Has John Fox EVER drafted a RB that was a longterm RB1 (1 Viewer)

[Lash]

there was discussion on Montee Ball/ Ronnie Hillman in Bloom's post draft 100 thread so i posted this below but decided it strayed too far off topic so starting another thread:

John Fox is a good coach for the ground game but IMO not for the fantasy ground game longterm. He can provide you with an underrated vet for a few-games-at-a-time stretch but longterm his grades are below.

all RBs listed were pick 3.03 or earlier

If it takes Vaccaro a year to start on that defense something went terribly wrong.

Harper sits? Im sure he'll be in nickel and dime, but base?

Harper sits (and comes in on passing situations) or is cut.

Edit: And why do we (not just you Sig, lots do this) care if Fox plays Ball this year when we're considering these guys for dynasty purposes?

because just like w Hillman, the longer it takes to get on the field, the more likely someone will usurp your shot for a big role

Has there EVER been a drafted RB by Fox who turned out to be a longterm RB1?

I am speaking in fantasy terms only (not true real-life value)

DeShaun Foster pick 2.02 - had his moments

Eric Shelton pick 2.22 - meh

DeAngelo Williams pick 1.27 - you almost had to have a plan on how to ruin this guy's career (step one: draft him rd one but dont play him, step two: when he finally is ready to "earn" snaps, draft another rd 1 rb, step three dont trade him when contract up, etc)

Johnathan Stewart pick 1.13 - you almost had to have a plan on how to ruin this guy's career part deux

Ronnie Hillman pick 3.03 - looks the part, but Ronnie don't jump-cut in the hole when there is no one in the hole on 2nd and short and 3rd and short in playoff game or that tells the staff to draft...

Montee Ball pick 2.26 - we'll see

 

[Adam Harstad]

there was discussion on Montee Ball/ Ronnie Hillman in Bloom's post draft 100 thread so i posted this below but decided it strayed too far off topic so starting another thread:

John Fox is a good coach for the ground game but IMO not for the fantasy ground game longterm. He can provide you with an underrated vet for a few-games-at-a-time stretch but longterm his grades are below.

all RBs listed were pick 3.03 or earlier

If it takes Vaccaro a year to start on that defense something went terribly wrong.

Harper sits? Im sure he'll be in nickel and dime, but base?

Harper sits (and comes in on passing situations) or is cut.

Edit: And why do we (not just you Sig, lots do this) care if Fox plays Ball this year when we're considering these guys for dynasty purposes?

because just like w Hillman, the longer it takes to get on the field, the more likely someone will usurp your shot for a big role

Has there EVER been a drafted RB by Fox who turned out to be a longterm RB1?

I am speaking in fantasy terms only (not true real-life value)

DeShaun Foster pick 2.02 - had his moments

Eric Shelton pick 2.22 - meh

DeAngelo Williams pick 1.27 - you almost had to have a plan on how to ruin this guy's career (step one: draft him rd one but dont play him, step two: when he finally is ready to "earn" snaps, draft another rd 1 rb, step three dont trade him when contract up, etc)

Johnathan Stewart pick 1.13 - you almost had to have a plan on how to ruin this guy's career part deux

Ronnie Hillman pick 3.03 - looks the part, but Ronnie don't jump-cut in the hole when there is no one in the hole on 2nd and short and 3rd and short in playoff game or that tells the staff to draft...

Montee Ball pick 2.26 - we'll see

It's interesting, but I don't think it's particularly meaningful. For one thing, John Fox is not a general manager, and has no real designs on control of the front office. He's never drafted an RB, period. Marty Hurney was the guy behind Stephen Davis, DeShaun Foster, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and the like. John Elway and (briefly) Brian Xanders were the guys who brought in McGahee, Hillman, and Ball. Moreno was inherited. If his GM brought in untalented RBs, that's hard to pin on Fox. If his GM spent $60+ million signing multiple stud RBs, that's hard to pin on Fox. Moreover, if Hurney was an idiot, that's hard to pin on Elway.

For another, Fox has presided over a lot of RB1 seasons. Stephen Davis was a stud in 2003, but then injuries and age ended his career- hard to blame his lack of longevity on Fox. DeAngelo and Stewart both had top-12 seasons, but injuries and the presence of the other has prevented either from sustaining it. Again, that's hard to pin on Fox- if my GM gave me two $30 million dollar RBs, I'd use both of them, too. Either Willis McGahee or Knowshon Moreno could have been an RB1 last season if one had remained healthy and starting the whole year, and the fact that neither would sustain it isn't really Fox's fault, either- he's not responsible for McGahee being the 2nd oldest back in the league anymore than he's responsible for Moreno being a bust he inherited from the previous regime. Heck, it's hard to know how much credit we should be giving Fox for anything the offense does, anyway, given how much control Manning has over it.

Meanwhile, Ted Marchibroda and Lindy Infante, by your definition, managed to produce a long-term stud. But only because they happened to be in the right place at the right time when their organization drafted Marshall Faulk. It's not a comment on them as coaches, it's a comment on the quality of talent they were given to work with.

As I said, the history is interesting, but I don't think it provides meaningful comparisons when projecting Montee Ball going forward. Montee Ball is not a 30-year old Davis or McGahee. He might be a bust like Foster or Moreno, or he might be a stud like Williams or Stewart (presumably if he is, Elway won't spend big on acquiring another stud RB, too, because John Elway is most certainly not Marty Hurney). All of this isn't really up to John Fox, though- it's strictly up to Montee Ball. As long as Montee Ball holds up his end of the deal and proves talented enough to live up to his draft pick, John Fox will certainly keep providing him with opportunities to put up RB1 production.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

t's interesting, but I don't think it's particularly meaningful. For one thing, John Fox is not a general manager, and has no real designs on control of the front office. He's never drafted an RB, period. Marty Hurney was the guy behind Stephen Davis, DeShaun Foster, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and the like. John Elway and (briefly) Brian Xanders were the guys who brought in McGahee, Hillman, and Ball. Moreno was inherited. If his GM brought in untalented RBs, that's hard to pin on Fox. If his GM spent $60+ million signing multiple stud RBs, that's hard to pin on Fox. Moreover, if Hurney was an idiot, that's hard to pin on Elway.

I'm no expert on front office operations, but I've got to imagine that the coach is at least consulted in some manner over moves like this. Particularly with the drafting of Stewart. Aren't coaches usually front and center in the "war room" alongside the GM when creating and managing the draft board/picks?

ETA: We constantly hear about players being "his guy" or "not his guy" in the context of whether or not the coach was around when that player was brought in. Are we suddenly just throwing that out the window and removing it from the 1000 discussions it was used in prior to this one?

 

[Lash]

thanks for the background

i didn't know how much influence (or lack thereof) that Fox had on the decision-making process behind the picks

maybe i latched onto the fact that DeWill was clearly better than his predecessor and couldn't see the field (This is solely Fox, no GM to blame there), and that may have pushed his GMs into thinking subconsciously that maybe they need to get another try at that position in the next draft or two

so it is a never ending cycle, Hillman just the latest victim

 

[BigJim®]

This does seem like a trend. I was targeting Ball as undervalued heading into the NFL draft, but have to agree there is a maddening track record of Fox misusing young RBs, with a seemingly senile turnstile amassing of talent to be misused. I'm still suffering consequences of drafting Deangelo/Stewart in rookie drafts of one dynasty league. Both of those guys should have been top 10 fantasy producers for years.

 

[jonboltz]

2007 is really the only year you can point to and say that Fox didn't play the best RB, regardless of age/experience.

 

[Adam Harstad]

t's interesting, but I don't think it's particularly meaningful. For one thing, John Fox is not a general manager, and has no real designs on control of the front office. He's never drafted an RB, period. Marty Hurney was the guy behind Stephen Davis, DeShaun Foster, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and the like. John Elway and (briefly) Brian Xanders were the guys who brought in McGahee, Hillman, and Ball. Moreno was inherited. If his GM brought in untalented RBs, that's hard to pin on Fox. If his GM spent $60+ million signing multiple stud RBs, that's hard to pin on Fox. Moreover, if Hurney was an idiot, that's hard to pin on Elway.

I'm no expert on front office operations, but I've got to imagine that the coach is at least consulted in some manner over moves like this. Particularly with the drafting of Stewart. Aren't coaches usually front and center in the "war room" alongside the GM when creating and managing the draft board/picks? ETA: We constantly hear about players being "his guy" or "not his guy" in the context of whether or not the coach was around when that player was brought in. Are we suddenly just throwing that out the window and removing it from the 1000 discussions it was used in prior to this one?

I'm sure Hurney involved Fox in the process, but I don't think any of us knows how much weight that carried. Maybe he asked Fox whether he wanted an RB, but Fox didn't expect to get one in the first. Maybe Hurney asked what Fox thought of Stewart, and Fox liked him, but wanted another position more. Maybe Fox pounded the table and threatened to resign if Hurney didn't get that kid from Oregon. I don't think we'll ever know for sure what Fox wanted or preferred or told Hurney. Heck, we don't even know how much Fox himself knew about Stewart- how much do head coaches typically scout college players? How much do they just rely on the team's scouting department? Did Fox scout everyone, or was he presented with a list of players the team was considering and asked for opinions? He was no doubt involved, but so were dozens of other characters- coordinators, position coaches, and scouts. The whole point is that I have no idea at all what went down, so I tend to default back to job descriptions. Hurney was the GM, Hurney was responsible for roster construction, and even if Fox had an RB fetish, Hurney was the guy responsible for putting the needs of the Panthers over the hypothetical wants of their coach. I think we can still say "Stewart was one of Fox's guys" (because GMs generally don't get coaches players they flat out don't want or like) while simultaneously maintaining that Fox wasn't responsible for Carolina drafting Stewart. I don't think the two positions are mutually incompatible. I think it was Elway who decided that the Denver Broncos would be best off selecting an RB in the second, but I think the chances are good that Fox liked the RB he selected.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

there was discussion on Montee Ball/ Ronnie Hillman in Bloom's post draft 100 thread so i posted this below but decided it strayed too far off topic so starting another thread:

John Fox is a good coach for the ground game but IMO not for the fantasy ground game longterm. He can provide you with an underrated vet for a few-games-at-a-time stretch but longterm his grades are below.

all RBs listed were pick 3.03 or earlier

If it takes Vaccaro a year to start on that defense something went terribly wrong.

Harper sits? Im sure he'll be in nickel and dime, but base?

Harper sits (and comes in on passing situations) or is cut.

Edit: And why do we (not just you Sig, lots do this) care if Fox plays Ball this year when we're considering these guys for dynasty purposes?

because just like w Hillman, the longer it takes to get on the field, the more likely someone will usurp your shot for a big role

Has there EVER been a drafted RB by Fox who turned out to be a longterm RB1?

I am speaking in fantasy terms only (not true real-life value)

DeShaun Foster pick 2.02 - had his moments

Eric Shelton pick 2.22 - meh

DeAngelo Williams pick 1.27 - you almost had to have a plan on how to ruin this guy's career (step one: draft him rd one but dont play him, step two: when he finally is ready to "earn" snaps, draft another rd 1 rb, step three dont trade him when contract up, etc)

Johnathan Stewart pick 1.13 - you almost had to have a plan on how to ruin this guy's career part deux

Ronnie Hillman pick 3.03 - looks the part, but Ronnie don't jump-cut in the hole when there is no one in the hole on 2nd and short and 3rd and short in playoff game or that tells the staff to draft...

Montee Ball pick 2.26 - we'll see

It's interesting, but I don't think it's particularly meaningful. For one thing, John Fox is not a general manager, and has no real designs on control of the front office. He's never drafted an RB, period. Marty Hurney was the guy behind Stephen Davis, DeShaun Foster, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and the like. John Elway and (briefly) Brian Xanders were the guys who brought in McGahee, Hillman, and Ball. Moreno was inherited. If his GM brought in untalented RBs, that's hard to pin on Fox. If his GM spent $60+ million signing multiple stud RBs, that's hard to pin on Fox. Moreover, if Hurney was an idiot, that's hard to pin on Elway.

For another, Fox has presided over a lot of RB1 seasons. Stephen Davis was a stud in 2003, but then injuries and age ended his career- hard to blame his lack of longevity on Fox. DeAngelo and Stewart both had top-12 seasons, but injuries and the presence of the other has prevented either from sustaining it. Again, that's hard to pin on Fox- if my GM gave me two $30 million dollar RBs, I'd use both of them, too. Either Willis McGahee or Knowshon Moreno could have been an RB1 last season if one had remained healthy and starting the whole year, and the fact that neither would sustain it isn't really Fox's fault, either- he's not responsible for McGahee being the 2nd oldest back in the league anymore than he's responsible for Moreno being a bust he inherited from the previous regime. Heck, it's hard to know how much credit we should be giving Fox for anything the offense does, anyway, given how much control Manning has over it.

Meanwhile, Ted Marchibroda and Lindy Infante, by your definition, managed to produce a long-term stud. But only because they happened to be in the right place at the right time when their organization drafted Marshall Faulk. It's not a comment on them as coaches, it's a comment on the quality of talent they were given to work with.

As I said, the history is interesting, but I don't think it provides meaningful comparisons when projecting Montee Ball going forward. Montee Ball is not a 30-year old Davis or McGahee. He might be a bust like Foster or Moreno, or he might be a stud like Williams or Stewart (presumably if he is, Elway won't spend big on acquiring another stud RB, too, because John Elway is most certainly not Marty Hurney). All of this isn't really up to John Fox, though- it's strictly up to Montee Ball. As long as Montee Ball holds up his end of the deal and proves talented enough to live up to his draft pick, John Fox will certainly keep providing him with opportunities to put up RB1 production.

OK Adam, but until things actually go the other way even like once while Fox is running the show then I'll stop believing. DeShaun Foster was held back, DeAngelo was held back, Stewart was held back, Ronnie Hillman was held back...you can say that those situations have nothing to do with this one but that's like saying someone who has been divorced 4 times is just unlucky...it takes two to tango and Fox is part of the equation. You can't pin it? Let me help...Fox has been the Head Coach in all of these situations and every time he plays the veterans. Now he could surprise us all and make Ball the lead back but I think history is a good indicator of the future.

Good luck being on staff SSOG

 

[Adam Harstad]

there was discussion on Montee Ball/ Ronnie Hillman in Bloom's post draft 100 thread so i posted this below but decided it strayed too far off topic so starting another thread:

John Fox is a good coach for the ground game but IMO not for the fantasy ground game longterm. He can provide you with an underrated vet for a few-games-at-a-time stretch but longterm his grades are below.

all RBs listed were pick 3.03 or earlier

If it takes Vaccaro a year to start on that defense something went terribly wrong.

Harper sits? Im sure he'll be in nickel and dime, but base?

Harper sits (and comes in on passing situations) or is cut.

Edit: And why do we (not just you Sig, lots do this) care if Fox plays Ball this year when we're considering these guys for dynasty purposes?

because just like w Hillman, the longer it takes to get on the field, the more likely someone will usurp your shot for a big role

Has there EVER been a drafted RB by Fox who turned out to be a longterm RB1?

I am speaking in fantasy terms only (not true real-life value)

DeShaun Foster pick 2.02 - had his moments

Eric Shelton pick 2.22 - meh

DeAngelo Williams pick 1.27 - you almost had to have a plan on how to ruin this guy's career (step one: draft him rd one but dont play him, step two: when he finally is ready to "earn" snaps, draft another rd 1 rb, step three dont trade him when contract up, etc)

Johnathan Stewart pick 1.13 - you almost had to have a plan on how to ruin this guy's career part deux

Ronnie Hillman pick 3.03 - looks the part, but Ronnie don't jump-cut in the hole when there is no one in the hole on 2nd and short and 3rd and short in playoff game or that tells the staff to draft...

Montee Ball pick 2.26 - we'll see

It's interesting, but I don't think it's particularly meaningful. For one thing, John Fox is not a general manager, and has no real designs on control of the front office. He's never drafted an RB, period. Marty Hurney was the guy behind Stephen Davis, DeShaun Foster, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and the like. John Elway and (briefly) Brian Xanders were the guys who brought in McGahee, Hillman, and Ball. Moreno was inherited. If his GM brought in untalented RBs, that's hard to pin on Fox. If his GM spent $60+ million signing multiple stud RBs, that's hard to pin on Fox. Moreover, if Hurney was an idiot, that's hard to pin on Elway.

For another, Fox has presided over a lot of RB1 seasons. Stephen Davis was a stud in 2003, but then injuries and age ended his career- hard to blame his lack of longevity on Fox. DeAngelo and Stewart both had top-12 seasons, but injuries and the presence of the other has prevented either from sustaining it. Again, that's hard to pin on Fox- if my GM gave me two $30 million dollar RBs, I'd use both of them, too. Either Willis McGahee or Knowshon Moreno could have been an RB1 last season if one had remained healthy and starting the whole year, and the fact that neither would sustain it isn't really Fox's fault, either- he's not responsible for McGahee being the 2nd oldest back in the league anymore than he's responsible for Moreno being a bust he inherited from the previous regime. Heck, it's hard to know how much credit we should be giving Fox for anything the offense does, anyway, given how much control Manning has over it.

Meanwhile, Ted Marchibroda and Lindy Infante, by your definition, managed to produce a long-term stud. But only because they happened to be in the right place at the right time when their organization drafted Marshall Faulk. It's not a comment on them as coaches, it's a comment on the quality of talent they were given to work with.

As I said, the history is interesting, but I don't think it provides meaningful comparisons when projecting Montee Ball going forward. Montee Ball is not a 30-year old Davis or McGahee. He might be a bust like Foster or Moreno, or he might be a stud like Williams or Stewart (presumably if he is, Elway won't spend big on acquiring another stud RB, too, because John Elway is most certainly not Marty Hurney). All of this isn't really up to John Fox, though- it's strictly up to Montee Ball. As long as Montee Ball holds up his end of the deal and proves talented enough to live up to his draft pick, John Fox will certainly keep providing him with opportunities to put up RB1 production.

OK Adam, but until things actually go the other way even like once while Fox is running the show then I'll stop believing. DeShaun Foster was held back, DeAngelo was held back, Stewart was held back, Ronnie Hillman was held back...you can say that those situations have nothing to do with this one but that's like saying someone who has been divorced 4 times is just unlucky...it takes two to tango and Fox is part of the equation. You can't pin it? Let me help...Fox has been the Head Coach in all of these situations and every time he plays the veterans. Now he could surprise us all and make Ball the lead back but I think history is a good indicator of the future.

Good luck being on staff SSOG

Thanks, MOP.

Personally, I think jonboltz hit it on the head. 2007 is the only year you can point to where Fox did not play his best back- and in 2007, there were no rookie RBs (it was a 2nd year DeAngelo Williams outperforming a 5th year DeShaun Foster). Rookie, veteran, talented, untalented, everything else in his entire career is very easily explained by "the better back got the carries", or even "if the rookie and the veteran are performing at exactly the same level, then Fox prefers the veteran". I don't think there's any grand conspiracy at play, I think it's mostly just a string of coincidences that look like a pattern in hindsight.

We'll see how things start playing out when camps come around. It's possible Ball gets ignored this year, especially if he doesn't dramatically improve in pass protection. I'm just saying, it's not like it's a foregone conclusion owing to the fact that John Fox secretly hates rookie RBs (even if he doesn't seem to mind playing rookies at other positions). If Ball's the best back on the roster, I'd expect Fox to use him the most.

 

[BassNBrew]

2005

DeShaun Foster 205 879 4.3 70 3 2 58.6 1 0 34

Stephen Davis 180 549 3.1 39 2 12 42.2 2 0 31

Davis got more carries per game. 4.3 ypc > 3.1 ypc

2004

Nick Goings 217 821 3.8 57 3 6 51.3 1 1 39

DeShaun Foster 59 255 4.3 71 1 2 63.8 0 0 13

Davis and Foster got hurt leaving Goings

 

[BassNBrew]

I won't be drafting Ball this year in re-draft just like I avoided WEEEEEEEEEEIIIIIIIIIII Hillman last year. Matter of fact, I'll probably target Hillman late in bb leagues.<br /><br />By the way, both Moreno and McGahee looked very good last year.

 

[jonboltz]

2005DeShaun Foster 205 879 4.3 70 3 2 58.6 1 0 34Stephen Davis 180 549 3.1 39 2 12 42.2 2 0 31Davis got more carries per game. 4.3 ypc > 3.1 ypc2004Nick Goings 217 821 3.8 57 3 6 51.3 1 1 39DeShaun Foster 59 255 4.3 71 1 2 63.8 0 0 13Davis and Foster got hurt leaving Goings

In 2005, he also didn't play the best back until late in the year -- but he did eventually come around to Foster, who was the clear starter the last 5-6 games. 2004 is meaningless, as their top two backs (Foster/Davis) both went to IR fairly soon.

 

[BigJim®]

2007 is really the only year you can point to and say that Fox didn't play the best RB, regardless of age/experience.

And yet oddly, despite the embarrassment of riches the Panthers have had, I can't think of a single season Fox used any RB other than 2008.