I’m not sure this year is the year to be making a whole lot of determinations on draft strategy. There have been a TON of injuries and just all around screwiness to this year.
Sure taking Mahomes or Burrow or Jackson high might not have worked out great.
But how are the guys who drafted Barkley, Chubb, Henry, Pollard, Harris, Stevenson, Mixon, Bijan feeling?
How about the guys who took Adams, Kupp, Smith, Higgins, Ridley, Metcalf, Samuel, Wilson, Waddle, Olave? Or maybe even Jefferson at this point?
I’m not a smart enough math guy to figure this out, but it’d be kinda interesting to see what the standard deviation is for the difference between draft spot and current ranking for say the top 30-36 guys drafted using ADP. That would be one way to compare how well off you were on average drafting each position at their ADP as compared to other positions. I think.
Yeah trying to predict injuries or who is going to underperform/ overperform isnt close to an exact science. Trying to predict injuries is a complete fools errand. Ive got 3 players on your lists and am at 7-3 tied for 2nd place by record and out of first place by 40ish points by points. Nobodys rankings will ever be anywhere close to accurate. To me the early qb vs late qb has its own category and over the long haul can be studied. Joe Bryant has decided that waiting till late to get a qb is the best strategy and in my league that began in 1997 that has certainly proven to be the better strategy. Without those people who DO draft a qb early drafting a qb late completely falls on its face so I encourage any and all of you that draft qbs early to keep up the good work !!!! lol
Just out of curiosity, do you play just the 1 league? I mostly play on FFPC and what you are selling isn’t really happening over there. I play many leagues, one thing I have learned over the years, any strategy can work, as long as you pick the right guys. There were lots of land minds in the 2nd and 3rd/4th this year. Avoiding those is always key.
While true, there have been some breakout QB’s this year. It’s the pivoting to those guys that isn’t as easy as you make it sound. I waited for QB on a few teams this year, I ended up with guys like Richardson, Geno, Watson and Goff. It hasn’t really worked that well for those teams.
This year I cut back to just my main league but keep in mind that league has been running since 1997 so my way of thinking comes from many years of this league and other leagues I have been in in the past. I drafted Richardson ( who you must know was doing very well untill he got injured repeatedly) and Geno ( who got off to a rough start and has done well in 3 of the last 4 games. I also traded for goff who hasnt been spectacular but is a #1 as of now. Its certainly easier to pivot to one of those breakout players if you drafted a qb late than if you drafted one who is underperforming early.
Richardson was doing very well …. Well kind of.
week 1 - an awesome 24.15 in 4pts per passsing TD
week 2 - 18.30 pts in less than a quarter, pretty amazing considering that, but still only 18pts
week 3 - 0 points, did not play
week 4 - 32.6 - BOOM, that’s what I am talking about!
week 5 - 5.4 and done for the year
Allen, Hurts and Mahomes, in order
week 1 - 15.2, 15.4, 22.8
week2 - 28.15, 26.4, 25.25
week 3 - 24.65, 24.5, 28.4
week 4- 27.35, 39.7, 17.25
week 5 - 31.35, 32.35, 22.05
Knowing your bar for “very good”, what would you rate this group right here?