It was desperation. He only had two plays left regardless. He thought his best chance to score was a run. He counted on his team to execute. You call it dumb, but thst is leadership and trust and why every player on the Lions team will do anything for Dan. Not stupid at all.
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HC Dan Campbell, DET (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter MSULions
- Start date
socrates
Footballguy
I thought I was going to win the lottery last week. I still set my alarm clock, and I didn't have to call in sick the next day. If DC's explanation is that he had no contingency plan because he thought they were going to score on third down, it suggests he is not nearly as bright as I had considered him. Campbell is one of the good guys in the NFL. I like him. Fantastic that he had such confidence in his players. I do not even have an issue with him calling a running play on third down IF he intended to go for it on fourth down. However, you have to have two plays called on third down as a contingency that you need to run a fourth down play. Calling two plays is not disrespecting the confidence he has in his players, but merely planning for all contingencies. That is what good coaches do.
The only reason you run is that you are very confident you are going to score.
kutta
Footballguy
Right. I agree. But he didn't call a pass. And calling the TO after the run was a mistake. But he didn't say that. He said the run didn't work so he "had to" call a timeout there.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Yeah, I'm totally in the tank for Campbell, but he screwed up twice on that play: both the run and the TO. The best thing you can say is that it only dropped the Lions' WP% from 3.8% to 1.2%, so it's not like that was what cost them the game. But purely as a matter of coaching intelligence, it was not a good move. It happens. Coaches screw up. I hope he learns from it.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Rude thing to say about Campbell
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
-jb-
Footballguy
casual fans wouldnt get it, but would have been cool to see people wiping wing sauce off their shirt and relate it to the lineman eligibility saga.
That win should have cost them Hutchinson, but luckily it did not.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
from r/NFL
first reply: "He has an alibi, he was at Applebee's"
first reply: "He has an alibi, he was at Applebee's"
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Lions vs. Rams postgame locker room celebration
different edit (from Lions IG)
different edit (from Lions IG)
- first game ball goes to David Montgomery
- second game ball goes to Alex Anzalone (13 tackles)
- not shown - Jamo also got a game ball
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Credit to Dan Campbell, last night was one of his best for in game decisions.
Coach’s in game managementgas has grown ever year. They have an elite culture, MCDC is an incredible motivator, they’re very good at talent evaluation, et al.
So much that they get right, but everyone has blind spots.
One (perceived) weakness is not making optimal decisions in critical moments; thought he did quite well last night.
- Went for it on fourth down once
- …but still settled for the field later in the drive
- trusted his defense with 4 minutes left
- punted instead on going for 4th and 5 in their own territory
- managed the clock wisely to end the 4th quarter with little to no time left for LA
(imperfectly? debateable, but there was clear intent to achieve the best outcome) - took the field goal to go to overtime
- ran the ball down their throats in OT
Coach’s in game management
So much that they get right, but everyone has blind spots.
One (perceived) weakness is not making optimal decisions in critical moments; thought he did quite well last night.
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I don't think Jamo got a game ball from Campbell.. Campbell was pretty clear he was handing out two game balls. I think that came from Goff during the network TV interview and they were trying to give Goff the game ball as the player of the game, but he said Jamo is the man who deserves it and handed it to Jamo.
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TampaMike19
Footballguy
Where have I seen this headline before?
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Campbell goofed after the MNF game, giving Jamo his first game ball when Goff set an NFL record going 18 for 18 passing.
Week 6, he started off his locker room speech with "I made sure I looked at some stats this week"
Here is how the scene ended
Week 6, he started off his locker room speech with "I made sure I looked at some stats this week"
Here is how the scene ended
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
missed this earlier.....yeah clearly the game ball Jamo had was a special edition for the SNF telecast
Week 4 Jamo got his first locker room game ball
they also give out game balls each week during their first team meeting, after the coaches have broken down the All 22s
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Locker room game balls
One of my favorite things after the Lions win is the Dan Campbell locker room speeches
At the beginning of the video you see him getting up from kneeling (team prayer following every game) screaming the name of the first player to get one
One of my favorite things after the Lions win is the Dan Campbell locker room speeches
At the beginning of the video you see him getting up from kneeling (team prayer following every game) screaming the name of the first player to get one
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Dan Campbell's record in 2021 and through 10/31/2022
4-19-1 .188
Dan Campbell's record since Halloween 2022
27-9-0 .750
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Ooh that's a scary stat.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
It's amazing that, for the first time in my 51 years on this planet, the Lions are legit Super Bowl contenders (even when they made the NFCCG in '91, I didn't consider them to be contenders, because they were so clearly inferior to Washington).
But I actually think the fact that they have a coach I like and respect so damn much might be even better. What is there to dislike about this team? OK, Kerby Joseph has a habit of blowing up TE's knees, and Jamo seems to have trouble getting his stuff together. Beyond that, it's the kind of organization you dream of rooting for.
Compare that to Cleveland, another sad-sack franchise that made a smart hire in Stefanski, then napalmed any goodwill they had by signing Watson. The Lions, and MCDC in particular, always seem to do both the right thing and the smart thing
kutta
Footballguy
I can live with it. I love the way this team plays. I don’t want them changing.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
And it didn't cost them in the playoffs last year. That would be Josh Reynolds dropping a pass any of us could catch, a fumble, and a ball off a CBs facemask into Brandon Aiyuk's hands. Taking chances is what got them there but of course nobody ever remembers all the times it works.
Moonlight
Footballguy
The
Campbell got his dander up because the fancy tackle eligible play was messed up by the ref. If you believe in your team you also believe it can win in overtime as well. Going for two from the 7 yard line is not a percentage play.
Sorry but I do not agree. There’s a time to lay up and there’s a time to take a chance. Campbell cost them the Cowboys game last year. Continuing to go for the two points from the 7 yard line was dumb. Kicking the extra point gives you opportunity to win in overtime.
Campbell got his dander up because the fancy tackle eligible play was messed up by the ref. If you believe in your team you also believe it can win in overtime as well. Going for two from the 7 yard line is not a percentage play.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Hard to understand why all the "good coaches" are not hitting at an 80% or 90% rate.Ooh that's a scary stat.
Moonlight
Footballguy
Also what do fake punts from the 20 and 30 yard lines get you? You get to keep the ball but you have no opportunity to score. You still need to drive the ball down the field in order to get In scoring range.
But if you fail and there are several ways to fail your opponent is likely to score. Lions gave free points to the Vikes which almost cost them the game.
But if you fail and there are several ways to fail your opponent is likely to score. Lions gave free points to the Vikes which almost cost them the game.
Moonlight
Footballguy
In the game against SF last year in the second half there was a key play when the Lions got overly cute and lined St. Brown in the backfield. And amazingly handed it off to him on a run up the middle. They ended up short of the first down by a few yards and then went for it on 4th down and failed.
Ball was not given to Montgomery between the tackles but St Brown.
Rewatch that game and you’ll see what a difference that play made.
As far as I know that screw up was on Johnson and not Campbell. Point is needlessly striving to show you are the smartest guy in the room is going to backfire.
Ball was not given to Montgomery between the tackles but St Brown.
Rewatch that game and you’ll see what a difference that play made.
As far as I know that screw up was on Johnson and not Campbell. Point is needlessly striving to show you are the smartest guy in the room is going to backfire.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Gotta love retrovision. Sounds like someone else thinks he's the smartest guy in the room. Did Campbell or Johnson cause those fumbles? Did he cause Josh Reynolds to drop an easy pass? Did he cause that ball to bounce off Vildors mask?
Moonlight
Footballguy
My point is bad things happen and you don’t compound them by coaching mistakes. Lions display against the Cowboys this year was bush league. Running Sewell as wide receiver after the game was well in hand was rubbing it in the face of the Cowboys.
The ref screwed up last year’s game not the Cowboys.
Detroit doesn’t seem to be comfortable with the success they are having as they haven’t been there before. One of the things about Barry Sanders was that in merely turning the ball over to the ref after a touchdown he said act like you’ve been in the end zone before.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
This is a good point imo
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Yet again nobody ever remembers when these gambets work and the offense keeps possession and scores. Because it doesn't fit their narrative.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Dan Campbell did nothing wrong
The Lions head coach is going to be besieged with criticism from results-based analysts and talking heads. He shouldn't be.
www.nbcsports.com
Spartans Rule
Footballguy
I think the fake punts have probably hit the point of diminishing returns where they’ve lost any element of surprise. Other than that I’m all for Campbell continuing to be aggressive.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Good points but it accomplishes the goal of putting it in the heads of opposing coaches. Instead of a standard return they now need to keep a spy on the punter.
Moonlight
Footballguy
I
You can think of Campbell as a good coach and still criticize him for being overly stubborn and aggressive and emotional. Getting back to the original take playoff games are elimination games. You can’t make it up later in the season.Hard to understand why all the "good coaches" are not hitting at an 80% or 90% rate.Ooh that's a scary stat.
Fake punts from 20s and thirties will cost you. Good coaches are more likely to be on the alert for them.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
More EPA than virtually any play available?
A this actually happened 97 yard TD pass from Big Ben to JuJu added 9.50 EPA. It wasn’t just the 6 points + PAT - you also robbed EPA from the opponent (alas, Detroit) who expected to have a short field in their next possession.
Put another way, EPA is a funny thing, since on offense it can be greater than a touchdown. That makes sense, because if you’re backed up against your own endzone, you’re expected 1) not to score on the drive and 2) the other team is more likely to score on their next drive because of the short field.
When a team enters the red zone that’s worth, on average, an EPA of 5.00. A pick 6 or a scoop n score by the defense when you’re in the red zone can result in an EPA of (-12.00)
EPA of Different Types of Plays
(baseline averages pulled from analyzing 11 years of every NFL game)
(-0.043) Any rushing attempt
(-0.019) Any punt
+0.025 Any Pass Attempt
+0.192 A peak-Tom Brady Pass Attempt
+1.369 Any Fake Punt
Remember, these are baseline averages. Actual EPA will have other inputs such as down, distance, field position, score, time remaining, etc al.
For the Fake Punt +EPA they looked at around 22,000 punts, of which 177 were fakes - less than 1%. Obviously, the negative EPA from a failed attempt is relatively large as well.
I need to confirm but I think Campbell/Fipp have a success rate around 75% on fake punts.
(3/4 passing, 6/8 rushing - but will confirm, been meaning to get to that all week)
There are certain looks they get which dictate they’ll go unless it gets killed. There are other times when it’s called but the PR team is in the wrong look so JRM or Fox will kill it.
Circling back to our baseline…a Tom Brady | Patrick Mahomes pass attempt is a LOT HIGHER than a Joe Smuckatelli pass attempt.
But a fake punt? That adds 7 times as much EPA as a TB drop back.
The next highest +EPA added play? Offensive Trick Plays. Huge swings.
Ain’t nothing more satisfying than watching folks underestimate someone because of a folksy meathead persona. Keep slinging, folks.
MCDC blows away every other NFL coach in EPA added, year in year out. Guess the big dummy just gets lucky by trusting his gut, eh? Sure, Jan, sure.
EDIT
The data scientist nerds who did the EPA study have it stored behind a paywall. I have access but it’s extremely difficult to copy pasta and retain the formatting,
I’ll root around and see if I can unearth elsewhere. Otherwise posting it will be a project for another day. I end up copying to Notepad then importing than going through and cleaning it up. The tables are all images so that has to be manually entered. Meh
Anyway, it’s a good read, would love to share it when I find the time.
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Moonlight
Footballguy
Do your stats take into account where the fake punt was run lets say for example the 34 yard line or the 28 yard line and distance needed for a first down such as 7 yards
Or does it address whether the team scored on that drive.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Wish he were the Miami Coach, oh that's right he was...
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
What did you think these words I wrote (you quoted) meant?
Remember, these are baseline averages. Actual EPA will have other inputs such as down, distance, field position, score, time remaining, etc al.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Maybe I should stop presuming that people understand how math works.
Baseline EPA is the starting number, modified by situation: down, distance, score, time. Then the result of the play adds or subtracts to the (baseline + situational factors) to give you the +EPA or (-EPA) from each play.
Baseline EPA is the starting number, modified by situation: down, distance, score, time. Then the result of the play adds or subtracts to the (baseline + situational factors) to give you the +EPA or (-EPA) from each play.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
The most highly leveraged plays, by orders of magnitude, are fake punts and offensive trick plays.
Dan Campbell doesn’t call them because he’s reckless. He does it because it has the greatest return. They are risky calls; accept the risk and go ahead, then live with the results. Because of the personnel they have and the schematic advantage Ben Johnson and Dave Fipp provide, their success rate is far above average, bordering on elite.
Dan Campbell doesn’t call them because he’s reckless. He does it because it has the greatest return. They are risky calls; accept the risk and go ahead, then live with the results. Because of the personnel they have and the schematic advantage Ben Johnson and Dave Fipp provide, their success rate is far above average, bordering on elite.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Don’t presume anything
For clarity, by highly leveraged I mean these are changing plays - in both directions. If you trust your guys and they repeatedly execute them in game, you gain confidence.
They had the look they needed on their first possession. The players did not execute, which is rare for Detroit’s discuss teams. The play should have worked based on the alignment and number of defenders in the box.
MMQBs immediately concluded from the result if the players “oh they’re on to us, we should stop doing those plays because they were expecting it.”
Not true. Thats not the reason the play failed. Couple guys missed their blocking assignment. Stuff happens.
For clarity, by highly leveraged I mean these are changing plays - in both directions. If you trust your guys and they repeatedly execute them in game, you gain confidence.
They had the look they needed on their first possession. The players did not execute, which is rare for Detroit’s discuss teams. The play should have worked based on the alignment and number of defenders in the box.
MMQBs immediately concluded from the result if the players “oh they’re on to us, we should stop doing those plays because they were expecting it.”
Not true. Thats not the reason the play failed. Couple guys missed their blocking assignment. Stuff happens.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I’m gonna take the rest of the night off. Our ongoing medical situation at home has increased my irritability to unacceptable levels.
Cya Sunday.
Going horse back riding tomorrow, something I’ve started doing with other veterans once a month. Love getting out of the city and spending the day on a farm (+ no hospital for a few days.)
Cya Sunday.
Going horse back riding tomorrow, something I’ve started doing with other veterans once a month. Love getting out of the city and spending the day on a farm (+ no hospital for a few days.)
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Lions vs. Titans post-game locker room speech
3 game balls
ETA - they only showed 2 game balls getting handed out in the locker room; the third went to Amik Robertson. 2 forced fumbles, both recovered by Detroit.
3 game balls
ETA - they only showed 2 game balls getting handed out in the locker room; the third went to Amik Robertson. 2 forced fumbles, both recovered by Detroit.
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