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Johnson so far in his career:| 2001 cin | 12 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 28 329 11.8 1 |
Vick: TDs passing very subpar, passinig yardage very subpar; Completion % poor; No clear #1 WR.| 2001 atl | 8 | 50 113 44.2 785 6.9 2 3 | 29 300 1 |
Let's see. Priest played in 8 games last year and finished 10th... What happens when he plays in 13 games this season or more behind the best offensive line in all of football. Holmes is not done as a football player yet and Vermeil has always proven to be loyal to his guys.I rank Priest high, I take his backup in Johnson if I can land him and I'm set when it comes to my RB1 position.
Who else is on the edge of their seat? Anyone? Anyone?
The third annual LHUCKS FBG Staff Rankings Critique will be out shortly
Favorite memory from '04, No Javon Walker in Levin's top 40(rookie staff mistake I guess)
It wouldn't be early May without LHUCKS' critique. Keep in mind that I for one plan to change 70%-80% of my rankings between now and the end of camp; it's an iterative process so I'm all ears for where people think I'm off base.
The third annual LHUCKS FBG Staff Rankings Critique will be out shortly
Favorite memory from '04, No Javon Walker in Levin's top 40(rookie staff mistake I guess
For myself there are a number of reasons to rank Vick in the top three...#1) The Falcons running game has nowhere to go but down and in all likelihood played past their talent level last season
then how do you explain tiki barber at 23? sophomore mistake?bell at 20 is also questionable i think, but looking at levin's 11-20 rankings:
The third annual LHUCKS FBG Staff Rankings Critique will be out shortly
Favorite memory from '04, No Javon Walker in Levin's top 40(rookie staff mistake I guess
11 lewis bal12 dd hou13 jackson stl14 kj det15 westbrook phi16 cbrown ten17 cmart nyj18 jjones dal19 rjohnson cin20 tbell den
i agree that the best case scenario for priest is a top 5 finish with 13+ games played, im just not sure i would rank based on best case scenarios. It will be huge to see how priests knee reacts in camp. if it passes the test 100%, then sure, i would be willing to put priest in the top 5 - however, he still isnt totally confident in it, and camp is only a few months away. Like Fred Taylor, Holmes's ranking has to be tempered with the risk that his knee is not ready to go for the beginning of the season, or reduces his effectiveness because its slowly deteriorating. Priest carries a significantly higher injury risk than any of the RBs ranked in his echelon.
Actually, there is a lot to be said for FBG having the nuts to put out consensus rankings this early.It wouldn't be early May without LHUCKS' critique. Keep in mind that I for one plan to change 70%-80% of my rankings between now and the end of camp; it's an iterative process so I'm all ears for where people think I'm off base.
The third annual LHUCKS FBG Staff Rankings Critique will be out shortly
Favorite memory from '04, No Javon Walker in Levin's top 40(rookie staff mistake I guess
To myself, Holmes' best case scenario is a clear cut fantasy leader with 28 touchdowns and 1800 total yards of offense. The season is still five months away and I expect Holmes to be ready. If he isn't ready to play, he'll probably not finish in the top twenty so it's a catch-22 at this point in the offseason. My money is on him starting and getting the bulk of the work. If he doesn't, my ranking of him is weak.
So if Vick improves accross the board in all the areas where he sucks and stays the same or improves in all the other areas of his game at the same time, he'll have a decent season?Cool. Now I get it.
Chris,While I agree with you that those projections are not unreasonable (Vick did just about exactly the above in 2002 during Coach Reeve's reign), I think that Vick suffers from not having a bona-fide #1 WR threat. Price just hasn't gotten it done, and Jenkins/Roddy White have a lot of developing to do before they are NFL caliber (coach Mora has publicly stated that White isn't going to see much PT). It may be that Dez White or Brian Finneran can elevate their game this year, but I just don't see a 1,000+ yard go-to-WR in this bunch...
An issue I'm wrestling with re: Vick is the fact that I've seen with my own two eyes that he can be neutralized by a disciplined and talented defense. Before everyone jumps in here, YES, I realize there are only a handful of defenses that have the personnel and discipline to put that plan into effect, but I really see Vick as someone who is largely incapable of becoming a high percentage passer.Earlier in his career I thought he had the chance, but as time goes on I keep going back to the notion that "you can't teach accuracy." There are exceptions to every rule but I just don't see how you fit Vick (square peg) into a high-percentage, timed passing offense (round hole).
:rolling up sleeves:(a)the Falcons overachieved last season resulting in the opportunity to grind it out in most games
) and likes to get the ball down the field. With 440 passing attempts, he could easily reach 3,200 passing yards and is quite capable of tossing 20 touchdown passes.
I agree with this, and the problem is compounded by the fact that two of those defenses are in his division (TB, CAR)
I agree with that LHUCKS. I draft for the playoffs, not September. 95% of the players who might hold out are in uniform and as productive as evah when the money is won. Downgrading players for such reasons creates values on draft day if you're willing to take the associated risk. I, for one, firmly believe in taking risks on draft day and I get hurt sometimes but you also get some big rewards, too.
Another point in Vick's favor... Dude's only 25 years old this season. What were quarterbacks like Jake Delhomme and Trent Green doing at that age.I think Vick compares well to Steve McNair. McNair also was considered an athlete first and a quarterback second.
IMO, you need to take holdouts into consideration when putting rankings together. Most notably when the holdout is a complementary player. If news came out of NE tomorrow, that Koppen was going to hold out until the Patriot renegotiated his contract, then I would most definitely adjust the NE passing game and running game down somewhat until he was back in the fold. Remember, these rankings are for people who might be drafting now, and to rank a player that is holding out currently as if everything was peachy would be doing a disservice. If there is an element of risk regarding a certain player, you can be sure that I would reflect it in my rankings.Everyone has a different tolerance for risk, it is up to each individual to figure out where it is.
I'm as big a Vick fan as anyone. I'm a Hokie homer, so I got to see a lot of him in college. I'm rooting for him to figure it out, but I'm not going to rely on him as my #1 FF QB waiting for him to do it.
I consider myself Mr. Risk Sensitivity, but how many players, especially star players end up missing regular season games due to holdouts...very, very few. So yes risk is added, but in the grand scheme of things the risk really hasn't materialized historically. I'll play the historical percentages and pretty much assume T.O. will be suiting up in week 1.
#1 These rankings were submitted before the Bears announced that Brown would be moving to SS. I'm sure Brown will move up in future versions.#2 Mike Brown finished as the 72nd ranked DB in his last full season.
If I had taken any number of wideouts over McCardell in the Survivor league last year I wouldn't be in the "guppies gaining momentum" division with you. Other players impacted last year included Rivers, Brees, and Pittman. In some leagues, mis-firing on one player will dash any hopes of a championship.
I agree with you on the T.O. scenario. I am specifically referring to holdouts with surrounding players. Specifically, the holdout of Orlando Pace and the injury to Kyle Turley 2 years ago negatively affected the performance of Marshall Faulk. Most people IGNORED that situation and blindly listed Faulk as the number 1 back as if nothing had changed.Now if the situation were reversed, and the complimentary players were in camp, but Faulk was holding out, I would not alter my rankings significantly.
And with Priest comes Larry Johnson as well. Both can/would be very effective, just depends on who's carrying the ball all year. I don't feel comfortable taking Priest in my top 5 picks overall.I view injury/hold outs at this point in slightly different categories with hold outs being less severe. At this point, guys that are complaining about contracts are most likely going to be playing by Week 1. However, injuries definately scare me a bit more, as they sometimes can nag all season long. If I had two players ranked exactly the same and one had an injury but should be back (Fred Taylor) and one is talking about holding out, I would rank the hold out higher today.
For me, SSL 3 was an experimental league as I intentionally drafted risk/reward players like Vick...pretty much to prove it was exactly the opposite of what you should do in the survivor format. I'm using it as an example/case study in my risk management article/paper. For further verification, in my 2004 Rankings Critique I listed Vick as one of the most overrated QBs...thus it wouldn't make much sense for me to jump up and grab him in a survivor league.
I also mentioned this during the draft and in the post-draft commentary of SSL3...if you need verification.
Took McCardell in MBSL3 and his production down the stretch helped me win it all. For me, taking him worked.............you just have to plan for it. For example, I knew he was a risk so I went wide receiver heavy to back him up just in case he did actually hold out. It definately took longer than I thought for him to play, but luckily I was still alive and got a quality player on my roster.
Oh!!!
Whenever Priest plays, he is #1. After week 9 last season, Priest was the #1 RB by a good margin. He was also #1 in 2003 and 2002, and #2 in 2001.To rank Priest outside of the top 2 RBs this year, you have to he's an above-average injury risk. That's certainly reasonable, given his age and injury history. But it's also reasonable to think that he's not really much more of an injury risk than anybody else. In the last five years, he's missed only 10 games.I personally feel a bit safer with Tomlinson, Alexander, and Edge this year. But I wouldn't criticize anyone for ranking Priest #1 overall. If he is healthy, he is dominant.
He is also tall for his height.
True, but certain omissions can skew the results.One thing that I noticed, was the Dave Baker has Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, Cedric Benson and JJ Arrington all listed ahead of the #1 and #3 rushers in the NFL last season in Martin and Dillon. When I see that, I have to make the assumption that he beleives all 4 of those rookies will start immediately and will alll break 900 yards and 5 tds. The other thing that jumps out at me he has 4 Vikings RBs in the top 50.But then it comes off as picking on the staff, I prefer to look at them consensus wise. It's more fun that way to... kind of like me vs. the FBG Staff.
Game on.
