Goat Herders
Footballguy
Alright, now that the Senior Bowl is over and all but two teams are working feverishly to be better next season, the draft picture is becoming a bit more clear in my mind.
As expected, top-notch talent will be drafted highly regardless of team need. A few players who looked "low" in earlier Mocks are finding there way up the board as other guys fail to meet expectations. Similarly, as much as we hope certain guys might be great, that doesn't always come to pass. For example, what appeared to be close to half a dozen RBs with 1st round potential has turned into 2 or maybe 3 first round RBs.
Anyway, if you didn't see Version 2.0 or Version 1.0 , then click on them and check it out...
I've tried to listen to all the board buzz as well as look at some other Mock's to see what team's might be interested in. Truthfully, unless some trades happen (and they will), I think the top-10 is pretty settled. Regardless, lets see what we can do here...
Of course, all feedback is welcome.
HERD's MOCK DRAFT - Round 1 - Version 3.0
1. Arizona (via San Diego) - Eli Manning - I don't think the Chargers are keeping the pick, and I don't think anybody's drafting up to get Fitz. As a result, I expect Dennis Green to make accomidation to Bidwell and take a solid franchise QB thats going to sell TONS of Cards jerseys.
2. Oakland - Larry Fitzgerald - Norv may want to take....oh wait, Norv doesn't get a vote. Al is going to take Larry Fitzgerald because (a) he loves offense (b) he loves superstars and © he loves offense. With Rice and Brown hanging around, the learning curve for Fitz will be steep and pay huge dividends for years to come.
3. San Diego (via Arizona) - Robert Gallery - this is the guy they want. LT2 can run wild behind him and there's a GREAT chance Losman or Shaub will be there in the 2nd round. Taking a top-notch left-tackle is going to make this team good enough to save Marty's job....for one more year.
4. NY Giants - Ben Rothlisberger - Coughlin would love to take Andrews here, but Rothlisberger's stock is on the rise and Andrews's isn't. If they can't trade down, Big Ben is the pick. However, don't be shocked to see the Packers try and get to this spot to select Taylor ahead of Detroit. That would get Tom an extra pick and a shot at Carrey or Dorsey for the line. For this mock though, they're staying put and getting a top-notch QB.
5. Washington - Kellen Winslow - Well, I had Winslow here when Spurrier was in charge, then changed my mind, and now I'm back on the 'Winslow to Washington' wagon. The pick makes sense as he can block and catch. He's also jsut too darn good to slip any further. The clincher for me was that EVERYTHING I have heard has Gibbs loving Winslow. Good enough for me.
6. Detroit - Sean Taylor - I'm telling you now, somebody is going to try and trade with the Giants so they can get Taylor. My $$$ says Green Bay, but until it becomes a bit clearer, look for the most explosive defensive player in years to be dressed in Silver and Blue.
7. Atlanta - Shaun Andrews - Atlanta gets the guy to protect Vick's backside for year's to come. Mora would love a defensive guy, and either Harris or Udeze would hardly be a surprise, but I think they realize they aren't going to beat Macon Central High School if Vick is hobbling around on the sidelines.
8. Cleveland - Tommy Harris - Harris is supposed to go higher, but I don't know who is going to take him. The best thing that can be said about Harris is that his motor never stops and he can tie up more then a couple O-linemen. Thats going to help Cleveland immediately. With a little added job-security this week, Davis can select a guy that makes them a bit better on the long run instead of having to select a hit-or-miss QB or WR.
9. Jacksonville - Roy Williams - If Williams is there at 9, the Jags are taking him. Leftwich gets a target, Smith gets an apprentice for the time being, and Fred gets a guy that can keep the D honest from day 1. The Jags are going to be SCARY good as early as 2005.
10. Houston - Vince Wilfork - Their Run D stinks. They can't rush the passer. Thus, they aren't going to win a whole lot of games anytime soon. Wilfork, however, helps a glaring need immediately. He'll be able to tie up O-linemen for days in the 3-4 which makes everybody else's job - Capers included - easier.
11. Pittsburgh - Chris Gamble - I hate Ohio State. Can't stand them. But I'm no fool. The Steelers need O-line, D-back, and RB help NOW. There are no O-linemen worthy here and I have a hunch that Cowher and company are hoping Greg Jones and his "bad attitude" drops to their spot in the second. Gamble is a difference maker and should make their atrocious defensive backfield better pretty quickly.
12. NY Jets - Kenechi Udeze - The way I hear it, the current defense, line included, isn't exactly dominating anyone despite having some talent. Udeze helps with the pass-rush and stopping the run; 2 things the Jets need some help with. They would have loved Roy Williams here, and Reggie doesn't quite grade out to be worth the selection, not with Rashaun Woods, Lee Evans, and/or Michael Jenkins lurking in round 2. Similarly, Udeze might not be the most pressing need based on position, but he's too good to pass up here.
13. Buffalo - Will Smith - From Version 2.0 "As much as they are tempted by Ben Troupe, DE is a big need and 13 is a tad high for a TE. In the AFC East, you've got to have defense in December or you're not going anywhere. Smith helps fill a big hole." Yep, my thought exactly. (Oh wait, they were my thoughts....)
14. Chicago - Randy Starks - Starks is a solid choice here for the Bears. They actually aren't in terrible shape on the other side of the ball and Lovie's new "attacking" D needs a linemen with some power and needs to get Urlacher back in the mix. Starks should be able to help on both counts.
15. Tampa Bay - Kevin Jones - Tough choice here. Thomas Jones ran well at the end of the year, but he's still not signed. Charles Lee, Joe J., and McCardell can hold down the fort at WR. I'm saying that Gruden gets Kevin Jones and with Alstott leading the way, Tampa's NEW KJ runs wild all over the NFC South. Thomas Jones stays on as a backup/carry-hawk until K. Jones's receiving skills take flight. After that, look out...
16. San Fransisco - Reggie Williams - Brandon Lloyd and Reggie will make Bay Area fans show TO the door quickly. Williams has good size and good enough hands that spreading the field is still an option.
17. Cincinatti - Derrick Strait - Strait can be a leader and a playmaker for the Bengals D, which is something that takes an 8-8 team to 11-5 pretty quickly. Strait is Marvin's type of guy; a hard worker who comes to win. Good pick for the kitties. (By the way, shouldn't there be a league by-law that says the Bengals HAVE to be in the top-5 every year? What's going on here...?)
18. New Orleans - Jonathon Vilma - Would have loved Gamble or Strait here, and Deangelo Hall isn't worth a slot this high. So, they take a slightly undersized LB with the ability to control the entire middle of the field. Vilma should help the NO defense (finally) get headed in the right direction.
19. Minnesota - David Pollack - Pollack's slip is the Vikings gain. He should provide a quality option at DE to help contain other teams and subsequently help Tice contain his job with a trip to the playoffs.
20. Miami - Phillip Rivers - Marino loves him. I've heard all kinds of rumors about O-linemen getting courted in Free-agency, which means that Dan and Co. are ready to Run Ricky Run with veterans right now, and groom Rivers totoss it further on down the road. His Senior Bowl performance closed the deal. If not for that terrible delivery, we might have 3 QBs in the top-5.
21. New England - Vernon Carrey - This notion that the PAts are going RB may be flawed. Clearly, the team wins with defense, special teams, and keeping Tommy B off the deck. Carrey can help fortify a front-line that can make a RB as bad as Antowain Smith a decent runner, but more importantly, protect Brady, who's going to be getting big $$$ soon enough.
22. Dallas - Stephen Jackson - Dallas MIGHT take a guy like Dansby or Williams here. In fact, as soon as Duce Staley signs with them, this pick goes out the window. But until I see a new name added to the roster with "RB" next to it, I have the Cowboys taking a runner, and Jackson is clearly the choice. Think of him as Troy Hambrick with speed, power, hands, and moves.
23. Seattle - Karlos Dansby - Seattle needs Defensive depth, and Dansby can provide it. It may be a year or two until he's an every down defender as he's prone to not being great against the run, but he'll learn and be a valuable piece of this team for years to come.
24. Denver - Ben Troupe - Fine. I submit. They'll take a replacement for Sharpe. Troupe has plenty of talent, and I understand the logic here in Shanny's offense. But this team needs a corner and might want to improve their Run D sometime. I'm not saying Troupe isn't awfully good; he is. I just think that passing on Williams, Hall, and Poole is a mistake. Oh well...
25. Green Bay - DJ Williams - If they can't get their hands on Taylor, they'll get his college teammate. This may not be the most pressing positional need, but Williams is by far the best defensive talent left. Finding a spot for him shouldn't be too hard.
26. St. Louis - DeAngelo Hall - I'm not sold on this pick, but with Mrs. Angie Harmon looking terrible and the rest of the defensive backfield being pretty "ho hum", they're going to take a guy with some shut-down ability. Hall will find playing time pretty quickly in St. Louis.
27. Tennessee - Nat Dorsey - Dorsey is a nice talent at a position that fills a need. How quickly he gets playing time depends on how quickly the Titans cut-down their O-line. But with Miller probably getting restructured and Hopkins probably being shown the door, Dorsey is an easy pick for the Titans.
28. Kansas City - Darnell Dockett - A bit of a shock, I know. But Dockett helped himself a lot at the Senior Bowl. I think that his progress continues through the combine and he finds himself a spot at the end of the first. KC clearly needs to draft defense here and Vermiel and Co. want a guy who will work hard to get better. Darnell is their guy. (Tubbs could go here too).
29. Philadelphia - Will Poole - I don't think the Eagles can keep both of their corners. Correct me if I'm off on that, but if Vincent and/or Taylor leave, they're going to need a fast replacement if they want a 4 chance to lose the NFC title game. Poole is the best available at this point.
30. Indianapolis - Marcus Tubbs - How about a pass rush guys? Or maybe some tackling? Jeez. Defense is clearly the need and they could go a dozen different ways here. Mostly, they could stand to draft somebody who looks like they want to do more then waive their hands in front of the other team's QB....
31. Carolina - Nathan Vasher - Vasher can take the kick return burden off of Steve Smith and serve as a spot Defensive back early on. The Panthers need depth on D and Special Teams to make sure they continue their winning ways.
32. New England - Chris Perry - Man, I waffled a bit here. I think they'd rather have Carrey and Perry then Stephen Jackson and somebody else. So, I think they go O-line first and Perry 2nd. He's got decent speed, decent hands, and decent moves, reminds me of Duce Staley. But, in conjunction with Faulk, he can carry a load and make the team's need for Antowain Smith and Mike Cloud disappear. Anybody else guessing Perry to the Pats? Didn't think so...but I needed to toss in one surprise.
So....what say you?
HERD
As expected, top-notch talent will be drafted highly regardless of team need. A few players who looked "low" in earlier Mocks are finding there way up the board as other guys fail to meet expectations. Similarly, as much as we hope certain guys might be great, that doesn't always come to pass. For example, what appeared to be close to half a dozen RBs with 1st round potential has turned into 2 or maybe 3 first round RBs.
Anyway, if you didn't see Version 2.0 or Version 1.0 , then click on them and check it out...
I've tried to listen to all the board buzz as well as look at some other Mock's to see what team's might be interested in. Truthfully, unless some trades happen (and they will), I think the top-10 is pretty settled. Regardless, lets see what we can do here...
Of course, all feedback is welcome.
HERD's MOCK DRAFT - Round 1 - Version 3.0
1. Arizona (via San Diego) - Eli Manning - I don't think the Chargers are keeping the pick, and I don't think anybody's drafting up to get Fitz. As a result, I expect Dennis Green to make accomidation to Bidwell and take a solid franchise QB thats going to sell TONS of Cards jerseys.
2. Oakland - Larry Fitzgerald - Norv may want to take....oh wait, Norv doesn't get a vote. Al is going to take Larry Fitzgerald because (a) he loves offense (b) he loves superstars and © he loves offense. With Rice and Brown hanging around, the learning curve for Fitz will be steep and pay huge dividends for years to come.
3. San Diego (via Arizona) - Robert Gallery - this is the guy they want. LT2 can run wild behind him and there's a GREAT chance Losman or Shaub will be there in the 2nd round. Taking a top-notch left-tackle is going to make this team good enough to save Marty's job....for one more year.
4. NY Giants - Ben Rothlisberger - Coughlin would love to take Andrews here, but Rothlisberger's stock is on the rise and Andrews's isn't. If they can't trade down, Big Ben is the pick. However, don't be shocked to see the Packers try and get to this spot to select Taylor ahead of Detroit. That would get Tom an extra pick and a shot at Carrey or Dorsey for the line. For this mock though, they're staying put and getting a top-notch QB.
5. Washington - Kellen Winslow - Well, I had Winslow here when Spurrier was in charge, then changed my mind, and now I'm back on the 'Winslow to Washington' wagon. The pick makes sense as he can block and catch. He's also jsut too darn good to slip any further. The clincher for me was that EVERYTHING I have heard has Gibbs loving Winslow. Good enough for me.
6. Detroit - Sean Taylor - I'm telling you now, somebody is going to try and trade with the Giants so they can get Taylor. My $$$ says Green Bay, but until it becomes a bit clearer, look for the most explosive defensive player in years to be dressed in Silver and Blue.
7. Atlanta - Shaun Andrews - Atlanta gets the guy to protect Vick's backside for year's to come. Mora would love a defensive guy, and either Harris or Udeze would hardly be a surprise, but I think they realize they aren't going to beat Macon Central High School if Vick is hobbling around on the sidelines.
8. Cleveland - Tommy Harris - Harris is supposed to go higher, but I don't know who is going to take him. The best thing that can be said about Harris is that his motor never stops and he can tie up more then a couple O-linemen. Thats going to help Cleveland immediately. With a little added job-security this week, Davis can select a guy that makes them a bit better on the long run instead of having to select a hit-or-miss QB or WR.
9. Jacksonville - Roy Williams - If Williams is there at 9, the Jags are taking him. Leftwich gets a target, Smith gets an apprentice for the time being, and Fred gets a guy that can keep the D honest from day 1. The Jags are going to be SCARY good as early as 2005.
10. Houston - Vince Wilfork - Their Run D stinks. They can't rush the passer. Thus, they aren't going to win a whole lot of games anytime soon. Wilfork, however, helps a glaring need immediately. He'll be able to tie up O-linemen for days in the 3-4 which makes everybody else's job - Capers included - easier.
11. Pittsburgh - Chris Gamble - I hate Ohio State. Can't stand them. But I'm no fool. The Steelers need O-line, D-back, and RB help NOW. There are no O-linemen worthy here and I have a hunch that Cowher and company are hoping Greg Jones and his "bad attitude" drops to their spot in the second. Gamble is a difference maker and should make their atrocious defensive backfield better pretty quickly.
12. NY Jets - Kenechi Udeze - The way I hear it, the current defense, line included, isn't exactly dominating anyone despite having some talent. Udeze helps with the pass-rush and stopping the run; 2 things the Jets need some help with. They would have loved Roy Williams here, and Reggie doesn't quite grade out to be worth the selection, not with Rashaun Woods, Lee Evans, and/or Michael Jenkins lurking in round 2. Similarly, Udeze might not be the most pressing need based on position, but he's too good to pass up here.
13. Buffalo - Will Smith - From Version 2.0 "As much as they are tempted by Ben Troupe, DE is a big need and 13 is a tad high for a TE. In the AFC East, you've got to have defense in December or you're not going anywhere. Smith helps fill a big hole." Yep, my thought exactly. (Oh wait, they were my thoughts....)
14. Chicago - Randy Starks - Starks is a solid choice here for the Bears. They actually aren't in terrible shape on the other side of the ball and Lovie's new "attacking" D needs a linemen with some power and needs to get Urlacher back in the mix. Starks should be able to help on both counts.
15. Tampa Bay - Kevin Jones - Tough choice here. Thomas Jones ran well at the end of the year, but he's still not signed. Charles Lee, Joe J., and McCardell can hold down the fort at WR. I'm saying that Gruden gets Kevin Jones and with Alstott leading the way, Tampa's NEW KJ runs wild all over the NFC South. Thomas Jones stays on as a backup/carry-hawk until K. Jones's receiving skills take flight. After that, look out...
16. San Fransisco - Reggie Williams - Brandon Lloyd and Reggie will make Bay Area fans show TO the door quickly. Williams has good size and good enough hands that spreading the field is still an option.
17. Cincinatti - Derrick Strait - Strait can be a leader and a playmaker for the Bengals D, which is something that takes an 8-8 team to 11-5 pretty quickly. Strait is Marvin's type of guy; a hard worker who comes to win. Good pick for the kitties. (By the way, shouldn't there be a league by-law that says the Bengals HAVE to be in the top-5 every year? What's going on here...?)
18. New Orleans - Jonathon Vilma - Would have loved Gamble or Strait here, and Deangelo Hall isn't worth a slot this high. So, they take a slightly undersized LB with the ability to control the entire middle of the field. Vilma should help the NO defense (finally) get headed in the right direction.
19. Minnesota - David Pollack - Pollack's slip is the Vikings gain. He should provide a quality option at DE to help contain other teams and subsequently help Tice contain his job with a trip to the playoffs.
20. Miami - Phillip Rivers - Marino loves him. I've heard all kinds of rumors about O-linemen getting courted in Free-agency, which means that Dan and Co. are ready to Run Ricky Run with veterans right now, and groom Rivers totoss it further on down the road. His Senior Bowl performance closed the deal. If not for that terrible delivery, we might have 3 QBs in the top-5.
21. New England - Vernon Carrey - This notion that the PAts are going RB may be flawed. Clearly, the team wins with defense, special teams, and keeping Tommy B off the deck. Carrey can help fortify a front-line that can make a RB as bad as Antowain Smith a decent runner, but more importantly, protect Brady, who's going to be getting big $$$ soon enough.
22. Dallas - Stephen Jackson - Dallas MIGHT take a guy like Dansby or Williams here. In fact, as soon as Duce Staley signs with them, this pick goes out the window. But until I see a new name added to the roster with "RB" next to it, I have the Cowboys taking a runner, and Jackson is clearly the choice. Think of him as Troy Hambrick with speed, power, hands, and moves.
23. Seattle - Karlos Dansby - Seattle needs Defensive depth, and Dansby can provide it. It may be a year or two until he's an every down defender as he's prone to not being great against the run, but he'll learn and be a valuable piece of this team for years to come.
24. Denver - Ben Troupe - Fine. I submit. They'll take a replacement for Sharpe. Troupe has plenty of talent, and I understand the logic here in Shanny's offense. But this team needs a corner and might want to improve their Run D sometime. I'm not saying Troupe isn't awfully good; he is. I just think that passing on Williams, Hall, and Poole is a mistake. Oh well...
25. Green Bay - DJ Williams - If they can't get their hands on Taylor, they'll get his college teammate. This may not be the most pressing positional need, but Williams is by far the best defensive talent left. Finding a spot for him shouldn't be too hard.
26. St. Louis - DeAngelo Hall - I'm not sold on this pick, but with Mrs. Angie Harmon looking terrible and the rest of the defensive backfield being pretty "ho hum", they're going to take a guy with some shut-down ability. Hall will find playing time pretty quickly in St. Louis.
27. Tennessee - Nat Dorsey - Dorsey is a nice talent at a position that fills a need. How quickly he gets playing time depends on how quickly the Titans cut-down their O-line. But with Miller probably getting restructured and Hopkins probably being shown the door, Dorsey is an easy pick for the Titans.
28. Kansas City - Darnell Dockett - A bit of a shock, I know. But Dockett helped himself a lot at the Senior Bowl. I think that his progress continues through the combine and he finds himself a spot at the end of the first. KC clearly needs to draft defense here and Vermiel and Co. want a guy who will work hard to get better. Darnell is their guy. (Tubbs could go here too).
29. Philadelphia - Will Poole - I don't think the Eagles can keep both of their corners. Correct me if I'm off on that, but if Vincent and/or Taylor leave, they're going to need a fast replacement if they want a 4 chance to lose the NFC title game. Poole is the best available at this point.
30. Indianapolis - Marcus Tubbs - How about a pass rush guys? Or maybe some tackling? Jeez. Defense is clearly the need and they could go a dozen different ways here. Mostly, they could stand to draft somebody who looks like they want to do more then waive their hands in front of the other team's QB....
31. Carolina - Nathan Vasher - Vasher can take the kick return burden off of Steve Smith and serve as a spot Defensive back early on. The Panthers need depth on D and Special Teams to make sure they continue their winning ways.
32. New England - Chris Perry - Man, I waffled a bit here. I think they'd rather have Carrey and Perry then Stephen Jackson and somebody else. So, I think they go O-line first and Perry 2nd. He's got decent speed, decent hands, and decent moves, reminds me of Duce Staley. But, in conjunction with Faulk, he can carry a load and make the team's need for Antowain Smith and Mike Cloud disappear. Anybody else guessing Perry to the Pats? Didn't think so...but I needed to toss in one surprise.
So....what say you?
HERD
We shall see how the "arms race" plays out between the two of them.Thanks for your input.HERD
Cheers
That's as indecisive as a woman. Not sure that's trustworthy analysis on ol' Mel's part.
