Harvin to Bills/ Formerly the Harvin to Hawks & Jets (1 Viewer)

[Adam Harstad]

Objectively, Harvin has been in the league for five seasons and has not yet had a 1000 yard season.

That to me does not scream top ten-fifteen WR in dynasty

In four seasons, Harvin had 925 yards (in 15 games), 975 yards (in 14 games), 1312 yards, and 778 yards (in 9 games). Basically, he's been on a 1,000+ yard pace in every single season of his entire career. Unless your league doesn't reward rushing yards, which seems like an awfully weird league...

If you meant only as a RECEIVER... well, Harvin's been weighed down by playing in absolutely putrid passing offenses. From 2010-2012, Minnesota's passing offenses averaged fewer than 3,000 yards per season. Harvin's QBs over that time were final-season Brett Favre, Tavaris Jackson, Joe Webb, end-of-the-line Donovan McNabb, Christian Ponder, Joe Webb again, and then Christian Ponder again. Kind of a rough situation to be putting up a lot of 1,000 yard seasons. If you adjust his receiving numbers for his number of opportunities, though, they were elite- not his total numbers, I'm talking about strictly his receiving numbers. PFF keeps a stat called "Yards Per Route Run", which averages how many yards a receiver gets based on the number of routes he runs. The idea is that each route represents an opportunity, and it's supposed to be the WR equivalent of the QB's "Yards per attempt" stat. Over the last five years, the only player to rank in the top 10 in YPRR five times is Andre Johnson. The only guy to rank in the top 10 four times is... Percy Harvin, who ranked in the top 10 in each of his four seasons in Minnesota. Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall come next with three top-10 finishes over the last 5 years. That's some pretty quality company for Harvin to be keeping strictly as a receiver- even ignoring the fact that he has more rushing yards in his career than any other wide receiver in NFL history. PFF has data going back to 2007, and Harvin and Hakeem Nicks are the only two rookies to ever rank in the top 10 in YPRR- despite Harvin competing for catches with Sidney Rice his rookie year.

TL;DR- Harvin's pretty good as a receiver, too.

You've been a great poster here for a long time, obviously, and I know you've been high on Harvin for as long as he's been in the NFL, but at some point you have to be objective about who he is. He has a lot more value to his NFL team than he does to his fantasy owners.

Seattle is not going to become a prolific passing team. Harvin isn't going to receive a ton of carries with Lynch and Michael on the roster. Once you factor in Percy's propensity to miss games the appeal of his athleticism and potential starts to wear off. I just have trouble envisioning a logical scenario in Seattle where Harvin becomes the rushing/receiving monster fantasy owners hope for.

He might be more valuable to his NFL team than his fantasy owners going forward, but he's been pretty dang valuable to his fantasy owners in the past. He's been a top-24 fantasy WR every season of his career (the first guy since Moss to accomplish the feat in each of his first three seasons). He was the #6-8 fantasy WR in 2011 (depending on scoring). He was #2 or #3 at the time of his injury in 2012. He's been a very, very valuable fantasy receiver on some pretty awful Minnesota teams in the past.

Now, like I said, maybe that's different in Seattle. They certainly don't need to rely on him as much as Minnesota did. It's possible they limit him to keep him fresh for the playoffs. That's a possibility, though not a certainty. But it's pretty easy to envision a scenario where Harvin outperforms his ADP by a substantial amount. Golden Tate had 900 receiving yards last year, and Harvin is a much better receiver than Golden Tate. Is it really hard to envision him getting 100 more yards than Tate got? Would it really be so hard to envision Harvin averaging 2 carries per game for Seattle after seeing how they used him in the Superbowl? An extra 2 carries a game would probably translate to an extra 150-200 rushing yards. That's a pretty substantial bonus. Seattle's talking about using Harvin as their primary kickoff returner, and is even trying him out on punt returns. It certainly doesn't sound like they plan on "keeping him in the barn", so to speak.

And this is all assuming that Seattle remains in the bottom 2 in pass attempts, which is by no means a certainty. In Roethlisberger's first two years, Pitt ranked dead last in pass attempts. In Roethlisberger's third year, Pitt ranked 14th. An injury to Earl Thomas or Richard Sherman, or some natural defensive regression could easily lead to Seattle passing more. Maybe just regular development of Russell Wilson could do the same thing- franchise QBs eventually get the shackles taken off at some point.

Chase Stuart ran the numbers last season and found that, after adjusting for game situation, Seattle ranked 16th in the NFL in "pass identity" (i.e. how likely they were to pass on any given play). They were pretty much identical to Green Bay (although, in fairness, that was lowered by Rodgers missing time). They played with a ton of leads, which depressed their total pass attempts, but that's something that can vary from season to season.

I'm not expecting Seattle to be a prolific passing attack this year, but part of my point is that they don't have to be a prolific passing attack for Harvin to justify his ADP, and the other part of my point is that I'm not CERTAIN Seattle won't be a prolific passing attack this year. It would not surprise me in the slightest if Seattle ranked, say, 16th in pass attempts this season.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Seattle is not going to become a prolific passing team. Harvin isn't going to receive a ton of carries with Lynch and Michael on the roster. Once you factor in Percy's propensity to miss games the appeal of his athleticism and potential starts to wear off. I just have trouble envisioning a logical scenario in Seattle where Harvin becomes the rushing/receiving monster fantasy owners hope for.

How about he does exactly the same thing as he was doing on Minnesota, who is also not a prolific passing game and has a RB that demands a ton of carries, but doesn't get injured.

I have a hard time envisioning how you can't think up a logical scenario where he keeps doing exactly what he's been doing without a season ending injury. It may or may not happen, but it's pretty easy to envision.

 

[Grahamburn]

I don't think it's difficult to envision a scenario for Harvin to approach 1,000 yards. He's an extremely talented player.

However, I also don't see it as a logical conclusion to come to when I consider a projection for Seattle's passing offense. Seattle is built to play defense and run the football. Why would the Seahawks coaching staff go away from what just won them a Super Bowl? Especially when Wilson basically has a brand new set of receivers, including Harvin.

Maybe Seattle's defense isn't as dominant this year? In that case Wilson will have to throw the football more often, but would he be as efficient at it if the opponent knows it's coming? Part of what makes their passing offense so good on a per attempt basis is the other team has to gear up to stop the running game. Harvin is also clearly the only real receiving threat on this team with Tate and Rice gone.

I do agree he's a player to target considering his ADP, because the 16 game upside is enormous if a lot of the scenarios you outlined come to fruition. There are just a lot of things that need to break Harvin's way for him to have a fantasy season in line with his talents.

 

[Tau837]

Come on JWB, you're better than that. Being an efficient passing team and being a prolific passing team are not mutually exclusive. Wilson has barely eclipsed 3,000 yards in the last two seasons. A figure SSOG just used to then say this "It's really, really hard to go for 1,000 receiving yards on a team that's only throwing for 3,000 total."

3 carries per game would give Harvin 48 for the season, which would be just 4 fewer than his career high in Minnesota. A year where Harvin managed to play 16 games and was used much more as a RB because of an injury to Adrian Peterson. If you expect Lynch and Michael (Turbin isn't currently on Seattle's roster) to get hurt while Harvin doesn't then he may approach those numbers. However, he only had 15, 18, and 22 attempts in his other 3 seasons as a Viking.

As mentioned, Seattle had a lot of injuries to their OL and receivers last season. Do you think that if Harvin was healthy last season, Wilson's passing attempts, yardage, etc. would have remained the same? I don't think so. I think they would have been higher. I expect Seattle's passing offense to be more productive this season, given better health for the OL and receivers, notably Harvin.

As for the carries, okay, then say he gets 2 per game. As SSOG noted, that could be as much as 200 extra yards on the season.

As SSOG has pointed out a couple of times, just look at Golden Tate last season. He finished as WR29 in FBG scoring. Harvin is much better than Tate, and he will get more targets plus some number of carries. He will also get opportunities to score TDs in the return game.

The only issue is his health. How people view that issue clearly varies. Personally, I don't see his past health issues as predictive of injuries for this season and beyond. Which means I see him as a mortal lock to finish in the top 20, with top 10 potential.

 

[Grahamburn]

Seattle is not going to become a prolific passing team. Harvin isn't going to receive a ton of carries with Lynch and Michael on the roster. Once you factor in Percy's propensity to miss games the appeal of his athleticism and potential starts to wear off. I just have trouble envisioning a logical scenario in Seattle where Harvin becomes the rushing/receiving monster fantasy owners hope for.

How about he does exactly the same thing as he was doing on Minnesota, who is also not a prolific passing game and has a RB that demands a ton of carries, but doesn't get injured.

I have a hard time envisioning how you can't think up a logical scenario where he keeps doing exactly what he's been doing without a season ending injury. It may or may not happen, but it's pretty easy to envision.

Did you read the rushing/receiving fantasy monster part? His dynasty owners have been waiting for a 1,600+ yards from scrimmage and 10 TD season. I just don't see that coming. 1,100 and 7 is a much more likely and much less exciting 16 game taken with a grain of salt projection.

 

[jmo87usc]

Seattle is not going to become a prolific passing team. Harvin isn't going to receive a ton of carries with Lynch and Michael on the roster. Once you factor in Percy's propensity to miss games the appeal of his athleticism and potential starts to wear off. I just have trouble envisioning a logical scenario in Seattle where Harvin becomes the rushing/receiving monster fantasy owners hope for.

How about he does exactly the same thing as he was doing on Minnesota, who is also not a prolific passing game and has a RB that demands a ton of carries, but doesn't get injured.

I have a hard time envisioning how you can't think up a logical scenario where he keeps doing exactly what he's been doing without a season ending injury. It may or may not happen, but it's pretty easy to envision.

Did you read the rushing/receiving fantasy monster part? His dynasty owners have been waiting for a 1,600+ yards from scrimmage and 10 TD season. I just don't see that coming. 1,100 and 7 is a much more likely and much less exciting 16 game taken with a grain of salt projection.

As a Harvin owner in a ppr league that counts return TD's(not yardage), I would be very pleased with your tempered projection. It's very similar to his 2011 season when he finished as the WR9 overall. I think that's the best you can really hope for.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Seattle is not going to become a prolific passing team. Harvin isn't going to receive a ton of carries with Lynch and Michael on the roster. Once you factor in Percy's propensity to miss games the appeal of his athleticism and potential starts to wear off. I just have trouble envisioning a logical scenario in Seattle where Harvin becomes the rushing/receiving monster fantasy owners hope for.

How about he does exactly the same thing as he was doing on Minnesota, who is also not a prolific passing game and has a RB that demands a ton of carries, but doesn't get injured.

I have a hard time envisioning how you can't think up a logical scenario where he keeps doing exactly what he's been doing without a season ending injury. It may or may not happen, but it's pretty easy to envision.

Did you read the rushing/receiving fantasy monster part? His dynasty owners have been waiting for a 1,600+ yards from scrimmage and 10 TD season. I just don't see that coming. 1,100 and 7 is a much more likely and much less exciting 16 game taken with a grain of salt projection.

I'm struggling to find where you got those numbers, as the whole discussion that led to you giving that quote was about him putting up merely 1,000 yards receiving.

Regardless, in Harvin's last two seasons he put up 1312/8 in 2011 and was on pace for 1546/8 in 2012 before getting hurt and is now on a similar, but better team with better coaching. I can pretty easily "envision" a scenario where he matches his Minnesota numbers and it's not at all outlandish to imagine him improving on it a little bit. Of course, those numbers could get worse as well, but seeing the upside is easy.

Come on JWB, you're better than that. Being an efficient passing team and being a prolific passing team are not mutually exclusive. Wilson has barely eclipsed 3,000 yards in the last two seasons. A figure SSOG just used to then say this "It's really, really hard to go for 1,000 receiving yards on a team that's only throwing for 3,000 total."

3 carries per game would give Harvin 48 for the season, which would be just 4 fewer than his career high in Minnesota. A year where Harvin managed to play 16 games and was used much more as a RB because of an injury to Adrian Peterson. If you expect Lynch and Michael (Turbin isn't currently on Seattle's roster) to get hurt while Harvin doesn't then he may approach those numbers. However, he only had 15, 18, and 22 attempts in his other 3 seasons as a Viking.

Harvin got less carries early in his career, but his last two seasons he had 52 in one and was on pace for 44 in the other (the one where Adrian Peterson was busy nearly setting the NFL rushing record, btw). An average of....48.

 

[Grahamburn]

Come on JWB, you're better than that. Being an efficient passing team and being a prolific passing team are not mutually exclusive. Wilson has barely eclipsed 3,000 yards in the last two seasons. A figure SSOG just used to then say this "It's really, really hard to go for 1,000 receiving yards on a team that's only throwing for 3,000 total."

3 carries per game would give Harvin 48 for the season, which would be just 4 fewer than his career high in Minnesota. A year where Harvin managed to play 16 games and was used much more as a RB because of an injury to Adrian Peterson. If you expect Lynch and Michael (Turbin isn't currently on Seattle's roster) to get hurt while Harvin doesn't then he may approach those numbers. However, he only had 15, 18, and 22 attempts in his other 3 seasons as a Viking.

As mentioned, Seattle had a lot of injuries to their OL and receivers last season. Do you think that if Harvin was healthy last season, Wilson's passing attempts, yardage, etc. would have remained the same? I don't think so. I think they would have been higher. I expect Seattle's passing offense to be more productive this season, given better health for the OL and receivers, notably Harvin.

As for the carries, okay, then say he gets 2 per game. As SSOG noted, that could be as much as 200 extra yards on the season.

As SSOG has pointed out a couple of times, just look at Golden Tate last season. He finished as WR29 in FBG scoring. Harvin is much better than Tate, and he will get more targets plus some number of carries. He will also get opportunities to score TDs in the return game.

The only issue is his health. How people view that issue clearly varies. Personally, I don't see his past health issues as predictive of injuries for this season and beyond. Which means I see him as a mortal lock to finish in the top 20, with top 10 potential.

In 2013, if Harvin had been healthy, Seattle may have had a slight bump in their passing numbers. I doubt it would have been significant though. He likely would have just siphoned playing time from other players like Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, Sidney Rice, etc.

I don't think it's as easy as just plugging Percy in for Tate's numbers and then adding X amount because he's more talented. It doesn't work that way on the field. He has to build timing and rapport with Wilson. He has to stay healthy. He has to consistently beat the the coverage the #1 receiving option faces week in and week out in a ruthless defensive division.

 

[Grahamburn]

"On pace for" and "prorated" have become mandatory terms when discussing Percy Harvin.

 

[Adam Harstad]

In 2013, if Harvin had been healthy, Seattle may have had a slight bump in their passing numbers. I doubt it would have been significant though. He likely would have just siphoned playing time from other players like Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, Sidney Rice, etc.

I don't think it's as easy as just plugging Percy in for Tate's numbers and then adding X amount because he's more talented. It doesn't work that way on the field. He has to build timing and rapport with Wilson. He has to stay healthy. He has to consistently beat the the coverage the #1 receiving option faces week in and week out in a ruthless defensive division.

How much defensive attention do you think Michael Jenkins, Jairus Wright, Devin Aromashodu, Bernard Berrian, Visanthe Shiancoe, and Kyle Rudolph commanded in Minnesota? Beating #1 coverage is kind of old hat for Harvin.

 

[Adam Harstad]

"On pace for" and "prorated" have become mandatory terms when discussing Percy Harvin.

Percy Harvin played 56 consecutive games to open his career before he ever missed time due to injury. Note: he did miss three games to migraines during that span, but his migraine issues have since been diagnosed (sleep apnea) and resolved (sleeping with a cpap machine). By all reports I've read, he hasn't had one in years. So, outside of a migraine issue that has since been resolved, Percy Harvin played three and a half full seasons before he ever got injured badly enough to miss time.

People pro-rate exactly one of Percy Harvin's seasons. Hardly a "mandatory term".

 

[Sabertooth]

The fact remains that Harvin, despite being in the league for a pretty good sample size, for one reason or another, hasn't put in an elite fantasy season. Not saying he won't, but he hasn't. I have him in that WR20-30 range with good upside on a weekly basis. I tend to think he's going to be a variance due to game situations and usage.

He might put together a career season and still be wildly unpredictable. I think he'll have some monster weeks meaning 2+ touchdowns. And some weeks where on Monday morning you are looking to see if he got hurt because his stat line is 1-11, 1-3, 0

 

[Grahamburn]

"On pace for" and "prorated" have become mandatory terms when discussing Percy Harvin.

Percy Harvin played 56 consecutive games to open his career before he ever missed time due to injury. Note: he did miss three games to migraines during that span, but his migraine issues have since been diagnosed (sleep apnea) and resolved (sleeping with a cpap machine). By all reports I've read, he hasn't had one in years. So, outside of a migraine issue that has since been resolved, Percy Harvin played three and a half full seasons before he ever got injured badly enough to miss time.

People pro-rate exactly one of Percy Harvin's seasons. Hardly a "mandatory term".

And since those 56 games where we're omitting the ones he missed due to migraines he has played in exactly 10 regular season contests. The last of which he was knocked out of after making one catch.

For a guy who posts so much about risk you sure seem to ignore it when it comes to Percy Harvin.

 

[Ghost Rider]

He might be more valuable to his NFL team than his fantasy owners going forward, but he's been pretty dang valuable to his fantasy owners in the past. He's been a top-24 fantasy WR every season of his career (the first guy since Moss to accomplish the feat in each of his first three seasons). He was the #6-8 fantasy WR in 2011 (depending on scoring). He was #2 or #3 at the time of his injury in 2012. He's been a very, very valuable fantasy receiver on some pretty awful Minnesota teams in the past.

Eh, only one of those Vikings teams was pretty awful, the 2011 team that went 3-13, and let's not forget that he almost always had Adrian Peterson at RB in Minnesota, which always makes things a bit easier for the WRs (since defenses will always game plan to stop him first, even when he isn't having a monster season).

It should be interesting to see how much he produces on a run-first team with a dominant defense, considering they rarely have to throw it all over the place.

 

[Adam Harstad]

The fact remains that Harvin, despite being in the league for a pretty good sample size, for one reason or another, hasn't put in an elite fantasy season. Not saying he won't, but he hasn't. I have him in that WR20-30 range with good upside on a weekly basis. I tend to think he's going to be a variance due to game situations and usage.

He might put together a career season and still be wildly unpredictable. I think he'll have some monster weeks meaning 2+ touchdowns. And some weeks where on Monday morning you are looking to see if he got hurt because his stat line is 1-11, 1-3, 0

What's an elite season? Top 6-8 isn't elite?

 

[Adam Harstad]

"On pace for" and "prorated" have become mandatory terms when discussing Percy Harvin.

Percy Harvin played 56 consecutive games to open his career before he ever missed time due to injury. Note: he did miss three games to migraines during that span, but his migraine issues have since been diagnosed (sleep apnea) and resolved (sleeping with a cpap machine). By all reports I've read, he hasn't had one in years. So, outside of a migraine issue that has since been resolved, Percy Harvin played three and a half full seasons before he ever got injured badly enough to miss time.

People pro-rate exactly one of Percy Harvin's seasons. Hardly a "mandatory term".

And since those 56 games where we're omitting the ones he missed due to migraines he has played in exactly 10 regular season contests. The last of which he was knocked out of after making one catch.

For a guy who posts so much about risk you sure seem to ignore it when it comes to Percy Harvin.

Actually, since those 56 games he's only played in 1 regular-season contest. The 9 games to start 2012 were included in that 56.

I don't see where I'm ignoring risk in this thread. My first two posts were strictly about how good he is as a receiver- which he is. My third post mentioned that Seattle could very easily limit him to keep him fresh (acknowledging risk), but said it's pretty easy to envision a scenario where he's great- and it is. My fourth post was about how terrible Minnesota's secondary receivers are and how much defensive attention Harvin commanded- which he did. My fifth post was addressing the "fact" that "pro-rated" is a "mandatory term" by pointing out that Harvin only has had one season that people bother to pro-rate- which is true. I don't see where in this thread I've said a single word- positive or negative- about Harvin's chances of getting injured this year. I've strictly made factual statements about his past performance, and discussed an easy-to-envision hypothetical outcome for 2014 (without ever suggesting it was the only possible outcome; in fact, I even mentioned another more negative possibility).

But since we're talking about risks, I would say that Harvin's injury concerns are overblown. He had a sprained ankle, an offseason hip surgery, and a concussion. That's a fairly unremarkable career injury report, even if the timing of the injuries (and the fact that he was feuding with head coach Leslie Frazier) has meant that those injuries have resulted in a lot of missed time. For me, concerns about his role in the offense are bigger than concerns about his ability to stay healthy.

 

[Adam Harstad]

He might be more valuable to his NFL team than his fantasy owners going forward, but he's been pretty dang valuable to his fantasy owners in the past. He's been a top-24 fantasy WR every season of his career (the first guy since Moss to accomplish the feat in each of his first three seasons). He was the #6-8 fantasy WR in 2011 (depending on scoring). He was #2 or #3 at the time of his injury in 2012. He's been a very, very valuable fantasy receiver on some pretty awful Minnesota teams in the past.

Eh, only one of those Vikings teams was pretty awful, the 2011 team that went 3-13, and let's not forget that he almost always had Adrian Peterson at RB in Minnesota, which always makes things a bit easier for the WRs (since defenses will always game plan to stop him first, even when he isn't having a monster season).

It should be interesting to see how much he produces on a run-first team with a dominant defense, considering they rarely have to throw it all over the place.

Minnesota went 14-27 with Harvin on the field from 2010-2012. Quibbles over whether that counts as "pretty awful" or merely "very bad" aside, surely we can agree that the OFFENSE, at the very least, is fully deserving of the "awful" title.

 

[Grahamburn]

Dynasty wise what WRs would you rather have ranked around him. Everywhere I'm looking he's in the 8-14 range

Not everywhere, I hope...

I'm alluding to this post as I assume you have him ranked in this range or higher. I'm interested in him for this season and beyond, which is why I'm posting here. His ADP and relative acquisition cost should be at an all time low or close to it.

His injury concerns may be overblown, but they have to be considered when he's only played in a handful of games the past two seasons, especially in dynasty formats.

The projection I have for him in 2014 assuming 16 games would be around 80/920, 25/150, 7 TDs.

 

[Tau837]

In 2013, if Harvin had been healthy, Seattle may have had a slight bump in their passing numbers. I doubt it would have been significant though.

And I think this sums up the difference in our opinions.

 

[Ghost Rider]

He might be more valuable to his NFL team than his fantasy owners going forward, but he's been pretty dang valuable to his fantasy owners in the past. He's been a top-24 fantasy WR every season of his career (the first guy since Moss to accomplish the feat in each of his first three seasons). He was the #6-8 fantasy WR in 2011 (depending on scoring). He was #2 or #3 at the time of his injury in 2012. He's been a very, very valuable fantasy receiver on some pretty awful Minnesota teams in the past.

Eh, only one of those Vikings teams was pretty awful, the 2011 team that went 3-13, and let's not forget that he almost always had Adrian Peterson at RB in Minnesota, which always makes things a bit easier for the WRs (since defenses will always game plan to stop him first, even when he isn't having a monster season).

It should be interesting to see how much he produces on a run-first team with a dominant defense, considering they rarely have to throw it all over the place.

Minnesota went 14-27 with Harvin on the field from 2010-2012. Quibbles over whether that counts as "pretty awful" or merely "very bad" aside, surely we can agree that the OFFENSE, at the very least, is fully deserving of the "awful" title.

No offense with Adrian Peterson is awful. Those offenses from 2010-2012 were slightly below average (23rd, 18th and 20th in yards), but awful? Nah.

14-27 looks bad over a stretch, but like I said earlier, they were 3-13 in 2011, so that is 11-14 over the rest, which is mediocre, but not awful.

 

[PhantomJB]

"On pace for" and "prorated" have become mandatory terms when discussing Percy Harvin.

The same was said about Frank Gore before he played 16 games a year three years straight.

Or Reggie Bush before he played 45 of the last 48 games

Or Ryan Mathews before he played all 16 games last year.

Football is a rough sport.

 

[Grahamburn]

In 2013, if Harvin had been healthy, Seattle may have had a slight bump in their passing numbers. I doubt it would have been significant though.

And I think this sums up the difference in our opinions.

Fair enough. Fast forward to 2014. Golden Tate is gone. Sidney Rice is gone. How much upward projection does the Seattle passing offense have?

 

[Adam Harstad]

Dynasty wise what WRs would you rather have ranked around him. Everywhere I'm looking he's in the 8-14 range

Not everywhere, I hope...

I'm alluding to this post as I assume you have him ranked in this range or higher. I'm interested in him for this season and beyond, which is why I'm posting here. His ADP and relative acquisition cost should be at an all time low or close to it.

His injury concerns may be overblown, but they have to be considered when he's only played in a handful of games the past two seasons, especially in dynasty formats.

The projection I have for him in 2014 assuming 16 games would be around 80/920, 25/150, 7 TDs.

Oh, then you are correct- I have Percy Harvin at WR6 in my dynasty rankings.

Now, you might say that's a case of me ignoring (or improperly pricing) the risks. I disagree. I don't seem to get much flak over having Julio Jones as WR5 in my rankings, for instance, despite the fact that (1) Julio had more injury concerns than Harvin when he first entered the league, (2) Julio has missed more games in his first three seasons than Harvin missed in his first FOUR seasons (even including the migraine issues), and (3) Julio's injuries have clearly been chronic and repetitive in a way that Harvin's have not. That's a risk profile. I think that, given Julio's age and talent, his upside justifies his ranking despite the risk. That stance is wholly uncontroversial in the dynasty community. And since I think Harvin's age, talent, and risk are all comparable to Julio's, is it really so odd that Harvin's ranking should be comparable, as well? I'm not ignoring Harvin's risks, I'm pricing them every bit as consistently as I'm pricing Julio's.

More broadly, most of the top WRs have risks. Calvin is approaching his 30th birthday. Dez is apparently such a big character concern that his own team has hired a babysitter to follow him everywhere and keep him out of trouble. Demaryius will likely be losing Peyton Manning in a year or two. All of these are risks, too, but they're not enough to keep those receivers out of my top 5. A high ranking should not be confused with an endorsement of a player being "low-risk" or "no-risk". Percy Harvin has his share of risk, but guys with his talent/age/production profile are rare enough that they're worth a lot to me in dynasty.

As an aside, your 2014 projection is not far off of mine at all. I've got him at 80/960/7 + 32/192/2. So for 2014, we're looking at a difference of 40 receiving yards, 42 rushing yards, and 2 TDs.

 

[Tau837]

In 2013, if Harvin had been healthy, Seattle may have had a slight bump in their passing numbers. I doubt it would have been significant though.

And I think this sums up the difference in our opinions.

Fair enough. Fast forward to 2014. Golden Tate is gone. Sidney Rice is gone. How much upward projection does the Seattle passing offense have?

Sidney Rice isn't gone, though who knows if he will ever regain his top form. (And, by the way, Turbin isn't gone, either.)

Harvin is an elite talent at WR. Baldwin and Kearse are both underrated; Baldwin is a solid #2 and Kearse is a solid #3/#4 (with Rice being the other). And Richardson offers great potential. At TE, Zach Miller is average, but IMO Willson has great potential.

I haven't projected Seattle in depth yet, but I will be projecting a non-trivial increase in passing yardage.

 

[Grahamburn]

"On pace for" and "prorated" have become mandatory terms when discussing Percy Harvin.

The same was said about Frank Gore before he played 16 games a year three years straight.

Or Reggie Bush before he played 45 of the last 48 games

Or Ryan Mathews before he played all 16 games last year.

Football is a rough sport.

You'll find me in several old Gore and Bush threads downplaying their injury risk. I expect all RBs to succumb to injury. WRs less so, but I've defended Calvin Johnson and others in the past. I realize I'm being somewhat of a hypocrite here, but in today's head injury averse NFL Percy's previous migraine issues in addition to the recent concussion problems give me some pause.

 

[PhantomJB]

"On pace for" and "prorated" have become mandatory terms when discussing Percy Harvin.

The same was said about Frank Gore before he played 16 games a year three years straight.

Or Reggie Bush before he played 45 of the last 48 games

Or Ryan Mathews before he played all 16 games last year.

Football is a rough sport.

You'll find me in several old Gore and Bush threads downplaying their injury risk. I expect all RBs to succumb to injury. WRs less so, but I've defended Calvin Johnson and others in the past. I realize I'm being somewhat of a hypocrite here, but in today's head injury averse NFL Percy's previous migraine issues in addition to the recent concussion problems give me some pause.

Fair enough. Agree that head injuries deserve their own special category. My only point is that overcompensating for past injuries can result in missed opportunities (as I've painfully learned).

Seems to me Harvin's injury risk has already been priced into his ADP. IMO his performance risk is very low given his history and therefore could be good value at WR19 since your above projections seem very reasonable and maybe even a bit conservative.

 

[Grahamburn]

In 2013, if Harvin had been healthy, Seattle may have had a slight bump in their passing numbers. I doubt it would have been significant though.

And I think this sums up the difference in our opinions.

Fair enough. Fast forward to 2014. Golden Tate is gone. Sidney Rice is gone. How much upward projection does the Seattle passing offense have?

Sidney Rice isn't gone, though who knows if he will ever regain his top form. (And, by the way, Turbin isn't gone, either.)

Harvin is an elite talent at WR. Baldwin and Kearse are both underrated; Baldwin is a solid #2 and Kearse is a solid #3/#4 (with Rice being the other). And Richardson offers great potential. At TE, Zach Miller is average, but IMO Willson has great potential.

I haven't projected Seattle in depth yet, but I will be projecting a non-trivial increase in passing yardage.

My apologies. I thought both of them had been released.

Wilson is a great player. It will be interesting to see how/if Seattle alters their offensive philosophy for this season.

 

[biju]

In 2013, if Harvin had been healthy, Seattle may have had a slight bump in their passing numbers. I doubt it would have been significant though.

And I think this sums up the difference in our opinions.

Fair enough. Fast forward to 2014. Golden Tate is gone. Sidney Rice is gone. How much upward projection does the Seattle passing offense have?

Sidney Rice isn't gone, though who knows if he will ever regain his top form. (And, by the way, Turbin isn't gone, either.)

Harvin is an elite talent at WR. Baldwin and Kearse are both underrated; Baldwin is a solid #2 and Kearse is a solid #3/#4 (with Rice being the other). And Richardson offers great potential. At TE, Zach Miller is average, but IMO Willson has great potential.

I haven't projected Seattle in depth yet, but I will be projecting a non-trivial increase in passing yardage.

My apologies. I thought both of them had been released.

Wilson is a great player. It will be interesting to see how/if Seattle alters their offensive philosophy for this season.

I don't think they will change their philosophy until it becomes necessary, which (barring injury) will likely not be 2014. But I do believe the time is coming where Lynch will not be on the team and they will shift their focus to a more pass-happy system. I think people forget that Seattle once courted Peyton Manning to play for them--they aren't as locked into a run-heavy system as one might assume. When behind they have allowed Wilson to use more of the playbook and have had success airing the ball out (e.g. Atlanta in the 2012 playoffs; Houston in week 4 of 2013), so I don't think they aren't capable of doing so--it's just situation and personnel that dictates what they are doing today.

 

[Adam Harstad]

You'll find me in several old Gore and Bush threads downplaying their injury risk. I expect all RBs to succumb to injury. WRs less so, but I've defended Calvin Johnson and others in the past. I realize I'm being somewhat of a hypocrite here, but in today's head injury averse NFL Percy's previous migraine issues in addition to the recent concussion problems give me some pause.

The migraines are a non-issue. Harvin has sleep apnea. For those unfamiliar with sleep apnea, basically, sufferers will stop breathing entirely for anywhere from 10 seconds to several minutes. These pauses will happen 5-30 times an hour. Each pause rouses the sufferer from his sleep until breathing resumes normally. The end result is that it's impossible for a sufferer to get an uninterrupted night's sleep, which causes all sorts of crazy daytime symptoms from the chronic fatigue. For Harvin, those symptoms manifested in chronic migraines that plagued him for years. That wasn't from a head injury, it's because he wasn't getting any sleep. Eventually, the lack of sleep got so severe that Percy Harvin passed out at a team practice, which is how he finally got diagnosed.

Percy Harvin now reportedly sleeps with a CPAP machine, which is a mask he wears over his nose which creates enough air pressure to force his airways open at all times. This eliminates the pauses in breathing and allows sufferers to sleep normally. Since his diagnosis, Harvin no longer suffers from chronic fatigue and his migraines have resolved. In short, Harvin's migraines are a non-issue. He couldn't sleep, so he got migraines. Now he can, so he doesn't. They aren't a "head injury" for the NFL to be concerned about.

Harvin did get one concussion last year, which resolved completely in time for him to compete in the Super Bowl. Obviously the ideal number of concussions is zero, but one concussion which clearly resolved in a timely manner is the next best thing. Lots of players have had a single (known) concussion in their careers without raising any hue and cry. LeSean McCoy had a concussion so severe it kept him out an entire month in 2012, and yet people still value him as a top-5 dynasty asset.

Again, I'm not going to say that Percy Harvin is without risk entirely, but I do think concern over his injury history is overblown. I'm much more worried about how he'll fit into Seattle's game plans.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The fact remains that Harvin, despite being in the league for a pretty good sample size, for one reason or another, hasn't put in an elite fantasy season.

What is your definition of an elite season? In Harvin's SECOND best season, which has been largely overlooked in this thread because he was playing even better the next year before he got hurt, he outscored Julio Jones' best seasons and nearly matched Dez Bryant's best season (matched in yards but had 4 fewer TDs).

 

[Sabertooth]

I guess he did finish 7th in 2011. I don't know if 7th is elite or not. That's pretty good. Appears to be a bit of an outlier though. We'll see. Like I said, I'm not banking on him as more than an upside WR3. I guess that puts him about 25th on my list. Maybe a bit higher. Right in there with Michael Floyd, Roddy White and Torrey Smith. I think that's about right.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I guess he did finish 7th in 2011. I don't know if 7th is elite or not. That's pretty good. Appears to be a bit of an outlier though. We'll see. Like I said, I'm not banking on him as more than an upside WR3. I guess that puts him about 25th on my list. Maybe a bit higher. Right in there with Michael Floyd, Roddy White and Torrey Smith. I think that's about right.

The 7th place finish wasn't an outlier. He was a fantasy WR2 in each of the prior two seasons, and he was performing even better (top 3) the following year until he sprained his ankle.

If Percy Harvin finishes as WR25 this year, it will literally be the least valuable fantasy season of his entire career in a season where he actually played.

 

[rdrouyn]

I guess this is the place to plug in my projections for the Seahawks:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=707998

Basically projecting Harvin for 1100 total yards, 8 total TD, 1 Return TD on 78 catches and 20 rushes. This is a very conservative projection IMO, and it would have been a WR14 finish last year. Considering his current ADP of WR18, i think he is a value.

 

[Sabertooth]

I guess this is the place to plug in my projections for the Seahawks:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=707998

Basically projecting Harvin for 1100 total yards, 8 total TD, 1 Return TD on 78 catches and 20 rushes. This is a very conservative projection IMO, and it would have been a WR14 finish last year. Considering his current ADP of WR18, i think he is a value.

I think it's a good projection. But remember you are projecting a full 16 games there. So on a ppg basis this puts him around 22nd or 23rd. Which is about where people are ranking him. Drafting him at 18 is probably over-drafting him a bit but at that point you are picking preference. Couple that with the fact that he has only played a full season once in his career, and you have a WR3. He's got serious upside in a given week, but then...so does Welker.

 

[rdrouyn]

I guess this is the place to plug in my projections for the Seahawks:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=707998

Basically projecting Harvin for 1100 total yards, 8 total TD, 1 Return TD on 78 catches and 20 rushes. This is a very conservative projection IMO, and it would have been a WR14 finish last year. Considering his current ADP of WR18, i think he is a value.

I think it's a good projection. But remember you are projecting a full 16 games there. So on a ppg basis this puts him around 22nd or 23rd. Which is about where people are ranking him. Drafting him at 18 is probably over-drafting him a bit but at that point you are picking preference. Couple that with the fact that he has only played a full season once in his career, and you have a WR3. He's got serious upside in a given week, but then...so does Welker.

At that point in the draft every wide receiver that has WR1 upside has an injury history, I rather go with the younger WR who is more likely to be on the upswing and more likely to bounce back from injuries.

 

[georg013]

Rotoworld blurbs are kind of like horoscopes. If they say something good about YOUR guy, it's gospel. If they say something to the contrary, it's speculation.

Nothing rotoworld posts is gospel. I don't know who told you that...maybe rotoworld?

Figurative language not your thing? Ok, I'll be more literal. When Rotoworld posts something that is favorable for an owner, they tend to believe it as truth and plaster it all over forums. When Rotoworld posts something that goes against an owner's wishful thinking, they complain about Rotoworld's lack of knowledge. Hope that helps buddy!

 

[Sabertooth]

I guess this is the place to plug in my projections for the Seahawks:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=707998

Basically projecting Harvin for 1100 total yards, 8 total TD, 1 Return TD on 78 catches and 20 rushes. This is a very conservative projection IMO, and it would have been a WR14 finish last year. Considering his current ADP of WR18, i think he is a value.

I think it's a good projection. But remember you are projecting a full 16 games there. So on a ppg basis this puts him around 22nd or 23rd. Which is about where people are ranking him. Drafting him at 18 is probably over-drafting him a bit but at that point you are picking preference. Couple that with the fact that he has only played a full season once in his career, and you have a WR3. He's got serious upside in a given week, but then...so does Welker.

At that point in the draft every wide receiver that has WR1 upside has an injury history, I rather go with the younger WR who is more likely to be on the upswing and more likely to bounce back from injuries.

True, but Harvin just turned 26.

 

[cstu]

I guess this is the place to plug in my projections for the Seahawks:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=707998

Basically projecting Harvin for 1100 total yards, 8 total TD, 1 Return TD on 78 catches and 20 rushes. This is a very conservative projection IMO, and it would have been a WR14 finish last year. Considering his current ADP of WR18, i think he is a value.

I think it's a good projection. But remember you are projecting a full 16 games there. So on a ppg basis this puts him around 22nd or 23rd. Which is about where people are ranking him. Drafting him at 18 is probably over-drafting him a bit but at that point you are picking preference. Couple that with the fact that he has only played a full season once in his career, and you have a WR3. He's got serious upside in a given week, but then...so does Welker.

At that point in the draft every wide receiver that has WR1 upside has an injury history, I rather go with the younger WR who is more likely to be on the upswing and more likely to bounce back from injuries.

True, but Harvin just turned 26.

Seems like he's been around forever but he's the same age as AJ Green and Antonio Brown and a little younger than DT.

 

[Bob Magaw]

In terms of what SEA gave up to get him, both in traded picks and paying him top 5 WR money, it would be puzzling to me if they only throw it to Harvin a few times a game. Aside from Wilson, when it comes to the SEA skill position players, Lynch and Harvin stand out as far as intersection of talent/track record. Harvin could be a big part of the offense and the featured WR, and Lynch could still get all his carries. Maybe they have less occasion to throw to WRs like Kearse and don't spread it around as much.

When they weren't really featuring a WR last year, Harvin wasn't available, or they might have. SEA is run heavy, but there could still be room within that framework for Harvin to shine (Tate left in free agency, too). Sometimes seeming tendencies (spreading the ball around to the WRs) could be a case of being dictated by a previous situation that is no longer as relevant or applicable.

OC Bevell certainly put Harvin to good use in MIN. I'm not sure if his 2012-2013 injuries are of a degenerative nature, but he did only miss three games in his first three years.

 

[Adam Harstad]

OC Bevell certainly put Harvin to good use in MIN. I'm not sure if his 2012-2013 injuries are of a degenerative nature, but he did only miss three games in his first three years.

And all three missed games were due to a migraine issue that has since been solved. Harvin hasn't had a migraine in 3 years.

I was looking at player contracts earlier this afternoon, and Harvin's contract actually stands out more than I thought. His APY figure of $12.85m stands as the third-highest in the league behind only the ridiculous, curve-destroying contracts of Fitzgerald and Calvin. Now, Harvin sacrificed some other value in order to get that high APY figure- he got about half of the full guarantees that Mike Wallace got, for instance. Both had similar values over the first 3 years ($36m for Harvin, $37m for Wallace), which is a win for Harvin since he still had a year left on his old deal. Either way, Harvin's contract is definitely among the top 5 at his position.

Looking at the rest of the top contracts at the WR position... there are seven receivers earning at least $10m APY (Calvin, Fitz, Harvin, Wallace, Bowe, VJax, Marshall). Looking at the three years before each of those seven receivers signed their $10m/y contracts, they were clearly outside receivers. In 2009, VJax ran 27% of his routes from the slot, which stands as the only time any of the other receivers spent more than a quarter of their snaps in the slot. In the three years before signing his contract, Harvin spent 70%, 63%, and 60% of his snaps running routes from the slot. That's an important distinction because the league has clearly signaled that slot WRs are not as valuable as outside receivers. Victor Cruz and Wes Welker both got deals well below what most people anticipated based on their production- $8.6m APY for Cruz, $6m APY for Welker. In the context of the league's best slot receivers, Percy Harvin's contract stands out every bit as much as Fitzgerald or Calvin's contracts stand out among outside receivers. Now, maybe you could argue that OC Bevell doesn't plan on using Harvin in the slot... but the highest slot percentage of Harvin's entire career came in the year he played for Bevell, back in 2009. He ran 89% of his plays out of the slot.

Basically, either Seattle grossly misjudged the market for slot receivers, or they plan on using Harvin outside a lot more than he has been historically, or they didn't care about the market and thought Harvin was worth it, anyway. Either way, in light of Graham's recent contract dispute (and in light of him settling on a $10m APY deal), it's interesting to note that Percy Harvin is basically a slot receiver who is getting paid like an elite outside receiver, something not even Jimmy Graham could manage to pull off.

 

[FF Ninja]

Maybe I missed it, but what are Harvin fans predicting for usage? His stats have always been padded by close to 100/1 rushing, which I have a hard time counting on with a new team. I do agree that there's a good chance he's used as an outside receiver more, which should improve his YPR (while decreasing his catch rate), but I have a hard time predicting more than 120 targets in this offense. I also think Rice is a very good outside option when healthy.

My current guess for Harvin is:

120 targets x 68% = 81.6 rec x 13 ypr = 1060 yds 7 TD

12 rush x 5 ypc = 60 yds 0 TD

Mid level WR2. Roughly around his current ADP. I don't think he's injury prone so no need to discount him there, so I feel like he's one of those guys that is valued just right by his ADP. Should have a pretty high floor (I'd be shocked if he got less than 100 targets) and with some upside if they give him more carries or decide to pass more than last year.

 

[Tau837]

Maybe I missed it, but what are Harvin fans predicting for usage? His stats have always been padded by close to 100/1 rushing, which I have a hard time counting on with a new team. I do agree that there's a good chance he's used as an outside receiver more, which should improve his YPR (while decreasing his catch rate), but I have a hard time predicting more than 120 targets in this offense. I also think Rice is a very good outside option when healthy.

My current guess for Harvin is:

120 targets x 68% = 81.6 rec x 13 ypr = 1060 yds 7 TD

12 rush x 5 ypc = 60 yds 0 TD

Mid level WR2. Roughly around his current ADP. I don't think he's injury prone so no need to discount him there, so I feel like he's one of those guys that is valued just right by his ADP. Should have a pretty high floor (I'd be shocked if he got less than 100 targets) and with some upside if they give him more carries or decide to pass more than last year.

You are way too low on rushing attempts IMO. After hardly playing all season, he played 48 snaps in the playoffs. During those snaps, he was officially targeted 7 times, catching 4 passes and drawing one defensive penalty, and he had 3 carries for 54 yards. Those carries went for 9, 15, and 30 yards.

If healthy, I think he will average at least 2 carries per game. That could mean 200+ rushing yards. And I doubt he would carry the ball that often with zero rushing TDs.

 

[rdrouyn]

I think no more than 20-30 carries but they'll def use him in sweep plays since he is so effective at those. A couple of those a game, you get about 20ish carries.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Maybe I missed it, but what are Harvin fans predicting for usage? His stats have always been padded by close to 100/1 rushing, which I have a hard time counting on with a new team. I do agree that there's a good chance he's used as an outside receiver more, which should improve his YPR (while decreasing his catch rate), but I have a hard time predicting more than 120 targets in this offense. I also think Rice is a very good outside option when healthy.

My current guess for Harvin is:

120 targets x 68% = 81.6 rec x 13 ypr = 1060 yds 7 TD

12 rush x 5 ypc = 60 yds 0 TD

Mid level WR2. Roughly around his current ADP. I don't think he's injury prone so no need to discount him there, so I feel like he's one of those guys that is valued just right by his ADP. Should have a pretty high floor (I'd be shocked if he got less than 100 targets) and with some upside if they give him more carries or decide to pass more than last year.

I actually think I'm a touch less optimistic on Harvin's receiving numbers, but I agree with JWB that you're badly underrating Harvin's rushing- both the attempts and the yards per attempt. Percy Harvin almost topped those yardage numbers last year. He averages 6.6 yards per attempt for his career.

 

[LawFitz]

Percy Harvin - WR - Seahawks

Percy Harvin is penciled in as the Seahawks kickoff returner.

Harvin won't be a volume receiver in the Seahawks' run-first scheme and committee-style passing attack. So unleashing his unique running skills as a returner (28.1 yards, five touchdowns on 115 career kickoff returns) makes plenty of sense for Pete Carroll. The problem for fantasy owners in standard leagues is that Harvin will be exposing his fragile body to hits on plays we won't even be getting points for.

Source: Seattle Times Jul 14 - 7:51 AM

I hope everyone is aware that the bulk of that post is pure rotoworld speculation. Downgrading Percy on asssumptions of rotoworld is very bad policy. Harvin is the single most dynamic player on that offense. Period. They will get the ball in his hands more than any other WR on that team, without a doubt, and not just suicidal kick returns. Man I hate cut and paste rotoworld....

You should love them if you like Harvin. Blurbs like this are exactly what you want to see if you want to get him at good value.

 

[FF Ninja]

Maybe I missed it, but what are Harvin fans predicting for usage? His stats have always been padded by close to 100/1 rushing, which I have a hard time counting on with a new team. I do agree that there's a good chance he's used as an outside receiver more, which should improve his YPR (while decreasing his catch rate), but I have a hard time predicting more than 120 targets in this offense. I also think Rice is a very good outside option when healthy.

My current guess for Harvin is:

120 targets x 68% = 81.6 rec x 13 ypr = 1060 yds 7 TD

12 rush x 5 ypc = 60 yds 0 TD

Mid level WR2. Roughly around his current ADP. I don't think he's injury prone so no need to discount him there, so I feel like he's one of those guys that is valued just right by his ADP. Should have a pretty high floor (I'd be shocked if he got less than 100 targets) and with some upside if they give him more carries or decide to pass more than last year.

You are way too low on rushing attempts IMO. After hardly playing all season, he played 48 snaps in the playoffs. During those snaps, he was officially targeted 7 times, catching 4 passes and drawing one defensive penalty, and he had 3 carries for 54 yards. Those carries went for 9, 15, and 30 yards.

If healthy, I think he will average at least 2 carries per game. That could mean 200+ rushing yards. And I doubt he would carry the ball that often with zero rushing TDs.

1 TD/32 carries is a pretty good conversion rate for any RB, much less a guy who will probably get no carries in the red zone. I think 1 TD is optimistic.

I don't think last year's sample size or game situation is good enough to project his carries next season. I'm not surprised they used their very expensive toy in the running game during the playoffs. You put all your chips on the table there. But I doubt he sees a lot of action as a runner during the regular season.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Maybe I missed it, but what are Harvin fans predicting for usage? His stats have always been padded by close to 100/1 rushing, which I have a hard time counting on with a new team. I do agree that there's a good chance he's used as an outside receiver more, which should improve his YPR (while decreasing his catch rate), but I have a hard time predicting more than 120 targets in this offense. I also think Rice is a very good outside option when healthy.

My current guess for Harvin is:

120 targets x 68% = 81.6 rec x 13 ypr = 1060 yds 7 TD

12 rush x 5 ypc = 60 yds 0 TD

Mid level WR2. Roughly around his current ADP. I don't think he's injury prone so no need to discount him there, so I feel like he's one of those guys that is valued just right by his ADP. Should have a pretty high floor (I'd be shocked if he got less than 100 targets) and with some upside if they give him more carries or decide to pass more than last year.

You are way too low on rushing attempts IMO. After hardly playing all season, he played 48 snaps in the playoffs. During those snaps, he was officially targeted 7 times, catching 4 passes and drawing one defensive penalty, and he had 3 carries for 54 yards. Those carries went for 9, 15, and 30 yards.

If healthy, I think he will average at least 2 carries per game. That could mean 200+ rushing yards. And I doubt he would carry the ball that often with zero rushing TDs.

1 TD/32 carries is a pretty good conversion rate for any RB, much less a guy who will probably get no carries in the red zone. I think 1 TD is optimistic.

I don't think last year's sample size or game situation is good enough to project his carries next season. I'm not surprised they used their very expensive toy in the running game during the playoffs. You put all your chips on the table there. But I doubt he sees a lot of action as a runner during the regular season.

FWIW, barring this past season that he missed to injury, Percy Harvin has only failed to score a rushing TD in one season since he graduated high school nearly a decade ago. That was his rookie year in 2009

 

[Adam Harstad]

1 TD/32 carries is a pretty good conversion rate for any RB, much less a guy who will probably get no carries in the red zone. I think 1 TD is optimistic.

Why would he get no carries in the red zone? He's got 24 since he entered the league, including several straight-up short-yardage carries at the goal line. The last season he played with Bevell as his OC, he had 6 red-zone carries on 15 attempts.

League-wide (and excluding QBs), the NFL average was about 140 rushing yards for every TD last season. If you think Harvin is only going to get 60 rushing yards, I can see not projecting a TD, but for everyone who is projecting 150-200 rushing yards, I think the TD is much more likely than not.

 

[cstu]

Maybe I missed it, but what are Harvin fans predicting for usage? His stats have always been padded by close to 100/1 rushing, which I have a hard time counting on with a new team. I do agree that there's a good chance he's used as an outside receiver more, which should improve his YPR (while decreasing his catch rate), but I have a hard time predicting more than 120 targets in this offense. I also think Rice is a very good outside option when healthy.

My current guess for Harvin is:

120 targets x 68% = 81.6 rec x 13 ypr = 1060 yds 7 TD

12 rush x 5 ypc = 60 yds 0 TD

Mid level WR2. Roughly around his current ADP. I don't think he's injury prone so no need to discount him there, so I feel like he's one of those guys that is valued just right by his ADP. Should have a pretty high floor (I'd be shocked if he got less than 100 targets) and with some upside if they give him more carries or decide to pass more than last year.

You are way too low on rushing attempts IMO. After hardly playing all season, he played 48 snaps in the playoffs. During those snaps, he was officially targeted 7 times, catching 4 passes and drawing one defensive penalty, and he had 3 carries for 54 yards. Those carries went for 9, 15, and 30 yards.

If healthy, I think he will average at least 2 carries per game. That could mean 200+ rushing yards. And I doubt he would carry the ball that often with zero rushing TDs.

1 TD/32 carries is a pretty good conversion rate for any RB, much less a guy who will probably get no carries in the red zone. I think 1 TD is optimistic.

I don't think last year's sample size or game situation is good enough to project his carries next season. I'm not surprised they used their very expensive toy in the running game during the playoffs. You put all your chips on the table there. But I doubt he sees a lot of action as a runner during the regular season.

Since week 9 of his rookie year, Harvin has only had less than 2 carries in a game 6 times. He's also averaged over 2 carries per game started in his career.

The way Harvin is used in the running game I don't think he's any more likely to be injured than catching a pass.

 

[rdrouyn]

Maybe I missed it, but what are Harvin fans predicting for usage? His stats have always been padded by close to 100/1 rushing, which I have a hard time counting on with a new team. I do agree that there's a good chance he's used as an outside receiver more, which should improve his YPR (while decreasing his catch rate), but I have a hard time predicting more than 120 targets in this offense. I also think Rice is a very good outside option when healthy.

My current guess for Harvin is:

120 targets x 68% = 81.6 rec x 13 ypr = 1060 yds 7 TD

12 rush x 5 ypc = 60 yds 0 TD

Mid level WR2. Roughly around his current ADP. I don't think he's injury prone so no need to discount him there, so I feel like he's one of those guys that is valued just right by his ADP. Should have a pretty high floor (I'd be shocked if he got less than 100 targets) and with some upside if they give him more carries or decide to pass more than last year.

You are way too low on rushing attempts IMO. After hardly playing all season, he played 48 snaps in the playoffs. During those snaps, he was officially targeted 7 times, catching 4 passes and drawing one defensive penalty, and he had 3 carries for 54 yards. Those carries went for 9, 15, and 30 yards.

If healthy, I think he will average at least 2 carries per game. That could mean 200+ rushing yards. And I doubt he would carry the ball that often with zero rushing TDs.

1 TD/32 carries is a pretty good conversion rate for any RB, much less a guy who will probably get no carries in the red zone. I think 1 TD is optimistic.

I don't think last year's sample size or game situation is good enough to project his carries next season. I'm not surprised they used their very expensive toy in the running game during the playoffs. You put all your chips on the table there. But I doubt he sees a lot of action as a runner during the regular season.

That makes sense, but only up to a certain point. Seattle has a pretty difficult schedule, so they arent going to hold back a healthy Percy Harvin in close games. Part of including him in the offense is taking advantage of his ability to move around the field and keep the defense off balance. I think 1.5 carries a game is reasonable and is not the type of workload that run him to the ground.