Has the draft elite QB strategy already jumped the shark? (1 Viewer)

[da_budman]

Also, of the consensus top 6 QBs taken this year, this is where they currently sit:

Allen (QB1)
Hurts (QB2)
Mahomes (QB8)
Jackson (QB5)
Herbert (QB4)
Burrow (QB17 but was injured)

That seems very high, and I'd almost expect this year has given us more "Top 5 QB picks landing in the top 10" as other years. If anything, it validates taking QB early.

God only knows how Lamar Jackson could be QB5 in any scoring system. He's QB9 in mine after his latest dud.

QB 11 in my pretty standard except 6pts per td league.

I would say 4 per passing Td is more the norm than 6. But that's a whole other conversation that's not super relevant here.

Me too.... Which is why I said pretty standard EXCEPT 6 pts per td.

 

[da_budman]

I was an eternal wait on QB and then when you think you should draft one, wait a bit longer. This strategy worked great for many years. However, my past 2 seasons, this strategy wasn’t working. So this year, I pivoted to get a top 3 QB whenever I could. The teams with Hurts, Allen or Mahomes are all heading to the playoffs. I doubt I’ll go back to waiting for ever on QB.

In my league: Allen is on the worst team, burrow next to worst, Lamar, mahomes, and Hurt middle to low middle of the pack. Not sure what number Herbert was but his owner is in first place. Top 5 teams qb: Herbert, Lawrence ( there despite taking him fairly early), Tua, Goff, Fields. In my league early qb picks just havent worked out. The problem with the logic of taking the stud qbs early just like you take other positions early is that there are 32 qbs and you only start 12. That leaves 20 qbs to break out not counting the bottom of those 12 qbs also in that pool. PLENTY of qbs out there to not draft a qb early.

Wow, the Allen and Hurts owners must have REALLY screwed up the rest of their draft.

Its not hard to get behing the 8 ball on the rbs and wrs once you use a top 2 round pick on a qb.....but yeah they didnt draft so well after that..... especially at rb.

 

[Tanner9919]

nowadays, rookie QBs are more than able to keep the ship afloat. if you're in a 10 team league, even QB 11 has significant value - spending big draft picks on a QB is a waste.

 

[josefrees]

I don’t believe in generic ideas like “don’t draft X early” because every year and drafting situation is different.

I think the question is more complicated than list of top players and ADP. Drafting QB early simplifies the position. No depending on your sleeper being there whenever you expect them to be, no hoping when someone does go off you have the money or priority, no looking at two or three QBs trying to figure out wtf to do.

Also it might just be me but as the season wears on you just aren’t finding QB waiver wire gems as often as you are finding emerging WRs and RBs.

BTW I’m p sure in standard scoring Mahomes is like 7 points from QB4 and 11 off of QB3. Not as bad y’all are making it out to be

 

[pollardsvision]

I've never spent up for QB's even if I should, but this year doesn't seem all that different from year's past.

Seems like 2022 was a bit of an anomaly in that there were 3 QB's hitting 27 points a game, and I'm not sure there's ever been such a gap from the top 3-4 to the rest.

This year, you've just got Allen/Hurts down a couple points a game, Mahomes, a lot. But still Allen/Hurts is a big advantage off the bus, even if not quite as much as in 2022.

 

[Deamon]

nowadays, rookie QBs are more than able to keep the ship afloat. if you're in a 10 team league, even QB 11 has significant value - spending big draft picks on a QB is a waste.

Ya, all those Watson/D. Jones/Cousins/Geno owners that took QB around pick 11 are really happy right now. Heck, some people who waited on QB might have even grabbed 2 of those.

Yet we're discussing someone taking QB8 in round 2 like it's some kind of team crushing pick, and that they should have waited and potentially got guys who are doing awful/out for the year.

"Oh, but those owners easily could have just picked up Howell/Stroud!".... No, no they couldn't have. Lots of Mahomes/Fields/Lawrence/Burrow owners own those players.

This was the year that the experts said "Don't miss out on one of the big 6 QBs this year", and damn were they right as all 6 are healthy and playing at a QB1 level right now.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

I think one advantage you have with choosing a QB early is that the position is "settled" for you. That can help with lineup decisions and even save roster spots.

Last year I drafted Mahomes and didn't bother to draft a backup. I knew I'd start him every week, and if he got hurt I'd be in trouble anyway, so a waiver guy would be just as mediocre as a dart throw on a third-tier QB in the draft. That gave me an "extra" bench spot all year. I don't even remember who I picked up for his bye, or whether I won that week or not.

I ended up winning the league, but I know it could have gone very differently if he had gotten hurt. I took that risk, and never had to think about who to start at that position. Plus I had one extra skill player on my bench over my competition. So there are advantages aside from whether they justify where you take them.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

Mahomes is 8th in my league too, however he's at 24.9 points per game. Justin Herbert is at #3 at 25.7 points per game. That means Mahomes is basically tied for 3rd best QB so far this year with 6 other QBs.
Mahomes points each game in my league: 24, 30, 30, 17, 24, 25, 46, 8, 20.
Like I said, I'm happy I have Mahomes as my QB1 (in a 2 QB keeper auction league).

This just illustrates though that taking the QB earlier is not necessarily a benefit. If QBs 3 through 8 are less than a PPG apart, give me the 8th one drafted and I'll use my earlier picks on ideally better WRs and RBs.

Obviously nuance in each leagues setup - league size, scoring and lineup matters, but when QB scoring is this flat which seems to be the norm most years in most leagues, it lessens the reward for taking one early and increases the risk due to lost opportunity at other positions.

You also point out an additional aspect many are overlooking by just looking at the total points scored and that is consistency. How many of Mahomes weeks were say a top 6 performance compared to the other guys that have similar totals. Are they more boom/bust with a couple #1 overall weeks then a bunch of 15-18 overall weekly finishes where they shouldn't be started. Unless you're in a total points league or best ball, consistency has value that shouldn't be overlooked.

I think the difference is you knew Mahomes will be one of those eight before the season started. You might not have the same confidence in who the other guys would be, and could miss on your pick trying to get one. Burning the early pick on the QB might be costly, but you're buying security in those cases, as you're relatively sure they'll be among the best. "Relatively" being the operative word, of course. Every decision carries risk.

 

[-jb-]

We tend to make this more difficult than it needs to be. All you needed to do this year was to draft Tyreek in the first, Mahomes in the second, ETN in the third, Keenan in the fourth, Kittle in the fifth, Kamara in the sixth, and Evans in the seventh.

Cmon guys it’s not that hard.

 

[jobarules]

We tend to make this more difficult than it needs to be. All you needed to do this year was to draft Tyreek in the first, Mahomes in the second, ETN in the third, Keenan in the fourth, Kittle in the fifth, Kamara in the sixth, and Evans in the seventh.

Cmon guys it’s not that hard.

Huh?

 

[jvdesigns2002]

This is one of the reasons why I chose to make the only fantasy league that I play in a 12 team superflex league where you have to start 1 qb- but can start up to 2. In a single qb 10-12 team league- I think drafting a qb in the first 2 rounds is hard to justify as there isnt much positional scarcity, and the level of advantage between the top qbs versus ones that can be got several rounds later doesnt justify the incremental advantages that can be gained each round by waiting.

 

[Scoresman]

I'm a Hurts owner in my auction league, not making the playoffs. But I also drafted Chubb and Dobbins.

 

[FairWarning]

Mahomes points each game in my league: 24, 30, 30, 17, 24, 25, 46, 8, 20.

Like I said, I'm happy I have Mahomes as my QB1 (in a 2 QB keeper auction league).

This just illustrates though that taking the QB earlier is not necessarily a benefit. If QBs 3 through 8 are less than a PPG apart, give me the 8th one drafted and I'll use my earlier picks on ideally better WRs and RBs.

Obviously nuance in each leagues setup - league size, scoring and lineup matters, but when QB scoring is this flat which seems to be the norm most years in most leagues, it lessens the reward for taking one early and increases the risk due to lost opportunity at other positions.

You also point out an additional aspect many are overlooking by just looking at the total points scored and that is consistency. How many of Mahomes weeks were say a top 6 performance compared to the other guys that have similar totals. Are they more boom/bust with a couple #1 overall weeks then a bunch of 15-18 overall weekly finishes where they shouldn't be started. Unless you're in a total points league or best ball, consistency has value that shouldn't be overlooked.

I think the difference is you knew Mahomes will be one of those eight before the season started. You might not have the same confidence in who the other guys would be, and could miss on your pick trying to get one. Burning the early pick on the QB might be costly, but you're buying security in those cases, as you're relatively sure they'll be among the best. "Relatively" being the operative word, of course. Every decision carries risk.

i drafted Goff in the 7th-8th round and have the same feeling of not worrying about a qb as a Mahomes owner. Prescott went in the 10th round, Howell was a FA. What this theory is missing is you can find a qb to get 20+ points in later rounds far easier than a RB that scores 20. People hoard RB’s, not qbs.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Here's FBG's top 12 QBs ranked going into the season (and what place they are in now)

Mahomes (QB8)
Allen (QB1)
Hurts (QB2)
Burrow (QB17 but injured and rising)
Herbert (QB4)
Jackson (QB5)

Lawrence (QB19)
Fields (QB24)
Cousins (QB13... and dropping)
Watson (QB29)
D. Jones (QB33)
G. Smith (QB20)

If anything, this shows that those who waited on QB and didn't nab one of the "Big 6" this year are suffering the most.

Those that went QB early and got one of the "Big 6", have been overall rewarded very nicely.

Drafting QB early this year, was for the most part a very good strategy. Really don't understand the OP in the slightest.

I am fine with people taking a QB early, and even do it early myself sometimes, but I think if you're taking one early your standards have to be higher than "I drafted them in the top 6 and they're currently in the top 6 so that's a win".

If you draft a QB in the first few rounds you're shooting for a guy that finishes as QB1 or QB2, and not just by a little bit. A guy that leaves QB3 and the rest of the pack in the dust.

The fact that Lamar Jackson is scoring 20.53ppg (in my 4pt/TD league) is almost irrelevant. The point is he's not scoring 28ppg, so he's kind of a bust. 20.53ppg is fine, but is entirely replaceable, easily. Baker is scoring 19ppg and is still on the WW in that league. Dobbs is almost 20ppg and could be acquired easily. Russ 19.5ppg, etc. Even Jordan Love is scoring 19ppg.

In my league there are 19 QBs scoring 19+ ppg and only 12 QBs need to start. So a top 3 round pick scoring 20.53ppg is not a win, IMO.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

It's not so much what has the QB done, it's how much more has he done compared to his peers. Looking at the numbers, Allen and Hurts are pretty solidly in the highest tier. Then you've got the rest of the top 12 who are all within 2ish PPG of each other, but half of the QBs in this tier were wait on QB candidates or not draftable at all.

Outside of Hurts/Allen, just wait a while and draft 2-3 low tier guys.

Of course next year, Mahomes may bounce back to elite tier, or Allen finally gets the injury everyone's predicting. Not as easy as it sounds.

I mean sure. Good luck waiting and guessing on the next howell/stroud.

So easy in hindsight, but I think this year has proven the opposite of the intent of this thread, and the higher drafted qbs are ALMOST all performing up to expectations more than normal.

And with the insane number of qb injuries this year (I think close to half of NFL starting qbs have missed games), the fact that those clear top 6 qbs going into the season have barely missed any games at all (just burrow?).

But in a sense it is kind of easy. Because unlike every other position, there is very little competition in the later rounds and on the WW once things get rolling because such a high percentage of the league is set at QB and not interested in using BB money or roster space on another one.

When a WR like Puka emerges you're always bidding against 11 other teams to get him. When a QB like Howell emerges you may only be competing against 3-4 teams because the teams with Mahomes, Allen, etc aren't going to bother. And as the season continues that number only dwindles further as the teams that got the last guy drop out of the running too. So when a guy like Dobbs ends up being better than expected in Minnesota he might be free, or only have 1 other team to compete against, simply because almost the entire rest of the league has no need for him.

Similar in the draft. In most cases those guys drafting the top 6 or 7 QBs aren't even going to bother drafting a backup, so there is less competition in the later rounds if you want to take a couple of shots. And if you miss, you've got little competition for the first few breakouts. Or, now, in most of my leagues Baker Mayfield is just sitting on the wire completely free, despite only scoring about 2.5PPG less than QB6 (Mahomes).

And that doesn't even factor in that if somehow you miss out on all of that, they're extremely cheap to trade for because if you've missed out on all of those guys there will be plenty of teams with extra QBs and you're probably the only team in the league willing to give them ANYTHING for one of them that they don't need.

 

[Biabreakable]

Several of the recent posts make good sense from a roster construction perspective in start 1 QB leagues.

Half the teams who do have top QB will not focus as much on having a good back up QB because they never intend to use that QB. Meanwhile the teams that don't may carry more QBs and play the matchups more, even streaming at times if they can and still get competitive production out of the position if they choose the right QB to start most weeks.

The 2nd approach takes more work and does tie up more roster spots to execute than the teams who have one star QB and can use more roster spots on other positions as well as time put into which position groups they are focusing on.

I have head some say it's a waste of a roster spot to carry a back up QB when you already have a top QB you drafted early and I agree with that to an extent.

But a team with a top QB could still add back up QBs to block their competition from being able to get them so easily. Possibly even trading those back ups for other positions at some point if they were not so readily available.

It really just comes down to starting requirements and roster management.

My focus is more coming from start 2 QB leagues or Superflex which is essentially the same thing.

Fantasy managers get away with too much in start one QB leagues due to managers not carrying as many QBs as perhaps they should.

Eta - one team can't carry enough back up QBs to block the don't have elite QBs enough, but if all the teams were carrying back up QBs too, well then the available pool for the don't haves would be much weaker.

 

[-jb-]

We tend to make this more difficult than it needs to be. All you needed to do this year was to draft Tyreek in the first, Mahomes in the second, ETN in the third, Keenan in the fourth, Kittle in the fifth, Kamara in the sixth, and Evans in the seventh.

Cmon guys it’s not that hard.

Huh?

Just being snarky.

 

[Wise Old Owl]

The problem with waiting on a QB is that you could have drafted Aaron Rodgers, Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins or Deshaun Watson. No one was going into their draft expecting to start Stroud as their QB1. Even if you waited until the 2nd tier of QBs, Dak and Burrow probably lost you weeks so far this season. Lawrence is borderline unrosterable. Sure if you hit on Tua or Herbert you came out ahead but that's like arguing drafting Pollard was a bad idea because you knew Brian Robinson was going to outperform him rounds later. Yeah its true, but its not predicatable.

The real reason people were drafting the top 3 (Allen, Mahomes, Hurts) was due to their floor not their upside. Which has proven to be mostly correct.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The problem with waiting on a QB is that you could have drafted Aaron Rodgers, Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins or Deshaun Watson.

Even if you did, who cares? Baker Mayfield, Russell Wilson, Jordan Love, and Josh Dobbs are all scoring less than 1.5ppg less than a guy like Lamar Jackson, and in most leagues one of them is probably sitting on the WW, or was acquired by the Rodgers/Jones/Cousins owner already, and is essentially putting up almost as many points as guys were expecting out of Rodgers/Jones anyway.

If Rodgers/Jones hadn't gotten hurt and were scoring around the same as Lamar Jackson right now most people would be happy with that out of them. But they can get that exact same production out of Baker/Love/Russ/etc just as easily. Rodgers/Jones staying healthy wouldn't even be that much of an advantage over the guys they can still start in their place anyway.

Lamar Jackson being drafted in the 3rd round and ending up as a mid-QB1 scoring 20.53ppg is a much bigger bust than Daniel Jones being drafted in the 10th round and being completely useless.

 

[Judge Smails]

nowadays, rookie QBs are more than able to keep the ship afloat. if you're in a 10 team league, even QB 11 has significant value - spending big draft picks on a QB is a waste.

Ya, all those Watson/D. Jones/Cousins/Geno owners that took QB around pick 11 are really happy right now. Heck, some people who waited on QB might have even grabbed 2 of those.

Yet we're discussing someone taking QB8 in round 2 like it's some kind of team crushing pick, and that they should have waited and potentially got guys who are doing awful/out for the year.

"Oh, but those owners easily could have just picked up Howell/Stroud!".... No, no they couldn't have. Lots of Mahomes/Fields/Lawrence/Burrow owners own those players.

This was the year that the experts said "Don't miss out on one of the big 6 QBs this year", and damn were they right as all 6 are healthy and playing at a QB1 level right now.

People who took Cousins were THRILLED until the injury

 

[jobarules]

nowadays, rookie QBs are more than able to keep the ship afloat. if you're in a 10 team league, even QB 11 has significant value - spending big draft picks on a QB is a waste.

Ya, all those Watson/D. Jones/Cousins/Geno owners that took QB around pick 11 are really happy right now. Heck, some people who waited on QB might have even grabbed 2 of those.

Yet we're discussing someone taking QB8 in round 2 like it's some kind of team crushing pick, and that they should have waited and potentially got guys who are doing awful/out for the year.

"Oh, but those owners easily could have just picked up Howell/Stroud!".... No, no they couldn't have. Lots of Mahomes/Fields/Lawrence/Burrow owners own those players.

This was the year that the experts said "Don't miss out on one of the big 6 QBs this year", and damn were they right as all 6 are healthy and playing at a QB1 level right now.

People who took Cousins were THRILLED until the injury

I was. And when he got hurt I picked up Howell. I lost nothing

 

[da_budman]

Here's FBG's top 12 QBs ranked going into the season (and what place they are in now)

Mahomes
(QB8)
Allen
(QB1)
Hurts
(QB2)
Burrow
(QB17 but injured and rising)
Herbert
(QB4)
Jackson
(QB5)

Lawrence
(QB19)
Fields
(QB24)
Cousins
(QB13... and dropping)
Watson
(QB29)
D. Jones
(QB33)
G. Smith
(QB20)

If anything, this shows that those who waited on QB and didn't nab one of the "Big 6" this year are suffering the most.

Those that went QB early and got one of the "Big 6", have been overall rewarded very nicely.

Drafting QB early this year, was for the most part a very good strategy. Really don't understand the OP in the slightest

I don’t believe in generic ideas like “don’t draft X early” because every year and drafting situation is different.

I think the question is more complicated than list of top players and ADP. Drafting QB early simplifies the position. No depending on your sleeper being there whenever you expect them to be, no hoping when someone does go off you have the money or priority, no looking at two or three QBs trying to figure out wtf to do.

Also it might just be me but as the season wears on you just aren’t finding QB waiver wire gems as often as you are finding emerging WRs and RBs.

BTW I’m p sure in standard scoring Mahomes is like 7 points from QB4 and 11 off of QB3. Not as bad y’all are making it out to be

in 6pt per td he is qb 6 and less than a point per game from qb 3..... he is also less than a point and a half from qb 9. If I am using a top 2 round pick on a qb I expect more of a bump from him than a point and a half from qb2 3-9.... Had I decided to draft a qb early It never would have been Mahomes. Mahomes is a great football qb with a very old top receiver and 6 or 7 other wrs, who, when you play them, dont come even close to other teams top 3 wrs and no Mahomes magic will ever make them that. While you dont think it was bad I ask you where Mahomes was drafted versus: Prescott, Tua, Herbert, Stroud, Howell, and Purdy. Now look at all the players you could have had in between where mahomes was drafted and these guys were drafted. The issue with taking a qb early isnt that they dont produce more. The issue is how they compare to the glut of QBs you can draft sometimes MUCH later and compare that to what you miss out on while the late qb drafters are always a round earlier than you till they end up drafting a qb. There is simply too much of a supply and demand issue for me to draft a qb early. Im not saying a guy who takes a qb in round 1 or 2 cant have a good team. Im saying it is less likely when you go qb early.

 

[da_budman]

Here's FBG's top 12 QBs ranked going into the season (and what place they are in now)

Mahomes (QB8)
Allen (QB1)
Hurts (QB2)
Burrow (QB17 but injured and rising)
Herbert (QB4)
Jackson (QB5)

Lawrence (QB19)
Fields (QB24)
Cousins (QB13... and dropping)
Watson (QB29)
D. Jones (QB33)
G. Smith (QB20)

If anything, this shows that those who waited on QB and didn't nab one of the "Big 6" this year are suffering the most.

Those that went QB early and got one of the "Big 6", have been overall rewarded very nicely.

Drafting QB early this year, was for the most part a very good strategy. Really don't understand the OP in the slightest.

The test isnt whether the top 6 were remarkably the top 6 ( I will even give you burrow and say they are) The test is whether that helped the overall teams that drafted them. Your league might be different but I can tell you in my league the only one who ended up with a top team is the Herbert owner. Even in a perfect world ( and this outcome is dang near the definition of a perfect situation for the side of the discussion you agree with) STILL thdrafted fields and ce results thus far say take a qb later is the better strategy. Team 1 has herbert and stroud. 2nd place team has Lawrence and Purdy 3rd place team drafted tua and wilson 4th place (me) drafted richardson and geno smith....I now have geno, murray and Goff ( who I traded for with some of my depth that I had BECAUSE I didnt take a qb early) and 5th ousins. I realize this is a very small sample size BUT Ive seen it in this league that has been in existence since 1997, The guys who draft well and take a qb early far worse than those of us who dont even consider taking a qb till round 8. My general strategy is usually wait till round 8 then draft 1 of the last starters and 1 of the first backups. That gives me 2 chances at a top 7-8 starter usually. There are 3 of us that regularly draft a qb late and it wouldnt surprise me if we end up with 30- 40 of the championships.

 

[da_budman]

I think one advantage you have with choosing a QB early is that the position is "settled" for you. That can help with lineup decisions and even save roster spots.

Last year I drafted Mahomes and didn't bother to draft a backup. I knew I'd start him every week, and if he got hurt I'd be in trouble anyway, so a waiver guy would be just as mediocre as a dart throw on a third-tier QB in the draft. That gave me an "extra" bench spot all year. I don't even remember who I picked up for his bye, or whether I won that week or not.

I ended up winning the league, but I know it could have gone very differently if he had gotten hurt. I took that risk, and never had to think about who to start at that position. Plus I had one extra skill player on my bench over my competition. So there are advantages aside from whether they justify where you take them.

That is certainly one of the upsides to take a qb early but also a downside. The other downside is your top qb ( other position for that matter) might not end up being the high level qb that you drafted him to be meanwhile the guys like me who generally take 2 upside qbs at the 8-10 round range have 2 shots at coming up with a decent starter.

 

[da_budman]

To those of you who draft a qb early I implore you to keep doing it. The taking your qb late strategy doesnt work without ya!!! If the best qbs started slipping to the 6th -7th round the taking a qb or 2 late strategy is dead in the water.

 

[Dr_Zaius]

Adding to the anecdata, top 6 teams in league
1. Herbert
2. Burrow
3. Howell (+Tua)
4. Stroud (+Fields)
5. Dak
6. Lewis and Young (!)

I've taken QBs high in the past (Rodgers, Allen). It can work out fine, but if you're not getting top production it does set you back.

I do think this year has been a bit of an outlier as it's unusual to be able to get guys like Stroud, Purdy, and Howell off of the waiver wire. Typically it's a lot easier to get a league-winning RB off of the wire than WR, QB, or TE.

 

[Deamon]

nowadays, rookie QBs are more than able to keep the ship afloat. if you're in a 10 team league, even QB 11 has significant value - spending big draft picks on a QB is a waste.

Ya, all those Watson/D. Jones/Cousins/Geno owners that took QB around pick 11 are really happy right now. Heck, some people who waited on QB might have even grabbed 2 of those.

Yet we're discussing someone taking QB8 in round 2 like it's some kind of team crushing pick, and that they should have waited and potentially got guys who are doing awful/out for the year.

"Oh, but those owners easily could have just picked up Howell/Stroud!".... No, no they couldn't have. Lots of Mahomes/Fields/Lawrence/Burrow owners own those players.

This was the year that the experts said "Don't miss out on one of the big 6 QBs this year", and damn were they right as all 6 are healthy and playing at a QB1 level right now.

People who took Cousins were THRILLED until the injury

Sure. And people who took Mahomes were thrilled the first 7 weeks of the season too (He was QB2 overall until week 8)

 

[Ilov80s]

Hurts has 1 bye week and people are ready to scrap their whole draft strategy? I would think if you ask everyone who plays fantasy what they think of their 3rd round picks, the people who took Hurts are among the most satisfied by a wide wide margin.

 

[jobarules]

nowadays, rookie QBs are more than able to keep the ship afloat. if you're in a 10 team league, even QB 11 has significant value - spending big draft picks on a QB is a waste.

Ya, all those Watson/D. Jones/Cousins/Geno owners that took QB around pick 11 are really happy right now. Heck, some people who waited on QB might have even grabbed 2 of those.

Yet we're discussing someone taking QB8 in round 2 like it's some kind of team crushing pick, and that they should have waited and potentially got guys who are doing awful/out for the year.

"Oh, but those owners easily could have just picked up Howell/Stroud!".... No, no they couldn't have. Lots of Mahomes/Fields/Lawrence/Burrow owners own those players.

This was the year that the experts said "Don't miss out on one of the big 6 QBs this year", and damn were they right as all 6 are healthy and playing at a QB1 level right now.

People who took Cousins were THRILLED until the injury

Sure. And people who took Mahomes were thrilled the first 7 weeks of the season too (He was QB2 overall until week 8)

I don't know about thrilled. He fell short of his projections 5 of 7 weeks

 

[Desert_Power]

I think this year was one of the worst in terms of people doing rankings forgetting value based drafting. Early QBs, Jefferson at #1, and Kelce in the first round were common mistakes.

 

[josefrees]

Here's FBG's top 12 QBs ranked going into the season (and what place they are in now)

Mahomes
(QB8)
Allen
(QB1)
Hurts
(QB2)
Burrow
(QB17 but injured and rising)
Herbert
(QB4)
Jackson
(QB5)

Lawrence
(QB19)
Fields
(QB24)
Cousins
(QB13... and dropping)
Watson
(QB29)
D. Jones
(QB33)
G. Smith
(QB20)

If anything, this shows that those who waited on QB and didn't nab one of the "Big 6" this year are suffering the most.

Those that went QB early and got one of the "Big 6", have been overall rewarded very nicely.

Drafting QB early this year, was for the most part a very good strategy. Really don't understand the OP in the slightest

I don’t believe in generic ideas like “don’t draft X early” because every year and drafting situation is different.

I think the question is more complicated than list of top players and ADP. Drafting QB early simplifies the position. No depending on your sleeper being there whenever you expect them to be, no hoping when someone does go off you have the money or priority, no looking at two or three QBs trying to figure out wtf to do.

Also it might just be me but as the season wears on you just aren’t finding QB waiver wire gems as often as you are finding emerging WRs and RBs.

BTW I’m p sure in standard scoring Mahomes is like 7 points from QB4 and 11 off of QB3. Not as bad y’all are making it out to be

in 6pt per td he is qb 6 and less than a point per game from qb 3..... he is also less than a point and a half from qb 9. If I am using a top 2 round pick on a qb I expect more of a bump from him than a point and a half from qb2 3-9.... Had I decided to draft a qb early It never would have been Mahomes. Mahomes is a great football qb with a very old top receiver and 6 or 7 other wrs, who, when you play them, dont come even close to other teams top 3 wrs and no Mahomes magic will ever make them that. While you dont think it was bad I ask you where Mahomes was drafted versus: Prescott, Tua, Herbert, Stroud, Howell, and Purdy. Now look at all the players you could have had in between where mahomes was drafted and these guys were drafted. The issue with taking a qb early isnt that they dont produce more. The issue is how they compare to the glut of QBs you can draft sometimes MUCH later and compare that to what you miss out on while the late qb drafters are always a round earlier than you till they end up drafting a qb. There is simply too much of a supply and demand issue for me to draft a qb early. Im not saying a guy who takes a qb in round 1 or 2 cant have a good team. Im saying it is less likely when you go qb early.

You are making a great argument for why Mahomes shouldn’t have been drafted so high but your point should also apply to QB1 and QB2 if drafting QBs early is bad. Like I said every situation is different. None of those qualifiers apply to Hurts and Allen. I only mentioned Mahomes because people that look at QB8 with no qualification could be misled by their value

 

[da_budman]

Here's FBG's top 12 QBs ranked going into the season (and what place they are in now)

Mahomes
(QB8)
Allen
(QB1)
Hurts
(QB2)
Burrow
(QB17 but injured and rising)
Herbert
(QB4)
Jackson
(QB5)

Lawrence
(QB19)
Fields
(QB24)
Cousins
(QB13... and dropping)
Watson
(QB29)
D. Jones
(QB33)
G. Smith
(QB20)

If anything, this shows that those who waited on QB and didn't nab one of the "Big 6" this year are suffering the most.

Those that went QB early and got one of the "Big 6", have been overall rewarded very nicely.

Drafting QB early this year, was for the most part a very good strategy. Really don't understand the OP in the slightest

I don’t believe in generic ideas like “don’t draft X early” because every year and drafting situation is different.

I think the question is more complicated than list of top players and ADP. Drafting QB early simplifies the position. No depending on your sleeper being there whenever you expect them to be, no hoping when someone does go off you have the money or priority, no looking at two or three QBs trying to figure out wtf to do.

Also it might just be me but as the season wears on you just aren’t finding QB waiver wire gems as often as you are finding emerging WRs and RBs.

BTW I’m p sure in standard scoring Mahomes is like 7 points from QB4 and 11 off of QB3. Not as bad y’all are making it out to be

in 6pt per td he is qb 6 and less than a point per game from qb 3..... he is also less than a point and a half from qb 9. If I am using a top 2 round pick on a qb I expect more of a bump from him than a point and a half from qb2 3-9.... Had I decided to draft a qb early It never would have been Mahomes. Mahomes is a great football qb with a very old top receiver and 6 or 7 other wrs, who, when you play them, dont come even close to other teams top 3 wrs and no Mahomes magic will ever make them that. While you dont think it was bad I ask you where Mahomes was drafted versus: Prescott, Tua, Herbert, Stroud, Howell, and Purdy. Now look at all the players you could have had in between where mahomes was drafted and these guys were drafted. The issue with taking a qb early isnt that they dont produce more. The issue is how they compare to the glut of QBs you can draft sometimes MUCH later and compare that to what you miss out on while the late qb drafters are always a round earlier than you till they end up drafting a qb. There is simply too much of a supply and demand issue for me to draft a qb early. Im not saying a guy who takes a qb in round 1 or 2 cant have a good team. Im saying it is less likely when you go qb early.

You are making a great argument for why Mahomes shouldn’t have been drafted so high but your point should also apply to QB1 and QB2 if drafting QBs early is bad. Like I said every situation is different. None of those qualifiers apply to Hurts and Allen. I only mentioned Mahomes because people that look at QB8 with no qualification could be misled by their value

Well I had other posts including them (and the entire top 6) Even though Allen and Hurts have certainly distanced themselves from the pack Allens owner is last in my league and Hurts owner is in 7th. BOTH of them ended upon the short end of the running back runs and ended up with awful rbs.... Im saying this is a very good year for the top qbs performing like the top qbs they were drafted to be and still it hasnt turned out well.

 

[N Zone]

We tend to make this more difficult than it needs to be. All you needed to do this year was to draft Tyreek in the first, Mahomes in the second, ETN in the third, Keenan in the fourth, Kittle in the fifth, Kamara in the sixth, and Evans in the seventh.

Cmon guys it’s not that hard.

My league is a 3 keeper league and the only league I play in, and my Keepers are Tyreek Hill, Mahomes, and Etienne. Yes, I'm alone in 1st. Auction league and I also drafted J Chase, K Walker, D Montgomery, Bijan, DJ Moore, and Swift who I don't play, and Christian Watson who was my worst pick so far but I've never started him either.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

I think one advantage you have with choosing a QB early is that the position is "settled" for you. That can help with lineup decisions and even save roster spots.

Last year I drafted Mahomes and didn't bother to draft a backup. I knew I'd start him every week, and if he got hurt I'd be in trouble anyway, so a waiver guy would be just as mediocre as a dart throw on a third-tier QB in the draft. That gave me an "extra" bench spot all year. I don't even remember who I picked up for his bye, or whether I won that week or not.

I ended up winning the league, but I know it could have gone very differently if he had gotten hurt. I took that risk, and never had to think about who to start at that position. Plus I had one extra skill player on my bench over my competition. So there are advantages aside from whether they justify where you take them.

That is certainly one of the upsides to take a qb early but also a downside. The other downside is your top qb ( other position for that matter) might not end up being the high level qb that you drafted him to be meanwhile the guys like me who generally take 2 upside qbs at the 8-10 round range have 2 shots at coming up with a decent starter.

True. I just feel like I don't need a guy like Mahomes to be the #1 QB. Just in the top tier to give me a general advantage over an opponent. I feel like the odds of a mid-range QB making that jump to the top tier isn't great if you only have two shots at it. You might hit one, but I think you're more likely to end up with two mid-range QBs that take up an extra spot. If you hit that's very different. I just feel like it's a bigger risk than it's worth factoring in the extra spot.

Now that I think about it, maybe I'm just thinking of Mahomes and Hurts instead of a random top QB. I wouldn't have felt the same way about Herbert or Burrow on draft day, even though they were considered top tier. My leagues are pretty QB heavy, so missing out on a top one puts you in a real deficit. I'd rather pay the price for the "sure thing," or as sure as we can be in this game.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

Mahomes points each game in my league: 24, 30, 30, 17, 24, 25, 46, 8, 20.

Like I said, I'm happy I have Mahomes as my QB1 (in a 2 QB keeper auction league).

This just illustrates though that taking the QB earlier is not necessarily a benefit. If QBs 3 through 8 are less than a PPG apart, give me the 8th one drafted and I'll use my earlier picks on ideally better WRs and RBs.

Obviously nuance in each leagues setup - league size, scoring and lineup matters, but when QB scoring is this flat which seems to be the norm most years in most leagues, it lessens the reward for taking one early and increases the risk due to lost opportunity at other positions.

You also point out an additional aspect many are overlooking by just looking at the total points scored and that is consistency. How many of Mahomes weeks were say a top 6 performance compared to the other guys that have similar totals. Are they more boom/bust with a couple #1 overall weeks then a bunch of 15-18 overall weekly finishes where they shouldn't be started. Unless you're in a total points league or best ball, consistency has value that shouldn't be overlooked.

I think the difference is you knew Mahomes will be one of those eight before the season started. You might not have the same confidence in who the other guys would be, and could miss on your pick trying to get one. Burning the early pick on the QB might be costly, but you're buying security in those cases, as you're relatively sure they'll be among the best. "Relatively" being the operative word, of course. Every decision carries risk.

i drafted Goff in the 7th-8th round and have the same feeling of not worrying about a qb as a Mahomes owner. Prescott went in the 10th round, Howell was a FA. What this theory is missing is you can find a qb to get 20+ points in later rounds far easier than a RB that scores 20. People hoard RB’s, not qbs.

Of course you're right. You can find one. But will you? Maybe, maybe not. You did this year, which is great. But what if a person using that strategy had gone with Lawrence, and backed them up with a young QB with upside...like Pickett? They're in the hole every week, and will need to make up points in other places. Choosing Goff was a great pick, but you took a backup, too, didn't you? QB takes up two spots for as long as you aren't sure who you're starting each week, and that assumes you start the gem QB from the beginning, and don't leave those points on the bench while you're trying out figure out who the team's starter is.

 

[FairWarning]

I would rather take the chance of picking up a qb and panning out vs an elite qb and have him underwhelm

 

[Biabreakable]

I would rather take the chance of picking up a qb and panning out vs an elite qb and have him underwhelm

You have to know your league.

Do the math. Some leagues you may have more opportunities to pick suitable starters in free agency, some leagues that may be more difficult.

If the majority of your league waits, then you can wait too.

Tons of seasons have been won by being able to get that top 12 QB late in the draft or from a free agent pick up. I have done that many times.

And there is always the option of playing the QBs by match ups that can line up well to get more out of lesser QBs.

Sometimes you can't get that late round gem though or you pick the wrong starters along the way.

Vs some teams with the high performing QBs you are at a disadvantage vs those teams the whole season from day one and if your other positions are not performing well enough then you can't make up the difference.

 

[BassNBrew]

I was an eternal wait on QB and then when you think you should draft one, wait a bit longer. This strategy worked great for many years. However, my past 2 seasons, this strategy wasn’t working. So this year, I pivoted to get a top 3 QB whenever I could. The teams with Hurts, Allen or Mahomes are all heading to the playoffs. I doubt I’ll go back to waiting for ever on QB.

In my league: Allen is on the worst team, burrow next to worst, Lamar, mahomes, and Hurt middle to low middle of the pack. Not sure what number Herbert was but his owner is in first place. Top 5 teams qb: Herbert, Lawrence ( there despite taking him fairly early), Tua, Goff, Fields. In my league early qb picks just havent worked out. The problem with the logic of taking the stud qbs early just like you take other positions early is that there are 32 qbs and you only start 12. That leaves 20 qbs to break out not counting the bottom of those 12 qbs also in that pool. PLENTY of qbs out there to not draft a qb early.

Wow, the Allen and Hurts owners must have REALLY screwed up the rest of their draft.

I sure did.....

Jefferson - hurt
Andrews - hurt
Hurts - Stud
Aaron Jones - hurt/bust
Watson - hurt/bust
Cooks - bust
Kamara - Only thing keeping me out of the celler
Davis - meh
Thomas/Perine/Gainwell/Doubs - yawn or bust

If I didn't draft Hurts I would have taken Higgins/DK/Allen/Smith.

Really it comes down to Jefferson. It he doesn't miss time my middle of the pack team is in playoff contention.

 

[acarey50]

Mahomes points each game in my league: 24, 30, 30, 17, 24, 25, 46, 8, 20.

Like I said, I'm happy I have Mahomes as my QB1 (in a 2 QB keeper auction league).

This just illustrates though that taking the QB earlier is not necessarily a benefit. If QBs 3 through 8 are less than a PPG apart, give me the 8th one drafted and I'll use my earlier picks on ideally better WRs and RBs.

Obviously nuance in each leagues setup - league size, scoring and lineup matters, but when QB scoring is this flat which seems to be the norm most years in most leagues, it lessens the reward for taking one early and increases the risk due to lost opportunity at other positions.

You also point out an additional aspect many are overlooking by just looking at the total points scored and that is consistency. How many of Mahomes weeks were say a top 6 performance compared to the other guys that have similar totals. Are they more boom/bust with a couple #1 overall weeks then a bunch of 15-18 overall weekly finishes where they shouldn't be started. Unless you're in a total points league or best ball, consistency has value that shouldn't be overlooked.

I think the difference is you knew Mahomes will be one of those eight before the season started. You might not have the same confidence in who the other guys would be, and could miss on your pick trying to get one. Burning the early pick on the QB might be costly, but you're buying security in those cases, as you're relatively sure they'll be among the best. "Relatively" being the operative word, of course. Every decision carries risk.

i drafted Goff in the 7th-8th round and have the same feeling of not worrying about a qb as a Mahomes owner. Prescott went in the 10th round, Howell was a FA. What this theory is missing is you can find a qb to get 20+ points in later rounds far easier than a RB that scores 20. People hoard RB’s, not qbs.

Of course you're right. You can find one. But will you? Maybe, maybe not. You did this year, which is great. But what if a person using that strategy had gone with Lawrence, and backed them up with a young QB with upside...like Pickett? They're in the hole every week, and will need to make up points in other places. Choosing Goff was a great pick, but you took a backup, too, didn't you? QB takes up two spots for as long as you aren't sure who you're starting each week, and that assumes you start the gem QB from the beginning, and don't leave those points on the bench while you're trying out figure out who the team's starter is.

Generally speaking, in just about any 12 team or smaller 1 QB league, I do not draft a backup QB regardless of how long I wait on QB, which is usually a long time unless the scoring rules are very QB friendly. I try target an upside QB that I think has a favorable schedule for the first 3-4 weeks. If i hit on the guy that outperforms, great, if I don't I'm quick on the waiver wire to get that guy. I treat it very similarly to kicker and defense just that I pay more attention to it.

 

[Deamon]

I was an eternal wait on QB and then when you think you should draft one, wait a bit longer. This strategy worked great for many years. However, my past 2 seasons, this strategy wasn’t working. So this year, I pivoted to get a top 3 QB whenever I could. The teams with Hurts, Allen or Mahomes are all heading to the playoffs. I doubt I’ll go back to waiting for ever on QB.

In my league: Allen is on the worst team, burrow next to worst, Lamar, mahomes, and Hurt middle to low middle of the pack. Not sure what number Herbert was but his owner is in first place. Top 5 teams qb: Herbert, Lawrence ( there despite taking him fairly early), Tua, Goff, Fields. In my league early qb picks just havent worked out. The problem with the logic of taking the stud qbs early just like you take other positions early is that there are 32 qbs and you only start 12. That leaves 20 qbs to break out not counting the bottom of those 12 qbs also in that pool. PLENTY of qbs out there to not draft a qb early.

Wow, the Allen and Hurts owners must have REALLY screwed up the rest of their draft.

I sure did.....

Jefferson - hurt
Andrews - hurt
Hurts - Stud
Aaron Jones - hurt/bust
Watson - hurt/bust
Cooks - bust
Kamara - Only thing keeping me out of the celler
Davis - meh
Thomas/Perine/Gainwell/Doubs - yawn or bust

If I didn't draft Hurts I would have taken Higgins/DK/Allen/Smith.

Really it comes down to Jefferson. It he doesn't miss time my middle of the pack team is in playoff contention.

Damn, if you make the playoffs with that squad I'd be impressed

 

[da_budman]

I would rather take the chance of picking up a qb and panning out vs an elite qb and have him underwhelm

You have to know your league.

Do the math. Some leagues you may have more opportunities to pick suitable starters in free agency, some leagues that may be more difficult.

If the majority of your league waits, then you can wait too.

Tons of seasons have been won by being able to get that top 12 QB late in the draft or from a free agent pick up. I have done that many times.

And there is always the option of playing the QBs by match ups that can line up well to get more out of lesser QBs.

Sometimes you can't get that late round gem though or you pick the wrong starters along the way.

Vs some teams with the high performing QBs you are at a disadvantage vs those teams the whole season from day one and if your other positions are not performing well enough then you can't make up the difference.

Well no matter what strategy you choose to work out the players have to hit. The difference is the stakes are much higher on those early round players. This season the top drafted qbs are doing quite well as compared to rankings but even at that drafting a qb early hasnt worked out in my league ( and never really does as a rule) I THOUGHT I had the best of both worlds in geno.... mid round qb who finished 5th last year who is currently qb 19. I was able to still put together a great team because my "top 5 qb" was drafted in the 8th round I also drafted richardson in the 9th round who was well on his way to being a #1 qb til injury cut his season short. I was able to trade for goff partly because of the depth I built up NOT taking a qb early. Youre never going to have a top 3 qb by taking a qb early but isnt the goal to have a top 3 overall team? p.s. My friend picked even later and took tua and wilson....and turned out even better than me.

 

[Biabreakable]

I would rather take the chance of picking up a qb and panning out vs an elite qb and have him underwhelm

You have to know your league.

Do the math. Some leagues you may have more opportunities to pick suitable starters in free agency, some leagues that may be more difficult.

If the majority of your league waits, then you can wait too.

Tons of seasons have been won by being able to get that top 12 QB late in the draft or from a free agent pick up. I have done that many times.

And there is always the option of playing the QBs by match ups that can line up well to get more out of lesser QBs.

Sometimes you can't get that late round gem though or you pick the wrong starters along the way.

Vs some teams with the high performing QBs you are at a disadvantage vs those teams the whole season from day one and if your other positions are not performing well enough then you can't make up the difference.

Well no matter what strategy you choose to work out the players have to hit. The difference is the stakes are much higher on those early round players. This season the top drafted qbs are doing quite well as compared to rankings but even at that drafting a qb early hasnt worked out in my league ( and never really does as a rule) I THOUGHT I had the best of both worlds in geno.... mid round qb who finished 5th last year who is currently qb 19. I was able to still put together a great team because my "top 5 qb" was drafted in the 8th round I also drafted richardson in the 9th round who was well on his way to being a #1 qb til injury cut his season short. I was able to trade for goff partly because of the depth I built up NOT taking a qb early. Youre never going to have a top 3 qb by taking a qb early but isnt the goal to have a top 3 overall team? p.s. My friend picked even later and took tua and wilson....and turned out even better than me.

Of course it all comes down to who you take and if they hit or not.

In this case the early QB picks not underperforming and the late picks overperforming.

The early picks at WR or RB follow the same criteria. That's great that your early picks there were successful. Many of them have not been.

Both strategies are viable. Neither is wrong. It just depends on who you take.

 

[Lehigh98]

Man - some terrible games from the “elite” QB’s. Especially Allen and Mahomes. Others have struggled as well. Lamar, Burrow etc have had big games but many iffy ones. Lawrence has been terrible with 9 TD’s all year. Maybe only Hurts has delivered so far. QB’s drafted late or not at all have outscored all of them multiple times. Cousins was the best value until he got hurt. 10th rounder. Stroud? Off the wire. On and on.

In any event - I think the draft world corrects and most wait on QB’s next year.

I thought we stopped doing this back in the 90's (QBBC, etc), was it back again for a while and I missed it?

 

[GroveDiesel]

I’m not sure this year is the year to be making a whole lot of determinations on draft strategy. There have been a TON of injuries and just all around screwiness to this year.

Sure taking Mahomes or Burrow or Jackson high might not have worked out great.

But how are the guys who drafted Barkley, Chubb, Henry, Pollard, Harris, Stevenson, Mixon, Bijan feeling?

How about the guys who took Adams, Kupp, Smith, Higgins, Ridley, Metcalf, Samuel, Wilson, Waddle, Olave? Or maybe even Jefferson at this point?

I’m not a smart enough math guy to figure this out, but it’d be kinda interesting to see what the standard deviation is for the difference between draft spot and current ranking for say the top 30-36 guys drafted using ADP. That would be one way to compare how well off you were on average drafting each position at their ADP as compared to other positions. I think.

 

[GroveDiesel]

I think one thing is for sure: if you drafted Christian McCaffery, you have an ENORMOUS advantage.

 

[da_budman]

I would rather take the chance of picking up a qb and panning out vs an elite qb and have him underwhelm

You have to know your league.

Do the math. Some leagues you may have more opportunities to pick suitable starters in free agency, some leagues that may be more difficult.

If the majority of your league waits, then you can wait too.

Tons of seasons have been won by being able to get that top 12 QB late in the draft or from a free agent pick up. I have done that many times.

And there is always the option of playing the QBs by match ups that can line up well to get more out of lesser QBs.

Sometimes you can't get that late round gem though or you pick the wrong starters along the way.

Vs some teams with the high performing QBs you are at a disadvantage vs those teams the whole season from day one and if your other positions are not performing well enough then you can't make up the difference.

Well no matter what strategy you choose to work out the players have to hit. The difference is the stakes are much higher on those early round players. This season the top drafted qbs are doing quite well as compared to rankings but even at that drafting a qb early hasnt worked out in my league ( and never really does as a rule) I THOUGHT I had the best of both worlds in geno.... mid round qb who finished 5th last year who is currently qb 19. I was able to still put together a great team because my "top 5 qb" was drafted in the 8th round I also drafted richardson in the 9th round who was well on his way to being a #1 qb til injury cut his season short. I was able to trade for goff partly because of the depth I built up NOT taking a qb early. Youre never going to have a top 3 qb by taking a qb early but isnt the goal to have a top 3 overall team? p.s. My friend picked even later and took tua and wilson....and turned out even better than me.

Of course it all comes down to who you take and if they hit or not.

In this case the early QB picks not underperforming and the late picks overperforming.

The early picks at WR or RB follow the same criteria. That's great that your early picks there were successful. Many of them have not been.

Both strategies are viable. Neither is wrong. It just depends on who you take.

Well picking the right guys is always the best way to ensure you have a top team but since none of us are good enough to always do that then choosing a strategy that gives you the best chance to win. Yeah neither is wrong. There is no wrong way to draft but the question is what draft strategy is optimal? I haven no issue with people drafting a qb early because without them drafting a qb or 2 late strategy falls flat on its face.

 

[Biabreakable]

I would rather take the chance of picking up a qb and panning out vs an elite qb and have him underwhelm

You have to know your league.

Do the math. Some leagues you may have more opportunities to pick suitable starters in free agency, some leagues that may be more difficult.

If the majority of your league waits, then you can wait too.

Tons of seasons have been won by being able to get that top 12 QB late in the draft or from a free agent pick up. I have done that many times.

And there is always the option of playing the QBs by match ups that can line up well to get more out of lesser QBs.

Sometimes you can't get that late round gem though or you pick the wrong starters along the way.

Vs some teams with the high performing QBs you are at a disadvantage vs those teams the whole season from day one and if your other positions are not performing well enough then you can't make up the difference.

Well no matter what strategy you choose to work out the players have to hit. The difference is the stakes are much higher on those early round players. This season the top drafted qbs are doing quite well as compared to rankings but even at that drafting a qb early hasnt worked out in my league ( and never really does as a rule) I THOUGHT I had the best of both worlds in geno.... mid round qb who finished 5th last year who is currently qb 19. I was able to still put together a great team because my "top 5 qb" was drafted in the 8th round I also drafted richardson in the 9th round who was well on his way to being a #1 qb til injury cut his season short. I was able to trade for goff partly because of the depth I built up NOT taking a qb early. Youre never going to have a top 3 qb by taking a qb early but isnt the goal to have a top 3 overall team? p.s. My friend picked even later and took tua and wilson....and turned out even better than me.

Of course it all comes down to who you take and if they hit or not.

In this case the early QB picks not underperforming and the late picks overperforming.

The early picks at WR or RB follow the same criteria. That's great that your early picks there were successful. Many of them have not been.

Both strategies are viable. Neither is wrong. It just depends on who you take.

Well picking the right guys is always the best way to ensure you have a top team but since none of us are good enough to always do that then choosing a strategy that gives you the best chance to win. Yeah neither is wrong. There is no wrong way to draft but the question is what draft strategy is optimal? I haven no issue with people drafting a qb early because without them drafting a qb or 2 late strategy falls flat on its face.

As far as what is more optimal, I can't answer that. It does depend on what the other 11 teams do to try to determine that, as well as how accurate projections end up being, which an injury here or there totally affects that, as well as other things.

Are you saying that if the teams who draft QB early are doing it wrong if they don't also draft a QB late?

I can see some merits to both approaches. But I want to clarify your statement here first.

 

[da_budman]

I’m not sure this year is the year to be making a whole lot of determinations on draft strategy. There have been a TON of injuries and just all around screwiness to this year.

Sure taking Mahomes or Burrow or Jackson high might not have worked out great.

But how are the guys who drafted Barkley, Chubb, Henry, Pollard, Harris, Stevenson, Mixon, Bijan feeling?

How about the guys who took Adams, Kupp, Smith, Higgins, Ridley, Metcalf, Samuel, Wilson, Waddle, Olave? Or maybe even Jefferson at this point?

I’m not a smart enough math guy to figure this out, but it’d be kinda interesting to see what the standard deviation is for the difference between draft spot and current ranking for say the top 30-36 guys drafted using ADP. That would be one way to compare how well off you were on average drafting each position at their ADP as compared to other positions. I think.

Yeah trying to predict injuries or who is going to underperform/ overperform isnt close to an exact science. Trying to predict injuries is a complete fools errand. Ive got 3 players on your lists and am at 7-3 tied for 2nd place by record and out of first place by 40ish points by points. Nobodys rankings will ever be anywhere close to accurate. To me the early qb vs late qb has its own category and over the long haul can be studied. Joe Bryant has decided that waiting till late to get a qb is the best strategy and in my league that began in 1997 that has certainly proven to be the better strategy. Without those people who DO draft a qb early drafting a qb late completely falls on its face so I encourage any and all of you that draft qbs early to keep up the good work !!!! lol

 

[da_budman]

I would rather take the chance of picking up a qb and panning out vs an elite qb and have him underwhelm

You have to know your league.

Do the math. Some leagues you may have more opportunities to pick suitable starters in free agency, some leagues that may be more difficult.

If the majority of your league waits, then you can wait too.

Tons of seasons have been won by being able to get that top 12 QB late in the draft or from a free agent pick up. I have done that many times.

And there is always the option of playing the QBs by match ups that can line up well to get more out of lesser QBs.

Sometimes you can't get that late round gem though or you pick the wrong starters along the way.

Vs some teams with the high performing QBs you are at a disadvantage vs those teams the whole season from day one and if your other positions are not performing well enough then you can't make up the difference.

Well no matter what strategy you choose to work out the players have to hit. The difference is the stakes are much higher on those early round players. This season the top drafted qbs are doing quite well as compared to rankings but even at that drafting a qb early hasnt worked out in my league ( and never really does as a rule) I THOUGHT I had the best of both worlds in geno.... mid round qb who finished 5th last year who is currently qb 19. I was able to still put together a great team because my "top 5 qb" was drafted in the 8th round I also drafted richardson in the 9th round who was well on his way to being a #1 qb til injury cut his season short. I was able to trade for goff partly because of the depth I built up NOT taking a qb early. Youre never going to have a top 3 qb by taking a qb early but isnt the goal to have a top 3 overall team? p.s. My friend picked even later and took tua and wilson....and turned out even better than me.

Of course it all comes down to who you take and if they hit or not.

In this case the early QB picks not underperforming and the late picks overperforming.

The early picks at WR or RB follow the same criteria. That's great that your early picks there were successful. Many of them have not been.

Both strategies are viable. Neither is wrong. It just depends on who you take.

Well picking the right guys is always the best way to ensure you have a top team but since none of us are good enough to always do that then choosing a strategy that gives you the best chance to win. Yeah neither is wrong. There is no wrong way to draft but the question is what draft strategy is optimal? I haven no issue with people drafting a qb early because without them drafting a qb or 2 late strategy falls flat on its face.

As far as what is more optimal, I can't answer that. It does depend on what the other 11 teams do to try to determine that, as well as how accurate projections end up being, which an injury here or there totally affects that, as well as other things.

Are you saying that if the teams who draft QB early are doing it wrong if they don't also draft a QB late?

I can see some merits to both approaches. But I want to clarify your statement here first.

Obviously there is no right or wrong and if it makes it fun for you by all means take a qb early BUT given the overall supply and demand and the relative value of a 1st/2nd vs a 8-10 round draft pick I think drafting a qb later is the better strategy. Youre right in that it all depends on what others do because if qbs slide then taking a top one in rounds 5 0r 6 makes more sense than waiting till rounds 8-10. Im saying OVERALL drafting one of the last starting qbs then following it up with an early qb2 will generally have you ending up with a better overall team. This year has been an amazing year for top qbs by cheat sheet rankings. Right now 4 of the "top 6" are in the top 6th with Lamar being the outlier at 11th (and burrow who was injured) and yet still the top teams with the top drafted qbs are well bellow averge in my league ( the exception being the Herbert owner who is in first place) Since injuries cant be predicted I think the only extent they play into the strategy discussion is that a lost 1/2 round player hurts your team much more than an 8-10 round player does.

 

[LionOfGosforth]

I’m not sure this year is the year to be making a whole lot of determinations on draft strategy. There have been a TON of injuries and just all around screwiness to this year.

Sure taking Mahomes or Burrow or Jackson high might not have worked out great.

But how are the guys who drafted Barkley, Chubb, Henry, Pollard, Harris, Stevenson, Mixon, Bijan feeling?

How about the guys who took Adams, Kupp, Smith, Higgins, Ridley, Metcalf, Samuel, Wilson, Waddle, Olave? Or maybe even Jefferson at this point?

I’m not a smart enough math guy to figure this out, but it’d be kinda interesting to see what the standard deviation is for the difference between draft spot and current ranking for say the top 30-36 guys drafted using ADP. That would be one way to compare how well off you were on average drafting each position at their ADP as compared to other positions. I think.

How about those like me who took Chubb, Kupp, Olave, Jackson as their first 4?...yeah i'm 4 and 6 and probably lucky to be that.