I also thought he was a bit of a clown for that press conference, but it appears I've held off on comment, so I'm glad I didn't judge too harshly.
But yeah, I was sort of with Andy. When he started going for it in "weird" situations was when I started to believe in the guy. He believed in his team and was probably more in tune with "analytics" than we thought he would be. Good for him and good for the Lions.
It starts up top, though, and Sheila Hamp has put together a heck on an organization. If only the Johnsons would do that with the Jets.
I've never heard him specifically address his reasons for aggressive play calling. I actually wonder if it's less about analytics and more about setting a tone for the team. The anti-analytics folks always talk about psychology and momentum and such in negative terms, but, particularly over a long time period, you could definitely make the case that a coach setting a tone that he believes in his players to come through in key situations would have positive knock-on effects.
Whether or not that's true, Campbell strikes me as the type of leader who spends a lot more time thinking about how he can motivate his players than he does how to eke out a few more percentage points of win probability.
And totally agree on Hamp Ford. She started out by getting Spielman as a consultant, then hired Holmes, then Campbell. I look at Mark Davis paying tens of millions to fired coaches and think, "There but for the grace of God ..."
Before his first season he spoke at length in one of his regular press conferences about his philosophy about analytics & how he intended to operate his in-game decision making. He strongly believes in knowing and utilizing analytics - he’s closer to optimal than any other head coach, and adds more win probability as a direct result from his 4th down decisions. He’s also acutely aware that situational football means in part means understanding your team, their capabilities, and discerning how it will affect both his guys and the other team.
Like a lot of things he said that first year, he has stayed true to his vision. He’s the same guy he was in 2021, 2022, throughout last year. He is the epitome of being your authentic true self.
Dan Campbell is a very self-aware person. He understands the weight of his words. He knows when to push them and when to dial it back. Whether he puts them in pads during season or runs a hard TC practice, he explains to the team why he is doing what he is doing. Everyone under him - coordinators, assistants, the young quality control guys doing the grunt work, all 69 players - knows that the only rules are respect your teammates, work hard, and be yourself.
Is he too aggressive sometimes, have there been occasions it’s been detrimental? Yes…although I would hasten to add he was better in game in Y2 than Y1, and better Y3 than Y2. He is most aggressive HC in the league but he’s not reckless. He’s simply closer to optimal than anyone else, by a good margin.
His players love his style. I’ve seen many posts here from people who don’t follow the team closely that he’s aggressive and tries to steal possessions bc he has a talent deficit and isn’t confident they can win playing it close to the vest. Very off-base; he plays it aggressive bc he understands the advantage that gives them, and he trusts his players to execute.
The team love that he trusts them so much. When it doesn’t work out - they’re 7 for 9 on fake punts the last 3 seasons - they know he’s got their back and they are that much more motivated to minimizing the damage from the failure.
They’re great at complimentary football. That’s a thing for them. If the offense is in a lull, the defense steps up. When they’re getting roasted by a stud WR the Goffense pushes harder on the pedal to keep up. When they make turnover the defense gets a stop creates a turnover.
What they never do is panic. Doesn’t matter if you give up 3 or 4 explosives if you come back the next play and make the play that swings the game. 3 n outs don’t mean anything when you go 75 yards two or three times in a row bc that is what it will take to win that day. They never turtle up when they’re ahead, it’s all gas no breaks - keep applying pressure & the other team will make mistakes.
For the past 66 seasons they’ve been the same ole Lions. Now they’re the brand new Lions; instead of finding creative new ways or obscure rules to blow a game, they’re making plays, they’re running the 4 minute offense to close it out, they’re getting the sack or interception that changes the outcome.
Belief is a powerful thing.
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