Also what do fake punts from the 20 and 30 yard lines get you?
More EPA than virtually any play available?
A
this actually happened 97 yard TD pass from Big Ben to JuJu added 9.50 EPA. It wasn’t just the 6 points + PAT - you also robbed EPA from the opponent (alas, Detroit) who expected to have a short field in their next possession.
Put another way, EPA is a funny thing, since on offense it can be greater than a touchdown. That makes sense, because if you’re backed up against your own endzone, you’re expected 1) not to score on the drive and 2) the other team is more likely to score on their next drive because of the short field.
When a team enters the red zone that’s worth, on average, an EPA of 5.00. A pick 6 or a scoop n score by the defense when you’re in the red zone can result in an EPA of (-12.00)
EPA of Different Types of Plays
(baseline averages pulled from analyzing 11 years of every NFL game)
(-0.043) Any rushing attempt
(-0.019) Any punt
+0.025 Any Pass Attempt
+0.192 A peak-Tom Brady Pass Attempt
+1.369 Any Fake Punt
Remember, these are
baseline averages. Actual EPA will have other inputs such as down, distance, field position, score, time remaining, etc al.
For the Fake Punt +EPA they looked at around 22,000 punts, of which 177 were fakes - less than 1%. Obviously, the negative EPA from a failed attempt is relatively large as well.
I need to confirm but I think Campbell/Fipp have a success rate around 75% on fake punts.
(3/4 passing, 6/8 rushing - but will confirm, been meaning to get to that all week)
There are certain looks they get which dictate they’ll go unless it gets killed. There are other times when it’s called but the PR team is in the wrong look so JRM or Fox will kill it.
Circling back to our baseline…a Tom Brady | Patrick Mahomes pass attempt is a LOT HIGHER than a Joe Smuckatelli pass attempt.
But a fake punt? That adds 7 times as much EPA as a TB drop back.
The next highest +EPA added play? Offensive Trick Plays. Huge swings.
Ain’t nothing more satisfying than watching folks underestimate someone because of a folksy meathead persona. Keep slinging, folks.
MCDC blows away every other NFL coach in EPA added, year in year out. Guess the big dummy just gets lucky by trusting his gut, eh? Sure, Jan, sure.
EDIT
The data scientist nerds who did the EPA study have it stored behind a paywall. I have access but it’s extremely difficult to copy pasta and retain the formatting,
I’ll root around and see if I can unearth elsewhere. Otherwise posting it will be a project for another day. I end up copying to Notepad then importing than going through and cleaning it up. The tables are all images so that has to be manually entered. Meh
Anyway, it’s a good read, would love to share it when I find the time.