Has the draft elite QB strategy already jumped the shark? (1 Viewer)

[Judge Smails]

Man - some terrible games from the “elite” QB’s. Especially Allen and Mahomes. Others have struggled as well. Lamar, Burrow etc have had big games but many iffy ones. Lawrence has been terrible with 9 TD’s all year. Maybe only Hurts has delivered so far. QB’s drafted late or not at all have outscored all of them multiple times. Cousins was the best value until he got hurt. 10th rounder. Stroud? Off the wire. On and on.

In any event - I think the draft world corrects and most wait on QB’s next year.

 

[EBF]

To put it simply, I think most of those guys just aren't as good as people wanted them to be.

There's one elite QB in the NFL and it's Mahomes. The others can have great games and great seasons, but can't be trusted to perform.

We were spoiled by 10+ years of Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, even Roethlisberger.

The position is shallower now, so guys who are actually deeply flawed are closer to being "top 5" than they should be.

Maybe 2-3 years from now we can talk about someone like Stroud or Lawrence as being in that territory, but "elite QB" just means Mahomes to me.

 

[Insein]

I think KC is fine with Mahomes.

Allen, I think Buffalo is having buyer's remorse.

 

[Deamon]

I think the draft world corrects and most wait on QB’s next year.

Allen, I think Buffalo is having buyer's remorse.

Allen is QB1 in the whole league right now...

 

[Insein]

I think the draft world corrects and most wait on QB’s next year.

Allen, I think Buffalo is having buyer's remorse.

Allen is QB1 in the whole league right now...

And they're 5-5

 

[Deamon]

Also, of the consensus top 6 QBs taken this year, this is where they currently sit:

Allen (QB1)
Hurts (QB2)
Mahomes (QB8)
Jackson (QB5)
Herbert (QB4)
Burrow (QB17 but was injured)

That seems very high, and I'd almost expect this year has given us more "Top 5 QB picks landing in the top 10" as other years. If anything, it validates taking QB early.

 

[Deamon]

I think the draft world corrects and most wait on QB’s next year.

Allen, I think Buffalo is having buyer's remorse.

Allen is QB1 in the whole league right now...

And they're 5-5

??? This thread is talking about drafting fantasy QBs

 

[Insein]

I think the draft world corrects and most wait on QB’s next year.

Allen, I think Buffalo is having buyer's remorse.

Allen is QB1 in the whole league right now...

And they're 5-5

??? This thread is talking about drafting fantasy QBs

Then carry on I guess.

 

[Down Under]

I think it has worked fine for Hurts, Allen, Herbert, and for the most part, Lamar owners, despite some dud weeks. Mahomes and Burrow, definitely not. Those are disappointments FF-wise, although that is due mostly to injury and having a vastly improved D (Chiefs). I'd say Mahomes even more as he was drafted several rounds earlier than Burrow.

And yes, this is only for fantasy, Mahomes is still the best QB in real football.

 

[Deamon]

I think it has worked fine for Hurts, Allen, Herbert, and for the most part, Lamar owners, despite some dud weeks. Mahomes and Burrow, definitely not. Those are disappointments FF-wise, although that is due mostly to injury and having a vastly improved D (Chiefs). I'd say Mahomes even more as he was drafted several rounds earlier than Burrow.

And yes, this is only for fantasy, Mahomes is still the best QB in real football.

Ya I don't know how he could say only Hurts has delivered. Mahomes hasn't been TERRIBLE. You can't expect him to be QB1, basically anything in the top 5 is satisfying for a player drafted first at their position. Hurts, Allen, Herbert, and Jackson owners should all be happy they went early on QB. Mahomes and Burrow not as much, but they haven't been disasters outside of missed weeks for injury.

 

[N Zone]

I'm not disappointed in Mahomes at all.

 

[Down Under]

I'm not disappointed in Mahomes at all.

I am. He's QB7 in my league. Not a disaster, but not good for a 2nd round pick. I usually don't draft QBs high - I'll probably go back to that.

 

[TheWinz]

Let's say you draft Mahomes early, and you take Joe Schmo late in the draft just to be a bye week filler. You start Mahomes week 1, and he is QB7 while Schmo is QB6. Are you gonna start Schmo in week 2? Of course not. In week 2 Mahomes is once again QB7 while Schmo is QB6. Are you gonna start Schmo in week 3? Of course not. Unless Mahomes gets injured, most FF'ers don't play the matchups when they have a stud like Mahomes, even when their bye week filler is outscoring him, unless it's by a country mile.

 

[-OZ-]

Fwiw, Burrow is QB5 ppg since week 5. He’ll probably be just fine by the end of the year.

 

[titusbramble]

It's weird, we've had the exact same discussion on another forum except in reverse

 

[rockaction]

Yeah, I don't think it's backfired at all. Unless you have Mahomes (like I do in dynasty), you're pretty happy with your early redraft pick performing so well. You could have Tony Pollard, like I do in one league.

 

[jobarules]

Yeah

It's the main reason my team sucks. Drafted mahomes in the 2nd instead of a good WR when i could've had Dak, Stroud, Tua, Howell, etc. Huge disadvantage. I used draft dominator. Never again. Going back to my old school pick QB late strategy next year.

 

[jobarules]

I'm not disappointed in Mahomes at all.

Drafting QB8 in the 2nd round is putting your team at a huge disadvantage

 

[Truebluey]

I'm not disappointed in Mahomes at all.

Drafting QB8 in the 2nd round is putting your team at a huge disadvantage

Guy in our league drafted Mahomes in the first, Chubb in the second, and Christian Watson in the third and is still 5-5 and in the playoff hunt. We all make draft mistakes, still gotta play hard the rest of the year.

 

[LionOfGosforth]

Also, of the consensus top 6 QBs taken this year, this is where they currently sit:

Allen (QB1)
Hurts (QB2)
Mahomes (QB8)
Jackson (QB5)
Herbert (QB4)
Burrow (QB17 but was injured)

That seems very high, and I'd almost expect this year has given us more "Top 5 QB picks landing in the top 10" as other years. If anything, it validates taking QB early.

God only knows how Lamar Jackson could be QB5 in any scoring system. He's QB9 in mine after his latest dud.

 

[FairWarning]

I'm not disappointed in Mahomes at all.

Drafting QB8 in the 2nd round is putting your team at a huge disadvantage

Depends on the scoring system and format. You probably need to draft one in the first couple rounds in a superflex league.

 

[FarFromHome]

Also, of the consensus top 6 QBs taken this year, this is where they currently sit:

Allen (QB1)
Hurts (QB2)
Mahomes (QB8)
Jackson (QB5)
Herbert (QB4)
Burrow (QB17 but was injured)

That seems very high, and I'd almost expect this year has given us more "Top 5 QB picks landing in the top 10" as other years. If anything, it validates taking QB early.

God only knows how Lamar Jackson could be QB5 in any scoring system. He's QB9 in mine after his latest dud.

After the next two games against Bengals then Chargers his numbers will mathematically translate into top 3. Feels weird, but it's math.

Last year was my first year where I felt the numbers say you needed a top 5 QB in fantasy. I made an effort to have a top 5 in all leagues. Sitting at week 11 it feels like last year was an outlier and next year I'll stray towards waiting again. I agree with the original post.

 

[Biabreakable]

No question Mahomes is a great QB. But he got paid accordingly and they don't really have the receivers right now which is what you need for him to have in fantasy.

Kelce is still great but he's been banged up and is getting older, then their defense is playing good as well so they dont need Mahomes to put up big numbers to win games.

It's kind of a bad recipe for top notch fantasy numbers.

For fantasy you kind of want your QB to be balls to the wall for 4 quarters like Josh Allen. While what he is doing may not win as many real football games it leads to a lot of points.

I do have some trust that Andy Reid will find some receivers and develop them, but that's a work in progress right now and the production is kind of piece meal and inconsistent.

It's what they have been doing since they let Hill walk really and that may not change for awhile.

Just some things to think about if making a big investment into him for fantasy going forward.

 

[zamboni]

From a fantasy standpoint, to me the case for going the elite QB strategy route has only gotten stronger, not weaker. Although I would say that this is probably more of a case for 2QB/SF leagues rather than 1QB leagues.

As mentioned above, the QB landscape used to be a lot deeper with Peyton/Brady/Rodgers/Roethlisberger, among others. Now the population of top tier QBs has shrunk to essentially Hurts/Allen/Mahomes/Lamar/Burrow/Herbert. Sure, Mahomes and Lamar have had off years fantasy wise, but are still likely going to be top tier assets in the future. Lawrence and Fields had been knocking at the elite door, and remain unknowns, while guys like Stroud and Richardson could be very close next year.

 

[jobarules]

No question Mahomes is a great QB. But he got paid accordingly and they don't really have the receivers right now which is what you need for him to have in fantasy.

Kelce is still great but he's been banged up and is getting older, then their defense is playing good as well so they dont need Mahomes to put up big numbers to win games.

It's kind of a bad recipe for top notch fantasy numbers.

For fantasy you kind of want your QB to be balls to the wall for 4 quarters like Josh Allen. While what he is doing may not win as many real football games it leads to a lot of points.

I do have some trust that Andy Reid will find some receivers and develop them, but that's a work in progress right now and the production is kind of piece meal and inconsistent.

It's what they have been doing since they let Hill walk really and that may not change for awhile.

Just some things to think about if making a big investment into him for fantasy going forward.

Wasnt Mahomes #1 fantasy QB last year with the same crappy WRs? Yeah I get that their defense is much better this season.

 

[jobarules]

Here's the top 12 QBs and where they were drafted in my league (I understand some of these guys didnt have their bye):

1. Allen 3rd
2. Hurts 3rd
3. Howell undrafted
4. Herbert 5th
5. Stroud undrafted
6. LJax 4th
7. Prescott 8th
8. Mahomes 2nd
9. Tua 11th
10. Dobbs undrafted
11. Purdy undrafted
12. Cousins 11th

 

[FairWarning]

Here's the top 12 QBs and where they were drafted in my league (I understand some of these guys didnt have their bye):

1. Allen 3rd
2. Hurts 3rd
3. Howell undrafted
4. Herbert 5th
5. Stroud undrafted
6. LJax 4th
7. Prescott 8th
8. Mahomes 2nd
9. Tua 11th
10. Dobbs undrafted
11. Purdy undrafted
12. Cousins 11th

My league’s draft results are pretty similar.

 

[Biabreakable]

No question Mahomes is a great QB. But he got paid accordingly and they don't really have the receivers right now which is what you need for him to have in fantasy.

Kelce is still great but he's been banged up and is getting older, then their defense is playing good as well so they dont need Mahomes to put up big numbers to win games.

It's kind of a bad recipe for top notch fantasy numbers.

For fantasy you kind of want your QB to be balls to the wall for 4 quarters like Josh Allen. While what he is doing may not win as many real football games it leads to a lot of points.

I do have some trust that Andy Reid will find some receivers and develop them, but that's a work in progress right now and the production is kind of piece meal and inconsistent.

It's what they have been doing since they let Hill walk really and that may not change for awhile.

Just some things to think about if making a big investment into him for fantasy going forward.

Wasnt Mahomes #1 fantasy QB last year with the same crappy WRs? Yeah I get that their defense is much better this season.

He was which is pretty remarkable.

In some ways he is still on pace to match last year's numbers as well, so maybe some better games to come.

That said his TD % is 5.1 right now which is lower than his career average of 6.3 which is what he had last season as well. It's the lowest TD rate he has had so far in his career not including his rookie season when he only played one game. His adjusted yards per attempt is also down. Currently 7.3 compared to career average of 8.5 this is also the lowest its been besides his one game as a rookie.

So while the passing attempts look about the same the TD and AYPA are down. He will need to really improve on that in the last 8 games or its going to be a somewhat down season for him.

Looking back at last season McKinnon had 9 receiving TD last year. That's missing this year and Kelce is on pace for 8 TD instead of 12.

That's what's missing as far as TD go.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I am in a 12 team superflex (effectively 2qb league). Passing td’s are worth 4pts, rushing are worth 6pts, and 1 point for every 25 passing yards (1pt for every 10 rushing yards), -2 for ints. I’m looking at the qb rankings based on average fantasy points per game right now:

Hurts
Allen
Herbert
Stroud
Prescott
Mahomes
Cousins
Tua
Purdy
Goff
Lamar
Howell

We had a $200 auction draft. Mahomes went for $54. Allen went for $49. Herbert went for $31. I ended up with Dak and Goff. I paid less for Dak and Goff combined than what Allen went for ($25 for Dak, and $15 for Goff). In general, I think some of the qb’s that were considered fantasy elite are putting up top 5-7 numbers. I just don’t know if the expected weekly advantage that they give you are worth drafting in the first or second round.

 

[SoBeDad]

Yeah, I don't think it's backfired at all. Unless you have Mahomes (like I do in dynasty), you're pretty happy with your early redraft pick performing so well. You could have Tony Pollard, like I do in one league.

To Pollard, add Barkley, Ekeler & Chubb (RBs get injured more, so part of the strategy), Stevenson, Najee. All top 11 in the FFI experts poll. That's 6 of the top 11 RBs.

 

[Judge Smails]

Here's the top 12 QBs and where they were drafted in my league (I understand some of these guys didnt have their bye):

1. Allen 3rd
2. Hurts 3rd
3. Howell undrafted
4. Herbert 5th
5. Stroud undrafted
6. LJax 4th
7. Prescott 8th
8. Mahomes 2nd
9. Tua 11th
10. Dobbs undrafted
11. Purdy undrafted
12. Cousins 11th

It’s this + the scoring differential. We’re a 6 point TD league. Through 10 weeks
Allen - 270
Hurts - 250
Then 12 QB’s between 200-232

maybe the cream will rise. I own Mahomes so hope so. But it hasn’t been the haves and have nots like last year

 

[msudaisy26]

If you draft the right guys it doesn't matter where you take them.

Shouldn't draft rbs early because of Mostert, Swift, Montgomery, and Kamara. Don't take tight ends early because of Kincaid, LaPorta, Kmet. Don't take wide relievers early, because of Theilan, Evans, Pittman.

There aren't any guarantees in fantasy football.

 

[FairWarning]

If you draft the right guys it doesn't matter where you take them.

Shouldn't draft rbs early because of Mostert, Swift, Montgomery, and Kamara. Don't take tight ends early because of Kincaid, LaPorta, Kmet. Don't take wide relievers early, because of Theilan, Evans, Pittman.

There aren't any guarantees in fantasy football.

True, but it’s far easier to replace a qb off the WW in a single qb league.

 

[zamboni]

Looking back at last season McKinnon had 9 receiving TD last year. That's missing this year and Kelce is on pace for 8 TD instead of 12.

While this isn't a Mahomes thread, while we're talking about him in context of the QB landscape, one factor could be if Kelce is finally starting to slow down a bit. Not sure if it's the case yet, but that's for another thread.

 

[jobarules]

Yeah, I don't think it's backfired at all. Unless you have Mahomes (like I do in dynasty), you're pretty happy with your early redraft pick performing so well. You could have Tony Pollard, like I do in one league.

To Pollard, add Barkley, Ekeler & Chubb (RBs get injured more, so part of the strategy), Stevenson, Najee. All top 11 in the FFI experts poll. That's 6 of the top 11 RBs.

The difference is RBs emerge throughout the year. You can always add one (almost every week). But if you draft Mahomes youre never starting a Stroud or Howell. Heck you probably arent even picking those guys up.

Conclusion is... you can make up for a bad draft at RB. You CANNOT make up for a bad draft at WR. Only way to make up for a bad draft at QB is to move on from your starter which people rarely do.

 

[jobarules]

If you draft the right guys it doesn't matter where you take them.

Shouldn't draft rbs early because of Mostert, Swift, Montgomery, and Kamara. Don't take tight ends early because of Kincaid, LaPorta, Kmet. Don't take wide relievers early, because of Theilan, Evans, Pittman.

There aren't any guarantees in fantasy football.

True, but it’s far easier to replace a qb off the WW in a single qb league.

I think its very easy to grab RBs off waivers. And while I agree its easy to replace a QB nobody is ever going to replace mahomes. Instead you ride or die with him

 

[FairWarning]

If you draft the right guys it doesn't matter where you take them.

Shouldn't draft rbs early because of Mostert, Swift, Montgomery, and Kamara. Don't take tight ends early because of Kincaid, LaPorta, Kmet. Don't take wide relievers early, because of Theilan, Evans, Pittman.

There aren't any guarantees in fantasy football.

True, but it’s far easier to replace a qb off the WW in a single qb league.

I think it’s very easy to grab RBs off waivers. And while I agree it’s easy to replace a QB nobody is ever going to replace mahomes. Instead you ride or die with him

You can pick up RB’s off of waivers, but it’s hard to get top-10 production outside of the random game. The last 15 years, you could get a running qb and turn that into gold.

 

[jobarules]

If you draft the right guys it doesn't matter where you take them.

Shouldn't draft rbs early because of Mostert, Swift, Montgomery, and Kamara. Don't take tight ends early because of Kincaid, LaPorta, Kmet. Don't take wide relievers early, because of Theilan, Evans, Pittman.

There aren't any guarantees in fantasy football.

True, but it’s far easier to replace a qb off the WW in a single qb league.

I think it’s very easy to grab RBs off waivers. And while I agree it’s easy to replace a QB nobody is ever going to replace mahomes. Instead you ride or die with him

You can pick up RB’s off of waivers, but it’s hard to get top-10 production outside of the random game. The last 15 years, you could get a running qb and turn that into gold.

With the emphasis on the passing game now, I dont really think its that hard to get RB2 production off the waiver wire every week. I agree with you though. Thats why I suggest going back to RB/WR heavy strategy first 4 or 5 rounds. Take your stud WRs, one stud RB and load up on RBs for inevitable injuries. Then play the waiver wire for your weekly RB2s. Drafting a QB early is for the birds.

 

[Biabreakable]

Looking back at last season McKinnon had 9 receiving TD last year. That's missing this year and Kelce is on pace for 8 TD instead of 12.

While this isn't a Mahomes thread, while we're talking about him in context of the QB landscape, one factor could be if Kelce is finally starting to slow down a bit. Not sure if it's the case yet, but that's for another thread.

Right. I also think that's possible and Kelce is the lynch pin foundation allowing KC to get away with piece meal WR talent.

This thread is directed towards draft philosophy or investment into QB position next year, so I do think it's appropriate to talk about this here.

I didn't even realize McKinnon scored so many receiving TD for a RB last season. That's not really sustainable and it's not happening this year.

I'm sure many of these TD were Jet sweeps or similar types of plays that are more runs than passes, but those plays augment a QBs TD total.

While Andy Reid is the type of creative coach to make such plays more probable, it's still kind of an outlier to have a RB score so many receiving TD.

 

[jobarules]

No question Mahomes is a great QB. But he got paid accordingly and they don't really have the receivers right now which is what you need for him to have in fantasy.

Kelce is still great but he's been banged up and is getting older, then their defense is playing good as well so they dont need Mahomes to put up big numbers to win games.

It's kind of a bad recipe for top notch fantasy numbers.

For fantasy you kind of want your QB to be balls to the wall for 4 quarters like Josh Allen. While what he is doing may not win as many real football games it leads to a lot of points.

I do have some trust that Andy Reid will find some receivers and develop them, but that's a work in progress right now and the production is kind of piece meal and inconsistent.

It's what they have been doing since they let Hill walk really and that may not change for awhile.

Just some things to think about if making a big investment into him for fantasy going forward.

Wasnt Mahomes #1 fantasy QB last year with the same crappy WRs? Yeah I get that their defense is much better this season.

He was which is pretty remarkable.

In some ways he is still on pace to match last year's numbers as well, so maybe some better games to come.

That said his TD % is 5.1 right now which is lower than his career average of 6.3 which is what he had last season as well. It's the lowest TD rate he has had so far in his career not including his rookie season when he only played one game. His adjusted yards per attempt is also down. Currently 7.3 compared to career average of 8.5 this is also the lowest its been besides his one game as a rookie.

So while the passing attempts look about the same the TD and AYPA are down. He will need to really improve on that in the last 8 games or its going to be a somewhat down season for him.

Looking back at last season McKinnon had 9 receiving TD last year. That's missing this year and Kelce is on pace for 8 TD instead of 12.

That's what's missing as far as TD go.

How is he still on pace to match last year's #s?

Hes on pace for 600 yards passing less (due to the lack of any deep threat), 9 less TD passes, 3 MORE Interceptions, 130 MORE yards rushing but NO rushing TDs (when last year he had 4). That's 89 points in my league. Over 17 game schedule thats FIVE POINTS A GAME!

 

[Biabreakable]

No question Mahomes is a great QB. But he got paid accordingly and they don't really have the receivers right now which is what you need for him to have in fantasy.

Kelce is still great but he's been banged up and is getting older, then their defense is playing good as well so they dont need Mahomes to put up big numbers to win games.

It's kind of a bad recipe for top notch fantasy numbers.

For fantasy you kind of want your QB to be balls to the wall for 4 quarters like Josh Allen. While what he is doing may not win as many real football games it leads to a lot of points.

I do have some trust that Andy Reid will find some receivers and develop them, but that's a work in progress right now and the production is kind of piece meal and inconsistent.

It's what they have been doing since they let Hill walk really and that may not change for awhile.

Just some things to think about if making a big investment into him for fantasy going forward.

Wasnt Mahomes #1 fantasy QB last year with the same crappy WRs? Yeah I get that their defense is much better this season.

He was which is pretty remarkable.

In some ways he is still on pace to match last year's numbers as well, so maybe some better games to come.

That said his TD % is 5.1 right now which is lower than his career average of 6.3 which is what he had last season as well. It's the lowest TD rate he has had so far in his career not including his rookie season when he only played one game. His adjusted yards per attempt is also down. Currently 7.3 compared to career average of 8.5 this is also the lowest its been besides his one game as a rookie.

So while the passing attempts look about the same the TD and AYPA are down. He will need to really improve on that in the last 8 games or its going to be a somewhat down season for him.

Looking back at last season McKinnon had 9 receiving TD last year. That's missing this year and Kelce is on pace for 8 TD instead of 12.

That's what's missing as far as TD go.

How is he still on pace to match last year's #s?

Hes on pace for 600 yards passing less (due to the lack of any deep threat), 9 less TD passes, 3 MORE Interceptions, 130 MORE yards rushing but NO rushing TDs (when last year he had 4). That's 89 points in my league. Over 17 game schedule thats FIVE POINTS A GAME!

In terms of passing attempts it's similar.

Completion percentage as well.

 

[jobarules]

No question Mahomes is a great QB. But he got paid accordingly and they don't really have the receivers right now which is what you need for him to have in fantasy.

Kelce is still great but he's been banged up and is getting older, then their defense is playing good as well so they dont need Mahomes to put up big numbers to win games.

It's kind of a bad recipe for top notch fantasy numbers.

For fantasy you kind of want your QB to be balls to the wall for 4 quarters like Josh Allen. While what he is doing may not win as many real football games it leads to a lot of points.

I do have some trust that Andy Reid will find some receivers and develop them, but that's a work in progress right now and the production is kind of piece meal and inconsistent.

It's what they have been doing since they let Hill walk really and that may not change for awhile.

Just some things to think about if making a big investment into him for fantasy going forward.

Wasnt Mahomes #1 fantasy QB last year with the same crappy WRs? Yeah I get that their defense is much better this season.

He was which is pretty remarkable.

In some ways he is still on pace to match last year's numbers as well, so maybe some better games to come.

That said his TD % is 5.1 right now which is lower than his career average of 6.3 which is what he had last season as well. It's the lowest TD rate he has had so far in his career not including his rookie season when he only played one game. His adjusted yards per attempt is also down. Currently 7.3 compared to career average of 8.5 this is also the lowest its been besides his one game as a rookie.

So while the passing attempts look about the same the TD and AYPA are down. He will need to really improve on that in the last 8 games or its going to be a somewhat down season for him.

Looking back at last season McKinnon had 9 receiving TD last year. That's missing this year and Kelce is on pace for 8 TD instead of 12.

That's what's missing as far as TD go.

How is he still on pace to match last year's #s?

Hes on pace for 600 yards passing less (due to the lack of any deep threat), 9 less TD passes, 3 MORE Interceptions, 130 MORE yards rushing but NO rushing TDs (when last year he had 4). That's 89 points in my league. Over 17 game schedule thats FIVE POINTS A GAME!

In terms of passing attempts it's similar.

Completion percentage as well.

Unfortunately I dont get fantasy points for those stats

 

[Biabreakable]

No question Mahomes is a great QB. But he got paid accordingly and they don't really have the receivers right now which is what you need for him to have in fantasy.

Kelce is still great but he's been banged up and is getting older, then their defense is playing good as well so they dont need Mahomes to put up big numbers to win games.

It's kind of a bad recipe for top notch fantasy numbers.

For fantasy you kind of want your QB to be balls to the wall for 4 quarters like Josh Allen. While what he is doing may not win as many real football games it leads to a lot of points.

I do have some trust that Andy Reid will find some receivers and develop them, but that's a work in progress right now and the production is kind of piece meal and inconsistent.

It's what they have been doing since they let Hill walk really and that may not change for awhile.

Just some things to think about if making a big investment into him for fantasy going forward.

Wasnt Mahomes #1 fantasy QB last year with the same crappy WRs? Yeah I get that their defense is much better this season.

He was which is pretty remarkable.

In some ways he is still on pace to match last year's numbers as well, so maybe some better games to come.

That said his TD % is 5.1 right now which is lower than his career average of 6.3 which is what he had last season as well. It's the lowest TD rate he has had so far in his career not including his rookie season when he only played one game. His adjusted yards per attempt is also down. Currently 7.3 compared to career average of 8.5 this is also the lowest its been besides his one game as a rookie.

So while the passing attempts look about the same the TD and AYPA are down. He will need to really improve on that in the last 8 games or its going to be a somewhat down season for him.

Looking back at last season McKinnon had 9 receiving TD last year. That's missing this year and Kelce is on pace for 8 TD instead of 12.

That's what's missing as far as TD go.

How is he still on pace to match last year's #s?

Hes on pace for 600 yards passing less (due to the lack of any deep threat), 9 less TD passes, 3 MORE Interceptions, 130 MORE yards rushing but NO rushing TDs (when last year he had 4). That's 89 points in my league. Over 17 game schedule thats FIVE POINTS A GAME!

In terms of passing attempts it's similar.

Completion percentage as well.

Unfortunately I dont get fantasy points for those stats

You also didn't read my previous post and are making comments implying I meant something that I never did.

Or you are just making an annoying comment for no reason.

 

[jobarules]

No question Mahomes is a great QB. But he got paid accordingly and they don't really have the receivers right now which is what you need for him to have in fantasy.

Kelce is still great but he's been banged up and is getting older, then their defense is playing good as well so they dont need Mahomes to put up big numbers to win games.

It's kind of a bad recipe for top notch fantasy numbers.

For fantasy you kind of want your QB to be balls to the wall for 4 quarters like Josh Allen. While what he is doing may not win as many real football games it leads to a lot of points.

I do have some trust that Andy Reid will find some receivers and develop them, but that's a work in progress right now and the production is kind of piece meal and inconsistent.

It's what they have been doing since they let Hill walk really and that may not change for awhile.

Just some things to think about if making a big investment into him for fantasy going forward.

Wasnt Mahomes #1 fantasy QB last year with the same crappy WRs? Yeah I get that their defense is much better this season.

He was which is pretty remarkable.

In some ways he is still on pace to match last year's numbers as well, so maybe some better games to come.

That said his TD % is 5.1 right now which is lower than his career average of 6.3 which is what he had last season as well. It's the lowest TD rate he has had so far in his career not including his rookie season when he only played one game. His adjusted yards per attempt is also down. Currently 7.3 compared to career average of 8.5 this is also the lowest its been besides his one game as a rookie.

So while the passing attempts look about the same the TD and AYPA are down. He will need to really improve on that in the last 8 games or its going to be a somewhat down season for him.

Looking back at last season McKinnon had 9 receiving TD last year. That's missing this year and Kelce is on pace for 8 TD instead of 12.

That's what's missing as far as TD go.

How is he still on pace to match last year's #s?

Hes on pace for 600 yards passing less (due to the lack of any deep threat), 9 less TD passes, 3 MORE Interceptions, 130 MORE yards rushing but NO rushing TDs (when last year he had 4). That's 89 points in my league. Over 17 game schedule thats FIVE POINTS A GAME!

In terms of passing attempts it's similar.

Completion percentage as well.

Unfortunately I dont get fantasy points for those stats

You also didn't read my previous post and are making comments implying I meant something that I never did.

Or you are just making an annoying comment for no reason.

Huh?

I wasnt implying anything. Just stating a fact.

 

[Deamon]

Also, of the consensus top 6 QBs taken this year, this is where they currently sit:

Allen (QB1)
Hurts (QB2)
Mahomes (QB8)
Jackson (QB5)
Herbert (QB4)
Burrow (QB17 but was injured)

That seems very high, and I'd almost expect this year has given us more "Top 5 QB picks landing in the top 10" as other years. If anything, it validates taking QB early.

God only knows how Lamar Jackson could be QB5 in any scoring system. He's QB9 in mine after his latest dud.

4 per passing Td, and 1 point per 20 yards passing, he's 5th.

 

[Deamon]

I'm not disappointed in Mahomes at all.

Drafting QB8 in the 2nd round is putting your team at a huge disadvantage

Unless you took Allen or Hurts. Owners of those 2 qbs are doing very well in my leagues.

If Mahomes did what he was hoped to do, you wouldn't make this claim. It's only a "disadvantage" if the player under performs.

 

[Deamon]

Here's the top 12 QBs and where they were drafted in my league (I understand some of these guys didnt have their bye):

1. Allen 3rd
2. Hurts 3rd
3. Howell undrafted
4. Herbert 5th
5. Stroud undrafted
6. LJax 4th
7. Prescott 8th
8. Mahomes 2nd
9. Tua 11th
10. Dobbs undrafted
11. Purdy undrafted
12. Cousins 11th

It’s this + the scoring differential. We’re a 6 point TD league. Through 10 weeks
Allen - 270
Hurts - 250
Then 12 QB’s between 200-232

maybe the cream will rise. I own Mahomes so hope so. But it hasn’t been the haves and have nots like last year

Then why did you suggest Allen was a fantasy disappointment?

 

[WaltonGoggins]

I think it has worked fine for Hurts, Allen, Herbert, and for the most part, Lamar owners, despite some dud weeks. Mahomes and Burrow, definitely not. Those are disappointments FF-wise, although that is due mostly to injury and having a vastly improved D (Chiefs). I'd say Mahomes even more as he was drafted several rounds earlier than Burrow.

And yes, this is only for fantasy, Mahomes is still the best QB in real football.

Mahomes is still the best QB in real football? This year? Based on what? If based on the past I’d agree but this year real football my eyes must be lying to me cause he ain’t it.

 

[LionOfGosforth]

Also, of the consensus top 6 QBs taken this year, this is where they currently sit:

Allen (QB1)
Hurts (QB2)
Mahomes (QB8)
Jackson (QB5)
Herbert (QB4)
Burrow (QB17 but was injured)

That seems very high, and I'd almost expect this year has given us more "Top 5 QB picks landing in the top 10" as other years. If anything, it validates taking QB early.

God only knows how Lamar Jackson could be QB5 in any scoring system. He's QB9 in mine after his latest dud.

4 per passing Td, and 1 point per 20 yards passing, he's 5th.

I still don't get it. How does 4pt per passing td and 1/20 yards make him QB5? There are by my count 13 QBs with more passing yards and 18 with more passing tds(!!). Heck, even Derek Carr has more passing yards and he's useless. Kirk Cousins has more yards and tds and he's been on IR for 2 weeks. Surely there has to be something in the rushing stats skewed heavily to make him QB5?

Edit - Lamar hasn't even had his BYE week either while quite a few who have outscored him so far have had theirs. Makes him look even worse. He's basically Josh Dobbs at this point and for a 4th rounder, one of my worst selections at QB ever.

 

[Mookie Gizzy]

In my league 6pt pass TD top 4 teams 2 are 8-2 2 are 7-3. These are the starting QBs for those teams.
1) Purdy
2) Geno
3) Lamar
4) Dak
Yeah, I say wait to draft your QB