Groupthink can be fantasy poison (1 Viewer)

[Time Kibitzer]

Can't say I've followed the DA situation so I know nothing about that. But I have followed Cobb and that is a good example of solid analysis in the SP. But I think it was a pretty easy assessment to make. There were many things going Cobb's way as he entered his rookie season. MVP QB, passing-focused team, impending retirement of starting WR. And then he returned a kick for a TD and caught a TD in his first game on national television. Dynasty/Keeper people picked him up knowing he'd be quality but that it would take time.

I didn't consider the pitfalls on Hillman. That's why I posted this thread. I caught Hillman fever. After all, the prospect of grabbing a starting RB off the WW to save your season is pretty intoxicating. And then we all drink each other's koolaid. That's where the problem is.

And I do think assessing the RB is harder than the WR. Need to think about it more but that's my hunch anyway.

this keeps coming off as hindsight bias; you're talking about the past as if what was going to happen in the future was obvious, when in reality I can't imagine you making such strong claims about Cobb, Hillman, and Wilson at the time their hype threads started. The fact is, the Shark Pool hypes up lots of players; what you're responsible for is deciphering what posts contain relevant information and what posts contain irrelevant circle jerking. Blaming the existence of hype threads for your poor WW management is simply self-serving bias.

So you ask me about a couple guys and I tell you I don't know much about one and that I thought the prospects for the other were very good (after mentioning earlier that I follow the Pack closely). Then you accuse me of hindsight bias. Strange.You're right. I did not make such strong claims about those guys - Hillman and Wilson anyway. That's exactly my point. I want more, better information than what I often have to wade through. I want a David Yudkin for every team.

And I didn't ever blame the existence of hype threads for poor WW management. Nor have I said that I've poorly managed the WW. I'm just looking for something better without being sure what better is.

Again, you're misunderstanding my approach. I'm not complaining about my teams, my moves, etc. I'm trying to figure out how to get better information to make better decisions. Seems lost on you but I'm beginning to think that's par for the course.

Ok, so you already knew Cobb was gonna be good, how bout Cecil Shorts or perhaps Kaepernick? The Shark Pool has hyped both of them in recent weeks and they've each delivered so far. Again, the Shark Pool hypes lots of players, your task is to interpret which of those threads are baseless and which are foretelling.It appears pretty obvious to me that you are blaming your misfortunes on others. It wasn't your fault that you picked up Hillman instead of Moreno, it's the Shark Pool's fault for providing misinformation.

If all you're looking for is informed opinions by homers without having to wade through nonsense posts, then why not just read articles from each NFL team's beat writer?

You should reread post #10. Seems you've already made up your mind on where you stand on this and presume to have all the facts. I'd say more but you're doing a fine job of undermining yourself.

Sorry I must have missed that post, but that doesn't really change the point I was making. Insert "tried to" in front of "picked up" and the sentence still works as intended. If you understand that groupthink occurs in the Shark Pool like you claim to, then what's stopping you from just recognizing that in your own personal analysis of players?

 

[The Dude]

I understand your point, OP, but I think it's misplaced.

There was a lot of logical speculation discussed (talking Hillman here). Lots of people assumed a set of events off that speculation. If you arrived at the same conclusion, that's your error.

A wise play was to recognize the opportunity for Moreno - regardless of what people were posting - and pick him up anyways.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Groupthink affected Alfred Morris' status as well. So many people were scared of Mike Shanahan that they convinced others to stay away from Washington's starting RB.

Sometimes the odds don't pay off but that was a wise move no matter what Morris' numbers end up being.

I completely disagree. Shanahan's RBBC history had been exaggerated for years, but anytime someone tried to point that out, they were shouted down by the masses. As a result, Morris' ADP was RB46 -- well behind most of the other starting RBs in the league (and even behind some 3rd stringers).What makes it even worse is that Morris' artificially-low ADP should have been taken as a sign of value for late round steals, but once again the groupthink mentality got in the way.It may have been a wise move to avoid Morris in the first 5 rounds, but it certainly was NOT a wise move to avoid him altogether.

What kind of revisionist thinking is this?Nobody had a clue who would start for Washington back in July. Argue about mid September forward if you want, but it was far from clear when most drafts were taking place.

That's what I was thinking on that Al Morris front. I don't recall him being the obvious starter when I drafted. That would explain his lower ADP. I'm pretty sure most felt Helu would be the starter. I know I had a ton of interest in Helu this off-season in my dynasty league.

 

[money.never.sleeps]

A wise play was to recognize the opportunity for Moreno - regardless of what people were posting - and pick him up anyways.

Even if Moreno was in the back of someone's mind.. How many teams can afford to roster 2 players when you're not sure who's going to start? Further more.. How many teams that are in playoff contention would rely on 1 or the other to make or break them? Not many