Gamblers Corner - Correct Hedge for Final Four? (1 Viewer)

[ghostguy123]

Because you're using known results to try and justify poor gambling strategy. Lots of things can happen in a sample size of 1 - that's called variance, a concept you still don't understand.

I don't care what his particular strategy was.

I am talking about the situation he faced last night.

 

[ghostguy123]

So it was a stupid bet, much like the original one Cyclones made. And like I've noted, there's plenty of times including the one presented in this post where a hedge is less stupid than the original bet itself.

Of course it was a stupid bet.......................question is, what would you do?

 

[DrJ]

The only time you should ever "hedge" a wager is if you overbet.

You put $5 on a 10 team parlay that will pay out $250K. Only game left that you need is the Bucks to win @MIA. You aren't going to hedge on that?

Why did you place such a high variance bet if you're looking to sacrifice equity as soon as part of it hits?

I understand what you guys are saying here. If the payout is so necessary to bank prematurely, then you bet too big. This isn't 100% though. It is possible to make a bet like the OP that is not outside your bankroll.

If you have a 5k bankroll and come across a 40-1 futures bet that you think has a 10% chance of hitting, 200 bucks is not too big of a bet. Futures opportunities like this are finite. It could literally never happen again. If you get to where you are in the championship game you are basically making what equates to a 4k bet. That is too big of a bet now to make with a 5k bankroll (especially if you think the game is nothing more than a coinflip).

It absolutely is too big of a bet. You're wagering 4% of your bankroll on a really long shot. As a rough guideline, you shouldn't even be sitting down at a poker table that you believe you have the edge at with more than 5% or so of your bankroll. You sit down with 20% of your money and it isn't going to take too many random 2 outers before all of your money is gone.

 

[ghostguy123]

It absolutely is too big of a bet. You're wagering 4% of your bankroll on a really long shot. As a rough guideline, you shouldn't even be sitting down at a poker table that you believe you have the edge at with more than 5% or so of your bankroll. You sit down with 20% of your money and it isn't going to take too many random 2 outers before all of your money is gone.

You do (well, no you dont) realize he only made this bet because it was his home team, and they had a huge payout, plus they obviously have a lot of talent.

This isn't his overall strategy for the way he lives his life.

 

[DrJ]

It absolutely is too big of a bet. You're wagering 4% of your bankroll on a really long shot. As a rough guideline, you shouldn't even be sitting down at a poker table that you believe you have the edge at with more than 5% or so of your bankroll. You sit down with 20% of your money and it isn't going to take too many random 2 outers before all of your money is gone.

You do (well, no you dont) realize he only made this bet because it was his home team, and they had a huge payout, plus they obviously have a lot of talent.

This isn't his overall strategy for the way he lives his life.

Yes, and that's why I said that his hedge was less dumb than the original bet.

 

[QuizGuy66]

As an Illini fan who will burn $5 on them winning the BCS National Championship if I get to Vega$ before then I assure you that if they make it to that title game I surely will hedge so I end up with +$ in my bank account at the end of the situation rather than riding the 10000/1 odds or whatever

But according to EV theory I am breaking my budget with that $5 wager on my alma mater.

-QG

 

[DrJ]

As an Illini fan who will burn $5 on them winning the BCS National Championship if I get to Vega$ before then I assure you that if they make it to that title game I surely will hedge so I end up with +$ in my bank account at the end of the situation rather than riding the 10000/1 odds or whatever

But according to EV theory I am breaking my budget with that $5 wager on my alma mater.

-QG

No, it's just a stupid bet. But people waste their money on dumb stuff all of the time.

When you do hedge, it will be less dumb than this bet.

 

[ghostguy123]

Yes, and that's why I said that his hedge was less dumb than the original bet.

And your persistence in calling his hedge "dumb" is idiotic. For one, his personal preference was to guarantee himself money.

And two, the situation was a perfect storm of odds in his favor and his thought on the game were "its a coinflip",

 

[ghostguy123]

No, it's just a stupid bet. But people waste their money on dumb stuff all of the time.

When you do hedge, it will be less dumb than this bet.

You ever spent 5 bucks on something for fun before?? I guess every one of those purchases was also dumb.

It's no different than spending 5 bucks to see a movie.

Do you know what FUN is?

 

[ghostguy123]

it's not a chopper in a hopper......it's HEDGE-O-MATIC!!!

 

[DrJ]

No, it's just a stupid bet. But people waste their money on dumb stuff all of the time.

When you do hedge, it will be less dumb than this bet.

You ever spent 5 bucks on something for fun before?? I guess every one of those purchases was also dumb.

It's no different than spending 5 bucks to see a movie.

Do you know what FUN is?

I'm in the FFA Lotto Club. I do feel it's essentially a form of taxation for the stupid and mathematically challenged and have avoided playing it for most of my 40 years, but for some reason I didn't want to see a bunch of you get rich without me. So, yes.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Again - why did you make this bet to begin with? And why didn't you start hedging after the 4th or 5th bet hit and you started to have large sums of money on the table? Nothing about this stupid strategy makes any sense.

throwing $5 on a long-shot makes no sense? ok. if you say so.

not sure why millions buy lottery tickets either. if there was a way to hedge there, I bet people would do it too.

 

[ghostguy123]

Again - why did you make this bet to begin with? And why didn't you start hedging after the 4th or 5th bet hit and you started to have large sums of money on the table? Nothing about this stupid strategy makes any sense.

throwing $5 on a long-shot makes no sense? ok. if you say so.

not sure why millions buy lottery tickets either. if there was a way to hedge there, I bet people would do it too.

I think they call it a lump sum

 

[ghostguy123]

I'm in the FFA Lotto Club. I do feel it's essentially a form of taxation for the stupid and mathematically challenged and have avoided playing it for most of my 40 years, but for some reason I didn't want to see a bunch of you get rich without me. So, yes.

yes the lotto has the worst odds of anything. Good work playing that. Makes you calling everyone dumb for making bets look that much cooler.

anyway, anything else to talk about?

Clearly Cy is a ####### rAtard for betting on kentucky. Now that we have established that, any new order of business?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

if you bought a lotto ticket that had all but 1 number correct and were given an opportunity to hedge/lock in profit before the final number was drawn, who wouldn't do so?

"well it only cost $1, so why bother?"

it's absurd.

 

[DrJ]

You guys are really digging in deep on your mathematical challenges.

 

[Frostillicus]

You're saying 100% of the time I should just let it ride?

There's no scenario that exists where betting AGAINST the team I have a futures bet on would make any financial sense?

It depends on your situation. Can you afford to spend the money to not let it ride? Does it make "financial sense" (whatever that means) for you to have less but have certain? I can't answer that for you.

bankroll is not really a concern here. let's assume the bet is less than 1% of total bankroll. I don't think it makes much sense to be putting big money on 40:1 longshots. these are usually more bets for fun that have a shot at paying out in the end, or at least presenting a great hedge opportunity to lock in profits when they get close.

I'm with you here. Depending on the profiyt of the original bet, i will take a hedge opportunity to gurantee some money.

I am as well. I don't disagree that it's not the correct play mathematically, but I'm simply more comfortable doing this.

 

[Nipsey]

Again - why did you make this bet to begin with? And why didn't you start hedging after the 4th or 5th bet hit and you started to have large sums of money on the table? Nothing about this stupid strategy makes any sense.

throwing $5 on a long-shot makes no sense? ok. if you say so.

not sure why millions buy lottery tickets either. if there was a way to hedge there, I bet people would do it too.

I'm a lotto hedger. I buy one quick pick ticket and then buy 39 more tickets with the same first 5 numbers as the quick pick ticket but for the 6th number I cover the other 39 possibilities. Others spend just a buck and I spend 40 but they need to match 6 numbers, I only need to match 5. It's like paying extra money to get that middle space free in Bingo. People think it's dumb to do that but who do you hear screaming BINGO! every other game?

 

[ghostguy123]

You guys are really digging in deep on your mathematical challenges.

No one is challenging your math you ####### troll.

Your math just didnt apply to last nights action. Wake the #### up

 

[ghostguy123]

Again - why did you make this bet to begin with? And why didn't you start hedging after the 4th or 5th bet hit and you started to have large sums of money on the table? Nothing about this stupid strategy makes any sense.

throwing $5 on a long-shot makes no sense? ok. if you say so.

not sure why millions buy lottery tickets either. if there was a way to hedge there, I bet people would do it too.

I'm a lotto hedger. I buy one quick pick ticket and then buy 39 more tickets with the same first 5 numbers as the quick pick ticket but for the 6th number I cover the other 39 possibilities. Others spend just a buck and I spend 40 but they need to match 6 numbers, I only need to match 5. It's like paying extra money to get that middle space free in Bingo. People think it's dumb to do that but who do you hear screaming BINGO! every other game?

your odds of winning the lotto doing that are the same (if you buy 40 tickets one week) as someone playing one ticket per week for 40 weeks straight.

 

[[icon]]

As an Illini fan who will burn $5 on them winning the BCS National Championship if I get to Vega$ before then I assure you that if they make it to that title game I surely will hedge so I end up with +$ in my bank account at the end of the situation rather than riding the 10000/1 odds or whatever

But according to EV theory I am breaking my budget with that $5 wager on my alma mater.

-QG

I.Am.The.EV.Robot.

[break]

Doing.Something.That.Violates.EV.Is.Illogical.

[break]

Variance.Doesnt.Matter.Individual.Wishes.Never.Matter.Fun.Never.Matters.Always.Follow.Optimal.EV.

[break]

 

[Nipsey]

Again - why did you make this bet to begin with? And why didn't you start hedging after the 4th or 5th bet hit and you started to have large sums of money on the table? Nothing about this stupid strategy makes any sense.

throwing $5 on a long-shot makes no sense? ok. if you say so.

not sure why millions buy lottery tickets either. if there was a way to hedge there, I bet people would do it too.

I'm a lotto hedger. I buy one quick pick ticket and then buy 39 more tickets with the same first 5 numbers as the quick pick ticket but for the 6th number I cover the other 39 possibilities. Others spend just a buck and I spend 40 but they need to match 6 numbers, I only need to match 5. It's like paying extra money to get that middle space free in Bingo. People think it's dumb to do that but who do you hear screaming BINGO! every other game?

your odds of winning the lotto doing that are the same (if you buy 40 tickets one week) as someone playing one ticket per week for 40 weeks straight.

Not if you're buying the tickets mid-drawing.

 

[ghostguy123]

Not if you're buying the tickets mid-drawing.

you goin somewhere with this?

 

[Major]

Should have let it ride. Maximum EV

 

[gianmarco]

The only time you should ever "hedge" a wager is if you overbet.

You put $5 on a 10 team parlay that will pay out $250K. Only game left that you need is the Bucks to win @MIA. You aren't going to hedge on that?

nope....if it loses i lose $5, I can handle losing $5

ETA: I'd never make a wager like this in the first place

So you'd pass up a chance to profit $100K+ because you'd "only lose $5"? What about all the potential profit you lose by not betting it?

Forgetting the ridiculousness of this scenario

1. Where would I wager 100k on anything? I guess if it was a MNF game I'd have 1 option available to me that would accept a 100k wager(bookmaker.eu)

2. I don't keep 100k in my bookmaker.eu account and it's not easy to move that kind of money

3. 250k isn't life changing for me....bump it to a million in this fantasy scenario and i'd probably try to lock in 500k

4. sweating a game where i could win 250k would be quite exciting

EXACTLY. That was the point of my post above. For you, there eventually came a point where the money actually mattered and you said "screw EV, I'll lock in the 500k".

Well, you state that 250k isn't life changing money. If you've made enough money for that to be the case, you have to have some amount of intelligence. And hopefully with that intelligence you realize that it certainly is for some. So, if that lower level matters to someone more than you, then it's no less correct for them to hedge at that level than it is for you to hedge at $1M. Trump would laugh at your hedge, but that amount of money actually matters to you. So who are you or anyone else to determine at what point the money for this singular event matters more than the EV?

And if the above isn't true, then why would you "probably try to lock at 500k"? Did the EV change at that point? See what's trying to be said here?

 

[ghostguy123]

EXACTLY. That was the point of my post above. For you, there eventually came a point where the money actually mattered and you said "screw EV, I'll lock in the 500k".

Well, you state that 250k isn't life changing money. If you've made enough money for that to be the case, you have to have some amount of intelligence. And hopefully with that intelligence you realize that it certainly is for some. So, if that lower level matters to someone more than you, then it's no less correct for them to hedge at that level than it is for you to hedge at $1M. Trump would laugh at your hedge, but that amount of money actually matters to you. So who are you or anyone else to determine at what point the money for this singular event matters more than the EV?

And if the above isn't true, then why would you "probably try to lock at 500k"? Did the EV change at that point? See what's trying to be said here?

That, and Cyclones hedge last night wasn't -EV unless you go strictly by the vegas line...........which does NOT represent the actual probability of the event to occur.................I am going to put that in my sig eventually.

 

[ghostguy123]

That and if I had so much money where 250k wasn't "life changing" I would probably be out doing something more entertaining than spewing about in the free for all section about some couple thousand dollar hedge.

Hell, if I could get my Xbox 360 online to work I probably wouldnt bother here...............

This place is great though. Where else can I get such sound gambling advice from the EV honks telling me how my 15 year run of consistent winnings has somehow been done INCORRECTLY.................

25-30 grand, shoot, if I was more EV conscious it might have been 100 grand.

 

[QuizGuy66]

As an Illini fan who will burn $5 on them winning the BCS National Championship if I get to Vega$ before then I assure you that if they make it to that title game I surely will hedge so I end up with +$ in my bank account at the end of the situation rather than riding the 10000/1 odds or whatever

But according to EV theory I am breaking my budget with that $5 wager on my alma mater.

-QG

No, it's just a stupid bet. But people waste their money on dumb stuff all of the time.

When you do hedge, it will be less dumb than this bet.

-QG

 

[gmbacm]

That and if I had so much money where 250k wasn't "life changing" I would probably be out doing something more entertaining than spewing about in the free for all section about some couple thousand dollar hedge.

Hell, if I could get my Xbox 360 online to work I probably wouldnt bother here...............

This place is great though. Where else can I get such sound gambling advice from the EV honks telling me how my 15 year run of consistent winnings has somehow been done INCORRECTLY.................

25-30 grand, shoot, if I was more EV conscious it might have been 100 grand.

Cylcones - this poor guys has a broken xbox and too much time on his hands. After the big score the least you can do is shoot him $20 to get his xbox fixed after all the defending he is doing for you.

ghostguy123 163 DrJ 82 Cyclones 49 Aaron Rudnicki 22 Jalapanose 21 tjnc09 20 Good Posting Judge 19 [icon] 18

 

[parasaurolophus]

The only time you should ever "hedge" a wager is if you overbet.

You put $5 on a 10 team parlay that will pay out $250K. Only game left that you need is the Bucks to win @MIA. You aren't going to hedge on that?

Why did you place such a high variance bet if you're looking to sacrifice equity as soon as part of it hits?

I understand what you guys are saying here. If the payout is so necessary to bank prematurely, then you bet too big. This isn't 100% though. It is possible to make a bet like the OP that is not outside your bankroll.If you have a 5k bankroll and come across a 40-1 futures bet that you think has a 10% chance of hitting, 200 bucks is not too big of a bet. Futures opportunities like this are finite. It could literally never happen again. If you get to where you are in the championship game you are basically making what equates to a 4k bet. That is too big of a bet now to make with a 5k bankroll (especially if you think the game is nothing more than a coinflip).

It absolutely is too big of a bet. You're wagering 4% of your bankroll on a really long shot. As a rough guideline, you shouldn't even be sitting down at a poker table that you believe you have the edge at with more than 5% or so of your bankroll. You sit down with 20% of your money and it isn't going to take too many random 2 outers before all of your money is gone.

4% is less that 5%. 20% has never been in play. Is this the point in the thread where we make stuff up?

 

[ghostguy123]

May as well. We make up probabilities to make our arguments look better.

Hedge-O-matic

 

[Jalapanose]

Did you get paid, Cy?

 

[Cyclones]

Yep, got paid on Sunday.

 

[Spin]

Yep, got paid on Sunday.