Help me solve the mystery of the Carolina offense (1 Viewer)

[Lord Fantasy]

In 2010 the Carolina Panthers were ranked dead last in average yards per game (258.4) and dead last in touchdowns (17).

In 2011 the Panthers were ranked 7th in yards/game (389.8) and 5th in TDs (48).

In the space of that year three things changed for the Panthers:

1. The drafting of Cam Newton

2. The addition of offensive coordinator Rod Chudzinksi

3. A schedule that contained 12 bottom-half defenses (and only 2 top-ten defenses) compared to 8 bottom-half defenses (and 5 top-ten defenses).

My question, then, is this:

In trying to understand what happened, how much weight do place on each variable? Cam was awesome, but how much credit does his coordinator get? Would he have fared as well against stiffer defenses?

Also, going forward how much weight do you put on talent versus coaching versus schedule when trying to figure out 2012?

Is Jeff Fisher enough to transform the Rams?

Are the Redskins a talent boost (i.e. RGIII) away from lifting themselves out of mediocrity?

Are largely unchanged teams like Cincinnati doomed to stasis?

Thanks for your responses. As always I bow in respect to the 'Pool.

 

[karmarooster]

I'm a little concerned with the panthers offense for a few reasons. Other than Lafell, they don't have many passing options outside of Steve Smith (and I guess Olsen at TE). Second, the passing numbers declined in the second half when teams adjusted to Cam and limited his downfield passing. And the strength of schedule issues that you point out.

As such I wouldn't be surpirsed if the passing offense/Smith/Cam in general fall a bit. I also expect some value at the RB position for JStew and DWill. The only factor that worries me is the addition of Tolbert - I expect he will cut into Stewarts PPR value.

Overvalued - Cam, Possibly Smith although he figures to get his even if the passing offense declines

Undervalued - Olsen, DWill

 

[Buck Stop]

Don't sleep on Gettis too. He looked VERY good 2 years ago and should be fully recovered from his injury last year. He reminded a lot of people of Colston in 2010.

 

[gandalas]

Look for Santana Moss to potentially have a Steve Smith-type turnaround this year.

The similarities are almost Eerie

Height/Weight: Smith 5'9, 185; Moss 5'10, 189 check

Crappy QBs previous year: Smith - Clausen; Moss - mix of Grossman and Beck check

Experience/Age: Smith - 32/11th season; Moss - 33/12th season check

Prior Success: Smith - 103/1563/12 in 2005; Moss - 84/1483/9 in 2005 check

If RG3 can throw the deep ball like we think he can and Moss can still get over the coverage like he used to be able to, then we could have a repeat of last season. Their career numbers are almost identical: 699/10276/59 for Smith, 639/9142/56 for Moss.

I think if anyone can breakout, it will be this guy. From rumors that he was in danger of being cut to the most recent report that he will serve as the #1 WR for the team, he could VASTLY outperform his ADP, and be the Steve Smith of 2012.

 

[simey]

In 2010 the Carolina Panthers were ranked dead last in average yards per game (258.4) and dead last in touchdowns (17).In 2011 the Panthers were ranked 7th in yards/game (389.8) and 5th in TDs (48). In the space of that year three things changed for the Panthers:1. The drafting of Cam Newton2. The addition of offensive coordinator Rod Chudzinksi3. A schedule that contained 12 bottom-half defenses (and only 2 top-ten defenses) compared to 8 bottom-half defenses (and 5 top-ten defenses). My question, then, is this:In trying to understand what happened, how much weight do place on each variable? Cam was awesome, but how much credit does his coordinator get? Would he have fared as well against stiffer defenses? Also, going forward how much weight do you put on talent versus coaching versus schedule when trying to figure out 2012?

In 2010 the team had been gutted, and Fox was coaching what everyone knew would be his last year. That season was setup for complete failure, and owner Jerry Richardson played a big hand in that. He was gearing up for the lockout, and a high pick in the 2011 draft was fine by him. In 2010 the QB position struggled with Moore, Clausen, and Pike. It was awful. Steve Smith was asked to block half the time, and run the same routes over and over again. Defenses stacked the box, because they knew the QB position was struggling. It was one terrible thing after another, but the team never quit.In 2011, Cam made a world of difference, as did a new coach bringing with him a new offensive philosophy that he and his offensive coordinator shared, and that revitalized the offense. They were excited. The addition of Olsen and Shockey made a difference too. I expect both LaFell and Gettis to improve a lot this year, and I expect the RBs to have more chances at the GL this year. I think Cam will still run it in occasionally if he sees a clearing, but not as much as last year.

 

[Clifford]

In 2010 the Carolina Panthers were ranked dead last in average yards per game (258.4) and dead last in touchdowns (17).In 2011 the Panthers were ranked 7th in yards/game (389.8) and 5th in TDs (48). In the space of that year three things changed for the Panthers:1. The drafting of Cam Newton2. The addition of offensive coordinator Rod Chudzinksi3. A schedule that contained 12 bottom-half defenses (and only 2 top-ten defenses) compared to 8 bottom-half defenses (and 5 top-ten defenses). My question, then, is this:In trying to understand what happened, how much weight do place on each variable? Cam was awesome, but how much credit does his coordinator get? Would he have fared as well against stiffer defenses? Also, going forward how much weight do you put on talent versus coaching versus schedule when trying to figure out 2012? Is Jeff Fisher enough to transform the Rams? Are the Redskins a talent boost (i.e. RGIII) away from lifting themselves out of mediocrity? Are largely unchanged teams like Cincinnati doomed to stasis? Thanks for your responses. As always I bow in respect to the 'Pool.

Here's all u need to know for 2012:Cam and steve smith are the only guys you want starting for your team. D-will and j stew will disappoint unless one goes down, and even then I doubt you are getting a true rb1. Either one could turn in a top five finish for a week but you won't be able to count on it. And to your question, it's 99% cam and 1% everything else. He played one year in the SEC and won the heisman and the natl championship. Look at what Auburn was before and after him. That's how good he is.

 

[-jb-]

I think some folks are missing what Cooley's Angels is asking for. I think he's trying to determine who this year's version of the Panthers will be, not who to own on the Panthers.

That said, I have no idea.

 

[Clifford]

Colts, redskins, browns are the obvious candidates. I think Tennessee has a chance if they grow some balls and start Locker. Rams are still a year or two away.

Solid analysis on Moss.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Interesting thread Cooley.

You gotta believe that as good as Cam looked last year that with an entire off season that he should be if not as good perhaps even a little better. When i say better, I mean better at dissecting defenses, better at quick reads, better at figuring out where the blitz is coming from, not so much in terms of yards and TDs. So if you figure he was a big part of the turnaround then you would want to carry that over to this year. Same with his OC Chud, new HC Rivera, all that returns.

I feel they will be lethal in the running game as teams are going to have to respect the pass. Steve Smith and Cam Newton flashed some serious "it" factor last year between the 2 of them. Brandon LaFell had a 17 ypc avg and with Naanee gone he has been slated as the WR2. Those are not my words and conjecture, that is what Rivera and entire coaching staff have said. I will entertain Gettis/LaFell talk in 2013, but for 2012 I am 80% sure that LaFell is going to have a field day lined up opposite Steve Smith. Olsen at TE is no slouch either. You add in the RBs and Carolina has a lot of skill position players that can hurt you. Their OL is not bad either so that always helps.

Cam Newton-Drafted a little high for my taste

Steve Smith-Top10 candidate for me

Brandon LaFell-Should outperform his draft slot

Greg Olsen-Makes a nice TE2 or low end TE1

DWill-Better than last year

JStew-As good as last year

 

[whatadai]

Look for Santana Moss to potentially have a Steve Smith-type turnaround this year.

The similarities are almost Eerie

Height/Weight: Smith 5'9, 185; Moss 5'10, 189 check

Crappy QBs previous year: Smith - Clausen; Moss - mix of Grossman and Beck check

Experience/Age: Smith - 32/11th season; Moss - 33/12th season check

Prior Success: Smith - 103/1563/12 in 2005; Moss - 84/1483/9 in 2005 check

If RG3 can throw the deep ball like we think he can and Moss can still get over the coverage like he used to be able to, then we could have a repeat of last season. Their career numbers are almost identical: 699/10276/59 for Smith, 639/9142/56 for Moss.

I think if anyone can breakout, it will be this guy. From rumors that he was in danger of being cut to the most recent report that he will serve as the #1 WR for the team, he could VASTLY outperform his ADP, and be the Steve Smith of 2012.

Wow...it's that easy? Those 4 things together make an awesome WR? Man...all that time wasted by thousands of people watching thousands of hours of video on thousands of players.

 

[karmarooster]

Interesting thread Cooley. You gotta believe that as good as Cam looked last year that with an entire off season that he should be if not as good perhaps even a little better. When i say better, I mean better at dissecting defenses, better at quick reads, better at figuring out where the blitz is coming from, not so much in terms of yards and TDs. So if you figure he was a big part of the turnaround then you would want to carry that over to this year. Same with his OC Chud, new HC Rivera, all that returns. I feel they will be lethal in the running game as teams are going to have to respect the pass. Steve Smith and Cam Newton flashed some serious "it" factor last year between the 2 of them. Brandon LaFell had a 17 ypc avg and with Naanee gone he has been slated as the WR2. Those are not my words and conjecture, that is what Rivera and entire coaching staff have said. I will entertain Gettis/LaFell talk in 2013, but for 2012 I am 80% sure that LaFell is going to have a field day lined up opposite Steve Smith. Olsen at TE is no slouch either. You add in the RBs and Carolina has a lot of skill position players that can hurt you. Their OL is not bad either so that always helps. Cam Newton-Drafted a little high for my tasteSteve Smith-Top10 candidate for meBrandon LaFell-Should outperform his draft slotGreg Olsen-Makes a nice TE2 or low end TE1DWill-Better than last yearJStew-As good as last year

Are you concerned by the signing of Mike Tolbert as a 3rd down back cutting into Stewart's receptions?

 

[stbugs]

Look for Santana Moss to potentially have a Steve Smith-type turnaround this year.

The similarities are almost Eerie

Height/Weight: Smith 5'9, 185; Moss 5'10, 189 check

Crappy QBs previous year: Smith - Clausen; Moss - mix of Grossman and Beck check

Experience/Age: Smith - 32/11th season; Moss - 33/12th season check

Prior Success: Smith - 103/1563/12 in 2005; Moss - 84/1483/9 in 2005 check

If RG3 can throw the deep ball like we think he can and Moss can still get over the coverage like he used to be able to, then we could have a repeat of last season. Their career numbers are almost identical: 699/10276/59 for Smith, 639/9142/56 for Moss.

I think if anyone can breakout, it will be this guy. From rumors that he was in danger of being cut to the most recent report that he will serve as the #1 WR for the team, he could VASTLY outperform his ADP, and be the Steve Smith of 2012.

Agree on Moss. I was shocked when I heard about him not making the team when they had needs at WR. Moss, when healthy, has been pretty decent in my PPR leagues the last few years and has always been pretty cheap. He had a nice start to 2011, but once he got hurt he only had a few more decent games. 2008-2010 he was a solid WR2 on average in PPR leagues. If he drops far, I would pick him up as I could easily see him as the #1 WR in Washington. Assuming he plays all 16 games and we find out he is the #1 WR in pre-season, he will be a WR2 and probably a fantastic value as I am sure he will be undervalued based on his bad/injury plagued 2011.

 

[BWill]

Look for Santana Moss to potentially have a Steve Smith-type turnaround this year.

The similarities are almost Eerie

Height/Weight: Smith 5'9, 185; Moss 5'10, 189 check

Crappy QBs previous year: Smith - Clausen; Moss - mix of Grossman and Beck check

Experience/Age: Smith - 32/11th season; Moss - 33/12th season check

Prior Success: Smith - 103/1563/12 in 2005; Moss - 84/1483/9 in 2005 check

If RG3 can throw the deep ball like we think he can and Moss can still get over the coverage like he used to be able to, then we could have a repeat of last season. Their career numbers are almost identical: 699/10276/59 for Smith, 639/9142/56 for Moss.

I think if anyone can breakout, it will be this guy. From rumors that he was in danger of being cut to the most recent report that he will serve as the #1 WR for the team, he could VASTLY outperform his ADP, and be the Steve Smith of 2012.

How about Hankerson? He may be a deep threat. Any projections

I'd think 800-900 and 8

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I'll give you a dark horse: Minnesota

1) Greg Cosell seems to be bullish on Christian Ponder. I myself thought he flashed but suffered some common rookie ailments/flaws. Could be a surprise 'emerge' candidate.

2) Even with a miraculous recovery, Toby Gearhart showed himself to be a solid complimentary RB. So the run game could be very good.

3) The multi-dimensionality of Percy Harvin. As versatile a weapon that exists in the NFL.

4). A sneaking suspicion that Kyle Rudolph is a big time TE in waiting. Couple that with the underrated acquisition of Jerome Simpson and the Vikes may not be too devoid of offensive weaponry.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

well, cam just rewrote the record book, so looking for a carolina every year might not pan out.

I would have to strongly disagree with the guy who said cle is an obvious candidate, but there were a lot of leagues that overlooked cam, I suppose.

it's kind of funny because our commish took steve smith and dwill for the cam effect, I assume, but didn't take cam.

I'd disagree on minny being a 2011 carolina, and agree that cincy probably doesn't drastically outperform 2011.

I think washington is probably best bet for a carolina spike, but many are factoring in the cam effect for their players already.

santana moss, as mentioned, might be a guy who's overlooked, and you might get a better rb out of wash than you did carolina, if you can figure which one.

edit: I doubt fisher 'transforms' the rams a la 2011 carolina, but steve jackson might do better than recent history, although it seems his stock is still pretty strong.

maybe kendricks has better value than zero.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Are you concerned by the signing of Mike Tolbert as a 3rd down back cutting into Stewart's receptions?

Good question. I don't see Tolbert touching the ball a lot.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

tolbert is supposedly just a fullback

 

[Catbird]

Look for Santana Moss to potentially have a Steve Smith-type turnaround this year.

The similarities are almost Eerie

Height/Weight: Smith 5'9, 185; Moss 5'10, 189 check

Crappy QBs previous year: Smith - Clausen; Moss - mix of Grossman and Beck check

Experience/Age: Smith - 32/11th season; Moss - 33/12th season check

Prior Success: Smith - 103/1563/12 in 2005; Moss - 84/1483/9 in 2005 check

If RG3 can throw the deep ball like we think he can and Moss can still get over the coverage like he used to be able to, then we could have a repeat of last season. Their career numbers are almost identical: 699/10276/59 for Smith, 639/9142/56 for Moss.

I think if anyone can breakout, it will be this guy. From rumors that he was in danger of being cut to the most recent report that he will serve as the #1 WR for the team, he could VASTLY outperform his ADP, and be the Steve Smith of 2012.

The big problem with this, for me, is that before his down year, Smyff was Smyff. Before last year Santana was Santana. Despite physical stature, those are not very similar starting points. Smyff was regularly a WR1, Moss never was and you could count on about a WR2-3 with upside in streaks. So I agree with the reasoning, but see Hankerson as a real challenge for targets that LaFell wasn't as a rookie - maybe a fairly even split or at best 60-40 Moss and Santana having been a decent talent when in his prime, not a star. Decent talents don't usually have the staying power of stars either (although there are always the Keenan McCardells of the league, who rise to new heights at the tail end of solid but unspectacular careers - and go out almost like fireworks).On CAR, I like the excellent point made on how easy the defenses were last year and how that will make a repeat for Cam difficult. I too think he will be a better player, but I think the defenseive plans that slowed Newton down in the last 5-6 games will have more time to prepare and that will cancel out the development in terms of production. I also see DWill being lees of a factor, not more, as age begins to sap his talent. I think Stewart will take on a bigger role in rushing, receiving and at the goalline, although he still won't be a RB 1. I see Tolbert as a FB and occassional change of pace guy - and probably not a big factor. So i project around 85-90% of last year for Cam, Smyff and DWill, maybe a 15% increase in numbers for Stewart and LaFell, with Tolbert and Olsen the wildcards - their roles to evolve as circumstances and opportunity conspire.

 

[Black&Gold]

tolbert is supposedly just a fullback

If you believe that.....Tolbert will be more than "just a FB". He can play. They aren't going to let a guy that can handle punishment like that and can catch the ball out of the backfield be "just a FB". I see Tolbert as being the guy to wear down defences. I don't think Williams or Stewart can handle the pounding that Tobert can take. He wears down the Ds in the 1st half and then let Cam, Williams, and Stewart explode in the 2nd.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

I think some folks are missing what Cooley's Angels is asking for. I think he's trying to determine who this year's version of the Panthers will be, not who to own on the Panthers.That said, I have no idea.

Thanks, jb. I love and appreciate all the 2012 Carolina offense analysis, but in my eagerness to show my work I think my example overwhelmed my question.What I want to know *more generally* is what factors do you give more weight to when trying to figure out when a bad offense is going to get good: skill position talent, coaching, schedule, etc.?

 

[Tanner9919]

Look for Santana Moss to potentially have a Steve Smith-type turnaround this year.

The similarities are almost Eerie

Height/Weight: Smith 5'9, 185; Moss 5'10, 189 check

Crappy QBs previous year: Smith - Clausen; Moss - mix of Grossman and Beck check

Experience/Age: Smith - 32/11th season; Moss - 33/12th season check

Prior Success: Smith - 103/1563/12 in 2005; Moss - 84/1483/9 in 2005 check

If RG3 can throw the deep ball like we think he can and Moss can still get over the coverage like he used to be able to, then we could have a repeat of last season. Their career numbers are almost identical: 699/10276/59 for Smith, 639/9142/56 for Moss.

I think if anyone can breakout, it will be this guy. From rumors that he was in danger of being cut to the most recent report that he will serve as the #1 WR for the team, he could VASTLY outperform his ADP, and be the Steve Smith of 2012.

no way it happens..

we keep saying that about Moss, and he keeps missing the mark.only twice since 2005 has Moss gone over 1000 yards receiving.

for three years in a row now, he's averaging less than 13 yards/rec..that's a trend..

scored more than 7 tds in a single season just twice in his career.

started out somewhat hot last year, but caught 5 passes in only 1 game since 4...

caught 4 passes in two other games,the rest of 2011 was nothing but 2/3 catches/gm. he's obviously on the downswing.

longest reception last year(49 yards) was third lowest of his career.

Conversely, Gaffney's avg'd 13.93 ypc last season, the second highest of his career, and nearly two yards better than Moss.

Moss is clearly past his prime..even a bounce-back season similar to 2010 ,when he caught 93/1115/6, isn't enough to warrant a second look..that year, he avg'd just 12.0 ypc, the lowest of his career..

I thought highly of Moss last August...won't make that mistake again.Its the Pierre Garcon show in Washington, or dare I say, Fred Davis' Show..

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Look for Santana Moss to potentially have a Steve Smith-type turnaround this year.

The similarities are almost Eerie

Height/Weight: Smith 5'9, 185; Moss 5'10, 189 check

Crappy QBs previous year: Smith - Clausen; Moss - mix of Grossman and Beck check

Experience/Age: Smith - 32/11th season; Moss - 33/12th season check

Prior Success: Smith - 103/1563/12 in 2005; Moss - 84/1483/9 in 2005 check

If RG3 can throw the deep ball like we think he can and Moss can still get over the coverage like he used to be able to, then we could have a repeat of last season. Their career numbers are almost identical: 699/10276/59 for Smith, 639/9142/56 for Moss.

I think if anyone can breakout, it will be this guy. From rumors that he was in danger of being cut to the most recent report that he will serve as the #1 WR for the team, he could VASTLY outperform his ADP, and be the Steve Smith of 2012.

Wow...it's that easy? Those 4 things together make an awesome WR? Man...all that time wasted by thousands of people watching thousands of hours of video on thousands of players.

All he was doing was drawing a paralell to make a point - which is a valid one. A veteran that appears to be finished may not be - an upgrade at QB can do wonders for a WR. Moss caught 93 balls in 2010 - was 2011 a sign of things to come or a blip on the radar due to poor QB play? We'll find out, but it's an interesting comparison.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Interesting thread Cooley. You gotta believe that as good as Cam looked last year that with an entire off season that he should be if not as good perhaps even a little better. When i say better, I mean better at dissecting defenses, better at quick reads, better at figuring out where the blitz is coming from, not so much in terms of yards and TDs. So if you figure he was a big part of the turnaround then you would want to carry that over to this year. Same with his OC Chud, new HC Rivera, all that returns. I feel they will be lethal in the running game as teams are going to have to respect the pass. Steve Smith and Cam Newton flashed some serious "it" factor last year between the 2 of them. Brandon LaFell had a 17 ypc avg and with Naanee gone he has been slated as the WR2. Those are not my words and conjecture, that is what Rivera and entire coaching staff have said. I will entertain Gettis/LaFell talk in 2013, but for 2012 I am 80% sure that LaFell is going to have a field day lined up opposite Steve Smith. Olsen at TE is no slouch either. You add in the RBs and Carolina has a lot of skill position players that can hurt you. Their OL is not bad either so that always helps. Cam Newton-Drafted a little high for my tasteSteve Smith-Top10 candidate for meBrandon LaFell-Should outperform his draft slotGreg Olsen-Makes a nice TE2 or low end TE1DWill-Better than last yearJStew-As good as last year

Are you concerned by the signing of Mike Tolbert as a 3rd down back cutting into Stewart's receptions?

Was Tolbert signed as a third down back? All indications were that he was signed as a FB and perhaps insurance for Stewart leaving next season.

 

[gandalas]

no way it happens..

we keep saying that about Moss, and he keeps missing the mark.only twice since 2005 has Moss gone over 1000 yards receiving.

for three years in a row now, he's averaging less than 13 yards/rec..that's a trend..

scored more than 7 tds in a single season just twice in his career.

started out somewhat hot last year, but caught 5 passes in only 1 game since 4...

caught 4 passes in two other games,the rest of 2011 was nothing but 2/3 catches/gm. he's obviously on the downswing.

longest reception last year(49 yards) was third lowest of his career.

Conversely, Gaffney's avg'd 13.93 ypc last season, the second highest of his career, and nearly two yards better than Moss.

Moss is clearly past his prime..even a bounce-back season similar to 2010 ,when he caught 93/1115/6, isn't enough to warrant a second look..that year, he avg'd just 12.0 ypc, the lowest of his career..

I thought highly of Moss last August...won't make that mistake again.Its the Pierre Garcon show in Washington, or dare I say, Fred Davis' Show..

I don't look for him to have a WR1 type season again, but another year like 2010 is definitely possible. He is being ignored in drafts at the moment - 9th or 10th rounds on average, and TOTALLY lost in dynasty start-ups. I will happily take a shot at him in the 31st round of a dynasty startup, like he was in my last one I was in.Just a comparison that I found interesting. Their careers are very similar in many regards. Drafted in the same year, roughly the same size and type of WR, Best season in 2005 for both, and rookie QBs who are more regarded as scramblers, but have a nice deep ball.

While I do definitely think that Moss has a LOT more competition for targets than Smith did last year, the fact that his coaches are ready to name him the starter over all the new pieces says a lot to me.

 

[meanjoegreen]

Was Tolbert signed as a third down back? All indications were that he was signed as a FB and perhaps insurance for Stewart leaving next season.

He was signed as the fulltime FB and a special teams player, as well as some special plays sprinkled in here and there. They also like him as insurance incase they can't resign Stewart. Stewart said just last week that he wants to stay at Carolina and I think they will be able to resign him.

 

[MAC_32]

It's Washington. The problem with most of the other young offenses are they are too young. There's enough veterans on the Skins to make it work - coaching and on the field. I'm a little concerned about the line, but with RG3's mobility it can be neutralized. They have enough continuity (Fred Davis, Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, the entire RB corps) to mix with the new blood (RG3, Garcon, and to a lesser degree Morgan) to take a misfit offense into a top 10 one. I think RG3's a better QB than Cam, Garcon was just coming into his own when he lost Peyton, Morgan's always flashed, and the entire offense suffered through awful QB play. I'm buying Garcon and RG3 most, but if I don't get Garcon I'm looking at Moss shortly thereafter. I think this offense is going to be more vertical to cater to RG3's strengths and those beneficiaries will be Garcon and Moss. I also think the RB here is Hightower, not Helu, and am looking him up late as a lotto ticket.

I also see a good argument for Tennessee as I see a similar mix there, but I have a lot more doubts about Locker. I like the value in Washington and Wright late if they're still there and I have room for another WR and am looking up Chris Johnson in the mid 1st. I don't trust Britt and Cook though, if I could find a Cook believer I'd have sold him in my dyno by now. Unfortunately, he's my best option. Oof.

 

[Grahamburn]

I think some folks are missing what Cooley's Angels is asking for. I think he's trying to determine who this year's version of the Panthers will be, not who to own on the Panthers.That said, I have no idea.

Thanks, jb. I love and appreciate all the 2012 Carolina offense analysis, but in my eagerness to show my work I think my example overwhelmed my question.What I want to know *more generally* is what factors do you give more weight to when trying to figure out when a bad offense is going to get good: skill position talent, coaching, schedule, etc.?

I'm sure it's a combination of all those factors. That being said, put my vote in for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Additions of Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, Dallas Clark, and Doug Martin to the offense. Mike Sullivan comes in as the offensive coordinator. Last place schedule with several potential shootouts.Call me a , but everything you laid out applies to the 2012 Bucs.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Last place schedule

yeah - what's that get you?

 

[Grahamburn]

Last place schedule

yeah - what's that get you?

Carolina twice - 28th in total defenseNew Orleans twice - 24th in total defenseOakland - 29th in total defenseSt. Louis - 22nd in total defenseMinnesota - 21st in total defenseDenver - 20th in total defenseNY Giants - 27th in total defenseThat's 9 games against teams that were 20th or worse in total team defense. I thought we were trying to be productive in here finding a breakout/turnaround offense? Or is that information irrelevant? The rest of the defenses they face were basically middle of the road as well. The Bucs other opponents are:Atlanta twice - 12thDallas - 14thWashington - 13thSan Diego - 16thPhiladelphia - 8thKansas City - 11thSo, that gets us an offense that added a legitimate WR1, arguably the best interior lineman in the NFL, a dynamic player in the backfield, a capable offensive coordinator, and they play a slew of mediocre to bad defenses. The Bucs scream breakout offense. Wasn't that the point of the thread?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Last place schedule

yeah - what's that get you?

Carolina twice - 28th in total defenseNew Orleans twice - 24th in total defense

Oakland - 29th in total defense

St. Louis - 22nd in total defense

Minnesota - 21st in total defense

Denver - 20th in total defense

NY Giants - 27th in total defense

That's 9 games against teams that were 20th or worse in total team defense. I thought we were trying to be productive in here finding a breakout/turnaround offense? Or is that information irrelevant? The rest of the defenses they face were basically middle of the road as well. The Bucs other opponents are:

Atlanta twice - 12th

Dallas - 14th

Washington - 13th

San Diego - 16th

Philadelphia - 8th

Kansas City - 11th

So, that gets us an offense that added a legitimate WR1, arguably the best interior lineman in the NFL, a dynamic player in the backfield, a capable offensive coordinator, and they play a slew of mediocre to bad defenses.

The Bucs scream breakout offense. Wasn't that the point of the thread?

I'm not trying to beat up on you if you don't know how nfl scheduling works, but each team in every division plays the other teams in that division twice.