took its toll..its not too late to jump on the Ben Tate Bandwagon!!! climb aboard, there's plenty of room, but it's filling up quickly..

Martellus Bennett couldn't catch a cold, let alone a football..steer clear of him.

Agree with Andre Brown - if he stays healthy.otherwise, Wilson is the guy to own.

Don't draft any Chiefs other than J. Charles..

Hakeem Nicks is fool's gold.take Randle instead.

 

[steveski]

I thought this was going go be some general advice and guidelines when you first began your post. Then it just turned into your own opinion about certain players. I disagree with a lot of what you posted, so I'd recommend people not following this "draft advice" and form your own opinions about players to rank them yourself.

I'll touch on one. Andre Brown being a "huge TD vulture". What evidence do you have for this? I have the same amount of evidence to prove otherwise: none.

 

[pantherclub]

I love Andre Brown. Watched every college game and most of his NFL games last year. He is a beast. Big, fast and loves contact.

That said, the dude has never been able to stay healthy, not in college and certainly not in the pros. A lot of his injuries are freak but that really doesnt matter in fantasy now does it.

I can see the Giants potentially using him as a goal line back as he has a nose for the endzone but I certainly wouldnt draft him with any illusions that he is going to get 150+ carries in the season. If I am proven wrong then I would be ecstatic, he is a good kid and a hard worker .

 

[pantherclub]

I thought this was going go be some general advice and guidelines when you first began your post. Then it just turned into your own opinion about certain players. I disagree with a lot of what you posted, so I'd recommend people not following this "draft advice" and form your own opinions about players to rank them yourself.

I'll touch on one. Andre Brown being a "huge TD vulture". What evidence do you have for this? I have the same amount of evidence to prove otherwise: none.

He scored 8 last year on 70 carries.

 

[Khy]

I thought this was going go be some general advice and guidelines when you first began your post. Then it just turned into your own opinion about certain players. I disagree with a lot of what you posted, so I'd recommend people not following this "draft advice" and form your own opinions about players to rank them yourself.

I'll touch on one. Andre Brown being a "huge TD vulture". What evidence do you have for this? I have the same amount of evidence to prove otherwise: none.

He scored 8 last year on 70 carries.

Kind of irrelevant though when you actually think about it. People are saying to avoid Wilson because Brown will be a huge touchdown vulture but are ignoring the evidence:

• Both Brown and Bradshaw had 12 goal-line carries last season. So clearly the starting RB doesn't lose out on all the goal line carries in the system.
• Wilson scored 4 TDs in 2012 on more or less the same amount of carries. Wilson however scored from 40, 52, 6, 14 where as Brown scored all of his TDs from within 2 yards. A lot of people seem to think Wilson can't exceed 10+ TDs. And I don't actually understand that sentiment. CLEARLY Wilson is a threat to score on any touch from any spot on the field. I feel like the only way to properly evaluate this situation is to attribute Bradshaw's carries to Wilson. Bradshaw's 6 TDs last season were from 10, 4, 1, 1, 13, 1. With 12 goal line carries. Brown will see a lot of goal line carries but this doesn't mean that Wilson won't. If anything I would say Brown got a little lucky last season and won't eclipse 8 TDs again this season.
• Not a single person on the team (coach or players) have made any statement about the time share split between the two. Everyone just seems to assume that it's going to be a 50/50 time share. The best we've gotten is they're going to "ride the hot hand". Wilson is clearly more talented than Brown, he will likely be the hot hand more often then not.
• None of the above bullet points are taking into account that the longest Brown has gone without injury in his career is 71 carries in a season. If he's seeing 10+ carries a game like some people think. It stands to reason he'll be lost for the season sometime around Week 6-7.
• The Giants were 7th in the league last season with 47 TDs. 18 Rushing, 26 Receiving it stands to reason that their offense will be significantly better this season. And should push 50-55 TDs. There is zero reason to believe that we don't see something like Wilson 12 total TDs and Brown 8 total TDs.

2.) Arian Foster is 26, younger than Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, and Marshawn Lynch. If anything he's in his prime, draft him.

I'm going to disagree on this one pretty highly. I've owned Arian Foster in keeper leagues and every redraft league I'm in since his breakout season. This year I'm letting him go and mostly avoiding drafting him unless he drops way more than he should. All of the evidence points to him being the massive let down in the early rounds of drafts this season... for several reasons:

• As Tanner stated above, he's clearly a little banged up this season. The amount of carries he saw last season really put a beating on him I think. I wouldn't be surprised if he saw a serious injury early in the season. For that reason I'm drafting Ben Tate probably a round or so early in most of my leagues as we all know he has the talent to be a RB1 if he was seeing starter carries.
• His YPC have been plummeting every season since his breakout year. He's gone from 4.9 to 4.4 to 4.1... it stands to reason he falls below 4.0 this season even if he plays the whole season.
• His receptions have been plummeting every season since his breakout year. He's gone from 66 to 53 to 40 since his breakout year. It once again stands to reason that he'll be somewhere around 30-40 this season.
• His carries per game have gone up since his breakout season from 20.43 to 21.38 to 21.94.
• Add those last three bullet points up and see what you have. More carries, less yards and less receptions.
• If he doesn't average 1 TD a game again this season like last season, it's going to be bad.

 

[karmarooster]

Aren't these contradictory?

1.) In redraft, QBs are plentiful. You can definitely wait until at least Round 4.

7.) Don't be afraid to double-dip at Quarterback. Make someone elses season a LIVING HELL by taking the last decent Quarterback off the board before they've drafted their first.

If there are so many good QBs (which there are), how are you going to bring the pain on another owner by taking a 2nd? They'll just grab one of the dozen or so decent upside QB2s who have a shot at borderline QB1 numbers. I'm not saying grabbing a second solid QB is a bad idea; but its a bad idea if you sole purpose is to "make some else's life a living hell."

 

[pantherclub]

Aren't these contradictory?

1.) In redraft, QBs are plentiful. You can definitely wait until at least Round 4.

7.) Don't be afraid to double-dip at Quarterback. Make someone elses season a LIVING HELL by taking the last decent Quarterback off the board before they've drafted their first.

If there are so many good QBs (which there are), how are you going to bring the pain on another owner by taking a 2nd? They'll just grab one of the dozen or so decent upside QB2s who have a shot at borderline QB1 numbers. I'm not saying grabbing a second solid QB is a bad idea; but its a bad idea if you sole purpose is to "make some else's life a living hell."

I would rather just draft a top qb in round 1 or 2 (if thats your strategy) and be done with it. I hate trying to figure out the correct match up in QBBC. Having to choose between Cutler or Big Ben is the suck. Just plug in Brees, Rodgers and be done with it.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

2.) Arian Foster is 26, younger than Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, and Marshawn Lynch. If anything he's in his prime, draft him.

He turns 27 in two weeks - the rest of what you said could still apply though.

 

[Ilov80s]

Rookie RBs usually way outperform their ADP? Over the last 5 years, we have seen most rookie RBs fall on their face. Remember Mark Ingram, Daniel Thomas, Knowshon Moreno,CJ Spiller, Ryan Matthews, Donald Brown?

 

[Khy]

Rookie RBs usually way outperform their ADP? Over the last 5 years, we have seen most rookie RBs fall on their face. Remember Mark Ingram, Daniel Thomas, Knowshon Moreno,CJ Spiller, Ryan Matthews, Donald Brown?

This is fantasy football man... last year is considered the "mean" for every other season of fantasy football. You should know that by now, you've been on these boards since 2006.

 

[pantherclub]

Rookie RBs usually way outperform their ADP? Over the last 5 years, we have seen most rookie RBs fall on their face. Remember Mark Ingram, Daniel Thomas, Knowshon Moreno,CJ Spiller, Ryan Matthews, Donald Brown?

This is fantasy football man... last year is considered the "mean" for every other season of fantasy football. You should know that by now, you've been on these boards since 2006.

lol, yep there are going to be a lot of struggling teams if the current trend of loading up on running backs through 2 rounds holds by the time most big money leagues start drafting.

 

[steveski]

I think this year the rookie RB's are overvalued due to last years awesome rookies. I think the rookie RB's fall flat this year and the rookie WR's are the ones that outperform.

 

[pantherclub]

I think this year the rookie RB's are overvalued due to last years awesome rookies. I think the rookie RB's fall flat this year and the rookie WR's are the ones that outperform.

maybe but rookie WR's that perform as wr1 or 2 are extremely rare.

 

[chihawk]

I think this year the rookie RB's are overvalued due to last years awesome rookies. I think the rookie RB's fall flat this year and the rookie WR's are the ones that outperform.

I think you just have to look at the situation that the rookie RBs get placed in. I fell into the Ingram trap a couple of years ago. His situation going into a crowded backfield on a passing team wasn't a recipe for success. A player like Richardson that goes to a run-happy team with much less competition is a much safer bet.

 

[[icon]]

Foster is now sitting out with a bad back, to be paired with his other injuries.he won't make the trip this weekend for their first preseason game. Maybe you should change that to read - 'Draft Ben Tate in the first round, he'll be one of the top 5 RBs in the NFL this season". you and the other Foster backers need to finally take off the blinders, and have a look around..he's not going to be a top 5 RB this season - in fact, he might not be in the top 20..admit it, you're in denial that Foster's workload in 2012 took its toll..its not too late to jump on the Ben Tate Bandwagon!!! climb aboard, there's plenty of room, but it's filling up quickly..

Regarding the impression by some that Foster is used up...

From Heath Cumming's analysis of Foster (a small taste of the great subscriber content writeup on Foster):

"A disproportionate amount of Foster's 2012 struggles happened in three of the last five games of the season. The Texans were 10-1 after 11 games and had two games left against the only threat to their division crown. In the next five games, something really strange happened. In three games against the Patriots, Titans, and Vikings Foster ran the ball 39 times for 99 yards. The three games were his three lowest totals in attempts and YPC. In the two games against the Colts, Foster averaged more than 6 YPC in amassing 261 rushing yards.

It would be easy to say Foster was struggling down the stretch and simply feasted on a bad run defense, at least until you look at his playoff performance. Against the Patriots again, and the Bengals (two teams in the top third of the league against the run) Foster compiled 230 yards on the ground, 15 receptions for 97 yards, and 3 touchdowns. If it wasn't so ridiculous I'd suggest that either the Texans or Foster himself shut things down to prepare for the Colts and the playoffs. Regardless, his playoff performance doesn't look like a run-down back to me."

There is very little evidence that Foster is toast. DEFINITELY not enough to start predicting a fall outside the top 20 Hell, Tate is dealing with a Groin issue himself. Foster is getting the "Vet rest" and will stretch his legs in PS Game 3. We see this every year with workhorse vets.

 

[Ilov80s]

My final suggestion is to make sure you know the rankings/projections of the site you draft and run your league through (Yahoo,CBS,ESPN, etc.) My league is pretty serious, we have all been in it from 5-10 years. Some guys are like me and use message boards, listen to podcasts, do mock drafts,research, etc. However, most of the guys don't put that same level of time into getting ready. So the first few rounds, everyone knows who they like and what they want to do. However, when you get later in the draft, some of the less prepared guys struggle to find players they want so they end up often following the rankings from whichever site we are drafting from. That isn't to say they following blindly, but they definitely use it as a guide to know which players they should be considering. Of course some guys bring their own printed rankings from a fantasy website, but the rankings that you can most expect to dictate the draft will be your host site's rankings. Make sure you have a good idea of how they look, do mocks from that site, etc. I find ESPN vs Yahoo mocks for example can be pretty different.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

I think this year the rookie RB's are overvalued due to last years awesome rookies. I think the rookie RB's fall flat this year and the rookie WR's are the ones that outperform.

I think you just have to look at the situation that the rookie RBs get placed in. I fell into the Ingram trap a couple of years ago. His situation going into a crowded backfield on a passing team wasn't a recipe for success. A player like Richardson that goes to a run-happy team with much less competition is a much safer bet.

Which is why I like Bell, for this season even though I don't think he is all that talented. The Steelers should feed him the ball a lot.