Had to give this its own thread (1 Viewer)

[LawFitz]

If you want easy money, Pitt -4.5 all day every day.

This line make zero sense to me. I know the Brownies Oline is improved, but how are they gonna keep pace with the Stillers, who seem to me superior in every facet but TE.

Not only that, they OWN the Browns. Per FBG Trend-Spotting (yet ANOTHER reason to subscribe to FBG -- consolidated "duh" info at the tip of your fingers):

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns

* The Steelers are 7-1 against the Browns in the last eight meetings

* The Steelers have scored 26.2 PPG while the Browns have averaged just 15.0 PPG

* The Steelers are 4-0 in Cleveland, outscoring the Browns 25.5 to 9.0

Anyone still feel like taking Cleveland?

Whenever I see a line like this it screams trap game. Like the bookies know something we don't. But I can't figure this one out. We'll have to revisit this after Sunday. Sure seems like easy $$$, but again, the bookies are too f'n good to make this such an obvious pick. There must be something we're missing?

 

[Penguin]

LawFitz,

What do you think the spread would be if the game was in Pittsburgh? Subtract the 3 point home field advantage from Cleveland and add it to Pittsburgh. It's hard to make the Steelers more than 10.5 point favorites at home before they even play a regular season game.

 

[PahtyTom]

If they made the line any higher they would get hit by a lot of sharp money on the Browns because of the value. That said, I wouldn't touch this one.

 

[LawFitz]

LawFitz, What do you think the spread would be if the game was in Pittsburgh? Subtract the 3 point home field advantage from Cleveland and add it to Pittsburgh. It's hard to make the Steelers more than 10.5 point favorites at home before they even play a regular season game.

That three point home field advantage you speak of is not a 6 point swing. It's a simple 3 points, or in the terms you outline, 1.5 each way. So Stillers by 7.5 at home.Either way, is see the Stillers blowing the Brownies out unless I'm way overrating them or way underrating the Brown hole... which is definitely possible!Somebody plz explain to me how the Brownies have any shot in this game...

 

[PahtyTom]

LawFitz, What do you think the spread would be if the game was in Pittsburgh? Subtract the 3 point home field advantage from Cleveland and add it to Pittsburgh. It's hard to make the Steelers more than 10.5 point favorites at home before they even play a regular season game.

That three point home field advantage you speak of is not a 6 point swing. It's a simple 3 points, or in the terms you outline, 1.5 each way. So Stillers by 7.5 at home.Either way, is see the Stillers blowing the Brownies out unless I'm way overrating them or way underrating the Brown hole... which is definitely possible!Somebody plz explain to me how the Brownies have any shot in this game...

Na you're wrong. It's 3 points each way, 6 point swing. 100% certain.

 

[Penguin]

LawFitz, What do you think the spread would be if the game was in Pittsburgh? Subtract the 3 point home field advantage from Cleveland and add it to Pittsburgh. It's hard to make the Steelers more than 10.5 point favorites at home before they even play a regular season game.

That three point home field advantage you speak of is not a 6 point swing. It's a simple 3 points, or in the terms you outline, 1.5 each way. So Stillers by 7.5 at home.Either way, is see the Stillers blowing the Brownies out unless I'm way overrating them or way underrating the Brown hole... which is definitely possible!Somebody plz explain to me how the Brownies have any shot in this game...

Na you're wrong. It's 3 points each way, 6 point swing. 100% certain.

I like your style

 

[LawFitz]

Na you're wrong. It's 3 points each way, 6 point swing. 100% certain.

Really? Six points for playing at home? That seems outrageous.But if you're 100% certain...

 

[Penguin]

Na you're wrong. It's 3 points each way, 6 point swing. 100% certain.

Really? Six points for playing at home? That seems outrageous.But if you're 100% certain...

It's not 6 points for playing at home. You are looking at it all wrong.Example, team A and Team B are identical. On a neutral field the game would be a pick. Team A is at home and they are now favored by 3. If team B was at home they would be favored by 3 (remember, on a neutral field the game would be a pick.) Now, do you see the 6 point swing, I think swing is the key word/part you are missing out on.

 

[LawFitz]

Na you're wrong. It's 3 points each way, 6 point swing. 100% certain.

Really? Six points for playing at home? That seems outrageous.But if you're 100% certain...

It's not 6 points for playing at home. You are looking at it all wrong.Example, team A and Team B are identical. On a neutral field the game would be a pick. Team A is at home and they are now favored by 3. If team B was at home they would be favored by 3 (remember, on a neutral field the game would be a pick.) Now, do you see the 6 point swing, I think swing is the key word/part you are missing out on.

I get what you're saying, but I still think it's outrageous that either team would get six more points b/c of a change of venue. I mean seriously, how much does crowd noise really matter in the modern age of silent counts and wireless helmet communication? Really?Not saying you're wrong, just doubting the betting logic in it.

 

[Penguin]

Na you're wrong. It's 3 points each way, 6 point swing. 100% certain.

Really? Six points for playing at home? That seems outrageous.But if you're 100% certain...

It's not 6 points for playing at home. You are looking at it all wrong.Example, team A and Team B are identical. On a neutral field the game would be a pick. Team A is at home and they are now favored by 3. If team B was at home they would be favored by 3 (remember, on a neutral field the game would be a pick.) Now, do you see the 6 point swing, I think swing is the key word/part you are missing out on.

I get what you're saying, but I still think it's outrageous that either team would get six more points b/c of a change of venue. I mean seriously, how much does crowd noise really matter in the modern age of silent counts and wireless helmet communication? Really?Not saying you're wrong, just doubting the betting logic in it.

It's not all about crowd noise. You have to take into consideration traveling, some teams are flying coast to coast. You have to take into consideration "Home Comfort" or "Home Cooking" as some like to refer to it. Payton got to roll out of his own bed with his wife & kids at home, home cooked meal, no traveling all week. Short trip to the stadium, sounds really nice. Bree's flew to Indy on Wednesday, had one less day of preparation, stayed in a hotel etc. Multiply that by 53 players on each side. The crowd, the familiarity of the field and many other factors that I can't think of and haven't included here.

 

[LawFitz]

Na you're wrong. It's 3 points each way, 6 point swing. 100% certain.

Really? Six points for playing at home? That seems outrageous.But if you're 100% certain...

It's not 6 points for playing at home. You are looking at it all wrong.Example, team A and Team B are identical. On a neutral field the game would be a pick. Team A is at home and they are now favored by 3. If team B was at home they would be favored by 3 (remember, on a neutral field the game would be a pick.) Now, do you see the 6 point swing, I think swing is the key word/part you are missing out on.

I get what you're saying, but I still think it's outrageous that either team would get six more points b/c of a change of venue. I mean seriously, how much does crowd noise really matter in the modern age of silent counts and wireless helmet communication? Really?Not saying you're wrong, just doubting the betting logic in it.

It's not all about crowd noise. You have to take into consideration traveling, some teams are flying coast to coast. You have to take into consideration "Home Comfort" or "Home Cooking" as some like to refer to it. Payton got to roll out of his own bed with his wife & kids at home, home cooked meal, no traveling all week. Short trip to the stadium, sounds really nice. Bree's flew to Indy on Wednesday, had one less day of preparation, stayed in a hotel etc. Multiply that by 53 players on each side. The crowd, the familiarity of the field and many other factors that I can't think of and haven't included here.

Fine, but even with all of that, 6 points is A LOT in betting circles. Still the SAME two TEAMS.

 

[PahtyTom]

Na you're wrong. It's 3 points each way, 6 point swing. 100% certain.

Really? Six points for playing at home? That seems outrageous.But if you're 100% certain...

It's not 6 points for playing at home. You are looking at it all wrong.Example, team A and Team B are identical. On a neutral field the game would be a pick. Team A is at home and they are now favored by 3. If team B was at home they would be favored by 3 (remember, on a neutral field the game would be a pick.) Now, do you see the 6 point swing, I think swing is the key word/part you are missing out on.

I get what you're saying, but I still think it's outrageous that either team would get six more points b/c of a change of venue. I mean seriously, how much does crowd noise really matter in the modern age of silent counts and wireless helmet communication? Really?Not saying you're wrong, just doubting the betting logic in it.

It's not all about crowd noise. You have to take into consideration traveling, some teams are flying coast to coast. You have to take into consideration "Home Comfort" or "Home Cooking" as some like to refer to it. Payton got to roll out of his own bed with his wife & kids at home, home cooked meal, no traveling all week. Short trip to the stadium, sounds really nice. Bree's flew to Indy on Wednesday, had one less day of preparation, stayed in a hotel etc. Multiply that by 53 players on each side. The crowd, the familiarity of the field and many other factors that I can't think of and haven't included here.

Fine, but even with all of that, 6 points is A LOT in betting circles. Still the SAME two TEAMS.

The difference between Denver playing at Buffalo and Denver playing Buffalo in Denver is huge. Think of a matchup like that.

 

[LawFitz]

The difference between Denver playing at Buffalo and Denver playing Buffalo in Denver is huge. Think of a matchup like that.

In that context, I guess the 6 pts really should vary from venue to venue.I'm not scared of the Brown hole. (wow, I cracked even myself up with that one)Take the Stillers.

 

[Tecumseh]

Here's your reason.

 

[Steeler07]

I don't see the trap anywhere. The Steelers were pretty bad last year, and they're still 4.5 favs on the road.

 

[BuddyKnuckles]

Be careful of viewing games as "traps" and thinking in terms of "maybe the bookies know something". All successful bookies, and legit books, understand that they don't make money by picking games correctly, they make money on the juice. Which is the same as saying they know how to create lines which balance the betting. If a game is split 50/50, the bookie cant lose (well, almost anyway). Whereas if it is bet 70/.30 (or worse) then there is much more risk involved for the book.

My point is that Vegas sets lines based on knowledge of the game AND knowledge of people and their betting patterns. For whatever reason, the books have set the line to where most small time players will see it and take the Steelers minus the points. Maybe there was a lot of early, big action on the Brownies? Maybe they just want early money on the Steelers because they know people will take the Browns eventually if they continue to move the line (5.5. as of now)?

Bottom line, if you like the line, take it.

 

[smcindoe]

Be careful of viewing games as "traps" and thinking in terms of "maybe the bookies know something". All successful bookies, and legit books, understand that they don't make money by picking games correctly, they make money on the juice. Which is the same as saying they know how to create lines which balance the betting. If a game is split 50/50, the bookie cant lose (well, almost anyway). Whereas if it is bet 70/.30 (or worse) then there is much more risk involved for the book.

This is not actually true, or at least it's not true to the extent many believe it is. Yes, a 50/50 split is a guaranteed profit for the books. But they're in business to make the most money possible over the long-term, and that means they don't necessarily mind if the betting is unbalanced if they feel they have an expected edge.Extreme example -- let's say the line was a ridiculous 50 points, and everyone was still betting on the favorite. Would the books change the line to encourage more betting on the underdog and balance the bets on both sides? No, because they'd expect to make more money if everyone is making (presumably) bad bets. It would be a "trap" they'd be happy to leave open.That's obviously an extreme and unrealistic example, but it gives you an idea of where the concept comes from.

 

[amnesiac]

i don't understand any of the betting stuff, but here's my take:

i think maybe people in general terms see the Browns as a team which is improving, whereas the Steelers are a team that are in transition, which may mean that they aren't going to be as good in the short term.

so there may be a percieved closing gap between the two teams.

of course, i still expect my Brownies to lose, but i do expect the game to be a bit closer than in the past.

 

[The Duff Man]

A division rival favored by 4.5 on the road is a pretty large spread. The Browns figure to have a much improved running game, with solid changes to their Oline and Lewis who should perform better than what they had last year. They have weapons in the passing game in Edwards and Winslow. It is their home opener, they will be fired up.

Pit still looks good, but laying that many points in a division game on the road carries risk.

 

[The Duff Man]

The difference between Denver playing at Buffalo and Denver playing Buffalo in Denver is huge. Think of a matchup like that.

In that context, I guess the 6 pts really should vary from venue to venue.I'm not scared of the Brown hole. (wow, I cracked even myself up with that one)Take the Stillers.

Steelers AT Browns -4.5Steelers vrs Browns on a neutral site -7.5Steelers HOME vrs Browns -10.5That is your 6 point swing.

 

[TDavi118]

What's the O/U guys? You might consider a teaser,...take the Steelers +2 and decide on the o/u. Without checking, I'd say the o/u is 36, making veagas' prediction around a 20-16 victory for Pitt. Just a guess.

 

[yinzer]

Division rival and improving team or not, this is still THE BROWNS. Whether you consider 4.5 points a lot or not, the Steelers I believe will win this easy.

The Steelers were definitely worse off last year, all things considered, then they are now, and they still beat CLE by 4 @ CLE last year (I'm guessing this line might be considering this game).

Roethlisberger is back and healthy, the passing offense as a whole is improved, The OLine while not great should be better than last year, and I think the defense will return to Top 10 form. I think the pass rush and sack numbers are better this year, as well as secondary. I see the opposition converting A LOT less on 3rd&3+.

Now I'm a homer, but I don't see the Steelers winning this by less than 10.

.....and if you wanna talk about a crazy line, how about BAL @ CIN with CIN favored by 2.5...NOW THAT IS CANT MISSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!

edit: can't miss for BAL that is

 

[The Gator]

Cleveland money line.

EG72>

 

[Pittsburgh United]

.....and if you wanna talk about a crazy line, how about BAL @ CIN with CIN favored by 2.5...NOW THAT IS CANT MISSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!edit: can't miss for BAL that is

 

[Defending Champs]

.....and if you wanna talk about a crazy line, how about BAL @ CIN with CIN favored by 2.5...NOW THAT IS CANT MISSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!edit: can't miss for BAL that is

I took Cincy in my pool, I let my distaste for Brian Billick cloud my judgment from time to time, this may be one of them.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Road favorites are sucker bets, especially divisional.

You want a sure winner, take the under in the Chargers game, or the Rams -1 @ home against the Panthers.

Thanks me later.

 

[yinzer]

Road favorites are sucker bets, especially divisional.

You want a sure winner, take the under in the Chargers game, or the Rams -1 @ home against the Panthers.

Thanks me later.

Generally, this may be true, but the spread and the teams involved do matter as wellPittsburgh has Cleveland for forever. While CLE is improving, no way they win more than 5. PIT will win 10 or more. I think the line is very favorable for PIT

I like that Chargers under idea, but I think CIN -2.5 to BAL is just plain ridiculous. I don't know that I have ever seen a line more inexplicably and blatantly off. I guess a lot of people in Bungal country have high hopes since no one's been arrested in 3 months and have high expectations

 

[MojoDawg]

Road favorites are sucker bets, especially divisional.

You want a sure winner, take the under in the Chargers game, or the Rams -1 @ home against the Panthers.

Thanks me later.

Generally, this may be true, but the spread and the teams involved do matter as wellPittsburgh has Cleveland for forever. While CLE is improving, no way they win more than 5. PIT will win 10 or more. I think the line is very favorable for PIT

I like that Chargers under idea, but I think CIN -2.5 to BAL is just plain ridiculous. I don't know that I have ever seen a line more inexplicably and blatantly off. I guess a lot of people in Bungal country have high hopes since no one's been arrested in 3 months and have high expectations

The all-time head-to-head record is 55-55. So yeah - I guess Pitt has owned them forever.Of course, that also means that Cleveland has owned Pissberg as well.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Na you're wrong. It's 3 points each way, 6 point swing. 100% certain.

Really? Six points for playing at home? That seems outrageous.But if you're 100% certain...

It's not 6 points for playing at home. You are looking at it all wrong.Example, team A and Team B are identical. On a neutral field the game would be a pick. Team A is at home and they are now favored by 3. If team B was at home they would be favored by 3 (remember, on a neutral field the game would be a pick.) Now, do you see the 6 point swing, I think swing is the key word/part you are missing out on.

This is 100% correct.

 

[DoubleG]

Road favorites are sucker bets, especially divisional.

You want a sure winner, take the under in the Chargers game, or the Rams -1 @ home against the Panthers.

Thanks me later.

Generally, this may be true, but the spread and the teams involved do matter as wellPittsburgh has Cleveland for forever. While CLE is improving, no way they win more than 5. PIT will win 10 or more. I think the line is very favorable for PIT

I like that Chargers under idea, but I think CIN -2.5 to BAL is just plain ridiculous. I don't know that I have ever seen a line more inexplicably and blatantly off. I guess a lot of people in Bungal country have high hopes since no one's been arrested in 3 months and have high expectations

The all-time head-to-head record is 55-55. So yeah - I guess Pitt has owned them forever.Of course, that also means that Cleveland has owned Pissberg as well.

Someone else just got I do hate it when facts get in the way of good smack talk.

 

[Pittsburgh United]

He probably means something like, the Browns have only beaten the Steelers three times since 1993. Come on Cleveland - this hasn't been a rivalry since at least ten years before the REAL Browns moved to Baltimore. This expansion team of yours has never gotten off the ground.

EDITED TO ADD:

 

[Jimboozie]

Steelers are going to massacre the Brownies.

Any team that decides its starting QB by flipping a coin, is not in good shape.

 

[rgmnchr]

He probably means something like, the Browns have only beaten the Steelers three times since 1993. Come on Cleveland - this hasn't been a rivalry since at least ten years before the REAL Browns moved to Baltimore. This expansion team of yours has never gotten off the ground.

EDITED TO ADD:

Its not real tough to own a team that has to start rebuilding with every one elses scrap. The Brownies got a raw deal from the second they let Carmen Policy take over our team. A couple of chit bag coaches later and we finally found one that has a clue. The defense is going to be very tough this year, mark it down, top 12 overall. The offense has talent and a productive gameplan, two things we havent had since we left. That said there is still one more piece to add before getting over the hump, Brady Quinn. Unfortunaley Charlie Frye has to be the guinea pig for the new offense. I have to leave Ill finishthis later

 

[Lehigh98]

:mansion:

 

[Godsbrother]

The defense is going to be very tough this year, mark it down, top 12 overall. The offense has talent and a productive gameplan, two things we havent had since we left. That said there is still one more piece to add before getting over the hump, Brady Quinn. Unfortunaley Charlie Frye has to be the guinea pig for the new offense. I have to leave Ill finishthis later

I look at it this way: the Steelers are better at every skill offensive position than the Browns other than TE where they are pretty close. The Browns o-line has improved on paper but still not as good as the Steelers o-line. The Steelers defense is better than the Browns. About the only area where I see an advantage to the Browns is perhaps Special Teams and home field advantage (although the Steelers have had much success there).Does any of this mean the Steelers can just show up and blow out the Browns? Nope. The Browns are going to be really fired up and therefore are dangerous. The 4.5 points seem reasonable to me.

 

[kupcho1]

The Brownies got a raw deal from the second they let Carmen Policy take over our team.

So they gave themselves a raw deal?

 

[rgmnchr]

The Brownies got a raw deal from the second they let Carmen Policy take over our team.

So they gave themselves a raw deal?

No the league essentially assigned Policy and Co. the job.

 

[RedRaiders]

The difference between Denver playing at Buffalo and Denver playing Buffalo in Denver is huge. Think of a matchup like that.

In that context, I guess the 6 pts really should vary from venue to venue.I'm not scared of the Brown hole. (wow, I cracked even myself up with that one)Take the Stillers.

Steelers AT Browns -4.5Steelers vrs Browns on a neutral site -7.5Steelers HOME vrs Browns -10.5That is your 6 point swing.

There you have it.

 

[chris1969]

Pittsburgh Week 1 = Michigan Week 1. Suddenly they'll figure out they didn't replace some key players as well as they thought.

 

[Irish]

Pittsburgh Week 1 = Michigan Week 1. Suddenly they'll figure out they didn't replace some key players as well as they thought.

You are giving the Browns WAY too much credit comparing them App State.

 

[Godsbrother]

Pittsburgh Week 1 = Michigan Week 1. Suddenly they'll figure out they didn't replace some key players as well as they thought.

I am curious as to what key players you are talking about. Other than LB Joey Porter and C Jeff Hartings who were largely ineffective last season, what player specifically are you talking about -- Chris Gardocki???

 

[tombonneau]

Surprised this wasn't bumped. Funny how many "sure thing, you can thank me later" picks on here panned out.

Of course Pit -4.5 was still the lock of the week.

Same as Chicago minus whatever you can get it at this week.

That game has 38-3 written all over it.

 

[Sinrman]

Surprised this wasn't bumped. Funny how many "sure thing, you can thank me later" picks on here panned out. Of course Pit -4.5 was still the lock of the week.Same as Chicago minus whatever you can get it at this week.That game has 38-3 written all over it.

Yeah, I knew Pitt -4.5 was a lock against the Brownies. The Browns haven't done much at all to improve that team. It still has a blah offense. Not to mention the Steelers OWN the Browns, and have for... ummm nearly forever?The Bengals -6.5 is almost a lock too this week, even if it's at Cleveland... they are THAT bad!

 

[tombonneau]

Surprised this wasn't bumped. Funny how many "sure thing, you can thank me later" picks on here panned out. Of course Pit -4.5 was still the lock of the week.Same as Chicago minus whatever you can get it at this week.That game has 38-3 written all over it.

Yeah, I knew Pitt -4.5 was a lock against the Brownies. The Browns haven't done much at all to improve that team. It still has a blah offense. Not to mention the Steelers OWN the Browns, and have for... ummm nearly forever?The Bengals -6.5 is almost a lock too this week, even if it's at Cleveland... they are THAT bad!

-6.5 is def. very nice for CIN, but you're right to call it an almost lock. They "should" manhandle CLE, but I don't have the total confidence that they will dominate like I did with PIT. That team is too Jekyl & Hyde.

 

[BuddyKnuckles]

Be careful of viewing games as "traps" and thinking in terms of "maybe the bookies know something". All successful bookies, and legit books, understand that they don't make money by picking games correctly, they make money on the juice. Which is the same as saying they know how to create lines which balance the betting. If a game is split 50/50, the bookie cant lose (well, almost anyway). Whereas if it is bet 70/.30 (or worse) then there is much more risk involved for the book.

This is not actually true, or at least it's not true to the extent many believe it is. Yes, a 50/50 split is a guaranteed profit for the books. But they're in business to make the most money possible over the long-term, and that means they don't necessarily mind if the betting is unbalanced if they feel they have an expected edge.Extreme example -- let's say the line was a ridiculous 50 points, and everyone was still betting on the favorite. Would the books change the line to encourage more betting on the underdog and balance the bets on both sides? No, because they'd expect to make more money if everyone is making (presumably) bad bets. It would be a "trap" they'd be happy to leave open.That's obviously an extreme and unrealistic example, but it gives you an idea of where the concept comes from.

I don't have any immediate ties to legalized sportsbooks, so if you do, then i defer to your knowledge. But, IMO, unnecessarily accepting risk would not be a sound business move when the stakes are that high. I imagine that Vegas Books and oddsmakers run a multi billion dollar business. And most large business owners i know (i do actually know a few), are not willing to take unnecessary risks when there is that much money involved and there are acceptable, albeit less profitable alternatives.I do agree that the Books would assume risk if it meant the bets were split 55/45 (or something small like that) and they felt they had an advantage. But that leads me to believe that the expected advantage would materialize in a very small movement in the spread. In turn, that would equate to a line that you felt was "a few points off". I think most people looked at the Steelers line and "knew" it was way off. Easy to use hindsight, but i would have had it as a double digit spread to start with.

 

[Barry]

Pittsburgh Week 1 = Michigan Week 1. Suddenly they'll figure out they didn't replace some key players as well as they thought.

I am curious as to what key players you are talking about. Other than LB Joey Porter and C Jeff Hartings who were largely ineffective last season, what player specifically are you talking about -- Chris Gardocki???

Hartings ineffective? Having a center that doesn't need help with the NT or DT frees up the guard to get on a linebacker. Hartings handled everyone on his own except for Jamal Williams. He retired because of his knees. Nothing to do with performance.

 

[ChrisHenrysDD]

It's always easy to tell everybody what games are locks after they've been played, isn't it? As an aside, I have a hard time giving 12 points to any team with Rex Grossman that isn't the Gators taking snaps, but, then again, the special teams and defense will probably make those 12 points by themselves.

And actually, I was surprised to hear this, the win on saturday finally gave the Steelers the Series lead. They really thumped the Steelers in the 50's and 60's

 

[kupcho1]

It's always easy to tell everybody what games are locks after they've been played, isn't it?

 

[LawFitz]

It's always easy to tell everybody what games are locks after they've been played, isn't it? As an aside, I have a hard time giving 12 points to any team with Rex Grossman taking snaps, but, then again, the special teams and defense will probably make those 12 points by themselves.

To some of us, the Stillers were a lock well before the game on Sunday.

 

[tombonneau]

It's always easy to tell everybody what games are locks after they've been played, isn't it? As an aside, I have a hard time giving 12 points to any team with Rex Grossman that isn't the Gators taking snaps, but, then again, the special teams and defense will probably make those 12 points by themselves.And actually, I was surprised to hear this, the win on saturday finally gave the Steelers the Series lead. They really thumped the Steelers in the 50's and 60's

I had the Steelers them fitted for their lead pipe lock last Tuesday. I agree it's tough to give 12 points with Rex, but don't think of it that way. As you said, it's the D & ST. Plus, Rex had some huge games last year against crap teams.And KC is CapsLock CRAP.