Get 'Em When They Are Down (1 Viewer)

[Bob_Magaw]

the subject came up in the vilma thread of some IDP trades one of our teams has made in past few seasons...

i had in mind players like julius peppers & roy williams...

they had come off disappointing seasons (in some cases multiple ones)... peppers was gotten for a second & sixth...

roy involved a trade of bryan scott & swapping second rounders (we gave up higher)...

this thread partly overlaps with threads along the lines of buy low... the variant here is to target not just any player that is a buy low candidate (average, good, great)... but specifically go after superstars that are down for some reason or another one (identifiable ones are the best )...

in case of roy williams, his stats were impoverished for scheme-related reasons... he played a FS-type role with CB problems before 2005... with addition of CB anthony henry & terence newman playing with more confidence, he was freed up to return to playmaking SS role he does best & that parcells had vowed he would be returned to...

in peppers case he didn't develope as fast as some had hoped...

in dynasty/IDP leagues , there is always a variable distribution of scouting acumen & patience... sometimes smart guys that drafted a a guy in first place & correctly assigned value give up or undervalue a little sooner...

it helps to have trust in your scouting instincts to have confidence you have correctly identified talent & value & they are poised on cusp & threshold of a breakthrough...

another thing that prompted this post was more intended as interactive than didactic...

who ya got for those type of dudes for 2006 that similarly fit profile outlined above?

i think charles grant & ed reed fall into this category... grant especially parallels peppers here in that he is probably elite talent that may have fallen in estimation of some (bonus is howard moves on)... at least he is guaranteed cheaper this off-season than last... some dynasty players have short memories...

they may not be cheap... but fit theme of targeting monster players that won't be as expensive as they should be (can be gotten for second rounder, which wouldn't yield as stud of a corresponding rookie, which is also more risk as unproven)... smart owners will jump on that opportunity when it presents itself...

reed is probably not as cheap as williams was before 2005 after several mediocre seasons... but he could fit profile...

 

[Imedos]

Perhaps these:

DJ Williams

Kenechi Udeze

sean jones

kevin williams

gilbert gardner maybe?

edgerton hartwell?

 

[Bob_Magaw]

nice ones, imedos...

i would triage them for purposes of illustrating point...

kevin williams & DJ williams... absolutely (call it first tier of your examples)...

vexing thing with williams fall was that it was inexplicable... but two seasons as best looking young DT for IDP purposes in the league makes him compelling, despite falling off cliff in 2005...

at least ed reed & grant were probably for injury reasons (like michael clayton as offensive parallel)...

DJ is classic scheme-related drop in stats... what scares the bejeezus out of me is situation may remain unchanged for a few years... ian gold may not be going anywhere soon... but if you can maybe wait 2-3+ years, i concur with bloom he is elite, blue chip talent (only player madden ever said could have turned pro directly from high school - if it was legal )...

hartwell is interesting case (call it middle tier) where he had one very good year... he was expected to be a stud as MLB in ATL rather than getting sloppy seconds as 3-4 ILB to voracious ray lewis... & he may be cheaper coming off achilles... i don't have explanation why he got off to such awful start BEFORE he was injured... anybody?

i'd sort udeze, jones & gardner (third tier) by draft slot & pedigree...

udeze might be a stellar talent... looked like one at USC, but doesn't fit grant & reed profile (as well as williams bros) in that he hasn't really done it at pro level, so riskier... he is down for two serious injuries in consecutive seasons...

jones i worry about, but they did get rid of crocker & brian russell is marginal, journeyman type... could make exciting safety tandem with brodney pool, who i like better even if he plays FS.

gardner has been banged up a lot, & may not slot into good situation as colts SLB...

there are lots of ways to win, & many principles of how to get better through trade, draft, WW...

i just parsed your examples by how i see them fitting the subject of current thread, to varying degrees, so we can maybe examine better & worse strategies, examples, how to arrive at good mix, etc...

 

[-OZ-]

Bob, As I'm sure you've seen by my recent trades in one of our leagues, there's a couple guys I think fit this

Madieu Williams - beast as a rookie, injured last year

EJ Henderson - although we aren't sure where he'll play, if he plays the Will, in the tampa 2, he should do well. I liked him coming out of college, has been solid but unspectacular

Ray Lewis - (although I traded him) He's still Ray, age is a concern

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Peppers and Kevin Williams are definitely at the top of my list. Kevin Williams + cover 2 = good things. Peppers will get there eventually, we can all see it.

Charles Grant and Darren Howard should bounce back this year.

DJ Williams is probably tough to pry from his owner, but he will be an elite IDP LB again, count on it.

Madieu Williams is a player who works in theory, but when I try to trade for him, its clear his owners havent really dropped his value. In general its easier to get bargains with all of these guys in initial drafts than in trades.

Reed, i think is still overrated. He's stuck in centerfield and won't get many tackles.

Roy Williams could have an uptick, but I think he's still firmly in most top 5s at DB.

Sean Taylor could be a good one to get while these legal troubles hang over him.

Donovan Darius should be a viable safety by the 2nd half of the year and back to form in 07.

Eric Barton should have very good numbers if his arm injury is back to 100%

Reggie Hayward was a beast in Denver - he's coming off a disappointing year.

Bert Berry may be a little cheaper because his season was cut short by injury.

I dont particularly like Henderson in Minnesota on the weakside - maybe in the middle? I think the WLB will come from the draft - Sims or Greenway.

A few good fliers:

Boss Bailey and Teddy Lehman - the big stats are there for the taking if they can stay healthy

Andre Carter - Could see time on all three downs as a WLB/pass rush specialist

 

[-OZ-]

Madieu Williams is a player who works in theory, but when I try to trade for him, its clear his owners havent really dropped his value. In general its easier to get bargains with all of these guys in initial drafts than in trades.

I dont particularly like Henderson in Minnesota on the weakside - maybe in the middle? I think the WLB will come from the draft - Sims or Greenway.

What is it that you don't like about EJ on the weakside? Maybe I'm missing something, but while I won't call him the ideal fit, he seems a good fit.Madieu, well maybe not "cheap", but cheaper than he will be in the future IMO.

I acquired him and K-Rob for Woods, Rogers and Thomas Davis, the offer was a counter for an offer I sent just involving the WRs. So I assume his value is at least a fair bit below Davis's, while I see them as equal. TD has gotten much more pub lately.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Madieu Williams is a player who works in theory, but when I try to trade for him, its clear his owners havent really dropped his value. In general its easier to get bargains with all of these guys in initial drafts than in trades.

I dont particularly like Henderson in Minnesota on the weakside - maybe in the middle? I think the WLB will come from the draft - Sims or Greenway.

What is it that you don't like about EJ on the weakside? Maybe I'm missing something, but while I won't call him the ideal fit, he seems a good fit.

EJ is just not the kind of explosive pass rusher and pursuit LB you want in the WLB slot. Im not saying he won't get it by default if they dont go with a first day LB (which would be nuts imo), but he's far from ideal for the position.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Some thoughts on guys mentioned above...

Kevin Williams - Agree. Should do very well this season if Pat Williams holds up. Little leery of all the reports of his possibly out of control weight gain though.

Charles Grant - I'm way high on Grant for 2006. He really didn't see much decrease in his overall tackle numbers if you take into account the 10+ sacks he didn't get. There's not much reason to think that the toe injury didn't hamper his first explosive burst. With Howard gone (assuming Super Mario doesn't land here), there'll be no rotation, and teams will have to respect Will Smith on the other side keeping the double team off Grant for the most part.

Ed Hartwell - Hartwell's problem is the same as Trotter's - two down player. It's possible that he could make every tackle on running downs like Trotter does. But Hartwell has Brooking, Kerney and now Abraham to help out in the front seven. Who has Trotter had?

EJ Henderson - I'm with Bloom. I don't like Henderson in the Tampa-2 particularly. He's too big and too slow and not good enough in coverage for this system. That said, if he starts, he'll be in a great position to produce in the boxscore.

Players not yet mentioned...

Tony Hargrove - Guy has shown two way capability in recent seasons. Really in the doghouse with the former coaching staff. If he can establish himself he could really do well this year opposite Little. And he's in a contract year.

Sam Cowart - Seems like he's in a good position every season and then fizzles. Still worth a flyer, especially if the Texans don't bring anybody decent in during the draft.

Nate Clements, Antoine Winfield - Two guys who've already proven to be consistent in run support. With their teams moving to the Tampa-2, both could do what Charles Tillman has done and jump from the borderline DB1-DB2 to top shelf IDP talent.

ED: Erasmus James warrants mentioning as well. I like Udeze, but am tempering expectations until he proves he's fully recovered from microfracture surgery.

 

[WhoDat]

They're still young but I really like E. James, Tuck at DE; B. Pool and Bullocks at S and B. Ruud at LB. Since this is an exercise in buy low I imagine you could probably get a couple of these guys on the cheap from a frustrated, immediate satisfaction and can never delay gratification type owner. We all know these types of owners.

I really like Roy Williams this year. Pokes just picked up a FS yesterday and that defense could be scary good. There is enough talent in front of and, perhaps, behind Williams now that he can be utilized in a capacity better suited to his skills. Williams being reduced to policing the secondary is not making use of all of his talents. There is enough beef in front of him now that Williams might get to roam and do a little more. I'd like to think the Cowboys could begin to use him a little more like the Steelers and Lebeau use Troy P. That is not suggesting Williams is anywhere near the physical talent Polamalu is but you get the idea.

Reed...on the fence with that guy. The Ravens are really at a crossroads and Reed might be someone I might consider selling for the right price. Without Lewis being Lewis that defense changes dramatically. It would be hard to part with Reed but, if you could get a cherry draft pick, which means a pick that could easily land a blue chip defensive player, and another veteran player, I would consider it.

Sean Taylor...thug but a LB playing SS. He's only going to get better but not someone I track down. I fall into the camp his behavior will put him into a situation that sees him in trouble, suspeneded and out of the league.

 

[houndirish]

Couple of the guys I was going to mention already got cited here. I actually traded one for another (Darren Howard for Madeiu Williams)

 

[Keg]

Thomas Davis

j/k but you might be able to add him to this list next yr if he doesnt start at WLB

 

[-OZ-]

Madieu Williams is a player who works in theory, but when I try to trade for him, its clear his owners havent really dropped his value. In general its easier to get bargains with all of these guys in initial drafts than in trades.

I dont particularly like Henderson in Minnesota on the weakside - maybe in the middle? I think the WLB will come from the draft - Sims or Greenway.

What is it that you don't like about EJ on the weakside? Maybe I'm missing something, but while I won't call him the ideal fit, he seems a good fit.

EJ is just not the kind of explosive pass rusher and pursuit LB you want in the WLB slot. Im not saying he won't get it by default if they dont go with a first day LB (which would be nuts imo), but he's far from ideal for the position.

Somehow I always think he's quicker than he is. Oh well, he'd be an ideal MLB there. I LOVE the Hargrove pick, although rumors were circulting awhile back that he may move to OLB, as the Rams use the 3-4 more. Is there anything to that? I wouldn't think it would be a good fit for their personel, Little isn't an ideal 3-4 DE IMO. Hybrid possibilities, I suppose.

Sean Taylor is interesting, but difficult to judge. On one hand, his potential is HUGE. OTOH, the risk is HUGE. His owners will probably see the upside and demand a lot.

I've tried to acquire Erasmus James, to no avail.

Is Cincy going to the 3-4? Brian Simmons might be a decent sleeper there. Also, does this hurt Thurman as much or more than people think the same move will hurt Vilma?

 

[Keg]

Aaron Schobel isnt a guy that has under performed but one that seems to be under appreciated

 

[Jene Bramel]

Somehow I always think he's quicker than he is. Oh well, he'd be an ideal MLB there.

I LOVE the Hargrove pick, although rumors were circulting awhile back that he may move to OLB, as the Rams use the 3-4 more. Is there anything to that? I wouldn't think it would be a good fit for their personel, Little isn't an ideal 3-4 DE IMO. Hybrid possibilities, I suppose.

Sean Taylor is interesting, but difficult to judge. On one hand, his potential is HUGE. OTOH, the risk is HUGE. His owners will probably see the upside and demand a lot.

I've tried to acquire Erasmus James, to no avail.

Is Cincy going to the 3-4? Brian Simmons might be a decent sleeper there. Also, does this hurt Thurman as much or more than people think the same move will hurt Vilma?

Along with a number of other teams whose coaches have 3-4 histories in their past, we'll have to watch this draft closely and match personnel to possible future schemes. Haslett comes from the LeBeau/Steeler school of the 3-4, which is a traditional 2 gap scheme, rather than the hybrids that the Belichick tree likes to run. He didn't make a move to the 3-4 in New Orleans in any of the years he was there and has been quoted that you scheme with your current personnel in mind. Last note I saw was that he'll consider the 3-4, but has no plans to install it in bunches for now. The Rams front seven personnel is not tailored to a 3-4. LB and DE too small.You've probably seen all the Bengal 3-4 discussion already. If you missed the fun - here you go. Until I'm shown otherwise, I believe the Bengal personnel is better suited to the 4-3.

With all the coaching changes and the trends toward the Tampa-2 and 3-4 hybrid schemes this offseason, the middle rounds of this draft will be very interesting for hardcore IDPers and fans of these teams to watch. I know I'm looking forward to this draft more than in any in recent memory.

 

[-OZ-]

Somehow I always think he's quicker than he is. Oh well, he'd be an ideal MLB there.

I LOVE the Hargrove pick, although rumors were circulting awhile back that he may move to OLB, as the Rams use the 3-4 more. Is there anything to that? I wouldn't think it would be a good fit for their personel, Little isn't an ideal 3-4 DE IMO. Hybrid possibilities, I suppose.

Sean Taylor is interesting, but difficult to judge. On one hand, his potential is HUGE. OTOH, the risk is HUGE. His owners will probably see the upside and demand a lot.

I've tried to acquire Erasmus James, to no avail.

Is Cincy going to the 3-4? Brian Simmons might be a decent sleeper there. Also, does this hurt Thurman as much or more than people think the same move will hurt Vilma?

Along with a number of other teams whose coaches have 3-4 histories in their past, we'll have to watch this draft closely and match personnel to possible future schemes. Haslett comes from the LeBeau/Steeler school of the 3-4, which is a traditional 2 gap scheme, rather than the hybrids that the Belichick tree likes to run. He didn't make a move to the 3-4 in New Orleans in any of the years he was there and has been quoted that you scheme with your current personnel in mind. Last note I saw was that he'll consider the 3-4, but has no plans to install it in bunches for now. The Rams front seven personnel is not tailored to a 3-4. LB and DE too small.You've probably seen all the Bengal 3-4 discussion already. If you missed the fun - here you go. Until I'm shown otherwise, I believe the Bengal personnel is better suited to the 4-3.

With all the coaching changes and the trends toward the Tampa-2 and 3-4 hybrid schemes this offseason, the middle rounds of this draft will be very interesting for hardcore IDPers and fans of these teams to watch. I know I'm looking forward to this draft more than in any in recent memory.

Good stuff Jene, thanks. I agree that their current personel are better suited to the 4-3, which, along with the 3-4 talk, might just make Justin Smith and Pollack/Geathers good values.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Takeo Spikes - Achilles injury may scare current owners, but being a WLB in Cover-2 should scare non-owners of Spikes

Daryl Smith - Undisputed WLB for the Jags. Plays behind the wide bodies of Stroud and Henderson. He should get Peterson's leftovers.

Justin Miller - If you league awards pts for return yards, Miller will be a double-threat in '06.

Chaun Thompson / Matt Stewart - Throw a dart...one of these guys may be playing beside Andra Davis as an ILB in '05.

Brodney Pool - Get this guy now!

Jason Babin - He's moving back to his natural position of DE. I do think he will unseat Antwan Peek and start opposite Anthony Weaver.

Travis LaBoy - This guy is always injured but he produces when he plays. Vanden Bosh's shoulder surgery could increase LaBoy's time in the rotation along with Odom.

Chris Hope - Moving from a FS in the Steelers stout D to a SS in the Titans porous D. Nice fantasy transition.

DJ Williams - For the life of me, how is this guy holding his helmet on passing downs?!?! At the very least, the Broncos should use him as a pass-rushing DE over Lang/Engleberger. Get this guy on the field!!!

Darrent Williams - A full year to 1) play opposite Champ and 2) return kicks. Deadly combo in an applicable league.

Darren Howard - The Eagles did not give this guy a phat contract to ride a stationary bike on the sidelines. He's been very productive when on the field.

Matt McCoy - Last year's 2nd-round only has Shawn Barber standing in his way...for at least another week, that is.

Andre Carter - Ladies and gents, here's your most improved defensive player for '06. Congrats Andre...you deserve it!

Carlos Rogers - He's essentially a rookie again this year, and teams will be avoiding Springs on the other side.

Dre Bly - The Lions Cover-2 should really boost his stats. Bly was always productive as a CB and this shouldn't hurt. Fernando Bryant could also see an uptick but he's not as aggressive as Bly.

Lavar Arrington - Make no bones about...Arrington will sign SOMEWHERE. A landing in GB or NYG would be optimal. A signing in CIN or MIA would damper his already low value.

Anthony Simmons - I like his chances of breaking into the starting lineup for the Saints. If he can land the WLB job, he should be a serviceable starter for many fantasy teams. If Simmons plays SLB, look at Fuita instead.

DeWayne White - I like his chances of pushing Greg Spires inside and starting opposite Rice. This guy was considered a blue-chip prospect many moons ago.

 

[Sidewinder16]

Sean Taylor...thug but a LB playing SS. He's only going to get better but not someone I track down. I fall into the camp his behavior will put him into a situation that sees him in trouble, suspeneded and out of the league.

Actually, he's more like a LB playing FS like a SS. It's gonna be fun watching him and Archuleta this year. :fingerscrossed:

 

[-OZ-]

Takeo Spikes - Achilles injury may scare current owners, but being a WLB in Cover-2 should scare non-owners of Spikes

I almost listed him as well, but there was talk that Crowell might be the will. If you can get both, secure the spot. Or is it officially Spikes job?

Dre Bly - The Lions Cover-2 should really boost his stats. Bly was always productive as a CB and this shouldn't hurt. Fernando Bryant could also see an uptick but he's not as aggressive as Bly.

I like!

 

[Jene Bramel]

Some good stuff flying today folks.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Takeo Spikes - Achilles injury may scare current owners, but being a WLB in Cover-2 should scare non-owners of Spikes

I almost listed him as well, but there was talk that Crowell might be the will. If you can get both, secure the spot. Or is it officially Spikes job?

Dre Bly - The Lions Cover-2 should really boost his stats.  Bly was always productive as a CB and this shouldn't hurt.  Fernando Bryant could also see an uptick but he's not as aggressive as Bly.

I like!

The Crowell talk was that, though small, he might fit on the strong side of the Tampa-2. Spikes will play the WLB.And it can't be emphasized enough - get the corners in Min, Det, and Buf who've already proven they're willing run stuffers.

That means Clements, McGee, Bly, and Winfield. And keep your eyes peeled for others.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

DeWayne White - I like his chances of pushing Greg Spires inside and starting opposite Rice. This guy was considered a blue-chip prospect many moons ago.

Already waiting on DJ Williams and Arrington from this list, but I'm happy to hear that someone else thinks that White can make the jump to being a productive IDP player.

 

[Beaumont]

Nnamdi Asomugha ... logging a lot of time in the Raider backfield = pure gold baby ...

 

[-OZ-]

The Crowell talk was that, though small, he might fit on the strong side of the Tampa-2. Spikes will play the WLB.

Ok, as I read it, there was talk that Spikes would move to SLB with Crowell at WLB. Maybe the question was whether they'd sign someone else, and people inferred wrong.

 

[Warpig]

If ya look at my signature I took a chance (good value) on alot of the guys you have mentioned in this topic. Most of the guys are fairly young so I figured they would be worth the pick up.

Laboy had 6 or 7 sacks last year even though he was being rotated a fair amount.

I had DJ Williams but had to trade him away due to salary issues. But I've heard so much positive about him and figured his low numbers were due to the scheme. I was hoping he'd get moved around or traded.

I'm hoping Hartwell picks up where he left off in Baltimore...and then some. I got him pretty cheap as well. I think that Atlanta defense will be a force to be reckoned with this year.

I do have a question about Domonique Foxworth. He actually played in more games than Darrent last year, had better numbers, and is bigger but most people on this board are sold on Darrent being the starter. What is the word on this? The site I used for depth chart is actually one I got from this board that was highly recommended...well maintained.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Nnamdi Asomugha ... logging a lot of time in the Raider backfield = pure gold baby ...

Got some inside information for us? What makes you think he'll be more valuable this season?

To my eyes, he's never been a big play guy (zero picks in three seasons) and despite good size hasn't been overly impressive in run support. Or has he and his tackle numbers just not show it?

I've heard rumblings about him moving to safety for a couple of seasons now. He's not SS material and hasn't been played at safety over Schweigert in two seasons. The Raiders went to Renaldo Hill as their near the box run stopping DB in their bizarro nickel schemes last season. And the Raiders don't have a bunch of corners just lying around either. So it looks like he stays a corner to me.

I don't mean to knock the idea. I just want to better understand the pure gold comment.

 

[Jene Bramel]

The Crowell talk was that, though small, he might fit on the strong side of the Tampa-2.  Spikes will play the WLB.

Ok, as I read it, there was talk that Spikes would move to SLB with Crowell at WLB. Maybe the question was whether they'd sign someone else, and people inferred wrong.

I think Aaron has suggested it could go either way but was just speculating. He's usually around later in the evening and might be able to clear it up a little more for us.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

And it can't be emphasized enough - get the corners in Min, Det, and Buf who've already proven they're willing run stuffers.

That means Clements, McGee, Bly, and Winfield. And keep your eyes peeled for others.

Yes and no. Winfield is already a top run stuffer and one of the leading tacklers at CB, year in, year out. Its hard to see him improving. Bly is small and can get swallowed up in run support. It would also be a waste to only have him cover the zone 10-15 yards from the LoS because he's one of the best blanket corners in man to man. His value is going up as he'll be in position to make more tackles, but I don't know if its the best fit for him. Bryant and Smoot go from afterthoughts to much more interesting options at CB, I'll give you that. Clements and McGee are already top CBs for IDP leagues and won't come cheap.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

The Crowell talk was that, though small, he might fit on the strong side of the Tampa-2. Spikes will play the WLB.

And it can't be emphasized enough - get the corners in Min, Det, and Buf who've already proven they're willing run stuffers.

What are your thoughts on the value of the safeties in the cover 2? It tends to sap them of IDP value. Im specifically thinking of guys like Kenoy Kennedy, Darren Sharper, Tank Williams...

 

[Beaumont]

Nnamdi Asomugha ... logging a lot of time in the Raider backfield = pure gold baby ...

Got some inside information for us? What makes you think he'll be more valuable this season?

To my eyes, he's never been a big play guy (zero picks in three seasons) and despite good size hasn't been overly impressive in run support. Or has he and his tackle numbers just not show it?

I've heard rumblings about him moving to safety for a couple of seasons now. He's not SS material and hasn't been played at safety over Schweigert in two seasons. The Raiders went to Renaldo Hill as their near the box run stopping DB in their bizarro nickel schemes last season. And the Raiders don't have a bunch of corners just lying around either. So it looks like he stays a corner to me.

I don't mean to knock the idea. I just want to better understand the pure gold comment.

In my league he was DB #72 while seeing some bench time ... I think with Woodson gone and their safety position in disarray Asomugha will almost never see the bench ...You cant go wrong with a DB on the field as much as Asomugha will be, especially considering what a sorry pass D the Raiders will have ... I also think he is a better tackler than generally thought ...

And he is typically undrafted, even in 40 man roster leagues ... note that Cracker agrees to an extent, having him at Dynasty DB #55 over Bly ...

 

[Jene Bramel]

The Crowell talk was that, though small, he might fit on the strong side of the Tampa-2.  Spikes will play the WLB.

And it can't be emphasized enough - get the corners in Min, Det, and Buf who've already proven they're willing run stuffers. 

What are your thoughts on the value of the safeties in the cover 2? It tends to sap them of IDP value. Im specifically thinking of guys like Kenoy Kennedy, Darren Sharper, Tank Williams...

I don't disagree that Clements, McGee, and Winfield may be tough to get. But it's been so long that the old "corners are bad fantasy options" adage has been out there that it warrants mentioning. All three of these guys were able to be had in recent seasons on waiver wires in my leagues. These are leagues with some FBG staff in them. So you just never know. I think the underlying theme of looking at the corners who support the run is the important thing. I'll be trying to get Clements and Winfield in every league I don't already own them when things pick back up. I'll let you know what the price may be.With regard to the safeties...

I posted about this in the Sharper thread. The Tampa-2 really should depress the fantasy value of a safety. John Lynch was always the poster boy for that. But Aaron brought up the Bear safeties in that thread and I was all ready to play devil's advocate and point to big plays, speedy FS coverage skills as the determining factor, yada, yada, yada. But I couldn't make a persuasive argument. Especially with the tackle numbers that the Bear secondary put up last year behind two tackle hoovers in Urlacher and Briggs.

I'm still leaning toward saying that safeties are devalued unless they have excellent big play/cover skills (Sharper). Guys that are big and stiff and primarily skilled in the box in run support shouldn't see the tackles numbers they need to reach the upper ranks of most scoring systems. So I'd downgrade Kennedy and Williams. Neither were ever big time stud options anyway.

But I'm really interested to see what the trend looks like after the first month of the season for the Williams, Kennedy, Bowen types. My guess is that their stat lines aren't impressive and the Bear safeties come down some. But my mind is open.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Nnamdi Asomugha ... logging a lot of time in the Raider backfield = pure gold baby ...

Got some inside information for us? What makes you think he'll be more valuable this season?

To my eyes, he's never been a big play guy (zero picks in three seasons) and despite good size hasn't been overly impressive in run support. Or has he and his tackle numbers just not show it?

I've heard rumblings about him moving to safety for a couple of seasons now. He's not SS material and hasn't been played at safety over Schweigert in two seasons. The Raiders went to Renaldo Hill as their near the box run stopping DB in their bizarro nickel schemes last season. And the Raiders don't have a bunch of corners just lying around either. So it looks like he stays a corner to me.

I don't mean to knock the idea. I just want to better understand the pure gold comment.

In my league he was DB #72 while seeing some bench time ... I think with Woodson gone and their safety position in disarray Asomugha will almost never see the bench ...You cant go wrong with a DB on the field as much as Asomugha will be, especially considering what a sorry pass D the Raiders will have ... I also think he is a better tackler than generally thought ...

And he is typically undrafted, even in 40 man roster leagues ... note that Cracker agrees to an extent, having him at Dynasty DB #55 over Bly ...

Cool, thanks. I'll put him on the long list of guys to pay attention to in minicamps and preseason to see where he lines up.

 

[msommer]

The Crowell talk was that, though small, he might fit on the strong side of the Tampa-2.  Spikes will play the WLB.

Ok, as I read it, there was talk that Spikes would move to SLB with Crowell at WLB. Maybe the question was whether they'd sign someone else, and people inferred wrong.

I think Aaron has suggested it could go either way but was just speculating. He's usually around later in the evening and might be able to clear it up a little more for us.

IIRC the Crowell talk came out of 'how are we going to get the three best linebackers on the field if Spikes comes all the way back'. Aaron can put us straight.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I thought there was a good chance all along that Crowell would take over the starting SLB job from Posey this year. But, I speculated that if Spikes was slow to come back from his injury, they might consider moving him to SLB and keeping Crowell at WLB. Crowell lacks great size or strength, but he's quick and athletic. Just like Ian Gold played SLB for Tampa in 2004, Crowell could play the position for Buffalo in their new "Tampa 2" system.

He's clearly one of the Bills best 3 linebackers so they'd be wise to try and find a way to get him on the field. But, when healthy, Spikes is a real difference maker so moving him to SLB might hurt his value. It will be a tradeoff no matter which way they decide to go, and I think it's tough to know exactly what to expect at this point.

There was a report in the Buffalo News where they mentioned that Crowell would be fine as the SLB in the new system...so, that's a sign that the Bills would probably try that option before considering moving Spikes over. Haven't really heard anything else that could be considered official though.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

What are your thoughts on the value of the safeties in the cover 2? It tends to sap them of IDP value. Im specifically thinking of guys like Kenoy Kennedy, Darren Sharper, Tank Williams...

Mike Brown, Michael Green, Adam Archuleta and even Bob Sanders to a lesser extent seem to be exceptions to this rule. I guess this means that the SS can still be pretty valuable but the FS is pretty useless.

 

[redman]

Andre Carter - Could see time on all three downs as a WLB/pass rush specialist

I like this pick too. The 'Skins line does everything but rush well without Carter. With Cornelius Griffin to account for at DT, I could see Carter having a very good year.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Andre Carter - Could see time on all three downs as a WLB/pass rush specialist

I like this pick too. The 'Skins line does everything but rush well without Carter. With Cornelius Griffin to account for at DT, I could see Carter having a very good year.

is he going to play LB or DE? I just don't see him as a WLB in Gregg Williams' defense, but could definitely see him making an impact as a RDE.

 

[Beaumont]

Andre Carter - Could see time on all three downs as a WLB/pass rush specialist

I like this pick too. The 'Skins line does everything but rush well without Carter. With Cornelius Griffin to account for at DT, I could see Carter having a very good year.

is he going to play LB or DE? I just don't see him as a WLB in Gregg Williams' defense, but could definitely see him making an impact as a RDE.

Chris Clemens or Warrick Holdman are the WLB ... Carter will be a DE ...Edited to add as they discuss it on Extremeskins ...

 

[Rozelle]

What are your thoughts on the value of the safeties in the cover 2? It tends to sap them of IDP value. Im specifically thinking of guys like Kenoy Kennedy, Darren Sharper, Tank Williams...

Mike Brown, Michael Green, Adam Archuleta and even Bob Sanders to a lesser extent seem to be exceptions to this rule. I guess this means that the SS can still be pretty valuable but the FS is pretty useless.

Sanders played FS last year. I understand Indy likes their saftey's to be interchangable, so maybe in their scheme the saftey's flip flop during the course of the game.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

What are your thoughts on the value of the safeties in the cover 2? It tends to sap them of IDP value. Im specifically thinking of guys like Kenoy Kennedy, Darren Sharper, Tank Williams...

Mike Brown, Michael Green, Adam Archuleta and even Bob Sanders to a lesser extent seem to be exceptions to this rule. I guess this means that the SS can still be pretty valuable but the FS is pretty useless.

Sanders played FS last year. I understand Indy likes their saftey's to be interchangable, so maybe in their scheme the saftey's flip flop during the course of the game.

OK. I thought he played some at SS, but am not sure. I thought they even started the year with Sanders at SS and Joseph Jefferson at FS. Either way, the Bears SS the past 2 years has been a top fantasy performer and I think Archuleta did pretty well under Lovie Smith.

 

[Rozelle]

What are your thoughts on the value of the safeties in the cover 2? It tends to sap them of IDP value. Im specifically thinking of guys like Kenoy Kennedy, Darren Sharper, Tank Williams...

Mike Brown, Michael Green, Adam Archuleta and even Bob Sanders to a lesser extent seem to be exceptions to this rule. I guess this means that the SS can still be pretty valuable but the FS is pretty useless.

Sanders played FS last year. I understand Indy likes their saftey's to be interchangable, so maybe in their scheme the saftey's flip flop during the course of the game.

OK. I thought he played some at SS, but am not sure. I thought they even started the year with Sanders at SS and Joseph Jefferson at FS. Either way, the Bears SS the past 2 years has been a top fantasy performer and I think Archuleta did pretty well under Lovie Smith.

Nah...he was FS all year. Hoping Jackson is converted to FS this year, big bummer for all Jackson owners...obvoiusly I'm not one of 'em Despite cover 2, I'm still partial to SS over corners in dynasty format. More stability in the long run.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Nah...he was FS all year.

even in week 1 when Doss was suspended?anyway, ignore my original comment. Sanders put up good numbers from the FS position in Indy last year.

 

[Birdie048]

I thought there was a good chance all along that Crowell would take over the starting SLB job from Posey this year. But, I speculated that if Spikes was slow to come back from his injury, they might consider moving him to SLB and keeping Crowell at WLB. Crowell lacks great size or strength, but he's quick and athletic. Just like Ian Gold played SLB for Tampa in 2004, Crowell could play the position for Buffalo in their new "Tampa 2" system.

He's clearly one of the Bills best 3 linebackers so they'd be wise to try and find a way to get him on the field. But, when healthy, Spikes is a real difference maker so moving him to SLB might hurt his value. It will be a tradeoff no matter which way they decide to go, and I think it's tough to know exactly what to expect at this point.

There was a report in the Buffalo News where they mentioned that Crowell would be fine as the SLB in the new system...so, that's a sign that the Bills would probably try that option before considering moving Spikes over. Haven't really heard anything else that could be considered official though.

Reports on the Bills Msg boards are that Spikes is expected to be fully recovered .... he was interviewed last month .... he was quoted saying he was "stronger, faster & better" ....I read that as Crowell will be SLB.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Reports on the Bills Msg boards are that Spikes is expected to be fully recovered .... he was interviewed last month .... he was quoted saying he was "stronger, faster & better" ....

I read that as Crowell will be SLB.

reports are almost always positive this time of year. hope that's accurate though. and I agree, Crowell at SLB seems most likely.

 

[Pick]

TEN CB Renaldo Hill played very well in limited duty with the Raiders last year. He's not big but he plays very aggressive against the run. Played a few different positions if I remember correctly. Not sure what spot he'll play for the Titans but I think he'll find a way to put up the tackle numbers again.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

TEN CB Renaldo Hill played very well in limited duty with the Raiders last year. He's not big but he plays very aggressive against the run. Played a few different positions if I remember correctly. Not sure what spot he'll play for the Titans but I think he'll find a way to put up the tackle numbers again.

didn't he sign with the Dolphins? anyway, I agree he could be a very nice sleeper this year. I have him as my #39 ranked DB in the dynasty rankings.

 

[Pick]

TEN CB Renaldo Hill played very well in limited duty with the Raiders last year. He's not big but he plays very aggressive against the run. Played a few different positions if I remember correctly. Not sure what spot he'll play for the Titans but I think he'll find a way to put up the tackle numbers again.

didn't he sign with the Dolphins? anyway, I agree he could be a very nice sleeper this year. I have him as my #39 ranked DB in the dynasty rankings.

Correct.

 

[Beaumont]

TEN CB Renaldo Hill played very well in limited duty with the Raiders last year. He's not big but he plays very aggressive against the run. Played a few different positions if I remember correctly. Not sure what spot he'll play for the Titans but I think he'll find a way to put up the tackle numbers again.

didn't he sign with the Dolphins? anyway, I agree he could be a very nice sleeper this year. I have him as my #39 ranked DB in the dynasty rankings.

Correct.

Renaldo Hill Oak/now Mia is not the same as Reynaldo Hill Tenn ...Edited to add Reynaldo = Tenn, Renaldo = Mia

 

[Finatic]

TEN CB Renaldo Hill played very well in limited duty with the Raiders last year.  He's not big but he plays very aggressive against the run.  Played a few different positions if I remember correctly.  Not sure what spot he'll play for the Titans but I think he'll find a way to put up the tackle numbers again.

didn't he sign with the Dolphins? anyway, I agree he could be a very nice sleeper this year. I have him as my #39 ranked DB in the dynasty rankings.

I picked him up on the cheap this past offseason in Z26.Saban like Belichek has a knack for uncovering gems in the secondary.

 

[Pick]

TEN CB Renaldo Hill played very well in limited duty with the Raiders last year. He's not big but he plays very aggressive against the run. Played a few different positions if I remember correctly. Not sure what spot he'll play for the Titans but I think he'll find a way to put up the tackle numbers again.

didn't he sign with the Dolphins? anyway, I agree he could be a very nice sleeper this year. I have him as my #39 ranked DB in the dynasty rankings.

Correct.

Renaldo Hill Oak/now Mia is not the same as Reynaldo Hill Tenn ...Edited to add Reynaldo = Tenn, Renaldo = Mia

I'm just now figuring out there are two Reynaldo Hills in the NFL.

 

[pretender]

TEN CB Renaldo Hill played very well in limited duty with the Raiders last year.  He's not big but he plays very aggressive against the run.  Played a few different positions if I remember correctly.  Not sure what spot he'll play for the Titans but I think he'll find a way to put up the tackle numbers again.

didn't he sign with the Dolphins? anyway, I agree he could be a very nice sleeper this year. I have him as my #39 ranked DB in the dynasty rankings.

So I am also learning there are 2 R Hills So which is the good sleeper Renaldo in Miami - or Reynaldo in Tenn or both??