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Has the draft elite QB strategy already jumped the shark? (1 Viewer)

Unless it's 4 pt passing TDs AND single QB, it's made sense for 20+ years of playing this game to take the elite QBs as early as any other elite player. SF consensus caught onto this way early. 6 pt single QB finally started to in recent years, but it appears this year may swing that pendulum backward again. Cool 😎.
 
I'm not disappointed in Mahomes at all.
Drafting QB8 in the 2nd round is putting your team at a huge disadvantage
Unless you took Allen or Hurts. Owners of those 2 qbs are doing very well in my leagues.

If Mahomes did what he was hoped to do, you wouldn't make this claim. It's only a "disadvantage" if the player under performs.
Who was talking about Allen or Hurts?
 
Remember last year the league saw historic lows for Passing TDs and this year is on pace to be even lower. Last year, the conclusion various experts drew was the following:

1. The emergence of Cover 2 defenses making it more difficult for passing games to thrive.
2. The end of the Manning/Brees/Brady era.
3. Unusually poor OL play.

In the past, when the league saw lows in passing scoring like this, the stats quickly bounced back up, but this year is on pace to be slightly lower than last year.
 
I was an eternal wait on QB and then when you think you should draft one, wait a bit longer. This strategy worked great for many years. However, my past 2 seasons, this strategy wasn’t working. So this year, I pivoted to get a top 3 QB whenever I could. The teams with Hurts, Allen or Mahomes are all heading to the playoffs. I doubt I’ll go back to waiting for ever on QB.
 
Remember last year the league saw historic lows for Passing TDs and this year is on pace to be even lower. Last year, the conclusion various experts drew was the following:

1. The emergence of Cover 2 defenses making it more difficult for passing games to thrive.
2. The end of the Manning/Brees/Brady era.
3. Unusually poor OL play.

In the past, when the league saw lows in passing scoring like this, the stats quickly bounced back up, but this year is on pace to be slightly lower than last year.
QB rushing is down also.
 
I'm not disappointed in Mahomes at all.
Drafting QB8 in the 2nd round is putting your team at a huge disadvantage
Unless you took Allen or Hurts. Owners of those 2 qbs are doing very well in my leagues.

If Mahomes did what he was hoped to do, you wouldn't make this claim. It's only a "disadvantage" if the player under performs.
Who was talking about Allen or Hurts?

Did you not read the first post? It literally says especially Allen.
 
Also, of the consensus top 6 QBs taken this year, this is where they currently sit:

Allen (QB1)
Hurts (QB2)
Mahomes (QB8)
Jackson (QB5)
Herbert (QB4)
Burrow (QB17 but was injured)

That seems very high, and I'd almost expect this year has given us more "Top 5 QB picks landing in the top 10" as other years. If anything, it validates taking QB early.

God only knows how Lamar Jackson could be QB5 in any scoring system. He's QB9 in mine after his latest dud.
4 per passing Td, and 1 point per 20 yards passing, he's 5th.

I still don't get it. How does 4pt per passing td and 1/20 yards make him QB5? There are by my count 13 QBs with more passing yards and 18 with more passing tds(!!). Heck, even Derek Carr has more passing yards and he's useless. Kirk Cousins has more yards and tds and he's been on IR for 2 weeks. Surely there has to be something in the rushing stats skewed heavily to make him QB5?

Edit - Lamar hasn't even had his BYE week either while quite a few who have outscored him so far have had theirs. Makes him look even worse. He's basically Josh Dobbs at this point and for a 4th rounder, one of my worst selections at QB ever.
He has 196 fantasy points in 4 per passing Td, 1 for 20 passing yards, and -2 per int thrown. He is tied for 5th place with cj Stroud who also has 196 points. I'm looking at it right now.
 

I'm not disappointed in Mahomes at all.
Drafting QB8 in the 2nd round is putting your team at a huge disadvantage
Unless you took Allen or Hurts. Owners of those 2 qbs are doing very well in my leagues.

If Mahomes did what he was hoped to do, you wouldn't make this claim. It's only a "disadvantage" if the player under performs.
Who was talking about Allen or Hurts?
Did you not read the original post?
 
Also, of the consensus top 6 QBs taken this year, this is where they currently sit:

Allen (QB1)
Hurts (QB2)
Mahomes (QB8)
Jackson (QB5)
Herbert (QB4)
Burrow (QB17 but was injured)

That seems very high, and I'd almost expect this year has given us more "Top 5 QB picks landing in the top 10" as other years. If anything, it validates taking QB early.

God only knows how Lamar Jackson could be QB5 in any scoring system. He's QB9 in mine after his latest dud.
4 per passing Td, and 1 point per 20 yards passing, he's 5th.

I still don't get it. How does 4pt per passing td and 1/20 yards make him QB5? There are by my count 13 QBs with more passing yards and 18 with more passing tds(!!). Heck, even Derek Carr has more passing yards and he's useless. Kirk Cousins has more yards and tds and he's been on IR for 2 weeks. Surely there has to be something in the rushing stats skewed heavily to make him QB5?
Yes, he rushes a lot and that makes up for lower passing numbers. 1 point for 10 yards rushing is pretty standard.
 
It's not so much what has the QB done, it's how much more has he done compared to his peers. Looking at the numbers, Allen and Hurts are pretty solidly in the highest tier. Then you've got the rest of the top 12 who are all within 2ish PPG of each other, but half of the QBs in this tier were wait on QB candidates or not draftable at all.

Outside of Hurts/Allen, just wait a while and draft 2-3 low tier guys.

Of course next year, Mahomes may bounce back to elite tier, or Allen finally gets the injury everyone's predicting. Not as easy as it sounds.
 
It's not so much what has the QB done, it's how much more has he done compared to his peers. Looking at the numbers, Allen and Hurts are pretty solidly in the highest tier. Then you've got the rest of the top 12 who are all within 2ish PPG of each other, but half of the QBs in this tier were wait on QB candidates or not draftable at all.

Outside of Hurts/Allen, just wait a while and draft 2-3 low tier guys.

Of course next year, Mahomes may bounce back to elite tier, or Allen finally gets the injury everyone's predicting. Not as easy as it sounds.
I mean sure. Good luck waiting and guessing on the next howell/stroud.

So easy in hindsight, but I think this year has proven the opposite of the intent of this thread, and the higher drafted qbs are ALMOST all performing up to expectations more than normal.

And with the insane number of qb injuries this year (I think close to half of NFL starting qbs have missed games), the fact that those clear top 6 qbs going into the season have barely missed any games at all (just burrow?).
 
I'm not disappointed in Mahomes at all.
Drafting QB8 in the 2nd round is putting your team at a huge disadvantage
Unless you took Allen or Hurts. Owners of those 2 qbs are doing very well in my leagues.

If Mahomes did what he was hoped to do, you wouldn't make this claim. It's only a "disadvantage" if the player under performs.
Who was talking about Allen or Hurts?

Did you not read the first post? It literally says especially Allen.


I'm not disappointed in Mahomes at all.
Drafting QB8 in the 2nd round is putting your team at a huge disadvantage
Unless you took Allen or Hurts. Owners of those 2 qbs are doing very well in my leagues.

If Mahomes did what he was hoped to do, you wouldn't make this claim. It's only a "disadvantage" if the player under performs.
Who was talking about Allen or Hurts?
Did you not read the original post?
MY specific comment was about Mahomes. You both RESPONDED to MY comment.
 
I'm not disappointed in Mahomes at all.
Drafting QB8 in the 2nd round is putting your team at a huge disadvantage
Unless you took Allen or Hurts. Owners of those 2 qbs are doing very well in my leagues.

If Mahomes did what he was hoped to do, you wouldn't make this claim. It's only a "disadvantage" if the player under performs.
Who was talking about Allen or Hurts?

Did you not read the first post? It literally says especially Allen.


I'm not disappointed in Mahomes at all.
Drafting QB8 in the 2nd round is putting your team at a huge disadvantage
Unless you took Allen or Hurts. Owners of those 2 qbs are doing very well in my leagues.

If Mahomes did what he was hoped to do, you wouldn't make this claim. It's only a "disadvantage" if the player under performs.
Who was talking about Allen or Hurts?
Did you not read the original post?
MY specific comment was about Mahomes. You both RESPONDED to MY comment.
You said "Drafting a QB in the 2nd round is putting your team at a huge disadvantage". You didn't mention Mahomes specificially. Hurts and Allen were both 2nd round picks in my league and both are making their owners quite happy.
 
I'm not disappointed in Mahomes at all.
Drafting QB8 in the 2nd round is putting your team at a huge disadvantage
Unless you took Allen or Hurts. Owners of those 2 qbs are doing very well in my leagues.

If Mahomes did what he was hoped to do, you wouldn't make this claim. It's only a "disadvantage" if the player under performs.
Who was talking about Allen or Hurts?

Did you not read the first post? It literally says especially Allen.


I'm not disappointed in Mahomes at all.
Drafting QB8 in the 2nd round is putting your team at a huge disadvantage
Unless you took Allen or Hurts. Owners of those 2 qbs are doing very well in my leagues.

If Mahomes did what he was hoped to do, you wouldn't make this claim. It's only a "disadvantage" if the player under performs.
Who was talking about Allen or Hurts?
Did you not read the original post?
MY specific comment was about Mahomes. You both RESPONDED to MY comment.
You said "Drafting a QB in the 2nd round is putting your team at a huge disadvantage". You didn't mention Mahomes specificially. Hurts and Allen were both 2nd round picks in my league and both are making their owners quite happy.
No I didnt.

I said drafting QB8 (this is specifically Mahomes) not drafting A QB.
 
I'm not disappointed in Mahomes at all.
Drafting QB8 in the 2nd round is putting your team at a huge disadvantage
Unless you took Allen or Hurts. Owners of those 2 qbs are doing very well in my leagues.

If Mahomes did what he was hoped to do, you wouldn't make this claim. It's only a "disadvantage" if the player under performs.
Who was talking about Allen or Hurts?

Did you not read the first post? It literally says especially Allen.


I'm not disappointed in Mahomes at all.
Drafting QB8 in the 2nd round is putting your team at a huge disadvantage
Unless you took Allen or Hurts. Owners of those 2 qbs are doing very well in my leagues.

If Mahomes did what he was hoped to do, you wouldn't make this claim. It's only a "disadvantage" if the player under performs.
Who was talking about Allen or Hurts?
Did you not read the original post?
MY specific comment was about Mahomes. You both RESPONDED to MY comment.
You said "Drafting a QB in the 2nd round is putting your team at a huge disadvantage". You didn't mention Mahomes specificially. Hurts and Allen were both 2nd round picks in my league and both are making their owners quite happy.
No I didnt.

I said drafting QB8 (this is specifically Mahomes) not drafting A QB.
Ah, you're right, I misread.

Yes of course drafting QB8 in the 2nd round is a huge disadvantage. Drafting RB25 in early Round 1 (Ekeler) is also a massive disadvantage. Drafting anyone high that doesn't end high is a huge disadvantage. This year, going QB high has really worked out well overall.
 
Here's FBG's top 12 QBs ranked going into the season (and what place they are in now)

Mahomes (QB8)
Allen (QB1)
Hurts (QB2)
Burrow (QB17 but injured and rising)
Herbert (QB4)
Jackson (QB5)

Lawrence (QB19)
Fields (QB24)
Cousins (QB13... and dropping)
Watson (QB29)
D. Jones (QB33)
G. Smith (QB20)

If anything, this shows that those who waited on QB and didn't nab one of the "Big 6" this year are suffering the most.

Those that went QB early and got one of the "Big 6", have been overall rewarded very nicely.

Drafting QB early this year, was for the most part a very good strategy. Really don't understand the OP in the slightest.
 
Here's FBG's top 12 QBs ranked going into the season (and what place they are in now)

Mahomes (QB8)
Allen (QB1)
Hurts (QB2)
Burrow (QB17 but injured and rising)
Herbert (QB4)
Jackson (QB5)

Lawrence (QB19)
Fields (QB24)
Cousins (QB13... and dropping)
Watson (QB29)
D. Jones (QB33)
G. Smith (QB20)

If anything, this shows that those who waited on QB and didn't nab one of the "Big 6" this year are suffering the most.

Those that went QB early and got one of the "Big 6", have been overall rewarded very nicely.

Drafting QB early this year, was for the most part a very good strategy. Really don't understand the OP in the slightest.
Youre missing the point that people who didnt draft one of the big 6 couldve easily picked up Stroud, Howell,or Dobbs or drafted Tua or Dak as a backup because they would have motivation to do so. Now those people are on equal footing as those who took one of the big 6 but would have theoretically picked a good WR or RB in that slot.
 
Point being, theres nothing wrong with taking a top tier QB early but you BETTER hit on some of your later picks or WW pickups if you want to compete. But if you pick a QB later and he doesnt hit it is very easy to pivot (but good luck pivoting to a better WR).
 
Here's FBG's top 12 QBs ranked going into the season (and what place they are in now)

Mahomes (QB8)
Allen (QB1)
Hurts (QB2)
Burrow (QB17 but injured and rising)
Herbert (QB4)
Jackson (QB5)

Lawrence (QB19)
Fields (QB24)
Cousins (QB13... and dropping)
Watson (QB29)
D. Jones (QB33)
G. Smith (QB20)

If anything, this shows that those who waited on QB and didn't nab one of the "Big 6" this year are suffering the most.

Those that went QB early and got one of the "Big 6", have been overall rewarded very nicely.

Drafting QB early this year, was for the most part a very good strategy. Really don't understand the OP in the slightest.
Youre missing the point that people who didnt draft one of the big 6 couldve easily picked up Stroud, Howell,or Dobbs or drafted Tua or Dak as a backup because they would have motivation to do so. Now those people are on equal footing as those who took one of the big 6 but would have theoretically picked a good WR or RB in that slot.
"easily picked up" is a bit of a stretch. Once a QB starts putting up numbers like that, every player in the league is likely going for him. This is like the "well look at Brady and Purdy, no need to draft a QB in round 1 when you can get a stud later".

You could have gotten lucky this year and waited on QB and ended up with Stroud or Howell or Dobbs... but you're hoping to win the lottery there. The top 2 tiers of QBs have all done quite nicely this year.
 
Youre missing the point that people who didnt draft one of the big 6 couldve easily picked up Stroud, Howell,or Dobbs or drafted Tua or Dak as a backup because they would have motivation to do so. Now those people are on equal footing as those who took one of the big 6 but would have theoretically picked a good WR or RB in that slot
isn't it just as likely the Mahomes owner took Mostert later, and the guy who drafted Stroud late took Chubb?
 
I am in 4 leagues and drafted a QB early in 3 of them. Hurts, Allen and Herbert. The 4th league I waited and drafted Cousins and Goff. Since then I picked up Howell for Cousins. I am a combined 29-11 so I am pretty happy with taking a QB early.
 
Youre missing the point that people who didnt draft one of the big 6 couldve easily picked up Stroud, Howell,or Dobbs or drafted Tua or Dak as a backup because they would have motivation to do so. Now those people are on equal footing as those who took one of the big 6 but would have theoretically picked a good WR or RB in that slot
isn't it just as likely the Mahomes owner took Mostert later, and the guy who drafted Stroud late took Chubb?
Great point.
 
Youre missing the point that people who didnt draft one of the big 6 couldve easily picked up Stroud, Howell,or Dobbs or drafted Tua or Dak as a backup because they would have motivation to do so. Now those people are on equal footing as those who took one of the big 6 but would have theoretically picked a good WR or RB in that slot
isn't it just as likely the Mahomes owner took Mostert later, and the guy who drafted Stroud late took Chubb?
Yes. My main point is it's easier to recover from a mid to late round draft mistake than an early round. Also, I already mentioned earlier in this thread that if you draft a QB early you better hit on some late round picks
 
Point being, theres nothing wrong with taking a top tier QB early but you BETTER hit on some of your later picks or WW pickups if you want to compete. But if you pick a QB later and he doesnt hit it is very easy to pivot (but good luck pivoting to a better WR).
Not really. I drafted Lawrence and only him in one league. And I’m STILL thinking that one of these weeks he’s going to really break out and finish strongly. I’m willing to bet the Fields and Watson owners feel the same. So it’s hard to pivot, which means you miss out on the younger guys who are having a good start.
 
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Point being, theres nothing wrong with taking a top tier QB early but you BETTER hit on some of your later picks or WW pickups if you want to compete. But if you pick a QB later and he doesnt hit it is very easy to pivot (but good luck pivoting to a better WR).
Not really. I drafted Lawrence and only him in one league. And I’m STILL thinking that one of these weeks he’s going to really break out and finish strongly. I’m willing to bet the Fields and Watson owners feel the same. So it’s hard to pivot, which means you miss out on the younger guys who are having a good start.
Well that's kind of on you at this point. I've been saying Lawrence doesn't belong in top 12 for weeks now.
 
In our league you’ve given up little or no ground so far with the following

Sam Howell
Dak Prescott
CJ Stroud
Kirk Cousins
Jared Goff
Tua
Josh Dodds
Brock Purdy
Russell Wilson

2-3 points FFPG max other than Allen and Hurts and only a little bit more with them. And several have done better than the big names. Anybody who waited and got these guys all 7th round or later are doing just fine. Even Mayfield has been OK. Geno and Trevor have been the misses. I don’t understand anyone who says waiting on QB backfired this year. As long as you drafted somebody on the above list Can’t count guys like Carr, Love, etc. Those guys are mutts
 
Good thread. When reading I questioned, what do my leagues look like? Some thru-week10 anecdotal feedback...

The current 1st place team in each of the 6 leagues I'm in drafted QB at:

3rd rd - Hurts
4th rd - Burrow
4th rd - Hurts (keeper)
7th rd - Prescott
8th rd - Purdy
11th rd - Watson

Surely this will change by end of year but always a fun look. Bottom line, there are so many other variables to factor into performance.
 
In our league you’ve given up little or no ground so far with the following

Sam Howell
Dak Prescott
CJ Stroud
Kirk Cousins
Jared Goff
Tua
Josh Dodds
Brock Purdy
Russell Wilson

2-3 points FFPG max other than Allen and Hurts and only a little bit more with them. And several have done better than the big names. Anybody who waited and got these guys all 7th round or later are doing just fine. Even Mayfield has been OK. Geno and Trevor have been the misses. I don’t understand anyone who says waiting on QB backfired this year. As long as you drafted somebody on the above list Can’t count guys like Carr, Love, etc. Those guys are mutts
3 PPG is substantial. It would be so easy to go through RB's like Mostert, Achane, Edwards, Etc and say the same thing.... that there's little difference in those RBs to a list of Chubb, Pollard, Etc early rounds. Hate when people use hindsight in fantasy. Bottom line is yes, anyone can strike gold at any position. Those who took the top tier QB's this year early, are reaping the rewards.

The teams who own Allen, Hurts, Herbert, Jackson, early, are all doing very well in my leagues. 67% of tier 1 qbs hitting, is huge (and the other 33% weren't total flops). No other position hit like that in fantasy this year.
 
I love taking elite QBs 'early' in my 6-pt passing TD, single QB league. Year after year it has afforded me a rock solid early round performer to stabilize my roster as I fill in the edges. I hope my leaguemates never figure it out.
 
I'm not disappointed in Mahomes at all.

I am. He's QB7 in my league. Not a disaster, but not good for a 2nd round pick. I usually don't draft QBs high - I'll probably go back to that.
Mahomes is my keeper in a 2 QB Auction league though so it's different. He did cost a lot to keep though: 23% of auction budget. 5 point passing touchdowns, 3 point 300 yard passing bonus. These things all make a difference. When I use to do traditional drafts I always waited until round 7 for a QB.
 
Mahomes is 8th in my league too, however he's at 24.9 points per game. Justin Herbert is at #3 at 25.7 points per game. That means Mahomes is basically tied for 3rd best QB so far this year with 6 other QBs.
Mahomes points each game in my league: 24, 30, 30, 17, 24, 25, 46, 8, 20.
Like I said, I'm happy I have Mahomes as my QB1 (in a 2 QB keeper auction league).
 
Mahomes is 8th in my league too, however he's at 24.9 points per game. Justin Herbert is at #3 at 25.7 points per game. That means Mahomes is basically tied for 3rd best QB so far this year with 6 other QBs.
Mahomes points each game in my league: 24, 30, 30, 17, 24, 25, 46, 8, 20.
Like I said, I'm happy I have Mahomes as my QB1 (in a 2 QB keeper auction league).
This just illustrates though that taking the QB earlier is not necessarily a benefit. If QBs 3 through 8 are less than a PPG apart, give me the 8th one drafted and I'll use my earlier picks on ideally better WRs and RBs.

Obviously nuance in each leagues setup - league size, scoring and lineup matters, but when QB scoring is this flat which seems to be the norm most years in most leagues, it lessens the reward for taking one early and increases the risk due to lost opportunity at other positions.

You also point out an additional aspect many are overlooking by just looking at the total points scored and that is consistency. How many of Mahomes weeks were say a top 6 performance compared to the other guys that have similar totals. Are they more boom/bust with a couple #1 overall weeks then a bunch of 15-18 overall weekly finishes where they shouldn't be started. Unless you're in a total points league or best ball, consistency has value that shouldn't be overlooked.
 
Mahomes is 8th in my league too, however he's at 24.9 points per game. Justin Herbert is at #3 at 25.7 points per game. That means Mahomes is basically tied for 3rd best QB so far this year with 6 other QBs.
Mahomes points each game in my league: 24, 30, 30, 17, 24, 25, 46, 8, 20.
Like I said, I'm happy I have Mahomes as my QB1 (in a 2 QB keeper auction league).
This just illustrates though that taking the QB earlier is not necessarily a benefit. If QBs 3 through 8 are less than a PPG apart, give me the 8th one drafted and I'll use my earlier picks on ideally better WRs and RBs.

Obviously nuance in each leagues setup - league size, scoring and lineup matters, but when QB scoring is this flat which seems to be the norm most years in most leagues, it lessens the reward for taking one early and increases the risk due to lost opportunity at other positions.

You also point out an additional aspect many are overlooking by just looking at the total points scored and that is consistency. How many of Mahomes weeks were say a top 6 performance compared to the other guys that have similar totals. Are they more boom/bust with a couple #1 overall weeks then a bunch of 15-18 overall weekly finishes where they shouldn't be started. Unless you're in a total points league or best ball, consistency has value that shouldn't be overlooked.
Mahomes has been consistent except for the Denver game. Another one is Goff. The main difference is roughly six rounds.

Your comparison on how close the scoring is reminds me of drafting kickers. To me, the same thing applies.
 
There is a real assumption that pivoting QB’s early in the year is just east to do. As a guy who plays 10+ leagues every year, man, I disagree. The whole 20/20 argument is quite circular. Clearly, teams with Hurts and Allen are likely doing very very well.

Consistency is key to winning consistently.
 
In our league you’ve given up little or no ground so far with the following

Sam Howell
Dak Prescott
CJ Stroud
Kirk Cousins
Jared Goff
Tua
Josh Dodds
Brock Purdy
Russell Wilson

2-3 points FFPG max other than Allen and Hurts and only a little bit more with them. And several have done better than the big names. Anybody who waited and got these guys all 7th round or later are doing just fine. Even Mayfield has been OK. Geno and Trevor have been the misses. I don’t understand anyone who says waiting on QB backfired this year. As long as you drafted somebody on the above list Can’t count guys like Carr, Love, etc. Those guys are mutts
3 PPG is substantial. It would be so easy to go through RB's like Mostert, Achane, Edwards, Etc and say the same thing.... that there's little difference in those RBs to a list of Chubb, Pollard, Etc early rounds. Hate when people use hindsight in fantasy. Bottom line is yes, anyone can strike gold at any position. Those who took the top tier QB's this year early, are reaping the rewards.

The teams who own Allen, Hurts, Herbert, Jackson, early, are all doing very well in my leagues. 67% of tier 1 qbs hitting, is huge (and the other 33% weren't total flops). No other position hit like that in fantasy this year.
FWIW when tiering players I usually break tiers by 2 PPG incriments.

I think that is a significant enough difference to qualify as a separate tier.
 
Man - some terrible games from the “elite” QB’s. Especially Allen and Mahomes. Others have struggled as well. Lamar, Burrow etc have had big games but many iffy ones. Lawrence has been terrible with 9 TD’s all year. Maybe only Hurts has delivered so far. QB’s drafted late or not at all have outscored all of them multiple times. Cousins was the best value until he got hurt. 10th rounder. Stroud? Off the wire. On and on.

In any event - I think the draft world corrects and most wait on QB’s next year.

Thanks. Can you (and anyone else) elaborate on how you define the "Elite QB Strategy"?
 
Man - some terrible games from the “elite” QB’s. Especially Allen and Mahomes. Others have struggled as well. Lamar, Burrow etc have had big games but many iffy ones. Lawrence has been terrible with 9 TD’s all year. Maybe only Hurts has delivered so far. QB’s drafted late or not at all have outscored all of them multiple times. Cousins was the best value until he got hurt. 10th rounder. Stroud? Off the wire. On and on.

In any event - I think the draft world corrects and most wait on QB’s next year.

Thanks. Can you (and anyone else) elaborate on how you define the "Elite QB Strategy"?

:2cents:

For me I'd say it varies a bit each year. For this past draft, I would isolate it to Mahomes/Allen/Hurts - which was pretty much the first two rounds (perhaps Hurts slipped into early 3rd). Lamar/Burrow/Herbert went rounds 3-4, but allowed you to still build a decent amount of a foundation. You would still be giving up a "very good" RB or WR, but not a high end one.
 
In our league you’ve given up little or no ground so far with the following

Sam Howell
Dak Prescott
CJ Stroud
Kirk Cousins
Jared Goff
Tua
Josh Dodds
Brock Purdy
Russell Wilson

2-3 points FFPG max other than Allen and Hurts and only a little bit more with them. And several have done better than the big names. Anybody who waited and got these guys all 7th round or later are doing just fine. Even Mayfield has been OK. Geno and Trevor have been the misses. I don’t understand anyone who says waiting on QB backfired this year. As long as you drafted somebody on the above list Can’t count guys like Carr, Love, etc. Those guys are mutts
3 PPG is substantial. It would be so easy to go through RB's like Mostert, Achane, Edwards, Etc and say the same thing.... that there's little difference in those RBs to a list of Chubb, Pollard, Etc early rounds. Hate when people use hindsight in fantasy. Bottom line is yes, anyone can strike gold at any position. Those who took the top tier QB's this year early, are reaping the rewards.

The teams who own Allen, Hurts, Herbert, Jackson, early, are all doing very well in my leagues. 67% of tier 1 qbs hitting, is huge (and the other 33% weren't total flops). No other position hit like that in fantasy this year.
The range is much wider for PPG in other positions. You start 12 QBs in most leagues. You start up to 36 RBs and up to 48 WR's (non TE mandatory) in many leagues. You could give up 5-10+ points in those positions
 
Man - some terrible games from the “elite” QB’s. Especially Allen and Mahomes. Others have struggled as well. Lamar, Burrow etc have had big games but many iffy ones. Lawrence has been terrible with 9 TD’s all year. Maybe only Hurts has delivered so far. QB’s drafted late or not at all have outscored all of them multiple times. Cousins was the best value until he got hurt. 10th rounder. Stroud? Off the wire. On and on.

In any event - I think the draft world corrects and most wait on QB’s next year.

Thanks. Can you (and anyone else) elaborate on how you define the "Elite QB Strategy"?
Strategy was probably a poor choice of words. I would say that the "experts" have long advised waiting on a QB. Perfect draft stuff. This year, for the first time I can remember, many of those same experts were talking about a big drop off after the first 7 or so QBs. So it was "get one of those 7". Hence, we saw more QBs go in the first 2 rounds/early 3rd than in memory. It wasn't just Mahomes, Allen, Hurts. Jackson, Burrow, Herbert, Fields, Lawrence moved up as well. I'm confident that the data would show that across drafts overall.
 
In our league you’ve given up little or no ground so far with the following

Sam Howell
Dak Prescott
CJ Stroud
Kirk Cousins
Jared Goff
Tua
Josh Dodds
Brock Purdy
Russell Wilson

2-3 points FFPG max other than Allen and Hurts and only a little bit more with them. And several have done better than the big names. Anybody who waited and got these guys all 7th round or later are doing just fine. Even Mayfield has been OK. Geno and Trevor have been the misses. I don’t understand anyone who says waiting on QB backfired this year. As long as you drafted somebody on the above list Can’t count guys like Carr, Love, etc. Those guys are mutts
3 PPG is substantial. It would be so easy to go through RB's like Mostert, Achane, Edwards, Etc and say the same thing.... that there's little difference in those RBs to a list of Chubb, Pollard, Etc early rounds. Hate when people use hindsight in fantasy. Bottom line is yes, anyone can strike gold at any position. Those who took the top tier QB's this year early, are reaping the rewards.

The teams who own Allen, Hurts, Herbert, Jackson, early, are all doing very well in my leagues. 67% of tier 1 qbs hitting, is huge (and the other 33% weren't total flops). No other position hit like that in fantasy this year.
The range is much wider for PPG in other positions. You start 12 QBs in most leagues. You start up to 36 RBs and up to 48 WR's (non TE mandatory) in many leagues. You could give up 5-10+ points in those positions
While this is true it's actually more reason to target the QBs you expect to provide those margins.

Before the season began you would be drafting off of projections.

While projections are always wrong, I would argue that using projections vs not using them helps one make a more informed decision.

No one had Stroud projected for the points he has put up. That would be insane to do so for a rookie QB. How those QBs have performed is with the benefit of hindsight.

The top projected QBs were so based on evidence of past performance. You cannot under estimate the value of confidence one has when making projections or deciding who to draft. Confidence is a key factor in that.

Of course it can always be wrong. Players get injured and other unforseen circumstance goes into the actual performance, but this is why confidence in projections is so important as well.

Eta - you don't know who the comparable performers will be at the time of the draft and other managers may take them instead of you. You might not get them as free agents either as any other manager could beat you to that player in free agency.
 
The only two times I have drafted QBs early it has burned me. Last year I took Murray in the 3rd and this year Mahomes in the 2nd. Looking back at how our draft went there wasn't very much around the time I took him that I was thrilled about, and they haven't been great picks either.
 
Also, of the consensus top 6 QBs taken this year, this is where they currently sit:

Allen (QB1)
Hurts (QB2)
Mahomes (QB8)
Jackson (QB5)
Herbert (QB4)
Burrow (QB17 but was injured)

That seems very high, and I'd almost expect this year has given us more "Top 5 QB picks landing in the top 10" as other years. If anything, it validates taking QB early.

God only knows how Lamar Jackson could be QB5 in any scoring system. He's QB9 in mine after his latest dud.
QB 11 in my pretty standard except 6pts per td league.
 
I think it has worked fine for Hurts, Allen, Herbert, and for the most part, Lamar owners, despite some dud weeks. Mahomes and Burrow, definitely not. Those are disappointments FF-wise, although that is due mostly to injury and having a vastly improved D (Chiefs). I'd say Mahomes even more as he was drafted several rounds earlier than Burrow.

And yes, this is only for fantasy, Mahomes is still the best QB in real football.
Mahomes is still the best QB in real football? This year? Based on what? If based on the past I’d agree but this year real football my eyes must be lying to me cause he ain’t it.
He is, and it's not even close. Aside from an aging Kelce, tell me what weapons does he have? In comparison to the riches of the weapons some QBs possess like Allen, Hurts, Tua, Burrow, etc, etc, it's a miracle he can still produce the numbers he does. Even with a couple of duds, he's still 5th in standard scoring pts/game. In terms of FF, I ranked both Hurts and Allen higher coming into the season, but in terms of pure QB, Mahomes is in a league of his own and none of these others can carry a franchise on their backs like he has for years.
 
I was an eternal wait on QB and then when you think you should draft one, wait a bit longer. This strategy worked great for many years. However, my past 2 seasons, this strategy wasn’t working. So this year, I pivoted to get a top 3 QB whenever I could. The teams with Hurts, Allen or Mahomes are all heading to the playoffs. I doubt I’ll go back to waiting for ever on QB.
In my league: Allen is on the worst team, burrow next to worst, Lamar, mahomes, and Hurt middle to low middle of the pack. Not sure what number Herbert was but his owner is in first place. Top 5 teams qb: Herbert, Lawrence ( there despite taking him fairly early), Tua, Goff, Fields. In my league early qb picks just havent worked out. The problem with the logic of taking the stud qbs early just like you take other positions early is that there are 32 qbs and you only start 12. That leaves 20 qbs to break out not counting the bottom of those 12 qbs also in that pool. PLENTY of qbs out there to not draft a qb early.
 
Also, of the consensus top 6 QBs taken this year, this is where they currently sit:

Allen (QB1)
Hurts (QB2)
Mahomes (QB8)
Jackson (QB5)
Herbert (QB4)
Burrow (QB17 but was injured)

That seems very high, and I'd almost expect this year has given us more "Top 5 QB picks landing in the top 10" as other years. If anything, it validates taking QB early.

God only knows how Lamar Jackson could be QB5 in any scoring system. He's QB9 in mine after his latest dud.
QB 11 in my pretty standard except 6pts per td league.
I would say 4 per passing Td is more the norm than 6. But that's a whole other conversation that's not super relevant here.
 
I was an eternal wait on QB and then when you think you should draft one, wait a bit longer. This strategy worked great for many years. However, my past 2 seasons, this strategy wasn’t working. So this year, I pivoted to get a top 3 QB whenever I could. The teams with Hurts, Allen or Mahomes are all heading to the playoffs. I doubt I’ll go back to waiting for ever on QB.
In my league: Allen is on the worst team, burrow next to worst, Lamar, mahomes, and Hurt middle to low middle of the pack. Not sure what number Herbert was but his owner is in first place. Top 5 teams qb: Herbert, Lawrence ( there despite taking him fairly early), Tua, Goff, Fields. In my league early qb picks just havent worked out. The problem with the logic of taking the stud qbs early just like you take other positions early is that there are 32 qbs and you only start 12. That leaves 20 qbs to break out not counting the bottom of those 12 qbs also in that pool. PLENTY of qbs out there to not draft a qb early.
Wow, the Allen and Hurts owners must have REALLY screwed up the rest of their draft.
 
Allen and Hurts and Mahomes owners in my league are also out of playoffs right now. Top 4 teams QBs are: LJax, Stroud, Dak (after losing Cousins), Purdy
 

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