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Footballguys Way Too Early 2025 Rankings - December 30, 2024 (1 Viewer)

Uncle Leo said:
“2.10 - RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens

He turns 31 next week, and Derrick Henry is finally starting to show it.”

🤔
Click to expand...
YRTMGRSHRUSHYDY/RUSHRUSHTDTGTRECRECYDRECTDRANKVBDADP
2016TEN151104904.55151313704035
2017TEN161767444.25171113612635
2018TEN1621510594.9121815990125118
2019TEN1530315395.11625182062213819
2020TEN1637820275.4173119114011836
2021TEN82199374.3102018154016263
2022TEN1634915384.4134133398021354
2023TEN1728011674.21236282140567
2024BAL1630517835.814191717022146
Total1352335112844.8104
 
-OZ- said:
As much as I like Achane, I’m probably not taking him 1.09.

There’s no way I’m taking Chase brown 2.03.

No mention of Mike Evans?
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No. He and Tyreek Hill are outside top 36 overall. Age is tough.

Where would you rank him?
 
Joe Bryant said:
-OZ- said:
As much as I like Achane, I’m probably not taking him 1.09.

There’s no way I’m taking Chase brown 2.03.

No mention of Mike Evans?
Click to expand...

No. He and Tyreek Hill are outside top 36 overall. Age is tough.

Where would you rank him?
Click to expand...
he’s at least worth a mention at the end of the article and in redraft I’d put him with Pickens or jets Garrett Wilson. If Garrett is traded, that boosts him a bit.
 
Uruk-Hai said:
Joe Bryant said:
Uncle Leo said:
“2.10 - RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens

He turns 31 next week, and Derrick Henry is finally starting to show it.”

🤔
Click to expand...

Thanks. Where would you rank him?
Click to expand...
Not to speak for Leo, but I think he was questioning the "finally starting to show it" comment more than the ranking. At least, that's what caught my eye because I don't see it.
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Ah, thanks. Should probably say "will" start to show it to be most cleaer. 31 years old is getting up there. Even for an elite guy like Henry.

The full writeup has more context. https://www.footballguys.com/article/2025-fantasy-football-draft-rankings-way-too-early1230

He turns 31 next week, and Derrick Henry is finally starting to show it. He's a great player and resurged after signing with the Ravens this offseason. But betting on a 31-year-old running back to maintain elite production for an entire season is a stretch. His role and offensive environment give him a massive weekly ceiling but expect volatile week-to-week contributions from Henry next year as he enters his tenth season.
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fantasycurse42 said:
I don’t see Gibbs falling to 8.
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yeah that one sticks out

could also see swapping JT for Hall

even though my redraft is full PPR, I'm dubious Round 1 won't see more RBs (& couple fewer R2)

good first draft, though - actually put together a Top 100 over the weekend and while I could quibble pretty much everything on the FBG Top 36 is defensible
 
BassNBrew said:
-OZ- said:
As much as I like Achane, I’m probably not taking him 1.09.

There’s no way I’m taking Chase brown 2.03.

No mention of Mike Evans?
Click to expand...
Brown at 2.3 reminds me of ETN.
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Nah. Brown is the up and coming RB. This year ETN had Bigsby who was at least a threat.
While ETN declined as the season progressed last year, Brown rocketed to the moon.
#1 RB on a top 5 offense? Yes please.

Now, if Cincy drafts or signs somebody, that could change.
 
Payne said:
Now, if Cincy drafts or signs somebody, that could change.
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It’s premature, but with the quality depth of this class, drafting a back seems likely. Of course they have other pressing issues to address first.
 
Henry at 2.10 with Mixon at 2.11 seems off. And I like Mixon. But I'd take Henry at least a round earlier than I'd take Mixon, wherever that might be.

Agree on Achane. On paper, he probably deserves that spot, but I think he's too risky (well, more like his QB is too risky) to spend my 1st on him. Gladly take him in the 2nd, but he'll probably be gone. And that's fine. I need a sure thing in the 1st, not somebody who disappears when their QB (who still hasn't learned to slide/protect himself) misses a game. Nobody is a sure thing, obviously. But, RB's carry risk. When there is extra risk added because of that RB's QB, I proceed with caution. And if that comes back to bite me, so be it.
 
I feel like there will be a lot more RBs high this year vs. last. I for one will do almost anything to get Gibbs. I was always a doubter but the past few weeks getting the full workload totally changed my tune.
 
Golden Gopher said:
Henry at 2.10 with Mixon at 2.11 seems off. And I like Mixon. But I'd take Henry at least a round earlier than I'd take Mixon, wherever that might be.
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Mixon seemed to show age as the year went along. He dropped way off in the second half. How much was due to the ankle injury and how much to age? Who knows but it is a big enough red flag that he will drop down pretty significantly because of it (IMO).
 
Gally said:
Payne said:
Now, if Cincy drafts or signs somebody, that could change.
Click to expand...
This is really the only question mark for Brown at this point. If the Bengals don't bring anybody of consequence into the fold he has top 5 upside for sure.
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I'll anxiously be monitoring the Cincy off season decisions for sure. It will be very telling what the FO thinks of Brown if they draft a guy in the 3rd or sign a solid vet.
 
Anything is possible but would be pretty surprised if Cincy did anything more than add depth for Brown, not saying won't be someone solid maybe a Zach Moss type (maybe they just bring him back not sure his contract or injury situation) but would be pretty surprised if he wasn't the lead guy next year.
 
What am I missing with Pickens?

FantasyPros had him high on their Early ADP article.

He's WR37 on a PPG basis in PPR. I don't hate or dislike him. He's just not a 3rd round pick or top 14 WR in my eyes.

McLaurin should clearly be above/ahead of him.
I'm still taking Mike Evans ahead of him.
I'm still taking Tyreke Hill ahead of him.
I want Ladd McConkey over him.
I think a Sophomore Marvin Harrison Jr. is better.
Give me DJ Moore bouncing back with a sophomore Caleb.
Give me Devonta Smith.

40% target share sounds great. I just haven't seen enough from Pickens to make him a top 15 WR.
 
Henry's age wont concern me as much as total career carries. Didn't he get a late start and has fewer career carries than other bell cows his age? He has another year in BAL. I dont see his situation getting much worse.
 
How cool would it be if you could predict sophomore slumps and avoid them or trade those players?
That's my first thought. The excitement of the rookies worries my experienced FF mind. I've been burned. Haven't we all? They look so good and are so talented though.

I'd say he's a little too high on Chase Brown. The former fifth round pick doesn't have the pedigree to stop camp competition. Moss showed us that. I think he's a smidge under 1000 yards still too.

My Gates and Tony G memories have me thinking he's a bit too high on the TEs but if they go then ya gotta get one and fine. I'd be fine ranking em anywhere but also it's like there's always been an assumed "too early" point for TEs in FF. I gotta have two picks before I get a TE. @Joe Bryant probably knows what I mean. There's a mental pause a "wait a sec" even though they certainly belong ranked there.

I think Jeanty is the next star. He feels a bit late to me although with no team yet I get it.

Dave loves Gibbs. It makes me chuckle knowing he's a Bears fan and that must sting. I appreciate the honesty of that ranking.
 
Scoresman said:
Henry's age wont concern me as much as total career carries. Didn't he get a late start and has fewer career carries than other bell cows his age? He has another year in BAL. I dont see his situation getting much worse.
Click to expand...
Yeah, DeMarco Murray.
Everything with Henry will be repeating last year's discussion again this year. It's what we do with older backs
 
Scoresman said:
Henry's age wont concern me as much as total career carries. Didn't he get a late start and has fewer career carries than other bell cows his age? He has another year in BAL. I dont see his situation getting much worse.
Click to expand...
He definitely didn't get run into the ground early as some other backs have. Plus he has a famous off season program and work ethic.
 
Brian Thomas Jr may see a bit of TD regression which will sadden some. He will still be just as awesome and I might swoop in if it’s possible to acquire him mid season.
 
Bri said:
I'd say he's a little too high on Chase Brown. The former fifth round pick doesn't have the pedigree to stop camp competition. Moss showed us that. I think he's a smidge under 1000 yards still too.
Click to expand...

Brown showed great ability as a runner, pass catcher and pass protector. I think he's the total package personally.

He would have hit 1,000 rushing (he's 10 yard short atm) by now too if he didn't split time with Moss for the first like 8 weeks. Not to mention he has 360 receiving yards.
 
RaidersAreOne said:
Bri said:
I'd say he's a little too high on Chase Brown. The former fifth round pick doesn't have the pedigree to stop camp competition. Moss showed us that. I think he's a smidge under 1000 yards still too.
Click to expand...

Brown showed great ability as a runner, pass catcher and pass protector. I think he's the total package personally.

He would have hit 1,000 rushing (he's 10 yard short atm) by now too if he didn't split time with Moss for the first like 8 weeks. Not to mention he has 360 receiving yards.
Click to expand...
He has one 100 yard game
Great?
That's not the adjective I'd use. Not be semantics and all but the ranking leans more towards great and that's my point you're countering. He's a bit high.
 
In a million dollar buy in league I just couldn't take Chase Brown over Jonathan Taylor. Crazy that Taylor is only 25 and just over one year older then Brown. Missed three games this year and still hit double digit in tds. Has 55 career tds in 66 career games. Give me him at this 3rd round adp? Heck ya.
 
Pretty much in agreement at QB. I do think if they add another major pass catcher, that Justin Herbert could become interesting, but not above any of the listed QBs, just more as an honorable mention type. If Higgins stays in Cincinnati, it'll be hard to not have Burrow in the top-36. Burrow is the new Drew Brees in my opinion.

Personally, I'm letting someone else take Barkley at 1.1 (I'd go Chase) but I think he'll be the #1 in the majority of drafts. I do wonder if Bijan could be the #1 RB. Allgeier really stopped being a problem down the stretch.

I also think Henry is too low. He's a mold breaker, and he's in an ideal offense. He's also playing arguably as well as ever. He's still top-15 overall to me.

I like the Bucky Irving aggressiveness, personally, I'm much more of a believer in Bucky than I am Chase Brown. I'd take him over Hall and CMC too. Really gives me a LeSean McCoy vibe and could become the offensive centerpiece. I think he's gonna be my guy in a lot of drafts next year, I think he could sneak into round 1.

I think Jacobs could be more on the 1/2 turn border. I think Conner should be above honorable mention, after his extension. Full job security and offensive centerpiece. I don't see a real difference between Conner and guys like Hubbard, Taylor, Mixon, or even Kyren.

I don't mind how low Taylor is. He's maybe the most boom/bust RB in the league, and he doesn't catch.

I like Thomas and Nabers a lot, but I'm probably not ready to be taking them over AJ Brown or Amon-Ra. Just too many QB questions, and sophomore slump potential. I think Thomas/Nabers are more 12-15 range guys.

I like the Puka boldness. Through 2 years, he honestly looks like he could be another Jefferson, and he has less target competition. I wouldn't call someone crazy taking him 1.1.

I might be slightly lower on Lamb, but that's more about Dallas than him. I think his ceiling just isn't as high as it used to be, even with Dak, who also doesn't have as high a ceiling as he used to. Lamb is probably end of round 1 for me. I think see as similar to AJ/Amon-Ra.

I love Brock Bowers, and think he'll go in that range, but its hard for me to justify it, if McBride and Kittle are going 12/24 picks later. I think Kittle could again be a nice value, especially if Deebo leaves, and Aiyuk is slow to recover form his ACL. Not worried about his age at all.
 
jm192 said:
What am I missing with Pickens?

FantasyPros had him high on their Early ADP article.

He's WR37 on a PPG basis in PPR. I don't hate or dislike him. He's just not a 3rd round pick or top 14 WR in my eyes.

McLaurin should clearly be above/ahead of him.
I'm still taking Mike Evans ahead of him.
I'm still taking Tyreke Hill ahead of him.
I want Ladd McConkey over him.
I think a Sophomore Marvin Harrison Jr. is better.
Give me DJ Moore bouncing back with a sophomore Caleb.
Give me Devonta Smith.

40% target share sounds great. I just haven't seen enough from Pickens to make him a top 15 WR.
Click to expand...
78-1304-7 pace with Russell Wilson. Also had SO MANY near misses. Could easily have 200+ yards and 4-5 more TDs. He's clearly shown year to year improvement as a player, and if you care about this sort of thing, he is going into a contract year.
 
travdogg said:
jm192 said:
What am I missing with Pickens?

FantasyPros had him high on their Early ADP article.

He's WR37 on a PPG basis in PPR. I don't hate or dislike him. He's just not a 3rd round pick or top 14 WR in my eyes.

McLaurin should clearly be above/ahead of him.
I'm still taking Mike Evans ahead of him.
I'm still taking Tyreke Hill ahead of him.
I want Ladd McConkey over him.
I think a Sophomore Marvin Harrison Jr. is better.
Give me DJ Moore bouncing back with a sophomore Caleb.
Give me Devonta Smith.

40% target share sounds great. I just haven't seen enough from Pickens to make him a top 15 WR.
Click to expand...
78-1304-7 pace with Russell Wilson. Also had SO MANY near misses. Could easily have 200+ yards and 4-5 more TDs. He's clearly shown year to year improvement as a player, and if you care about this sort of thing, he is going into a contract year.
Click to expand...
He’s the kind of player I’d put on my DND list…mostly because I’d only want him as my WR3 at best, and (hopefully) someone else is higher on him than i am so he goes earlier.

Massive knucklehead factor and a bit boom/bust. I will prefer many over him next year.
 
Last edited:
Derrick Henry had 20 or more carries in 7 games this year. He topped 100 yards in all 7 games, and averaged 6.1 yards per carry in those games. This year, he had an 87-yard touchdown run where he reached 21.29 miles per hour, and he bettered that a few weeks later by topping out at 21.72 miles per hour on an 81 yard run. Fun fact - guess which NFL RB holds the record for most times reaching 20mph while carrying the ball?

I understand Henry will be 31 next week, but to say he is already starting to show his age is completely false. He was a late 1st this year, and he exceeded that. Now he's a late 2nd, behind some guy who isn't even in the NFL yet?
 
TheWinz said:
Derrick Henry had 20 or more carries in 7 games this year. He topped 100 yards in all 7 games, and averaged 6.1 yards per carry in those games. This year, he had an 87-yard touchdown run where he reached 21.29 miles per hour, and he bettered that a few weeks later by topping out at 21.72 miles per hour on an 81 yard run. Fun fact - guess which NFL RB holds the record for most times reaching 20mph while carrying the ball?

I understand Henry will be 31 next week, but to say he is already starting to show his age is completely false. He was a late 1st this year, and he exceeded that. Now he's a late 2nd, behind some guy who isn't even in the NFL yet?
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Thanks. Should probably say "will" start to show it to be most cleaer. 31 years old is getting up there. Even for an elite guy like Henry.

The full writeup has more context. https://www.footballguys.com/article/2025-fantasy-football-draft-rankings-way-too-early1230

He turns 31 next week, and Derrick Henry is finally starting to show it. He's a great player and resurged after signing with the Ravens this offseason. But betting on a 31-year-old running back to maintain elite production for an entire season is a stretch. His role and offensive environment give him a massive weekly ceiling but expect volatile week-to-week contributions from Henry next year as he enters his tenth season.
Click to expand...

Where would you rank him for 2025?
 
I love Henry. He is one of my favorite players to watch play football. Dude is a freak of nature. I also want to say that when the fall for nfl RBS happens, it happens quickly. I think he has one more top 10 fantasy RB season. Then he falls. Love you Henry.
 
Joe Bryant said:
Where would you rank him for 2025?
Click to expand...
I think BAL used him well, but not overused. 322 touches through 16 games is a massive load for most, but Henry easily has at least another season in him, and maybe more. Yes, his 5.8 YPC is his highest ever, but it wasn't shocking, considering he was going to a team with Lamar at QB. Even if you dropped the YPC down to 5.0, it would only drop him down from RB4 to RB6 in PPR and from RB2 to RB4 in non-PPR. I will split the difference and say RB5.

Gun to your head - if you had to name 5 RB's that will have 300+ touches in 2025, would Henry be on your list?
For the record, I just checked after asking the question, and exactly 5 RB's currently have over 300 touches, and they are all in the top 7.
 
TheWinz said:
Joe Bryant said:
Where would you rank him for 2025?
Click to expand...
I think BAL used him well, but not overused. 322 touches through 16 games is a massive load for most, but Henry easily has at least another season in him, and maybe more. Yes, his 5.8 YPC is his highest ever, but it wasn't shocking, considering he was going to a team with Lamar at QB. Even if you dropped the YPC down to 5.0, it would only drop him down from RB4 to RB6 in PPR and from RB2 to RB4 in non-PPR. I will split the difference and say RB5.

Gun to your head - if you had to name 5 RB's that will have 300+ touches in 2025, would Henry be on your list?
For the record, I just checked after asking the question, and exactly 5 RB's currently have over 300 touches, and they are all in the top 7.
Click to expand...

Thanks. It'll be interesting for sure. He's of course elite and has been for a while. But when production drops, it sometimes drops fast. Will be interesting to see if that happens to him. And part of what makes the game interesting.

And of course, as the title says, these rankings 9 months before the season starts are ridiculously too early. But still fun. They'll change a ton.
 
Bri said:
RaidersAreOne said:
Bri said:
I'd say he's a little too high on Chase Brown. The former fifth round pick doesn't have the pedigree to stop camp competition. Moss showed us that. I think he's a smidge under 1000 yards still too.
Click to expand...

Brown showed great ability as a runner, pass catcher and pass protector. I think he's the total package personally.

He would have hit 1,000 rushing (he's 10 yard short atm) by now too if he didn't split time with Moss for the first like 8 weeks. Not to mention he has 360 receiving yards.
Click to expand...
He has one 100 yard game
Great?
That's not the adjective I'd use. Not be semantics and all but the ranking leans more towards great and that's my point you're countering. He's a bit high.
Click to expand...
To me, this is a product of coaching. In my opinion, Cincy needs more balance. Burrow is putting up great numbers, but they need to run the ball more to help their defense out. Couldn't believe how many sacks Burrow took while they were in an empty backfield on 1st and 10. Makes no sense.
 
Payne said:
Bri said:
RaidersAreOne said:
Bri said:
I'd say he's a little too high on Chase Brown. The former fifth round pick doesn't have the pedigree to stop camp competition. Moss showed us that. I think he's a smidge under 1000 yards still too.
Click to expand...

Brown showed great ability as a runner, pass catcher and pass protector. I think he's the total package personally.

He would have hit 1,000 rushing (he's 10 yard short atm) by now too if he didn't split time with Moss for the first like 8 weeks. Not to mention he has 360 receiving yards.
Click to expand...
He has one 100 yard game
Great?
That's not the adjective I'd use. Not be semantics and all but the ranking leans more towards great and that's my point you're countering. He's a bit high.
Click to expand...
To me, this is a product of coaching. In my opinion, Cincy needs more balance. Burrow is putting up great numbers, but they need to run the ball more to help their defense out. Couldn't believe how many sacks Burrow took while they were in an empty backfield on 1st and 10. Makes no sense.
Click to expand...
I don't disagree here.
Callahan does the same stuff.
I often wonder what the rhyme or reason is for running with the Bengals or Titans.
I'm sure there's a deceptive value in this-the Bengals have zero issues moving the ball- but there's so many times in short yardage that I simply feel it's "man up" time. Put your back in and tell your linemen we're getting this yard. I also wind up thinking I'm old too so...
 
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