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HERD Mock NFL Draft - Round 1 (1 Viewer)

Goat Herders

Footballguy
Alright, now that the Senior Bowl is over and all but two teams are working feverishly to be better next season, the draft picture is becoming a bit more clear in my mind.

As expected, top-notch talent will be drafted highly regardless of team need. A few players who looked "low" in earlier Mocks are finding there way up the board as other guys fail to meet expectations. Similarly, as much as we hope certain guys might be great, that doesn't always come to pass. For example, what appeared to be close to half a dozen RBs with 1st round potential has turned into 2 or maybe 3 first round RBs.

Anyway, if you didn't see Version 2.0 or Version 1.0 , then click on them and check it out...

I've tried to listen to all the board buzz as well as look at some other Mock's to see what team's might be interested in. Truthfully, unless some trades happen (and they will), I think the top-10 is pretty settled. Regardless, lets see what we can do here...

Of course, all feedback is welcome.

HERD's MOCK DRAFT - Round 1 - Version 3.0

1. Arizona (via San Diego) - Eli Manning - I don't think the Chargers are keeping the pick, and I don't think anybody's drafting up to get Fitz. As a result, I expect Dennis Green to make accomidation to Bidwell and take a solid franchise QB thats going to sell TONS of Cards jerseys.

2. Oakland - Larry Fitzgerald - Norv may want to take....oh wait, Norv doesn't get a vote. Al is going to take Larry Fitzgerald because (a) he loves offense (b) he loves superstars and © he loves offense. With Rice and Brown hanging around, the learning curve for Fitz will be steep and pay huge dividends for years to come.

3. San Diego (via Arizona) - Robert Gallery - this is the guy they want. LT2 can run wild behind him and there's a GREAT chance Losman or Shaub will be there in the 2nd round. Taking a top-notch left-tackle is going to make this team good enough to save Marty's job....for one more year.

4. NY Giants - Ben Rothlisberger - Coughlin would love to take Andrews here, but Rothlisberger's stock is on the rise and Andrews's isn't. If they can't trade down, Big Ben is the pick. However, don't be shocked to see the Packers try and get to this spot to select Taylor ahead of Detroit. That would get Tom an extra pick and a shot at Carrey or Dorsey for the line. For this mock though, they're staying put and getting a top-notch QB.

5. Washington - Kellen Winslow - Well, I had Winslow here when Spurrier was in charge, then changed my mind, and now I'm back on the 'Winslow to Washington' wagon. The pick makes sense as he can block and catch. He's also jsut too darn good to slip any further. The clincher for me was that EVERYTHING I have heard has Gibbs loving Winslow. Good enough for me.

6. Detroit - Sean Taylor - I'm telling you now, somebody is going to try and trade with the Giants so they can get Taylor. My $$$ says Green Bay, but until it becomes a bit clearer, look for the most explosive defensive player in years to be dressed in Silver and Blue.

7. Atlanta - Shaun Andrews - Atlanta gets the guy to protect Vick's backside for year's to come. Mora would love a defensive guy, and either Harris or Udeze would hardly be a surprise, but I think they realize they aren't going to beat Macon Central High School if Vick is hobbling around on the sidelines.

8. Cleveland - Tommy Harris - Harris is supposed to go higher, but I don't know who is going to take him. The best thing that can be said about Harris is that his motor never stops and he can tie up more then a couple O-linemen. Thats going to help Cleveland immediately. With a little added job-security this week, Davis can select a guy that makes them a bit better on the long run instead of having to select a hit-or-miss QB or WR.

9. Jacksonville - Roy Williams - If Williams is there at 9, the Jags are taking him. Leftwich gets a target, Smith gets an apprentice for the time being, and Fred gets a guy that can keep the D honest from day 1. The Jags are going to be SCARY good as early as 2005.

10. Houston - Vince Wilfork - Their Run D stinks. They can't rush the passer. Thus, they aren't going to win a whole lot of games anytime soon. Wilfork, however, helps a glaring need immediately. He'll be able to tie up O-linemen for days in the 3-4 which makes everybody else's job - Capers included - easier.

11. Pittsburgh - Chris Gamble - I hate Ohio State. Can't stand them. But I'm no fool. The Steelers need O-line, D-back, and RB help NOW. There are no O-linemen worthy here and I have a hunch that Cowher and company are hoping Greg Jones and his "bad attitude" drops to their spot in the second. Gamble is a difference maker and should make their atrocious defensive backfield better pretty quickly.

12. NY Jets - Kenechi Udeze - The way I hear it, the current defense, line included, isn't exactly dominating anyone despite having some talent. Udeze helps with the pass-rush and stopping the run; 2 things the Jets need some help with. They would have loved Roy Williams here, and Reggie doesn't quite grade out to be worth the selection, not with Rashaun Woods, Lee Evans, and/or Michael Jenkins lurking in round 2. Similarly, Udeze might not be the most pressing need based on position, but he's too good to pass up here.

13. Buffalo - Will Smith - From Version 2.0 "As much as they are tempted by Ben Troupe, DE is a big need and 13 is a tad high for a TE. In the AFC East, you've got to have defense in December or you're not going anywhere. Smith helps fill a big hole." Yep, my thought exactly. (Oh wait, they were my thoughts....)

14. Chicago - Randy Starks - Starks is a solid choice here for the Bears. They actually aren't in terrible shape on the other side of the ball and Lovie's new "attacking" D needs a linemen with some power and needs to get Urlacher back in the mix. Starks should be able to help on both counts.

15. Tampa Bay - Kevin Jones - Tough choice here. Thomas Jones ran well at the end of the year, but he's still not signed. Charles Lee, Joe J., and McCardell can hold down the fort at WR. I'm saying that Gruden gets Kevin Jones and with Alstott leading the way, Tampa's NEW KJ runs wild all over the NFC South. Thomas Jones stays on as a backup/carry-hawk until K. Jones's receiving skills take flight. After that, look out...

16. San Fransisco - Reggie Williams - Brandon Lloyd and Reggie will make Bay Area fans show TO the door quickly. Williams has good size and good enough hands that spreading the field is still an option.

17. Cincinatti - Derrick Strait - Strait can be a leader and a playmaker for the Bengals D, which is something that takes an 8-8 team to 11-5 pretty quickly. Strait is Marvin's type of guy; a hard worker who comes to win. Good pick for the kitties. (By the way, shouldn't there be a league by-law that says the Bengals HAVE to be in the top-5 every year? What's going on here...?)

18. New Orleans - Jonathon Vilma - Would have loved Gamble or Strait here, and Deangelo Hall isn't worth a slot this high. So, they take a slightly undersized LB with the ability to control the entire middle of the field. Vilma should help the NO defense (finally) get headed in the right direction.

19. Minnesota - David Pollack - Pollack's slip is the Vikings gain. He should provide a quality option at DE to help contain other teams and subsequently help Tice contain his job with a trip to the playoffs.

20. Miami - Phillip Rivers - Marino loves him. I've heard all kinds of rumors about O-linemen getting courted in Free-agency, which means that Dan and Co. are ready to Run Ricky Run with veterans right now, and groom Rivers totoss it further on down the road. His Senior Bowl performance closed the deal. If not for that terrible delivery, we might have 3 QBs in the top-5.

21. New England - Vernon Carrey - This notion that the PAts are going RB may be flawed. Clearly, the team wins with defense, special teams, and keeping Tommy B off the deck. Carrey can help fortify a front-line that can make a RB as bad as Antowain Smith a decent runner, but more importantly, protect Brady, who's going to be getting big $$$ soon enough.

22. Dallas - Stephen Jackson - Dallas MIGHT take a guy like Dansby or Williams here. In fact, as soon as Duce Staley signs with them, this pick goes out the window. But until I see a new name added to the roster with "RB" next to it, I have the Cowboys taking a runner, and Jackson is clearly the choice. Think of him as Troy Hambrick with speed, power, hands, and moves.

23. Seattle - Karlos Dansby - Seattle needs Defensive depth, and Dansby can provide it. It may be a year or two until he's an every down defender as he's prone to not being great against the run, but he'll learn and be a valuable piece of this team for years to come.

24. Denver - Ben Troupe - Fine. I submit. They'll take a replacement for Sharpe. Troupe has plenty of talent, and I understand the logic here in Shanny's offense. But this team needs a corner and might want to improve their Run D sometime. I'm not saying Troupe isn't awfully good; he is. I just think that passing on Williams, Hall, and Poole is a mistake. Oh well...

25. Green Bay - DJ Williams - If they can't get their hands on Taylor, they'll get his college teammate. This may not be the most pressing positional need, but Williams is by far the best defensive talent left. Finding a spot for him shouldn't be too hard.

26. St. Louis - DeAngelo Hall - I'm not sold on this pick, but with Mrs. Angie Harmon looking terrible and the rest of the defensive backfield being pretty "ho hum", they're going to take a guy with some shut-down ability. Hall will find playing time pretty quickly in St. Louis.

27. Tennessee - Nat Dorsey - Dorsey is a nice talent at a position that fills a need. How quickly he gets playing time depends on how quickly the Titans cut-down their O-line. But with Miller probably getting restructured and Hopkins probably being shown the door, Dorsey is an easy pick for the Titans.

28. Kansas City - Darnell Dockett - A bit of a shock, I know. But Dockett helped himself a lot at the Senior Bowl. I think that his progress continues through the combine and he finds himself a spot at the end of the first. KC clearly needs to draft defense here and Vermiel and Co. want a guy who will work hard to get better. Darnell is their guy. (Tubbs could go here too).

29. Philadelphia - Will Poole - I don't think the Eagles can keep both of their corners. Correct me if I'm off on that, but if Vincent and/or Taylor leave, they're going to need a fast replacement if they want a 4 chance to lose the NFC title game. Poole is the best available at this point.

30. Indianapolis - Marcus Tubbs - How about a pass rush guys? Or maybe some tackling? Jeez. Defense is clearly the need and they could go a dozen different ways here. Mostly, they could stand to draft somebody who looks like they want to do more then waive their hands in front of the other team's QB....

31. Carolina - Nathan Vasher - Vasher can take the kick return burden off of Steve Smith and serve as a spot Defensive back early on. The Panthers need depth on D and Special Teams to make sure they continue their winning ways.

32. New England - Chris Perry - Man, I waffled a bit here. I think they'd rather have Carrey and Perry then Stephen Jackson and somebody else. So, I think they go O-line first and Perry 2nd. He's got decent speed, decent hands, and decent moves, reminds me of Duce Staley. But, in conjunction with Faulk, he can carry a load and make the team's need for Antowain Smith and Mike Cloud disappear. Anybody else guessing Perry to the Pats? Didn't think so...but I needed to toss in one surprise.

So....what say you?

HERD

 

BlueOnion

Footballguy
Goat -Solid, loved in and thank you for putting up with my harrassments.I really like the top-10, but I have a question for you.Say a team is able to trade up with the Giants (You mentioned the Packers) to get Sean Taylor, than who do you suppose drafts Big Ben and where? Picks 5 through 10 appear to have their 'franchise quarterback', so would we see a lot 'phone action' as teams at 5 through 10 shop their picks' around? Or does Big Ben fall to Pittsburgh at #11? I think he falls to #11.The BlueOnion

 

Sammy3469

Footballguy
For the life of me I can't see the Giants going all the way down to 25 without getting a whole heck of a lot from Green Bay. Unless they decide to redo their entire linebacking core, they are going to stay put and draft Gallery or Andrews. The interesting thing is that if GB does move up and get Taylor, where does Rothlisberger drop? Cleveland at 8 or Pitt at 11 seem like the only fits?

 
Good write up. As a Detroit Homer and a Cowboy fan, those are the picks that truly interest me.I really like the Lions getting Sean Taylor. He'd actually be the first defensive player in the draft taken. Put him along with Dre Bly and we finally have a start to something here.Dallas needs a running back. However, I'd like to see them either get Corey Dillon or Deuce Staley. If they do, then I'd like to see Dallas get an O-lineman like a Nat Dorsey.Then in the second round Dallas should go CB. The draft is loaded with quality corners and Dallas still needs to get rid of Mario Edwards as he doesn't know how to cover. Summary for Dallas: Sign a free agent veteran RB, draft 0-line and corner help with late drafts going LB and DE help.Gut feeling is that Dallas will still be with Quincy Carter. From what I see, who's truly better that Dallas can get. Peyton Manning :thumbup:

 

Jason Wood

Zoo York
HERD -- Nice work as usual, and I like what you've got going on. One thing though, why the switch from Udeze being your top guy back to Harris and Wilfork overtaking him? I'm not saying I disagree, but with none of them working out at the Senior Bowl, I'm curious for your reasons for flip flopping them.Cheers

 

BGP

Indians Fever
8. Cleveland - Tommy Harris - Harris is supposed to go higher, but I don't know who is going to take him. The best thing that can be said about Harris is that his motor never stops and he can tie up more then a couple O-linemen. Thats going to help Cleveland immediately. With a little added job-security this week, Davis can select a guy that makes them a bit better on the long run instead of having to select a hit-or-miss QB or WR.
I can't stress this enough. The Browns do not need defense here. They have one of the worst offenses in the NFL. They WILL take an offensive player with this pick. And the LAST thing they will do with that pick is take someone on the defensive line. They have spent $100M on Courtney Brown, Gerard Warren, and Orpheus Roye. I don't care if the prospect grades out all-world - they WON'T take him. In the salary cap era, you just CANNOT spend all your money on one unit like that, no matter how good the guy is.Looking at your mock, I could easily see them taking Roy Williams. They dumped KJ and it makes sense to get a WR to replace him.

 

Goat Herders

Footballguy
The Pollack pick was a brain fart on my behalf. I'll edit it in the next few minutes...

HERD -- Nice work as usual, and I like what you've got going on. One thing though, why the switch from Udeze being your top guy back to Harris and Wilfork overtaking him? I'm not saying I disagree, but with none of them working out at the Senior Bowl, I'm curious for your reasons for flip flopping them.
I keep hearing all over the place that Harris is a hotter commodity then Udeze. Similarly, I think that while Udeze is certainly strong, he doesn't play the run as well as Wilfork and thus Wilfork would be better in the 3-4.More to follow...HERD
 

BlueOnion

Footballguy
I think the Browns point is valid, but I think things will work out for themselves.

I see these player's stock going up before the draft:

Kenechi Udeze - To much talent as is, but really has a lot more potential

Tommie Harris - Similar to Udeze, but maybe a fraction behind (but not a lot)

Chris Gamble - Blue chip prospect, may rise as high as 10.

I see these player's stock dropping:

Roethlisburger

Shaun Andrews

I think Atlanta grabs Udeze or Harris at their pick, which will open the door for Cleveland to take Shaun Andrews.

I also think Eli drops to 3 (and the Bidwells press Denny Green to take Eli though Green may really want Roy Williams), Sean Taylor's presence creates a minnie scramble and the Roethlisberger is available at #6 (Detroit). Consequently no teams from 5 through 10 need a quarterback and Roethlisberger falls to Pittsburgh.

 

Warehouse Nasty

Footballguy
Good job Goat-I'll say it again, Green Bay goes QB in round 1 this year. They either stay put or trade down to get more picks. They'll get a shot at Rivers, Lohsman, or Schaub. They can't keep ignoring these needs. No way do I see them trading up to get Taylor when they already have a stud playmaker in the secondary in Darren Sharper.Oh yeah, and Harris will go high like you say and he'll be the bust of the draft.

 

Iceman03

Footballguy
Where is Michael Clayton?! I know NE's WRs are decent but I'm not sure they could pass on Clayton at the end of round 1.

 

coolbeans59

Footballguy
Herd,Glad you're onboard with my "GB ain't grabbing a QB in the 1st" school of thought.But if Dockett or Hall are on the table, can't see the Pack going with a LB (eventhough Williams would IMMEDIATELY take over for Navies).Pack needs:1) BIG DE - They miss Holliday, and Joe Johnson hasn't done a thing in the Green and Gold. They need a DE to play run downs, to make KGB a 3rd down guy ONLY and make him that much more effective. Rookie Kenny Peterson COULD fill this role.2) CB - Al Harris will be 30 and a F/A at the end of next season. Could let him walk, IF they grab a solid nickel corner here (and they need a good Nickel).3) S - Anderson is nothing to write home about, Sharper has been banged up the last couple seasons and Antuan Edwards can't finish a season if his life depended on it.4) Returner - Something hasn't been the same in GB since Rossum left. Could grab a corner who would double as a returner (Colclough???).5) OLB - Navies is solid and that's about it. (Diggs is the man on the other side).6) DT - Gilbert proved to be a warrior this year, Grady Jackson was one of the biggest steals of the NFL this year, Hunt had a solid year (not worthy of his contract, but solid), Larry Smith proved capable when he got a chance and they've got James Lee (rookie), Kenny Peterson (rookie) and Rod Walker waiting in the wings.

 

BlueOnion

Footballguy
It appears the cut-off is the 18th pick, as far as making an educated guesses. At which I am pretty liberal as far as projections go. That being said, I think the Goat's Mock Draft for picks 1 - 18 are solid and probably fairly close to what will happen.The BlueOnion

 

coolbeans59

Footballguy
Good job Goat-I'll say it again, Green Bay goes QB in round 1 this year.
Nasty ..... wanna bet the Pack does NOT take a QB in the first? they may take one, but it won't be in the first (unless Ben or Eli fall to their pick in the 1st .... and I've got a better chance for a monkey to come out of my butt).Reasons GB PROBABLY won't take a QB in the 1st:1) Defense wins championships. Their Defense needs to get better for them to be more successful. KC, STL, Philly, Det, Ari ..... nearly all their losses were because the defense let them down.2) The last 7 SB starting QB's: Brad Johnson, Rich Gannon, Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Trent Dilfer and Kerry Collins .... only two of them were former first rounders ... and neither went with the team that drafted them.
 
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MrKlaw

Footballguy
Not bad, although I don't think there is any way the Packers move up 20 spots into the top 5. They would have to give up at least a first and second this year and a first next year, and probably more than that.If Tampa passes up Reggie Williams I'll put my foot through my TV.

 

rifkin

Footballguy
5. Washington - Kellen Winslow - Well, I had Winslow here when Spurrier was in charge, then changed my mind, and now I'm back on the 'Winslow to Washington' wagon. The pick makes sense as he can block and catch. He's also jsut too darn good to slip any further. The clincher for me was that EVERYTHING I have heard has Gibbs loving Winslow. Good enough for me.
Thanks for laying this out here and actually putting a lot of thought in it.As for the 'Skins. I'll be very disappointed if they take Winslow even if he ends up being the greatest TE in the history of the NFL. I still don't think they take him. I don't think Gibbs is making personnel decisions for one and I think Cerrato is happy to have him talk up a player he's not going to select as a smokescreen. I still think DL and possibly if Taylor is that great of a Safety then it wouldn't shock me to see them grab him, though it would probably shock most everyone else.

 

aaronr28

Moderator
Pollack went back to UGA, so I doubt he'll go at 19.
I was going to point this out as well.HERD, you need to drop Pollack from your list. He did not declare for the draft and will play his senior season at UGA.
 

Lefty27

Footballguy
22. Dallas - Stephen Jackson - Dallas MIGHT take a guy like Dansby or Williams here. In fact, as soon as Duce Staley signs with them, this pick goes out the window. But until I see a new name added to the roster with "RB" next to it, I have the Cowboys taking a runner, and Jackson is clearly the choice. Think of him as Troy Hambrick with speed, power, hands, and moves.
HERD--great read :thumbup: I enjoyed your interjections of humor---your Hambrick comment was the best :rotflmao:

You identified Green Bay as a possibility to move up in the draft (and Arizona moving up to #1). Who else is looking to move up?

 

Goat Herders

Footballguy
Where is Michael Clayton?! I know NE's WRs are decent but I'm not sure they could pass on Clayton at the end of round 1.
The pick at the end where I put Perry? Clayton was the other choice. However, with Bethel Johnson's role expanding and Givens, Branch, and Brown playing reasonably well, I don't think that Pats will add a WR in the first round when they have to find a new RB or pay Antowain Smith more then he's worth. Thus, I chose PErry.HERD
 

The FPI

Footballguy
Good job Goat-I'll say it again, Green Bay goes QB in round 1 this year. They either stay put or trade down to get more picks. They'll get a shot at Rivers, Lohsman, or Schaub. They can't keep ignoring these needs. No way do I see them trading up to get Taylor when they already have a stud playmaker in the secondary in Darren Sharper.Oh yeah, and Harris will go high like you say and he'll be the bust of the draft.
Why add a QB in round 1 when they are a SB caliber team? Favre looks to stay another 2-3 years. They'll be much better served by adding a defensive playmaker, whether it be at DT or LB.
Exactly. Last year everyone said "they MUST go QB in round 1." Instead, they got the stud LB they've been searching for, a position of DESPERATE need.This year, there is a giant hole in the defensive backfield. Yes, Sharper is still a stud (although in my mind borderline as I feel he has slipped a bit), but last time I checked, it's a good thing to have more than one stud in your defensive backfield at the safety position. Marques Anderson and Antuan Edwards make me wish LeRoy Butler didn't have a ruined shoulder.As much as I dislike Pat Kirwan, I like this article: Do You Really Want A First-Round QB? Build the defense Sherman. :thumbup: LB, CB, S, DL, whatever. Just get some playmakers. :football:
 

tommyGunZ

Footballguy
15. Tampa Bay - Kevin Jones - Tough choice here. Thomas Jones ran well at the end of the year, but he's still not signed. Charles Lee, Joe J., and McCardell can hold down the fort at WR. I'm saying that Gruden gets Kevin Jones and with Alstott leading the way, Tampa's NEW KJ runs wild all over the NFC South. Thomas Jones stays on as a backup/carry-hawk until K. Jones's receiving skills take flight. After that, look out...
SO f'n D.I don't doubt KJ will fall this far, but he will make Det, Pitt, Wash, and Da Bears look like clowns for passing on him if he indeed falls to the Bucs.If his combine times are impressive, KJ goes to Wash or Det, IMO. Though I agree that Winslow seems like a lock to head to DC.
 

falconeyed

Footballguy
I'm going to disagree with the first pick, premised on the fact that the Chargers trade down. As of now, I'm not convinced that they're convinced that Brees can get the job done. While Brees doesn't have to win the entire game, what he does have to do is manage the offense and make it at least look like the Chargers are a threat to throw the football. At this point, from the games I've seen him play, he has done neither. Everything I'm reading about Eli is that he's likely to make his brother look like Tim Hasselbeck. While this may be over the top, I can't see the Chargers passing on a franchise quarterback. The situation seems ripe for Manning. He can learn the offense, has the skills to keep the passing game existent while he matures. The Chargers will still have to lean on LT2, but then again ... you should be able to lean on a player of LT2's quality.Also, I'm suspicious of the Bidwells' sudden epiphany to start spending money. It seems like Arizona is constantly in financial straits, with both empty seats and empty expectations. Manning might thrive there as well, but not as much as in San Diego, because Arizona would seem to have solid targets in Boldin and Freddie Jones, whom I think would be better in the long run for Manning than the likes of David Boston. However, I like the thought of leaning on a proven RB more than a young RB and TE, who have to have a decent QB to be viable.Whomever they get, Manning or Gallery, the Chargers' offense will be the better for it.Edit for knocking down my own argument regarding Arizona's WR / TE corps.

 
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BlueOnion

Footballguy
As much as I dislike Pat Kirwan, I like this article: Do You Really Want A First-Round QB?
I echoed these same concerns about a week or two ago and I had a few critics. (You could do a search on NFL draft and quarterbacks). But Kirwin left out one critical aspect in his article; and that is the business side of football. Obviously the Packers would not 'better' themselves financially by drafting a quarterback in the first round, but other franchises could.If you look at Oakland, San Diego and Arizona specifically, there are a lot of non-football related 'pluses' for them to draft a quarterback.1) PR wise, it would be a good move for all three franchises, picking a quarterback could cause a spike in season ticket sales, jersey sales and all around 'optimism' for the average fan (not the die hard fan who may have preferred a linemen of some sort).2) For Arizona and their bad PR relating to the tax-payers and their new stadium to be, Eli Manning would certainly fix some of the bad PR.3) Oakland, for all the 'mess' and 'haze' around the franchise, Eli's presence would be a huge PR plus.And so on and so on.The BlueOnion
 

smlevin

Footballguy
It seems a foregone conclusion the phins take Rivers if he is there - as you pointed out, except for his delivery, he could be top-10. Isn't there a decent chance a team like Pitt or Cleveland reaches for a QB?If Rivers is available, 'phins take him - if he isn't they take the biggest mountain of a defensive tackle pushing guard that they can find, or they snag the best graded DT or WR available if they have addressed OL in FA.I will say it again - the phins will pursue Brunell hard to make every single QB on their roster expendable - Marino likes none of them, though he doesn't say anything bad about Fiedler, and I don't think Spielman likes any of the current QBs either.I would not be surprised to see Brunell, Fiedler and Rivers hit 2005 training camp in open competition.HERD - excellent job. I think Perry near the bottom of the first is accurate - but, I think someone may snag Jones before TB has to decide on him.

 
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mervis

Footballguy
Goat -Solid, loved in and thank you for putting up with my harrassments.I really like the top-10, but I have a question for you.Say a team is able to trade up with the Giants (You mentioned the Packers) to get Sean Taylor, than who do you suppose drafts Big Ben and where? Picks 5 through 10 appear to have their 'franchise quarterback', so would we see a lot 'phone action' as teams at 5 through 10 shop their picks' around? Or does Big Ben fall to Pittsburgh at #11? I think he falls to #11.The BlueOnion
I'm not sure that Pitt would take Big Ben (hear me out) at 11. Last year they structured the team, so as to make a run at the Super Bowl for 2-3 years. I think that Pitt needs to stay the course. They are only a couple of players away from serious contention. Lets not forget how far they got 2 years ago. They need a difference maker at the DB position and they need a solid RB. The offensive mentallity of throw the ball did not work last year. However, if they balance out the attack and go back to a run first offense then Maddox and Batch can get the job done. If Ben was to fall to them at 11, I would expect a trade. An extra pick could be a difference maker on the field next year. Where as Ben is not going to lead them into the playoffs anytime soon. You put a top rookie RB behind a healthy line (2nd or 3rd rnd) and watch out. Remember two years ago many "experts" felt that Pitt had the best line in football. Hopefully the Steelers have learned from the mistakes of last year. They need to get back to running the ball and sure up the glarring problems in the defensive backfield. SR
 

smlevin

Footballguy
I'm going to disagree with the first pick, premised on the fact that the Chargers trade down. As of now, I'm not convinced that they're convinced that Brees can get the job done. While Brees doesn't have to win the entire game, what he does have to do is manage the offense and make it at least look like the Chargers are a threat to throw the football. At this point, from the games I've seen him play, he has done neither.
They could take Ben at 3, if they want, or, as Herd pointed out - a good QB option will be there at their 2.01 pick - he maentioned Losman and Schaub.Trade down, get more picks, draft more needs, still have a shot at Roth - looks good to me.
 

Capella

CAPELLODINHO
I'd LOVE Jones to the Bucs...but I think this team has other issues other than RB...especially if they re-sign Jones.

The LB depth is going to be poor once Webster leaves and Rudd gets cut, and the team could certainly use some OL help.

Papers the other day had the coaches talking up the LB depth in this draft...and how the Bucs have none, so that wouldn't shock me.

But if Jones is there, they better take him.

Also, on Rivers...Kiper said he had a poor Senior Bowl...said he dropped, and was pushing throws downfield.

 
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Jason Wood

Zoo York
I'd LOVE Jones to the Bucs...but I think this team has other issues other than RB...especially if they re-sign Jones.

The LB depth is going to be poor once Webster leaves and Rudd gets cut, and the team could certainly use some OL help.

Papers the other day had the coaches talking up the LB depth in this draft...and how the Bucs have none, so that wouldn't shock me.

But if Jones is there, they better take him.

Also, on Rivers...Kiper said he had a poor Senior Bowl...said he dropped, and was pushing throws downfield.
Kiper said that after practices ended on Thursday, if you read Kiper (and Scouts Inc.) chat during and immediately following the game itself, they both admit that he solidified himself ahead of Losman as the QB3 and a first rounder. Cheers

 

Goat Herders

Footballguy
Everything I'm reading about Eli is that he's likely to make his brother look like Tim Hasselbeck.
Eli Manning has the tools to be a great QB, but try not to believe the hype too much. Peyton has (a) a stronger arm then Eli (b) a game-film addiction and (b) Marvin Harrison/Edge/Wayne/Clark. In other words, Eli has a chance to be a great NFL QB, which is all a 22 year old can ask for. Peyton is ALREADY a great NFL QB.

HERD

 

Goat Herders

Footballguy
Everything Ive seen says Eli is more mobile with a stronger arm
Being "less mobile" then Peyton would be akin to being bolted into the ground with railroad spikes. :D We shall see how the "arms race" plays out between the two of them.Thanks for your input.HERD
 
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Jason Wood

Zoo York
Both Mannings are prototypical in terms of arm strength, mechanics and physical dimensions, but it's unfair of anyone to ask Eli to be Manning. Manning is the best QB in a generation, well on his way to setting HOF caliber marks. Let's let Eli become a "good" NFL QB before we start comparing to the best in the league, regardless of whether they're his brother or not. :rolleyes:Cheers

 

BlueOnion

Footballguy
Personally I would be willing to sacrifice arm-strength and mobility for a passion for "game film" like Peyton Manning has. That truly is what seperates good quarterback prospects from proven NFL quarterbacks.The BlueOnion

 

Capella

CAPELLODINHO
I'd LOVE Jones to the Bucs...but I think this team has other issues other than RB...especially if they re-sign Jones.

The LB depth is going to be poor once Webster leaves and Rudd gets cut, and the team could certainly use some OL help.

Papers the other day had the coaches talking up the LB depth in this draft...and how the Bucs have none, so that wouldn't shock me.

But if Jones is there, they better take him.

Also, on Rivers...Kiper said he had a poor Senior Bowl...said he dropped, and was pushing throws downfield.
Kiper said that after practices ended on Thursday, if you read Kiper (and Scouts Inc.) chat during and immediately following the game itself, they both admit that he solidified himself ahead of Losman as the QB3 and a first rounder. Cheers
So they #### on him after a week of practice, and four years of games to look back on...then on the virtue of one game, move him back into the first round??? :confused: That's as indecisive as a woman. Not sure that's trustworthy analysis on ol' Mel's part.

 

Jason Wood

Zoo York
I'd LOVE Jones to the Bucs...but I think this team has other issues other than RB...especially if they re-sign Jones.

The LB depth is going to be poor once Webster leaves and Rudd gets cut, and the team could certainly use some OL help.

Papers the other day had the coaches talking up the LB depth in this draft...and how the Bucs have none, so that wouldn't shock me.

But if Jones is there, they better take him.

Also, on Rivers...Kiper said he had a poor Senior Bowl...said he dropped, and was pushing throws downfield.
Kiper said that after practices ended on Thursday, if you read Kiper (and Scouts Inc.) chat during and immediately following the game itself, they both admit that he solidified himself ahead of Losman as the QB3 and a first rounder. Cheers
So they #### on him after a week of practice, and four years of games to look back on...then on the virtue of one game, move him back into the first round??? :confused: That's as indecisive as a woman. Not sure that's trustworthy analysis on ol' Mel's part.
He wasn't the only one. The guys at Scouts Inc. have consistently maintained that Losman would be QB3, and continue to maintain that in their daily updates on the Senior Bowl practice (available via ESPN Insider subscription), and then backpedaled after the game. Both were surprised by Rivers touch on the deep ball and his release point (it was generally considered inconsistent during practice).Cheers

 

Goat Herders

Footballguy
I've had a hard time editing the original post, so I'll take some iinput...In correcting my error and putting David Pollack back in college, I have... - Bumped Dansby up to the Vikings as he is the best Defensive player left that could add to the Vikings.- Bumped Tubbs up to the Seahawks to add depth to the D-line- Don't know who that would give the Colts to draft????Thoughts?HERD

 

Capella

CAPELLODINHO
I'd LOVE Jones to the Bucs...but I think this team has other issues other than RB...especially if they re-sign Jones.

The LB depth is going to be poor once Webster leaves and Rudd gets cut, and the team could certainly use some OL help.

Papers the other day had the coaches talking up the LB depth in this draft...and how the Bucs have none, so that wouldn't shock me.

But if Jones is there, they better take him.

Also, on Rivers...Kiper said he had a poor Senior Bowl...said he dropped, and was pushing throws downfield.
Kiper said that after practices ended on Thursday, if you read Kiper (and Scouts Inc.) chat during and immediately following the game itself, they both admit that he solidified himself ahead of Losman as the QB3 and a first rounder. Cheers
So they #### on him after a week of practice, and four years of games to look back on...then on the virtue of one game, move him back into the first round??? :confused: That's as indecisive as a woman. Not sure that's trustworthy analysis on ol' Mel's part.
He wasn't the only one. The guys at Scouts Inc. have consistently maintained that Losman would be QB3, and continue to maintain that in their daily updates on the Senior Bowl practice (available via ESPN Insider subscription), and then backpedaled after the game. Both were surprised by Rivers touch on the deep ball and his release point (it was generally considered inconsistent during practice).Cheers
that's really lame...these guys have had plenty of time to have a rock-solid opinion on these guys...really can't believe one half of an exhibition game could change that.:remindernottosubscribetoMel:

 

smlevin

Footballguy
I've had a hard time editing the original post, so I'll take some iinput...In correcting my error and putting David Pollack back in college, I have... - Bumped Dansby up to the Vikings as he is the best Defensive player left that could add to the Vikings.- Bumped Tubbs up to the Seahawks to add depth to the D-line- Don't know who that would give the Colts to draft????Thoughts?HERD
Any LB, safety, or DT are needed by the Colts.Their lack of an athletic "sideline to sideline" LB was apparent in the run defense and they were susceptible up the middle in general without a clogging the middle DT. Freeney, and a middle LB, will excell with a huge run clogging, pocket collapsing DT.Defensively in the pass game - they were very soft up the middle to the TE, to the slot receiver, and in run stopping once the RB got through the line - looks like they still need a QB for the defense. In other words - a SS or MLB.
 

Marvelous

Footballguy
5. Washington - Kellen Winslow - Well, I had Winslow here when Spurrier was in charge, then changed my mind, and now I'm back on the 'Winslow to Washington' wagon. The pick makes sense as he can block and catch. He's also jsut too darn good to slip any further. The clincher for me was that EVERYTHING I have heard has Gibbs loving Winslow. Good enough for me.
Thanks for laying this out here and actually putting a lot of thought in it.As for the 'Skins. I'll be very disappointed if they take Winslow even if he ends up being the greatest TE in the history of the NFL. I still don't think they take him. I don't think Gibbs is making personnel decisions for one and I think Cerrato is happy to have him talk up a player he's not going to select as a smokescreen. I still think DL and possibly if Taylor is that great of a Safety then it wouldn't shock me to see them grab him, though it would probably shock most everyone else.
Gibbs will be making the personnel decisons. In interviews, he states its a team approach with Snyder and Cerrato. But Gibbs has also outlined what he is looking for in players: character, work ethic, talent (in that order).Note the character does not mean plain, vanilla guys. But it definately means team players and no me-first players.

I suspect the Redskins are going to identify the players they really want and possibly even draft them a little high to make sure they get them.

Does Winslow measure up on character? I am starting to think Sean Taylor could be the Redskin's pick. Anyone know about his character and work ethic?

 

Tony the Tiger

Footballguy
12. NY Jets - Kenechi Udeze - The way I hear it, the current defense, line included, isn't exactly dominating anyone despite having some talent. Udeze helps with the pass-rush and stopping the run; 2 things the Jets need some help with. They would have loved Roy Williams here, and Reggie doesn't quite grade out to be worth the selection, not with Rashaun Woods, Lee Evans, and/or Michael Jenkins lurking in round 2. Similarly, Udeze might not be the most pressing need based on position, but he's too good to pass up here.Herd, Good job as always. I'm not sure the Jets go defensive line again. They already have 3 first rounders on that D-Line (Ellis and Robertson as well as that bust Brian Thomas) plus another first round defensive end who will be moved to play rushing linebacker (its pretty settled that John Abraham will move to linebacker as long as he still gets paid like a DE). that is a lot of money to be paying on your defensive line.But even with that what the Jets really need is help at linebacker (Mo Lewis, Marvin Jones are almost definitely gone and Sam Cowart may not be far behind.) This could leave the Jets with only 2 viable linebackers, neither of whom have played the position extensively in the NFL (victor hobson and John Abraham). I'm not sure what the draft looks like at the LB posistion but I have to believe they will address their LB corp, a lot of the JETS troubles happened b/c none of their DE's help much in stopping the run and the current linebackers are way to slow. I see the Jets being forced to take a LB in this draft.

 

Goat Herders

Footballguy
Does Winslow measure up on character? I am starting to think Sean Taylor could be the Redskin's pick. Anyone know about his character and work ethic?
Best I can tell, Winslow's only character flaws are that he works his ### off and expects the same from others, wants to win on every play of every game, wants to block the hell out of everybody, wants to catch every pass, and wants to go to "battle" with his teammates, because "its all about this U."Aside from a poor choice of words by a young man, exactly what character flaws does Winslow have?HERD
 

rifkin

Footballguy
Gibbs will be making the personnel decisons. In interviews, he states its a team approach with Snyder and Cerrato.
I hope this just means he will have input into personnel decisions but Cerrato has final word. I really would like for Gibbs to coach and have some input on who he wants but leave the bulk of the personnel to Cerrato.I'll take it as a sign that Gibbs either has final say or more if Winslow is taken on draft day by the 'Skins.
 
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smlevin

Footballguy
Best I can tell, Winslow's only character flaws are that he works his ### off and expects the same from others, wants to win on every play of every game, wants to block the hell out of everybody, wants to catch every pass, and wants to go to "battle" with his teammates, because "its all about this U."Aside from a poor choice of words by a young man, exactly what character flaws does Winslow have?HERD
I am a UM fan, so I can say this - character flaws are the same as Wilfork and Taylor - he's a Hurricane and always thinks he's the best.BTW - thanks for coming up with a mock that puts three 'canes in the top-10. That's how I see those three going, too, unless Washington trades down.I happen to agree, though, that there is no way Washington passes on Taylor in the first for Kellen Winslow.
 

Marvelous

Footballguy
I hope this just means he will have input into personnel decisions but Cerrato has final word. I really would like for Gibbs to coach and have some input on who he wants but leave the bulk of the personnel to Cerrato.I'll take it as a sign that Gibbs either has final say or more if Winslow is taken on draft day by the 'Skins.
I think Gibbs' managerial style will be more by consensus that dictating. Gibbs states that the dynamics of the front office decisions still needs to be worked out. But Gibbs was also hired to set the course for the organization.Based on what I have seen, if Gibbs feels he strongly needs/wants a player, he is going to get it. Also, his criteria that he has laid out is pretty clear and I think under setting the course for the organization.I don't think they will ever say it, but I think Gibbs have final say over personnel. Note that on Gibbs' coaching staff, Gibbs laid out who he wanted and what he thought it would take to sign the coach. Snyder ok'ed every move and has resulted in the most expensive coaching staff in the NFL. That is how I see a lot of this working out.
 

aaronr28

Moderator
But even with that what the Jets really need is help at linebacker (Mo Lewis, Marvin Jones are almost definitely gone and Sam Cowart may not be far behind.) This could leave the Jets with only 2 viable linebackers, neither of whom have played the position extensively in the NFL (victor hobson and John Abraham). I'm not sure what the draft looks like at the LB posistion but I have to believe they will address their LB corp, a lot of the JETS troubles happened b/c none of their DE's help much in stopping the run and the current linebackers are way to slow. I see the Jets being forced to take a LB in this draft.
Where is Sam Cowart going? He's ONLY 3 months older than Ray Lewis and should be a rock for the Jets for some time.I agree LB is more of a need for the Jets than DE, but Udeze might be too good to pass up. It would protect them in case they are forced to let Ellis and/or Abraham bolt via free agency. They could still add a WR and LB in the next couple rounds.If they want to go LB, I'm guessing one of the Miami guys would be a good choice.As a Bills fan, I'd be very psyched if they get a choice between Udeze and Will Smith with the #13 pick. I can't really imagine two impact DEs dropping that far, but as long as the Bills get one I'll be pleased. QB, WR, and FS should be a strong consideration for them in rounds 2-4.
 

Marvelous

Footballguy
Best I can tell, Winslow's only character flaws are that he works his ### off and expects the same from others, wants to win on every play of every game, wants to block the hell out of everybody, wants to catch every pass, and wants to go to "battle" with his teammates, because "its all about this U."Aside from a poor choice of words by a young man, exactly what character flaws does Winslow have?HERD
Based on that, Winslow sounds like a good fit. Did Gibbs coach Kellen Winsow in San Diego? I was wondering if that could increase the chances of Gibbs selecting Winslow Jr.Also, I could see Gibbs taking Winslow. Getting a special TE can give an offense a lot of possibilties and Gibbs would love that.
 
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falconeyed

Footballguy
1 - Eli: I've read in several places that Eli is considered to have a stronger arm than Peyton. Of course, I can't find where I read this at the time I need it. With the hype ... it's really no different than every draft class ... the top couple of QB's get anointed as the reincarnation of Johnny U. Coupled with the fact that it's rare that a first round QB makes an impact with the team that drafted him, it certainly would seem like draft day expectations are rarely satisfied. However, it's still damn tough to pass up a potential franchise QB, especially if you don't have one already. If I had the choice of having Gallery / Losman or Eli ... I'd have to take Eli. Due to a sickeningly poor season, I'm drafting at 1.01 and Eli's looking like my man.2 - Kellen: Probably heresy to spend a first round dynasty pick on a TE, but this guy might be the one. I'm not that familiar with Gibbs's use of TEs in the past, but based on hearsay it sounds like a critical position. As for the Redskins, it sounds like they couldn't go wrong with him at 1.05. I'm thinking that Trung won't pan out as a tailback, which makes me kind of think that the Skins should go after a RB, but is there one worth it at the 1.05? I don't think so.

 

Steelers4Life

Footballguy
I'm starting to believe that if the Steelers keep their #11 pick and don't address the RB situation through free agency, they'll take either Kevin Jones or Steven Jackson with the pick. I'm ALL for it if that's what they do.There's an article in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette today about Jerome Bettis, and all it does is state his obvious intention to do whatever it takes to stick with the Steelers for one more year. He makes a few references to tutoring a young, 1st round RB in the article, and it sort of leads me to believe that the Steelers have told him of their plans to draft a top notch RB early on. Because he specifically mentions a 1st round RB and not just a young RB, it might just mean something. Amos is as good as gone, so they have no one who can carry the load in the future, and I for one consider it their most pressing need by far.QB of the future is certainly an issue, but Maddox can most definitely play well enough behind a good offensive line and with the support of a good running game. Maybe a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick for Henson is a possibility, but a team with as many holes as the Steelers have isn't in a position to trade UP and sacrifice more good picks. If the line is healthy, it'll be much better next year, but I don't see them heading into next season with the same right tackles as this year. Because Andrews figures to be gone by #11, tackle probably won't be an option. The other 4 spots on the line are filled with good young players, several of whom struggled with injuries in 2003.And as for cornerback, it's an area of need. However, LeBeau virtually came out and said that Chad Scott would be returning as the starter next year opposite Townsend, and Ike Taylor showed some promise as a rookie. He said the personnel is still there to be a dominant defense, but he didn't like the way Tim Lewis ran it.Just a homer's opinion.

 
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Marvelous

Footballguy
I'm not that familiar with Gibbs's use of TEs in the past, but based on hearsay it sounds like a critical position. As for the Redskins, it sounds like they couldn't go wrong with him at 1.05. I'm thinking that Trung won't pan out as a tailback, which makes me kind of think that the Skins should go after a RB, but is there one worth it at the 1.05? I don't think so.
In the early days, Gibbs had a blocking TE and a receiving TE. Later on, when he had 3 good wrs, TEs were more for blocking.It really depends on the personnel. However, if Gibbs has a premier TE, he will design plays to maximize his effectiveness.Basically, if I am the Redskins with the 5th pick, if I can get an impact player who could be a star/HOF, I have to go for him, regardless of position. 5 years from now, no one is going to be thinking it was right to pass on a dominant player because Trung Canidate couldn't cut it or DL was the biggest hole. I can fill these holes through free agency (and most of them will be filled through free agency before the draft.)
 

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