Has the draft elite QB strategy already jumped the shark? (1 Viewer)

[da_budman]

The problem with waiting on a QB is that you could have drafted Aaron Rodgers, Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins or Deshaun Watson. No one was going into their draft expecting to start Stroud as their QB1. Even if you waited until the 2nd tier of QBs, Dak and Burrow probably lost you weeks so far this season. Lawrence is borderline unrosterable. Sure if you hit on Tua or Herbert you came out ahead but that's like arguing drafting Pollard was a bad idea because you knew Brian Robinson was going to outperform him rounds later. Yeah its true, but its not predicatable.

The real reason people were drafting the top 3 (Allen, Mahomes, Hurts) was due to their floor not their upside. Which has proven to be mostly correct.

Bad logic. The problem with drafting Allen, Hurts, and Mahomes is they could get hurt as well. The only real difference is you have a top 2 draft pick invested in your injured player The rogers, cousins, Jones and watson owners have an 8th round or later pick tied up in theirs. I will take a team without an 8th round player or later ( who probably has a decent backup over a team missing its 1st or 2nd round pick any day. You cant legitimately us the " these guys got injured" and these guy didnt with any legitimacy in this particular discussion. P.s. the only one of those 4 I would have ever drafted as my qb1 is cousins.....and he was doing quite well till he got hurt.

 

[Judge Smails]

All fair points. Trying to take injuries out of the equation. Chubb, Jefferson, Cousins were elite before injuries. All different positions. Impossible to predict or handicap.

 

[LawFitz]

Regardless of where they got them, I find most teams who make the playoffs in my leagues do so with elite-level QBs. Sometimes you can find them late (Stroud, Goff this year; Geno, Trevor last year, etc.). Personally, I find it easier to find studs post-draft at WR2/3 or RB2 than I do QB1 year after year. I like having a rock at each of those three positions and then filling in from there. I'll take my stud QB as early as needed, won't bother with a backup at the draft, then will opportunistically grab a backup stud QB as they emerge midseason for bye/injury/block purposes.

 

[Biabreakable]

I would rather take the chance of picking up a qb and panning out vs an elite qb and have him underwhelm

You have to know your league.

Do the math. Some leagues you may have more opportunities to pick suitable starters in free agency, some leagues that may be more difficult.

If the majority of your league waits, then you can wait too.

Tons of seasons have been won by being able to get that top 12 QB late in the draft or from a free agent pick up. I have done that many times.

And there is always the option of playing the QBs by match ups that can line up well to get more out of lesser QBs.

Sometimes you can't get that late round gem though or you pick the wrong starters along the way.

Vs some teams with the high performing QBs you are at a disadvantage vs those teams the whole season from day one and if your other positions are not performing well enough then you can't make up the difference.

Well no matter what strategy you choose to work out the players have to hit. The difference is the stakes are much higher on those early round players. This season the top drafted qbs are doing quite well as compared to rankings but even at that drafting a qb early hasnt worked out in my league ( and never really does as a rule) I THOUGHT I had the best of both worlds in geno.... mid round qb who finished 5th last year who is currently qb 19. I was able to still put together a great team because my "top 5 qb" was drafted in the 8th round I also drafted richardson in the 9th round who was well on his way to being a #1 qb til injury cut his season short. I was able to trade for goff partly because of the depth I built up NOT taking a qb early. Youre never going to have a top 3 qb by taking a qb early but isnt the goal to have a top 3 overall team? p.s. My friend picked even later and took tua and wilson....and turned out even better than me.

Of course it all comes down to who you take and if they hit or not.

In this case the early QB picks not underperforming and the late picks overperforming.

The early picks at WR or RB follow the same criteria. That's great that your early picks there were successful. Many of them have not been.

Both strategies are viable. Neither is wrong. It just depends on who you take.

Well picking the right guys is always the best way to ensure you have a top team but since none of us are good enough to always do that then choosing a strategy that gives you the best chance to win. Yeah neither is wrong. There is no wrong way to draft but the question is what draft strategy is optimal? I haven no issue with people drafting a qb early because without them drafting a qb or 2 late strategy falls flat on its face.

As far as what is more optimal, I can't answer that. It does depend on what the other 11 teams do to try to determine that, as well as how accurate projections end up being, which an injury here or there totally affects that, as well as other things.

Are you saying that if the teams who draft QB early are doing it wrong if they don't also draft a QB late?

I can see some merits to both approaches. But I want to clarify your statement here first.

Obviously there is no right or wrong and if it makes it fun for you by all means take a qb early BUT given the overall supply and demand and the relative value of a 1st/2nd vs a 8-10 round draft pick I think drafting a qb later is the better strategy. Youre right in that it all depends on what others do because if qbs slide then taking a top one in rounds 5 0r 6 makes more sense than waiting till rounds 8-10. Im saying OVERALL drafting one of the last starting qbs then following it up with an early qb2 will generally have you ending up with a better overall team. This year has been an amazing year for top qbs by cheat sheet rankings. Right now 4 of the "top 6" are in the top 6th with Lamar being the outlier at 11th (and burrow who was injured) and yet still the top teams with the top drafted qbs are well bellow averge in my league ( the exception being the Herbert owner who is in first place) Since injuries cant be predicted I think the only extent they play into the strategy discussion is that a lost 1/2 round player hurts your team much more than an 8-10 round player does.

I would agree with you that waiting is generally a better strategy if all of the other teams are waiting as well, as you described it.

Thank you for clarifying what you meant about the 2nd QB being taken by teams that wait, I was not sure if you meant teams taking QB early taking a 2nd QB as well. I get your point now.

This has been a pretty tried and true strategy almost as long as I can remember playing FF and still is.

I do think the dynamic has changed somewhat recently and the increased popularity of 2 QB and Superflex is part of what I think has caused the dynamic to change.

I think teams taking QB early should take a 2nd QB as well when other positions have dried up. Around the same time as teams who waited to take their first QB are taking them. This further reduces the available pool and makes the early QB pick stronger.

But if everyone else waits, one team doing this does not deplete the available pool enough.

However what if the 6 teams taking QB early also all take a 2nd QB around the same time as the teams who wait are taking their 1st QB?

Then the pool gets diminished enough that the teams who waited will be hurting more to get 2 viable QBs to play match ups with.

 

[Biabreakable]

. I'll take my stud QB as early as needed, won't bother with a backup at the draft, then will opportunistically grab a backup stud QB as they emerge midseason for bye/injury/block purposes.

This is where I think early QB fails though. By not taking a 2nd QB to diminish the available pool which makes the advantage of the early QB pick less.

 

[candian fantasy guy]

I’m not sure this year is the year to be making a whole lot of determinations on draft strategy. There have been a TON of injuries and just all around screwiness to this year.

Sure taking Mahomes or Burrow or Jackson high might not have worked out great.

But how are the guys who drafted Barkley, Chubb, Henry, Pollard, Harris, Stevenson, Mixon, Bijan feeling?

How about the guys who took Adams, Kupp, Smith, Higgins, Ridley, Metcalf, Samuel, Wilson, Waddle, Olave? Or maybe even Jefferson at this point?

I’m not a smart enough math guy to figure this out, but it’d be kinda interesting to see what the standard deviation is for the difference between draft spot and current ranking for say the top 30-36 guys drafted using ADP. That would be one way to compare how well off you were on average drafting each position at their ADP as compared to other positions. I think.

Yeah trying to predict injuries or who is going to underperform/ overperform isnt close to an exact science. Trying to predict injuries is a complete fools errand. Ive got 3 players on your lists and am at 7-3 tied for 2nd place by record and out of first place by 40ish points by points. Nobodys rankings will ever be anywhere close to accurate. To me the early qb vs late qb has its own category and over the long haul can be studied. Joe Bryant has decided that waiting till late to get a qb is the best strategy and in my league that began in 1997 that has certainly proven to be the better strategy. Without those people who DO draft a qb early drafting a qb late completely falls on its face so I encourage any and all of you that draft qbs early to keep up the good work !!!! lol

Just out of curiosity, do you play just the 1 league? I mostly play on FFPC and what you are selling isn’t really happening over there. I play many leagues, one thing I have learned over the years, any strategy can work, as long as you pick the right guys. There were lots of land minds in the 2nd and 3rd/4th this year. Avoiding those is always key.

While true, there have been some breakout QB’s this year. It’s the pivoting to those guys that isn’t as easy as you make it sound. I waited for QB on a few teams this year, I ended up with guys like Richardson, Geno, Watson and Goff. It hasn’t really worked that well for those teams.

 

[Ilov80s]

. I'll take my stud QB as early as needed, won't bother with a backup at the draft, then will opportunistically grab a backup stud QB as they emerge midseason for bye/injury/block purposes.

This is where I think early QB fails though. By not taking a 2nd QB to diminish the available pool which makes the advantage of the early QB pick less.

Perhaps but the benefit of having an elite QB is that you for sure don't need to roster a 2nd QB. People who wait to take QB8-12 can't be totally sure and often feel the need to take a 2nd QB on the draft. That extra roster spot is where an elite QB team can gain an extra RB or WR.

 

[da_budman]

I’m not sure this year is the year to be making a whole lot of determinations on draft strategy. There have been a TON of injuries and just all around screwiness to this year.

Sure taking Mahomes or Burrow or Jackson high might not have worked out great.

But how are the guys who drafted Barkley, Chubb, Henry, Pollard, Harris, Stevenson, Mixon, Bijan feeling?

How about the guys who took Adams, Kupp, Smith, Higgins, Ridley, Metcalf, Samuel, Wilson, Waddle, Olave? Or maybe even Jefferson at this point?

I’m not a smart enough math guy to figure this out, but it’d be kinda interesting to see what the standard deviation is for the difference between draft spot and current ranking for say the top 30-36 guys drafted using ADP. That would be one way to compare how well off you were on average drafting each position at their ADP as compared to other positions. I think.

Yeah trying to predict injuries or who is going to underperform/ overperform isnt close to an exact science. Trying to predict injuries is a complete fools errand. Ive got 3 players on your lists and am at 7-3 tied for 2nd place by record and out of first place by 40ish points by points. Nobodys rankings will ever be anywhere close to accurate. To me the early qb vs late qb has its own category and over the long haul can be studied. Joe Bryant has decided that waiting till late to get a qb is the best strategy and in my league that began in 1997 that has certainly proven to be the better strategy. Without those people who DO draft a qb early drafting a qb late completely falls on its face so I encourage any and all of you that draft qbs early to keep up the good work !!!! lol

Just out of curiosity, do you play just the 1 league? I mostly play on FFPC and what you are selling isn’t really happening over there. I play many leagues, one thing I have learned over the years, any strategy can work, as long as you pick the right guys. There were lots of land minds in the 2nd and 3rd/4th this year. Avoiding those is always key.

While true, there have been some breakout QB’s this year. It’s the pivoting to those guys that isn’t as easy as you make it sound. I waited for QB on a few teams this year, I ended up with guys like Richardson, Geno, Watson and Goff. It hasn’t really worked that well for those teams.

This year I cut back to just my main league but keep in mind that league has been running since 1997 so my way of thinking comes from many years of this league and other leagues I have been in in the past. I drafted Richardson ( who you must know was doing very well untill he got injured repeatedly) and Geno ( who got off to a rough start and has done well in 3 of the last 4 games. I also traded for goff who hasnt been spectacular but is a #1 as of now. Its certainly easier to pivot to one of those breakout players if you drafted a qb late than if you drafted one who is underperforming early.

 

[da_budman]

I would rather take the chance of picking up a qb and panning out vs an elite qb and have him underwhelm

You have to know your league.

Do the math. Some leagues you may have more opportunities to pick suitable starters in free agency, some leagues that may be more difficult.

If the majority of your league waits, then you can wait too.

Tons of seasons have been won by being able to get that top 12 QB late in the draft or from a free agent pick up. I have done that many times.

And there is always the option of playing the QBs by match ups that can line up well to get more out of lesser QBs.

Sometimes you can't get that late round gem though or you pick the wrong starters along the way.

Vs some teams with the high performing QBs you are at a disadvantage vs those teams the whole season from day one and if your other positions are not performing well enough then you can't make up the difference.

Well no matter what strategy you choose to work out the players have to hit. The difference is the stakes are much higher on those early round players. This season the top drafted qbs are doing quite well as compared to rankings but even at that drafting a qb early hasnt worked out in my league ( and never really does as a rule) I THOUGHT I had the best of both worlds in geno.... mid round qb who finished 5th last year who is currently qb 19. I was able to still put together a great team because my "top 5 qb" was drafted in the 8th round I also drafted richardson in the 9th round who was well on his way to being a #1 qb til injury cut his season short. I was able to trade for goff partly because of the depth I built up NOT taking a qb early. Youre never going to have a top 3 qb by taking a qb early but isnt the goal to have a top 3 overall team? p.s. My friend picked even later and took tua and wilson....and turned out even better than me.

Of course it all comes down to who you take and if they hit or not.

In this case the early QB picks not underperforming and the late picks overperforming.

The early picks at WR or RB follow the same criteria. That's great that your early picks there were successful. Many of them have not been.

Both strategies are viable. Neither is wrong. It just depends on who you take.

Well picking the right guys is always the best way to ensure you have a top team but since none of us are good enough to always do that then choosing a strategy that gives you the best chance to win. Yeah neither is wrong. There is no wrong way to draft but the question is what draft strategy is optimal? I haven no issue with people drafting a qb early because without them drafting a qb or 2 late strategy falls flat on its face.

As far as what is more optimal, I can't answer that. It does depend on what the other 11 teams do to try to determine that, as well as how accurate projections end up being, which an injury here or there totally affects that, as well as other things.

Are you saying that if the teams who draft QB early are doing it wrong if they don't also draft a QB late?

I can see some merits to both approaches. But I want to clarify your statement here first.

Obviously there is no right or wrong and if it makes it fun for you by all means take a qb early BUT given the overall supply and demand and the relative value of a 1st/2nd vs a 8-10 round draft pick I think drafting a qb later is the better strategy. Youre right in that it all depends on what others do because if qbs slide then taking a top one in rounds 5 0r 6 makes more sense than waiting till rounds 8-10. Im saying OVERALL drafting one of the last starting qbs then following it up with an early qb2 will generally have you ending up with a better overall team. This year has been an amazing year for top qbs by cheat sheet rankings. Right now 4 of the "top 6" are in the top 6th with Lamar being the outlier at 11th (and burrow who was injured) and yet still the top teams with the top drafted qbs are well bellow averge in my league ( the exception being the Herbert owner who is in first place) Since injuries cant be predicted I think the only extent they play into the strategy discussion is that a lost 1/2 round player hurts your team much more than an 8-10 round player does.

I would agree with you that waiting is generally a better strategy if all of the other teams are waiting as well, as you described it.

Thank you for clarifying what you meant about the 2nd QB being taken by teams that wait, I was not sure if you meant teams taking QB early taking a 2nd QB as well. I get your point now.

This has been a pretty tried and true strategy almost as long as I can remember playing FF and still is.

I do think the dynamic has changed somewhat recently and the increased popularity of 2 QB and Superflex is part of what I think has caused the dynamic to change.

I think teams taking QB early should take a 2nd QB as well when other positions have dried up. Around the same time as teams who waited to take their first QB are taking them. This further reduces the available pool and makes the early QB pick stronger.

But if everyone else waits, one team doing this does not deplete the available pool enough.

However what if the 6 teams taking QB early also all take a 2nd QB around the same time as the teams who wait are taking their 1st QB?

Then the pool gets diminished enough that the teams who waited will be hurting more to get 2 viable QBs to play match ups with.

for sure BUT if teams use a pick on a qb rounds 1 or 2 then follows t up with another qb in round 8 doesnt that compound the issue with taking a qb early and make it even more difficult to have a good team for them? I mean Ive seen it happen but most teams drafting a qb early realize that taking a backup early kinda screws them. If it happens too much ( never seen that happen in a 1 qb league) then sure it puts the squeeze on the late qb strategy. Quick story: Years ago my wife joined the main league knowing nothing about FF. Despite anything I said she drafted a qb early then decided since qbs score the most points she picked up another in the fourth. Those of us who draft qbs late grumbled and she just laughed and laughed. Her team wasnt very good but she got a kick out of watching me squirm.

 

[da_budman]

. I'll take my stud QB as early as needed, won't bother with a backup at the draft, then will opportunistically grab a backup stud QB as they emerge midseason for bye/injury/block purposes.

This is where I think early QB fails though. By not taking a 2nd QB to diminish the available pool which makes the advantage of the early QB pick less.

Perhaps but the benefit of having an elite QB is that you for sure don't need to roster a 2nd QB. People who wait to take QB8-12 can't be totally sure and often feel the need to take a 2nd QB on the draft. That extra roster spot is where an elite QB team can gain an extra RB or WR.

That is for sure an advantage but I think its well into the minority. IF I were to draft a qb early that is certainly what I would do.

 

[Ilov80s]

. I'll take my stud QB as early as needed, won't bother with a backup at the draft, then will opportunistically grab a backup stud QB as they emerge midseason for bye/injury/block purposes.

This is where I think early QB fails though. By not taking a 2nd QB to diminish the available pool which makes the advantage of the early QB pick less.

Perhaps but the benefit of having an elite QB is that you for sure don't need to roster a 2nd QB. People who wait to take QB8-12 can't be totally sure and often feel the need to take a 2nd QB on the draft. That extra roster spot is where an elite QB team can gain an extra RB or WR.

That is for sure an advantage but I think its well into the minority. IF I were to draft a qb early that is certainly what I would do.

I think anyone who takes a QB early and then drafts a 2nd QB- especially one before like round 12/13 doesn't understand the game they are playing.

 

[da_budman]

Regardless of where they got them, I find most teams who make the playoffs in my leagues do so with elite-level QBs. Sometimes you can find them late (Stroud, Goff this year; Geno, Trevor last year, etc.). Personally, I find it easier to find studs post-draft at WR2/3 or RB2 than I do QB1 year after year. I like having a rock at each of those three positions and then filling in from there. I'll take my stud QB as early as needed, won't bother with a backup at the draft, then will opportunistically grab a backup stud QB as they emerge midseason for bye/injury/block purposes.

I agree with wr3 less with wr2 and almost impossible at rb2 unless there is an injury ( at which point, sure all bets are off) and if you use faab paying for those rbs will quickly spend all your faab. Over the years I have found the lack of rbs is what keeps my team from being a contender moreso than qb and wr. Its been rb>>>> wr>> qb. The thing that gets lost in these discussions is the most important factor imo... The fact that suppy and demand is what makes drafting a qb early less of an attractive proposition.

 

[candian fantasy guy]

I’m not sure this year is the year to be making a whole lot of determinations on draft strategy. There have been a TON of injuries and just all around screwiness to this year.

Sure taking Mahomes or Burrow or Jackson high might not have worked out great.

But how are the guys who drafted Barkley, Chubb, Henry, Pollard, Harris, Stevenson, Mixon, Bijan feeling?

How about the guys who took Adams, Kupp, Smith, Higgins, Ridley, Metcalf, Samuel, Wilson, Waddle, Olave? Or maybe even Jefferson at this point?

I’m not a smart enough math guy to figure this out, but it’d be kinda interesting to see what the standard deviation is for the difference between draft spot and current ranking for say the top 30-36 guys drafted using ADP. That would be one way to compare how well off you were on average drafting each position at their ADP as compared to other positions. I think.

Yeah trying to predict injuries or who is going to underperform/ overperform isnt close to an exact science. Trying to predict injuries is a complete fools errand. Ive got 3 players on your lists and am at 7-3 tied for 2nd place by record and out of first place by 40ish points by points. Nobodys rankings will ever be anywhere close to accurate. To me the early qb vs late qb has its own category and over the long haul can be studied. Joe Bryant has decided that waiting till late to get a qb is the best strategy and in my league that began in 1997 that has certainly proven to be the better strategy. Without those people who DO draft a qb early drafting a qb late completely falls on its face so I encourage any and all of you that draft qbs early to keep up the good work !!!! lol

Just out of curiosity, do you play just the 1 league? I mostly play on FFPC and what you are selling isn’t really happening over there. I play many leagues, one thing I have learned over the years, any strategy can work, as long as you pick the right guys. There were lots of land minds in the 2nd and 3rd/4th this year. Avoiding those is always key.

While true, there have been some breakout QB’s this year. It’s the pivoting to those guys that isn’t as easy as you make it sound. I waited for QB on a few teams this year, I ended up with guys like Richardson, Geno, Watson and Goff. It hasn’t really worked that well for those teams.

This year I cut back to just my main league but keep in mind that league has been running since 1997 so my way of thinking comes from many years of this league and other leagues I have been in in the past. I drafted Richardson ( who you must know was doing very well untill he got injured repeatedly) and Geno ( who got off to a rough start and has done well in 3 of the last 4 games. I also traded for goff who hasnt been spectacular but is a #1 as of now. Its certainly easier to pivot to one of those breakout players if you drafted a qb late than if you drafted one who is underperforming early.

Richardson was doing very well …. Well kind of.
week 1 - an awesome 24.15 in 4pts per passsing TD
week 2 - 18.30 pts in less than a quarter, pretty amazing considering that, but still only 18pts
week 3 - 0 points, did not play
week 4 - 32.6 - BOOM, that’s what I am talking about!
week 5 - 5.4 and done for the year

Allen, Hurts and Mahomes, in order

week 1 - 15.2, 15.4, 22.8
week2 - 28.15, 26.4, 25.25
week 3 - 24.65, 24.5, 28.4
week 4- 27.35, 39.7, 17.25
week 5 - 31.35, 32.35, 22.05

Knowing your bar for “very good”, what would you rate this group right here?

 

[Biabreakable]

. I'll take my stud QB as early as needed, won't bother with a backup at the draft, then will opportunistically grab a backup stud QB as they emerge midseason for bye/injury/block purposes.

This is where I think early QB fails though. By not taking a 2nd QB to diminish the available pool which makes the advantage of the early QB pick less.

Perhaps but the benefit of having an elite QB is that you for sure don't need to roster a 2nd QB. People who wait to take QB8-12 can't be totally sure and often feel the need to take a 2nd QB on the draft. That extra roster spot is where an elite QB team can gain an extra RB or WR.

They can. But if the other teams are waiting until QB is the best player on the board, it likely is at that point, so is getting another RB or WR there the best pick or is it QB?

If it's QB then even though the team that drafted QB early doesn't need QB as much it's still BPA and denies the other teams that option.

 

[Ilov80s]

. I'll take my stud QB as early as needed, won't bother with a backup at the draft, then will opportunistically grab a backup stud QB as they emerge midseason for bye/injury/block purposes.

This is where I think early QB fails though. By not taking a 2nd QB to diminish the available pool which makes the advantage of the early QB pick less.

Perhaps but the benefit of having an elite QB is that you for sure don't need to roster a 2nd QB. People who wait to take QB8-12 can't be totally sure and often feel the need to take a 2nd QB on the draft. That extra roster spot is where an elite QB team can gain an extra RB or WR.

They can. But if the other teams are waiting until QB is the best player on the board, it likely is at that point, so is getting another RB or WR there the best pick or is it QB?

If it's QB then even though the team that drafted QB early doesn't need QB as much it's still BPA and denies the other teams that option.

1. I would contend teams that took Hurts/Allen/Mahomes in round 3 did take the BPA.
2. I know what you mean about how in round 8, the QB is a safer pick than the RB/WR. However, the upside on hitting at RB/WR is so much more valuable than hitting at QB. The whole value proposition is different.
3.In a league where the supply-demand favors RB/WR so heavily, I don't think there is much advantage gained at QB/TE unless you hit a totally elite player. If you spend a late pick on WR and land the WR20, that's very valuable. If you use that late pick and get QB14, it doesn't really do much for you or any other team.

 

[Biabreakable]

. I'll take my stud QB as early as needed, won't bother with a backup at the draft, then will opportunistically grab a backup stud QB as they emerge midseason for bye/injury/block purposes.

This is where I think early QB fails though. By not taking a 2nd QB to diminish the available pool which makes the advantage of the early QB pick less.

Perhaps but the benefit of having an elite QB is that you for sure don't need to roster a 2nd QB. People who wait to take QB8-12 can't be totally sure and often feel the need to take a 2nd QB on the draft. That extra roster spot is where an elite QB team can gain an extra RB or WR.

That is for sure an advantage but I think its well into the minority. IF I were to draft a qb early that is certainly what I would do.

I think anyone who takes a QB early and then drafts a 2nd QB- especially one before like round 12/13 doesn't understand the game they are playing.

Yeah well I only play 2 QB leagues now.

I do know how to play 1 QB leagues but it's pretty much not fun for me because of the lack of scarcity at the position makes it somewhat worthless.

Not that it should be, but just because of how it's structured and how managers play it.

It's just too easy to wait and then wait some more and still scrape by because no one bothers to roster enough QBs for it to matter.

People will draft 3rd string RB when starting QBs are still available.

Whoopie.

 

[Ilov80s]

. I'll take my stud QB as early as needed, won't bother with a backup at the draft, then will opportunistically grab a backup stud QB as they emerge midseason for bye/injury/block purposes.

This is where I think early QB fails though. By not taking a 2nd QB to diminish the available pool which makes the advantage of the early QB pick less.

Perhaps but the benefit of having an elite QB is that you for sure don't need to roster a 2nd QB. People who wait to take QB8-12 can't be totally sure and often feel the need to take a 2nd QB on the draft. That extra roster spot is where an elite QB team can gain an extra RB or WR.

That is for sure an advantage but I think its well into the minority. IF I were to draft a qb early that is certainly what I would do.

I think anyone who takes a QB early and then drafts a 2nd QB- especially one before like round 12/13 doesn't understand the game they are playing.

Yeah well I only play 2 QB leagues now.

I do know how to play 1 QB leagues but it's pretty much not fun for me because of the lack of scarcity at the position makes it somewhat worthless.

Not that it should be, but just because of how it's structured and how managers play it.

It's just too easy to wait and then wait some more and still scrape by because no one bothers to roster enough QBs for it to matter.

People will draft 3rd string RB when starting QBs are still available.

Whoopie.

Yeah, I would like to do 2 QB leagues. It makes total sense to me, but it just hasn't worked out that way and I am not looking to add a bunch more leagues. But even in 1QB, it still matters. At least with the people I draft with (who I admit aren't always cutting edge). Teams still take 2 or sometimes 3 QBs and guys like Hurts are still a major advantage. Plus, it's not like the 3rd round options this year at RB and WR are killing it. Taking Hurts over Ridley or Najee or Tee Higgins is still looking quite wise.

 

[da_budman]

I’m not sure this year is the year to be making a whole lot of determinations on draft strategy. There have been a TON of injuries and just all around screwiness to this year.

Sure taking Mahomes or Burrow or Jackson high might not have worked out great.

But how are the guys who drafted Barkley, Chubb, Henry, Pollard, Harris, Stevenson, Mixon, Bijan feeling?

How about the guys who took Adams, Kupp, Smith, Higgins, Ridley, Metcalf, Samuel, Wilson, Waddle, Olave? Or maybe even Jefferson at this point?

I’m not a smart enough math guy to figure this out, but it’d be kinda interesting to see what the standard deviation is for the difference between draft spot and current ranking for say the top 30-36 guys drafted using ADP. That would be one way to compare how well off you were on average drafting each position at their ADP as compared to other positions. I think.

Yeah trying to predict injuries or who is going to underperform/ overperform isnt close to an exact science. Trying to predict injuries is a complete fools errand. Ive got 3 players on your lists and am at 7-3 tied for 2nd place by record and out of first place by 40ish points by points. Nobodys rankings will ever be anywhere close to accurate. To me the early qb vs late qb has its own category and over the long haul can be studied. Joe Bryant has decided that waiting till late to get a qb is the best strategy and in my league that began in 1997 that has certainly proven to be the better strategy. Without those people who DO draft a qb early drafting a qb late completely falls on its face so I encourage any and all of you that draft qbs early to keep up the good work !!!! lol

Just out of curiosity, do you play just the 1 league? I mostly play on FFPC and what you are selling isn’t really happening over there. I play many leagues, one thing I have learned over the years, any strategy can work, as long as you pick the right guys. There were lots of land minds in the 2nd and 3rd/4th this year. Avoiding those is always key.

While true, there have been some breakout QB’s this year. It’s the pivoting to those guys that isn’t as easy as you make it sound. I waited for QB on a few teams this year, I ended up with guys like Richardson, Geno, Watson and Goff. It hasn’t really worked that well for those teams.

This year I cut back to just my main league but keep in mind that league has been running since 1997 so my way of thinking comes from many years of this league and other leagues I have been in in the past. I drafted Richardson ( who you must know was doing very well untill he got injured repeatedly) and Geno ( who got off to a rough start and has done well in 3 of the last 4 games. I also traded for goff who hasnt been spectacular but is a #1 as of now. Its certainly easier to pivot to one of those breakout players if you drafted a qb late than if you drafted one who is underperforming early.

Richardson was doing very well …. Well kind of.
week 1 - an awesome 24.15 in 4pts per passsing TD
week 2 - 18.30 pts in less than a quarter, pretty amazing considering that, but still only 18pts
week 3 - 0 points, did not play
week 4 - 32.6 - BOOM, that’s what I am talking about!
week 5 - 5.4 and done for the year

Allen, Hurts and Mahomes, in order

week 1 - 15.2, 15.4, 22.8
week2 - 28.15, 26.4, 25.25
week 3 - 24.65, 24.5, 28.4
week 4- 27.35, 39.7, 17.25
week 5 - 31.35, 32.35, 22.05

Knowing your bar for “very good”, what would you rate this group right here?

Im not sure what your point is. Your own number not only prove that not only was Richardson very good, he was ELITE when not injured. I didnt even remember him being that good...wow..... None of the other 3 got injured did they? Of course their overall numbers will be good. Both Allen and Hurts were also elite, Mahomes first 5 weeks were probably a mid #1 qb where he still is.... at a top 2 draft pick cost. If I remember correctly when not injured Richardson was QB3. He just needs to figure out how to best avoid injuries and I think he will be in the qb3-qb7 range next year. He will be a fine late round qb in the next draft. If you are smart enough to know the quarterback injuries would be so bad this year then you are above my pay grade. If you knew there would be so many qb injuries that also is a strike against drafting a qb early because there is no way to determine the 3 you are mentioning here would be 3 that remained healthy. I think you would agree with me that losing a top 2 round to injury will affect that team worse than a Richardson did who I drafted in the 10th round right?

 

[da_budman]

. I'll take my stud QB as early as needed, won't bother with a backup at the draft, then will opportunistically grab a backup stud QB as they emerge midseason for bye/injury/block purposes.

This is where I think early QB fails though. By not taking a 2nd QB to diminish the available pool which makes the advantage of the early QB pick less.

Perhaps but the benefit of having an elite QB is that you for sure don't need to roster a 2nd QB. People who wait to take QB8-12 can't be totally sure and often feel the need to take a 2nd QB on the draft. That extra roster spot is where an elite QB team can gain an extra RB or WR.

That is for sure an advantage but I think its well into the minority. IF I were to draft a qb early that is certainly what I would do.

I think anyone who takes a QB early and then drafts a 2nd QB- especially one before like round 12/13 doesn't understand the game they are playing.

Yeah well I only play 2 QB leagues now.

I do know how to play 1 QB leagues but it's pretty much not fun for me because of the lack of scarcity at the position makes it somewhat worthless.

Not that it should be, but just because of how it's structured and how managers play it.

It's just too easy to wait and then wait some more and still scrape by because no one bothers to roster enough QBs for it to matter.

People will draft 3rd string RB when starting QBs are still available.

Whoopie.

Yeah 2 qb leagues are a different animal altogether. NOTHING I have said applies to 2 qb leagues. Lack of scarcity is the top reason I think waiting on a qb is a better overal strategy. Im sorry that has soured you on 1 qb league.

 

[da_budman]

. I'll take my stud QB as early as needed, won't bother with a backup at the draft, then will opportunistically grab a backup stud QB as they emerge midseason for bye/injury/block purposes.

This is where I think early QB fails though. By not taking a 2nd QB to diminish the available pool which makes the advantage of the early QB pick less.

Perhaps but the benefit of having an elite QB is that you for sure don't need to roster a 2nd QB. People who wait to take QB8-12 can't be totally sure and often feel the need to take a 2nd QB on the draft. That extra roster spot is where an elite QB team can gain an extra RB or WR.

They can. But if the other teams are waiting until QB is the best player on the board, it likely is at that point, so is getting another RB or WR there the best pick or is it QB?

If it's QB then even though the team that drafted QB early doesn't need QB as much it's still BPA and denies the other teams that option.

1. I would contend teams that took Hurts/Allen/Mahomes in round 3 did take the BPA.
2. I know what you mean about how in round 8, the QB is a safer pick than the RB/WR. However, the upside on hitting at RB/WR is so much more valuable than hitting at QB. The whole value proposition is different.
3.In a league where the supply-demand favors RB/WR so heavily, I don't think there is much advantage gained at QB/TE unless you hit a totally elite player. If you spend a late pick on WR and land the WR20, that's very valuable. If you use that late pick and get QB14, it doesn't really do much for you or any other team.

I think the leagues where you see those 3 qbs going round 3 or later are your industry expert leagues (where they all realize taking a qb early can be team killers) Not sure Ive ever been in a league where the supply and demand for rbs and wrs is better than the supply and demand for qbs. Maybe in a league where you only start 1 rb or 2 wrs and no flex. .. Even then supply and demand is equal to supply and demand for qbs. I dont think anybody drafting a qb in round 8 is shooting for qb 14.... Doesnt mean it wont end up that way but there is no guarantee using a top 2 round pick on a qb is going to be qb2 either. When I take a qb in rounds 8-10 Im picking 2 guys with upside who I think can finish in the qb 6-10 range. When that happens then Im round for round better off up until round 8 where Im even up against them.

 

[Ilov80s]

. I'll take my stud QB as early as needed, won't bother with a backup at the draft, then will opportunistically grab a backup stud QB as they emerge midseason for bye/injury/block purposes.

This is where I think early QB fails though. By not taking a 2nd QB to diminish the available pool which makes the advantage of the early QB pick less.

Perhaps but the benefit of having an elite QB is that you for sure don't need to roster a 2nd QB. People who wait to take QB8-12 can't be totally sure and often feel the need to take a 2nd QB on the draft. That extra roster spot is where an elite QB team can gain an extra RB or WR.

They can. But if the other teams are waiting until QB is the best player on the board, it likely is at that point, so is getting another RB or WR there the best pick or is it QB?

If it's QB then even though the team that drafted QB early doesn't need QB as much it's still BPA and denies the other teams that option.

1. I would contend teams that took Hurts/Allen/Mahomes in round 3 did take the BPA.
2. I know what you mean about how in round 8, the QB is a safer pick than the RB/WR. However, the upside on hitting at RB/WR is so much more valuable than hitting at QB. The whole value proposition is different.
3.In a league where the supply-demand favors RB/WR so heavily, I don't think there is much advantage gained at QB/TE unless you hit a totally elite player. If you spend a late pick on WR and land the WR20, that's very valuable. If you use that late pick and get QB14, it doesn't really do much for you or any other team.

I think the leagues where you see those 3 qbs going round 3 or later are your industry expert leagues (where they all realize taking a qb early can be team killers) Not sure Ive ever been in a league where the supply and demand for rbs and wrs is better than the supply and demand for qbs. Maybe in a league where you only start 1 rb or 2 wrs and no flex. .. Even then supply and demand is equal to supply and demand for qbs. I dont think anybody drafting a qb in round 8 is shooting for qb 14.... Doesnt mean it wont end up that way but there is no guarantee using a top 2 round pick on a qb is going to be qb2 either. When I take a qb in rounds 8-10 Im picking 2 guys with upside who I think can finish in the qb 6-10 range. When that happens then Im round for round better off up until round 8 where Im even up against them.

Hurts and Allen went round 3 in my very normal long time fantasy league.

Yeah nobody drafts a QB hoping he is QB14 but that’s what happens sometimes. And again you are taking 2 QBs hoping they are maybe QB6-10. I am ok taking a guy I feel is pretty locked into a top 3 QB spot and not spending any more picks on the position.

 

[da_budman]

. I'll take my stud QB as early as needed, won't bother with a backup at the draft, then will opportunistically grab a backup stud QB as they emerge midseason for bye/injury/block purposes.

This is where I think early QB fails though. By not taking a 2nd QB to diminish the available pool which makes the advantage of the early QB pick less.

Perhaps but the benefit of having an elite QB is that you for sure don't need to roster a 2nd QB. People who wait to take QB8-12 can't be totally sure and often feel the need to take a 2nd QB on the draft. That extra roster spot is where an elite QB team can gain an extra RB or WR.

They can. But if the other teams are waiting until QB is the best player on the board, it likely is at that point, so is getting another RB or WR there the best pick or is it QB?

If it's QB then even though the team that drafted QB early doesn't need QB as much it's still BPA and denies the other teams that option.

1. I would contend teams that took Hurts/Allen/Mahomes in round 3 did take the BPA.
2. I know what you mean about how in round 8, the QB is a safer pick than the RB/WR. However, the upside on hitting at RB/WR is so much more valuable than hitting at QB. The whole value proposition is different.
3.In a league where the supply-demand favors RB/WR so heavily, I don't think there is much advantage gained at QB/TE unless you hit a totally elite player. If you spend a late pick on WR and land the WR20, that's very valuable. If you use that late pick and get QB14, it doesn't really do much for you or any other team.

I think the leagues where you see those 3 qbs going round 3 or later are your industry expert leagues (where they all realize taking a qb early can be team killers) Not sure Ive ever been in a league where the supply and demand for rbs and wrs is better than the supply and demand for qbs. Maybe in a league where you only start 1 rb or 2 wrs and no flex. .. Even then supply and demand is equal to supply and demand for qbs. I dont think anybody drafting a qb in round 8 is shooting for qb 14.... Doesnt mean it wont end up that way but there is no guarantee using a top 2 round pick on a qb is going to be qb2 either. When I take a qb in rounds 8-10 Im picking 2 guys with upside who I think can finish in the qb 6-10 range. When that happens then Im round for round better off up until round 8 where Im even up against them.

Hurts and Allen went round 3 in my very normal long time fantasy league.

Yeah nobody drafts a QB hoping he is QB14 but that’s what happens sometimes. And again you are taking 2 QBs hoping they are maybe QB6-10. I am ok taking a guy I feel is pretty locked into a top 3 QB spot and not spending any more picks on the position.

and I am ok effectively drafting one round ahead of you from rounds 3 to round 8 picking up rbs and wrs. p.s. you already know this but the later the top qbs go obviously taking qbs mid to late makes less sense. Sounds like your league has figured out taking a qb in the first couple of rounds isnt good strategy as well.

 

[da_budman]

. I'll take my stud QB as early as needed, won't bother with a backup at the draft, then will opportunistically grab a backup stud QB as they emerge midseason for bye/injury/block purposes.

This is where I think early QB fails though. By not taking a 2nd QB to diminish the available pool which makes the advantage of the early QB pick less.

Perhaps but the benefit of having an elite QB is that you for sure don't need to roster a 2nd QB. People who wait to take QB8-12 can't be totally sure and often feel the need to take a 2nd QB on the draft. That extra roster spot is where an elite QB team can gain an extra RB or WR.

They can. But if the other teams are waiting until QB is the best player on the board, it likely is at that point, so is getting another RB or WR there the best pick or is it QB?

If it's QB then even though the team that drafted QB early doesn't need QB as much it's still BPA and denies the other teams that option.

1. I would contend teams that took Hurts/Allen/Mahomes in round 3 did take the BPA.
2. I know what you mean about how in round 8, the QB is a safer pick than the RB/WR. However, the upside on hitting at RB/WR is so much more valuable than hitting at QB. The whole value proposition is different.
3.In a league where the supply-demand favors RB/WR so heavily, I don't think there is much advantage gained at QB/TE unless you hit a totally elite player. If you spend a late pick on WR and land the WR20, that's very valuable. If you use that late pick and get QB14, it doesn't really do much for you or any other team.

I think the leagues where you see those 3 qbs going round 3 or later are your industry expert leagues (where they all realize taking a qb early can be team killers) Not sure Ive ever been in a league where the supply and demand for rbs and wrs is better than the supply and demand for qbs. Maybe in a league where you only start 1 rb or 2 wrs and no flex. .. Even then supply and demand is equal to supply and demand for qbs. I dont think anybody drafting a qb in round 8 is shooting for qb 14.... Doesnt mean it wont end up that way but there is no guarantee using a top 2 round pick on a qb is going to be qb2 either. When I take a qb in rounds 8-10 Im picking 2 guys with upside who I think can finish in the qb 6-10 range. When that happens then Im round for round better off up until round 8 where Im even up against them.

Hurts and Allen went round 3 in my very normal long time fantasy league.

Yeah nobody drafts a QB hoping he is QB14 but that’s what happens sometimes. And again you are taking 2 QBs hoping they are maybe QB6-10. I am ok taking a guy I feel is pretty locked into a top 3 QB spot and not spending any more picks on the position.

true....and sometimes you draft a guy like mahomes early and he ends up being in that same range. Its much easier to make up in for a miss in rounds 8-10 than it is in an early round. I dont think anybody would argue that for a team to be good its much easier to have mid to late round picks to not work out ( for whatever reason) than it is to have early round picks not work out.

 

[da_budman]

Its been a fun discussion and at this point I think the horse is dead. Thanks for the back and forth with you guys who see it differently. Respectful discussion is what makes this site great. To those of you who believe in drafting a qb early by all means convince your friends Without yall and them my strategy is dead in the water.

 

[Ilov80s]

. I'll take my stud QB as early as needed, won't bother with a backup at the draft, then will opportunistically grab a backup stud QB as they emerge midseason for bye/injury/block purposes.

This is where I think early QB fails though. By not taking a 2nd QB to diminish the available pool which makes the advantage of the early QB pick less.

Perhaps but the benefit of having an elite QB is that you for sure don't need to roster a 2nd QB. People who wait to take QB8-12 can't be totally sure and often feel the need to take a 2nd QB on the draft. That extra roster spot is where an elite QB team can gain an extra RB or WR.

They can. But if the other teams are waiting until QB is the best player on the board, it likely is at that point, so is getting another RB or WR there the best pick or is it QB?

If it's QB then even though the team that drafted QB early doesn't need QB as much it's still BPA and denies the other teams that option.

1. I would contend teams that took Hurts/Allen/Mahomes in round 3 did take the BPA.
2. I know what you mean about how in round 8, the QB is a safer pick than the RB/WR. However, the upside on hitting at RB/WR is so much more valuable than hitting at QB. The whole value proposition is different.
3.In a league where the supply-demand favors RB/WR so heavily, I don't think there is much advantage gained at QB/TE unless you hit a totally elite player. If you spend a late pick on WR and land the WR20, that's very valuable. If you use that late pick and get QB14, it doesn't really do much for you or any other team.

I think the leagues where you see those 3 qbs going round 3 or later are your industry expert leagues (where they all realize taking a qb early can be team killers) Not sure Ive ever been in a league where the supply and demand for rbs and wrs is better than the supply and demand for qbs. Maybe in a league where you only start 1 rb or 2 wrs and no flex. .. Even then supply and demand is equal to supply and demand for qbs. I dont think anybody drafting a qb in round 8 is shooting for qb 14.... Doesnt mean it wont end up that way but there is no guarantee using a top 2 round pick on a qb is going to be qb2 either. When I take a qb in rounds 8-10 Im picking 2 guys with upside who I think can finish in the qb 6-10 range. When that happens then Im round for round better off up until round 8 where Im even up against them.

Hurts and Allen went round 3 in my very normal long time fantasy league.

Yeah nobody drafts a QB hoping he is QB14 but that’s what happens sometimes. And again you are taking 2 QBs hoping they are maybe QB6-10. I am ok taking a guy I feel is pretty locked into a top 3 QB spot and not spending any more picks on the position.

true....and sometimes you draft a guy like mahomes early and he ends up being in that same range. Its much easier to make up in for a miss in rounds 8-10 than it is in an early round. I dont think anybody would argue that for a team to be good its much easier to have mid to late round picks to not work out ( for whatever reason) than it is to have early round picks not work out.

Mahomes is QB5 in my league. But most of this years 3rd round picks have been disappointing as well. Once you get past round 2, it’s dicey. I felt good with the risk-reward proposition of Hurts there.

 

[Biabreakable]

. I'll take my stud QB as early as needed, won't bother with a backup at the draft, then will opportunistically grab a backup stud QB as they emerge midseason for bye/injury/block purposes.

This is where I think early QB fails though. By not taking a 2nd QB to diminish the available pool which makes the advantage of the early QB pick less.

Perhaps but the benefit of having an elite QB is that you for sure don't need to roster a 2nd QB. People who wait to take QB8-12 can't be totally sure and often feel the need to take a 2nd QB on the draft. That extra roster spot is where an elite QB team can gain an extra RB or WR.

That is for sure an advantage but I think its well into the minority. IF I were to draft a qb early that is certainly what I would do.

I think anyone who takes a QB early and then drafts a 2nd QB- especially one before like round 12/13 doesn't understand the game they are playing.

Yeah well I only play 2 QB leagues now.

I do know how to play 1 QB leagues but it's pretty much not fun for me because of the lack of scarcity at the position makes it somewhat worthless.

Not that it should be, but just because of how it's structured and how managers play it.

It's just too easy to wait and then wait some more and still scrape by because no one bothers to roster enough QBs for it to matter.

People will draft 3rd string RB when starting QBs are still available.

Whoopie.

Yeah 2 qb leagues are a different animal altogether. NOTHING I have said applies to 2 qb leagues. Lack of scarcity is the top reason I think waiting on a qb is a better overal strategy. Im sorry that has soured you on 1 qb league.

Yeah well I don't know if soured is quite where I'm at in regards to 1 QB leagues, but I do find the dynamic of the scarcity issue to be annoying. I have felt that way for a long time. I did play that format for over 20 years or so. So I know how that goes.

It is a bit different in deep roster dynasty where teams have the roster space to hoard more QBs. Even so they still are not worth that much so hard to use QBs for trading purposes even with all the starters rostered.

I did find myself in a bind when short on QBs and no one willing to part with any at reasonable value because my team was otherwise too strong. I recall being somewhat forced into a corner and having to draft Josh Freeman as a rookie who I did not want, but just because I couldn't get a trade.

You win too much and opponents can get pretty stingy about helping you.

I would have been fine if I could have gotten Matthew Stafford instead but I also couldn't move to the pick I needed to get him.

But anyhow most 1 QB league rosters are not that deep where they are all spoken for.

I play 2 QB and TE premium because I like all player positions to be valuable and that's the way those positions get more balanced to the RB and WR. It's just more fun for me that way.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

. I'll take my stud QB as early as needed, won't bother with a backup at the draft, then will opportunistically grab a backup stud QB as they emerge midseason for bye/injury/block purposes.

This is where I think early QB fails though. By not taking a 2nd QB to diminish the available pool which makes the advantage of the early QB pick less.

Also depends on roster size. My main 12-team redraft is 19 rounds. 11 starters, 8 bench. Each individual bench spot is less valuable than it would be in a league with smaller rosters, so almost everyone takes a backup QB regardless of where they drafted their starter.

 

[zed2283]

I've been playing ff for a long time (since 1994) and I'm just popping in here to say that it's all luck. It's all luck who gets injured and who doesn't. It's all luck how the draft falls for you. Maybe the elite QB worked out for you, maybe it was stud RB, maybe it was zero RB, etc. It's all luck how many points get scored against you. Nowadays everyone has the same information, and they don't even have to go looking for it, it's force fed to everyone. It's all luck if that information helps someone and not someone else.

Yes there are trends, yes there are strategies, yes there are things you can do to increase your chances. But much like an infield or outfield shift or whatever other things they do in baseball, those things may increase your % from .505 to .515, which means it barely moves the needle and it's all luck anyway.

/end rant

 

[belljr]

I thought of this thread when talking with my son. His league about 5 years ago switched to "TEAM QB" - much like a TEAM Defense.

This eliminates making roster moves for backup QBS..... love or hate it I thought it was interesting.

 

[Scoresman]

Some data I've been looking at seem to support waiting on QB but kind of tells us what we already know.

The top 4-5 QBs that usually end up in a tier of their own at the top, has whittled down to 2 and they are projected to score 10-15% less than previous year elite QBs. The last 3 years, the QB3 scored nearly 390 points. This year's QB3 is on pace to score 336 points.

In addition, QB 12 has usually been in about the 275-280 total fantasy point range. This year's current QB12 is on pace to score nearly 300.

So the elite tier is shrinking, but the mid-backend of the top 12-15 is stronger.

 

[BearsFan4Life]

14 team league .. top 6 playoffs spots are currently held the following qbs:

Mahomes
Stroud
Tua
Burrow - now Purdy
Dak
Lawrence

 

[Pip's Invitation]

The 6 playoff spots in my 12-team redraft are held by teams starting these QBs (6-point passing TDs):

Dobbs/Lawrence
Dak
Allen (me)
Hurts
Tua
Howell

 

[Deamon]

The current top 4 scoring fantasy QB's this year (Allen, Hurts, Herbert, Jackson) were all drafted in the top 6 QBs taken (in most leagues).

Wow. QB early has really really paid off this year.

 

[jobarules]

Some data I've been looking at seem to support waiting on QB but kind of tells us what we already know.

The top 4-5 QBs that usually end up in a tier of their own at the top, has whittled down to 2 and they are projected to score 10-15% less than previous year elite QBs. The last 3 years, the QB3 scored nearly 390 points. This year's QB3 is on pace to score 336 points.

In addition, QB 12 has usually been in about the 275-280 total fantasy point range. This year's current QB12 is on pace to score nearly 300.

So the elite tier is shrinking, but the mid-backend of the top 12-15 is stronger.

The thread could've ended right here

 

[jobarules]

The current top 4 scoring fantasy QB's this year (Allen, Hurts, Herbert, Jackson) were all drafted in the top 6 QBs taken (in most leagues).

Wow. QB early has really really paid off this year.

In my league Ljax has 4 more points than Stroud but played an extra game. Also Howell has more points than ljax. Allen also played an extra game.

Also it's not about ranking but point differential but you know this.