For those of you who like to wait on QB (1 Viewer)

[cobalt_27]

Title pretty much explains it all. I typically go into a draft with the attitude of waiting on a QB until somewhere between rounds 6-10 and stick with that. That said, if you're a VBD drafter, at what point does Manning represent value? He's listed at #7 in my VBD app but I don't think I'd take him until around 15 or 20 if that at all. If Manning continued to fall and everyone thought like you and liked to wait on a QB, at what point to you take him?

2.01? 2.07? 2.12? I think I take him somewhere around 2.04 after my top 12 RBs and top 3 WRs...

1.03, unless I'm in a stupid RB-heavy league. Then, get the hell out and find a *real* league with some actual thought invested in how stupid these RB drafts have become.

Get over it

Not until the stupid 4ptPaTD and 2-start RB leagues are abolished from the face of the earth (or, for heaven's sake, at least institute 2QBs), I prolly won't. You'll just have to get over me not getting over it.

 

[(HULK)]

In my oldest main league, I am choosing to keep Manning as my 1 keeper over Frank Gore.

I know thats probably unpopular, but it was also unpopular last year when I kept Manning over Lamont Jordan, and that worked out pretty well.

This league though, its 1/20 yards passing, and 6 pt TDs... and its only 8 teams. In 8 team leagues, you absolutely can wait on RB. I do it every year. Last year I rode Frank Gore, Chester Taylor, and MJD to the championship.

In a league with 8 teams and a QB friendly scoring system, the only player I would take over Manning is LT.

 

[illiterate]

It all comes down to your projections, and how accurate those projections are. How much is losing his LT going to affect his numbers?

In my league (12 team) with our scoring system (6pt tds non ppr) he can't be taken any later than 1.10 because of the value you can get at RB at 2.03. If he is the only non RB taken before 2.03 you are looking at RB14 at that spot. The difference between RB14 and RB10 has been small historically in our league. Compared to the large difference I would see in our league between QB1 and QB7,8,9 that I would see in round 6.

 

[Spartans Rule]

For people who want to be sure that their first round pick ends up producing, you tell me who is more of a sure thing?a. Manningb. Gorec. Addaid. Parkere. Westbrookf. AlexanderI am not saying you take him over those guys, but a person could certainly make an argument that Manning is the most sure thing out of them.

The problem with this argument is that, in general, QBs are more sure things than RBs. By taking the "sure thing" here, eventually you're going to put yourself in a position to take a RB that isn't a sure thing. For example, in the 3rd round you might be faced with a choice between Brandon Jacobs, Marshawn Lynch, Cadillac Williams or Tom Brady. I'd feel safer with Addai and Brady than Manning and Jacobs.

 

[JMJ]

I normally always wait on QBs but I may be drafting Peyton this year. I have 12th pick in a 12 man league and I only have 10 RBs who have first round grades.

So what I'm thinking is this:

Go with both Peyton and Marvin at the 1.12, 2.1 wrap around and have that lethal combo getting me double points for everything they do, then take 2 mid-round RBs like Deuce McAllister, Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson, etc with my 3.12, 4.1 wrap around.

I tried it last night in a mock draft and my team after my first 6 picks wound up being:

Peyton Manning

Marshawn Lynch

Deuce McAllister

Fred Taylor

Marvin Harrison

Darrell Jackson

I can live with that drafting from the 12th spot of a 12 man league. Again, the Peyton-Marvin combo shows no sign of slowing down and they would be combined with three double-digit per game RBs.

Who likes and who doesn't?

 

[Spartans Rule]

Title pretty much explains it all. I typically go into a draft with the attitude of waiting on a QB until somewhere between rounds 6-10 and stick with that. That said, if you're a VBD drafter, at what point does Manning represent value? He's listed at #7 in my VBD app but I don't think I'd take him until around 15 or 20 if that at all. If Manning continued to fall and everyone thought like you and liked to wait on a QB, at what point to you take him?2.01? 2.07? 2.12? I think I take him somewhere around 2.04 after my top 12 RBs and top 3 WRs...

What's the point of using a VBD app if you're simply going to ignore it? If it's telling you Manning is a good pick then you shouldn't be afraid to pull the trigger simply because it's unconventional.

The key is dynamic VBD here. If your leaguemates go overboard on the RBs, then the VBD app may keep telling you that QB is an unbelievably good value every single round. Manning may look like slightly better value than a top RB at 1.07, but by taking him you eliminate the chance to get another great QB value later on and almost force yourself to draft running backs regardless of whether they are good value.

If your leaguemates stock up on rb's you can stock up on top quality wr's. You'll have a hole at a position they have gobs of depth at but you'll have loads of talent at a position they're also lacking.

You can stock up on WRs in rounds 2-4 either way. The choice between Manning and the top RB in Round 1 is what we're talking about here.My point is this: if for your first round pick, Manning has a VBD value of 90 and another RB has a value of 80, but you know that three rounds later the top QB on the board will have a VBD value of 30 and the top RB on the board will be a baseline player or worse, it makes sense to go for the RB in the first round even if the VBD app tells you otherwise.

 

[LordHusker]

I normally always wait on QBs but I may be drafting Peyton this year. I have 12th pick in a 12 man league and I only have 10 RBs who have first round grades.So what I'm thinking is this:Go with both Peyton and Marvin at the 1.12, 2.1 wrap around and have that lethal combo getting me double points for everything they do, then take 2 mid-round RBs like Deuce McAllister, Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson, etc with my 3.12, 4.1 wrap around.I tried it last night in a mock draft and my team after my first 6 picks wound up beingeyton ManningMarshawn LynchDeuce McAllisterFred TaylorMarvin HarrisonDarrell JacksonI can live with that drafting from the 12th spot of a 12 man league. Again, the Peyton-Marvin combo shows no sign of slowing down and they would be combined with three double-digit per game RBs.Who likes and who doesn't?

I'd be near-suicidal with that RB situation.

 

[AnonymousBob]

I normally always wait on QBs but I may be drafting Peyton this year. I have 12th pick in a 12 man league and I only have 10 RBs who have first round grades.So what I'm thinking is this:Go with both Peyton and Marvin at the 1.12, 2.1 wrap around and have that lethal combo getting me double points for everything they do, then take 2 mid-round RBs like Deuce McAllister, Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson, etc with my 3.12, 4.1 wrap around.I tried it last night in a mock draft and my team after my first 6 picks wound up beingeyton ManningMarshawn LynchDeuce McAllisterFred TaylorMarvin HarrisonDarrell JacksonI can live with that drafting from the 12th spot of a 12 man league. Again, the Peyton-Marvin combo shows no sign of slowing down and they would be combined with three double-digit per game RBs.Who likes and who doesn't?

I like it. It doesn't have the typical roster look to it but I'd be fine with that team. Of course, as always, it would depend on the scoring system, how many players you start, and so on and so forth.

 

[JMJ]

I normally always wait on QBs but I may be drafting Peyton this year. I have 12th pick in a 12 man league and I only have 10 RBs who have first round grades.So what I'm thinking is this:Go with both Peyton and Marvin at the 1.12, 2.1 wrap around and have that lethal combo getting me double points for everything they do, then take 2 mid-round RBs like Deuce McAllister, Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson, etc with my 3.12, 4.1 wrap around.I tried it last night in a mock draft and my team after my first 6 picks wound up beingeyton ManningMarshawn LynchDeuce McAllisterFred TaylorMarvin HarrisonDarrell JacksonI can live with that drafting from the 12th spot of a 12 man league. Again, the Peyton-Marvin combo shows no sign of slowing down and they would be combined with three double-digit per game RBs.Who likes and who doesn't?

I like it. It doesn't have the typical roster look to it but I'd be fine with that team. Of course, as always, it would depend on the scoring system, how many players you start, and so on and so forth.

Passing TDs = 61 pt for ever 25 yardsNo PPRStart 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1 RB/WR so all 6 players above would start on a weekly basis.

 

[SSOG]

The "guys that like to wait on QBs" let someone absolutely steal Manning in our auction this year. He went for $12 less (out of $200) than he did last year. I was the only person bidding against the guy and had to bow out since I already had Steven Jackson and needed to be able to fill out the rest of my roster.

This is the kind of concept I want to address. I think we all get somewhat paralyzed by the "wait on a QB" concept. At some point in the draft Manning presents a good amount of value, even if your plan is to wait on QBs. I'm thinking that point is somewhere near the early to mid-2nd...

People have to post how many teams are in the league..8-10-12-14..mid second in a 8 team league is late first in a 14 team league.

In addition, Manning's value is SIGNIFICANTLY higher in smaller leagues. For instance, I play in an 8-team league (I know, I know...), and in a league like that, your RB3 is generally still top-24 (which is RB2 caliber in a 12-teamer). As a result of that depth, passing on an RB early on will barely impact your roster, whereas getting a superstud at QB makes a huge difference in point differential. In a standard 8-team league, I'd consider Manning starting at 1.03 or 1.04.